AFL update

Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...

North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.

In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).

On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:

Lance Franklin					SYD		148
Patrick Dangerfield					GEEL		146
Luke Parker					SYD		126
Jarrad Waite					NMK		101
Tom J Lynch					GCS		98
Joel Selwood					GEEL		97
Dan Hannebury					SYD		92
Max Gawn					MEL		92
Lachie Hunter					WB		90
Rory Sloane					ADE		90

Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!

As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...). 

Weekend Wapp-up Wezults...

Moral of the story... letting family come in the way of football hurts your prognostication prowess! (On the other hand, letting football come in the way of family is FAR WORSE CRIME.) We did well with the Aussies; no complaints on the CFL or NFL, although they could've been better; but our college predictions, so good last week, were well under five-hundred yesterday - while our Saturday was (more appropriately) spent with the oldest son off at college visiting (and stocking his pantry and gas tank!). Nevertheless: priorities, priorities...

CFL: Hard to complain when we go 1-3, partly because this season is NUTS in the CFL, partly because we still outscored many experts! However, we went 1-2-1 against the spread, getting a win from Hamilton (appropriate, as that's the son's name!) and a push from the Winnipeg/Saskatchewan game, while Ottawa and Edmonton pulled the mild upsets.

AFL: Hit three of the four out of the park - it will indeed be West Coast and Fremantle hosting the preliminary finals in west Australia in two weeks, and Adelaide did manage to beat the Western Bulldogs on the <ahem> "home" grounds of the MCG by seven points; our one miss was Richmond's loss at the hands of the well-rested North Melbourne Kangaroos, who were allowed to rest half their team last week in prep for this game. North plays at Sydney next Saturday, and Adelaide plays at Hawthorn on Friday; the winners return to west Australia the following weekend for the shot at the Grand Final.

NFL: Went 7-7 so far against the spread (NOTE to the uninitiated: the NFL is the HARDEST to make a living at betting on because of the parity of the league. Our model assumes only about a fourteen point gap from team 1 to team 32 on the best of days; certain conditions reduce that even further.) and 8-6 straight up, with two more games to go tomorrow night. Very impressed with Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cincy today!

NCAA: Well, let's see...
--> TOP TIER GAMES: Oddly, we were 3-0 against the spread but only 1-2 straight up. (Check the original post for the specific games and predictions - too many to list!) Oregon and Mississippi St covered, but only the Sooners came through for the win.

--> OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST: We went 12-4 straight up (with some more leaners that I should have been more explicit about claiming) but only 9-13 against the spread. (Particularly proud of picking in Houston's favor!)

-->BLOWOUTS: Of course all thirteen won (ahem - we're looking at YOU, Auburn! Very pleased for Jacksonville St!) but we only picked the right side of the spread explosion on five of the thirteen.

--> OTHER FBS: Actually, we did better on these than I thought we had... we went 15-11 against the spread, which we'll take; and we were 24-2 straight up (the two upsets being Bowling Green's rout of Big Ten's Maryland, 48-27 IN Maryland, and the worst of the SEC wounds, Arkansas' 16-12 loss to Toledo from the MAC, 16-12).  So, over all in the FBS choices, we went 32-32 against the spread - coin toss - and 50-8 straight up.

--> FCS GAMES: Here is where we fell on our faces... we may have managed 11-6 straight up (not as impressive as it sounds) but we were an abysmal 4-13 against the spread in the FCS only games. We plead ignorance, but we were the ones who picked which games to name, so that's no excuse. We did slightly better overall in the FCS games, and while our overall betting record this week was 61-14 straight up and just 36-45 against the spread; our record including games we didn't share ahead of time was three below 50% on points. (Can't claim it, though, unless we'd said it first.)

....OVERALL, then, here are our 2015 records so far:
AFL - 146 right and 55 wrong overall; 118-83 against the spread.
CFL - 27 right and 21 wrong overall.
NFL - 7 and 7 overall; 8 and 6 against the spread; two games still pending.
NCAA - 131 and 24 overall; 83 right against the spread and 72 wrong. 

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Responsibility and Integrity of the Game

What is the responsibility of a team to put out its best players for a regular season game, even when it's not otherwise in their best interest to do so?

It seems to happen in a game or two every year, regardless of sport. End of season, one team with something to play for, the other not so much - either because they've got their playoff spot locked up, or they're just biding their time having already been eliminated. (You see it in the NBA mid-year sometimes, when a coach will rest older stars after a tough stretch of games.) Does the second team have an obligation to put a competitive team out there in such a game - either "for the paying customers" or, more usually, "for the integrity of the game"?

As the last round of the AFL season approaches this weekend, there are a couple of games in which this very question arises. Fremantle, having already locked up home field advantage, has no statistical reason to play its stars, and every motivation to rest them for next week's critical opening playoff game. As many as ten of its best players may sit out Saturday's game against ninth place Port Adelaide; fortunately, this game ended up having no bearing on playoff positions, as Port cannot break into the top eight under any circumstances. It did change the betting line from a fairly even game in Adelaide to the current line of almost fifty points in Port's favor, though. Oddly, where it's going to have an impact is in the WAFL, where Fremantle's "minor league feeder team", the Peel Thunder, plays. Peel is in its opening playoff round this weekend...but needs to supply up to ten players to the Dockers to fill out their roster against Port, leaving it undermanned in a playoff game. Business is business, but that seems terribly unfair to the team you've partnered with!

The more punitive scenario this week happens in Melbourne, where Friday's Richmond/North Melbourne match has been sullied (my words) by North's decision to rest up to ten of ITS players this weekend in anticipation of playing the Tigers again next week in an elimination final. By essentially conceding this game (and foregoing, by the way, the potential possibility of moving up as high as sixth if Western were to lose big, and therefore earning a home game themselves!), North has also prevented the Adelaide Crows from the possibility of passing Richmond and thus earning themselves a home game next week, a fact which has the Crows management understandably incensed. The Kangaroos' defense hinges on the fact that they've had two short weeks of preparation in a row (Sunday to Saturday, Saturday to Friday) and the players have been impacted by that: a defensible argument, admittedly. Broadcaster and retired superstar Wayne Carey sported a frightening thought on afl.com.au's "Pick A Winner" broadcast Thursday:

"The Kangaroos now can put in 8-10 players that are not going to play finals footy. They can go out and maim Richmond players," Carey said on AFL.com.au's Pick A Winner.

"They can go hard, they can be told by Brad Scott 'Go out there, hit this side as hard as you can, because it looks like we'll be playing them again next week'.

"I think the AFL really opened up a can of worms here and watch this space."

Carey said the Roos resting players was "a completely different situation" to minor premiers Fremantle sparing up to 11 regular players a final round trip to face Port Adelaide, because the Dockers-Power clash won't affect finals positions.

"Whereas I think this does manipulate where the Kangaroos and obviously the Tigers and Adelaide (finish), so it does have some bearing on the finals," Carey said.

"This rule has to change, because now the one game that had something riding on it all of a sudden has been manipulated by resting players."

(By the way, Carey was a North Melbourne player himself, so this isn't about bias...)

Another situation that happens along these lines is whether or not bottom of the ladder teams need to play their top line players at the end of the season when competing against sides that have "something to play for" or, as is generally accepted, run some youngsters through the mill after their own elimination from contention to see what the potential is for next year and beyond. Very few people question that use of a roster, and in fact if your first team isn't getting the job done, it's often the case that injecting that fresh blood into the lineup will improve the performance of the team anyway!

But what if you're in a system (like virtually every major professional sport is) where your draft order is determined by the reverse order of finish? Doesn't it behoove teams like Brisbane, Carlton, and Gold Coast in the AFL to lose as many games as they can to secure the highest draft position they can? In America, it's the NBA which has suffered under the strongest perception of this tanking prospect (I can think of 76 situations off the top of my head...). and it's what drove the league into the lottery system thirty years ago - a solution which hasn't solved the problem. To their credit, it's hard to make an argument that any of the three AFL teams named has overtly tanked this last month or so - they're just not very good, to be honest. But how do you draw the line?

It brings to mind the high school basketball tournament where both teams tried to lose a game at the same time to avoid playing the top seeded team...and if you click on the link, you'll see just how comical it got. Justifiably, both teams were suspended and removed from the tournament.

But it goes back to sportsmanship, and how you choose to answer the question, "What do we as a team owe the sport, owe the league, and owe our own integrity?"

It seems everyone has a different answer. Many people feel completely justified in the Al Davis / Oakland Raiders approach, "Just Win, Baby!"...which, ironically, doesn't always include the need to try to win; as long as you're doing what's in YOUR best interest, that's all that matters.

I disagree.

There's a risk any time you take the field, yes, but you cannot "turn it on and off" like a switch - ask the Manning Colts in those years when they ran up those 13-1 records and coasted the last couple of games...and proceeded to lose game one of the playoffs to a team who was still in competition mode. If you have legitimately injured players, by all means, rest them. But NEVER tell your players to give less than their best on the field - that's when injuries occur. If you're charging full price for your tickets, your fans deserve a full price game. (Which brings up the travesty of charging full price for pre-season tickets, but that's a subject you can already tell which side of the fence we'll fall on...)

In the end, morals and good sportsmanship MUST win out. If other teams are depending on you to play a fair and competitive game, you need to do so - despite legislative opinion to the contrary, pro sports leagues are ONE entity, working out of a dozen or three franchises, and anything one does that hurts the entirety of the league is a mistake. If that needs to be "legislated" by a commissioner or governing body, you shouldn't be running a sports team: you haven't learned the basics of "sports-man-ship" yet.

Youw Weekend Wesults!

Along the four fronts we call home here at Following Football ACNC, results for the weekend are all in, and they're still sparse enough for us to cover everything in one post...so here we go! 

Australian Footy: As we posted Friday morning, the final eight are set, with still one final home-and-away round to go next weekend. In fact, given the results of the Round 22 games, even the placements are pretty secure, at least for the top four (which, some would argue, are all that matter in the AFL).

Fremantle doubled up Melbourne, 108-54, clinching the top spot and the first "minor premiership" (regular season championship)in their twenty-something year history! They will host a game in Fremantle against the number 4 seed, almost certainly Sydney, who wiped out St. Kilda 135-38 Sunday and needs just a win against injury-riddled Gold Coast to secure the trip west.

Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles, who had a chance to catch the Dockers, lost that chance and possibly their key defense back to a shoulder injury when Adelaide utterly obliterated them 51-1 in the first quarter, and won the game by 57 in cruise control. West Coast shouldn't have those problems against the above mentioned St. Kilda team, and would then host the #2/#3 game in Perth against the two-time premier defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, who did beat the Eagles (in PERTH!) a few weeks back but who would finish third assuming WC takes care of business (and Hawthorn beats Carlton, whom our FF Ratings have them favored to beat by almost ninety points!) The winners of these two Qualifying Finals get the next weekend off and host the survivors of the semifinals, which the losers would then have to play against the winners of the other two games...

...which pit seeds eight at five and seven at six next weekend. The four teams are set, but not the order. Western earned a likely home game by beating the Kangaroos 96-73, and will only have to defeat last-place Brisbane to secure that spot. The other likely host is Richmond, 74-47 winners over beleaguered Essendon Saturday, who will host North Melbourne's Roos in what may very well be the first of a two-weekend double header if the Tigers hold serve at home as they're favored to do. Meanwhile, Western will probably host Adelaide, on a steamroll at the moment as described above (although they played recently and the Bulldogs did beat the Crows). 

In other, less meaningful games, GWS beat Carlton 130-51, Collingwood ended the meaning of Geelong's season as mentioned Friday, 110-62, and Port Adelaide continued to irritate Power supporters by showing how good they CAN be and whomping Gold Coast 88-51.

Canadian Football: Labor Day Monday is shaping up to be a doubleheader barnburner up north, as four teams are separating from the pack. Calgary beat Winnipeg on the road handily, 36-8, to go to a league-leading 7 and 2 record at the halfway mark of the season. (Winnipeg is 3-6.) Edmonton sits one game back in the west at 6-3, overpowering Toronto 38-15, knocking the Argos back to 6-3 as well. Finally, Hamilton fell to 6-3 as well, allowing Montreal to climb within one game of .500, upset by the Alouettes 26-23. Those four teams at 6-3 and above play each other on Sept 7 in clashes that will decide the leader of each division: Edmonton at Calgary, and Toronto at Hamilton. Who's the next best team, at 5-4? Why, it's the surprising Ottawa Redblacks, who sent poor Saskatchewan to its ninth straight loss today with a 35-13 walkthrough.

NCAA Football: Sure, it's "only" FCS, but the D1 season got off to a BANG of a start Saturday with the five-time defending champion North Dakota St Bison traveling to the hardest place to play in the FCS - Missoula - to play the #12 ranked Montana Grizzlies. The game was everything it should have been and more: legendary lower division coach Bob Stitt made his FCS debut at UM with his unique flying offense, and was rewarded with a last second touchdown to upset the Bison, 38-35. As Brent Musberger said on air, if that's what we have to look forward to in 2015, bring it on! Several D3 and NAIA games took place on the 27th as well, including one of local interest for us - the College of Idaho upset the #13 (NAIA) Southern Oregon visitors 40-21 to open their season: particularly exciting for a team in its second year of existence. In fact, this blog was born the same day the Yotes played their first game! So, congratulations, birthmates! Here's hoping we BOTH have that kind of success all season long!

NFL Football: Of course, everyone is zero-and-zero right now! The games this weekend weren't particularly newsworthy in a specific sense, but there were teams that looked better than others - Oakland impressed tonight (at least, their first teams did), and so did Buffalo's and Cleveland's. Tom Brady finallly one good drive, his last before the DeflateGate case is settled and any punishment is served. Michael Vick had a good outing with the Bills; Sam Bradford has looked good for the Eagles; Nick Foles for the Rams, and Alex Smith for the Chiefs. Later this week, maybe on Thursday or Friday, we'll put together our Opening Tiers for the pro and college FBS levels of American football - very broad categories, no more than three or four tiers in total, which will serve as our starting points for the Following Football predictions to come this season. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT: we may have gone out on a limb and made some bold predictions as to the overall seasons the teams will have, but for GAME by GAME predictions? We will base our projections SOLELY on the work the teams are doing THIS YEAR, as much as possible, and the same goes for our "rankings". The FBS "rankings" will have something like a 32-way tie for first before we get underway, and THOSE only because there are certain things that are immutable from season to season. (Oklahoma will NOT be worse than Georgia State. I guarantee it.)

WEEKEND WESULTS - a day late!

Sometimes the first day of the school year slaps you in the face... and you don't get your Monday blog post out on time! (And sometimes you don't get it out on time and there's no good excuse at all!)

SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!

IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.

Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.

To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.

As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!

UPS and DOWNS for August Week 3!

Welcome back to another edition of UPS and DOWNS, friends! Without further ado...

UP - SALIVATION LEVELS for AMERICAN FOOTBALL! It's amazing what some meaningless pre-season, week one games with actual NFL uniforms pounding into each other can do to the American, football-starved public! Not a single meaningful occurrence this weekend on the gridiron in the US, and yet tastebuds are prepared, appetites are salivating, and nowhere more than in Philadelphia, where they've been watching Chip Kelly's shenanigans for months now without anything to actually base an OPINION on! So, with four quarters under their belts against Indianapolis, they finally have barroom conversation - most of which will be based around Tim Tebow.

DOWN - SANTA CLAUS. Which reminds us: How BAD of a guy can Santa Claus be if a Philly crowd can give Tim Tebow a standing O before he plays a single down for them, and BOO Santa Claus? Whose opinion do I need to adjust? My opinion of Tebow, or Santa?

UP - THE WILD WEST! If we have to name two surprise teams in the Australian Footy League this year (in an "up" context!), it would have to be the two "Wests" - the West Coast Eagles, based in Perth, on the (you guessed it) west coast of Australia (currently sitting in second place when we and most others predicted they would yet again fail to reach the top eight), and the Western Bulldogs, who are 'western' only in the sense that the University of Michigan is the "champion of the west", as their fight song says. It was a different time. Western IS rather 'western' as the greater Melbourne area goes, and as the state of Victoria goes, which is where the Western (previously Footscray) Bulldogs are located. But Western's sitting fourth after a string of impressive victories, including the most thrilling 76-2 quarter and a half you'll ever watch en route to a 98 point win Sunday. It wasn't that Melbourne was bad, either - it's just that Western's players were moving SO FAST that the poor Demons had no shot at keeping up. From the Melbourne Demon point of view, it was the least embarrassing 76-2 run imaginable. If that makes sense. This weekend, Western travels TO the West Coast in a showdown of fast moving offenses and stellar defenses, and it's very possible that they'll meet again down the road in September during finals...even the Grand Final, perhaps!

DOWN - THE ESSENDON DONS.  Finally, finally, Essendon "parted ways" with their 'head coach' James Hird today - three days after yet another listless defeat (and that's complimentary to lists, who wouldn't want to be associated with it), this time to Adelaide 171-59, who ran around them like they were "witches' hats" (traffic cones, Yanks). Quite simply, the players stopped caring weeks ago. They'd play hard for a while, and it would be competitive for a quarter, maybe two. But once the other team started playing and passed them, that was it. And that's what happened last weekend - again - the Dons actually led by a goal after one, 4.3.27 to 3.3.21 (that reads, 4 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 27 for Essendon; 3 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 21 for Adelade). Which means the LAST three quarters went 24 goals to 4, Adelaide's way, and 150 points to 32. And remember, Adelaide's a middle of the pack team. Heaven forbid they met up with Hawthorn or West Coast right now. Hird's departure comes only a day or two after he defiantly told reporters he was still the right man for the job, and in today's press conference he was "dutifully stepping away for the benefit of the players",

If you've followed Hird's insipid handling of the season, you'll get a great laugh out of these quotes from the Tuesday presser, which I suspect...well, read this first:

"I'm not disappointed [that] the club's let me down," Hird said. 

"The reason for this decision is to enable the players and the supporters some space to perform and be a normal football club again.

"I didn't know it would come to this [but] I felt that the club needed space. There was a question mark there and that was enough to say, let's try something else. 

"These players have to be allowed to play. It's not just about me resigning or moving on, the industry has to let them play and give them some space. 

"It's not their fault. I think the industry should give them a break.

"My hesitation in leaving this club at this time is because I believe the players still need strong guidance and care, which I hope to continue to provide from a distance." 

That's right, friends - James Hird is the martyr here, heroically stepping aside so that the players can be "allowed to play". My favorite part, personally, is that he's "not disappointed the club's let ME down"...as if it's THEIR fault you couldn't be bothered to coach this year when that team so DESPERATELY needed some real guidance and coaching, maybe more than any team EVER in the league's history following the worst team doping scandal in sports history. 

Not to pre-empt PROPHECIES in tomorrow's Following Football, but I suspect Essendon's going to play a whole lot better the last three games this season...

Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

AFL Round 14 in review

The biggest rout of the year took place on Sunday afternoon (which was Saturday night here in the US), when St Kilda upset free-falling Essendon by the astronomical score of 162-52, a 110-point victory!

Throughout the game, the Saints played against a defense that resembled cones in a practice drill (or "witches' hats", if you prefer the down under term). To score 25 goals in a game is hard to do in a game of footy, but the lack of energy in the Bomber personnel was, to be kind, disheartening.

The commemoration of murdered Adelaide head coach Phil Walsh, begun Friday night at the Collingwood/Hawthorn game, continued at every game throughout the weekend - a stirring tribute to a fellow "lifer" from the footy community. The idea that teams can go tooth-and-nail for two hours and then come together and live out the Adelaide 2015 campaign motto, #weflyasone, was superb. We posted Rohan Connelly's plea to continue the camaraderie beyond this weekend, and we join him in those pleas.

As for the actual games that were played this weekend... 

Sydney over Port Adelaide by 10; Hawthorn by 10 over Collingwood; Richmond struggled past a toughened GWS with a nine-point win, and Western had the same difficulty with Carlton before they managed an eleven-point victory. Gold Coast welcomed both David Swallow and dual-Brownlow winner Gary Ablett Jr. back Saturday, and apparently that was all they needed, as they annihilated the North Melbourne Kangaroos 125-70 (and it wasn't that close). We talked about St Kilda's 110-point whipping of Essendon, but the West Coast Eagles beat up on Melbourne as well, winning 114-60. Brisbane held up against league-leader Fremantle for three quarters, tied throughout in wet, messy conditions that made it a tackler's paradise (more tackles were made in this game than every game ever except one (a game (there was a Richmond/Port game in 2010 with an unimaginable 258 tackles, or one every 25 seconds or so. Ridiculous.) Unfortunately, there are four quarters, and Freo scored seven goals to one in the last to win, 84-48.  

The Adelaide / Geelong game was cancelled, but the stadium was opened for fans to come onto the field and pay their respects, kick the football around parts of the field, and share their grief with other mourners. Adelaide is presumed to be back to work next week, with a game at West Coast on Saturday evening.

The stabbing death of Coach Phil Walsh

At 2 a.m. Friday, Adelaide Crows coach Phil Walsh, 55, was stabbed to death by his 26-year old son, Cy Jacob Walsh, in a domestic dispute that also injured Mrs. Walsh with non-threatening injuries.

The entire footy world has united in grief over the loss of AFL lifer Walsh, who also spent time coaching in Port Adelaide and West Coast, as well as playing in Brisbane, Collingwood, and Richmond.

His Crows team were scheduled to play Geelong this weekend at home in the Adelaide Oval; the game was cancelled but the remainder of the weekend's slate of games will go on as scheduled. Friday night, in a classic matchup between heavyweights Hawthorn and Collingwood (which the premiers won 101-91 in a tight competitive game), the two teams came together after the game in an unscheduled moment of prayer which saw the two teams interspersed between each other - Hawthorn, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Collingwood,... - in a beautiful moment of salute.

Of course, tributes from players and the entire AFL community have poured out on Twitter and Instagram, but the best words came from detective commissioner Des Bray, investigating the murder: 

"For any family, regardless of who it is, is one of the worst things that you could imagine that could happen to you," he said.
"The only thing that is different with this is that he has a high profile. The pain and suffering of the family is no different."

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Australian update...

As for the AFL, hitting its midseason lull for the three bye weeks to give players a chance to recover a little bit (what LeBron James wouldn't have done for a bye week to recover during the NBA finals!), the league-leading Fremantle Dockers have finally hit a bit of a lull themselves, first losing to Richmond in week 10 and then barely hanging on to beat last-place Gold Coast by seven points this last Saturday!

This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend. 

Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.

Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:

Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).

Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).

Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

A couple of interesting retirements in Australian Rules...

Brent Reilly, longtime Adelaide Crow who recently passed his 200th game, is retiring amidst his recovery from a horrible skull fracture in a training accident back in February. His doctor has advised him never to play contact sports again with the danger of recurrence to his skull, and for obvious reasons he's agreed. One of the great aspects of Aussie Rules is the "manliness" of playing without helmet or padding - but sometimes casualties occur. Interestingly, more injuries seem to happen with American style football, because of the protective gear - you don't see Aussie players leading with their heads, for example, or hitting each other as hard as the linemen do in the NFL. Rarely have any retired footy players had trouble with concussion or head injury issues for those reasons. Still, it's hard to see someone like Brent Reilly have to retire early because of something like this.

On the other hand, here's a different reason for an early retirement that I've almost never heard of in the NFL - only the legendary Pat Tillman comes to mind...

Kane Cornes, fast approaching his 300th game at Port Adelaide (a huge milestone!), has decided to retire immediately following that game on May 23rd. The reason? He's been offered a position as a firefighter for the city of Adelaide.

Picture Shaquille O'Neal actually following through on his thought to become a Miami undercover cop, and you've got an idea what this means in Australia. 

Cornes is about to be the only player in Port Adelaide's history to play 300 AFL games, a testament to his durability and ability...and yet, he's ready to step aside now, just because it's a convenient time to start his firefighter training. (He also doesn't want to risk any more injuries in advance of his retirement, although he's been remarkably durable over his 3oo games.)

Amazing.

AFL Week Five in review...

Some interesting games this weekend! The last two may have been the most intriguing! 

Port def. Adelaide in the 38th Showdown, and there were stars galore out to perform!  The Power won by 24, and Robbie Gray was named the Outstanding Player, although Chad Wingard and Eddie Betts were among the great performers last night! And Essendon squeaked out an 82-80 victory over lowly St. Kilda, but if professionals can have moral victories, the Saints definitely earned one for this game against the Bombers. The third game Sunday was another Fremantle clinic, a 64-point demolition of quickly-improving Melbourne.

As to the earlier games this weekend, the ones that kept me up all night Friday (!),...
- Collingwood annihilated Carlton by 75 to ruin Blues' coach Mick Malthouse's celebration of his record breaking 715th game...
- Geelong surprised Richmond with a great first half and held on to win by nine...
- Hawthorn showed their championship form by defeating a surprisingly overmatched Kangaroos club 130-70...
- West Coast poured cold water on the flames of the Greater Western Sydney juggernaut, making them look like the youngest franchise again by holding them to one goal over the last three quarters, and won 120-33 (not a typo!)...
- Brisbane took hold of last place by losing badly to fellow zero-win Queensland resident Gold Coast by 64 points.
- And, as mentioned in yesterday's post, the Western Bulldoggies showed they are absolutely REAL, running out to a lead on Sydney early, and then coming back with a game-winning goal late in the fourth after the Swans had come all the way back to take the lead.

Current standings
5-0: Fremantle
4-1: Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
3-2: Hawthorn, West Coast, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon
2-3: Richmond, Geelong, No. Melbourne, Melbourne
1-4: St. Kilda, Carlton, Gold Coast
0-5: Brisbane Lions.

AFL's Week 3 results...

Collingwood 140, St. Kilda 66... The Saints started strong, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with almost anyone in the AFL.

Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.

Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.

Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.

Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.

Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.

Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.

Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.

Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.

Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.

AFL Week One In Review...

Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:

Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78  (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)

Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:

Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2	87.1
Sydney Swans (1-0) #5	74.5
Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10	72.1
Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1	70.7
Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9	69.5
Geelong Cats (0-1) #17	57.9
N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18	55.6
West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12	55.6
Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3	55.1
Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13	52.5
Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15	42.2
Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6	37.3
Carlton Blues (0-1) #16	36.4
Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7	35.2
GWS Giants (1-0) #8	31.0
Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14	29.9
Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4	26.0
St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11	11.4

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!