Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 

Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)

The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN

We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.

So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?

Optimism is such a wonderful thing!

ESPN asked each of its bloggers assigned to each of the 32 teams in the NFL to predict their team's record, independently of the other 31 bloggers. 

They did so.

The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.

Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.

That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting? 

So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:

NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11. 
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)

Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!

We don't even know where to start. 

St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?

New Orleans having a fire sale?

San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?

The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).

Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)

And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?

I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming. 

When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.

(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)

Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...

More NFL trade talk...

And the hits keep coming... Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets...Is there a positive outcome for either team in the Nick Foles to the Rams/Sam Bradford to Philly trade?...Jimmy Graham to Seattle from the Saints makes sense from both sides (New Orleans is WAY over the cap), but it apparently isn't making Graham a happy man!...Finally, Peter King has his usual great insight into the amazing changes throughout the NFL landscape over the last week in his Monday Wednesday Morning Quarterback column, including some interesting notes about the probable number one pick in the draft, Jamies Winston.

NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!

(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)

Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]

So, here's Week 16!

THUR                                          FF Tiers        Vegas line        Sagarin        Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville             Jax -3              Jax -3                 Jax - 3.0            Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington         Phi -7               Phi -9                 Phi - 9.3            Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco   EVEN            SF - 2                SD - 0.7           SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami                      Mia -5              Mia -7                Mia -8.1            Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston              HOU -1          BAL - 6            BAL -1.2         Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago                         Det -5              Det -7                 Det - 4.0           Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina                    Car - 1              Car - 4                Car - 1.0           Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans                  NO - 2             NO - 6.5             NO -3.1             NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay               GB -11              GB - 10.5           GB - 11.3           GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh              Pit -4.5            Pit - 3.5              KC - 1.9           Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets    NE -10.5          NE -10.5           NE -15.2          NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis        StL - 6.5           StL -5                StL - 5.9            StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland                        Buf - 5              Buf -6                Buf - 9.3          Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas                   Dal -1                Dal -3                Indy -1.1         Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona                      Ariz -2            Sea -9             Ariz -0.6         Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati                      Den - 1              Den - 3.5           Den -5.4            Den -2.5     

So, a couple of observations...
   The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).

   Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.

   Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]

SO...who will make the NFL playoffs?

With two weeks left in the season, we're still only down to about twenty teams who can still be one of the twelve playoff teams! Eleven AFC teams are still eligible for the tournament, although three spots were clinched yesterday (division champs Denver, Indianapolis, and New England). Meanwhile, six teams fight for five spots in the NFC, plus the one team who will eventually "win" the NFC Southern division out of three candidates still vying for the spot.

Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:

NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
                       Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
          North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
                           Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
          South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
                         Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
                          Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
          West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
                         Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS: 
   #1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
   #2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
   #3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
   #4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
   #5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
   #6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...

AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
                        Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
                        Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
          North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
                           Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
                           Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
                           Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
          South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
                           Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
         West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
                        Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
                        San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
  #1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
  #2 seed = Denver (13-3)
  #3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
  #4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
  #5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
  #6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...

Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!

PREDICTIONS for Week 15!

Here we go! After a break-even week during the last regular season week of FBS games (although, remember that to our credit, we don't just have to be on the correct side of the line - we have to be closer to the actual result than Vegas was! Much harder to do!), we strive to call the quarter finals for the FCS playoffs and Week 15 of the NFL season...

[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]

THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.

FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.

SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!

FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!

SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!

Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants  over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah! 

MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.

So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...

We never covered how the predictions went this weekend...

...so here we go!

FBS games: Oregon beat Arizona BIG, 51-13 (point Vegas)...Marshall barely edged La-Tech (point us)...Connecticut not only lost to the spread but lost outright to previously winless SMU, 27-20 (point us)...Alabama whupped Missouri in the end, 42-13 (point them)...and we were correct to choose Ohio St over Wisconsin (they squeaked by the Badgers 59-0! - point us!) ----- Score: Vegas 2, FF 3!

FCS games: There were two on our "disagreement" list - we were correct in thinking that Sam Houston would give Jacksonville St fits; they did, and won 37-26. However, Illinois St handled Northern Iowa with ease, 41-21. So ------ Score: Vegas 3, FF 4!

NFL games: Going down the five games we marked (wish we'd thought to mark the Detroit/Tampa discrepancy; we would've won that one!)... St. Louis blanked the Redskins, 24-0 (point them)...the Giants wiped out the Titans, 36-7 (and knocked Tennessee to the Bottom slot, H32; point them)...we were right to think the Saints were in trouble, but even we didn't expect the offensive ineptitude we saw from a Drew Brees-led offense (point us)... Although Arizona won, they only won by three, so by a hair, (point Vegas)...and the Raiders dispatched their cross-bay rivals with ease, 24-13; (point FF). ------ FINAL Score: Vegas 6, FF 6. (Like I said...wished we'd claimed that Detroit game!)

The NFC's mathematics problem...

Take a look at the NFC rankings in particular this week, and their records...

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11

As we see it, there are SIX teams in the NFC who are head and shoulders above the rest - six teams in slots #1-9 in the FF rankings (and basically everyone else's, too), six teams with at least nine wins already, and the next team in the conference doesn't show up until Tier E, #19! With six playoff spots and six good teams, this should be easy...

EXCEPT for the GOSH-DARNED SOUTH Division!

Take another look at where the teams in each division are (we'll just show you the NFC this time...), highlighting the six leaders and the NFC South:

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11

So, there are TWO teams from each of THREE divisions (meaning there will be THREE non-division winners among the six), while the best of the NFC South teams comes in at #22, with #23, #24, and #30 close behind. In fact, if Atlanta loses to the Packers tonight (as expected - they're two TD underdogs), it will be mathematically impossible for ANY team in the division to have a winning record this year.

Therefore, we're already guaranteed that a nine-win team will stay home in the NFC (more likely a 10 or 11 win team), while the NFC South winner not only goes to the playoffs, but HOSTS a game! 

We are NOT the Big 12 - we will NOT change the rules in midstream. However, we would like to recommend a rule change starting next year...

"No team may participate in the playoffs if their record is under .500."

You can't say at .500, as much as you'd like to, because it's possible you won't have six teams out of sixteen over .500. (In fact, it's theoretically possible for the entire league to be 8-8, so under that version of the rule NO ONE goes to the playoffs. But that's not very likely.)

But under .500? Easy. "If a division champion is under .500, then its spot goes to the first wild card team; the second team moves up to the #5 slot, and a third wild card team is entered into the #6 slot."

"Furthermore, if the entire conference is putrid and there are not six teams in a particular conference with .500 records or above, then all empty slots in that conference will be filled with the next available teams from the opposite conference." (That's the way the CFL does it already! That's how British Columbia got into the playoffs instead of 8-10 Toronto!) "Hence, the #7 team in the opposing conference takes the #6 slot in the putrid conference, assuming one open slot."

And, just in case..."If somehow, there are NOT six teams with records of .500 or above available at all," (and it IS theoretically possible: what if there are five teams who go 14-2? There'll be a lot of losses to spread around in the league!), "then ALL empty slots are treated as BYES, and the opposing team gets a walkover into the next round." Wouldn't THAT be a fascinating turn of events! How serious are you about not allowing 7-9 teams into your postseason? 

("Alternatively, if you want to wuss out and take the money and run instead, then on a 3/4 vote of the league owners, the previous paragraph may be waived on a one-year basis IF there are not twelve eligible teams to fill the twelve available spots. Wusses.")

Our pro football tiers and rankings for Week 14...

The biggest change at the top of the rankings is the emergence of the defending champs in Tier A, the Seattle Seahawks. Their threat is real - just ask Arizona and San Francisco!

At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders have worked their way out of the dungeon, and left the Tennessee Titans at the bottom, following their evisceration at the hands of the New Jersey Giants. 

In between, the continuing demise of the 49ers and the Saints mystifies, and the continued bunched success of the AFC North invites a host of "what ifs?" for folks like us to ponder!

FF rank	Team	Div	OvRecord	ConfRc	DvRec
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3	6-3	4-1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3	7-2	2-1
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3	8-1	4-0
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4	6-2	2-1
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4	7-3	4-0
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4	5-4	3-0
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4	6-4	2-2
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3	7-2	2-1
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4	7-2	3-0
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5	4-5	2-3
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5	7-3	3-2
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1	5-4	2-2
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5	6-4	2-2
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6	6-4	3-1
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6	6-3	2-1
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6	5-4	1-3
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6	4-6	3-2
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6	4-6	2-2
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7	4-5	2-2
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6	6-4	1-3
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7	5-5	0-4
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7	5-4	4-0
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1	4-6	2-2
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8	4-5	2-2
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8	4-5	1-3
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9	2-7	1-3
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10	1-8	1-2
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11	2-7	0-4
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11	1-8	1-3
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11	1-8	0-4
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11	1-8	0-3
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11	2-7	1-3