Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 

Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)

The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN

We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.

So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?

QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!

It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!

So, here are our division projections: 

AFC)

EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.

NFC)

EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.

4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)

PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.

AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.

AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.

SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.

Good article about the collapse of the Gold Coast Suns

Rarely does a team go from Finals favorite to last place - the NFL's Houston Texans of 2013 come to mind, after five straight games of pick-sixes doomed Matt Schaub's career as QB there - but the AFL's Gold Coast Suns have shown how to do it in style, going from fancied darkhorse premiership favorites to a 1-6 start that still looks better than they do.

Michael Whiting has written a great article about the Suns for afl.com.au - incisive, insightful, and cuts to the bone about the major issues without beating around the bush. Definitely worth the read!

More NFL trade talk...

And the hits keep coming... Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets...Is there a positive outcome for either team in the Nick Foles to the Rams/Sam Bradford to Philly trade?...Jimmy Graham to Seattle from the Saints makes sense from both sides (New Orleans is WAY over the cap), but it apparently isn't making Graham a happy man!...Finally, Peter King has his usual great insight into the amazing changes throughout the NFL landscape over the last week in his Monday Wednesday Morning Quarterback column, including some interesting notes about the probable number one pick in the draft, Jamies Winston.

The first ever FOLLOWING FOOTBALL NFL All-League TEAM!

We're going to take a shot at this All-League team business (since everyone else does!). Unlike MOST such endeavors, we're trying something that sounds simply ridiculous on the surface...we refused to name our team until the regular season ENDS! None of this "2 games to go" stuff for us! It's All-League for the 2014 SEASON...and the season didn't end until Sunday! (We have similar semantic complaints for not calling it the "first annual"...it's not annual until we do it again next year!)  Please understand, this goes against our anti-fantasy football mindset...but there are indeed certain players that stand out above their peers.

Okay, so, here goes!

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
   As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
  It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
   Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
   Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82. 
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
   This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.

Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
   We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself  (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
   Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
  Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
   All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
   Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.

Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
   Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker. 
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
   Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
   It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
   What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!

Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR -  AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.

TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).

About NFL Week 16...

Pride before a fall...before the Seattle/Arizona game, Following Football is 2-0 outpredicting the casinos: Baltimore lost outright to Houston, and San Diego not only took the 49ers to OT despite their great start last night, they won outright.

But more than that, if you used our predictions to bet against the spread in this week's games, you'd've gone 10-2 with two games that were washes and two still to go!

(Therefore, we're about to look like fools in these last two games!)

UPDATE: Yup. Seattle just annihilated the team with the fourth string QB. NOT really a surprise, but it won't show up on a pure performance based model. So, we fall to 10-3 against the spread this week (w Denver/Cincy to go), and we went 2-1 outpredicting the casinos, moving to 37-34-3 for the year.

The Oakland Raiders look like they're starting to gel a little bit, don't they? Sure, they're just 3-12, but the wins against KC, SF, and now Buffalo all had some guts involved in them... The Houston Texans may not be playoff bound, but they're sure campaigning for an MVP candidate! The visual of the bloodied JJ Watt dominating the Ravens' offense will stick with the voters... The Indianapolis Colts look like the very definition of "pretenders"... The Jacksonville/Tennessee game Thursday night was a pathetic battle of 2-12 teams doomed to failure today and the impending future, containing no real stars worth watching, still managed to beat the last ever episode of The Colbert Report and every other show on cable Thursday night, So...still think that the NFL is an endangered species?

(Maybe, but not in the next few years...)

Playoffs are getting clearer...the Eagles are out, and all that's left to really determine in the NFC besides seeding is the "winner" of the South division, which will come from the winner of the game Sunday between two six-win teams, Atlanta and Carolina. Meanwhile, the AFC still has a host of eight and nine win teams fighting over a dwindling number of slots, now that the Pittsburgh Steelers hit ten wins and clinched a spot of some sort. So, two places remain, facing the Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and Colts.

UPDATE: It's really hard to watch the Seattle Seahawks decimate the Arizona Cardinals, 35-6 as the clock is running out, and NOT think they're the favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the same stadium they won in tonight. Hop onto ESPN.com and take a look at Marshawn Lynch's impossible run for a 79-yard touchdown, as well as Russell Wilson's sick TD run towards the end of the game. You won't be disappointed.

A reversal of roles for JJ Watt!

It's one thing to ask a superstar like JJ Watt for his autograph. 

It's quite another to figure that you're going to be such a big star yourself that it's appropriate to send JJ Watt your own autographed jersey!!

ESPN shares Watt's tweet on the subject.

NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!

(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)

Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]

So, here's Week 16!

THUR                                          FF Tiers        Vegas line        Sagarin        Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville             Jax -3              Jax -3                 Jax - 3.0            Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington         Phi -7               Phi -9                 Phi - 9.3            Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco   EVEN            SF - 2                SD - 0.7           SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami                      Mia -5              Mia -7                Mia -8.1            Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston              HOU -1          BAL - 6            BAL -1.2         Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago                         Det -5              Det -7                 Det - 4.0           Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina                    Car - 1              Car - 4                Car - 1.0           Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans                  NO - 2             NO - 6.5             NO -3.1             NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay               GB -11              GB - 10.5           GB - 11.3           GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh              Pit -4.5            Pit - 3.5              KC - 1.9           Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets    NE -10.5          NE -10.5           NE -15.2          NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis        StL - 6.5           StL -5                StL - 5.9            StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland                        Buf - 5              Buf -6                Buf - 9.3          Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas                   Dal -1                Dal -3                Indy -1.1         Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona                      Ariz -2            Sea -9             Ariz -0.6         Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati                      Den - 1              Den - 3.5           Den -5.4            Den -2.5     

So, a couple of observations...
   The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).

   Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.

   Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]

So...who will the NFL's Most Valuable be?

And...how do you define what that is? "Most Valuable" to whom: the team? The league? History? The coffers of the NFL?

So, let's start the conversation with THIS definition: the MVP is the player who contributes the most to his particular team's success on the field that specific year. Not "how spectacular are they?" Not "most popular". Not "award for a career's body of work", not the most surprising, and certainly not the highest selling jerseys, either. Finally, it should be the player who ADDS the most to the win total of his team: a great player whose team would go 16-0 without him adds NO value to his team, while a great player whose team STILL can't win a game also adds NO value to his team in our criteria.

Got it? Good! Here's our short list of whom to consider...

J.J. Watt, Houston. No, he's not going to win, and he probably shouldn't win. But he's probably singlehandedly won at least two games for the Texans with his two-way play, and deserves the credit he gets and then some.

Tom Brady, New England. A very viable candidate because without him, the Pats would be toast. This isn't the team that Matt Cassell could step in and go 11-5 with; a Bradyless New England is third in the division.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis. See above. 

Peyton Manning, Denver. See above, except that he has so much talent on both sides of the ball this year that it's arguable that even HE isn't indispensable this year.

Russell Wilson, Seattle. A different situation than Luck or Brady: The Seahawks DO have the talent to win with most quarterbacks, but it's Wilson's leadership as much as his throwing or running ability that transform Seattle from a contender into a Super Bowl champ and (increasingly) likely repeat champ.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas. His season will indubitably be the top by a running back this year, but it's the theory of play Jason Garrett has for the Cowboys this year - don't let Romo or the defense lose the game; let the running game win it - that has Murray in the hunt.

Chip Kelly, Philadelphia. Don't laugh: how many extra wins has Kelly come up with for the Eagles this year? If he can make a winning team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's got to be in the conversation as the Most Valuable Something!

Bruce Arians, Arizona. See above, and replace Sanchez with Stanton, and then whomever he threw in after Stanton went out Thursday to beat the Rams with!

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.  And last but probably most, the likely favorite in most people's eyes may or may not be the MOST valuable under these criteria, if only because the Packers are really good anyway. Certainly, Rodgers is having an insanely good season; he doesn't even HAVE a touchdown/interception ratio at home, because you must have a non-zero number in the denominator to have a ratio, and he's something like 36:0 at Lambeau. He's very likely the Most Outstanding Player; but we're not convinced he's the most valuable to his particular team.

But we get three more weeks to examine the incoming evidence! 

Andre Johnson's one of the good ones...

Maybe it's something in the water in Houston, but here's another Houston Texans player who "gets it" - we're supposed to give back when God blesses us with abundance.

Andre Johnson sponsors "toy runs" for kids in child protective services every Christmas - this year, he's up to eleven of them - and spends so much doing it that his credit card company calls to check for fraud...

JJ Watt. Defender. Football Star. American Superhero....

So, yeah, JJ's an amazing player - four touchdowns this year (as a d-lineman, although one was a spectacular reception as a tackle-eligible), probable Defensive Player of the Year, charming with the media, commercial superstar...

But do you know what he does behind the scenes? The Houston firefighters and policemen do. 

Or, ask the young man in this video what JJ Watt does in his spare time...

Or his bride Breanna...the crying six year old girl...

Pending a Steeler rout tonight, we present our Week 11 NFL rankings!

As with the college teams, we're confident enough about the progressing season to actually rank the NFL teams #1-32...

A1. Arizona Cardinals (9-1) - Hard to deny them being the favorites right now!
A2. New England Patriots (8-2) - They've now beaten all three AFC division leaders.
A3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) - Fifty points twice in a row, destroying the Eagles yesterday.
A4. Denver Broncos (7-3) - Hard for Manning to be effective throwing w/ no one 2 throw 2

B5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) - IF Romo is healthy AND DeMarco stays healthy...
B6. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
B7. Detroit Lions (7-3) - No disrespect in their loss yesterday.
B8. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) - On the other hand: where's the running game?

C9. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) - Since 0-2 start, they're on a roll...
C10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) - IF the "good Andy" shows up, they look like this...
C11. Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
C12. Miami Dolphins (6-4) - The pieces are all there: as Tannehill matures, they'll be great.

D13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
D14. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) - Give them time; if they're healthy and clicking in December...
D15. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) - See previous comment...

D16. Cleveland Browns (6-4)
E17. San Diego Chargers (6-4)

E18. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
E19. Houston Texans (5-5) - JJ WATT for PRESIDENT! But if there's only one of him...
E20. New Orleans Saints (4-6) - Yeah, but they're losing at home now...What's next?
F21. St. Louis Rams (4-6) - #21 with a bullet: Jeff Fisher's got them looking good!

F22. Chicago Bears (4-6) - Roll the D20 for Cutler's performance: good, mediocre, or AAH!
F23. New York Giants (4-6)
F24. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) - Of the four NFC South disasters, they have the most potential.
G25. Carolina Panthers (3-7-1)
G26. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) - If they can get even mediocre play from Bridgewater...

G27. Washington Redskins (3-7)
G28. Tennessee Titans (2-7)
H29. New York Jets (2-8)

H30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8)
H31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
H32. Oakland Raiders (0-10) - For a team on a 16 game losing streak, they're ALWAYS competitive. Anytime there's a spread of more than two TDs, take it: they'll cover. They won't WIN...but they'll cover.

Don't blame US if the pro tiers for Week 8 are imbalanced!

Blame the teams! We literally gave up trying to make the number of teams in each tier balance and went back to our guiding principle: Put teams that would play even games on a neutral field in the same tier. That means the chart looks more like a bell-curve than a flat line, but so be it! By the end of the season, it'll straighten itself out!

So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...

Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)

Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...

Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)

Quintile C is the middle of the pack:

Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)

Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...

Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)

Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:

Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)

Week 6 NFL Quartiles...seen this before?

So, the changes in quartiles after Week 6 is moving the 3-2 Browns up another level this week, into the Second Quartile, and knocking the .500 Texans down to the Third. Otherwise, all 30 other teams remain status quo this week. So, next week, it's time to divvy up the pros a little more: quintiles? Or deeper? You decide! Comment on this or any other post and let us know what you think!

HERE ARE YOUR WEEK SIX NFL QUARTILES...

Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.

Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, New England and San Francisco.

Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.

Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.

(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; we feel it's pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)

A few Football factoids to Follow...

* The Philadelphia Eagles have returned seven balls for touchdowns this season, in just their first five games, which is the most in NFL history. Only four teams had six (including Dante Hall's KC Chiefs in 2003), and no one else this season has more than three!

* JJ Watt (occupation: Houston Texan defensive end) has two of those himself, including the amazingly athletic fumble return last night off Andrew Luck, as well as a TD catch as an offensive crossover. Besides being a budding media superstar and (by all accounts) a tremendously nice man, he is the most spectacular and arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league. However, as Colin Cowherd made note of this morning, he is NOT the league MVP, nor will he be. It's basically impossible to imagine a situation where a player who touches the ball twice a game on average is your most valuable, QBs have the huge advantage of handling it and determining the direction of it every single play, and the only other positions with a chance would be the others the handle it regularly - backs and receivers. Watt was spectacular last night...and the Texans lost, again, for the 15th time in 22 games, because their QB play was not up to snuff. In this case, not up to Luck. (Or Manning, or Brady, or Rogers, or Wilson or Brees or any of those top passers that dominate the games they play. 

Sorry, JJ - we love you; we really do! But you won't be the MVP.

* Todd Gurley, Georgia's Heisman-candidate running back, got caught puling a Manziel, signing autographs for money. He made approximately $400 by ESPN's estimation, and it may be that his college career is over. 

Meanwhile, the Power Five conferences (of which Georgia is a member) are about to start supplying cost-of-living expenses for their players, including insurance benefits and more, which will amount to hundreds of times more money flowing to every football player like Todd Gurley than he just got banned from the game for. 

Irony.

* If you're Peyton Manning, six touchdowns from tying Bret Favre's career TD record, and you're playing at the Jets this Sunday in a "who cares" road game before coming home for two important games against SF and SD... How many scores do you throw for this week? Certainly, not six or seven - he'd like to break the record at home, I'm sure. But this IS the Jets, after all, and wouldn't it be nice to get close so he can relax about "IT" happening sometime during that five day span. Our bet: if Peyton doesn't throw at least FOUR (and more likely five!) in New Jersey, it'll be an upset.

* The Cards are probably starting Logan Thomas, late of Va-Tech, at QB against Washington this weekend. Thomas' career stat sheet is remarkable, so I'll remark on it: 1 for 8, for 81 yards. The one was a mistake that the defense whiffed on, leaving the receiver to take it home without interference. Even against Washington, this could be ugly...

* Finally, two unusual college teams to watch out for... the Kentucky Wildcats are a three-OT, missed delay-of-game penalty away from an undefeated record, and the California Golden Bears are a Hail Mary loss to Arizona from a similar 5-0 record. Both teams have shown resilience and the ability to bounce back when down this year, despite meager recent histories... Why not them? Why not this year?