After Round 15, with eight weeks of the season still to go, we already have our eight finalists virtually set in stone. In some order, the current lineup of Hawthorn (11-3), GWS (10-4), Geelong (10-4), Sydney (10-4), Adelaide (10-4), Western (10-4), North Melbourne (10-4), and West Coast (9-5) have been the teams in the top eight spots, and with Port Adelaide the only challenger within three games of them at 7-7, there's no reason to think that they won't be the eight teams battling in September.
Here's my projected finishing order, mostly based on how easy the schedules are between now and the first of September:
1 GWS (between 16-18 wins) 18-4
2 Hawthorn (between 15-19 wins) 17-5
3 Adelaide (between 16-18 wins) 17-5
4 Geelong (between 14-18 wins) 17-5
5 Western (between 15-18 wins) 17-5
6 Sydney (between 15-18 wins) 16-6
7 West Coast (between 12-15 wins) 15-7
8 North Melbourne (between 10-16 wins) 14-8
Meanwhile, Port, Melbourne, St. Kilda, Carlton, Collingwood, and Richmond are all battling around 6-8, hoping to be around should West Coast or the Kangaroos fall apart completely. At the bottom, Gold Coast is finally starting to get healthy and may break a few hearts in July and August as they play above their 4-10 record, while Fremantle (3-11), Brisbane and Essendon (both 1-13) long for the season to end.
In the Player of the Year race, Following Football has Geelong's Patrick Dangerfield head and shoulders above the field, with only the Bondi Billionaire, Sydney forward Lance "Buddy" Franklin in his rear view mirror. Sydney teammates Dan Hannebury and Luke Parker are excelling, as are GWS' Heath Shaw, Danger's running mate Joel Selwood, and Melbourne mountain man and fan fave Max Gawn.
Showing posts with label AFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFL. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
AFL update
Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...
North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.
In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).
On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:
North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.
In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).
On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:
| Lance Franklin | SYD | 148 | |||||
| Patrick Dangerfield | GEEL | 146 | |||||
| Luke Parker | SYD | 126 | |||||
| Jarrad Waite | NMK | 101 | |||||
| Tom J Lynch | GCS | 98 | |||||
| Joel Selwood | GEEL | 97 | |||||
| Dan Hannebury | SYD | 92 | |||||
| Max Gawn | MEL | 92 | |||||
| Lachie Hunter | WB | 90 | |||||
| Rory Sloane | ADE | 90 | |||||
Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!
As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...).
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
All-in? Or "rebuilding"?
Here's a great article by the always excellent Damian Barrett of afl.com.au that gives superb thumbnail sketches of all eighteen teams in the Australian Football League in 2016.
ALL IN, ALL THE TIME? Geelong and Sydney, maybe Hawthorn and West Coast in recent years.
ALL IN FOR RIGHT NOW, ANYWAY? North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Western are all in this year, at least. The NM Kangaroos, at least, are working with a pretty good number of thirty-somethings (including the immortal Brent Harvey), so they're in it for a pretty short window...possibly.
BUILDING TOWARDS THE NOW...OR THE NEAR NOW? Greater Western Sydney has gone 18th, 18th, 16th, and 11th in their four years...and suddenly, they MAY (repeat: may) be already in their championship window. If so? They could be there a while.
BUILDING FOR THE (UN)FORSEEABLE FUTURE? Barrett has no mercy for the teams which use the excuse of "rebuilding" as a euphemism for "we don't have the horses to compete", regardless of whether that's their fault or not. (His point, of course, is that it usually IS.) That's Brisbane and Carlton (not much choice in either case, but it's going to be a while...), Melbourne and St. Kilda (who each started a couple of years ago, and darned if they aren't making progress!), and (according to the team suddenly) Collingwood, the "Yankees/Man U" of the AFL, who basically screwed up the present and decided to call it a rebuilding project. Yeah...
BUILT FOR THE NOW OR RECENT PAST, BUT... Woe to Fremantle (the most sudden collapse around), Port Adelaide and Richmond (the Tigers edged into second by losing to the Power last week), and ... well, that's three too many. These three are in trouble, with no real easy way out.
EXTRANEOUS CASES: There's Essendon, who has the WADA drug suspensions over its head. They could be in any of the above categories next year...we'll have to wait and see. And Gold Coast was supposed to be following GWS' trajectory a year in advance, except for scandals, injury plagues, and financial brou-ha-has. Could go any which way, depending on how the terrible trinity goes.
So, who fits which category in the NFL? The CFL? Let us know what you think!
ALL IN, ALL THE TIME? Geelong and Sydney, maybe Hawthorn and West Coast in recent years.
ALL IN FOR RIGHT NOW, ANYWAY? North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Western are all in this year, at least. The NM Kangaroos, at least, are working with a pretty good number of thirty-somethings (including the immortal Brent Harvey), so they're in it for a pretty short window...possibly.
BUILDING TOWARDS THE NOW...OR THE NEAR NOW? Greater Western Sydney has gone 18th, 18th, 16th, and 11th in their four years...and suddenly, they MAY (repeat: may) be already in their championship window. If so? They could be there a while.
BUILDING FOR THE (UN)FORSEEABLE FUTURE? Barrett has no mercy for the teams which use the excuse of "rebuilding" as a euphemism for "we don't have the horses to compete", regardless of whether that's their fault or not. (His point, of course, is that it usually IS.) That's Brisbane and Carlton (not much choice in either case, but it's going to be a while...), Melbourne and St. Kilda (who each started a couple of years ago, and darned if they aren't making progress!), and (according to the team suddenly) Collingwood, the "Yankees/Man U" of the AFL, who basically screwed up the present and decided to call it a rebuilding project. Yeah...
BUILT FOR THE NOW OR RECENT PAST, BUT... Woe to Fremantle (the most sudden collapse around), Port Adelaide and Richmond (the Tigers edged into second by losing to the Power last week), and ... well, that's three too many. These three are in trouble, with no real easy way out.
EXTRANEOUS CASES: There's Essendon, who has the WADA drug suspensions over its head. They could be in any of the above categories next year...we'll have to wait and see. And Gold Coast was supposed to be following GWS' trajectory a year in advance, except for scandals, injury plagues, and financial brou-ha-has. Could go any which way, depending on how the terrible trinity goes.
So, who fits which category in the NFL? The CFL? Let us know what you think!
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Six games in, and we're finished already...
Not literally finished, but seemingly. The Australian Footy season is barely one-quarter finished, and there's four months to go before finals, but I would wager something significant that the current top 8 will be there at the end as well, barring major injury issues debilitating one of the teams (Western is the most vulnerable at the moment, having already lost three key starters):
1. North Melbourne Kangaroos (6-0, 125%), beating Western by two goals Friday night.
2. Geelong Cats (5-1, 174%), after a 120 thrashing of Gold Coast Saturday.
3. Sydney Swans (5-1, 144%), challenged this week by an up and coming Brisbane Lions team.
4. Western Bulldogs (4-2, 156%), losers to the Roos and by three to the three-time champs.
5. GWS Giants (4-2, 141%), who stamped their certificate with a 75-pt annihilation of Hawthorn!
6. West Coast Eagles (4-2, 130%), but they have to learn to beat someone in the top 8 to threaten.
7. Adelaide Crows (4-2, 122%), easy winners over pitiful Fremantle this week.
8. Hawthorn Hawks (4-2, 92%), whipped by the newbies this week but still the champ.
The next four teams are the bridesmaids, with potential but not the firepower yet to consistently challenge any of the teams above them. Sometimes they can win...but not often enough to make finals:
9. Melbourne Demons (3-3, 102%), erratic but growing in capability.
10. Gold Coast Suns (3-3, 95%), injury bitten AGAIN, third year in a row.
11. Port Adelaide Power (3-3, 90%), false hope - three wins against whipping boys.
12. St. Kilda Saints (2-4, 89%), erratic but improving quickly!
Finally, there's the bottom six - someone here may leap into the tier above this (Brisbane?), but they have NO shot at finals in 2016:
13. Collingwood Magpies (2-4, 79%), beating Essendon isn't a badge of honor, guys!
14. Carlton Blues (2-4, 74%), see previous comment.
15. Richmond Tigers (1-5, 75%), expected to be 5-1 after being in finals three years in a row...
16. Brisbane Lions (1-5, 71%), the most promising of the six; took Sydney within a goal last night.
17. Essendon Bombers (1-5, 62%), expected NOTHING this year, with half the team banished!
18. Fremantle Dockers (0-6, 69%), an unreal fall from grace for a team that WON the home-and-away season last year! They've already matched their loss total for all of 2015! At season's beginning, the game this coming weekend where GWS comes to Fremantle was about a 26 point Docker favorite; now, it's 26 points to GWS' favor. They've gotten here legitimately, too: they look like a last place team on the field.
1. North Melbourne Kangaroos (6-0, 125%), beating Western by two goals Friday night.
2. Geelong Cats (5-1, 174%), after a 120 thrashing of Gold Coast Saturday.
3. Sydney Swans (5-1, 144%), challenged this week by an up and coming Brisbane Lions team.
4. Western Bulldogs (4-2, 156%), losers to the Roos and by three to the three-time champs.
5. GWS Giants (4-2, 141%), who stamped their certificate with a 75-pt annihilation of Hawthorn!
6. West Coast Eagles (4-2, 130%), but they have to learn to beat someone in the top 8 to threaten.
7. Adelaide Crows (4-2, 122%), easy winners over pitiful Fremantle this week.
8. Hawthorn Hawks (4-2, 92%), whipped by the newbies this week but still the champ.
The next four teams are the bridesmaids, with potential but not the firepower yet to consistently challenge any of the teams above them. Sometimes they can win...but not often enough to make finals:
9. Melbourne Demons (3-3, 102%), erratic but growing in capability.
10. Gold Coast Suns (3-3, 95%), injury bitten AGAIN, third year in a row.
11. Port Adelaide Power (3-3, 90%), false hope - three wins against whipping boys.
12. St. Kilda Saints (2-4, 89%), erratic but improving quickly!
Finally, there's the bottom six - someone here may leap into the tier above this (Brisbane?), but they have NO shot at finals in 2016:
13. Collingwood Magpies (2-4, 79%), beating Essendon isn't a badge of honor, guys!
14. Carlton Blues (2-4, 74%), see previous comment.
15. Richmond Tigers (1-5, 75%), expected to be 5-1 after being in finals three years in a row...
16. Brisbane Lions (1-5, 71%), the most promising of the six; took Sydney within a goal last night.
17. Essendon Bombers (1-5, 62%), expected NOTHING this year, with half the team banished!
18. Fremantle Dockers (0-6, 69%), an unreal fall from grace for a team that WON the home-and-away season last year! They've already matched their loss total for all of 2015! At season's beginning, the game this coming weekend where GWS comes to Fremantle was about a 26 point Docker favorite; now, it's 26 points to GWS' favor. They've gotten here legitimately, too: they look like a last place team on the field.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Update: South of the Equator
It's five rounds into the home-and-away season for the AFL, and the North Melbourne Kangaroos are the sole remaining undefeated team on the ladder. Friday night (4 am Friday morning, Idaho time), they have to face the second place Western Bulldogs, on their mutual home grounds at Etihad Stadium (the only covered, artificial turf stadium in the league), where the Doggies can run like mad and usually race past their opponents (my wager is that there's going to be zero loss-less teams in three days). Should be as great a game as last Friday night's classic, where Hawthorn won their third straight three-point victory, 112-109 over the Adelaide Crows in a thriller.
Right now, it looks like there are seven teams who are (barring disaster) going to be the definitive favorites to make the eight-team finals: the four named above, plus the Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, and the Geelong Cats. The eighth spot, were I a betting man, will come down to a race between the two newest clubs, the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants, neither of whom have ever made finals. (And GWS looks much more likely, with the injuries Gold Coast is piling up again after last year's injury debacle!) That would be an AMAZING finals month of September! The tenth possibility, surprisingly, is Melbourne's Demons, who haven't sniffed playoffs in a decade, but are 3-2 and looking strong - not as strong as the above teams, but...you know, it's possible. Their rating gain of 12.6 ELO points is second in the competition, behind only GWS's ridiculous 23.4.
On the other end of the scale, in a phenomenal turn, the only winless team in the AFL is last year's top seeded team, the Fremantle Dockers, with essentially the same personnel. Now, they're starting to rack up some ailing players as well, but that's not the excuse for losing five straight, including a four point loss Sunday to the other (previously) winless team, the Carlton Blues, who were expected to be poor this year in a rebuilding effort. The five teams who have fallen on hard times this season are Fremantle (0-5), Essendon (1-4 - expected, having lost 12 top players in the WADA drug ruling), Collingwood (2-3, with wins over Essendon this weekend and a lucky win by 2 over a weak team), Richmond (1-4) and Port Adelaide (2-3), two teams expected to play finals but who play each other this weekend to see which one's falling faster...
Right now, it looks like there are seven teams who are (barring disaster) going to be the definitive favorites to make the eight-team finals: the four named above, plus the Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, and the Geelong Cats. The eighth spot, were I a betting man, will come down to a race between the two newest clubs, the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants, neither of whom have ever made finals. (And GWS looks much more likely, with the injuries Gold Coast is piling up again after last year's injury debacle!) That would be an AMAZING finals month of September! The tenth possibility, surprisingly, is Melbourne's Demons, who haven't sniffed playoffs in a decade, but are 3-2 and looking strong - not as strong as the above teams, but...you know, it's possible. Their rating gain of 12.6 ELO points is second in the competition, behind only GWS's ridiculous 23.4.
On the other end of the scale, in a phenomenal turn, the only winless team in the AFL is last year's top seeded team, the Fremantle Dockers, with essentially the same personnel. Now, they're starting to rack up some ailing players as well, but that's not the excuse for losing five straight, including a four point loss Sunday to the other (previously) winless team, the Carlton Blues, who were expected to be poor this year in a rebuilding effort. The five teams who have fallen on hard times this season are Fremantle (0-5), Essendon (1-4 - expected, having lost 12 top players in the WADA drug ruling), Collingwood (2-3, with wins over Essendon this weekend and a lucky win by 2 over a weak team), Richmond (1-4) and Port Adelaide (2-3), two teams expected to play finals but who play each other this weekend to see which one's falling faster...
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Aussie Rules update
Hello from down under! As we get ready to tip Week 4 of the AFL footy season, here's where the teams stand after three games:
3 and 0) Scoreboard!... Gold Coast Suns (the big surprise, but then they've had an easy schedule so far), Sydney Swans (looked strong three weeks in a row - Luke Parker leads our Player of the Year voting, and Buddy Franklin is scoring like Steph Curry again!), and North Melbourne Kangaroos (first time they won game ONE, let alone the first three, in ten years! But they're strong enough to have earned those wins).
2 and 1) A series of teams who are either imperfect or ran into a bad week or a better team or... Hawthorn Hawks (no surprise - tough wins against West Coast and the Bulldogs earn them their cred back), West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs (been great and each lost a tough game to the Hawks), Geelong Cats (looked great all season; GWS bullied them in a bad week), Adelaide and Port Adelaide (the Cats are the better of the two, but Port's had two easy games besides getting whooped by their cross-town rivals).
1 and 2) Teams which have their teeth clenched right now... GWS Giants (an up and down team), Melbourne Demons (ditto - no bad losses), Collingwood Magpies and Richmond Tigers (weaker than expected), Essendon Bombers (upset the Dees somehow in week 2), and St. Kilda Saints (upended the Pies in Nick Riewoldt's 300th game!).
0 and 3) Exactly where they deserve to be, although all show signs of a pulse, at least...Brisbane Lions (don't expect more than a few wins), Carlton Blues (but number one draft pick Jacob Weitering is the real deal), and last year's minor premiers, the Fremantle Dockers (who don't seem to understand that you have to score more than five goals a game to win in this league. The walls may be caving in if they can't scare up a win soon...)
So, this week, some easy calls: West Coast over Richmond Friday; Geelong over Essendon, Hawthorn over St. Kilda, Gold Coast over Brisbane (but in a rivalry? Never know...), Western over Carlton, and on Sunday expect North Melbourne to add to Fremantle's misery. As for the question mark games, I'm thinking GWS gets over the line against Port Adelaide, I'll take the Adelaide Crows to upset Sydney, and by flipping a coin I've got Melbourne nipping Collingwood (they show more positive signs).
Right now, my record is 20-7; I'm sitting in the top 10% of tipsters in the AFL competition, and there's a long way to go...
3 and 0) Scoreboard!... Gold Coast Suns (the big surprise, but then they've had an easy schedule so far), Sydney Swans (looked strong three weeks in a row - Luke Parker leads our Player of the Year voting, and Buddy Franklin is scoring like Steph Curry again!), and North Melbourne Kangaroos (first time they won game ONE, let alone the first three, in ten years! But they're strong enough to have earned those wins).
2 and 1) A series of teams who are either imperfect or ran into a bad week or a better team or... Hawthorn Hawks (no surprise - tough wins against West Coast and the Bulldogs earn them their cred back), West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs (been great and each lost a tough game to the Hawks), Geelong Cats (looked great all season; GWS bullied them in a bad week), Adelaide and Port Adelaide (the Cats are the better of the two, but Port's had two easy games besides getting whooped by their cross-town rivals).
1 and 2) Teams which have their teeth clenched right now... GWS Giants (an up and down team), Melbourne Demons (ditto - no bad losses), Collingwood Magpies and Richmond Tigers (weaker than expected), Essendon Bombers (upset the Dees somehow in week 2), and St. Kilda Saints (upended the Pies in Nick Riewoldt's 300th game!).
0 and 3) Exactly where they deserve to be, although all show signs of a pulse, at least...Brisbane Lions (don't expect more than a few wins), Carlton Blues (but number one draft pick Jacob Weitering is the real deal), and last year's minor premiers, the Fremantle Dockers (who don't seem to understand that you have to score more than five goals a game to win in this league. The walls may be caving in if they can't scare up a win soon...)
So, this week, some easy calls: West Coast over Richmond Friday; Geelong over Essendon, Hawthorn over St. Kilda, Gold Coast over Brisbane (but in a rivalry? Never know...), Western over Carlton, and on Sunday expect North Melbourne to add to Fremantle's misery. As for the question mark games, I'm thinking GWS gets over the line against Port Adelaide, I'll take the Adelaide Crows to upset Sydney, and by flipping a coin I've got Melbourne nipping Collingwood (they show more positive signs).
Right now, my record is 20-7; I'm sitting in the top 10% of tipsters in the AFL competition, and there's a long way to go...
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Aussie Footy update
The first weekend went down with every home team winning, even the three games that many tipped the other way. The BIG winners were the Sydney Swans (annihilated a listless Collingwood team that had looked good in pre-season), Western Bulldogs, who somehow made the reigning minor premier Fremantle club look like beginners, shutting them out entirely until halfway through the second quarter; and Geelong, who defeated the three-time defenders Hawthorn with room to spare. The West Coast Eagles looked good, scoring 160+ against Brisbane (who hit 100 themselves), Gold Coast against Essendon (but everyone will look good against the Dons this year), and the other winners and frankly some of the losers: Richmond, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne all won; but Carlton and St. Kilda both looked better than expected in their losses, and GWS and Adelaide came close to winning their matches.
The top players of the first week, according to our combination of all sorts of different rating and voting systems in Aussie land, were these six men:
1. Robbie Grey (Port Adelaide) - 35 pts
1. Josh Kennedy (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Nic Naitanui (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Luke Parker (Sydney) - 35 pts
5. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) - 34 pts
6. Jake Stringer (Western) - 30 pts
In the coming week, every road team last week is a home team this week, so we've got nine 1-0 teams travelling to nine 0-1 teams (understanding some of them share the MCG or some other stadium, so "travel" is sometimes figurative):
Richmond @ Collingwood (take Richmond +7.5)
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide (they share a stadium, and they're about equally good)
Melbourne @ Essendon (bet against Essendon every game this year until they become respectable.)
North Melbourne @ Brisbane (Kangaroos should win)
Western Bulldogs @ St. Kilda (in Jack Riewoldt's 300th game with the Saints)
Gold Coast @ Fremantle (hard to believe that Freo won't come back and win)
Geelong @ GWS (Geelong should win, but GWS needs to make a good showing)
West Coast @ Hawthorn (rematch of the Grand Final; most think WC will get a measure of revenge)
Sydney @ Carlton (again, hard to see even an improved Carlton making a game of this).
The top players of the first week, according to our combination of all sorts of different rating and voting systems in Aussie land, were these six men:
1. Robbie Grey (Port Adelaide) - 35 pts
1. Josh Kennedy (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Nic Naitanui (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Luke Parker (Sydney) - 35 pts
5. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) - 34 pts
6. Jake Stringer (Western) - 30 pts
In the coming week, every road team last week is a home team this week, so we've got nine 1-0 teams travelling to nine 0-1 teams (understanding some of them share the MCG or some other stadium, so "travel" is sometimes figurative):
Richmond @ Collingwood (take Richmond +7.5)
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide (they share a stadium, and they're about equally good)
Melbourne @ Essendon (bet against Essendon every game this year until they become respectable.)
North Melbourne @ Brisbane (Kangaroos should win)
Western Bulldogs @ St. Kilda (in Jack Riewoldt's 300th game with the Saints)
Gold Coast @ Fremantle (hard to believe that Freo won't come back and win)
Geelong @ GWS (Geelong should win, but GWS needs to make a good showing)
West Coast @ Hawthorn (rematch of the Grand Final; most think WC will get a measure of revenge)
Sydney @ Carlton (again, hard to see even an improved Carlton making a game of this).
Monday, March 21, 2016
Australian Footy starts this Thursday!
Richmond and Carlton start the season off with their traditional opening night game on Thursday night (4 am MDT here in the States, 6 am on the east coast, 3 on the west).
Here's a great article that simply lists the likely opening day rosters and general trends for each of the eighteen teams in the Australian Football League for 2016 (with the exception of two expansion teams - Gold Coast in 2010 and GWS in 2011 - the same teams for twenty consecutive seasons!)
Here's a great article that simply lists the likely opening day rosters and general trends for each of the eighteen teams in the Australian Football League for 2016 (with the exception of two expansion teams - Gold Coast in 2010 and GWS in 2011 - the same teams for twenty consecutive seasons!)
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
What would YOU have done?
Here's the story from AFL.com.au about the pre-season closer last week where Richmond chose to play 15 (rather than 18) players during the fourth quarter of an exhibition game after a slough of injuries had decimated his team and he had no bench to work with for the last quarter and a half or so:
RICHMOND has escaped sanction for fielding just 15 players in the final quarter of its NAB Challenge hit-out against Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium last Thursday night.
Tigers coach Damien Hardwick asked the League during the game whether the match could be called off early as the club's injury toll mounted.
AFL football operations manager Mark Evans met with Tigers football boss Dan Richardson on Tuesday to discuss the situation and the club's obligation to fans and the broadcaster.
"I'm happy to leave it at that," Evans told RSN927 on Wednesday morning.
"In fact, I think the internal discussions have been very good and very well considered.
"We've all agreed the time-honoured way of parking a player in the goal square, if you wanted to, is a better outcome."
Evans said he understood why the Tigers made the inquiry to the League with round one fast approaching.
"I think there was a split decision to start removing players from the field. It was then pointed out that that's not we were looking for," Evans said.
"Dan Richardson and I had a discussion about this yesterday and he provided all the implications as to what they were dealing with at the time.
"I accept that was difficult for them, but equally they've accepted there were other ways of doing things."
The Tigers players dropped like nine-pins through the game with injuries to Shane Edwards (collarbone), Shaun Grigg (thumb), Reece Conca (hamstring) and Jacob Townsend (concussion) amplifying Hardwick's frustration.
Hardwick revealed post-match he had asked for the game to be cut short in the last 10 minutes.
That request was denied by the AFL, which then asked the Tigers to field a full team for the remainder of the game.
What would you have done? Let us know in the comments!
Saturday, March 12, 2016
2016 Australian Footy League predictions (guaranteed wrong or your money back!)
After laying out the strengths and weaknesses, tendencies and trends of each team, I ran a simulated season using the 2016 fixture, and here’s what I’m predicting for the 2016 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (2nd on the ladder at
17-5, win Grand Final). The Hawks
are here at the top until someone proves they can knock them off. And there’s
nothing in their form or roster that gives a reason to doubt that four straight
is possible, even likely. [Last year: 16-6,
158%, 3rd on ladder, GF champion. Current rating: 84.9]
2. Fremantle Dockers (1st on the ladder at
18-4, lose Grand Final) With Nat
Fyfe at the top of his game, if Harley Bennell is the key addition they
think he is – prove it, Harley! – they’ll run through the regular home-and-away
again, but they still can’t beat the Hawks in October at the MCG. [Last year: 17-5, 119%, 1st on the ladder,
prelim finalists. Current rating: 57.6]
3. Geelong Cats (3rd on the ladder at
15-7, prelim finalists) Paddy
Dangerfield and the speed of the new wave of young Cats will pull them through
games they wore out in last year. [Last year:
11-9-2, 101%, 10th place. Current rating: 52.4]
4. West Coast Eagles (5th on the ladder at
14-8, prelim finalists) No reason
to think they can’t beat any team below them in a finals situation with their
talent and experience, but not Freo or Hawthorn this year. [Last year: 16-5-1, 148%, lost in GF. Current rating
75.5]
5. Greater Western Sydney
Giants (4th
on the ladder at 15-7; semi-finalists) This is the year that they come through big time. Only a lack of
playoff experience will keep them from advancing farther than two losses and
out after the double chance. On paper, this team has very few weaknesses. [Last year: 11-11,
99%, 11th place. Current rating: 40.5]
6. Richmond Tigers (7th on the ladder at 14-8;
semi-finalists) Progress – the Tigers win their first game at North Melbourne
in finals this year, but Geelong at home proves too much. Still, another solid
season, their first finals win: things continue to look good for Tiger Nation. [Last year: 15-7, 123%, elimination finalists.
Current rating: 65.0]
7. North Melbourne Kangaroos (6th on the ladder at
14-8, qualifying finalists) Another
solid season for the Kangas, but age will catch up with them late in the
season. Except for Brent Harvey, who will pass game 418 and then reveal he’s
actually an android sent from the future. [Last
year: 13-9, 107%, prelim finalists. Current rating: 64.5]
8. Western Bulldogs (8th on the ladder at 13-9 plus
percentage; qualifying finalists) Couldn’t understand why everyone thought this budding young
team could possibly fall back, until I ran the simulation and realized what a
difficult schedule they have. They’ll have to rely on Freo relaxing in round 23
to secure this last spot. [Last year:
14-8, 115%, elimination finalists. Current rating: 58.9]
9. Sydney Swans (9th place, 13-9 with lower percentage than WB) No Goodes, no Jetta, Buddy
could very well be on the downside, and Isaac Heeney can’t be the only young
talent on the team. Too slow to catch teams like Western. [Last year: 16-6, 127%, semi-finalists. Current
rating: 65.6]
10. Adelaide Crows (10th place, 11-11
plus percentage) The loss of
Dangerfield will hurt more than the Crows want to admit. All the trauma from
Phil Walsh’s death last year will catch up with them this year, just as
Essendon found out two years ago. [Last year: 13-8-1, 116%, semi-finalists. Current rating:
61.2]
11. Melbourne Demons (11th place, 11-11) This may have been the biggest surprise in
the simulation. Melbourne many not make finals this year, but after a five-game
win streak in this run-thru, they were 6-4 and sitting pretty. Three losses in
a row on the road in July may doom those chances, but Demons supporters will
take .500 this year! [Last year: 7-15, 77%, 13th place. Current
rating: 30.8]
12. Port Adelaide Power (12th place, 8-14 plus percentage) The Power are much
more likely to look like they did the last half of ’15 than the first half of
’14. The speed and cohesiveness are just gone. [Last
year: 12-10, 107%, 9th place. Current rating: 59.6]
13. Gold Coast Suns (13th place, 8-14) Man-o-man, wouldn’t I like
to see them make finals someday soon? But the injury bug’s already started:
David Swallow’s gone for the first half of the year, and there’s no real sign
that things are going to be any different this year. If Gary Ablett Jr. stays
healthy and at the top of his game, they could make a charge towards 8th
place, but they’re not going to do any real damage. Interesting fact: for the
last eight years, there has always been a team who jumped from 14th
or lower to make finals the next season. If that happens again, I’m betting
it’s Gold Coast. [Last year:
4-17-1, 73%, 16th place. Current rating: 31.2]
14. Collingwood Magpies (14th place, 7-15 plus
percentage) Start booing now, Pie
fans. Then explain why you have optimism this year. Explain what’s changed from
the team that’s gone 2-9 since midseason last year. Why are they any better
than the team that faded out of finals contention the past two years? *the
silence is deafening* [Last year: 10-12, 106%,
12th place. Current rating: 42.8]
15. St. Kilda Saints (15th place, 7-15). Yes, Saints nation, we were all impressed
that you managed six wins last year when some thought you wouldn’t win any. And
your young talent will show some positive signs this year. But that doesn’t
translate to wins in the first year – ask GWS. It’s 2017 you’re aiming
for. [Last year: 6-15-1, 78%, 14th
place. Current rating: 31.0]
16. Brisbane Lions (16th place, 6-16). Young, eager, excited about playing for Brisbane,
which hasn’t been the case for a few years. This is going to be a fun team to
watch develop. Not one that will win very often, but one that will be
fun to watch. And they’ll improve, and they’ll be better in ’17. That’s the
plan, and no reason to doubt it! [Last year: 4-18, 68%, 17th place. Current
rating: 30.7]
17. Essendon Bombers (17th place, 4-18) Frankly, any
prediction of where the topped-up Dons are going to wind up seven months from
now is pure speculation. We’re assuming they’re still good players, and once
they learn to play together, they’ll be able to play with the teams around them
on the ladder and might even exceed the win total of the regulars who suffered
from such a dysfunctional disaster last winter. But really – who knows? [Last year: 6-16, 74%, 15th place.
Current rating: 28.9]
18. Carlton Blues (18th place, 3-19). I really wish I could tell you otherwise,
Blues fans, but it’s going to be a massive rebuilding project at Princes Park.
We’ll have to wait and see what direction this club chooses to take with its
new young talent and coach, but it’s not going to score very often this year,
and that makes it tough to win games. [Last
year: 4-18, 65%, 18th place. Current rating: 18.7]
Qualifying Finals: Fremantle def. GWS; Hawthorn def. Geelong.
Elimination Finals: West Coast def. Sydney; Richmond def. North
Melbourne.
Semi-Finals: West Coast def. GWS; Geelong def. Richmond.
Preliminary Finals: Fremantle def. Geelong; Hawthorn def. West
Coast.
Grand Final: Hawthorn def. Fremantle.
Monday, October 12, 2015
UPS AND DOWNS - flip flopping the schedule!
We'll go through the Weekend Wesults either later today or tomorrow, but so much else is happening that we really want to get this piece out today... because there are a TON of folks who are UP and even more who are DOWN all of a sudden...
UP - a belated UP-UP-UP to the THREE-PEAT champions of the Australian Football League, the HAWTHORN HAWKS! Coming into a Grand Final against a team that had spanked them by 31 points three weeks ago, coming in with an older roster that had to cross the country four times in three weeks while West Coast sat at home and won a pair of games before travelling to Melbourne to play in the fabled MCG, "the home of footy"...and once there, play like they were in awe of the situation, while the Hawks were in "been there, won that" mode, demolishing the Eagles in a game not unlike last year's demolition of the also high-flying Sydney Swans - a brief, half-period of hope, followed by one-and-a-half quarters of the most devastating footy you'll ever see, leaving the second half to basically be a procession to the throne for Hawthorn, unquestionably the outstanding franchise of the 21st century at this point. What's more, it was no fluke - imagining another team to outplay them next year is difficult, and probably a measure of self-destruction will be necessary for other clubs to fancy themselves as "flag favorites" at any point in 2016.
DOWN-DOWN-DOWN-DOWN to the coaches already jettisoned in the FBS, barely halfway through the season - Randy Edsell at Maryland, for whom the bell tolled last year but who survived to coach another season, only to start out 2-4 with routs from West Virginia, Ohio St and Michigan on his record. The three-TD loss to Bowling Green of the MAC was the worst of the lot, but as always, there's more to the story...With Steve Sarkisian of USC, the struggle is straightforward: alcohol abuse, combined with life stresses, pushed him well over the edge of professional behavior after a drunken appearance at a major booster event, another reported one at the Arizona St game, and the worst this Sunday when he arrived for practice completely plowed. He was immediately put on leave, and today was relieved of his duties by AD Pat Haden. His situation is different than Edsell's, especially if you believe that alcoholism is a disease, rather than purely a choice on a person's part. While the university personnel are saying all the right things - we support him in his quest to get healthy - and well they should, as we all should, it's hard for me not to look at these circumstances for a professional and say, Isn't there a line you realize you shouldn't cross long before you reach this point? Of course, he's not the first coach for whom addictions played a role in losing his "dream job" - some for their own abuses, some for abetting those of players; some for alcohol, some for drugs, some for violence, and some for sex. But somehow, somehow, there's got to be more than just sympathy for a coach who has the self-discipline to succeed in a profession that demands self-discipline more than almost any other, and yet can't find the self-discipline to curb his own addiction issues, or get help for them before they destroy him. There's got to be something more akin to responsibility for his actions, beyond the firing. Sarkisian's issues have destroyed his life - but probably only temporarily. He'll get another coaching job, and like Jim Tressel, Kelvin Sampson, and other previous disgracees, he'll resume his career. But the players, university personnel, boosters, and fans of USC football won't forget...Just added in the last few hours, two more coaches with reason to feel down - North Texas (former) head coach Dan McCarney, who was handed his pink slip today after UNT (already the creators of tier "V" in the FBS division this year for their ineptitude) not only lost as we predicted to FBS Big Sky Portland State (at home, on Homecoming of all days), but lost by the Baylor-esque score of 66-7 (actually, that's exactly the score Baylor had against Kansas Saturday. But that was BAYLOR, not a tier O, 3-2 FCS team!). It was the largest loss by an FBS (or "1-A") school to an FCS (or "1-AA") school in history. So, let's see, at least North Texas gets a break now to work a new coach in...what? They play Western Kentucky? The conference favorite? On THURSDAY? Great timing, UNT....AND last because the headliner always goes last, the Head Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier, retired from coaching today as South Carolina sits at 0-4 in the SEC East, 57th ranked in the country, tier J on the Following Football charts, and idiots calling for the head of the master when they aren't worthy to carry his jock strap. I feel on this one like I do on Adam Goodes being humiliated by Australian "fans" - yes, he should retire at the end of the year, and yes, if he had been an ass about it you could argue for removal then. But he single handedly made the SEC the most relevant conference in the country - he deserves a better send-off than this. I'm no Spurrier fan, but he had more football knowledge in his ball cap than I've had my entire existence.
(And by the way, one further DOWN to those idiots in Australia I just mentioned, for preventing Goodes from participating in ANY of the retired star activities that his fellow (and all lesser) stars got to do this fall (spring there) because he didn't want any booing to distract from the celebration for the others. A hero to the last, Mr. Goodes. You deserved so much better than this.)
DOWN also to poor Joe Philbin, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, who was never going to keep his job there after the issues that took place under his watch, which from our standpoint didn't seem to be his fault. But you've got to have a fall guy, and we'll guarantee 1-3 one fourth of the way through an NFL season is hardly reason to fire your coach - especially when you weren't figuring to set the world on fire to begin with. But as so often happens, when the boss wants to make a change, and the GM has the wrong players on the roster, the only one you can get rid of quickly is the coach. Good luck, Miami - here's betting the next twelve games are no better.
UP - a belated UP-UP-UP to the THREE-PEAT champions of the Australian Football League, the HAWTHORN HAWKS! Coming into a Grand Final against a team that had spanked them by 31 points three weeks ago, coming in with an older roster that had to cross the country four times in three weeks while West Coast sat at home and won a pair of games before travelling to Melbourne to play in the fabled MCG, "the home of footy"...and once there, play like they were in awe of the situation, while the Hawks were in "been there, won that" mode, demolishing the Eagles in a game not unlike last year's demolition of the also high-flying Sydney Swans - a brief, half-period of hope, followed by one-and-a-half quarters of the most devastating footy you'll ever see, leaving the second half to basically be a procession to the throne for Hawthorn, unquestionably the outstanding franchise of the 21st century at this point. What's more, it was no fluke - imagining another team to outplay them next year is difficult, and probably a measure of self-destruction will be necessary for other clubs to fancy themselves as "flag favorites" at any point in 2016.
DOWN-DOWN-DOWN-DOWN to the coaches already jettisoned in the FBS, barely halfway through the season - Randy Edsell at Maryland, for whom the bell tolled last year but who survived to coach another season, only to start out 2-4 with routs from West Virginia, Ohio St and Michigan on his record. The three-TD loss to Bowling Green of the MAC was the worst of the lot, but as always, there's more to the story...With Steve Sarkisian of USC, the struggle is straightforward: alcohol abuse, combined with life stresses, pushed him well over the edge of professional behavior after a drunken appearance at a major booster event, another reported one at the Arizona St game, and the worst this Sunday when he arrived for practice completely plowed. He was immediately put on leave, and today was relieved of his duties by AD Pat Haden. His situation is different than Edsell's, especially if you believe that alcoholism is a disease, rather than purely a choice on a person's part. While the university personnel are saying all the right things - we support him in his quest to get healthy - and well they should, as we all should, it's hard for me not to look at these circumstances for a professional and say, Isn't there a line you realize you shouldn't cross long before you reach this point? Of course, he's not the first coach for whom addictions played a role in losing his "dream job" - some for their own abuses, some for abetting those of players; some for alcohol, some for drugs, some for violence, and some for sex. But somehow, somehow, there's got to be more than just sympathy for a coach who has the self-discipline to succeed in a profession that demands self-discipline more than almost any other, and yet can't find the self-discipline to curb his own addiction issues, or get help for them before they destroy him. There's got to be something more akin to responsibility for his actions, beyond the firing. Sarkisian's issues have destroyed his life - but probably only temporarily. He'll get another coaching job, and like Jim Tressel, Kelvin Sampson, and other previous disgracees, he'll resume his career. But the players, university personnel, boosters, and fans of USC football won't forget...Just added in the last few hours, two more coaches with reason to feel down - North Texas (former) head coach Dan McCarney, who was handed his pink slip today after UNT (already the creators of tier "V" in the FBS division this year for their ineptitude) not only lost as we predicted to FBS Big Sky Portland State (at home, on Homecoming of all days), but lost by the Baylor-esque score of 66-7 (actually, that's exactly the score Baylor had against Kansas Saturday. But that was BAYLOR, not a tier O, 3-2 FCS team!). It was the largest loss by an FBS (or "1-A") school to an FCS (or "1-AA") school in history. So, let's see, at least North Texas gets a break now to work a new coach in...what? They play Western Kentucky? The conference favorite? On THURSDAY? Great timing, UNT....AND last because the headliner always goes last, the Head Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier, retired from coaching today as South Carolina sits at 0-4 in the SEC East, 57th ranked in the country, tier J on the Following Football charts, and idiots calling for the head of the master when they aren't worthy to carry his jock strap. I feel on this one like I do on Adam Goodes being humiliated by Australian "fans" - yes, he should retire at the end of the year, and yes, if he had been an ass about it you could argue for removal then. But he single handedly made the SEC the most relevant conference in the country - he deserves a better send-off than this. I'm no Spurrier fan, but he had more football knowledge in his ball cap than I've had my entire existence.
(And by the way, one further DOWN to those idiots in Australia I just mentioned, for preventing Goodes from participating in ANY of the retired star activities that his fellow (and all lesser) stars got to do this fall (spring there) because he didn't want any booing to distract from the celebration for the others. A hero to the last, Mr. Goodes. You deserved so much better than this.)
DOWN also to poor Joe Philbin, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, who was never going to keep his job there after the issues that took place under his watch, which from our standpoint didn't seem to be his fault. But you've got to have a fall guy, and we'll guarantee 1-3 one fourth of the way through an NFL season is hardly reason to fire your coach - especially when you weren't figuring to set the world on fire to begin with. But as so often happens, when the boss wants to make a change, and the GM has the wrong players on the roster, the only one you can get rid of quickly is the coach. Good luck, Miami - here's betting the next twelve games are no better.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Weekend Wesults!
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...
If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!
In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.
In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.
With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.
Huh....
Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.
Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...
"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers.
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17.
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36!
And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.
So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!).
Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...
Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread. [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.
If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!
In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.
In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.
With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.
Huh....
Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.
Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...
"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers.
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17.
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36!
And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.
So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!).
Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...
Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread. [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.
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