>>> What's the over/under on Johnny Manziel? I mean, in terms of him completely falling off the cliff of sanity, dying, whatever.
>>> So, were the Rams and Eagles really the teams most in need of QBs? Denver made a good pick in Paxton Lynch - he'll play well right away. Whether Dallas' pick of OSU's Ezekiel Elliot at the #4 slot pays off or not, it's definitely a Jerry Jones pick! But at least it's not a Greg Hardy reach...
>>> Who's "rebuilding", and who's making their push for 2016? You let us know what you think!
>>> What Tennessee and Tampa are trying to do to protect their young prodigy quarterbacks is promising on both fronts. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen...
>>> Baltimore claims they pulled the plug on drafting Jeremiah Tunsil because of the "supposedly hacked" social media post with a bong. Right or wrong move?
Showing posts with label Broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Broncos. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Why?
If you're Johnny Manziel, and you're trying to get a job in the NFL, and the word on the street is you can't get your head out of your tail long enough to actually work at your job, why are you hanging out with someone like Josh Gordon, who just got picked up AGAIN for drugs and cannot ever APPEAL for reinstatement into the league for the rest of the year?
And why, if you're Von Miller, do you even consider letting Manziel room with you at this point?
And why do I care at this point? Is it the car crash theory - like Lindsay Lohan or Kim Kardashian or Mike Tyson, you just can't look away at some point of ludicrosity (a word I just made up)? When he gets a JOB, then I can justify it...
And why, if you're Von Miller, do you even consider letting Manziel room with you at this point?
And why do I care at this point? Is it the car crash theory - like Lindsay Lohan or Kim Kardashian or Mike Tyson, you just can't look away at some point of ludicrosity (a word I just made up)? When he gets a JOB, then I can justify it...
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
NFL Free Agency update
I actually posted this on our Facebook page quite a few days ago, and never brought it back to the house, so to speak... Here's a great piece on the current state of the NFL free agency madness, with some definitive winners (like the Raiders and Buccaneers) and losers (look'n at you, SF and Cleveland...). Denver's still up in the air - if they still have the time to get a qualified quarterback, they'll be fine. If...
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, the first week of November!
As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
Monday, November 2, 2015
Our first rankings - pro and FCS version!
In keeping with the College Football Playoff committee's first rankings coming out tomorrow evening, we also wait until now to actually rank our (American) football teams - until there's a truly legitimate body of work to evaluate with. Yesterday, we posted the FBS list (check the previous post out), and now here's the NFL and FCS (Division 1-AA) rosters, still utilizing tiers as we have all year (that's how we determine point spreads), but also including rankings for the top thirty or so and the bottom sixteen...
In the NFL, following the Broncos' upset of the Packers last night, there's a definitive #1...
Tier A) 1. New England Patriots (7-0) - 2. Cincinnati Bengals (7-0) - 3. Carolina Panthers (6-0) - 4. Denver Broncos (7-0).
Tier B) 5. Green Bay Packers (6-1) - 6. Arizona Cardinals (5-2) - 7. Seattle Seahawks (4-3).
Tier C) 8. St. Louis Rams (4-3) - 9. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) - 10. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) - 11. Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) - 12. Atlanta Falcons (6-2).
Tier D) 13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) - 14. Buffalo Bills (3-4) - 15. Oakland Raiders (4-3).
Tier E) 16. New York Jets (4-3) - 17. Baltimore Ravens (2-6) - 18. San Diego Chargers (2-6) - 19. New Orleans Saints (4-4).
Tier F) 20. Washington Redskins (3-4) - 21. New York Giants (4-4) - 22. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - 23. Dallas Cowboys (2-5) - 24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4).
Tier G) 25. Chicago Bears (2-5) - 26. San Francisco 49ers (2-6) - 27. Houston Texans (3-5) - 28. Cleveland Browns (2-6) - 29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).
Tier H) 30. Indianapolis Colts (3-4) - 31. Detroit Lions (1-7) - 32. Tennessee Titans (1-6).
And in the FCS, there's just one team in the top tier - the one who took the Auburn Tigers to overtime on the road... (Note that we've combined all 1-AA conferences into this one ranking for a change. We'll single out the others afterwards.) Remember that all these tiers match with the FBS tiers, so in theory a team in Tier L here is equal to a Tier L team on the FBS list, and vice versa. We've ranked the top 28 and the bottom 16; the rest are in random order within their tiers as usual:
Tier L) 1. Jacksonville St (5-0 ovc, 7-1 overall).
Tier M) 2. Illinois St (5-0 mvc, 7-1) - 3. North Dakota St (4-1 mvc, 6-2).
Tier N) 4. Southern Utah (5-0 big sky, 6-2) - 5. Portland St (4-1 bgsky, 7-1) - 6. South Dakota St (3-2 mvc, 6-2).
Tier O) 7. Chattanooga (5-0 sthn, 7-1) - 8. Youngstown St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 9. McNeese St (7-0 sthld, 8-0) - 10. Harvard (4-0 ivy, 7-0) - 11. Sam Houston St (5-1 sthld, 6-2) - 12. William & Mary (4-1 caa, 6-2) - 13. James Madison (4-2 caa, 7-2) - 14. Northern Iowa (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 15. Coastal Carolina (2-1 bgsth, 7-1) - 16. Western Illinois (3-2 mvc, 4-4).
Tier P) 17. Indiana St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 18. The Citadel (5-0 sthrn, 6-2) - 19. Southern Illinois (2-3 mvc, 3-5) - 20. Eastern Kentucky (4-1 ovc, 5-3).
Tier Q) 21. Charleston Southern (4-0 bgsth, 7-1) - 22. Dartmouth (3-1 ivy, 6-1) - 23. Eastern Washington (5-0 bgsky, 6-2) - 24. Eastern Illinois (5-0 ovc, 5-3).
Tier R) 25. Richmond (5-0 caa, 7-1) - 26. Montana (3-2 bgsky, 4-4) - 27. Montana St (2-3 bgsky, 4-4) - 28. Cal Poly SLO (1-4 bgsky, 2-6).
Tier S) Northern Arizona (3-2 bgsky, 5-3); Towson (3-2 caa, 5-3); UT-Martin (4-1 ovc, 5-3); Central Arkansas (5-1 sthld, 6-2); North Carolina A&T (5-0 meac, 7-1); Alcorn St (4-1 swac, 5-2); Fordham (3-1 patr, 7-2); Furman (2-2 sthrn, 4-4).
Tier T) Bethune-Cookman (5-1 meac, 7-2); North Dakota (3.3 bgsky, 5-4); Liberty (1-2 bgsth, 4-4); Villanova (3-2 caa, 4-4); New Hampshire (2-3 caa, 4-4); SE Louisiana (3-3 sthld, 4-4), South Carolina St (4-1 meac, 5-3).
Tier U) Dayton (5-0 pfl, 8-0); Weber St (3-3 bgsky, 4-5); SE Missouri St (2-2 ovc, 3-5); Tennessee St (0-4 ovc, 4-4); Lamar (3-3 sthld, 4-4); Grambling St (6-0 swac, 6-2).
Tier V) Samford (1-4 sthrn, 3-5); Jacksonville (3-2 pfl, 6-2); Penn (3-1 ivy, 4-3); Princeton (2-2 ivy, 5-2); Western Carolina (3-2 sthrn, 5-3).
Tier W) Wofford (2-3 sthrn, 4-5); Stephen F Austin (3-3 sthld, 3-5); Colgate (3-0 patr, 4-4); Elon (2-3 caa, 3-5); Delaware (2-3 caa, 3-5); Stony Brook (1-5 caa, 2-5); Bryant (2-1 nec, 4-4), San Diego (4-1 pfl, 6-2); Yale (1-3 ivy, 4-3).
Tier X) Idaho St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Maine (3-2 caa, 3-5); Mercer (0-4 sthrn, 3-5); NW State (2-4 sthld, 2-6); Abilene Christian (2-5 sthld, 2-6); Lehigh (2-1 patr, 4-4); Holy Cross (1-2 patr, 4-4); Hampton (3-3 meac, 4-5); Prairie View A&M (5-1 swac, 5-2); Southern (4-2 swac, 4-4).
Tier Y) Kennesaw St (2-1 bgsth, 6-2); Northern Colorado (2-4 bgsky, 4-4); Sacramento St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Duquesne (3-1 nec, 6-3); St Francis (2-1 nec, 4-3); Murray St (1-4 ovc, 2-6); Tennessee Tech (1-5 ovc, 2-6); Bucknell (1-2 patr, 4-4); North Carolina Central (4-1 meac, 5-3); Morgan St (3-2 meac, 3-4); Norfolk St (2-3 meac, 2-6), Monmouth (1-3 bgsth, 3-6).
Tier Z) Alabama A&M (2-3 swac, 2-5); Albany (1-4 caa, 2-6); Rhode Island (1-4 caa, 1-7); Sacred Heart (1-2 nec, 4-4); Drake (3-3 pfl, 4-5); Columbia (1-3 ivy, 2-5); Georgetown (2-2 patr, 4-5); Alabama St (4-3 swac, 4-4).
Tier "a" (lowercase) UC Davis (1-4 bgsky, 1-7); Missouri St (0-5 mvc, 1-7); Central Connecticut St (3-1 nec, 4-5); Morehead St (4-1 pfl, 5-3); Marist (3-2 pfl, 4-4), Campbell (3-3 pfl, 5-4); Brown (2-2 ivy, 4-4); Jackson St (3-3 swac, 3-5); Gardner-Webb (2-2 bgsth, 3-5); VMI (1-4 sthrn, 2-7).
Tier "b") Presbyterian (0-3 bgsth, 1-7), Butler (2-3 pfl, 4-4); Howard (1-5 meac, 1-7); Texas Southern (2-4 swac, 3-4); Incarnate Word (3-3 sthld, 4-4)
And, without further ado, the Bottom Sixteen...
Tier "c") 110. Nicholls St (1-5 sthld, 1-7) - 111. Florida A&M (1-4 meac, 1-7) - 112. Austin Peay (0-6 ovc, 0-9).
Tier "d") 113. Lafayette (0-4 patr, 1-8) - 114. Cornell (0-4 ivy, 0-7) - 115. Wagner (0-3 nec, 0-8) - 116. Delaware St (0-5 meac, 0-8).
Tier "e") 117. Robert Morris (1-3 nec, 2-6) - 118. Arkansas Pine Bluff (0-6 swac, 1-7) - 119. Stetson (1-5 pfl, 2-6).
Tier "f") 120. Savannah St (1-4 meac, 1-6) - 121. Houston Baptist (0-6 sthld, 1-7) - 122. East Tennessee St (0-0 sthrn, officially; 1-7 overall) - 123. Mississippi Valley St (0-7 swac, 0-9) - 124. Valparaiso (1-4 pfl, 1-6).
Tier "g") 125. Davidson (0-5 pfl, 1-7).
If you're wondering, when you get towards the bottom, some or most of those out-of-conference wins are against teams in lower divisions - after all, "bottom" is in the eye of the beholder!
Within the Intramural Division, your top three are:
1. Harvard (tier O) - 2. Dartmouth (tier Q) - 3. Fordham (Tier S),
... and your bottom three are:
1. Cornell (tier d) - 2. Lafayette (tier d) - 3. Brown (tier a).
And, within the Historically Black College division, your top three are:
1. North Carolina A&T (tier S) - 2. Alcorn St (tier S) - 3. Bethune Cookman (tier T),
...and your bottom three are:
1. Mississippi Valley St (tier f) - 2. Savannah St (tier f) - 3. Arkansas Pine Bluff (tier e).
In the NFL, following the Broncos' upset of the Packers last night, there's a definitive #1...
Tier A) 1. New England Patriots (7-0) - 2. Cincinnati Bengals (7-0) - 3. Carolina Panthers (6-0) - 4. Denver Broncos (7-0).
Tier B) 5. Green Bay Packers (6-1) - 6. Arizona Cardinals (5-2) - 7. Seattle Seahawks (4-3).
Tier C) 8. St. Louis Rams (4-3) - 9. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) - 10. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) - 11. Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) - 12. Atlanta Falcons (6-2).
Tier D) 13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) - 14. Buffalo Bills (3-4) - 15. Oakland Raiders (4-3).
Tier E) 16. New York Jets (4-3) - 17. Baltimore Ravens (2-6) - 18. San Diego Chargers (2-6) - 19. New Orleans Saints (4-4).
Tier F) 20. Washington Redskins (3-4) - 21. New York Giants (4-4) - 22. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - 23. Dallas Cowboys (2-5) - 24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4).
Tier G) 25. Chicago Bears (2-5) - 26. San Francisco 49ers (2-6) - 27. Houston Texans (3-5) - 28. Cleveland Browns (2-6) - 29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).
Tier H) 30. Indianapolis Colts (3-4) - 31. Detroit Lions (1-7) - 32. Tennessee Titans (1-6).
And in the FCS, there's just one team in the top tier - the one who took the Auburn Tigers to overtime on the road... (Note that we've combined all 1-AA conferences into this one ranking for a change. We'll single out the others afterwards.) Remember that all these tiers match with the FBS tiers, so in theory a team in Tier L here is equal to a Tier L team on the FBS list, and vice versa. We've ranked the top 28 and the bottom 16; the rest are in random order within their tiers as usual:
Tier L) 1. Jacksonville St (5-0 ovc, 7-1 overall).
Tier M) 2. Illinois St (5-0 mvc, 7-1) - 3. North Dakota St (4-1 mvc, 6-2).
Tier N) 4. Southern Utah (5-0 big sky, 6-2) - 5. Portland St (4-1 bgsky, 7-1) - 6. South Dakota St (3-2 mvc, 6-2).
Tier O) 7. Chattanooga (5-0 sthn, 7-1) - 8. Youngstown St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 9. McNeese St (7-0 sthld, 8-0) - 10. Harvard (4-0 ivy, 7-0) - 11. Sam Houston St (5-1 sthld, 6-2) - 12. William & Mary (4-1 caa, 6-2) - 13. James Madison (4-2 caa, 7-2) - 14. Northern Iowa (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 15. Coastal Carolina (2-1 bgsth, 7-1) - 16. Western Illinois (3-2 mvc, 4-4).
Tier P) 17. Indiana St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 18. The Citadel (5-0 sthrn, 6-2) - 19. Southern Illinois (2-3 mvc, 3-5) - 20. Eastern Kentucky (4-1 ovc, 5-3).
Tier Q) 21. Charleston Southern (4-0 bgsth, 7-1) - 22. Dartmouth (3-1 ivy, 6-1) - 23. Eastern Washington (5-0 bgsky, 6-2) - 24. Eastern Illinois (5-0 ovc, 5-3).
Tier R) 25. Richmond (5-0 caa, 7-1) - 26. Montana (3-2 bgsky, 4-4) - 27. Montana St (2-3 bgsky, 4-4) - 28. Cal Poly SLO (1-4 bgsky, 2-6).
Tier S) Northern Arizona (3-2 bgsky, 5-3); Towson (3-2 caa, 5-3); UT-Martin (4-1 ovc, 5-3); Central Arkansas (5-1 sthld, 6-2); North Carolina A&T (5-0 meac, 7-1); Alcorn St (4-1 swac, 5-2); Fordham (3-1 patr, 7-2); Furman (2-2 sthrn, 4-4).
Tier T) Bethune-Cookman (5-1 meac, 7-2); North Dakota (3.3 bgsky, 5-4); Liberty (1-2 bgsth, 4-4); Villanova (3-2 caa, 4-4); New Hampshire (2-3 caa, 4-4); SE Louisiana (3-3 sthld, 4-4), South Carolina St (4-1 meac, 5-3).
Tier U) Dayton (5-0 pfl, 8-0); Weber St (3-3 bgsky, 4-5); SE Missouri St (2-2 ovc, 3-5); Tennessee St (0-4 ovc, 4-4); Lamar (3-3 sthld, 4-4); Grambling St (6-0 swac, 6-2).
Tier V) Samford (1-4 sthrn, 3-5); Jacksonville (3-2 pfl, 6-2); Penn (3-1 ivy, 4-3); Princeton (2-2 ivy, 5-2); Western Carolina (3-2 sthrn, 5-3).
Tier W) Wofford (2-3 sthrn, 4-5); Stephen F Austin (3-3 sthld, 3-5); Colgate (3-0 patr, 4-4); Elon (2-3 caa, 3-5); Delaware (2-3 caa, 3-5); Stony Brook (1-5 caa, 2-5); Bryant (2-1 nec, 4-4), San Diego (4-1 pfl, 6-2); Yale (1-3 ivy, 4-3).
Tier X) Idaho St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Maine (3-2 caa, 3-5); Mercer (0-4 sthrn, 3-5); NW State (2-4 sthld, 2-6); Abilene Christian (2-5 sthld, 2-6); Lehigh (2-1 patr, 4-4); Holy Cross (1-2 patr, 4-4); Hampton (3-3 meac, 4-5); Prairie View A&M (5-1 swac, 5-2); Southern (4-2 swac, 4-4).
Tier Y) Kennesaw St (2-1 bgsth, 6-2); Northern Colorado (2-4 bgsky, 4-4); Sacramento St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Duquesne (3-1 nec, 6-3); St Francis (2-1 nec, 4-3); Murray St (1-4 ovc, 2-6); Tennessee Tech (1-5 ovc, 2-6); Bucknell (1-2 patr, 4-4); North Carolina Central (4-1 meac, 5-3); Morgan St (3-2 meac, 3-4); Norfolk St (2-3 meac, 2-6), Monmouth (1-3 bgsth, 3-6).
Tier Z) Alabama A&M (2-3 swac, 2-5); Albany (1-4 caa, 2-6); Rhode Island (1-4 caa, 1-7); Sacred Heart (1-2 nec, 4-4); Drake (3-3 pfl, 4-5); Columbia (1-3 ivy, 2-5); Georgetown (2-2 patr, 4-5); Alabama St (4-3 swac, 4-4).
Tier "a" (lowercase) UC Davis (1-4 bgsky, 1-7); Missouri St (0-5 mvc, 1-7); Central Connecticut St (3-1 nec, 4-5); Morehead St (4-1 pfl, 5-3); Marist (3-2 pfl, 4-4), Campbell (3-3 pfl, 5-4); Brown (2-2 ivy, 4-4); Jackson St (3-3 swac, 3-5); Gardner-Webb (2-2 bgsth, 3-5); VMI (1-4 sthrn, 2-7).
Tier "b") Presbyterian (0-3 bgsth, 1-7), Butler (2-3 pfl, 4-4); Howard (1-5 meac, 1-7); Texas Southern (2-4 swac, 3-4); Incarnate Word (3-3 sthld, 4-4)
And, without further ado, the Bottom Sixteen...
Tier "c") 110. Nicholls St (1-5 sthld, 1-7) - 111. Florida A&M (1-4 meac, 1-7) - 112. Austin Peay (0-6 ovc, 0-9).
Tier "d") 113. Lafayette (0-4 patr, 1-8) - 114. Cornell (0-4 ivy, 0-7) - 115. Wagner (0-3 nec, 0-8) - 116. Delaware St (0-5 meac, 0-8).
Tier "e") 117. Robert Morris (1-3 nec, 2-6) - 118. Arkansas Pine Bluff (0-6 swac, 1-7) - 119. Stetson (1-5 pfl, 2-6).
Tier "f") 120. Savannah St (1-4 meac, 1-6) - 121. Houston Baptist (0-6 sthld, 1-7) - 122. East Tennessee St (0-0 sthrn, officially; 1-7 overall) - 123. Mississippi Valley St (0-7 swac, 0-9) - 124. Valparaiso (1-4 pfl, 1-6).
Tier "g") 125. Davidson (0-5 pfl, 1-7).
If you're wondering, when you get towards the bottom, some or most of those out-of-conference wins are against teams in lower divisions - after all, "bottom" is in the eye of the beholder!
Within the Intramural Division, your top three are:
1. Harvard (tier O) - 2. Dartmouth (tier Q) - 3. Fordham (Tier S),
... and your bottom three are:
1. Cornell (tier d) - 2. Lafayette (tier d) - 3. Brown (tier a).
And, within the Historically Black College division, your top three are:
1. North Carolina A&T (tier S) - 2. Alcorn St (tier S) - 3. Bethune Cookman (tier T),
...and your bottom three are:
1. Mississippi Valley St (tier f) - 2. Savannah St (tier f) - 3. Arkansas Pine Bluff (tier e).
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for the Last Week of October!
Yes, we've been negligent in our UPS and DOWNS this month, so let's see if we can make it up to you today with a BIG long list!
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!
It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Optimism is such a wonderful thing!
ESPN asked each of its bloggers assigned to each of the 32 teams in the NFL to predict their team's record, independently of the other 31 bloggers.
They did so.
The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.
Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.
That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting?
So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:
NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11.
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)
They did so.
The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.
Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.
That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting?
So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:
NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11.
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Peter King has the answer to Peyton's Problems...
Well, not THE ANSWER as in, "Here's the solution to Everything!" More like, "here's exactly what the problem is, when it started, how it affected him, and therefore what we can expect moving forward from here." He writes about his examination of all 735 Broncos passing plays this season for MMQB on Sports Illustrated's SI.com today.
Puzzled about the "mutual decision to move on" from John Fox for the Denver Broncos after four playoff appearances (one with freak'n Tim Tebow as his quarterback!), one Super Bowl appearance, and two top conference seeds?
Us too.
Bill Barnwell of Grantland spells it out very well today, and it's worth a read. It implies that the orange and blue will look completely different next fall, not just with a new head coach...
Us too.
Bill Barnwell of Grantland spells it out very well today, and it's worth a read. It implies that the orange and blue will look completely different next fall, not just with a new head coach...
Monday, January 12, 2015
Here are our updated tiers following the divisional round of the NFL playoffs January 10-11:
| FF rank | Team | Div | Record | WC rnd | Current |
| A1 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | 13-4 | A1 | A1 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | 13-4 | A2 | A2 |
| A3 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | 13-4 | A3 | A3 |
| A4 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | 13-5 | A5 | A4 |
| B5 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | 13-5 | B6 | B5 |
| B6 | Denver Broncos | A-W | 12-5 | A4 | B6 |
| B7 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | 11-7 | B7 | B7 |
| C08 | Detroit Lions | N-N | 11-6 | B8 | C08 |
| C09 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | 11-6 | C09 | C09 |
| C10 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | 10-6-1 | C10 | C10 |
| C11 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | 8-9-1 | C11 | C11 |
| C12 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | 11-6 | C12 | C12 |
It's interesting to note that the ONLY time the Denver Broncos were not sitting comfortably inside Tier A was the end of their season, when the Colts exposed them as a second-rate club with an aging or injured quarterback (see our most recent post for more on that topic). The Cowboys and Colts both moved up a slot because of that, but otherwise there was no movement this week in that top twelve.
Now, the Indianapolis Colts travel to Foxboro, Massachusetts, to muster some confidence against a team that toyed with them a couple of months ago - New England has to be at least a touchdown favorite in this game, and undoubtedly Seattle will get similar love against Green Bay from the tipsters in Nevada. There's a reason they earned the home field advantage - they should be the favorites, and frankly if they were the two road teams we would still make them the favorites!
We're not going to put a point spread on these games, except to agree that both teams should be at least a seven point favorite to meet in Arizona on the first of February.
How injured WAS he?
Following the decimation of the Denver Bronco's "mystique" yesterday by the upstart Indianapolis Colts, many observers are saying that Peyton Manning should definitely hang it up now before he degrades any farther. Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays of Grantland certainly think so, and it's hard to look at yesterday's game and find a good rebuttal for them.
But now comes this report, from Adam Schefter of ESPN (whose job it is to find things like this out, and he's legendarily good at his job), that Manning was playing with a torn quad muscle, not only yesterday but for the past month.
But now comes this report, from Adam Schefter of ESPN (whose job it is to find things like this out, and he's legendarily good at his job), that Manning was playing with a torn quad muscle, not only yesterday but for the past month.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
Congratulations to Indianapolis and Green Bay!
And to Denver and Dallas, for that matter, because all four teams were deserving today! But the difference today was Aaron Rodgers and his amazing performance on one and a half legs, and the performance of the Colts' defense today, restricting the Broncos passing game to dink and dunk without sacrificing all the run defense at the same time.
As for the ridiculous rule that reversed the critical call on fourth down, where Tony Romo connected on a brilliant throw to the equally brilliant Dez Bryant...only to have the "Calvin Johnson" rule invoked and nullify the catch? Well, first of all, given the way the rule reads and has been enforced, the call was indeed both consistent with precedent and correct to the letter of the law. The explanations given on television by Mike Perrera and others were extremely clear, as was the sentiment provided by several talking heads to the effect that the rule sucks. Of COURSE it sucks. It's insipid on the surface, and it defies common sense.
But what's worse is the same thing that makes the Detroit loss to the Cowboys last week distressing: the ugly nonsensical call will overshadow the great season the teams had. Of course Dallas deserved better, but neither they nor the Packers deserved to lose. Generally, at this stage of the season, NOBODY deserves to lose. It just FELT like they'd accomplished what they were supposed to accomplish on the play and drive. And when you're following the game on Advanced Football Analytics, and the shift in the potential win percentage for Dallas moves from upwards of eighty percent to below twenty...it just didn't seem fair.
As for the ridiculous rule that reversed the critical call on fourth down, where Tony Romo connected on a brilliant throw to the equally brilliant Dez Bryant...only to have the "Calvin Johnson" rule invoked and nullify the catch? Well, first of all, given the way the rule reads and has been enforced, the call was indeed both consistent with precedent and correct to the letter of the law. The explanations given on television by Mike Perrera and others were extremely clear, as was the sentiment provided by several talking heads to the effect that the rule sucks. Of COURSE it sucks. It's insipid on the surface, and it defies common sense.
But what's worse is the same thing that makes the Detroit loss to the Cowboys last week distressing: the ugly nonsensical call will overshadow the great season the teams had. Of course Dallas deserved better, but neither they nor the Packers deserved to lose. Generally, at this stage of the season, NOBODY deserves to lose. It just FELT like they'd accomplished what they were supposed to accomplish on the play and drive. And when you're following the game on Advanced Football Analytics, and the shift in the potential win percentage for Dallas moves from upwards of eighty percent to below twenty...it just didn't seem fair.
Friday, January 9, 2015
Your last look at the NFL Divisional Round games this weekend
The "Elite Eight", the home bye week, the quarterfinals. Whatev, dude... To me, this is the REAL start of the playoffs, growing up in the seventies when each conference only GOT four entrants in the Super Derby (three divisions and one wild card, BTW). The best from each of the NFL's eight divisions stack up Saturday and Sunday, and here's some conjectures as to how the games might go...Remember, as Gregg Easterbrook of TMQ likes to say, All Predictions Wrong Or Your Money Back. (Easterbrook says because the home team with the bye historically wins these games at a MUCH higher rate than normal home field advantage, he ALWAYS recommends taking the home team in this round.)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
This weekend's predictions...
As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...
...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)
Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division.
Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...
Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division.
Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...
| FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings | ||||||||
| NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE | (including playoffs) | |||||||
| FF rank | Team | Div | week 17 | ConfRc | DvRec | Home | Season | WC rnd |
| A1 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | A1 | 10-2 | 5-1 | 7-1 | 12-4 | A1 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | A2 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 7-1 | 12-4 | A2 |
| A3 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | A3 | 9-3 | 5-1 | 8-0 | 12-4 | A3 |
| A4 | Denver Broncos | A-W | A4 | 10-2 | 6-0 | 8-0 | 12-4 | A4 |
| A5 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | A5 | 8-4 | 4-2 | 4-4 | 13-4 | A5 |
| B6 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | B8 | 9-3 | 6-0 | 6-2 | 12-5 | B6 |
| B7 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | C10 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 6-2 | 11-6 | B7 |
| B8 | Detroit Lions | N-N | B6 | 9-3 | 5-1 | 7-1 | 11-6 | B8 |
| C09 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | B7 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 11-6 | C09 |
| C10 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | C11 | 7-5 | 3-3 | 5-2-1 | 10-6-1 | C10 |
| C11 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | D19 | 6-6 | 4-2 | 4-4 | 8-8-1 | C11 |
| C12 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | B9 | 8-4 | 3-3 | 7-1 | 11-6 | C12 |
| D13 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | C12 | 6-6 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 10-6 | D13 |
| D14 | San Diego Chargers | A-W | D13 | 6-6 | 2-4 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D14 |
| D15 | Buffalo Bills | A-E | D14 | 5-7 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D15 |
| D16 | Kansas City Chiefs | A-W | D15 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 6-2 | 9-7 | D16 |
| D17 | Miami Dolphins | A-E | D16 | 7-5 | 3-3 | 4-4 | 8-8 | D17 |
| D18 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | D17 | 7-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 8-8 | D18 |
| D19 | Houston Texans | A-S | D18 | 8-4 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D19 |
| E20 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | E20 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | E20 |
| E21 | Cleveland Browns | A-N | E21 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 7-9 | E21 |
| E22 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | E22 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 3-5 | 7-9 | E22 |
| E23 | New York Giants | N-E | E23 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | E23 |
| E24 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | E24 | 6-6 | 1-5 | 5-3 | 7-9 | E24 |
| F25 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | F25 | 6-6 | 5-1 | 3-5 | 6-10 | F25 |
| G26 | Chicago Bears | N-N | G26 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 5-11 | G26 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | G27 | 2-10 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-12 | G27 |
| G28 | New York Jets | A-E | G28 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 4-12 | G28 |
| G29 | Oakland Raiders | A-W | G29 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3-13 | G29 |
| H30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | A-S | H30 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3-13 | H30 |
| H31 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | H31 | 1-11 | 0-6 | 0-8 | 2-14 | H31 |
| H32 | Tennessee Titans | A-S | H32 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 1-7 | 2-14 | H32 |
...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:
...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.
...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.
...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance).
...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...
...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.
...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Looking ahead now...
So the NFL Divisional Round is set, and it looks like this:
Saturday 2:30 pm - Baltimore at New England
The sixth seed (11-6) goes to the first seed (12-4), and the early line is Pats by 7 (we have that as our line at FF as well). But the Ravens' secondary looked strong against the Steelers yesterday, and that had been their major weakness. Personally, however, I never bet against the bye teams in this round, and I won't do so this year, either.
Saturday 6:15 pm - Carolina at Seattle
The only two teams to ever reach the playoffs with a losing record face each other. Unfortunately for the now 8-8-1 Panthers, Seattle is no longer 7-9 - they're 12-4, defending Super Bowl champs, and our number one team whom we've installed as ten point favorites.
Sunday 11:00 am - Dallas at Green Bay
Two of the five top teams in the league, matching up in a rematch of the Ice Bowl, the league championship game a lifetime ago (in the pre-merger sixties). We have the Packers installed as a four point favorite, but this is the game I'm most expecting an upset by the visiting team, despite the Packers' 8-0 magic at home.
Sunday 2:30 pm - Indianapolis at Denver
Peyton versus his old team. What more do you need? We have the Broncos as five point favorites, but the Colts have done well against Denver over the three years Mr. Luck has run the blue team, even if they lost 31-24 back in September this season.
Meanwhile, the FBS National Championship Game takes place in Dallas on January 12th, between Oregon and Ohio State. Neither team owns a geographic advantage, and both fan bases travel well, so the crowd advantage shouldn't be a factor. We favor Oregon by a point, although the casino line we use predicts the game as a seven-point Duck victory.
(And of COURSE, we are less than three months from the regular season opener for the Australian Football League!)
Saturday 2:30 pm - Baltimore at New England
The sixth seed (11-6) goes to the first seed (12-4), and the early line is Pats by 7 (we have that as our line at FF as well). But the Ravens' secondary looked strong against the Steelers yesterday, and that had been their major weakness. Personally, however, I never bet against the bye teams in this round, and I won't do so this year, either.
Saturday 6:15 pm - Carolina at Seattle
The only two teams to ever reach the playoffs with a losing record face each other. Unfortunately for the now 8-8-1 Panthers, Seattle is no longer 7-9 - they're 12-4, defending Super Bowl champs, and our number one team whom we've installed as ten point favorites.
Sunday 11:00 am - Dallas at Green Bay
Two of the five top teams in the league, matching up in a rematch of the Ice Bowl, the league championship game a lifetime ago (in the pre-merger sixties). We have the Packers installed as a four point favorite, but this is the game I'm most expecting an upset by the visiting team, despite the Packers' 8-0 magic at home.
Sunday 2:30 pm - Indianapolis at Denver
Peyton versus his old team. What more do you need? We have the Broncos as five point favorites, but the Colts have done well against Denver over the three years Mr. Luck has run the blue team, even if they lost 31-24 back in September this season.
Meanwhile, the FBS National Championship Game takes place in Dallas on January 12th, between Oregon and Ohio State. Neither team owns a geographic advantage, and both fan bases travel well, so the crowd advantage shouldn't be a factor. We favor Oregon by a point, although the casino line we use predicts the game as a seven-point Duck victory.
(And of COURSE, we are less than three months from the regular season opener for the Australian Football League!)
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Did we forget to publish our season end NFL Tiers?
WOW! CAN'T BELIEVE THAT!
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
So, that's embarassing enough, but even more so because when you look at these rankings and tiers and compare them with the records, you'll think we just looked at the RECORDS and ranked them in that order. We swear! That's not how it happened!
We really did sort the teams first, looking at how they performed in week 17 and adjusted their previous tiers accordingly, and THEN looked up the records. To our chagrin...
Picking NFL playoff games is a fairly straightforward crapshoot. Chalk always says, pick the home team in the first round. (The tiers say take Arizona over Carolina, though. Not sure our guts agree.) In the second round ALWAYS take the home team with the bye to rest up. After that...good luck!!
Regardless, here are our season-end tiers with rankings from 1-32:
A - 1. Seattle (12-4, 10-2 in conference, 5-1 in division games, 7-1 at home)
2. New England (12-4, 9-3, 4-2, 7-1)
3. Green Bay (12-4, 9-3, 5-1, 8-0)
4. Denver (12-4, 10-2, 6-0, 8-0)
5. Dallas (12-4, 8-4, 4-2, 4-4)
These five teams all have the tools to win it all. Hard to imagine Dallas going to both Wisconsin AND Washington and winning twice, though.
B - 6. Detroit (11-5, 9-3, 5-1, 7-1)
7. Pittsburgh (11-5, 9-3, 4-2, 6-2)
8. Indianapolis (11-5, 9-3, 6-0, 6-2)
These three teams have a chance, but they're flawed teams that are going to have to have exceptional runs from other segments of the team to make up for those flaws to win it all.
C - 9. Arizona (11-5, 8-4, 3-3, 7-1)
10. Baltimore (10-6, 6-6, 3-3, 6-2)
11. Cincinnati (10-5-1, 7-5, 3-3, 5-2-1)
12. Philadelphia (10-6, 6-6, 4-2, 6-2)
They're all four good teams, deserving of playoff spots, but we just can't see them overcoming their seedings to make it to the Super Bowl. (Especially the Eagles. Duh.)
D - 13. San Diego (9-7, 6-6, 2-4, 5-3)
14. Buffalo (9-7, 5-7, 4-2, 5-3)
15. Kansas City (9-7, 7-5, 3-3, 6-2)
16. Miami (8-8, 6-6, 3-3, 4-4)
17. San Francisco (8-8, 7-5, 2-4, 4-4)
18. Houston (9-7, 8-4, 4-2, 5-3)
19. Carolina (7-8-1, 6-6, 4-2, 4-4)
All good seasons, but not good enough (unless you play in the NFC South). Still, nothing to be ashamed of. It's interesting to watch mid-tier teams' reactions to a season like this, whether it becomes "something they can build on" or "there are things we need to improve on next year" or (in one case) "Hey, Michigan? Ya want him?"
E - 20. St. Louis (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
21. New Orleans (7-9, 6-6, 3-3, 3-5)
22. Cleveland (7-9, 4-8, 2-4, 4-4)
23. New York Giants (6-10, 4-8, 2-4, 3-5)
24. Minnesota (7-9, 6-6, 1-5, 5-3)
F - 25. Atlanta (6-10, 6-6, 5-1, 3-5)
Each of these teams has things that they can build on for next year, although watching Carolina's demolition of the Falcons on Sunday makes it hard to find anything beyond Matt Ryan in Atlanta; hence the separate tiering for the now coachless Falcon club.
G - 26. Chicago (5-11, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
27. Washington (4-12, 2-10, 2-4, 3-5)
28. New York Jets (4-12, 4-8, 1-5, 2-6)
29. Oakland (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
We're not big fans of the instinctive "fire the coach" reactions, but SOMETHING has to change for each of these teams. Coach, key players, owners, SOMETHING.
H - 30. Jacksonville (3-13, 2-10, 1-5, 3-5)
31. Tampa Bay (2-14, 1-11, 0-6, 0-8)
32. Tennessee (2-14, 2-10, 1-5, 1-7)
If there were somewhere to relegate these teams to - a "minor league" besides the FBS - we'd send these three teams there in a heartbeat. (Hey! They're all in SEC country! I wonder...) Besides, Florida doesn't really need three pro teams. Send one to LA and one to London.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Looking through the NFL final standings,...
...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...
8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).
8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.
0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...
0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).
The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.
6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)
Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).
Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.
Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).
Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!
8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).
8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.
0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...
0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).
The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.
6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)
Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).
Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.
Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).
Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!
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