Here's week two of the FBS bowl season, from Dec 27 onwards (see our previous post for the first week's predictions), from ESPN, Sagarin, Vegas, and Following Football:
Dec 27 ESPN Sagarin Vegas Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech: Cinc by 6 Cinc by 0.2 Cinc by 3 Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St: ASU by 4 ASU by 6.6 ASU by 7.5 ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina: Mia by 7 SC by 0.3 Mia by 3 SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St PSU by 3 BC by 3 BC by 2.5 BC by 2
Nebraska v USC: USC by 11 USC by 2.1 USC by 6.5 USC by 1
Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia A&M by 1 A&M by 2.0 WV by 3.5 A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson: OU by 11 OU by 5.6 OU by 3 OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas: Ark by 7 Ark by 12.4 Ark by 6 Ark by 1
Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU: LSU by 3 LSU by 12.7 LSU by 7 LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville: Lou by 4 UGA by 11.5 UGA by 6.5 UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford: Stan by 14 Stan by 11.2 Stan by 14 Stan by 6
Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU: TCU by 3 TCU by 1.4 TCU by 3 TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona: Ariz by 3 Ariz by 5.2 Ariz by 3.5 Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech: GT by 4 MSU by 10.2 MSU by 6.5 MSU by 1
Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin: Aub by 7 Aub by 10.3 Aub by 6.5 Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor: Bay by 7 Bay by 4.6 Bay by 3 Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota: Mizz by 4 Mizz by 6.4 Mizz by 5 Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon: Ore by 11 Ore by 9.7 Ore by 9 Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama: Ala by 7 Ala by 4.3 Ala by 9.5 Ala by 3
Jan 2
Pitt v Houston: Pitt by 4 Pitt by 3.1 Pitt by 3 Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee: Tenn by 11 Tenn by 6.3 Tenn by 3.5 Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA: KSU by 3 KSU by 5 KSU by 3 KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St: UW by 14 UW by 5 UW by 5.5 UW by 7
Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida: ECU by 4 Fla by 13.6 Fla by 7 Fla by 4
Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St: Toledo by 4 ArkSt by 0.3 Toledo by 3 Toledo by 1
Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.
Showing posts with label Cincinnati. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cincinnati. Show all posts
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Monday, November 3, 2014
Here's another good regular read: Sam Cooper!
Cooper does a commendable job recapping many of the storylines of the weekend past in college football - some of these we've touched on, like the Maryland refusal to shake hands; some of them we haven't, like the tragedy of Connor Halliday's broken leg at Washington State or the yanked field goal of the aptly-named Pitt kicker Chris Blewett, or even the more delightfully named Munchie Legaux at Cincinnati. Take a look yourself, courtesy of Yahoo Sports!
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Week 8 tiers continued - the Ground Floor!
Continuing out of the Basement and up to the Ground Floor with Tiers K through P, the "second quartile", if you will - we refuse to rank teams this early in the season, but these are teams #62 through #96 (there are seven teams in each of these five tiers). Onward!
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Interesting games this weekend...
Here are the college games that will keep us attentive this weekend...
In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!
Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...
Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!
Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...
Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.
We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.
Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...
What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?
How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?
Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)
Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....
The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!
South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).
The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!
Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).
Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.
In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!
Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...
Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!
Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...
Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.
We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.
Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...
What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?
How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?
Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)
Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....
The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!
South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).
The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!
Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).
Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Games in American Football for Week 6...
The weekend starts on Thursday night, as the Indianapolis Colts go to Houston to play the Texans in the game of the night (BYU at UCF is a yawner - sorry, boys...). As much as the Following Football crowd loves JJ Watt (he who proposed to a six year old girl who swooned over him on YouTube last year!), you cannot bet against Andrew Luck in a prime time game (not that you should ever bet on football - especially pro football! WAY too unpredictable - even we so-called 'experts' are correct against the spread about as often as a coin flip!). We like the COLTS over the TEXANS by more than the 3 point spread.
Friday
San Diego State should beat New Mexico handily (by more than six), and we don't see Washington State allowing Stanford to beat them by the seventeen points the oddsmakers suggest. Take the Aztecs and the Cougars (for recreational purposes only!).
SATURDAY
The games we like: Cincinnati won't lose by two touchdowns to Miami of FL...Expect West Virginia to go to Texas Tech and handle the Red Raiders easily...Texas Longhorn fans should watch something else Saturday than their game against Oklahoma: go cruise the State Fair, have a corn dog, or (gag!) deep-fried sweet tea (how do you even do that?). But the Sooners will demolish them sooner rather than later... Georgia Tech by more than four over Duke, thanks to the work of their chaplain's pre-game speeches...Kent State, despite being winless, will beat up UMass, who can't figure out how to win a game when the opposing team hands it to them (as Miami-OH did last week)...Not a no-brainer, but we like Baylor to win against the TCU Horned Frogs by more than the 8 1/2 point spread at home...Oregon will be quacking mad, and ready to rush right through the paper-mache offensive line of UCLA Saturday; expect a big Duck win...Idaho won't break their winless streak at Georgia Southern this week, but they will hold it closer than three TDs...We absolutely cannot believe that Michigan is favored over Penn State Saturday night; the Nittany Lions will make cat food out of them...LSU should be more than a 1 1/2 point favorite at Florida, but most bettors can't believe that the SEC West is as weak as the SEC East is strong. Literally, the first place team in the West would lose against all but Arkansas in the East, and even Arkansas would be 4-3 or better in the West. Take the Tigers.
SUNDAY
Again, betting on NFL games in the age of parity is like playing roulette, but here's a couple of games we think we can guess the way the chips will fall: The Broncos should end up ten or more points clear of the Jets, but Peyton'll wait until being back in Denver to break the TD record...We like the Panthers to keep close to the Bengals, and the Steelers to stay close to the Browns, although we have no confidence on victories in either case... The Redskins, Raiders, and Giants are all expected to lose (to the Cardinals, Chargers, and Eagles, respectively), but we think the line-makers are too conservative. Take the favorites and the points.
And on Monday night, it's hard for us to see the Rams staying closer than a field goal to the Forty-Niners, even at home.
Friday
San Diego State should beat New Mexico handily (by more than six), and we don't see Washington State allowing Stanford to beat them by the seventeen points the oddsmakers suggest. Take the Aztecs and the Cougars (for recreational purposes only!).
SATURDAY
The games we like: Cincinnati won't lose by two touchdowns to Miami of FL...Expect West Virginia to go to Texas Tech and handle the Red Raiders easily...Texas Longhorn fans should watch something else Saturday than their game against Oklahoma: go cruise the State Fair, have a corn dog, or (gag!) deep-fried sweet tea (how do you even do that?). But the Sooners will demolish them sooner rather than later... Georgia Tech by more than four over Duke, thanks to the work of their chaplain's pre-game speeches...Kent State, despite being winless, will beat up UMass, who can't figure out how to win a game when the opposing team hands it to them (as Miami-OH did last week)...Not a no-brainer, but we like Baylor to win against the TCU Horned Frogs by more than the 8 1/2 point spread at home...Oregon will be quacking mad, and ready to rush right through the paper-mache offensive line of UCLA Saturday; expect a big Duck win...Idaho won't break their winless streak at Georgia Southern this week, but they will hold it closer than three TDs...We absolutely cannot believe that Michigan is favored over Penn State Saturday night; the Nittany Lions will make cat food out of them...LSU should be more than a 1 1/2 point favorite at Florida, but most bettors can't believe that the SEC West is as weak as the SEC East is strong. Literally, the first place team in the West would lose against all but Arkansas in the East, and even Arkansas would be 4-3 or better in the West. Take the Tigers.
SUNDAY
Again, betting on NFL games in the age of parity is like playing roulette, but here's a couple of games we think we can guess the way the chips will fall: The Broncos should end up ten or more points clear of the Jets, but Peyton'll wait until being back in Denver to break the TD record...We like the Panthers to keep close to the Bengals, and the Steelers to stay close to the Browns, although we have no confidence on victories in either case... The Redskins, Raiders, and Giants are all expected to lose (to the Cardinals, Chargers, and Eagles, respectively), but we think the line-makers are too conservative. Take the favorites and the points.
And on Monday night, it's hard for us to see the Rams staying closer than a field goal to the Forty-Niners, even at home.
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