Showing posts with label Appalachian St. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Appalachian St. Show all posts

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Here's our predictions for the rest of the FBS conferences!

Having just posted our predictions for the Power Five conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and SEC), it's time to take a look at the other five conferences in the Bowl Subdivision - the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt Conference. Here we go!

The American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East):
*Six teams will vie for the title, so the champ may have two or even three conf losses!
*In the West, Memphis looks the class, although Houston will host them on Nov 14 and could steal the division with a win there.
*Navy's joined a conference for the first time in their 135 years of football! Looking at 3rd...
*Tulane should beat Tulsa at home and lock up 4th, while SMU will be better than last year, even if it doesn't get them out of the basement.
*In the East, it's easier to start at the bottom: UConn 6th, and South Florida 5th.
*All four of the others should thrash each other into a 5-3 logjam! We'll wager on East Carolina 1st, Central Florida 2nd, and Cincinnati 3rd with Temple in 4th. But who knows?
*Given that, we'll take Memphis to win the title game.

Conference USA:
*The winner of the Marshall at Western Kentucky game wins the division and the title.
*As of this moment? We'll lean on the revenge factor and pick the Thundering Herd.
*Middle Tennessee heads a distant pack behind them in the East.
*Pencil in Old Dominion, FIU, FAU, and newcomer UNC-Charlotte in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
*Nobody in the West can punch with WKU or Marshall, but Louisiana Tech should get the chance.
*If not, it'll be Rice - they've developed a good system there.
*UTEP should be able to rise to third, and then it depends on some ball bounces: 
*We're thinking Southern Miss rises to 4th, North Texas 5th, and UTSA falls back to sixth.

Mid-American Conference (the MAC):
*They've marketed a marginal conference well - the Tuesday and Wednesday night games on ESPN, the "#MACtion" tweets, and all the exciting play from clever coaches. 
*The power division here is the West, where by throwing their names in a hat I came up with:
*Northern Illinois winning the division (most experience winning).
*Toledo 2nd, Western Michigan fighting a tough schedule for third, and Ball St in 4th.
*Central Michigan is an easy 5th place pick, because the top 4 are significantly better, and...
*Eastern Michigan is conceivably the worst team in football, at least this year in the FBS.
*In the East, Bowling Green is the class of the division (though they'll lose the title game).
*Only Terry Bowden's Akron has a shot to dethrone them, with Frank Solich's Ohio team in third. 
*Four bad teams round out the MAC-East: U-Mass (bad), Buffalo (bad), Kent St (really bad), and Miami of Ohio (so bad Miami-FL makes them distinguish that they are not the same school). 

Mountain West conference:
* This year, it should be Boise State and the eleven dwarves, but that remains to be proven. 
*Boise's rating numbers are so far above everyone else's that they should be 8-0 in conference, with only a tough out-of-conf schedule to manage. If they goes 3-1 there, they should be playing in a major bowl again. 
*Utah St figures to give them the best battle, although they've hit some rocky stretches here.
*CSU, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico round out the Mountain division, in that order.
*In the West, six mediocre teams fight for the division title, with San Diego St looking like the best candidate for the job,
*Nevada's coming up on the rail for 2nd, and Fresno St's struggling this off-season. 
*San Jose may still be 4th, but not for lack of trying. Meanwhile, Hawaii will put some wins on the home field, and UNLV won't.

Sun Belt Conference:
*I know - this should've been in yellow...but Appalachian St and Georgia Southern are the 1-2 teams here...Only the two of them, plus maybe 3rd place Arkansas St and maybe 4th place Louisiana Lafayette would have a chance to win even one game in any other conference. Even the MAC or Conf-USA!
*Texas State is the best of the rest, and should be able to pull off a .500 or better record in league.
*After that, it's turtles all the way down. 
*Depending on how South Alabama takes to its 10-15 new players who were with UAB last year before their one year hiatus, they could be as high as sixth (maybe fifth?). Or UL-Monroe will slide from 7th up to 6th...
*Below that are four of the five Bottom Five teams to start the season (most likely): Troy in 8th; New Mexica St (9th), Idaho (10th), and Georgia State (11th).

So, to recap - the Bottom Five would be Troy,  NMSU, the Vandals, Georgia State, and Eastern Michigan, along with their intern, newbie Charlotte from the C-USA. (If we're counting Army as a non-Power conference team, then the Cadets from West Point will be in that Bottom mix as well.) Boise State should repeat as the Power of Five rep in the New Year's Six bowl games, and the conference champs will include Appalachian State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, and Memphis.

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Reviewing our Week 10 predictions!

Well, if you've been with us this week, you know we've been firing on all cylinders in Week 10! Here's our results...

Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.

Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)

(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!

Saturday, November 8, 2014

What an insane afternoon of football!!!!

Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.

Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.

Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.

Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!

We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...

Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!

Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.

The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.

An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]

While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....

Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.

A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field. 


Thursday, November 6, 2014

Week 10 is upon us!

Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games! 

As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.

We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.

So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)

***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.

***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)

***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.

***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.

***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.

***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.

***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!


Sunday, October 12, 2014

And let's not forget the Bottom Eight!

The Bottom Eight is represented by SMU of Conference USA, who at 0-5 seems without hope of a win this year; three teams from the MAC: Miami of Ohio (1-5), UMass (1-5), and the current loser du jour, Kent St (0-6, 40-17 victims of Massachusetts). The master of the Bottom Eight, however, is the Sun Belt conference, whose mediocrity is so profound that we have to expand to 8 1/2 for the week to accommodate it! Definitely in are winless Idaho (0-6, who managed to fail against the wide spread they faced this week) and newbie Appalachian St (1-5, who managed to lose to FCS Liberty). The other two spots are shared by three other SBC schools: New Mexico St (2-5), Troy (1-5), and Georgia St (1-5), who are beating each other up for those coveted final Bottom Eight spots!

Also waiting for a table... Ball St (1-5), UConn (1-5), and the Pointer Sisters of the Poor: Southern Miss, North Texas, and Eastern Michigan (all 2-4, by sheer will power and patsy FCS scheduling).

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Daytime games - NCAA Week 6

* We HAVE to start with the outrageous game in Waco, where Baylor (and the home town refs and timekeepers) came from three TDs down in the 4th Q to outscore TCU 61-58.

In football, that is. Not basketball.

TCU's defense had gotten so exhausted by the time they had the ball at 58-all in the last two minutes that coach Patterson felt the need to go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield. A neglected PI call gave the Bears the ball, and they got down close enough on the non-neglected call for their frosh kicker to win the game. Amazing offensive display, an all-time record for points in a top ten game. TCU's 78 offensive plays would be impressive were it not for Baylor's 113 plays run! No wonder the Frog D was tired!

* Michigan St again wins its B1G game, but again allows their adversary a multi-TD comeback that threatens their win, in this case over Purdue 45-31. Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice...

* Somehow Oklahoma managed to go up 17-3 on Texas while getting only one first down over the first quarter. The Longhorns trailed at halftime while outgaining the Sooners by over 200 yards. Return touchdowns will do that for a team... By game's end, Texas had out possessed OU by sixteen minutes, outgained them by 250 yards, out first downed them 24-11, and lost 31-26. 

* It seems Kent St is really bad. UMass, losers of twelve straight, came to the Flash's home field and won 40-17. Can't explain how. Our Bottom Eight tomorrow will be MAC heavy, with Miami of Ohio joining both teams in there somewhere.

* The Sun Belt will be well represented as well, led by Appalachian St, who invited former FCS rival Liberty to town and lost in OT, 55-48.  As many as five Sun Belt schools may darken the basement doors of our Bottom Eight tomorrow, as New Mexico St made their bid by losing to previously winless Troy handily, 41-24.

* When your first two plays from scrimmage are turnovers resulting in immediate TDs for your opponent, it's hard to win on the road - and sure 'nuff, Auburn fell at Mississippi St 38-23, in a battle of Tier 1 teams in the rain today. Dak Prescott's this year's Cam Newton or Tim Tebow, as CBS kept reminding us, but it's a fair comparison. Here's hoping for a pro career closer to Cam's...

*Minnesota won 24-17 on a 100-yd kickoff return after Northwestern tied the game. Great work being done at the U of M, as it is at Kentucky (cupcake winners against ULM today, but given their history, hard to argue) and at Duke, where they stomped all over 5-0 Georgia Tech after a long storm delay.