It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...
If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!
In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.
In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.
With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.
Huh....
Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.
Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...
"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers.
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17.
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36!
And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.
So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!).
Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...
Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread. [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.
Showing posts with label Texas A&M. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas A&M. Show all posts
Monday, October 5, 2015
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for the Second Week of September, 2015!
DOWNS - your blogger, who's been a day off all week...not because of Labor Day per se, but because he was waiting for the results of the Ohio St/VaTech game Monday night before moving on into the next week...only to then be a day behind! I'll try to make it up by getting our Prophecies column out later today!
DOWNS - the Texas Longhorn football team, who in its last three games has looked nothing like the Burnt Orange Machine of old. The loss Saturday night was almost as devastating as the humiliation to Arkansas in its bowl game last winter, where the Longhorns had one TD drive of 43 yards (two good plays), and a game-total of 25 net yards - meaning that excluding one drive towards the end of the first half, Texas had negative 18 yards of offense for the game. In fact, over the last three games, the Texas offense has been outscored by the opponents' defenses 21-20!
UPS - Temple, who beat Penn St 27-10; Northwestern, who beat Stanford 16-6, and Illinois, who overcame its coaching mess to beat Kent St 52-3. All three have far brighter prospects today than they did a week ago!
UPS - the Canadian rivalries between Calgary/Edmonton, Saskatchewan/Winnipeg, and Toronto/Hamilton. CFL scheduling is a hoot! All three pairs of rivals play home-and-home series over last weekend and this one, building a chance for animosity, bragging rights, fights, and twice as many reasons as usual to hate the other team! Going into this second weekend, let's see if Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Toronto can manage to even the scales at home!
UPS AND DOWNS - it's too early for any adjustments in our Top Eights or Bottom Fives, but here's a sneak peek at the college teams we pushed towards the "first among equals" status on one end, and the "isn't there a tier lower than this?" on the other...
POWER FIVE CONFERENCES: Alabama, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all looked remarkable this weekend! Meanwhile, Washington St and Colorado lost to middling-to-poor lower level teams (Portland St and Hawai'i, respectively) and don't appear to have improved as much as we'd hoped...i.e., at all.
GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES: While Boise St would probably still be sitting atop this group for now, their second half was not impressive, even given the Pac-12 opponent. More impressive were the wins by Western Kentucky (against a vastly improved Vanderbilt), Appalachian St, Temple and Houston of the AAC, and we'll count BYU in this group for now on the strength of its Hail Mary victory at Nebraska. (Speaking of which, don't skip the last UP today!) Downs to the usual candidates: Idaho, Georgia St (lost to newbie Charlotte 23-20), Kent St and Tulane.
FCS CHAMPIONSHIP CONFERENCES: Southern Utah absolutely should have a win over Utah St under its belt today - they dominated the Aggies on defense (13 USU punts!) and were it not for USU's special teams (a blocked XP converted on the other end, and a 4th quarter punt return), Southern wins easily. Credit to the Missouri Valley Conference and Big Sky schools, of course, winning in FBS stadia - South Dakota St, Portland St, and North Dakota. Jacksonville's victory over Chattanooga spoke highly of the OVC. On the down side, the Colonial Athletic Association went 2-9, and it would've been ten losses had Stony Brook's game with Toledo not been cancelled before halftime with Toledo already up 16-7.
HBC CONFERENCES: Alas, off to a bad start at 6-17 across the board, and the six wins included four against lower division opponents and two against each other (Prairie View def Texas Southern; Ark-Pine Bluff lost to South Carolina State).
And finally, UPS to the Mangum family of Eagle, Idaho, who were in Pocatello watching one son make the catch of the day (according to ESPN, who made it Top Ten Play #2) for Idaho State, and were alerted that their other son was in at QB for BYU after the starter was injured, and saw him throw a Hail Mary to the end zone which gave the Cougars the 33-28 win in Nebraska - and was ESPN's Top Ten Play #1 for the day! "What are the odds?" said Dad, "We're just going to enjoy it for now!" This weekend, one parent's headed back to Pocatello and the other to Provo, so they can watch both sons play!
DOWNS - the Texas Longhorn football team, who in its last three games has looked nothing like the Burnt Orange Machine of old. The loss Saturday night was almost as devastating as the humiliation to Arkansas in its bowl game last winter, where the Longhorns had one TD drive of 43 yards (two good plays), and a game-total of 25 net yards - meaning that excluding one drive towards the end of the first half, Texas had negative 18 yards of offense for the game. In fact, over the last three games, the Texas offense has been outscored by the opponents' defenses 21-20!
UPS - Temple, who beat Penn St 27-10; Northwestern, who beat Stanford 16-6, and Illinois, who overcame its coaching mess to beat Kent St 52-3. All three have far brighter prospects today than they did a week ago!
UPS - the Canadian rivalries between Calgary/Edmonton, Saskatchewan/Winnipeg, and Toronto/Hamilton. CFL scheduling is a hoot! All three pairs of rivals play home-and-home series over last weekend and this one, building a chance for animosity, bragging rights, fights, and twice as many reasons as usual to hate the other team! Going into this second weekend, let's see if Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Toronto can manage to even the scales at home!
UPS AND DOWNS - it's too early for any adjustments in our Top Eights or Bottom Fives, but here's a sneak peek at the college teams we pushed towards the "first among equals" status on one end, and the "isn't there a tier lower than this?" on the other...
POWER FIVE CONFERENCES: Alabama, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all looked remarkable this weekend! Meanwhile, Washington St and Colorado lost to middling-to-poor lower level teams (Portland St and Hawai'i, respectively) and don't appear to have improved as much as we'd hoped...i.e., at all.
GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES: While Boise St would probably still be sitting atop this group for now, their second half was not impressive, even given the Pac-12 opponent. More impressive were the wins by Western Kentucky (against a vastly improved Vanderbilt), Appalachian St, Temple and Houston of the AAC, and we'll count BYU in this group for now on the strength of its Hail Mary victory at Nebraska. (Speaking of which, don't skip the last UP today!) Downs to the usual candidates: Idaho, Georgia St (lost to newbie Charlotte 23-20), Kent St and Tulane.
FCS CHAMPIONSHIP CONFERENCES: Southern Utah absolutely should have a win over Utah St under its belt today - they dominated the Aggies on defense (13 USU punts!) and were it not for USU's special teams (a blocked XP converted on the other end, and a 4th quarter punt return), Southern wins easily. Credit to the Missouri Valley Conference and Big Sky schools, of course, winning in FBS stadia - South Dakota St, Portland St, and North Dakota. Jacksonville's victory over Chattanooga spoke highly of the OVC. On the down side, the Colonial Athletic Association went 2-9, and it would've been ten losses had Stony Brook's game with Toledo not been cancelled before halftime with Toledo already up 16-7.
HBC CONFERENCES: Alas, off to a bad start at 6-17 across the board, and the six wins included four against lower division opponents and two against each other (Prairie View def Texas Southern; Ark-Pine Bluff lost to South Carolina State).
And finally, UPS to the Mangum family of Eagle, Idaho, who were in Pocatello watching one son make the catch of the day (according to ESPN, who made it Top Ten Play #2) for Idaho State, and were alerted that their other son was in at QB for BYU after the starter was injured, and saw him throw a Hail Mary to the end zone which gave the Cougars the 33-28 win in Nebraska - and was ESPN's Top Ten Play #1 for the day! "What are the odds?" said Dad, "We're just going to enjoy it for now!" This weekend, one parent's headed back to Pocatello and the other to Provo, so they can watch both sons play!
Sunday, September 6, 2015
Weekend Wesults fur ze furst veek oon September, ya!
Hey, what an exciting weekend (so far)! What looked like a boring week in Australia ended up with a handful of routs and a handful of upsets - and telling them apart in advance was impossible! Sure, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast and Richmond followed the script and routed their opponents by a combined 230 points...but Port Adelaide ended up playing the Peel Thunder feeder team, rather than the parent club Fremantle, and won by well over ten goals; Brisbane and Essendon surprised and pulled off narrow upsets in close games; GWS apparently took the last week off once they were out of the playoff race and Melbourne walked all over them; and most dramatically, Geelong found their championship pride to end the run of nine straight years in the finals and three titles, sending three of their retirees off with pride in a fourth quarter rout of finals-bound Adelaide.
In the CFL, BC upset Montreal 25-20 Friday; the other games are still coming up here on Labor Day weekend.
Now, here's the opening weekend of Division I college football! In descending order of interest...
*BYU won at Nebraska (in front of a full house, as with every Nebraska game since 1962!) on a Hail Mary from a backup QB on the last play!
*Alabama looked dominant again, discovering Jake Coker as QB and whomping Wisconsin, 35-17.
*Northwestern shut down ranked Stanford 16-6, much to everybody's surprise.
*Texas A&M looked remarkable in defeating ranked Arizona State 38-17. (Our pastor's happy!)
*Notre Dame looks even better, annihilating Texas 38-3 (it wasn't that close).
*Utah did what they were supposed to, defeating Michigan in Harbaugh's debut, and giving the Pac-12 a good win.
*But elsewhere in the state, Utah State looked terrible against FCS Southern Utah, winning 12-9, but only when Andrew Rodriguez bailed them out on punt number 25 for the day by running it back 88 yards after a day of no offense and five points. (Wyoming, Army, Washington St, Kansas, and Vanderbilt weren't so lucky, losing to FCS opponents in their openers - admittedly, the last two were 'supposed' to lose. Wyoming's loss, to middling FCS North Dakota 24-13, was the worst of the lot)
*Two match-ups of bottom feeders had interesting results: First-timers Kennesaw St started their existence as a football school with a 56-16 defeat of fellow novices East Tennessee St. But the devastating loss was by Georgia State, #128 out of 128 on the FOLLOWING FOOTBALL rankings in 2014, who thought they had easy pickings against FBS novice Charlotte... who were 23-20 victors in the Georgia Dome. Panthers fans were absolutely besides themselves on social media, excoriating their football team's lack of improvement over their four years in FBS.
Other scores of interest in the FF universe:
Auburn over Louisville, 31-24...South beat North, 17-13, in the battle of the Carolinas...Indiana held off Southern Illinois 48-47: lower Big Ten versus upper Missouri Valley? That score's about right...TCU edged Minnesota 23-17 (we had the Gophers winning, but they came close)... Oklahoma struggled but won over Central Michigan, 24-13...Boise St scored 16 in the first half, Washington scored 13 in the second half and missed a last minute FG to lose by three...Temple "upset" Penn St (we bet Temple on our sheet!) 27-10...Arizona struggled with UTSA, just like last year, but won 42-32...Hawai'i over Colorado 28-20...Arkansas St and Georgia Southern both laid eggs against Power Five opponents, while Appalachian St won 49-0 against FCS Howard...After their big win against NDSU on national TV last week, Montana gave up a last second FG of their own last night to Cal Poly SLO, losing 20-19...Toledo/Stony Brook and LSU/McNeese St were both stormed out; Georgia cut its victory over UL-Monroe short because of the weather...Mostly disappointing day for the Colonial AA, going 2-9 for the weekend. William&Mary and James Madison deserved to celebrate their victories, and Towson can cheer a "good loss" to powerful East Carolina by just eight...Coastal Carolina, who announced they'll be moving to FBS next year in the Sun Belt, didn't show much muscle in beating Furman 38-35 (they were favored by 23 in Sagarin). But the Sun Belt doesn't require much muscle, either...Jacksonville State may be the class of the Ohio Valley, defeating highly-regarded Chattanooga 23-20...Not a lot to cheer about in the HBC ranks, though, with results like Grambling State's 73-14 loss at Cal-Berkeley on the board. Even our favorite team, Savannah State, failed to make headlines despite their near-complete incompetence in losing to Colorado State 65-13; Davidson managed to "downstage" them with a zero-to-69 drubbing from fellow FCS Citadel.
In the CFL, BC upset Montreal 25-20 Friday; the other games are still coming up here on Labor Day weekend.
Now, here's the opening weekend of Division I college football! In descending order of interest...
*BYU won at Nebraska (in front of a full house, as with every Nebraska game since 1962!) on a Hail Mary from a backup QB on the last play!
*Alabama looked dominant again, discovering Jake Coker as QB and whomping Wisconsin, 35-17.
*Northwestern shut down ranked Stanford 16-6, much to everybody's surprise.
*Texas A&M looked remarkable in defeating ranked Arizona State 38-17. (Our pastor's happy!)
*Notre Dame looks even better, annihilating Texas 38-3 (it wasn't that close).
*Utah did what they were supposed to, defeating Michigan in Harbaugh's debut, and giving the Pac-12 a good win.
*But elsewhere in the state, Utah State looked terrible against FCS Southern Utah, winning 12-9, but only when Andrew Rodriguez bailed them out on punt number 25 for the day by running it back 88 yards after a day of no offense and five points. (Wyoming, Army, Washington St, Kansas, and Vanderbilt weren't so lucky, losing to FCS opponents in their openers - admittedly, the last two were 'supposed' to lose. Wyoming's loss, to middling FCS North Dakota 24-13, was the worst of the lot)
*Two match-ups of bottom feeders had interesting results: First-timers Kennesaw St started their existence as a football school with a 56-16 defeat of fellow novices East Tennessee St. But the devastating loss was by Georgia State, #128 out of 128 on the FOLLOWING FOOTBALL rankings in 2014, who thought they had easy pickings against FBS novice Charlotte... who were 23-20 victors in the Georgia Dome. Panthers fans were absolutely besides themselves on social media, excoriating their football team's lack of improvement over their four years in FBS.
Other scores of interest in the FF universe:
Auburn over Louisville, 31-24...South beat North, 17-13, in the battle of the Carolinas...Indiana held off Southern Illinois 48-47: lower Big Ten versus upper Missouri Valley? That score's about right...TCU edged Minnesota 23-17 (we had the Gophers winning, but they came close)... Oklahoma struggled but won over Central Michigan, 24-13...Boise St scored 16 in the first half, Washington scored 13 in the second half and missed a last minute FG to lose by three...Temple "upset" Penn St (we bet Temple on our sheet!) 27-10...Arizona struggled with UTSA, just like last year, but won 42-32...Hawai'i over Colorado 28-20...Arkansas St and Georgia Southern both laid eggs against Power Five opponents, while Appalachian St won 49-0 against FCS Howard...After their big win against NDSU on national TV last week, Montana gave up a last second FG of their own last night to Cal Poly SLO, losing 20-19...Toledo/Stony Brook and LSU/McNeese St were both stormed out; Georgia cut its victory over UL-Monroe short because of the weather...Mostly disappointing day for the Colonial AA, going 2-9 for the weekend. William&Mary and James Madison deserved to celebrate their victories, and Towson can cheer a "good loss" to powerful East Carolina by just eight...Coastal Carolina, who announced they'll be moving to FBS next year in the Sun Belt, didn't show much muscle in beating Furman 38-35 (they were favored by 23 in Sagarin). But the Sun Belt doesn't require much muscle, either...Jacksonville State may be the class of the Ohio Valley, defeating highly-regarded Chattanooga 23-20...Not a lot to cheer about in the HBC ranks, though, with results like Grambling State's 73-14 loss at Cal-Berkeley on the board. Even our favorite team, Savannah State, failed to make headlines despite their near-complete incompetence in losing to Colorado State 65-13; Davidson managed to "downstage" them with a zero-to-69 drubbing from fellow FCS Citadel.
NEW TIERS POSTED TOMORROW in what is our regular Monday ratings feature. See you then!
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL for the 1st Weekend of September, 2015
It's finally here! The first slate of American football games hits the airwaves tomorrow night, and from here until January we'll have solid football available to us every five-day weekend (and even a few Tuesdays and Wednesdays in November, thanks to the MAC)! We'll keep track of our projections and predictions so you can keep us honest, just like we have for Aussie footy (138-50 so far this season straight up, 110-78 against the spread) and Canadian football (23-19 so far, in a season where the oddsmakers themselves are under .500!). Alas, we're already zero-and-one in college football, having forecast the defending champions to win in Missoula last weekend, when the Grizzlies came from behind in the last seconds to win. While we were personally happy to see UM victorious...it still goes in our loss column. Luckily, we NEVER bet money, and we don't recommend you use our prognostications to bet money, either! Gambling is an addiction for too many people, and if you're one of those for whom it becomes a slippery slope, don't even touch the betting window. These predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Monday, December 8, 2014
All 38 bowl games in one place!
(Sorta...)
Here's Graham Watson's obligatory piece rating the lo-oo-ong list of bowls from most to least interesting to watch. (This one's from Dr. Saturday on Yahoo...I'm sure ESPN and SI.com will have theirs up any moment now.)
On our list, we particularly like the Arkansas/Texas matchup of the old SouthWest Conference rivals in the "Texas Bowl", as well as the Utah/Colorado St matchup in Vegas. Both games have teams right next to each other in our rankings, and are regional rivalries with a great deal of interest. West Virginia/Texas A&M in Memphis' "Liberty Bowl" should be a blast as well. Finally, as a Group of Five proponent, we are partial to the meeting of the C-USA and MAC champions, Marshall/Northern Illinois, in Boca Raton, Florida - two very good teams, no matter what level they're on. (We'll have much more on the bowl games down the road, including our projections for all of them.)
Here's Graham Watson's obligatory piece rating the lo-oo-ong list of bowls from most to least interesting to watch. (This one's from Dr. Saturday on Yahoo...I'm sure ESPN and SI.com will have theirs up any moment now.)
On our list, we particularly like the Arkansas/Texas matchup of the old SouthWest Conference rivals in the "Texas Bowl", as well as the Utah/Colorado St matchup in Vegas. Both games have teams right next to each other in our rankings, and are regional rivalries with a great deal of interest. West Virginia/Texas A&M in Memphis' "Liberty Bowl" should be a blast as well. Finally, as a Group of Five proponent, we are partial to the meeting of the C-USA and MAC champions, Marshall/Northern Illinois, in Boca Raton, Florida - two very good teams, no matter what level they're on. (We'll have much more on the bowl games down the road, including our projections for all of them.)
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
College predictions for Week 13!
Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
What an insane afternoon of football!!!!
Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Ah, it's GOOD to be the king...
As Saturday morning progresses and we get ready for the weekly onslaught of college football (glorious!), we pause to check the morning betting lines - only to find that the public sees the games the way WE do, not as Vegas does!
Seemingly EVERY point spread that's shifted has done so in the direction our Following Football tiers would dictate! Increased spreads for LaTech, Duke, Oregon St, Boise St, and UCLA, for example, match our own predictions; a reversal in the Fresno/San Jose nightcap (the Dogs are now a home favorite) and a reduction inMichigan's gap also testify to our sentiments. The glaring difference, Auburn's predicted margin over A&M, is justified by the QB issues in Aggieville.
Add to that the Memphis/Temple game last night, which we called even rather than a TD spread, hit halftime 10-10, was tied at 13 one second from the death, and was won by a FG for Memphis on the last play...and we feel pretty cocky this morning!
Seemingly EVERY point spread that's shifted has done so in the direction our Following Football tiers would dictate! Increased spreads for LaTech, Duke, Oregon St, Boise St, and UCLA, for example, match our own predictions; a reversal in the Fresno/San Jose nightcap (the Dogs are now a home favorite) and a reduction inMichigan's gap also testify to our sentiments. The glaring difference, Auburn's predicted margin over A&M, is justified by the QB issues in Aggieville.
Add to that the Memphis/Temple game last night, which we called even rather than a TD spread, hit halftime 10-10, was tied at 13 one second from the death, and was won by a FG for Memphis on the last play...and we feel pretty cocky this morning!
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Week 10 is upon us!
Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
Monday, November 3, 2014
Here's another good regular read: Sam Cooper!
Cooper does a commendable job recapping many of the storylines of the weekend past in college football - some of these we've touched on, like the Maryland refusal to shake hands; some of them we haven't, like the tragedy of Connor Halliday's broken leg at Washington State or the yanked field goal of the aptly-named Pitt kicker Chris Blewett, or even the more delightfully named Munchie Legaux at Cincinnati. Take a look yourself, courtesy of Yahoo Sports!
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Uh-oh....
Texas A&M just suffered through three terrible beatings to three extremely good teams, so thankfully they get an easy game this week against UL-Monroe.
Uh-oh.
As we speak, the Aggies are only up five, 21-16, deep in the fourth quarter, and ULM has the ball...
At least it's not East Carolina, whom Temple is currently outscoring 21-3...so much for being the highest ranked Group of Five team (and the automatic major bowl bid...)
Uh-oh.
As we speak, the Aggies are only up five, 21-16, deep in the fourth quarter, and ULM has the ball...
At least it's not East Carolina, whom Temple is currently outscoring 21-3...so much for being the highest ranked Group of Five team (and the automatic major bowl bid...)
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Week 8 CFB tiers continued - the Upper Floors!
We've reached the upper half (slightly above, actually) of the FBS tiering: Tiers F through J, teams #31-61 if we were actually "ranking" (which we're not, at least in October!).
Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).
Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).
Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).
Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).
Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.
Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).
Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).
Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).
Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).
Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Our pastor's a Texas A&M fan...
..and we're very concerned for his well-being after the first half against Alabama. After two quarters, Bama has 400 yards more offense, leads in first downs 24-2, and... well, here are the results of each team 's drives in the first half:
Texas A&M: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, end of half.
Alabama: field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.
Hard to remember the Aggies were 5-2, w losses only to a pair of Tier 1 teams on their resume...
Texas A&M: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, end of half.
Alabama: field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.
Hard to remember the Aggies were 5-2, w losses only to a pair of Tier 1 teams on their resume...
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