As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
Showing posts with label Packers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Packers. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for the Last Week of October!
Yes, we've been negligent in our UPS and DOWNS this month, so let's see if we can make it up to you today with a BIG long list!
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!
It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA
Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!
Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky!
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)
From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!]
Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!
Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky!
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indianapolis
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC West: Seattle
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)
AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)
NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)
NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).
Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:
AFC playoff teams NFC playoff teams
1. Indianapolis (#3 overall) 1. Green Bay (#1 overall)
2. New England (#4 overall) 2. Seattle (#2 overall)
[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]
3. Denver (#5 overall) 3. Dallas (#6 overall)
4. Baltimore (#8 overall) 4. Carolina (#14 overall)
5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall) 5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)
6. Cincinnati (#11 overall) 6. Arizona (#10 overall)
[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]
Below those teams...
7. Miami (#12 overall) 7. New Orleans (#17 overall)
[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]
8. Kansas City (#13 overall) 8. Minnesota (#18 overall)
9. Buffalo (#15 overall) 9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)
10. San Diego (#16 overall) 10. Detroit (#21 overall)
11. Houston (#20 overall) 11. Atlanta (#22 overall)
12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall) 12. St. Louis (#23 overall)
13. Jacksonville (#28 overall) 13. San Francisco (#24 overall)
14. Cleveland (#30 overall) 14. Chicago (#26 overall)
15. Oakland (#31 overall) 15. Washington (#27 overall)
16. Tennessee (#32 overall) 16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)
Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?
As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...
Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:
Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game
Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)
Alabama (8.5 to 1)
TCU (9 to 1)Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)
From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!]
Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!
Monday, July 20, 2015
Money. That's what makes the NFL go 'round.
Let's just post this, verbatim, from ESPN's news feed. Compare the amounts for 2015 and from five years ago...
NFL teams each received $226.4 million from the NFL as part of national revenue sharing from the 2014 fiscal year.
The amount was revealed on Monday when the Green Bay Packers reported their share of the pie. The total surpassed $7.2 billion and comes mostly from the league's television deals.
The national-revenue-sharing pot, split 32 ways, is up from slightly more than $6 billion last year, because the new TV deals with CBS, NBC, Fox, ABC/ESPN and NFL Network kicked in this past season. The national-revenue-sharing amount is up 120 percent, factoring for inflation, over the past 11 years.
In the 2010 fiscal year, the league split a little more than $3 billion among its 32 teams.
An increase of 120% over the last eleven years. Almost enough to cover concussion lawsuits...
NFL teams each received $226.4 million from the NFL as part of national revenue sharing from the 2014 fiscal year.
The amount was revealed on Monday when the Green Bay Packers reported their share of the pie. The total surpassed $7.2 billion and comes mostly from the league's television deals.
The national-revenue-sharing pot, split 32 ways, is up from slightly more than $6 billion last year, because the new TV deals with CBS, NBC, Fox, ABC/ESPN and NFL Network kicked in this past season. The national-revenue-sharing amount is up 120 percent, factoring for inflation, over the past 11 years.
In the 2010 fiscal year, the league split a little more than $3 billion among its 32 teams.
An increase of 120% over the last eleven years. Almost enough to cover concussion lawsuits...
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
What drives a player into retirement? Ask Brett Favre.
While some will take the headline as sensationalistic ("FAVRE SAYS HE COULD STILL PLAY IN THE NFL!!!!!!), his point is an important one in this article I've linked.
Favre's point is that even now, seven years out, he could still make the throws he used to make (minus some of the length, perhaps, "but that never matters anyway"). It's the hits that drive you from the game, he says. After a while, your body simply can't recover anymore, at least not in the six-and-a-half days between games you get.
Could we protect players more? Sure.
Could we protect them without damaging the game? Not completely, no.
The NBA is looking into lengthening the time that its 82 games take place in, to allow for fewer back-to-back games, fewer debilitating road trips that coaches feel the need to sit their starters just to preserve their bodies for the remainder of the season.
But the CFL (a nine-team league) lost five quarterbacks during the first weekend of games alone, including the first AND second stringers from one team (Montreal). Did you pay to see the third string clipboard holder suffer through a topnotch defense? Neither did I.
If there was an easy solution, we'd already have it. The biggest question is this: where do we believe the line between safety and "the integrity of the game" is?
Favre's point is that even now, seven years out, he could still make the throws he used to make (minus some of the length, perhaps, "but that never matters anyway"). It's the hits that drive you from the game, he says. After a while, your body simply can't recover anymore, at least not in the six-and-a-half days between games you get.
Could we protect players more? Sure.
Could we protect them without damaging the game? Not completely, no.
The NBA is looking into lengthening the time that its 82 games take place in, to allow for fewer back-to-back games, fewer debilitating road trips that coaches feel the need to sit their starters just to preserve their bodies for the remainder of the season.
But the CFL (a nine-team league) lost five quarterbacks during the first weekend of games alone, including the first AND second stringers from one team (Montreal). Did you pay to see the third string clipboard holder suffer through a topnotch defense? Neither did I.
If there was an easy solution, we'd already have it. The biggest question is this: where do we believe the line between safety and "the integrity of the game" is?
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
More on Chris Borland - and the surprising lack of shock in his early retirement
The most poignant thing in this article, a follow-up to the piece we linked this morning noting the retirement of 49ers linebacker Chris Borland at the tender age of twenty-four, after just one season, is the last section, from former Jets star Wesley Walker. Truthfully, his words bring tears:
Wesley Walker, 59, who played 13 years with the Jets, said he's had surgeries on his neck, back, shoulders, knees and Achilles that he attributed to his football career. He said that he suffers from spinal stenosis and nerve damage, that he feels pain in his arms and fingers, and that he's had 14 screws and a plate inserted into his neck and 10 screws and two rods inserted into his back.
"I admire [Borland] for what he did. I admire him for being man enough and smart enough to know what's more important in life," Walker told ESPN.com's Ian O'Connor. "If I had to do it over again, and I knew I'd end up in the amount of pain I'm always in, there's no way in hell I'd play football again. With all of my injuries, including my neck, I took a chance of breaking my neck and ending up in a wheelchair. I look back and ask, 'What was I thinking?' "
"Every individual has to make his own decision, and there's so much money to be made these days. But is money more important, or is your life more important? I could never see myself hurting myself, but there have been times when I've thought, 'God, I wish you'd just end this right now.' I don't sleep, I'm in constant pain, I haven't felt my feet in 20 years. I feel like there are times when my whole body shuts down. Sometimes I feel like I'm 90 years old.
"[Commissioner] Roger Goodell is a good friend of mine. But I want the NFL to tell truth about what's happening with players, and I think they sugarcoat everything."
The thought of retirement came many months ago for Borland, who played through concussion during training camp and realized that was facing him the rest of his career if he wanted to be good at his choice of vocation.
Borland told "Outside The Lines" that he had been thinking about leaving football as the 2014 season went along, and wrote a letter to his parents late in the year. After the season, he consulted with prominent concussion researchers and former players to affirm his decision.
"I've thought about what I could accomplish in football, but for me, personally, when you read about Mike Webster and Dave Duerson and Ray Easterling, you read all these stories, and to be the type of player I want to be in football, I think I'd have to take on some risks that, as a person, I don't want to take on."
Borland was referring to former NFL greats who were diagnosed with the devastating brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, after their deaths. Duerson and Easterling committed suicide.
Borland said he began to have misgivings during training camp. He said he suffered what he believed to be a concussion stuffing a running play but played through it, in part because he was trying to make the team.
"I just thought to myself, 'What am I doing? Is this how I'm going to live my adult life, banging my head, especially with what I've learned and know about the dangers?'"
The saddest reaction, for me, came from Green Bay Packers director of player personnel Eliot Wolf, who tweeted the following (as if it contradicted Borland's actions):
"Anyone worried about the future of football should see the amount of calls & emails we get from kids literally begging to get into pro days."
It's not the future of football I'm worried about, Mr. Wolf, but the future of those kids begging to get into pro days.
Monday, January 19, 2015
Kneel downs win football games!
An old post from our friends at Football Outsiders, but a great one. With Mike McCarthy claiming that the reason he ran the ball so much in the last five minutes yesterday was that he wanted to get "20 rushing attempts in the second half. I felt that would be a very important target to hit for our offense” (Courtesy Bill Barnwell of Grantland), it's time to extrapolate his commonly-held misconception that running a lot in the second half causes victories. It's the other way around, dingbats! You run the ball because you're in the lead and you're trying to kill the clock!
So, the obvious conclusion we draw from this "logic" - what else happens when you're leading in the second half? Particularly the very LATE second half? Kneel downs. This post shows* how teams that have at least TWO kneel down plays in the second half win 90% of the games! With that kind of logic, why wouldn't you start kneeling as soon as you get the ball? "Kneel, kneel, kneel, PUNT! Kneel, kneel, kneel, PUNT!"Ah yes...I can hear the cheerleaders now...
Here's my favorite paragraph of the article:
In games in which the quarterback did not kneel at all, teams average 18.4 points per game. When the quarterback knelt once in a game, teams averaged 20.2 points. In games with two kneels, teams averaged 22.1 points per game. By simple linear regression (a method that relates one variable to another and allows statisticians to extrapolate predictions), it follows that if a team calls 40 quarterback kneels in a game, they will score 92.4 points per game. (Our emphasis.)
So, the obvious conclusion we draw from this "logic" - what else happens when you're leading in the second half? Particularly the very LATE second half? Kneel downs. This post shows* how teams that have at least TWO kneel down plays in the second half win 90% of the games! With that kind of logic, why wouldn't you start kneeling as soon as you get the ball? "Kneel, kneel, kneel, PUNT! Kneel, kneel, kneel, PUNT!"Ah yes...I can hear the cheerleaders now...
Here's my favorite paragraph of the article:
In games in which the quarterback did not kneel at all, teams average 18.4 points per game. When the quarterback knelt once in a game, teams averaged 20.2 points. In games with two kneels, teams averaged 22.1 points per game. By simple linear regression (a method that relates one variable to another and allows statisticians to extrapolate predictions), it follows that if a team calls 40 quarterback kneels in a game, they will score 92.4 points per game. (Our emphasis.)
Advanced Football Analytics! Go ahead: geek out!
Here's a great visual of how unlikely the Seattle comeback was over Green Bay yesterday. If you've never seen Advanced Football Analytics, and you're a football fan AND a geek, this is Christmas day for you!
Basically, the graph is telling you that at halftime, the Pack had about a 91% chance of winning the game...and with 3:07 to go in regulation, the likelihood of winning the NFC title for Green Bay was over 98%...and yet, it's Seattle that's going to the Super Bowl. That's what the ridiculously sharp downward spike in the graph right after that point is telling you.
(To orient you: the time of the game progresses from left to right, with the scale on the bottom. The probability of Green Bay winning increases as the graph's line goes UP, and it decreases as the graph's line goes DOWN. For Seattle, it's exactly the opposite, since the more likely it is for Seattle to win, the LESS likely it is for Green Bay to win. That's why one line works for both. The line can't hit 100% for either team until the game actually ends.)
Basically, the graph is telling you that at halftime, the Pack had about a 91% chance of winning the game...and with 3:07 to go in regulation, the likelihood of winning the NFC title for Green Bay was over 98%...and yet, it's Seattle that's going to the Super Bowl. That's what the ridiculously sharp downward spike in the graph right after that point is telling you.
(To orient you: the time of the game progresses from left to right, with the scale on the bottom. The probability of Green Bay winning increases as the graph's line goes UP, and it decreases as the graph's line goes DOWN. For Seattle, it's exactly the opposite, since the more likely it is for Seattle to win, the LESS likely it is for Green Bay to win. That's why one line works for both. The line can't hit 100% for either team until the game actually ends.)
Sunday, January 18, 2015
Seattle / Green Bay live blog....
Monday morning) Good piece today in For The Win about how Green Bay lost the game in the last five minutes not by playing conservatively, but rather playing as if the game had already been won.
5:20 pm) So, where does this game rank for you all-time? Best playoff game ever? One of the classics? A very interesting game but you can name better ones off the top of your head? Comment, please!
After fifty-plus minutes of ineptitude, Seattle outgained Green Bay rushing and passing, had more first downs, and scored 21 points AFTER the 55 minute mark of the game.
Bostick said after the game that his job was to BLOCK on the onside play, but the ball came towards him, and he thought he could make a play.
Will Richard Sherman be okay for the Super Bowl? He still wasn't moving his left arm after the game....
4:45 pm) At halftime, Troy Aikman said that if the Packers continued to play with the focus on the wings and leave the center open, at some point Russell Wilson would take advantage of it, like he did on the title-winning TD pass. Nice call, Troy.
4:30 pm) haiku 14...
5:20 pm) So, where does this game rank for you all-time? Best playoff game ever? One of the classics? A very interesting game but you can name better ones off the top of your head? Comment, please!
After fifty-plus minutes of ineptitude, Seattle outgained Green Bay rushing and passing, had more first downs, and scored 21 points AFTER the 55 minute mark of the game.
Bostick said after the game that his job was to BLOCK on the onside play, but the ball came towards him, and he thought he could make a play.
Will Richard Sherman be okay for the Super Bowl? He still wasn't moving his left arm after the game....
4:45 pm) At halftime, Troy Aikman said that if the Packers continued to play with the focus on the wings and leave the center open, at some point Russell Wilson would take advantage of it, like he did on the title-winning TD pass. Nice call, Troy.
First thirteen possessions for Seattle: five turnovers (including four Wilson INTs), seven punts, ten drives without a first down, and one score that required a trick pass from the punter to a tackle.
Last three possessions: touchdown, touchdown (from an onside, with a ridiculous two-point conversion), touchdown.
Wilson threw towards Jermaine Kearse five times today: four interceptions...and a game winning touchdown!
The camera coverage of the poor kid for GB who couldn't gather in the onside kick...of teary-eyed Russell Wilson...of Seattle's #72 on the bicycle after the game...of Pete Carroll dancing around after the game just basking in the joy of victory...of Mike McCarthy mouthing the words "Unbelievable" to Carroll after the game.
Unbelievable is right.
4:30 pm) haiku 14...
An overtime game
To decide who wins conference
And who's a loser.
Damn, no pressure....
4:20 pm) haiku 13...
Between that field goal
And the insane conversion,
What a mad finish!
4:15 pm) Poor Bostick.
Between that field goal
And the insane conversion,
What a mad finish!
4:15 pm) Poor Bostick.
Victim of the onside facemask bounce.
So, let's keep a camera staring at him the entire time.
Two other thoughts:
Seattle's streak of leading games extends to 54.
Remember us saying those settling for field goal drives would bite them in the butt?
Two other other thoughts:
Rodgers plays like a warrior, running on that bad leg like that when that's what's given to him.
And Richard Sherman is still playing one-armed.
4:00 pm) haiku 12...
Marshawn did step out,
But it was a great pass and catch,
And they did score soon.
And now the onside...
The ball goes off his facemask
And into Blue hands!
Wouldn't it be wild
If, after all that's happened,
The 'Hawks won like this?
Punting from midfield
When you're down by twelve this late?
You're saying "Game over."
3:40 pm) tweet:
Asked #Packers K Mason Crosby this week if he wanted to kick last-second game-winning FG. Replied big FGs happen before that. That was one.
3:35 pm) haiku10...
Is Mason Crosby
The M-V-P? Four-for-four,
His twelve the difference.
The first two looked frightening, both settling for 19-yard field goals (how many kickers have TWO 19 yarders in a game?), but the last two allowed the Pack to stretch a lead just that much farther, make it that much more inaccessible.
3:30 pm) haiku9...
With three quarters down,
The two teams' offenses have
Just four hundred yards!
3:15 pm) tweet...
All year long, T Garry Gilliams has spent part of his warm-up session catching balls in the end zone. He finally got to do it for real.
3:10 pm) haiku8...
Sometimes all it takes
Is "holder-lobs-to-lineman";
Now, we've got a game.
But, is it a sign of desperation when the only chance you have to score is an outrageous trick field goal where the holder throws to a freak'n tackle eligible? Or is it just Pete Carroll using what he had at hand to jump start his team? We'll find out soon...
2:55) haiku7...
Expecting, post-game,
To hear that Wilson played with
A torn quad muscle...
In all seriousness, sometimes it just isn't your day. It's starting to look that way for the Blue Man Group. Serves us right for posting that stat that mentioned that they just set a record last week by having a lead in their 53rd consecutive game. Looks like 54 may not happen.
2:50) haiku6...
Add to The Legend?
Come back from a half like THAT
And win the title!
2:45) tweet...
Wilson completed 2 passes for 12 yards to the Seahawks in the 1st half. He completed 3 passes for 53 yards to the Packers in the 1st half.
2:25) It's hard to believe that, AT HOME, Seattle completes its first pass 26 minutes in, got its initial first down 23 minutes in. And yet, with a TD this drive, they're right back in it!
Whoops. Interception number three, turnover number four. Green Bay ball. Again. Russell Wilson is currently 1-8, 14 yards, 3 INT, 0 TD. One run for two yards. Yuck....
2:15) tweet:
#Packers have had five possessions inside #Seahawks 33 and only 16 points to show for it. But if defense keeps playing like this ...
2:10) haiku5...
It's a rare game where
BOTH teams are really nervous.
(And they both SHOULD be!)
Seattle's had three turnovers already, no first downs, eleven yards of offense. Green Bay's had EVERYTHING go their way and still only have sixteen points? They should have double that at this point, and against the defenders, ya gotta believe it'll bite 'em in the ass....
2:05) tweet... I'd say Aaron came prepared to play here!
- I don't know how Rodgers is hard-counting the Seahawks in this environment, but this is their third offsides today.
Reply
Retweet
Favorite2:00) haiku4...
This is exciting!
If 'Hawks really ARE "Super",
They'll get to prove it!
1:55) Tweets from the guys covering the game...
From @ESPNStatsInfo: First time Seahawks have trailed by at least 13 pts at the end of the 1st quarter of any home game since Week 9 of 2010
1:45) Haiku3...
There is a party
On the left side of the field:
YOU'LL never see it!
Seriously, if Green Bay can't cash in a touchdown this drive, they should quit and go home, because field goals will NOT cut it!
1:40) Haiku2...
ANOTHER fumble?
What's that football COATED with,
Preparation H?
1:35) GREAT interception by Sherman on the first Packer drive; great defensive stands after the two Seahawk turnovers (with help from the unsportsmanlike penalty). It should be 21-0; instead, it's six points for the Packers, one Wilson drive away from losing. Hard to think they won't regret that.
1:15) Haiku...
Seattle / Green Bay:
It's much more fun to watch when
You don't care who wins!
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