Prophecies for the second week of November - professional division!

Yesterday, we posted the Following Football ACNC predictions for the college games of the week (since the MAC starts on Tuesday for a few weeks, giving us something like 26 days of non-stop football! WHOOPEE!). Today, let's dive into the pros on our normal Wednesday edition of Prophecies In Phootball!

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE - Playoff edition!

Here's the playoff grid for the CFL, having just played twenty-two weeks to eliminate three teams...

EASTERN division)   BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders Saturday. The odds favor Calgary by, and we like them by even more: a 7-11 team travels to a 14-4 defending champion? Take Calgary plus the points.

Next Saturday, the winner goes to Edmonton to play the division champion Eskimos.

WESTERN division)   Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton TigerCats Saturday. Again, the home team is favored by, and even so we're going to take Hamilton plus the points. The TiCats were the best team in the league for most of the season, and really didn't fade as much as have quarterback injury issues, while Ottawa nipped them at the wire in that spectacular home-and-home series the last two weeks. The Argos get their starting QB back, but we like the experience of Hamilton.

Next Saturday, the winner of this game goes to Ottawa to play the second-year RedBlacks for the division title!

Then, on November 29th, the 103rd Grey Cup will match the division champions for the title!


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE - week ten

Here's our grid for the week - DEN+ means we like Denver to win by MORE than the point spread, and MIN- means that we like Minnesota to do better than losing by the point spread (either lose by less or win outright):

Week 10		(Nov 12-16)
Home		Away		Vegas Line	FF Ratings	My Pick
Jets		Bills		NJ -3	E/D -1	BUF -
Ravens		Jaguars		B -5.5	E/G -7	BAL +
Packers		Lions		GB -11.5	B/H -15	GB +
Eagles		Dolphins		PH -6.5	D/F -7	PHI +
Steelers		Browns		PT -4.5	C/H -13	PIT +
Rams		Bears		SL -8.5	C/F -9	CHI -
Buccaneers		Cowboys		TB -1.5	G/F -1	TB +
Titans		Panthers		CA -4.5	A/G -15	CAR +
Redskins		Saints		NO -1.5	F/F +3	WAS -
Raiders		Vikings		OAK -3	D/C+ 0	MIN -
Broncos		Chiefs		DN -6.5	B/C- -6	DEN +
Giants		Patriots		NE -7	E-/A -6	NE +
Seahawks		Cardinals		SE -3	B/B -3	no pick
Bengals		Texans		CN -10.5	A/G- -16	CIN +

And because we hadn't had a chance to publish them yet, here are the current tiers and rankings:

Tier A) 1. New England. 2. Cincinnati. 3. Carolina.

Tier B) 4. Denver. 5. Green Bay. 6. Arizona. 7. Seattle.

Tier C) 8. Minnesota. 9. St. Louis. 10. Pittsburgh. 11. Kansas City.

Tier D) 12. Atlanta. 13. Buffalo. 14. Philadelphia. 15. Oakland.

Tier E) 16. New York Jets. 17. Baltimore. 18. New York Giants.

Tier F) 19. New Orleans. 20. Washington. 21. Dallas. 22. Chicago. 23. San Diego. 24. Miami.

Tier G) 25. San Francisco. 26. Tampa Bay. 27. Indianapolis. 28. Tennessee. 29. Jacksonville. 30. Houston.

Tier H) 31. Cleveland. 32. Detroit. 

Prophecies, part one...

Just for convenience of publishing, here are the predictions for the professionals first...college football will come out later in the day:

Here are our predictions for All Hallow’s Eve weekend of football!

RUGBY) We think the New Zealand All-Blacks will continue their dominance and rout Australia by more than a try (five points). The finals are on NBC this Saturday – check your listings; we don’t remember what time. (And if you’ve never seen the Haka, tune in early just for that!)

NFL) For some reason, we think it’s a boring weekend in the National!....Football!...LEAGUE! Out of the fourteen games on the slate for week eight, we see twelve of them as the favorite beating the spread:

New England (-8) over the Jets; Kansas City (-4.5) over the Lions; Atlanta (-7.5) over Tampa; Baltimore (-3) over the Chargers; Minnesota (-1) over Da Bears; Arizona (-5) over the Browns; Houston (-4) over the Titans [this one makes us uncomfortable, though, because of both teams’ QB situations]; New Orleans (-3.5) over the Giants [this one also took a long time…]; the New York Jets (-2) over the Raiders; Seattle (-6) over the QB-less (and rudderless) Cowboys; Green Bay (-3) over Denver [wanted to take Denver, and all our metrics say to…but Aaron Rogers, man…]; and Carolina (-7) over the listing Colts.

The only two underdogs we’re going with this weekend are San Francisco (+8.5) against the Rams [it’s just too high a spread], and we like Pittsburgh (+1.5) to beat Cincinnati outright at home this weekend, as much as we like the Bengals. Call it the 6-0 jinx – we don’t see any of the others losing (except Denver or Green Bay to each other, which is required), and it’s hard to see four 7-0 teams moving forward. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones has a functional offense, and the Bengals have a down game coming…

CFL) Two weeks left! Playoff spots and positions are on the line! Here are the standings as we speak…

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2015						Week 18			FF Elo-style
Western Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	Avg PF	Avg PA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Edmonton	13	4	1.53	426	319	25.1	18.8	107	36.4	2
Calgary	12	4	1.50	408	320	25.5	20.0	88	38.4	1 (-2)
BC Lions	6	10	0.75	403	433	25.2	27.1	-30	32.7	4 (-1)
Winnipeg	5	12	0.59	342	481	20.1	28.3	-139	23.6	8
Saskatchewan	2	14	0.25	381	497	23.8	31.1	-116	23.1	9
Eastern Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	APF	APA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Hamilton	10	6	1.25	496	335	31.0	20.9	161	35.0	3 (+2)
Ottawa	10	6	1.25	408	420	25.5	26.3	-12	27.4	6
Toronto	9	7	1.13	392	461	24.5	28.8	-69	24.3	7 (+3)
Montreal	6	10	0.75	342	332	21.4	20.8	10	29.9	5 (-2)

Hamilton and Ottawa happen to have their two remaining games with each other on back to back weeks, starting this Sunday in Hamilton and concluding in Ottawa on Saturday the 7^th. Meanwhile, Toronto gets two home games to end the year, against BC this Friday and Winnipeg next Friday, but to place first they have to depend on Ottawa and Hamilton tying both of their games! (The CFL computers give them a one-in-ten-thousand chance. Not sure how they figure it.) For the Ti-Cats and RedBlacks, it comes down to the head-to-head; Hamilton owns the tie breaker in a three-way tie; if Toronto falls by the wayside, it becomes a soccer playoff scoring – point differential in two games.

Meanwhile, Edmonton plays its last game of the season on Sunday, and if they win against 6-10 Montreal, they clinch the division. If they lose, Calgary’s got to win both this Saturday at home against poor Saskatchewan, and next Saturday in Vancouver.

There are three playoff spots in each division – the first place gets a bye, which is all-important, and hosts the winner of the third-at-second place game the week before. So, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Toronto are in for the East, while in the West it’ll be Edmonton, Calgary, and either BC or Montreal, who would get in using what they call the “crossover” rule – if a fourth place team is better than the other third place team, they steal that playoff spot! MY FAVORITE PLAYOFF RULE! Last year, it worked the other way: BC stole a spot in the East. So why not root for Montreal to steal the West spot this time? Basically, though, BC owns the tiebreaker, so Montreal must win more of their two remaining games (@ Edmonton and home v Saskatchewan) than British Columbia does (@ Toronto and v Calgary). Very possible. It’s also conceivable that Winnipeg steals the spot, but they’d have to win at Toronto next Friday and have Montreal and BC lose both games. Good luck, Blue Bombers.

Our Picks This Week) Toronto over BC, 28-20…Calgary routs the RoughRiders, 41-19… Hamilton edges Ottawa at home, 33-27…Edmonton clinches by beating Montreal, 31-13.

Prophecies In Phootball for the second week in October!

Here are our projections, our predictions, our prognostications, our

Prophesies In Phootball

…for the second week of October, 2015!

In the Canadian Football League this week, there was a game on Tuesday to make the schedule (and specifically the byes in the nine-team league!) work out. Officially, Toronto had a bye last week and two games this week, but the first game this week was on Tuesday (they beat Ottawa 38-35, who themselves played twice in five days!) and the second will be on Monday the 12^th. Strange… Of course, they did this to themselves by adding a single team last year, returning their capital city Ottawa to the fold after twenty years without a team, instead of a pair that could keep a balanced schedule in play. (The AFL did that temporarily four years ago, allowing Gold Coast to start play in 2011 when Greater Western Sydney wouldn’t be starting play until the following year.) In hockey, basketball, and any other sport with more erratic scheduling (not once a week like clockwork), odd team scheduling really isn’t an issue, although generally they also strive for even numbers just for fair divisions and such. But…well, maybe in Canadian counting, nine is an even number…

So, our predictions: Hamilton over Saskatchewan (34-20)…Calgary holds off Edmonton (holding our breath on this one – 30-27)…BC to defeat Winnipeg (in Vancouver, not a stretch: 20-14)…and Montreal catches Toronto on six days rest (28-27, despite the Argos being favored otherwise).

(We’re still floating around the 80^th percentile in the CFL prediction contest, holding to our 35-25 record.)

Regarding the National Football League (“National” meaning “United States”, the most self-centered nation on earth. We invented the selfie, you know…), we have byes not because we have to…we have byes because we want to. That is, we want to stretch the season out longer to get more television money in the hands of the league and its teams. That’s why the Dolphins and Jets played a game in London Sunday morning – so Miami would have plenty of time to fire their coach before their next game.

So, our predictions: Houston (+0.5) upsets Indianapolis Thursday night…on Sunday, Atlanta (-8) covers against Washington…Cincinnati (-3) covers against Seattle…Green Bay (-9.5) covers against the Rams…Philadelphia (-4.5) covers against New Orleans…and Buffalo (-2.5) covers at Tennessee. On the flip side of that coin, Cleveland (+6.5) beats the spread against the Ravens…Chicago (+9.5) stays close to the Chiefs…and Jacksonville (+2.5) at least covers against Tampa. In the late games Sunday, Arizona (-3), New England (-9.5), Denver (-5.5), and the Giants (-7) all win by more than those spreads against Detroit, Dallas, Oakland, and San Francisco, respectively. Finally, on Monday night, Pittsburgh (+3) upsets San Diego.

(In our ESPN NFL pool, we’re in the 82^nd percentile on picking winners, and the 98^th against the spread.)

Finally, here’s our huge bundle of college football picks for the weekend! – Here are the FBS teams that we think will win by more than the Vegas betting spread…

Boston College (-7.5) over Wake Forest…Clemson (-7) over Georgia Tech…Florida St (-9.5) over Miami-FL…NC State (-0.5) over Virginia Tech Friday…Duke (-12) over Army…Pitt (-10.5) over Virginia…Michigan St (-14.5) over Rutgers…Iowa (-11) over Illinois…Minnesota (-3) over Purdue…Baylor (-44) over Kansas (yes, even with that spread!)…Texas Tech (-12.5) over Iowa St…Oklahoma (-17) over Texas…West Virginia (-7) over OK St…BYU (-7.5) over East Carolina…Utah (-7) over Cal (as much as we wanted to bet on a Ute letdown, seven points is too low)…Oregon (-17) over Washington St (would’ve taken double that – the Ducks’ll be MAD!)…Arizona (-8.5) over Oregon St… USC (-17) over Washington Thursday…Georgia (-3) over Tennessee…LSU (-13) over poor ol’ HBC and South Carolina…Alabama (-21) over Arkansas, now that they’ve got their mojo working now…Mississippi St (-33) over Troy…Temple (-16) over Tulane…Houston (-25.5) over SMU Thursday…Marshall (-5) over Southern Miss Friday…Western KY (-8.5) over MTSU…Louisiana Tech (-17) over UTSA…Akron (-7.5) over Eastern Michigan…Toledo (-15) over Kent State…Ohio (-15.5) over Miami-OH…Bowling Green (-13) over U Mass…Northern Illinois (-10.5) over Ball State…Air Force (-24) over Wyoming…Boise St (-16) over Colorado St…Nevada (-5) over New Mexico…Utah St (-12) over Fresno St…Appalachian St (-16) over Georgia St… and UL-Lafayette (-3.5) over Texas State.

And here are the FBS underdogs who we believe will at least beat the spread and (in some cases) win outright:

Syracuse (+3) will upset South Florida…Indiana (+8) against Penn State…Maryland (+33.5) against Ohio State…Northwestern (+7.5) against Michigan…Wisconsin (+1.5) will upset Nebraska… Kansas State (+9.5) against TCU…Navy (+14) against Notre Dame…Missouri (+5.5) against Florida…New Mexico State (+43) against Ole Miss… U Conn (+2.5) will upset UCF…UL-Monroe (-9.5) against Tulsa…Rice (+4) will upset Florida Atlantic…UTEP (-14.5) against Florida International…Central Michigan (+7.5) against Western Michigan…San Diego St (+1.5) will upset Hawai’i…and UNLV (+2.5) against San Jose St.

Finally, here are the predicted results for the FCS games coming up this weekend:

Missouri Valley Conference: Youngstown St by 3 over Indiana St; South Dakota St by 10 over Indiana St; Southern Illinois by 21 over Missouri St; North Dakota St by 7 over Northern Iowa; Western Illinois by 7 over South Dakota.

Big Sky Conference: Eastern Washington by 7 over Cal Poly; North Dakota by 8 over Idaho St; Montana by 21 over Weber St; Montana St by 20 over Sacramento St; Northern Arizona by 11 over UC Davis; and Portland St by three over FBS North Texas.

Colonial AA: Albany by 6 over Maine; Delaware by 16 over Rhode Island; Elon by 1 over Richmond; James Madison over Towson; William & Mary by 2 over Villanova. Some close games expected in the Colonial, as always!

Southland: Lamar over Abilene by 14; Central Arkansas by 24 over Houston Baptist; Sam Houston St by 30 over Incarnate Word; McNeese St by 4 over SE Louisiana; Stephen F Austin by 20 over Nicholls St.

 

Big South: Charleston Southern by 13 over Monmouth; Coastal Carolina by 31 over Presbyterian; and Liberty by 19 over Gardner-Webb. Not expecting any upsets this weekend…

Southern Conference: Chattanooga by 14 over Furman; Western Carolina by 3 over Mercer; Samford by 14 over VMI; Wofford by 3 over The Citadel.

North East Conference: Bryant by 14 over CCSU; Sacred Heart by 2 over Robert Morris; and Wagner (out of conference) over Columbia by 3.

Ohio Valley Conference: Murray St by 13 over Austin Peay; Eastern Illinois by 4 over SE Missouri St; Eastern Kentucky by 17 over Tennessee Tech; and UT-Martin by 7 over Tennessee St.

Pioneer Football League: Morehead St by 1 over Butler; Campbell by 3 over Marist; Dayton by San Diego; Drake by 14 over Valparaiso; and Jacksonville by 30 over Stetson. (This may not be a very strong conference, but it’s competitive!)

In the “Intramural” conferences (Ivy and Patriot Leagues):

Holy Cross by 3 over Brown; Harvard by 31 over Cornell; Dartmouth in overtime over Yale; Fordham by 13 over Penn; Princeton by 6 over Colgate; Bucknell by 5 over Lehigh; Lafayette by 2 over Georgetown; and as mentioned before, Wagner over Columbia by 3.

In the “HBC” conferences (SWAC and MEAC):

Bethune-Cookman by 3 over South Carolina St; Hampton by 10 over Delaware St; NC Central by 14 over Florida A&M; Morgan St by 17 over Savannah St; NC A&T by 7 over Norfolk St; Southern by 6 over Alabama St; Grambling St by 15 over Alabama A&M; and Prairie View A&M by 12 over Mississippi Valley St. 

(And in our ESPN College Pigskin Pick’m pool, we’re down around 72% - still in the top 30%! - after a poor week last week, as we admitted on Monday.)