As is often the case, ESPN is on top of the college spring practice scene, and more importantly, where teams are leaning as we look ahead to the fall. This piece by their Pac-12 man (and college go-to-guy!) Ted Miller does a great job surveying the landscape and looking at the BIG PICTURE in FBS football, as of March 2015!
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Showing posts with label Ole Miss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ole Miss. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
The final AP poll for 2014 (compared to ours!)
Here's Dr. Saturday's Nick Bromberg and his article on the final AP poll of the year. There are several interesting rankings to notice...
> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).
> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them.
> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23.
Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:
AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis
And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...
> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).
> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them.
> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23.
Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:
| 1. Ohio St (AP #1) |
| 2. Oregon (AP #2) |
| 3. Alabama (AP #4) |
| 4. Florida St (AP #5tie) |
| 5. TCU (AP #3) |
| 6. Michigan St(AP#5tie) |
| 7. Baylor (AP #7) |
| 8. Georgia Tech (AP #8) |
| 9. Miss St (AP #11) |
| 10. Georgia (AP #9) |
| 11. UCLA (AP #10) |
| 12. Ole Miss (AP #17) |
| 13. Missouri (AP #14) |
| 14. Kansas St (AP #18) |
| 15. Clemson (AP #15) |
| 16. Wisconsin (AP #13) |
| 17. Auburn (AP #22) |
| 18. Boise St (AP #16) |
| 19. Arizona St (AP #12) |
| 20. USC (AP #20) |
| 21. Arizona (AP #19) |
| 22. LSU |
| 23. Utah (AP #21) |
| 24. Texas A&M |
| 25. Stanford |
AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis
And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...
Thursday, January 1, 2015
New Year's Six bowl games in progress!
JAN 1 UPDATE: Watching three really great bowl games simultaneously: Wisconsin finding a way to come back and defeat Auburn 34-31, using a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon running wild, as he has against everyone except Playoff contenders, it seems...Minnesota's Maxx Williams hurdling Missouri players en route to a touchdown...Baylor's Bryce Petty throwing touchdowns to targets large and small, including a 400-pound target "wearing" a receiver's number as a half shirt!
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
Saturday, December 6, 2014
So, let's assume Boise finishes off Fresno tonight...
...(and it's 28-0 in the third quarter), what will our "final" FF tier-rankings look like? And, therefore, what do WE think the big bowls should look like when they're announced tomorrow?
Rank Team Conf Rec Conf rec
Rank Team Conf Rec Conf rec
| A1 | Oregon | pac | 12-1 | 9-1 |
| A2 | Alabama | sec | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| A3 | Florida St | acc | 13-0 | 9-0 |
| A4 | Ohio St | b10 | 12-1 | 9-0 |
| A5 | TCU | b12 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| A6 | Baylor | b12 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| B07 | Mississippi St | sec | 10-2 | 6-2 |
| B08 | Michigan St | b10 | 10-2 | 7-1 |
| B09 | Georgia Tech | acc | 10-3 | 6-3 |
| B10 | Ole Miss | sec | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| B11 | Kansas St | b12 | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| B12 | Auburn | sec | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| C13 | LSU | sec | 8-4 | 4-4 |
| C14 | Georgia | sec | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| C15 | Missouri | sec | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| C16 | Arizona | pac | 10-3 | 7-3 |
| C17 | UCLA | pac | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| C18 | Arizona St | pac | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| D19 | Oklahoma | b12 | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| D20 | Wisconsin | b10 | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| D21 | Clemson | acc | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| D22 | USC | pac | 8-4 | 6-3 |
| D23 | Boise St | mw | 11-2 | 8-1 |
| D24 | Minnesota | b10 | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| E25 | Nebraska | b10 | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E26 | Louisville | acc | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E27 | Texas A&M | sec | 7-5 | 3-5 |
| E28 | Arkansas | sec | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| E29 | Duke | acc | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E30 | Colorado St | mw | 10-2 | 6-2 |
We did what we suspect the committee MIGHT do (DESPITE all of OUR protests to the contrary over the last five days!) and LEAPFROG Ohio St over TCU (as we said, no matter what the committee's rankings said, Florida St was safe with a win, or there would be a nationwide manhunt for dead committee members).
We saw Ohio St take their third-string quarterback and do the same thing to freak'n Wisconsin that the Frogs did to 2-10 Iowa St, at home nonetheless... It's completely conceivable that the committee put OSU five so that if they were to win weakly with a backup at QB (the SAME backup they'd have in the playoffs), they could leave them OUT of the playoff with impunity.
Here's another factor we take seriously here as Christians; it remains to be seen if it comes into play tomorrow. The Big Twelve blatantly changed its own rules last week to try to sneak TCU into the playoff. Despite their rules (ratified THIS SUMMER!) saying that head-to-head alone decided the conference champ, they knew the committee had insisted that conference champions would get first priority. Without the change, TCU was NOT a conference champ. Now they are. POOF! We are hopeful that a committee with people like Condoleeza Rice on it is ethical enough not to reward that kind of chicanery. Ohio St is an authentic conference champion. (So are Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St.) There's your four playoff teams. DONE.
What about the other bowls?
Automatic bids: Baylor (Big 12 champion, by the 'real' definition), and Boise St (Group of Five highest ranked champion).
Next teams in: TCU, Mississippi St, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, and Kansas St. (Your mileage may vary. These teams are much more subject to flux, as are their bowl placements.)
Bowl placements (the other four are best guess only):
Sugar Bowl (playoff): Florida St (#3) v. Alabama (#2)
Rose Bowl (playoff): Ohio St (#4) v. Oregon (#1)
[As an aside, the B1G, Pac-12, and SEC champs go to their "traditional" sites. Dumb luck.]
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) v. Baylor (Big12 champ)
Fiesta Bowl: Boise St (Group of 5) v. Kansas St (Big 12)
Cotton Bowl: TCU (Big12) v. Ole Miss (SEC)
Peach Bowl: Mississippi St (SEC) v Michigan St (Big 10)
SO? What do you think? We'll post the other #31-128 in a separate post momentarily...
Saturday, November 29, 2014
More on rivalries...
Watching the Egg Bowl, we want to emphasize that just because the key element is the unpredictability of the outcome, that doesn't mean that proximity isn't important, sharing a conference, division, and state aren't important, and that enmity doesn't abound - after the Ole Miss runback, the Mississippi St defenders had a few leftover turkey recipes to share with their Rebel opponents...
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
College predictions for Week 13!
Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Ever take a look at the Massey Index?
No, it's not a money-market fund, nor a government economic indicator. It's the composite of 121 different rating systems from all across the country, in an attempt to derive the ultimate "meta-ranking", the consensus of all the polls and surveys and computer rankings and "systems" as best Kenneth Massey can do. Take a look - it's amazing! (It's also overload, if you're not ready for it!)
A few things to notice...
1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)
2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.
3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.
4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)
5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.
6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.
A few things to notice...
1. Their top four are Alabama, Mississippi St, Oregon, and TCU. (The one difference is that we have Oregon 5th, and Florida St in the top 4. Massey lists them seventh.)
2. The SEC has strength. They have the top two (it was the top four last week!), four of the top six, and six of the top 12. Within that top twelve, there are also two Pac-12 schools, two Big-12 schools, an ACC rep and one from the Big-10.
3. Marshall is 21st. (We have them in Tier E, which is #25-30.) Following them, the next highest "Group Of Five" school is Boise St, at #30.
4. Records aren't all that important. It depends who you played...and more often, whom you beat. #1 Alabama has a loss, and the three undefeated teams are #2, #7, and #21. Two-loss Auburn and Ole Miss are #5 and #6, respectively, and three-loss LSU is #12. (So, you can lose, if you're losing to top-ten SEC teams...)
5. There are teams the Massey Index loves - Louisiana Tech is all the way up in #39, whereas we have them in Tier K, equivalent to #61-66 - and there are teams that really sink in this ranking, like South Florida, whom we have in Tier P (#97-100). They come in at #111, just above Tier S Hawaii and just behind Tier R- Southern Miss.
6. #128 is not SMU! Despite being the only winless team in the entirety of FBS, the woeful Mustangs are only #127...Georgia St gets the honor of falling just below them into the cellar (and it's not really close). At least they were also a Bottom Six team (actually, we only had a Bottom Five in tier U this week) - and those five teams come in at spots #123, 124, 126, 127, and 128, with only Tier T Eastern Michigan disturbing the sweep at #125.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
So, who's still IN?
All season long, ESPN has played the "Eliminator" game, voting teams off the island each week who no longer have a chance to make the four team College Football playoff.
It's been an interesting exercise, not unlike our 128 team tiering of the whole of the FBS landscape - half of their teams were eliminated the first week (and in truth, as they admit today, could have been before the season), but they're down to nine teams: Alabama, Arizona St, Baylor, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio St, Ole Miss, Oregon, and TCU.
Do you agree with their list? Those nine teams comprise the six "Tier A" teams, the one "B+" team, and two of our five other "Tier B" teams (the others are Auburn, Nebraska, and Notre Dame; we would argue that Nebraska still has a shot).
They also have an "On The Fence" category, which makes no sense to us - either you have a chance, or you don't. Simple. For whatever it's worth, they list Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Georgia, Kansas St, Michigan St, Nebraska, and UCLA in that category. It's impossible for us to consider the two and three loss teams on that list as viable; they won't consider Duke, even though they could be a one-loss ACC champ with a defeat of Florida St on their resume; and that just leaves Nebraska, as we said before.
SO...ten teams. Four weeks to go. Several of them play each other; they all have some tough tests ahead of them. Right now, here's our pecking order (COMPLETELY subject to change on a weekly basis!) ---- but the fun is in following the football and finding out what happens!
1. Mississippi St
2. Alabama
3. Florida St
4. TCU
5. Oregon
6. Baylor
7. Ohio St
8. Arizona St
9. Nebraska
10. Ole Miss
It's been an interesting exercise, not unlike our 128 team tiering of the whole of the FBS landscape - half of their teams were eliminated the first week (and in truth, as they admit today, could have been before the season), but they're down to nine teams: Alabama, Arizona St, Baylor, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio St, Ole Miss, Oregon, and TCU.
Do you agree with their list? Those nine teams comprise the six "Tier A" teams, the one "B+" team, and two of our five other "Tier B" teams (the others are Auburn, Nebraska, and Notre Dame; we would argue that Nebraska still has a shot).
They also have an "On The Fence" category, which makes no sense to us - either you have a chance, or you don't. Simple. For whatever it's worth, they list Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Georgia, Kansas St, Michigan St, Nebraska, and UCLA in that category. It's impossible for us to consider the two and three loss teams on that list as viable; they won't consider Duke, even though they could be a one-loss ACC champ with a defeat of Florida St on their resume; and that just leaves Nebraska, as we said before.
SO...ten teams. Four weeks to go. Several of them play each other; they all have some tough tests ahead of them. Right now, here's our pecking order (COMPLETELY subject to change on a weekly basis!) ---- but the fun is in following the football and finding out what happens!
1. Mississippi St
2. Alabama
3. Florida St
4. TCU
5. Oregon
6. Baylor
7. Ohio St
8. Arizona St
9. Nebraska
10. Ole Miss
Saturday, November 8, 2014
What an insane afternoon of football!!!!
Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.
Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.
Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!
We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...
Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!
Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.
The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.
An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]
While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....
Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.
A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
You want chaos? Pat Forde'll show you chaos!
Copied straight from today's "Forde-Yard Dash" column: the method for a five way tie in the vaunted SEC West. He also details the situations in the Big Ten, the old Big East, the ACC and Mountain West; and then revisits twelve of the most devastating plays in CFB history (after the way that Treadwell broke his leg in losing the ball and the touchdown and the game for Ole Miss Saturday).
FIVE-WAY TIE IN THE SEC WEST? DARE TO DREAM
As an avowed sower of discord and champion of chaos, here is exactly what The Dash wants to see happen over the next four weeks:
LSU (7) wins out. The Tigers would finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC, with victories over Alabama and Ole Miss and losses to Auburn and Mississippi State.
Alabama (8) loses Saturday in Baton Rouge, then wins out to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide would have wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and losses to Mississippi and LSU.
Auburn (9) defeats Georgia on Nov. 15, but loses to Alabama in the Iron Bowl to finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Tigers would have wins over LSU and Ole Miss, and losses to Mississippi State and Alabama.
Mississippi (10) regroups from the disastrous ending Saturday night to win out and finish 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Rebels would have wins over Alabama and Mississippi State, and losses to LSU and Auburn.
Mississippi State (11) finally falls, losing on the road to Alabama on Nov. 15 and in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 29, finishing 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Bulldogs would have wins over LSU and Auburn, and losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.
And there you’d have it: five teams with identical records, and all with 2-2 marks against each other. No massive upsets required the rest of the way, just a lot of teams defending home field. Let the SEC have fun with that tiebreaker.
By The Dash’s reading of the league’s guidelines, it could come down to the seventh tiebreaker: conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents. As it stands today, these are your numbers there: Auburn 6-7 (Georgia and South Carolina); LSU 5-7 (Florida and Kentucky); Alabama 4-7 (Florida and Tennessee); Mississippi State 2-9 (Kentucky and Vanderbilt); Mississippi 1-9 (Tennessee and Vanderbilt).
If it somehow gets to the eighth tiebreaker? That’s a coin flip. And if it comes to that, the South may not survive.
Here’s what else might not survive: If the league has a two-loss champion, does it get a playoff bid?
Monday, November 3, 2014
Odd thoughts on a Monday morning...
The Pittsburgh Steelers have only had three head coaches in the last forty-five years: Chuck Knoll (won four championships), Bill Cowher (one title), and Mike Tomlin (one title so far). How many coaches has YOUR team had since 1969?...
College kids are dumb sometimes. Especially overly macho football players.
Remember the Michigan players who threw down a stake into the MSU logo - on their field - when they were favored to lose by three touchdowns - and then lost by four touchdowns?
Well, Maryland's captains, in a fit of arrogance, chose not to shake hands with their Penn State counterparts Saturday - for no apparent reason except rivalry - given the fact that they were 1-34 for their last 35 meetings with the Nittany Lions, that word "rivalry" sounds a bit strong to us, regardless of the Terrapins victory this weekend (a 20-19 "rout").
On the other end of the sportsmanship spectrum, we watched Army and Air Force stand at attention for each other's hymns after the game Saturday morning. Cool, but expected. What was even cooler was when Notre Dame did the same thing for Navy after their game Saturday evening. The connection between the two teams goes all the way back to WW2, when the Fighting Irish helped keep Navy's team "afloat" while all of their eligible players were doing more important things in Europe and the Pacific theater. Very cool, Notre Dame.
The heartbreaking way that Ole Miss lost to Auburn Saturday night - with Daquon Treadwell's broken leg literally adding injury to insult - makes you rethink the importance of the "game" that we follow so seriously. Next week, Ole Miss will be an afterthought - playing Presbyterian College, in a classic SEC semi-bye week game - but Treadwell will be undergoing surgery and beginning a long, long rehab assignment for the use of his leg, whether he plays any more silly games with the football again or not.
College kids are dumb sometimes. Especially overly macho football players.
Remember the Michigan players who threw down a stake into the MSU logo - on their field - when they were favored to lose by three touchdowns - and then lost by four touchdowns?
Well, Maryland's captains, in a fit of arrogance, chose not to shake hands with their Penn State counterparts Saturday - for no apparent reason except rivalry - given the fact that they were 1-34 for their last 35 meetings with the Nittany Lions, that word "rivalry" sounds a bit strong to us, regardless of the Terrapins victory this weekend (a 20-19 "rout").
On the other end of the sportsmanship spectrum, we watched Army and Air Force stand at attention for each other's hymns after the game Saturday morning. Cool, but expected. What was even cooler was when Notre Dame did the same thing for Navy after their game Saturday evening. The connection between the two teams goes all the way back to WW2, when the Fighting Irish helped keep Navy's team "afloat" while all of their eligible players were doing more important things in Europe and the Pacific theater. Very cool, Notre Dame.
The heartbreaking way that Ole Miss lost to Auburn Saturday night - with Daquon Treadwell's broken leg literally adding injury to insult - makes you rethink the importance of the "game" that we follow so seriously. Next week, Ole Miss will be an afterthought - playing Presbyterian College, in a classic SEC semi-bye week game - but Treadwell will be undergoing surgery and beginning a long, long rehab assignment for the use of his leg, whether he plays any more silly games with the football again or not.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...
Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!).
Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...
Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).
Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.
Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.
Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.
Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.
Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.
Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.
Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...
Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).
Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.
Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.
Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.
Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.
Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.
Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
About those NCAA committee rankings...
First of all, here's the big reveal of the NCAA Football Committee's first efforts, released Tuesday evening. No big surprises: Mississippi St, Florida St, Auburn, and Ole Miss are the first four teams in the present rankings.
The top two were a given, and it's hard to argue that either Auburn or Ole Miss is unworthy of the next two spots, although there are a half-dozen teams about whom we could say the same thing: we have TCU, Notre Dame, and Alabama as our next three alongside Ole Miss, but as we've said, any of the one-loss teams in Tiers A or B would be acceptable to us.
A couple of thoughts come to mind for us, though:
Given that the three SEC West teams still play each other, there's going to be a great deal of change in that order. (Auburn plays at Ole Miss this Saturday, so one of them walks away from that with two losses.)
Secondly, the committee has a sense of humor. Look at the way the games would have laid out in their projections (which they KNOW won't be the final order) -
Mississippi St vs Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl
Florida St vs Auburn in the Rose Bowl
As Heather Dinich or whomever points out, that would have been a repeat of last year's BCS championship, in the same stadium in Pasadena, AND a repeat of the season ending Egg Bowl game, in the stadium as close to Mississippi as possible.
Wouldn't THOSE be two sweet matchups?
Finally, for those crying "SEC West FAVORITISM", look at the records, and look at the games. And if that's still not enough, relax by looking at the upcoming schedules: They're going to kill each other off. By definition, no more than two teams in the SEC West can finish the regular season with fewer than two losses now. There will NOT be a trifecta in the championship tournament. (Now, if you add Georgia into the mix...)
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Looking forward to Week 9 in college football with our SCIENTIFIC tools!
There are some great games coming this weekend, the first one on Thursday night when Tier F Louisville hosts Tier A Florida St! By tiering, the best game of the weekend should be Auburn @ Ole Miss, where the polls have the Tigers above the Rebels, but we have Ole Miss in Tier A and Auburn a rung lower in B; hence, we're favoring Ole Miss (and, if we were actually making bets, "taking the points").
Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.
Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.
Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:
Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...
*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!).
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!
We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!
Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.
Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.
Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:
Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...
*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!).
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!
We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!
Sunday, October 26, 2014
We've reached the Week 8 CFB tiers Penthouse!
That's right, the thirty best teams as decided on the field so far this year, divided into the top five tiers (and no closer, as berated before!), for your amusement!
Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]
Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!
Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12).
Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).
As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!
Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though!
[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]
Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]
Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!
Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12).
Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).
As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!
Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though!
[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]
Sunday, October 19, 2014
The Tiers have NARROWED for Week 7!
As we reach the halfway point of the season, we're narrowing the tiers again, down to SIX teams per tier. Eventually we'll get down to four, and at season's end we'll submit our final ranking order, from 1-124...but it's premature and unnecessary to do so now.
Tier A hosts the top six school teams as of now: three undefeateds (Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Florida St*) and three teams whose one loss was narrow, on the road, and to a top tier team (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU). Hard to deny them - almost hard to think there will be ANY unbeatens at season's end except for minor league champ Marshall.
Tier B contains six one-loss power teams, any of whom we could see beating even the Tier A teams on a given day: Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Oregon.
Tier C has Arizona, Duke, LSU, Nebraska, USC, and West Virginia. The Wildcats, Blue Devils, and Cornhuskers have one loss each; the others have last twice. But none of the nine losses were what you'd call embarrassing or 'inappropriate' - losing to good teams, no blowouts, and so forth. They'll hold their own against almost anyone, but we'd make them underdogs to the Tier A and B teams in a heartbeat.
When we get down to Tier D, some of these losses are a bit less excusable. These equate to rankings #19-24 in a conventional poll: Arizona St (5-1), East Carolina (5-1), Kansas St (5-1), Oklahoma (5-2), UCLA (5-2), and 5-1 Utah.
Tier E is essentially the equivalent of the fourth tier in last week's divisions, if comparisons are important to you: 5-2 Clemson, Colorado St (6-1), Kentucky (5-2), undefeated Marshall, Minnesota (6-1), and 5-2 Oklahoma St.
Tier F hosts six teams that (while not deserving grades of "F"!) have been disappointments at one level or another, more recently in particular: Georgia Tech (5-2, losers of their last two), Louisville (6-2), Maryland and Missouri (both 5-2), idle 4-2 Penn St, and free-falling Texas A&M, losers of three straight to three Tier A teams! What a killer schedule!
Now we've reached the levels of "receiving token votes" in the conventional polls, but these teams all have successes to boast of this year: Boise St, Miami-FL, Oregon St, Rutgers, Washington, and Wisconsin. All except the U have two losses; the Hurricanes have three. So, that's Tier G.
Tier H changed in drafts several times, but we've settled on Arkansas (4-3 in the toughest division in CFB history), Iowa (5-2), 4-3 Stanford and South Carolina and Utah St and Virginia.
The last level matching up with last week's divisions is Tier I, which features these competent teams: Air Force, Boston College, California, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Virginia Tech.
In the unofficial "tiery-eyed teams in waiting" green room are such teams as Bowling Green, fast-falling BYU, Florida, Houston, Northwestern, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Temple, and Texas Tech.
*If the Tallahassee police and FSU compliance officers truly put justice ahead of football success, do you think the Seminoles would still be undefeated?
And on the flip side, the Bottom Eight becomes the Bottom Six (plus seven more)... The undisputed master of the B6 is the lone winless team left in the FBS, the coachless SMU Mustangs, joined by Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St, and Troy. "Congratulations" to those clubs, some of whom were so far down that even a win didn't get them out of the basement!
Waiting for entrance to the exclusive club are Appalachian St, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, North Texas, UConn and UMass. Actually, three of those just escaped the B8, so "waiting" is inappropriate...
Tier A hosts the top six school teams as of now: three undefeateds (Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Florida St*) and three teams whose one loss was narrow, on the road, and to a top tier team (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU). Hard to deny them - almost hard to think there will be ANY unbeatens at season's end except for minor league champ Marshall.
Tier B contains six one-loss power teams, any of whom we could see beating even the Tier A teams on a given day: Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Oregon.
Tier C has Arizona, Duke, LSU, Nebraska, USC, and West Virginia. The Wildcats, Blue Devils, and Cornhuskers have one loss each; the others have last twice. But none of the nine losses were what you'd call embarrassing or 'inappropriate' - losing to good teams, no blowouts, and so forth. They'll hold their own against almost anyone, but we'd make them underdogs to the Tier A and B teams in a heartbeat.
When we get down to Tier D, some of these losses are a bit less excusable. These equate to rankings #19-24 in a conventional poll: Arizona St (5-1), East Carolina (5-1), Kansas St (5-1), Oklahoma (5-2), UCLA (5-2), and 5-1 Utah.
Tier E is essentially the equivalent of the fourth tier in last week's divisions, if comparisons are important to you: 5-2 Clemson, Colorado St (6-1), Kentucky (5-2), undefeated Marshall, Minnesota (6-1), and 5-2 Oklahoma St.
Tier F hosts six teams that (while not deserving grades of "F"!) have been disappointments at one level or another, more recently in particular: Georgia Tech (5-2, losers of their last two), Louisville (6-2), Maryland and Missouri (both 5-2), idle 4-2 Penn St, and free-falling Texas A&M, losers of three straight to three Tier A teams! What a killer schedule!
Now we've reached the levels of "receiving token votes" in the conventional polls, but these teams all have successes to boast of this year: Boise St, Miami-FL, Oregon St, Rutgers, Washington, and Wisconsin. All except the U have two losses; the Hurricanes have three. So, that's Tier G.
Tier H changed in drafts several times, but we've settled on Arkansas (4-3 in the toughest division in CFB history), Iowa (5-2), 4-3 Stanford and South Carolina and Utah St and Virginia.
The last level matching up with last week's divisions is Tier I, which features these competent teams: Air Force, Boston College, California, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Virginia Tech.
In the unofficial "tiery-eyed teams in waiting" green room are such teams as Bowling Green, fast-falling BYU, Florida, Houston, Northwestern, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Temple, and Texas Tech.
*If the Tallahassee police and FSU compliance officers truly put justice ahead of football success, do you think the Seminoles would still be undefeated?
And on the flip side, the Bottom Eight becomes the Bottom Six (plus seven more)... The undisputed master of the B6 is the lone winless team left in the FBS, the coachless SMU Mustangs, joined by Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St, and Troy. "Congratulations" to those clubs, some of whom were so far down that even a win didn't get them out of the basement!
Waiting for entrance to the exclusive club are Appalachian St, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, North Texas, UConn and UMass. Actually, three of those just escaped the B8, so "waiting" is inappropriate...
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Good reflection on mid-season college football...
...from the folks at Grantland. The consensus for even the very near future is that there's no way to predict what's going to happen...and, so much for the playoff killing off the interest in the regular season!
Grantland - midseason CFB storylines
Grantland - midseason CFB storylines
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Without further ado...the Week 6 Tiers!
Tier 1
Alabama (5-1, thanks to a blocked XP), Baylor (6-0, thanks to local timekeepers), Florida St (6-0, thanks to the Tallahassee PD), Mississippi St (6-0, legitimately), Notre Dame (6-0, no thanks to the stud QBing for North Carolina) , Ole Miss (also legit 6-0), Oregon (5-1), and TCU (4-1 and deserving of Tier 1 by proving against OU and Baylor that they deserve to be up here!).
Tier 2
Auburn (5-1 and probably just on vacation from the top tier), Arizona (5-1, and a failed two-pt conversion from undefeated), Georgia (5-1, after proving they are not just Todd Gurley), LSU (5-2), Michigan St (5-1, but they'd prefer three-quarter games), Oklahoma (5-1; see Auburn), Oklahoma St (5-1), and UCLA (4-2, all due to Brett Hundley).
Tier 3
Clemson (4-2), Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-1), Kansas St (4-1), Nebraska (5-1, higher if we could forget McNeese St), Ohio St (4-1), Texas A&M (5-2, and our pastor will never set foot in the state of Mississippi again!), and USC (4-2).
Tier 4
Arizona St (4-1), Kentucky (5-1, and a 3OT loss from perfection), Louisville (5-2), Marshall (6-0, and a decent schedule away from perfection), Missouri (4-2, embarrassed by Georgia yesterday), Stanford (4-2), West Virginia (4-2), and Utah (4-1, and getting the hang of this Pac-12 thing).
Tier 5
Maryland (4-2), Minnesota (5-1, thanks to a great runback for the winning TD), Oregon St (4-1), Penn St (4-2 and fading), Rutgers (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), and Washington (kur man Chris Petersen is starting to get the 5-1 Huskies moving smoothly!).
Tier 6
Arkansas (4-2, the lowest ranked SEC West team is still on the board!), Boston College (4-2), BYU (4-2 and falling faster than PSU), Colorado St (5-1 and on the rise), Florida (3-2, and the biggest mystery in the nation), Iowa (5-1), Miami-FL (4-3), and Utah St (4-2 and more and more looking like the cream of the MWC).
Tier 7
Air Force (4-2, and brought back to earth by USU), Boise St (4-2), Bowling Green (5-2), California (5-2, waxed by Washington), Northwestern (3-3), South Carolina (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), and Wisconsin (4-2).
On the outside, looking in...
Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech...
Alabama (5-1, thanks to a blocked XP), Baylor (6-0, thanks to local timekeepers), Florida St (6-0, thanks to the Tallahassee PD), Mississippi St (6-0, legitimately), Notre Dame (6-0, no thanks to the stud QBing for North Carolina) , Ole Miss (also legit 6-0), Oregon (5-1), and TCU (4-1 and deserving of Tier 1 by proving against OU and Baylor that they deserve to be up here!).
Tier 2
Auburn (5-1 and probably just on vacation from the top tier), Arizona (5-1, and a failed two-pt conversion from undefeated), Georgia (5-1, after proving they are not just Todd Gurley), LSU (5-2), Michigan St (5-1, but they'd prefer three-quarter games), Oklahoma (5-1; see Auburn), Oklahoma St (5-1), and UCLA (4-2, all due to Brett Hundley).
Tier 3
Clemson (4-2), Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-1), Kansas St (4-1), Nebraska (5-1, higher if we could forget McNeese St), Ohio St (4-1), Texas A&M (5-2, and our pastor will never set foot in the state of Mississippi again!), and USC (4-2).
Tier 4
Arizona St (4-1), Kentucky (5-1, and a 3OT loss from perfection), Louisville (5-2), Marshall (6-0, and a decent schedule away from perfection), Missouri (4-2, embarrassed by Georgia yesterday), Stanford (4-2), West Virginia (4-2), and Utah (4-1, and getting the hang of this Pac-12 thing).
Tier 5
Maryland (4-2), Minnesota (5-1, thanks to a great runback for the winning TD), Oregon St (4-1), Penn St (4-2 and fading), Rutgers (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), and Washington (kur man Chris Petersen is starting to get the 5-1 Huskies moving smoothly!).
Tier 6
Arkansas (4-2, the lowest ranked SEC West team is still on the board!), Boston College (4-2), BYU (4-2 and falling faster than PSU), Colorado St (5-1 and on the rise), Florida (3-2, and the biggest mystery in the nation), Iowa (5-1), Miami-FL (4-3), and Utah St (4-2 and more and more looking like the cream of the MWC).
Tier 7
Air Force (4-2, and brought back to earth by USU), Boise St (4-2), Bowling Green (5-2), California (5-2, waxed by Washington), Northwestern (3-3), South Carolina (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), and Wisconsin (4-2).
On the outside, looking in...
Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech...
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