Update: North of the Equator

>>> What's the over/under on Johnny Manziel? I mean, in terms of him completely falling off the cliff of sanity, dying, whatever.

>>>  So, were the Rams and Eagles really the teams most in need of QBs? Denver made a good pick in Paxton Lynch - he'll play well right away. Whether Dallas' pick of OSU's Ezekiel Elliot at the #4 slot pays off or not, it's definitely a Jerry Jones pick! But at least it's not a Greg Hardy reach...

>>> Who's "rebuilding", and who's making their push for 2016? You let us know what you think!

>>> What Tennessee and Tampa are trying to do to protect their young prodigy quarterbacks is promising on both fronts. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen...

>>> Baltimore claims they pulled the plug on drafting Jeremiah Tunsil because of the "supposedly hacked" social media post with a bong. Right or wrong move?

 

Why?

If you're Johnny Manziel, and you're trying to get a job in the NFL, and the word on the street is you can't get your head out of your tail long enough to actually work at your job, why are you hanging out with someone like Josh Gordon, who just got picked up AGAIN for drugs and cannot ever APPEAL for reinstatement into the league for the rest of the year?

And why, if you're Von Miller, do you even consider letting Manziel room with you at this point?

And why do I care at this point? Is it the car crash theory - like Lindsay Lohan or Kim Kardashian or Mike Tyson, you just can't look away at some point of ludicrosity (a word I just made up)? When he gets a JOB, then I can justify it...

NFL Free Agency update

I actually posted this on our Facebook page quite a few days ago, and never brought it back to the house, so to speak... Here's a great piece on the current state of the NFL free agency madness, with some definitive winners (like the Raiders and Buccaneers) and losers (look'n at you, SF and Cleveland...). Denver's still up in the air - if they still have the time to get a qualified quarterback, they'll be fine. If...

Some NFL thoughts since last we met...

...Congratulations to the Denver Broncos, who won Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara with a dominant defensive performance against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.
...The Peyton Manning saga couldn't have gotten any heavier in drama, could it? Put the Sheriff in during the second half of the last game of the season to save the top seed, leave him in for the playoffs, where he does just enough to get the Broncos past the Steelers and his old nemesis the Patriots, and then rides on the back of his legendary defense to a second title and the perfect way to go out a winner.
...Speaking of retirements, why are the Detroit Lions so poisonous that the great players retire? First Barry Sanders, and now Calvin Johnson? Megatron, like the great Barry, is a quiet man who didn't need the money or the accolades; when he was ready to stop, he simply stopped. But I just can't help but think that if he'd been with a team that had, say, hope, he'd stay another year or two.
...Free agency? Kind of strange, as always. At Following Football, we don't really care much about things like free agency, the draft, or fantasy football - basically anything that glorifies the individual over the team. But there were some interesting moves over the last several weeks since SB50: the Giants' work in signing most of a new defense; positive movement for teams like Tampa, Oakland, Houston, and maybe Chicago. Bad news for Denver and Cleveland, although getting rid of Johnny Manziel is going to be a huge plus.
...Martavis Bryant and Joseph Randle proved they're both idiots and addicts. Never mind the suspensions - in order to reach that level of suspension, this was the sixth failed drug test for Bryant in four years, and the fourth in barely over a year for Randle. And they KNEW they were going to be tested!! Hope those drugs were worth flushing your career down the toilet, careers that will pay you far more than anything else you're qualified to do in your life.
...Quarterback shuffles: Brock Osweiler to Houston, which means Denver's desperate for a quarterback. San Francisco wants to deal Colin Kaepernick, but that will leave them without a quarterback on the roster worth their salt. The Jets are similarly desperate to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick, because if they don't, they're also screwed. In the NFL, you have to have a great QB, or at least a solid one. Even with a defense like Denver won with this year, they still had the Brain of Manning, and a good semi-rookie in Osweiler going 5-2 in between. (Manning went 10-2, by the way, even counting when he was injured.) You're not going to win with Tyrod Taylor. Sorry, but you're just NOT. There are probably eight WINNING quarterbacks in the NFL - Rodgers, Brady, etc. - and another 8-12 who you can WIN WITH - Flacco, Luck, Ryan, Manning this year - if the other pieces are exemplary. The rest CANNOT win. Period.

Get that quarterback. If Carson Wentz or Jarrod Goff are that good, sell the farm to get them.

Prophecies for the second week of November - professional division!

Yesterday, we posted the Following Football ACNC predictions for the college games of the week (since the MAC starts on Tuesday for a few weeks, giving us something like 26 days of non-stop football! WHOOPEE!). Today, let's dive into the pros on our normal Wednesday edition of Prophecies In Phootball!

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE - Playoff edition!

Here's the playoff grid for the CFL, having just played twenty-two weeks to eliminate three teams...

EASTERN division)   BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders Saturday. The odds favor Calgary by, and we like them by even more: a 7-11 team travels to a 14-4 defending champion? Take Calgary plus the points.

Next Saturday, the winner goes to Edmonton to play the division champion Eskimos.

WESTERN division)   Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton TigerCats Saturday. Again, the home team is favored by, and even so we're going to take Hamilton plus the points. The TiCats were the best team in the league for most of the season, and really didn't fade as much as have quarterback injury issues, while Ottawa nipped them at the wire in that spectacular home-and-home series the last two weeks. The Argos get their starting QB back, but we like the experience of Hamilton.

Next Saturday, the winner of this game goes to Ottawa to play the second-year RedBlacks for the division title!

Then, on November 29th, the 103rd Grey Cup will match the division champions for the title!


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE - week ten

Here's our grid for the week - DEN+ means we like Denver to win by MORE than the point spread, and MIN- means that we like Minnesota to do better than losing by the point spread (either lose by less or win outright):

Week 10		(Nov 12-16)
Home		Away		Vegas Line	FF Ratings	My Pick
Jets		Bills		NJ -3	E/D -1	BUF -
Ravens		Jaguars		B -5.5	E/G -7	BAL +
Packers		Lions		GB -11.5	B/H -15	GB +
Eagles		Dolphins		PH -6.5	D/F -7	PHI +
Steelers		Browns		PT -4.5	C/H -13	PIT +
Rams		Bears		SL -8.5	C/F -9	CHI -
Buccaneers		Cowboys		TB -1.5	G/F -1	TB +
Titans		Panthers		CA -4.5	A/G -15	CAR +
Redskins		Saints		NO -1.5	F/F +3	WAS -
Raiders		Vikings		OAK -3	D/C+ 0	MIN -
Broncos		Chiefs		DN -6.5	B/C- -6	DEN +
Giants		Patriots		NE -7	E-/A -6	NE +
Seahawks		Cardinals		SE -3	B/B -3	no pick
Bengals		Texans		CN -10.5	A/G- -16	CIN +

And because we hadn't had a chance to publish them yet, here are the current tiers and rankings:

Tier A) 1. New England. 2. Cincinnati. 3. Carolina.

Tier B) 4. Denver. 5. Green Bay. 6. Arizona. 7. Seattle.

Tier C) 8. Minnesota. 9. St. Louis. 10. Pittsburgh. 11. Kansas City.

Tier D) 12. Atlanta. 13. Buffalo. 14. Philadelphia. 15. Oakland.

Tier E) 16. New York Jets. 17. Baltimore. 18. New York Giants.

Tier F) 19. New Orleans. 20. Washington. 21. Dallas. 22. Chicago. 23. San Diego. 24. Miami.

Tier G) 25. San Francisco. 26. Tampa Bay. 27. Indianapolis. 28. Tennessee. 29. Jacksonville. 30. Houston.

Tier H) 31. Cleveland. 32. Detroit. 

Prophecies for the first week of November, 2015!

Let’s start with the NCAA for a change! We’re going to address each conference separately, looking for FOUR specific games in each (so we may not hit every single game):

Game Of The Week (Which of this week’s games is most important or interesting?)

Blowout Game (Which game should be over by halftime?)

Best Bet In Vegas (Which game does Following Football think gives folks the best chance to win a bet?)

Other Games Of Interest (The catch-all category of games we hadn’t mentioned yet but we want to!)

HERE WE GO!

Big Ten GOTW – Either Penn St @ Northwestern (-2.5, give the points) or Illinois @ Purdue (-1, take IU to win).

Blowout – Rutgers @ Michigan (-22, and still give the points!).

BBIV – Iowa @ Indiana (+6.5, but Iowa will win by double that!)

Of interest? – Michigan St @ Nebraska (+4.5, but has Big Red given up already?) and Minnesota @ Ohio St (-23, can the Gophers keep fighting for their epileptic retired coach like last week?)

Big XII GOTW – Definitely TCU @ Oklahoma St (+5; we see it as a field goal difference). The first of the four team round robin to determine the XII’s “one true champion”!

Blowout – Anything involving Kansas. This week, it’s Kansas @ Texas (-28.5, but we think Texas may also be giving up) and also Iowa St @ Oklahoma (-24.5, but OU will want to run it up).

BBIV – Nothing looks obvious…

Of interest? Baylor @ K-St (-17.5, and rely on the Bears to run it up, even with a new QB) and we’re very curious about Texas Tech @ West Virginia (-7.5, just a tad high?).

ACC Game of the YEAR – To decide the Atlantic division, and probably the conference, Florida St @ Clemson (-12, only on a hunch – our numbers match Vegas’).

Blowout – Not much of one: Syracuse @ Louisville (-11.5, take the Cardinals).

BBIV – Duke @ North Carolina (-8.5, but think of Duke as a one-loss team, not two: Miami doesn’t count!)

Of interest? Notre Dame comes to Pitt (+8.5, too low a line) in the Irish’ continued joint venture with the Atlantic Coast schools that’s supposed to net them…what?

Pac 12 GOTW – Utah @ Washington (+1.5; it should be Utah winning, and anything except a one-point win means give the 1 ½ points, right?)

Blowout – Stanford @ Colorado (+16.5, but it should be at least three TDs).

BBIV – California @ Oregon (-5.5, but the Ducks are living on last year’s rep. This should be an even game.)

Of interest? The markers on the Arizona St @ Washington St (-2.5) game are all over the place – it seems as likely for one team to win as the other, although Wazzu took Stanford to the wall last week…

SEC Game of the YEAR (another one?) LSU @ Alabama (-6.5). If LSU’s unbeaten, and ranked higher than ‘Bama…why is the Tide a TD favorite? We’ve got indicators both ways – and so we’re going to bet this way: Take the UNDER (47.5 total points). We think it’s more of a 21-17 game than a 35-31 one.

Blowout – Vanderbilt @ Florida (-21, and we’re taking a flyer on Vandy’s defense here).

BBIV – We like the odds for the next two West division squads at home Saturday: Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-10.5) and Auburn @ Texas A&M (-7) – take the home teams to cover.

Of interest? What happens when Mississippi St goes to Mizzou (+7.5)? Both teams are kind of all over the place! We’re taking the Bulldogs but not confidently.

American GOTW – Like the Big Twelve, we’re entering the round-robin elimination phase: Navy @ Memphis (-8.5; close call, but here’s to hoping that the Tigers smell blood and the chance to do something special with this season).

Blowout – Temple @ SMU (-12, not exactly a blowout…but it will be…).

Of interest? Cincinnati @ Houston (-8.5; when in doubt bet for the Cougars) and Central Florida @ Tulsa (-15.5; when in doubt, go against UCF…).

Conference USA GOTW – Marshall @ Middle Tennessee (-3, unbelievably – why isn’t Marshall favored? Take the Herd!). Also, obviously, our BBIV.

Blowouts – Two classics: North Texas @ Louisiana Tech (-29, and it’s still not high enough), and Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky (-24.5, ditto).

Of interest? A middle-of-the-road game, Rice @ UTEP (+7, take the Owls), and a bottom-of-the-ladder game, Old Dominion @ UTSA (-11, but that’s too high – take the points with ODU).

Mountain West GOTW – Not much, so let’s look at the two OOC games: BYU @ San Jose St (+12, but the Cougars should cover that) and Army-WP @ Air Force (-17; we have the Commander-In-Chief trophy game at -23 ourselves).

Blowout – Utah St @ New Mexico (+14).

BBIV – Colorado St @ Wyoming (+10.5, but it should be less).

Of Interest? Nevada @ Fresno St (+4.5, too high) and Hawaii @ UNLV (-9.5, too low)

Sun Belt GOTW – The second of the championship games, Arkansas St @ Appalachian St (-12, too low by a TD). With a win Thursday night, App St should virtually clinch its first conference title as an FBS team, in just its second year.

Blowout – New Mexico St (it often is!) @ Texas St (-15.5, but it may not be THAT bad…)

BBIV – Can’t believe UL-Lafayette is only favored by 4 at Georgia St!

Of interest – Always interested in what Idaho does @ South Alabama (-9.5, too high).

MAC Game of Last Week – We’re into November, which means the MAC is into its Tuesday/Wednesday swing. Northern Illinois beat Toledo in the Glass Bowl, 32-27, and to be honest, we called it the other way.

Blowout – This one we nailed: Bowling Green at home over Ohio, 62-24 (the spread was 19.5 points).

BBIV – Akron @ U Mass (-1.5, but Akron should win outright!)

Of interest – Eastern Michigan has the longest conference losing streak in the nation, but play @ Miami-OH Saturday, who is only favored by 5.5 points. Here’s betting EMU breaks that streak, and gives the Redhawks the longest losing streak in the conference…

Advance notice of NEXT week’s early games – Of course we don’t know point spreads yet, but for the Tuesday games we like Ohio over Kent St at home and for once-beaten Toledo to handle Central Michigan up north. Then on Wednesday, two road teams should win: Bowling Green @ Western Michigan and Northern Illinois over Buffalo.

FCS: Missouri Valley Game of the Week: Illinois State @ South Dakota St (there is no point spread on FCS games, but we expect SDSU to win a close one.

Blowout: Whomever Missouri State has to play: MSU @ Youngstown St (by 28+).

Of interest: Southern Illinois @ South Dakota – Sagarin and HERO have SIU the favorite; we like South Dakota at home. Let’s see who’s right!

Colonial GOTW: Richmond @ New Hampshire. We think the Spiders keep it going – they took down JMU on the road (in front of ESPN!), and they’ll win this one, too.

Blowout: William & Mary @ Elon by at least 17.

Of Interest: We have Towson winning at Maine, but others don’t – again, we’ll find out!

Big Sky GOTW: Southern Utah @ Montana State- a good test, but one we think SUU will win by a TD.

Blowouts: Plural – Portland State @ Northern Colorado (by at least 15) and Cal Poly at home vs Sacramento St (also by 15+).

Of Interest: Following Football is heading down to Pocatello this weekend to see Montana play at Idaho State with a UM grad friend and our ISU freshman son. Expecting a Grizzly victory by 14 or so, but hoping for something closer!

Southland GOTW: A HUGE GAME, maybe the biggest of the season: Sam Houston State @ McNeese State! SHSU is the experienced team, but McNeese is unbeaten and at home – we’ll take the latter to virtually clinch the division Saturday night!

Blowout: Nicholls St @ Lamar, where the latter wins by 20+ this weekend.

Of Interest: The other potentially close game this week is Abilene Christian @ Northwestern St, and we’re calling for the Louisiana doubleheader sweep this weekend!

Ohio Valley GOTW: The second of three challengers to #1 Jacksonville State goes down this weekend, but we think Eastern Illinois at home will at least be competitive: let’s say, JSU by between 7-22 points!

Blowout: Like the MVC, look to one team: Austin Peay loses @ SE Missouri St this week by at least 14, probably much more.

Of interest: The other two top four teams also play, and UT Martin @ Eastern Kentucky should be a pretty competitive game as well! We like EKU by around 7-10 points.

Southern Conference GOTW: The most interesting is certainly Western Carolina @ Furman – projections are all over the place, with each team favored by as many as nine depending on who you ask! We’re taking Furman by nine, but we’ll claim ANY win as a victory for us!

Blowout: VMI @ The Citadel could get really ugly. Like, 24-36 points ugly. So could Chattanooga @ Mercer.

Of interest: East Tennessee St @ Robert Morris – Each team needs a win like California needs water. We like RM by about ten.

Big South GOTW: It’s gotta be Charleston Southern @ Kennesaw State! KSU, in its first year of organized football, is 6-2, and actually threatening for the conference title at 2-1. The only team above it is CSU, after a defeat of defending champ Coastal Carolina last week. Will they suffer a letdown? Is Kennesaw really that good? We’re betting “NO”, and taking Charleston by 20 or so. (But we can’t wait to find out!)

Blowout: Possibly that game, but more probably it’ll be Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina, still fuming over the probable loss of the conference title last week and ready to take it out on GW by 30 or more points.

Of Interest? All that’s left is Presbyterian @ Liberty. Not that interesting.

Pioneer Football League GOTW: 8-0 Dayton plays at 5-3 Morehead St, 4-1 in conference. Expect 9-0, by more than a TD.

Blowout: Jacksonville hosts Davidson. Enough said. (No? Ok. “Pre-season favorite Jacksonville at home against the #253 ranked team in the 23 league, 253-team Division 1 NCAA football leagues.” 30+ margin.)

Of interest? Always curious to see Davidson’s “competitors” for the bottom of the pit: Valparaiso @ Butler and Stetson @ Marist; expecting 14+ point defeats for each.

Ivy League GOTW is still last week’s Dartmouth @ Harvard thriller! Dartmouth led 13-0, having taken every punch Big Red could throw for 3 ½ quarters and stopping them every time! Finally, Harvard scored with six minutes to go, and again inside the last minute on 4^th and 12 from 37 yards out to win by a point. Both teams deserved every accolade they got.

Blowouts: So this week, we get Cornell @ Dartmouth (Green by 35 or more) and Harvard @ Columbia (traditionally this would be 70-0, but Columbia’s actually getting better this year! How about 21-34 points for a margin this time? How about “less than Dartmouth/Cornell” as a bet?)

Of Interest? The other two games should be closer – Brown @ Yale (Elis by 3-10) and Princeton @ Penn (we flipped a coin, and it came down Penn…)

Patriot League GOTW: Again, last week’s Colgate 31, Fordham 29 game of the year! The Rams scored the last three touchdowns, all in the fourth quarter, only to have their two point conversion attempt from the one fail with no time left on the clock! There goes the perfect season, there goes controlling their destiny for the conference title…and there goes Bucknell’s chances this weekend at Fordham -  Rams by 14+.

Blowout: Colgate @ Lafayette by 14+ as well.

Of interest: That Holy Cross @ Lehigh game could be very good Saturday! Our numbers like Lehigh, most others like HC, and let’s find out who’s right!

SWAC GOTW: Sounds like a military acronym, doesn’t it? Nothing spectacular stands out in this low-level league, but Alabama St @ Jackson St should be the closest of the five.

Blowout:  The worst should be Texas Southern @ Grambling St – by three TDs, at least.

Of interest, would be everything else, I guess: Prairie View A&M over Alcorn St by at least 13; Southern over Arkansas-Pine Bluff by at least 14; and Alabama A&M at home over Mississippi Valley St by at least 20.

MEAC GOTW: This one’s good – North Carolina A&T @ South Carolina St by a field goal or more to stay unbeaten in conference and knock SCS from the list of challengers.

Blowouts: Stony Brook (of the Colonial) hosts Howard and wins big Saturday.

Of interest: Well, winners should include Hampton (over FLA A&M), Bethune-Cookman (over Morgan St), and NC Central (over Delaware St). But as always, we’ll be paying close attention to our beloved Savannah State, playing and losing at Norfolk St by about 17-31 this weekend.

ON TO THE NFL!

We here at Following Football are on a roll when it comes to picking favorites to win and cover. And again this week, we’re vastly overconfident about our win and cover picks, and meekly concerned about our choices of the underdog. So…see what you think:

Cincinnati by more than 10.5 over Cleveland tonight.

Green Bay by more than 2.5 over Carolina.

Jets by more than 7 over the Jaguars.

Buffalo by more than 3 over Miami.

Steelers by more than 4.5 over the Raiders.

Vikings by more than 2.5 over the Rams.

      (And it will be the first of the morning set of games to finish!)

New Orleans by more than 8 over Tennessee.

New England by more than 14 over Washington. (And keep betting NE until they lose.)

Denver by more than 3 over Indianapolis. MUCH more. Who’s idea IS this line, anyway?

And, now, we’re taking three home underdogs. Without confidence…

Sad Francisco covers 6 against Atlanta…Half-buck-an-ears cover 2.5 against the Giants…and Dallas somehow defeats Philadelphia, who’s favored by 2.

But on Monday night, we’re HAPPY again…

Chargers by more than 3.5 over Da Bears!

Finally in the CFL!...

It’s Week 20 of the twenty-week regular season up north, and the four games on the schedule have the gamut of meaning imbued in them. From least to most important, here we go!...

Saskatchewan @ Montreal – neither team is even making the playoffs; two of just three clubs left out in November. So, it’s mostly to make next season’s roster for the players. But I see the Rough Riders as having more pride to play for, to get a third win on the record, while Montreal’s still bummed from losing out just last Sunday. Saskatchewan 21, Montreal 20.

Winnipeg @ Toronto – Winnipeg’s the third club out; Toronto’s locked into the third spot in the east, travelling to a destination TBA for a game Saturday. They’re not going to risk any players and won’t want anyone overly exhausted, either – Winnipeg 20, Toronto 16.

Calgary @ British Columbia – A strange game in that they’re going to play AGAIN next weekend in the first round of the Western division playoffs (the winner to go to Edmonton, who’ll have rested for 21 days by then! THAT will be interesting!). Neither team will show the other one ANYTHING, and it’ll be the Vancouver fan base, seeing its Lions for the last time this season, who will want to will them over the line. BC Lions 14, Calgary 9.

Hamilton @ Ottawa – THIS is the biggie, the second of a two-game, aggregate point playoff for the division title in the East. (See this really cool article – that used to be a regular thing in the CFL! This just happened by happenstance.) Ottawa won by six last week in Hamilton, and while everyone seems to think that with a third string QB, the Ti-Cats have no chance… We’re betting our money on the team that’s been there before. Hamilton 20, Ottawa 13.

Following up on prophecies from last week...

If we're to be legit about predicting games, we've got to follow up on our predictions each week, so you have some idea what return you're getting on your investment, right? So, here we go!

Rugby) Nailed it. New Zealand 34-17 over Australia.

NFL) An awkward weekend! Got four right (picking the Pats, Chiefs, Vikes, and Cards to win and cover); had one push (Ravens by three over SD) and three more where we picked the right winner but they barely missed the cover (Seattle by ONE, Houston by THREE instead of four, and Saints by THREE instead of 3 1/2! Aaagh!). Missed the winners entirely on victories by Tampa, the Raiders, Cincy and Denver (Manning be Manning again!); and missed that SF wouldn't cover against the Rams. So with the winners we went 9-4; ATS, though, we were 4-8-1, with one to go tonight. (Carolina covers seven against Indy.)

CFL) Two-and-two: we got the two dominant teams in the west, Calgary and Edmonton, winning their games handily. But we missed the other two - the BC Lions clinched a playoff spot by upsetting Toronto (guaranteeing them third place in the East), and sophomore franchise Ottawa moved within one step of a division title by beating Hamilton 12-6 in Hamilton! All they have to do now is play them again at home Saturday and either win or lose by fewer than six points. Good luck, RedBlacks!

NCAA) By sections...

BIG GAMES in the FBS - we went 4-1! Missed UNC beating Pitt 26-19, but nailed wins by Florida and LaTech, and knew Stanford and Notre Dame would win close battles with Wazzu and Temple, respectively.

BIG GAMES in the FCS - 3-3 here, but we're good with it. Our winners: Dayton 31-14 over Jacksonville; J-ville State routing Eastern Kentucky; and William & Mary over JMU. Our losers weren't embarrasing - Charleston Southern edged out Coastal Carolina, handing the defending conference champs their first loss; Fordham lost 31-29 to Colgate in an incredible game; and an even more amazing game saw Harvard beat Dartmouth as predicted, but only by one point (not 10+ as called). Big Green held the champs scoreless until six minutes to go in the game, stopping Harvard on interceptions, fumbles, and so forth every time they made it into hostile territory. But they scored a TD with six to go, failed on the next drive, and then went down and scored on fourth down to win the game 14-13. Great teams find ways to win.

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FBS - Four right, five wrong, one push, and one push-ish (Auburn lost by 8 on a seven point spread). Proud of the way Minnesota reacted Saturday night, and deserved to beat Michigan. Took three OTs for Oregon to prove our Sun Devil forecast wrong!

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FCS - Seven right, three winners but we missed the margin badly (Illinois St, Eastern Washington, and Marist weren't close to what we called), and five we had the wrong victors - congrats to Alabama A&M, Alcorn St, Penn, Furman, and first-year ballers Kennesaw St, who went to 6-2 with an upset of Monmouth Saturday! Are they actually a threat to Coastal and Charleston Southern? We'll find out soon enough!

All other games... - 14-8 in the FBS predictions against the spread; 32-7 picking winners in the FCS.

All in all, not bad...

Prophecies, part one...

Just for convenience of publishing, here are the predictions for the professionals first...college football will come out later in the day:

Here are our predictions for All Hallow’s Eve weekend of football!

RUGBY) We think the New Zealand All-Blacks will continue their dominance and rout Australia by more than a try (five points). The finals are on NBC this Saturday – check your listings; we don’t remember what time. (And if you’ve never seen the Haka, tune in early just for that!)

NFL) For some reason, we think it’s a boring weekend in the National!....Football!...LEAGUE! Out of the fourteen games on the slate for week eight, we see twelve of them as the favorite beating the spread:

New England (-8) over the Jets; Kansas City (-4.5) over the Lions; Atlanta (-7.5) over Tampa; Baltimore (-3) over the Chargers; Minnesota (-1) over Da Bears; Arizona (-5) over the Browns; Houston (-4) over the Titans [this one makes us uncomfortable, though, because of both teams’ QB situations]; New Orleans (-3.5) over the Giants [this one also took a long time…]; the New York Jets (-2) over the Raiders; Seattle (-6) over the QB-less (and rudderless) Cowboys; Green Bay (-3) over Denver [wanted to take Denver, and all our metrics say to…but Aaron Rogers, man…]; and Carolina (-7) over the listing Colts.

The only two underdogs we’re going with this weekend are San Francisco (+8.5) against the Rams [it’s just too high a spread], and we like Pittsburgh (+1.5) to beat Cincinnati outright at home this weekend, as much as we like the Bengals. Call it the 6-0 jinx – we don’t see any of the others losing (except Denver or Green Bay to each other, which is required), and it’s hard to see four 7-0 teams moving forward. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones has a functional offense, and the Bengals have a down game coming…

CFL) Two weeks left! Playoff spots and positions are on the line! Here are the standings as we speak…

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2015						Week 18			FF Elo-style
Western Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	Avg PF	Avg PA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Edmonton	13	4	1.53	426	319	25.1	18.8	107	36.4	2
Calgary	12	4	1.50	408	320	25.5	20.0	88	38.4	1 (-2)
BC Lions	6	10	0.75	403	433	25.2	27.1	-30	32.7	4 (-1)
Winnipeg	5	12	0.59	342	481	20.1	28.3	-139	23.6	8
Saskatchewan	2	14	0.25	381	497	23.8	31.1	-116	23.1	9
Eastern Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	APF	APA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Hamilton	10	6	1.25	496	335	31.0	20.9	161	35.0	3 (+2)
Ottawa	10	6	1.25	408	420	25.5	26.3	-12	27.4	6
Toronto	9	7	1.13	392	461	24.5	28.8	-69	24.3	7 (+3)
Montreal	6	10	0.75	342	332	21.4	20.8	10	29.9	5 (-2)

Hamilton and Ottawa happen to have their two remaining games with each other on back to back weeks, starting this Sunday in Hamilton and concluding in Ottawa on Saturday the 7^th. Meanwhile, Toronto gets two home games to end the year, against BC this Friday and Winnipeg next Friday, but to place first they have to depend on Ottawa and Hamilton tying both of their games! (The CFL computers give them a one-in-ten-thousand chance. Not sure how they figure it.) For the Ti-Cats and RedBlacks, it comes down to the head-to-head; Hamilton owns the tie breaker in a three-way tie; if Toronto falls by the wayside, it becomes a soccer playoff scoring – point differential in two games.

Meanwhile, Edmonton plays its last game of the season on Sunday, and if they win against 6-10 Montreal, they clinch the division. If they lose, Calgary’s got to win both this Saturday at home against poor Saskatchewan, and next Saturday in Vancouver.

There are three playoff spots in each division – the first place gets a bye, which is all-important, and hosts the winner of the third-at-second place game the week before. So, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Toronto are in for the East, while in the West it’ll be Edmonton, Calgary, and either BC or Montreal, who would get in using what they call the “crossover” rule – if a fourth place team is better than the other third place team, they steal that playoff spot! MY FAVORITE PLAYOFF RULE! Last year, it worked the other way: BC stole a spot in the East. So why not root for Montreal to steal the West spot this time? Basically, though, BC owns the tiebreaker, so Montreal must win more of their two remaining games (@ Edmonton and home v Saskatchewan) than British Columbia does (@ Toronto and v Calgary). Very possible. It’s also conceivable that Winnipeg steals the spot, but they’d have to win at Toronto next Friday and have Montreal and BC lose both games. Good luck, Blue Bombers.

Our Picks This Week) Toronto over BC, 28-20…Calgary routs the RoughRiders, 41-19… Hamilton edges Ottawa at home, 33-27…Edmonton clinches by beating Montreal, 31-13.