UPS AND DOWNS - flip flopping the schedule!

We'll go through the Weekend Wesults either later today or tomorrow, but so much else is happening that we really want to get this piece out today... because there are a TON of folks who are UP and even more who are DOWN all of a sudden...

UP - a belated UP-UP-UP to the THREE-PEAT champions of the Australian Football League, the HAWTHORN HAWKS! Coming into a Grand Final against a team that had spanked them by 31 points three weeks ago, coming in with an older roster that had to cross the country four times in three weeks while West Coast sat at home and won a pair of games before travelling to Melbourne to play in the fabled MCG, "the home of footy"...and once there, play like they were in awe of the situation, while the Hawks were in "been there, won that" mode, demolishing the Eagles in a game not unlike last year's demolition of the also high-flying Sydney Swans - a brief, half-period of hope, followed by one-and-a-half quarters of the most devastating footy you'll ever see, leaving the second half to basically be a procession to the throne for Hawthorn, unquestionably the outstanding franchise of the 21st century at this point. What's more, it was no fluke - imagining another team to outplay them next year is difficult, and probably a measure of self-destruction will be necessary for other clubs to fancy themselves as "flag favorites" at any point in 2016.

DOWN-DOWN-DOWN-DOWN to the coaches already jettisoned in the FBS, barely halfway through the season - Randy Edsell at Maryland, for whom the bell tolled last year but who survived to coach another season, only to start out 2-4 with routs from West Virginia, Ohio St and Michigan on his record. The three-TD loss to Bowling Green of the MAC was the worst of the lot, but as always, there's more to the story...With Steve Sarkisian of USC, the struggle is straightforward: alcohol abuse, combined with life stresses, pushed him well over the edge of professional behavior after a drunken appearance at a major booster event, another reported one at the Arizona St game, and the worst this Sunday when he arrived for practice completely plowed. He was immediately put on leave, and today was relieved of his duties by AD Pat Haden. His situation is different than Edsell's, especially if you believe that alcoholism is a disease, rather than purely a choice on a person's part. While the university personnel are saying all the right things - we support him in his quest to get healthy - and well they should, as we all should, it's hard for me not to look at these circumstances for a professional and say, Isn't there a line you realize you shouldn't cross long before you reach this point? Of course, he's not the first coach for whom addictions played a role in losing his "dream job" - some for their own abuses, some for abetting those of players; some for alcohol, some for drugs, some for violence, and some for sex. But somehow, somehow, there's got to be more than just sympathy for a coach who has the self-discipline to succeed in a profession that demands self-discipline more than almost any other, and yet can't find the self-discipline to curb his own addiction issues, or get help for them before they destroy him. There's got to be something more akin to responsibility for his actions, beyond the firing. Sarkisian's issues have destroyed his life - but probably only temporarily. He'll get another coaching job, and like Jim Tressel, Kelvin Sampson, and other previous disgracees, he'll resume his career. But the players, university personnel, boosters, and fans of USC football won't forget...Just added in the last few hours, two more coaches with reason to feel down - North Texas (former) head coach Dan McCarney, who was handed his pink slip today after UNT (already the creators of tier "V" in the FBS division this year for their ineptitude) not only lost as we predicted to FBS Big Sky Portland State (at home, on Homecoming of all days), but lost by the Baylor-esque score of 66-7 (actually, that's exactly the score Baylor had against Kansas Saturday. But that was BAYLOR, not a tier O, 3-2 FCS team!). It was the largest loss by an FBS (or "1-A") school to an FCS (or "1-AA") school in history. So, let's see, at least North Texas gets a break now to work a new coach in...what? They play Western Kentucky? The conference favorite? On THURSDAY? Great timing, UNT....AND last because the headliner always goes last, the Head Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier, retired from coaching today as South Carolina sits at 0-4 in the SEC East, 57th ranked in the country, tier J on the Following Football charts, and idiots calling for the head of the master when they aren't worthy to carry his jock strap. I feel on this one like I do on Adam Goodes being humiliated by Australian "fans" - yes, he should retire at the end of the year, and yes, if he had been an ass about it you could argue for removal then. But he single handedly made the SEC the most relevant conference in the country - he deserves a better send-off than this. I'm no Spurrier fan, but he had more football knowledge in his ball cap than I've had my entire existence.

(And by the way, one further DOWN to those idiots in Australia I just mentioned, for preventing Goodes from participating in ANY of the retired star activities that his fellow (and all lesser) stars got to do this fall (spring there) because he didn't want any booing to distract from the celebration for the others. A hero to the last, Mr. Goodes. You deserved so much better than this.)

DOWN also to poor Joe Philbin, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, who was never going to keep his job there after the issues that took place under his watch, which from our standpoint didn't seem to be his fault. But you've got to have a fall guy, and we'll guarantee 1-3 one fourth of the way through an NFL season is hardly reason to fire your coach - especially when you weren't figuring to set the world on fire to begin with. But as so often happens, when the boss wants to make a change, and the GM has the wrong players on the roster, the only one you can get rid of quickly is the coach. Good luck, Miami - here's betting the next twelve games are no better.

All Ten D1 Conferences Forecast for 2015!

Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:

SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)

PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)

BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)

BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)

ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)

Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6). 

American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)

Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)

Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)

Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)

Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)

So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.

So...how many teams do we want in Los Angeles?

One? Two? Three?

None?

For some reason, after twenty barren years in the second-largest metropolis in the country, there's suddenly a rush to fill a void that most of us don't even notice. 

It's not as if the NFL hasn't flourished in the last twenty years, or that any of its current problems are affected or would be solved by having at least one team return to L.A.

But suddenly, the San Diego Chargers AND the Oakland Raiders are threatening to bolt their current stadia (that's the plural of 'stadium', erudite readers), and the St. Louis Rams are talking about doing the same thing and returning to its original stomping grounds. Admittedly, all three stadia (go out and use the word twice today - that's your homework assignment) are in poor shape, although the Edward Jones Dome and Qualcomm Stadium are the Taj Mahal in comparison to the dump that the Raiders and Athletics share in Oakland. 

There's a huge issue if the Chargers and Raiders follow through with the shared stadium deal they're discussing, but it's hard to see this being the deal-breaker if money talks loudly enough.

Our question is - WHY? Every one of these teams has been in their current homes for a minimum of twenty years; the Chargers for almost fifty. Los Angeles is NOT hurting for things to do on a Sunday afternoon: that's why the Raiders and Rams left in the FIRST place! Between living in the sun and surf capital of the nation, Hollywood, and everything else SoCal has going for it, who has time to watch football? The USC and UCLA football teams can testify to this (so can their basketball teams, for that matter) - when they're not good/borderline great, they're nothing in that town. Do you really think the current Rams or Raiders would succeed financially there? Really?

Stick with stability. Fix the stadium issues where you are (WITH PRIVATE MONEY!), and stay put - your loyal fans there will thank you tenfold.

From John Ireland: an explanation of college football.

John Ireland@LAIreland

USC is doing to Notre Dame what UCLA did to USC, which is what Stanford did to UCLA. And USC beat Stanford. College FB never makes sense 

1h

Random items from Week 12

“There’s Jesus, there’s girls, and there’s Marcus Mariota.” —12-year-old Charlie Pape, following the Ducks’ 44-10 win over Colorado, explaining to Oregon coach Mark Helfrich where Mariota’s future stands in the conversational hierarchy of students at O’Hara Catholic. (Thanks to Matt Hinton at Grantland for the quote!)

WISH I COULD TELL YOU WHERE THESE TWO QUOTES CAME FROM...just know that they're not ours, alas!...

"I call him "the Geno Atkins diet" because once he gets a little bit of bread, he's worthless."
- about NY Jets QB Geno Smith...
"RG3-8 is about to end his career as a sub, instead of just being a spokesman for one."
- about Robert Griffin III in D.C....

And we agree wholeheartedly with Holly Anderson - we LOVE the home v. home jersey tradition that UCLA and USC started last year! Last year, at the Colosseum, UCLA insisted on wearing its home blues, despite being the road team. They were assessed a time out penalty for the infraction; USC then called a time out before its very first play to "level the playing field", if you'll pardon the expression. If the NCAA didn't wisen up this year, I'm sure USC and UCLA played the same infraction game this year, with the roles reversed, and we're sure glad they did: this is such a cool tradition! Remember, for decades, the two schools shared the Colosseum, so they really were both home teams. With UCLA playing in the Rose Bowl these days, it's great to see nostalgia reign!



PS - d'you know how big Los Angeles is? USC and UCLA are both in LA, twelve miles apart...which means they're farther apart than North Carolina and Duke, who played Thursday night - their campuses are only separated by eight miles.

We're in love with Holly Anderson...

Here's Holly's guide to the upcoming week watching college football, including the in-stadium pillow fight in South Dakota, the rivalry games on tap, and a woman riding an alligator!

Our Week 11 experimental predictions! AND RESULTS!

   Alright, we’ve put together what our tier system suggests the difference between two teams playing games this week should be. Now, we’re going to compare those to what the professionals in Las Vegas are posting as betting spreads. Remember, this is an exercise for amusement purposes only! Our numbers are NOT exact by any means, and the betting lines are as much a prediction of public perception as they are actual predictions about the games to come.

   There are seventeen games in which the line differs from our numbers enough to overcome the margin of variation in our work; they’re marked in red like this. Let’s track those this week and see how we do - if the game lands on OUR side of the casino line, we'll count it a win! And in updating this post, we'll be adding in scores in purple, like this, so we can all keep track of how it went! (EDIT: Technical problems prevented upload of the updates of this blog entry Saturday.)

Akron @ Buffalo (Tues 6 pm MST) - MAC

            Tiers R @ R means Buffalo by 3. Vegas picks Akron by 3. Score: Buffalo 55-24! FF 1, Vegas 0!

Toledo @ Northern Illinois (Tues 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers L @ I means NIU by 7. Score: NIU 27-24. No Vegas line, but we hit that one pretty close! 

Ball St @ U Mass (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers R @ T means an EVEN game. Vegas picks Massachusetts by 3. UMass won by two touchdowns (24-10, but they had mirror image drives for the first 20 minutes or so! It looked so promising for us!), so point, Vegas. FF 1, Vegas 1.

Kent St @ Bowling Green (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers U @ K- means BGSU by 17. Vegas says BGSU by 13. Bowling Green 30-20.

East Carolina @ Cincinnati (Thur 5 pm) - AAC

            Tiers F @ I means ECU by 2. Vegas says by 1.  ECU won 54-46.

Southern Miss @ UTSA (Thur 6 pm) - CUSA

            Tiers R- @ S means UTSA by 2. Vegas picks them by 9. UTSA won 12-10...by TWO! We lead, 2-1! (Extra credit for nailing the spread exactly?)

Cal-Berkeley @ Southern Cal (Thur 7 pm) - PAC

            Tiers G @ C- means USC by 8. Vegas picks them by 14 ½. This could be a fascinating game! Depending on conditions and the way they choose to play it, the score might be 20-17…or 120-117! USC ends up winning by exactly 8! Cal made it close after a 31-2 first 27 minutes to make us look brilliant, and now it's FF 3, plus two Bingos, Vegas 1!

Tulsa @ Central Florida (Fri 6 pm) - AAC

            Tiers T @ L means UCF by 15. Vegas says it’s by 18. And UCF said it would be 24, winning 31-7.

Iowa @ Illinois (Sat 10 am MST) – Big 10

            Tiers H @ N means Iowa by 6. Vegas says 5 ½. Iowa win 30-14.

South Carolina @ Florida (Sat 10 am) – SEC

            Tiers G @ F- means Florida by 4. Vegas says FLA by 6. Which USC shows up? Can Florida win without that modern invention of “throwing the ball”? Stay tuned!  And thanks to a  blocked FG under 4 min to go, a blocked punt under a minute, and a "dribble-touchdown" by the Gamecocks with 12 seconds to go, USC got into overtime and won there, 23-20. Head Ball Coach Magic!

Army @ Western Kentucky (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers R @ S means WKU by 1. Vegas says the spread is 10 ½! We lost this one: WKU won 52-24, so now it's FF 3, Vegas 2.

Ohio St @ Minnesota (Sat 10 am) – Big 10

            Tiers B+ @ E means OSU by 3. Vegas favors them by 12. The pieces are all there: OSU just had a huge prime time win over the Spartans, and they could very well overlook the Gophers the way they overlooked the Hokies! Even though the chart says Buckeyes, we’re thinking Gophers! With the Gophers fighting back to within 7 (OSU won 31-24), we have to call this a draw. However...why did Jerry Kill kick the FG so early, with 1:23 to go, on second down? Why not try for the TD when you're inside the 20?

Temple @ Penn St (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers K @ H means Penn St by 7. Vegas picks them by 9. That is, assuming either teams scores seven points… PSU did: Nittany Lions won 30-13.

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers E @ D means GT by 5. Vegas says it'll be Clemson by 3! The Ramblin’ Wreck is on a ramblin’ roll and could very well steamroll the Tigers at home; we’re kinda partial to GT anyway, but our hunch is to disagree with the “system”… AND they rolled, all right: Georgia Tech 28, Clemson 6. Back-up Clemson QB Cole Standt completed six of his 11 passes: three to Clemson players, three to Yellowjackets! (His one TD went the wrong way, too.) FF 4, Vegas 2!

Virginia Tech @ Duke (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers D+ @ K means Duke by 8. Vegas says 7. We were both wrong. Va-Tech upsets the Blue Devils (strange sentence to write!), 17-16. So much for Duke's faint playoff hopes...

Pitt @ North Carolina (Sat 10:30 am) – ACC

            Tiers J @ J means UNC by 3. Vegas says 2. Carolina won a great back-n-forth game by five, 40-35.

Miami-OH @ Central Michigan (Sat 11 am) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means CMU by 14. Vegas lists the spread as 15. CMU by 7, 34-27.

Nevada @ Air Force (Sat noon) – MW

            Tiers J @ H means AFA by 6. Vegas says it's more like 2 1/2. It took overtime for Air Force to win by 7...and we always think that should count as a "win by zero", personally.

Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (Sat noon) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means WMU by 14. Vegas favors Western by 25 ½. And we both underestimated: 51-7. So, point Vegas...FF 4, Vegas 3.

Rice @ Marshall (Sat 12:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers M @ E means Marshall by 15. The pro spread is 20. Final score 41-14, Thundering Herd. (They almost ended the night as the ONLY unbeaten...)

Wake Forest @ North Carolina St (Sat 1 pm) – ACC

            Tiers Q @ J means NCSU by 14. Vegas agrees (well, 13 ½). Wolfpack 42-13.

Texas Christian @ Kansas (Sat 1 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers A @ Q means TCU by 21. Vegas goes up to 27, but we’ll say close enough. In the best "almost-upset" of the year, TCU had to come from behind in the second half and won by four, 34-30. Good on ya, Jayhawks! That was more impressive than your actual win last week! Would it have been appropriate or understandable for the fans to storm the field after a close loss to the #4 team, given Kansas' history?

Appalachian St @ Arkansas St (Sat 1 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers R+ @ M means Ark St by 9. Vegas says it’ll be 14. UPSET, App St! 37-32!

Indiana @ Rutgers (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers P @ I means Rutgers by 13. Vegas argues it’ll only be a 7 point game. And WE WIN this one: 45-23, Scarlet Knights! FF 5, Vegas 3!

Mississippi St @ Alabama (Sat 1:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers A @ A means ‘Bama by 3. Vegas picks the Tide by 7. This is IT! This is the game of the season, in our opinion. Finish your chores, get your snacks and beverages ready, and settle in. The two best teams in the country: Nick Saban and the unbeatable multiple champion Crimson Tide host the upstarts from Mississippi, where nothing ever goes right…except THIS year, this “sold their soul to the devil” year. Our greatest wish is that the game lives up to the billing! A game that lived up to its billing. Would the "fumble" at the goal line the officials originally gave to MSU (correctly, it seemed to us) really have made the TD swing that would have prevented a 25-20 Bulldog loss? Impossible to tell, but Mississippi St won't drop out of Tier A on our ranking because they lost by the expected spread on the home field of another Tier A team! As for the oddsmakers, 5 points splits the difference - call it a draw.

Georgia Southern @ Navy (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers K @ L means Navy by 1. Vegas stretches that to 3 ½. Navy stretches it to 33 (52-19).

Memphis @ Tulane (Sat 1:30 pm) – AAC

            Tiers J @ Q means Memphis by 8. Vegas makes it 10. Memphis made it 31.

Nebraska @ Wisconsin (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers B @ D means an EVEN game. Wisconsin’s a 6 point favorite in Nevada. And brother, were they right! We'll post about Melvin Gordon's day elsewhere today, but 408 rushing yards in three quarters is as eye opening as it gets. We wish they'd left him in there to hit five hundred...the 59-24 annihilation of the Huskers makes it FF 5, Vegas 4.

Northwestern @ Notre Dame (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers N @ B means ND by 21. It’s 16 ½ in Vegas’ eyes. Notre Dame found an impressive way to give the game away yesterday. A first quarter blocked XP run back for two, the decision to make that up too early by Coach Kelly, the 4-to-go TD w/ 2-pt conversion, last second 47 yard FG and game winning 41 yard FG by a kicker who'd never kicked a thirty-yarder before yesterday...Amazing. 43-40, NU.

Middle Tennessee @ Florida International (Sat 1:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers O- @ R means MTSU by 2. Vegas favors them by 4. MTSU 38-28.

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers E @ N means OU by 10. Vegas picks the Sooners by 14. Sooners split the difference, 42-30.

Washington @ Arizona (Sat 1:30 pm) – PAC

            Tiers H- @ C means Arizona by 11. The difference is 8 ½ in Vegas. It was "one" on the field, 27-26, and "won" on the sideline, when our favorite coach, Chris Petersen, tried to ice the kicker but instead cancelled out the game-losing FG by Arizona, who then made the second chance to win it. Heartbreaking for UW - they deserved to win the game.

New Mexico @ Utah St (Sat 2 pm) – MW

            Tiers S+ @ G- means USU by 19. Vegas says 16. The Aggies barely hung on, 28-21.

Kentucky @ Tennessee (Sat 2 pm) – SEC

            Tiers G @ I means an EVEN game. The spread in Vegas is Tennessee by 7 ½! One of a half-dozen pick’em games this weekend in our eyes, some being traditional rivalries like this one. We lean towards UK. We just have too much faith in the Wildcats. Early season form has failed to hold - 50-16, UT. Vegas 5, FF 5.

Hawaii @ San Jose St (Sat 2:30 pm) – MW

            Tiers S @ P- means SJSU by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. Amazingly, the Warriors shut out an opponent on the road, 13-0! Poor Spartans have fallen on hard times, too.

Troy @ Idaho (Sat 3 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers T @ U means Idaho by 1. Vegas says the Vandals by 5. Should've known. Given a home game they should win, the Vandals folded like a bedsheet: awkwardly and crumpled. 34-17, Trojans.

Utah @ Stanford (Sat 4 pm) – PAC

            Tiers D @ H means Utah by 3. Vegas takes Stanford by 7! Utah wins a game that went to OT just 7-7, scoring a TD in the second OT to win 20-17. FF 6, Vegas 5, just barely.

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Louisiana-Monroe (Sat 5 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers L @ P- means Lafayette by 4. Vegas picks them by 7 ½. Lafayette 34-27,

Nevada-Las Vegas @ Brigham Young (Sat 5 pm)

            Tiers S @ L means BYU by 14. Vegas gives the Cougars a 24 point gap! Split the difference: 19 points, 42-23, although UNLV gave them a great battle in the first half. Call it a draw.

Auburn @ Georgia (Sat 5:15 pm) – SEC

            Tiers B @ C means Georgia by 1. Casinos are pitching 2 ½ points. Once again, Georgia demonstrates how overpowering they can be, walloping top-level Auburn 34-7.

Texas St @ South Alabama (Sat 5:30 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers O @ Q means an EVEN game. Vegas chooses Texas St by 4. And South Alabama won, 24-20!  Make it 7-5, FF!

Texas @ Oklahoma St (Sat 5:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers I @ G means an EVEN game. Vegas recommends Texas by 2. Glad this wasn't one we'd "bet" on - the Longhorns looked lethal last night, winning 28-7. Impressive victory for Charlie Strong.

Missouri @ Texas A&M (Sat 5:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers D @ F means an EVEN game. Vegas says A&M by 5 ½. (Really?) Sorry, Pastor, but we were right: although the Aggies led much of the first half, the Tigers had much more to play for: 34-27. Mizzou. FF 8, Vegas 5.

LSU @ Arkansas (Sat 6 pm) – SEC

            Tiers C @ H means LSU by 5. Vegas chooses Arkansas by 2 ½! And they were right. The Razorbacks managed to shut out LSU 17-0. Point, Vegas: 8-6, FF.

Florida St @ Miami-FL (Sat 6 pm)

            Tiers A @ F means FSU by 5. Or take 2 ½, according to Nevada oddsmakers. Hard to see the Hurricanes staying that close, but for Winston to keep up his last-moment savior rep, s’pose that’s the way it’ll have to be! Great game for Al Golden, Duke Johnson, and the Hurricanes, but it seems that was necessary for the "Jamies Magic" to save the day, 30-26. Amazing. No one wants to call them #1, but the defending champs are still undefeated, and would you really want to bet against them if they somehow still have number 5 behind center?

South Florida @ Southern Methodist (Sat 6 pm) – AAC

            Tiers P @ U- means USF by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. ONLY SMU could lose a game like this! More about this game in another post, but after being shut out for 3 1/2 quarters, the Bulls went on a six-minute, game-ending, 21 play drive (you read that right: twenty-one plays!) that included three successful fourth down conversions and ended in a touchdown pass (on fourth down, of course) to win the game, 14-13. Glad the Mustangs showed some life, but HOLY CATFISH! What a way to lose the game!

Michigan St @ Maryland (Sat 6 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers C+ @ F means Michigan St by 2. Vegas chooses the Spartans by 11! And they were half right - Spartans by 22, 37-15. Point Vegas, but it's too late: FOLLOWING FOOTBALL 8, VEGAS 7! Huzzah! Three cheers for a meaningless victory for us!

North Texas @ Texas-El Paso (Sat 8 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers R @ M means UTEP by 10. The line is 6 ½ in Las Vegas.  We were closer, for what it's worth: 35-17, Miners by 18.

San Diego St @ Boise St (Sat 8:15 pm) – MW

            Tiers N @ G- means BSU by 13. It’s 14 in Vegas. SDSU is a tough out for the Broncos, and it showed again last night: it took four quarters for Boise to pull out a 37-29 victory.

Arizona St @ Oregon St (Sat 8:45 pm) – PAC

            Tiers B @ J means ASU by 7. The line is 9 in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 has to rest its hopes on the Ducks now, as the Sun Devils fell after midnight last night, 35-27, to a very good OSU team that's completely capable of ruining Oregon's season in the Civil War in two weeks, too!

So, if you're keeping track, of the fifteen games that our predictions differed significantly enough from Vegas that we'd have been interested in wagering on the games, we were on the winning side of the margin 8 out of 15 times, with three draws. (If we'd have bet those, we'd have won, but our game here was who was closer with their prediction, not were we on the winning side.) Going back through all fifty games, if we'd simply bet a dollar on the spread of every one of those fifty games given how our tier-tracker predicted, we'd have won four bucks - we went 27 and 23. Again, do NOT use our forecasts for gambling purposes. But it's fun to track, and it gives us a better idea when we're watching a true upset in the making! Thanks for playing along!

Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...

Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!). 

Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...

Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).

Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.

Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.

Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.

Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.

Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. 

We've reached the Week 8 CFB tiers Penthouse!

That's right, the thirty best teams as decided on the field so far this year, divided into the top five tiers (and no closer, as berated before!), for your amusement!

Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]

Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!

Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12). 

Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).

As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!

Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though! 

[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]

Interesting games this weekend...

Here are the college games that will keep us attentive this weekend...

In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!

Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...

Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!

Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...

Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.

We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.

Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...

What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?

How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?

Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)

Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....

The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!

South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).

The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!

Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).

Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.

Dead coach walking...

Under the category of "they take football WAY too seriously down south", Lane Kiffin returns to Tennessee for the first time since his admittedly rude and abrupt departure from Knoxville for subsequent failures at USC...and people who care for him are understandably fearful for his safety while he's there. His children won't be going at all; his mother is pleading for him to be in the upstairs booth rather than his normal position on the Alabama sideline, and arguably half of the folks in orange will be at the game primarily for (or more accurately, against) his return, rather than to root for their seventeen point underdog Volunteers. (Thanks to Graham Watson for the story!)

College Tiers after Week 6! (Part A)

Another truly exciting weekend of college football, culminating in the fourth straight victory for the state of Mississippi over a top-notch SEC team! The two Egg Bowl participants are a combined 12-0, and sit in the drivers' seats in the hardest division in football, the SEC West!

Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.

Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.

The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...

Arizona "Rodney Dangerfield" Wildcats!

Tonight, tenth-ranked Arizona's hosting unranked Southern Cal. Despite what you'd think, it's the Trojans who are the two-point favorites. How many times has a Top Ten team been an underdog to an unranked opponent? Well, in the last twenty years, it's happened six other times...but always when they were on the road. Arizona's the first top ten team to be SO disrespected that Vegas doesn't even like them at home. Bear Down, Wildcats... you're only down 14-6 at the half!