UPS AND DOWNS - flip flopping the schedule!

We'll go through the Weekend Wesults either later today or tomorrow, but so much else is happening that we really want to get this piece out today... because there are a TON of folks who are UP and even more who are DOWN all of a sudden...

UP - a belated UP-UP-UP to the THREE-PEAT champions of the Australian Football League, the HAWTHORN HAWKS! Coming into a Grand Final against a team that had spanked them by 31 points three weeks ago, coming in with an older roster that had to cross the country four times in three weeks while West Coast sat at home and won a pair of games before travelling to Melbourne to play in the fabled MCG, "the home of footy"...and once there, play like they were in awe of the situation, while the Hawks were in "been there, won that" mode, demolishing the Eagles in a game not unlike last year's demolition of the also high-flying Sydney Swans - a brief, half-period of hope, followed by one-and-a-half quarters of the most devastating footy you'll ever see, leaving the second half to basically be a procession to the throne for Hawthorn, unquestionably the outstanding franchise of the 21st century at this point. What's more, it was no fluke - imagining another team to outplay them next year is difficult, and probably a measure of self-destruction will be necessary for other clubs to fancy themselves as "flag favorites" at any point in 2016.

DOWN-DOWN-DOWN-DOWN to the coaches already jettisoned in the FBS, barely halfway through the season - Randy Edsell at Maryland, for whom the bell tolled last year but who survived to coach another season, only to start out 2-4 with routs from West Virginia, Ohio St and Michigan on his record. The three-TD loss to Bowling Green of the MAC was the worst of the lot, but as always, there's more to the story...With Steve Sarkisian of USC, the struggle is straightforward: alcohol abuse, combined with life stresses, pushed him well over the edge of professional behavior after a drunken appearance at a major booster event, another reported one at the Arizona St game, and the worst this Sunday when he arrived for practice completely plowed. He was immediately put on leave, and today was relieved of his duties by AD Pat Haden. His situation is different than Edsell's, especially if you believe that alcoholism is a disease, rather than purely a choice on a person's part. While the university personnel are saying all the right things - we support him in his quest to get healthy - and well they should, as we all should, it's hard for me not to look at these circumstances for a professional and say, Isn't there a line you realize you shouldn't cross long before you reach this point? Of course, he's not the first coach for whom addictions played a role in losing his "dream job" - some for their own abuses, some for abetting those of players; some for alcohol, some for drugs, some for violence, and some for sex. But somehow, somehow, there's got to be more than just sympathy for a coach who has the self-discipline to succeed in a profession that demands self-discipline more than almost any other, and yet can't find the self-discipline to curb his own addiction issues, or get help for them before they destroy him. There's got to be something more akin to responsibility for his actions, beyond the firing. Sarkisian's issues have destroyed his life - but probably only temporarily. He'll get another coaching job, and like Jim Tressel, Kelvin Sampson, and other previous disgracees, he'll resume his career. But the players, university personnel, boosters, and fans of USC football won't forget...Just added in the last few hours, two more coaches with reason to feel down - North Texas (former) head coach Dan McCarney, who was handed his pink slip today after UNT (already the creators of tier "V" in the FBS division this year for their ineptitude) not only lost as we predicted to FBS Big Sky Portland State (at home, on Homecoming of all days), but lost by the Baylor-esque score of 66-7 (actually, that's exactly the score Baylor had against Kansas Saturday. But that was BAYLOR, not a tier O, 3-2 FCS team!). It was the largest loss by an FBS (or "1-A") school to an FCS (or "1-AA") school in history. So, let's see, at least North Texas gets a break now to work a new coach in...what? They play Western Kentucky? The conference favorite? On THURSDAY? Great timing, UNT....AND last because the headliner always goes last, the Head Ball Coach himself, Steve Spurrier, retired from coaching today as South Carolina sits at 0-4 in the SEC East, 57th ranked in the country, tier J on the Following Football charts, and idiots calling for the head of the master when they aren't worthy to carry his jock strap. I feel on this one like I do on Adam Goodes being humiliated by Australian "fans" - yes, he should retire at the end of the year, and yes, if he had been an ass about it you could argue for removal then. But he single handedly made the SEC the most relevant conference in the country - he deserves a better send-off than this. I'm no Spurrier fan, but he had more football knowledge in his ball cap than I've had my entire existence.

(And by the way, one further DOWN to those idiots in Australia I just mentioned, for preventing Goodes from participating in ANY of the retired star activities that his fellow (and all lesser) stars got to do this fall (spring there) because he didn't want any booing to distract from the celebration for the others. A hero to the last, Mr. Goodes. You deserved so much better than this.)

DOWN also to poor Joe Philbin, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, who was never going to keep his job there after the issues that took place under his watch, which from our standpoint didn't seem to be his fault. But you've got to have a fall guy, and we'll guarantee 1-3 one fourth of the way through an NFL season is hardly reason to fire your coach - especially when you weren't figuring to set the world on fire to begin with. But as so often happens, when the boss wants to make a change, and the GM has the wrong players on the roster, the only one you can get rid of quickly is the coach. Good luck, Miami - here's betting the next twelve games are no better.

Weekend Wesults!

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...

If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!

In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.

In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.

With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.

Huh....

Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.  

Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...

"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers. 
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17. 
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36! 

And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.

So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!). 

Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...

Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread.  [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.

Prophecies In Phootball for the First Weekend of October 2015!

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've updated the errors pointed out to us, as well as the ones we noticed ourselves, but we've promised not to change any predictions except the one we had the line wrong on originally (BYU/U Conn).

Let’s start with the big one! The Australian Football League Grand Final!

At about 10:45 pm Friday night, Mountain Time, you can go to afl.com.au and listen to the Grand Final between the two teams who had the best seasons top to bottom, and fairly unanimously the two best teams right now – the West Coast Eagles and the defending champion Hawthorn Hawks. (You can also get the video if you pay for it.) 

The difference? Hawthorn’s been there. West Coast hasn’t. We expect a classic game – high flying, high scoring, and one where a couple of key mistakes by the Eagles and a couple of key cash-ins from the Hawks means that Hawthorn becomes only the fifth team to win three consecutive titles.

Hawthorn 110, West Coast 88.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 149-56 overall (72%); 122-83 against the spread (59% "ATS"). We also currently LEAD our segment of the afl.com.au “tipping” (predicting) finals pool with just the one game to go next week. Crossing our fingers!

CFL

It’s Week 15, with six to go, five games for most teams. Here’s our forecasts for the four games up this weekend…and the one on Tuesday!

1-Oct	Montreal (5-7)	20	Ottawa (7-5)	23
2-Oct	Calgary (10-3)	33	Hamilton (8-4)	35
3-Oct	Edmonton (9-4)	27	Winnipeg (4-9)	10
3-Oct	Saskatchewan(2-11)	14	BC Lions (4-8)	27

PLUS the game on Tuesday, between Ottawa and Toronto, where Ottawa’s five-day turnaround and being on the road slays them in the second half and Toronto pulls away to win, 28-15.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 32-24 overall (57%), 3-1 this week; 30-24-2 ATS (56%)

NFL

Going to divide these up into two categories: yes, we’re confident in our picks!, and throw a dart at the board type picks… Some we feel good about, and some we don’t! But we pick every game, every week, by gum, and we won’t hesitate now!

Confident in our picks:

Ravens (-2.5) at Steelers: Pittsburgh to win outright! Vick is a quality backup, and they can run the ball.

Texans (+6.5) at Falcons: Atlanta to cover and win big. They’ve got it going right now.

Raiders (-3) at Bears: Chicago to cover and win. Every metric we have says so.

Chiefs (+3.5) at Bengals: Cincinnati wins and covers: see Atlanta’s comments. They need to make hay!

Panthers (-3) at Bucs: Carolina in a landslide! Cam will get the calls because Tampa’s QB’s even younger!

Rams (+7) at Cardinals: Cardinals by more than 7. The best team in football not owned by a town.

Vikings (+7) at Broncos: We think Denver has it figured out now. Broncos to cover.

Saints (-5.5) at Cowboys: I don’t care who QBs Dallas, the Saints are a mess. Dallas wins outright.

Throw a dart, flip a coin:

Jets (-1) “at” Dolphins in London: Jets win. We think.

Giants (+6) at Bills: We’re taking Buffalo and giving the points.

Jaguars (+9.5) at Colts: It just seems too high for the off-kilter Colts right now. Jax plus the points.

Eagles (-3) at Redskins: When in doubt, bet against the Redskins.

Browns (+7.5) at Chargers: That extra half-point tipped us towards the Browns to cover.

Packers (+9) at 49ers: Plus nine? That seems like a lot… We’ll take SF…no, we can’t. Packers.

Lions (+10) at Seahawks: Plus TEN? THAT’S too high. I think. Lions to cover only.

Guaranteed:

The Patriots will NOT win this weekend! And the Titans will NOT lose!

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 30-17 straight up, 30-17 against the spread this season. (Both 64%.)

NCAA FBS:

AWRIGHT! The conference schedule is well underway starting this week, and there are some really lousy games in conference…and some really GREAT ones, too! Let’s give you the highlight games first, and then hit the rest of the conference games:

ACC – The highlight “ACC” game involves the conference’s new “adjunct” member, Notre Dame, coming to SC to play Clemson. The Irish are favored by half-a-point…take Clemson to win.

Other interesting games include BC @ Duke (-6.5) [take Duke to cover], Louisville @ NC State (+4.5) [NC State will win outright], North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-7) [Tech by double digits], Pitt @ VaTech (-4.5) [VT covers], and Miami goes out of conference to play @ Cincinnati (+6) [Miami covers easily].

On the flip side, there’s also Florida St @ Wake Forest (+19), which isn’t enough…take FSU -19.

B1G – The highlight game? Well, there really isn’t one…Maybe it’s Minnesota @ Northwestern (-5), which would have been tilted the other way before the season. Now? Take the Wildcats -5.

Other games? Indiana @ Ohio State (-21) [hmm…tough call. In the end, OSU gets a cheap TD to cover], Michigan @ Maryland (+14) [easy: Wolverines are hot. Michigan and points.], Purdue @ Michigan St (-22) [Sparty will cover], Army @ Penn St (-26.5) [PSU wins big, but not THAT big!], Nebraska @ Illinois (+6.5) [we’re backing the Illini to cover only], and Iowa @ Wisconsin (-6.5) [don’t trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover].

Big XII – To us, the best game of the Big 12’s weekend is West Virginia @ Oklahoma (-6.5). We’re bullish on the Sooners (we’ve got them in Tier A!) but WVU is good enough to keep it close. We say OU wins but WV covers.

The rest of the slate is full of interesting games, too! At the bottom end, Kansas @ Iowa St (-16) for the “wooden spoon”, as the Aussies would say. [too close to call! Can Iowa St push past sixteen? Can they SCORE sixteen? We were wrong last week siding with Kansas; let’s side against them and go for ISU to cover.], Baylor and Texas Tech (+15.5) in Jerryworld [Baylor runs up the score], Kansas St @ OK St (-8.5) [K-State wins outright!], and Texas @ TCU (-15) [poor Longhorns. This is all they need. If TCU wins by a lot more than 15, as we think they might, Charley Strong may not survive the weekend.].

PAC-12 – Our fave game this weekend is Arizona @ Stanford. We’ll get to see who and what’s real – is Stanford as good as the beatdown they gave USC? Is Arizona as weak as they looked last week? The line is Stanford -14, which is too many: Arizona covers but the Cardinal wins.

Other games are varied, some good, some dull: Washington St @ Cal (-19) [gut feeling: Golden Bears cover], Oregon @ Colorado (+8) [everyone’s down on Oregon, but Colorado can’t do to them what Utah did – take OU in a smackdown of frustration], and Arizona St @ UCLA (-13.5) [we have it higher on every metric – take UCLA!].

SEC – The BIG ONE! Alabama breaks its 72-game streak of being favored, going to Georgia (-2.5). Our metrics are all over the place on this one, and honestly we’re just looking forward to watching the game! We’re siding with Georgia, for an irrational reason: Mark Richt is the best Christian in the coaching fraternity, and we’d like to see him get “over the hump” this year, so to speak. Terrible theory, but it’s our blog, and we’ll do as we please!

The other games should be fun, too: Ole Miss @ Florida (+7.5) [Ole Miss is too good], Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky(-26) [let’s say EKU stays close!] South Carolina @ Missouri (-3.5) [Mizzou covers], Arkansas @ Tennessee (-6) [our tiers have the Vols by 15!], Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee (-0.5) [should be a great game! We like Vandy – they’ve played well in their close games!], San Jose St @ Auburn (-19.5) [can’t believe the line’s only 19.5! Double it.], Eastern Michigan @ LSU (-44.5) [depends completely on your belief as to when they call off the Tigers…], and Mississippi St @ Texas A&M (+7) [can’t believe A&M’s not favored at home! Take the Aggies to win!].

The American! – You have to put the exclamation point in there! Sounds prouder! No real close games, but the best one involves new member Navy hosting military rival Air Force from the MWC, with the Naval Academy four point favorites. The winner of the round-robin tournament each year (including Army) wins the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, and these two teams are the overwhelming favorites, given Army’s hard times. In Annapolis, we believe in the Naval Academy to cover and take the trophy.

Elsewhere, UCF @ Tulane (-2) [wrong! UCF should win by about a TD!], East Carolina @ SMU (+5.5) [SMU’s better than they were last year – they should be closer. But we’ll hold our breath…], Memphis @ USF (+9.5) [double it. Memphis by 19 or more.], Temple @ Charlotte (+23.5) [we have faith in Temple. Lay the points.], UConn @ BYU (-19.5) [it's going to be a bit more - 20-30 point win for BYU], Houston @ Tulsa (+6) [double it: Houston by 12 or more].

Conference USA – By far, the most interesting and pivotal game is Western Kentucky @ Rice (+8), and as much as we’d love to see WKU run this string out, more than a TD’s too much. Rice to cover.

UTSA @ UTEP (+3.5) [El Paso wins this battle of initials], North Texas @ Southern Miss (-16) [too high – UNT covers], UL-Lafayette @ Louisiana Tech (-19) [also too high – ULL covers], Old Dominion @ Marshall (-19.5) [the Herd may not be Thundering like in years past, but they’ll thunder past that by halftime], and FIU @ U Mass (-3.5) [take Florida International to WIN outright].

#MACattack! – the hashtag is legally required… Several games of note, and we’ll single one out in each division: Bowling Green @ Buffalo (+9.5) in the East, and BGSU wins by LESS than 9; and Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (+2) in the West, and we like NIU to win by much MORE than that.

The rest of the slate sees Ohio @ Akron (+2.5) [Ohio wins and covers], Miami-Ohio @ Kent St (-10.5) [too high – take Miami to cover], Toledo @ Ball St (+6.5) [it’s Toledo’s year – take them every time], and, to review, U Mass loses to FIU and Eastern Michigan routed by LSU. 

Mountain West – The battle for second in the Mountain division takes place in Logan, where Colorado St plays @ Utah St (-4.5). With QB gone, we’re leaning towards CSU to cover at least, although neither will be able to handle Boise in the weeks to come.

Speaking of which, Boise’s favored at home against Hawaii by 24.5? Yet every metric says it’ll be more than that, so take the Broncos on the Blue. New Mexico St @ New Mexico (-12.5) [NMSU is possibly the worst team in the FBS...; lay the points], Wyoming @ Appalachian St (+25.5) […unless it’s Wyoming. Lay the points.], UNLV @ Nevada (-6.5) [yes, it’s a rivalry, yes, throw the records out; bet Nevada-Reno and lay the points], and the other important game of the weekend in the MW, Fresno St @ San Diego St (-9) [too high: Fresno should keep it closer than nine points]. A reminder – Air Force loses to Navy, and SJSU loses at Auburn.

Sun Belt – The most interesting game won’t have much bearing on the title race, but South Alabama @ Troy (-6) has predictions all over the board. We’re going with our tier metric, which gives Troy the advantage.

Besides App St beating Wyoming and UL-Lafayette trailing LaTech, look for Idaho @ Arkansas St (-20) [Red Wolves cover], Georgia Southern @ UL-Monroe (+6) [GASO covers easily], and Liberty at Georgia St (+7) [which team knows how to win? Liberty covers].

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 281-64 (81%) straight up, 188-155-2 against the spread (55%) this season.

NCAA – FCS

Here are the key games throughout the Division 1-AA (FCS) realm for this first weekend of October, and our predicted victors are in underlined boldface:

Missouri Valley –  Indiana St @ Missouri St by 5, North Dakota St @ South Dakota St by 3, Northern Iowa @ Illinois State by 5, Southern Illinois @ Western Illinois by 1, and Youngstown St @ South Dakota by 4.

Big Sky – Idaho State @ CalPoly SLO by 11, Montana @ UC Davis by 13, Montana St @ Northern Arizona by 9, North Dakota @ Portland St by 11, Northern Colorado @ Sacramento St by 11, Southern Utah @ Weber St by 1.

Colonial – Elon @ New Hampshire by 17, Stony Brook @ James Madison by 13, Maine @ Richmond by 14, William & Mary @ Delaware by 11, Albany @ Holy Cross by 4

Southland – Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian by 8, Northwestern St @ Incarnate Word by 7, Sam Houston St v Stephen F Austin by 17, Lamar @ SE Louisiana by 1.

Big South – Alabama A&M @ Coastal Carolina by 34, Bryant @ Monmouth by 6, and Presbyterian @ Western Carolina by 3.

Southern Conference – Wofford @ Mercer by 7, Bucknell @ VMI by 1, McNeese St @ Nicholls St by 31, and South Carolina St @ Furman in overtime.

Northeast Conference – Central Connecticut St @ Duquesne by 18, St. Francis @ East Tennessee St by 3, and Wagner @ Robert Morris by 6. 

Ohio Valley – Eastern Illinois @ Austin Peay by 21, Mississippi Valley St @ Jacksonville St by 41,  Murray St @ SE Missouri St by 14, UT-Martin @ Tennessee Tech by 4.

Pioneer – Drake @ Campbell by 6, Dayton @ Stetson by 19, Jacksonville @ Morehead St by 18, Marist @ San Diego by 13, and in the game matching the two lowest ranked teams in all 253 Division I possibilities, somehow both Valparaiso @ Davidson will lose! (All right…Davidson loses 2-0.) 

Ivy League – Rhode Island @ Brown by 16, Columbia @ Princeton by 24, Dartmouth @ Penn by 17, Georgetown @ Harvard by 27, Yale @ Lehigh by 7.

Patriot League – Fordham @ Lafayette by 13, Colgate @ Cornell by 11, and we’ve covered all the others (Bucknell over VMI, Georgetown loses to Harvard, and Lehigh to Yale).

MEAC – Bethune-Cookman @ NC Central by 5, Florida A&M @ Savannah St by 3, despite being 0-4 themselves, Morgan St @ Delaware St by 7, NC A&T @ Hampton by 7, Norfolk St @ Howard by 5, and we mentioned SC State and Furman too close to call in regulation.

SWAC – Alabama St @ Texas Southern by 3, Alcorn St @ Ark-Pine Bluff by 18, and Grambling St @ Jackson St by 9.

There you have it – EVERY division 1 game predicted this time…not just “the ones we want”. Let’s see how we do!

This is an AMAZING video!

Peter Dickson created an amazing view of the 2014 AFL Grand Final through the eyes of two random fans, good friends, one who roots for Hawthorn and one for Sydney. 

If you like the work NFL Films does, you'll LOVE this one!

Also, the AFL film folks premiered a piece on the world as seen through the eyes of footy superstar Gary Ablett Jr of the Gold Coast Suns - not having Australian television, I haven't seen it yet, but a short version was posted on the AFL website that looks like they did a remarkable job putting it together!

How the NFL Super Bowl affects the AFL Grand Final...

Here's an interesting piece of effluvia... The AFL head man, Gillon McLachlan, came to America to watch the Super Bowl in person, and came away with the thought that seeing Katy Perry under the lights is more fun than watching her in the daytime would be. 

Currently, the Grand Final is always played in the middle of the afternoon, a daytime game, and it's been that way forever. But with the impetus from the AFL CEO, and the motivation of the newly installed lighting system at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds (the MCG - "the home of footy", where the Grand Final is played every year), the start of a conversation is there now to change the way the Grand Final looks after the current TV contract expires in 2016. 

What do YOU think? Should the AFL move their premiere event to prime time? (For us here in Idaho, that puts it at 4 in the morning, instead of 10 at night...no bueno for Americans...) Let us know in the comments!