Weekend Wesults (a day late - switched with UAD this week!)

Thanks for your patience with us flip-flopping these articles this week - with all the coaching changes (and more coming! Amazing!), we wanted to get our two cents - or rather, our two senses - in as quickly as we could! Besides, both the NFL and CFL had thrilling Monday night games to wait for the conclusion of... Anyway - on to our results!

So, our Canadian Football League predictions: Toronto over Ottawa (28-23) from last Tuesday; Hamilton over Saskatchewan (34-20)…Calgary holds off Edmonton (holding our breath on this one – 30-27)…BC to defeat Winnipeg (in Vancouver, not a stretch: 20-14)…and Montreal catches Toronto on six days rest (28-27, despite the Argos being favored otherwise). OOPS!

Results? 2-3 straight up (got the first two right), 4-1 against the spread (missed the last one). OVERALL, 37-28 straight up, 37-26-3 ATS.

Next, our National Football League predictions: Houston (+0.5) upsets Indianapolis Thursday night…on Sunday, Atlanta (-8) covers against Washington…Cincinnati (-3) covers against Seattle…Green Bay (-9.5) covers against the Rams…Philadelphia (-4.5) covers against New Orleans…and Buffalo (-2.5) covers at Tennessee. On the flip side of that coin, Cleveland (+6.5) beats the spread against the Ravens…Chicago (+9.5) stays close to the Chiefs…and Jacksonville (+2.5) at least covers against Tampa. In the late games Sunday, Arizona (-3), New England (-9.5), Denver (-5.5), and the Giants (-7) all win by more than those spreads against Detroit, Dallas, Oakland, and San Francisco, respectively. Finally, on Monday night, Pittsburgh (+3) upsets San Diego.

Results? Nailed 8 out of 14 completely (Green Bay, Philly, Cleveland, Chicago, Arizona, New England, Denver, and Pittsburgh, thanks to the wildcat Deveon Bell!); also picked winners Atlanta, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Giants; only missed two games completely – Houston lost to Indy, and Tampa covered against Jacksonville. So, 8-6 against the spread, 12-2 winners. OVERALL, we’re 52-24; against the spread we’re 49-27.

With our college picks, there are so MANY that it’s too time consuming to list all the wins and losses we went through, but let’s give you the overall breakdown…

There was a large group of games where we felt that the favorite would not only win but cover the Vegas spread… Of those 38 games, we went 19-19 regarding that particular call against the spread, and seven of those 38 actually lost their games (so we were 31-7 with those straight up).

Then, we had a list of 17 games where we thought the underdog would at least beat the spread and (in some cases) win outright:

Within that group, we correctly called four upsets (out of five predictions – VERY nice!) – Wisconsin over Nebraska, U Conn over UCF, Rice over Florida Atlantic, and San Diego St over Hawaii. Overall in this group, we nailed 16 out of 17 winners (16-1!) and went 9-8 against the spread.

Finally, we predicted margins of victory for all 54 FCS games last weekend, and nailed a couple right on the number: Bethune-Cookman Thursday night over SC State, 17-14, and Western Carolina over Mercer by three as well.  Overall, we got 38 winners (don’t know how pleased we are with a 38-16 record on this…), and there were 20 of those games in which we got within ten points of the actual score, which actually is pretty good! Some of the games, though, really caught us by surprise – Rhode Island shutting someone out? (20-0 over Delaware!) UC Davis winning and Montana losing? Maine and Richmond beating Albany and Elon surprised us, Central Connecticut beating ANYONE surprised us (35-33 over Bryant), and the Big South (where we PROMISED no upsets!) saw lowly Gardner-Webb upset a Liberty team we had picked by 19!

So, on the whole, our college football predictions looked like this for Week 5: Straight up, we went 85-24 all across the board this weekend (47-8 in the FBS alone), and against the Vegas spread, which is just for FBS games, we went a pedestrian 28-27. For the season, we are 448-117 overall and 240-215 ATS, with 2 pushes. That’s down to 79% straight up and still at 53% against the spread. Not as impressive as the rest of our body of work this year!

As for our competition success, in our NFL “Pigskin Pick’em”, we are in the top 10% out of 500,000 entries in the straight up competition, and in the top 1% (in fact, the top thousand entries) in the competition against the spread!

For the college pick’em game, as you might expect from our struggles above, we’re not nearly as high, although we ARE in the top third of the 250,000 entries at 68+%! So, room to improve!

(And don’t forget that we ended the AFL season in the top 1% for finals and 5% for the season!)

Finally, for the Canadian Football League “Pick’em” prediction contest, we’re still in the top fifth, continuing to sit right around #2000-#2500 out of 14,000 (somewhere between 80-85%, depending on how we do that week)!

So, we may not be perfect, but we’re WAY better than average on all fronts!

More on Chris Borland - and the surprising lack of shock in his early retirement

The most poignant thing in this article, a follow-up to the piece we linked this morning noting the retirement of 49ers linebacker Chris Borland at the tender age of twenty-four, after just one season, is the last section, from former Jets star Wesley Walker. Truthfully, his words bring tears:

Wesley Walker, 59, who played 13 years with the Jets, said he's had surgeries on his neck, back, shoulders, knees and Achilles that he attributed to his football career. He said that he suffers from spinal stenosis and nerve damage, that he feels pain in his arms and fingers, and that he's had 14 screws and a plate inserted into his neck and 10 screws and two rods inserted into his back.

"I admire [Borland] for what he did. I admire him for being man enough and smart enough to know what's more important in life," Walker told ESPN.com's Ian O'Connor. "If I had to do it over again, and I knew I'd end up in the amount of pain I'm always in, there's no way in hell I'd play football again. With all of my injuries, including my neck, I took a chance of breaking my neck and ending up in a wheelchair. I look back and ask, 'What was I thinking?' "

"Every individual has to make his own decision, and there's so much money to be made these days. But is money more important, or is your life more important? I could never see myself hurting myself, but there have been times when I've thought, 'God, I wish you'd just end this right now.' I don't sleep, I'm in constant pain, I haven't felt my feet in 20 years. I feel like there are times when my whole body shuts down. Sometimes I feel like I'm 90 years old.

"[Commissioner] Roger Goodell is a good friend of mine. But I want the NFL to tell truth about what's happening with players, and I think they sugarcoat everything."

The thought of retirement came many months ago for Borland, who played through concussion during training camp and realized that was facing him the rest of his career if he wanted to be good at his choice of vocation. 

Borland told "Outside The Lines" that he had been thinking about leaving football as the 2014 season went along, and wrote a letter to his parents late in the year. After the season, he consulted with prominent concussion researchers and former players to affirm his decision.

"I've thought about what I could accomplish in football, but for me, personally, when you read about Mike Webster and Dave Duerson and Ray Easterling, you read all these stories, and to be the type of player I want to be in football, I think I'd have to take on some risks that, as a person, I don't want to take on."

Borland was referring to former NFL greats who were diagnosed with the devastating brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or CTE, after their deaths. Duerson and Easterling committed suicide.

Borland said he began to have misgivings during training camp. He said he suffered what he believed to be a concussion stuffing a running play but played through it, in part because he was trying to make the team.

"I just thought to myself, 'What am I doing? Is this how I'm going to live my adult life, banging my head, especially with what I've learned and know about the dangers?'"

The saddest reaction, for me, came from Green Bay Packers director of player personnel Eliot Wolf, who tweeted the following (as if it contradicted Borland's actions):

"Anyone worried about the future of football should see the amount of calls & emails we get from kids literally begging to get into pro days."

It's not the future of football I'm worried about, Mr. Wolf, but the future of those kids begging to get into pro days.

49ers' Chris Borland retires...at 24...in good health...because...

Read this article. 

The outstanding rookie linebacker Chris Borland, formerly of the Wisconsin Badgers and stand-out fill-in for the injured Patrick Willis last season, is retiring after his rookie season, and he says there's just one reason for it.

"I just honestly want to do what's best for my health," Borland told "Outside the Lines." "From what I've researched and what I've experienced, I don't think it's worth the risk."
"I feel largely the same, as sharp as I've ever been. For me, it's wanting to be proactive," Borland said. "I'm concerned that if you wait 'til you have symptoms, it's too late. ... There are a lot of unknowns. I can't claim that X will happen. I just want to live a long, healthy life, and I don't want to have any neurological diseases or die younger than I would otherwise." 

This is the highest-profile player to decide that his quality of life was more important than the job he had spent his life building up to. Concussions are becoming a very serious thing, folks, and football as an entity needs to figure that out FAST!

Some great mid-major (and above) thoughts from "Fan-Sided"

Here are a couple of posts from the college football section of SI's FanSided, including one listing five schools who are not only ready to move up but additionally NEED to move up to a Power Five conference ASAP...a short clip about the contract extension for Boise State's head coach, but the real news is that little ol' Boise is giving its DC and OC three-year, million dollar contracts, something unheard of just a few years ago...and an interesting analysis of five schools who turn the two and three star recruits into five star players because of their coaching, style, consistency, and methods.

New Year's Six bowl games in progress!

JAN 1 UPDATE: Watching three really great bowl games simultaneously: Wisconsin finding a way to come back and defeat Auburn 34-31, using a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon running wild, as he has against everyone except Playoff contenders, it seems...Minnesota's  Maxx Williams hurdling Missouri players en route to a touchdown...Baylor's Bryce Petty throwing touchdowns to targets large and small, including a 400-pound target "wearing" a receiver's number as a half shirt!

There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)

Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!

What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year! 

Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?

HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.

Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers,  all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.

Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.

Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).



DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of  the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".

Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....

Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...

Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!

Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.

In one of the least shocking election results of the year...

...Marcus Mariota of the Oregon Ducks won the Heisman Trophy tonight as the outstanding ball-handling college football player from a really good team in the country. (Don't deny it. That's what it's been.) Mostly, it's been quarterbacks over the years, especially the last decade-plus, when except for 'Bama's Mark Ingram, every winner in years starting with a "2" has been a quarterback.

The top players at each position were singled out over the past week at the various award shindigs, with these consensuses (consensi?) reached:

Top quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Oregon. Lots of great QBs out there - why, Ohio St has a slough of them! - but Mariota absolutely deserves every accolade he gets.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. Great from start to finish, but it was his 408 in three quarter against the vaunted "Blackshirts" that was his Mona Lisa.
Top receiver: Amari Cooper, Alabama. In a year of great receivers - and great FRESHMAN receivers in particular! - Cooper lived up to his hype week after week, and deserved his moment in the Heisman spotlight today.
Top tight end: Nick O'Leary, Florida St. A great TE is ideally both a great blocker AND has great receiving skills. O'Leary does.
Top center: Reese Dismukes, Auburn. We'll be honest: we have no idea who the best offensive linemen are. But we know which teams have the best lines, and Auburn and Iowa certainly are on that short list.
Top interior lineman: Brandon Scherff, Iowa.

Top defensive player: Scooby Wright, Arizona. A spectacular player. Magnetized to the ball, as he always seems to be around it. But it wasn't one of those years when there was a serious defensive threat to the MVP campaigns of Mariota and others, as there is on the NFL side.
Top defensive end: Nate Orchard, Utah.
Top linebacker: Eric Kendricks, UCLA.
Top defensive back: Gerod Hollimon, Louisville.
Top placekicker: Brad Craddock, Maryland. This was our biggest surprise - Robert Agouyo at Florida St was the defending "best" and certainly didn't do anything to lose the title.
Top punter: Tom Hackett, Utah. As an Aussie football player, Hackett's skills there serve him extremely well punting - not kicking for height but to place the ball where he wants to place it.


Top scholar/athlete: David Helton, Duke.
Top coach: Gary Patterson, TCU. As always, a crowded field: hard not to include both Mississippi coaches, Jerry Kill at Minnesota, David Cutcliffe at Duke, Paul Johnson at GT, Urban Meyer at Ohio St... But Patterson may have been the only one who transformed his own style to fit the circumstance, to great success.

Do you agree? Comment and let us know!

We're not the ONLY ones with a Bottom Six, or Eight, or Ten...

Ryan McGee outdoes himself this week in the ESPN Bottom Ten wrap-up for the 2014 college football season - read it here; it's hysterical.

For the record, we agree with his assessment of Georgia State as the "number one" team of the Bottom Ten. You should also be aware that tradition holds in this particular countdown that the #5 spot changes week-by-week, and goes to a big name team who stunk particularly badly the previous week in particular; hence, Wisconsin earns the "coveted" spot this week after their 59-0 abomination Saturday night.

So, let's assume Boise finishes off Fresno tonight...

...(and it's 28-0 in the third quarter), what will our "final" FF tier-rankings look like? And, therefore, what do WE think the big bowls should look like when they're announced tomorrow?

Rank     Team                         Conf  Rec     Conf rec

A1	Oregon	pac	12-1	9-1
A2	Alabama	sec	12-1	8-1
A3	Florida St	acc	13-0	9-0
A4	Ohio St	b10	12-1	9-0
A5	TCU	b12	11-1	8-1
A6	Baylor	b12	11-1	8-1
B07	Mississippi St	sec	10-2	6-2
B08	Michigan St	b10	10-2	7-1
B09	Georgia Tech	acc	10-3	6-3
B10	Ole Miss	sec	9-3	5-3
B11	Kansas St	b12	9-3	7-2
B12	Auburn	sec	8-4	5-3
C13	LSU	sec	8-4	4-4
C14	Georgia	sec	9-3	6-2
C15	Missouri	sec	10-3	7-2
C16	Arizona	pac	10-3	7-3
C17	UCLA	pac	9-3	6-3
C18	Arizona St	pac	9-3	6-3
D19	Oklahoma	b12	8-4	5-4
D20	Wisconsin	b10	10-3	7-2
D21	Clemson	acc	9-3	6-2
D22	USC	pac	8-4	6-3
D23	Boise St	mw	11-2	8-1
D24	Minnesota	b10	8-4	5-3
E25	Nebraska	b10	9-3	5-3
E26	Louisville	acc	9-3	5-3
E27	Texas A&M	sec	7-5	3-5
E28	Arkansas	sec	6-6	2-6
E29	Duke	acc	9-3	5-3
E30	Colorado St	mw	10-2	6-2

We did what we suspect the committee MIGHT do (DESPITE all of OUR protests to the contrary over the last five days!) and LEAPFROG Ohio St over TCU (as we said, no matter what the committee's rankings said, Florida St was safe with a win, or there would be a nationwide manhunt for dead committee members).

We saw Ohio St take their third-string quarterback and do the same thing to freak'n Wisconsin that the Frogs did to 2-10 Iowa St, at home nonetheless... It's completely conceivable that the committee put OSU five so that if they were to win weakly with a backup at QB (the SAME backup they'd have in the playoffs), they could leave them OUT of the playoff with impunity. 

Here's another factor we take seriously here as Christians; it remains to be seen if it comes into play tomorrow. The Big Twelve blatantly changed its own rules last week to try to sneak TCU into the playoff. Despite their rules (ratified THIS SUMMER!) saying that head-to-head alone decided the conference champ, they knew the committee had insisted that conference champions would get first priority. Without the change, TCU was NOT a conference champ. Now they are. POOF! We are hopeful that a committee with people like Condoleeza Rice on it is ethical enough not to reward that kind of chicanery. Ohio St is an authentic conference champion. (So are Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St.) There's your four playoff teams. DONE.

What about the other bowls?

Automatic bids: Baylor (Big 12 champion, by the 'real' definition), and Boise St (Group of Five highest ranked champion).

Next teams in: TCU, Mississippi St, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, and Kansas St. (Your mileage may vary. These teams are much more subject to flux, as are their bowl placements.)

Bowl placements (the other four are best guess only):

Sugar Bowl (playoff): Florida St (#3) v. Alabama (#2)

Rose Bowl (playoff): Ohio St (#4) v. Oregon (#1)

    [As an aside, the B1G, Pac-12, and SEC champs go to their "traditional" sites. Dumb luck.]

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) v. Baylor (Big12 champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Boise St (Group of 5) v. Kansas St (Big 12)

Cotton Bowl: TCU (Big12) v. Ole Miss (SEC)

Peach Bowl: Mississippi St (SEC) v  Michigan St (Big 10)

SO? What do you think? We'll post the other #31-128 in a separate post momentarily...

So HERE'S a thought...

As the Ohio St Buckeyes lead what should be an outstanding Wisconsin team 38-0 at the half (and truth be told, it's not even THAT close!) with their THIRD quarterback in the game, carving the Badgers up... What if the CFP Committee only placed the Buckeyes fifth because of their uncertainty about Cardell Jones, the brand new starter? Having proven that they're that good even with their "star" out...wouldn't you at least harbor the possibility of bouncing them up into the top four, even though TCU won? Even if FSU wins?

Hmmmmmmmm.....

Thoughts from championship Saturday....

As the game between TCU and Iowa St is reaching its 55-3 conclusion, with the Horned Frogs having made their statement to the playoff committee, two tweets retweeted by TCU reporter Stefan Stevenson caught our eye. The first remarks on the ethics of coach Gary Patterson: 

• 
  3 hStefan Stevenson@FollowtheFrogs

  #Classystylepoints "@calexmendez: TCU has 55 points, kneeled on a fourth-and-goal at the 6.... with 4:05 to go."

  • Reply
  • Retweet
  • Favorite
• Immediately thereafter, the opposing viewpoint, or at least ONE opposing thought, was presented:

• 
  3 hStefan Stevenson@FollowtheFrogs

  Yep. "@byjoelanderson: If I played for Iowa State, I'd be way more offended that they treated us like a Make-A-Wish squad."

  • Reply
  • Retweet
  • Favorite

As we discussed Tuesday night, the committee has already made their decision, and 55-3 isn't going to give them any reason to change their minds... TCU will be in the playoff.

Congratulations to the SMU Mustangs! After the season from hell, in which their coach quit on them, two games in; in which game after game, their opponents have dominated them on both sides of the ball; in which, on the one occasion that they looked like  should win, South Florida drove the field for a touchdown, made them punt, and then finished the game with a ridiculous 21-play, eight-minute, three 4th down conversion drive that ended with a six yard touchdown pass on fourth down with six seconds to play to win 14-13...after all of that, they finally came up with a fourth quarter score to break a 20-all tie and defeat conference foe Connecticut 27-20. They end the season 1-11, break a thirteen game losing streak, and prevent the 2014 season from having a winless season this year.

Think about this: The 1-11 SMU Mustangs will enter the 2015 season on a longer winning streak than THREE of the four playoff teams will!

Good on you, Oklahoma St! On a five-game losing streak, down 35-21 to their Bedlam rivals Oklahoma, it would have been easy and understandable to simply let down and give in. Instead, they scored a touchdown, stopped the Sooners, and ran a punt return back to tie the game and send it on to overtime, where they just kicked a field goal to not only upset their rivals but become bowl eligible. 

The FCS playoffs are in the Round of Sixteen, and besides the Sam Houston St upset of Jacksonville St (that we predicted, thank you!), the home teams have rolled. Except for the defending champs, North Dakota St, who hosted their cross-border rivals from South Dakota St. The game was neck and neck, and SDSU moved ahead 24-20 with just over three minutes to go. The Bison did what all great teams do - they showed their greatness by driving the length of the field when they HAD to, scored that must-have touchdown with a perfect pass with fifty-four seconds to go, and intercepted the first pass SDSU threw to seal the victory. 

Hard to argue with the shows that three of the four CFP top four teams put on over the last twenty-four hours: we talked about TCU's victory, but Alabama and Oregon both won conference championships at neutral sites over division title winners with disarming ease. Last night, the Ducks avenged their only loss by annihilating Arizona 51-13, with Marcus Mariota clinching his impending Heisman Trophy win with five TDs with his arm and his legs. This afternoon, the Crimson Tide rolled over Missouri, 42-13, with Blake Sims confirming his coaches' faith in him when they surprised folks by naming him the starter. Now, it's up to defending champion Florida St to complete the picture tonight by beating the teams they beat exactly two years ago to start their 28-game winning streak, the Georgia Tech. If they win, the committee WILL NOT remove them from the playoffs. It just won't happen! But if they LOSE, they're gone. Period. Then,...who? Ohio St? Baylor? Both have tough games (Wisconsin and Kansas St, respectively) that they'll have to win to give the committee the opportunity to move them up into the four-spot.

Weasel coach watch..."What he said."

This Sports Illustrated article about Bret Bielema possibly taking the Nebraska job two years after moving out of the Big Ten to play with "the big boys" in the SEC (where he's 9-15 in two years)....yeah, Ms. Graham-W is as right as always.

Weasel.

Following Football follows TMQ's immutable law of Weasel Coaches: If you hire someone who's in it only for himself, you get someone who's in it only for himself. If you hire a Bobby Petrino, a Lane Kiffin, or any other coach who's willing to sneak around behind the back of his current job to talk with you about yours?...Don't be surprised when he stabs you in the back in a couple of years, too. It's no different than having an affair...the first thing you learn about a woman/man who will cheat or lie to be with you is that they're a cheater or a liar. Great way to start a relationship. 

And it's no different when hiring coaches.

Week 14 predictions on three fronts, from three directions!

Okay, we've got things organized enough now (finally, at the end of the American college season!) to put the Week 14 predictions together as follows: Here are the Vegas line, the Sagarin rating prediction, and the tier-produced FOLLOWING FOOTBALL projections, all in one place!

What's more, with a small docket of games at the college level on conference championship Saturday, we can list these all for not only the FBS games but also the FCS games (there's no Vegas line for those) and the NFL weekend as well!

Here are the FBS games, with the reminder that "visiting" may not mean anything at a neutral site like many of the conference title games are this week....

"visiting" team	"home" team	vegas line	FF line	sagarin difference
UCF	East Carolina	ECU -6	ECU -10.5	UCF -1.97
Northern Illinois	Bowling Green	NIU -7	NIU -4.5	NIU -5.72
Arizona	Oregon	Ore -13.5	Ore -4	Ore -10.36
Louisiana Tech	Marshall	Mar -12.5	Marsh -6	Marsh - 7.23
Houston	Cincinnati	Cin -6.5	Cin - 12	Cincy -10.20
SMU	U Conn	Con -11.5	Con -5	Conn -13.62
Iowa St	TCU	TCU -33.5	TCU -33	TCU - 33.52
Oklahoma St	Oklahoma	OU -20	OU - 16	OU - 23.51
Alabama	Missouri	Ala -14.5	Ala - 4	Ala -12.35
Temple	Tulane	Tem -3.5	Tem - 5	Temple -6.76
Kansas St	Baylor		Bay -4.5	Bay -4.85
Florida St	Georgia Tech	FSU -4	FSU -1.5	FSU -0.50
Wisconsin	Ohio St	Wisc - 4	OSU -3	OSU -1.35
Fresno St	Boise St	BSU -20	BSU -19	BSU -17.41

Interesting to note the admittedly few differences, particularly Central Florida's being favored by the computer and Wisconsin by the casinos. (There's currently no Vegas line for the Baylor/K-State game.)

Here are the FCS second round playoffs, hosted at the home field of the top eight ranked teams in the nation...

visiting team	home team		FF line	sagarin difference
Fordham	New Hampshire		NH -10	NH - 7.05
Indiana St	Chattanooga		Ch -3	Chat -3.24
Richmond	Coastal Carolina		CC -14	CC -10.96
Sam Houston	Jacksonville St		JSU -3	JSU -11.68
Northern Iowa	Illinois St		NIU -3	Ill St -0.98
South Dakota St	North Dakota St		ND -16	NDSU -12.89
Montana	Eastern Washington		EW -13	EWU -8.47
Liberty	Villanova		Vill -5	Vill -2.71

Of course, the hosts are favored in almost all cases, although we see Illinois State being in even more trouble than the computer does, and the same can be said for J-State's battle with pesky Sam Houston St, a perennial playoff powerhouse. But the top teams should make it through without difficulty.

Now, the NFL scene...

visiting team	home team	vegas line	FF line	sagarin difference
Dallas Cowboys	Chicago Bears	Dal -3.5	Dal - 5	Dallas -1.79
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	Cin -3.5	Cin -4.5	Cincy -5.09
St. Louis Rams	Washington Redskins	StL -3	Wsh -1	St. Louis -0.17
New York Giants	Tennessee Titans	NYG -1.5	Ten -1.5	NYG -0.42
Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	NO -10	NO -5.5	NO -7.86
New York Jets	Minnesota Vikings	Min -6	Min -5	Min - 6.17
Baltimore Ravens	Miami Dolphins	Mia -3	Mia -4	Miami -4.82
Indianapolis Colts	Cleveland Browns	Ind -4.5	Indy - 3	Indy -2.96
Tampa Bay Bucs	Detroit Lions	Det -10	Det -13	Detroit -13.39
Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Hou -5.5	Hou -4	Houston -7.46
Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Den -10	Den -11	Denv -10.32
Kansas City Chiefs	Arizona Cardinals	Ariz -1.5	Ariz -7	Ariz - 2.5
Seattle Seahawks	Philadelphia Eagles	Phi -1	Phil -4	Phil -2.59
San Francisco 49ers	Oakland Raiders	SF -9	SF -4	San Fr -6.41
New England Pats	San Diego Chargers	NE -4	NE -2	NE -4.31
Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	GB -12.5	GB -13	GB -13.59

Again, there's great similarity between the three projections, and ironically the two games that we forecast home "underdogs" to win, we'd personally prefer to see the visiting team win! 

The Arizona game is interesting with a sub quarterback in and the other injuries they're dealing with, which we don't take into account (also why the casinos are higher on Wisconsin, given Ohio St's QB situation. But we resisted the temptation to skew the tiers to match that reality...let the situation play out! How many folks thought JT Barrett would be a bust, too?)

We're in love with Holly Anderson...

Here's Holly's guide to the upcoming week watching college football, including the in-stadium pillow fight in South Dakota, the rivalry games on tap, and a woman riding an alligator!

Melvin Gordon was amazing. But you knew that.

From SI's Monday Morning QuarterBack and Peter King, this eye-opening analysis of the amazing day Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had last week against the Huskers...

Melvin Gordon, the Wisconsin running back, rushed for 359 yards Saturday … in two quarters. That was one wacky game the Heisman candidate had against Nebraska. Quarter by quarter, how Gordon set the single-season college football rushing record on a snowy Saturday in Madison:

Quarter	Carries	Yards	Average per rush	TD
1	6	49	8.2	0
2	10	189	18.9	1
3	9	170	18.9	3
4	-	-	-	-
TOTAL	25	408	16.3	4

 

Three times in 11 weeks this season has an NFL back rushed for at least 170 yards in a game—Rashad Jennings of the Giants (176 in Week 3), Mark Ingram of the Saints (172 in Week 8) and Jonas Gray of the Patriots (199 in Week 11).

Gordon did it twice Saturday, in two separate quarters. 

Notes from Saturday's games

Again, our apologies for not updating yesterday - technical difficulties prevented it. Here are some of our notes from November 15th...

First, we HAVE to start with Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, who only needed three quarters to break the FBS record for rushing yards in a game. In 25 carries, he amassed 408 yards against the freak'n University of Nebraska! It's not like they played the College of Faith or something! Averaging over 16 yards a carry, he had SIX rushes of at least 35 yards, and SEVEN in which he wasn't TOUCHED for at least 20! It was his fifth 200+ yard game as a Badger. (Finally, in contrast, Wake Forest hasn't rushed for 408 all season - they have just 341 yards on 317 carries in ten games!)

Fumbles at the goal line are becoming more and more common. After the tragic (Ole Miss) and the comical (Utah), the fumbles this week were more conventional. Of primary note was the second TD Alabama scored on Mississippi St... It sure looked to this typist like the fumble came before the touchdown, and how would THAT have changed the outcome of the game?

We wrote about this yesterday, but it bears repeating: Playing the 128th best team in FBS AND BEING SHUT OUT, South Florida had to score a touchdown with about eight minutes to go in the game to close to 13-7, force a punt, and then go on what has to be the drive of the year: twenty-one plays, six minutes,  75 yards, converting three fourth downs along the way, including 4th and goal on the two with six seconds to go, which of course they converted to win the game over SMU, 14-13. What a heartbreaking way to lose!