Following up on prophecies from last week...

If we're to be legit about predicting games, we've got to follow up on our predictions each week, so you have some idea what return you're getting on your investment, right? So, here we go!

Rugby) Nailed it. New Zealand 34-17 over Australia.

NFL) An awkward weekend! Got four right (picking the Pats, Chiefs, Vikes, and Cards to win and cover); had one push (Ravens by three over SD) and three more where we picked the right winner but they barely missed the cover (Seattle by ONE, Houston by THREE instead of four, and Saints by THREE instead of 3 1/2! Aaagh!). Missed the winners entirely on victories by Tampa, the Raiders, Cincy and Denver (Manning be Manning again!); and missed that SF wouldn't cover against the Rams. So with the winners we went 9-4; ATS, though, we were 4-8-1, with one to go tonight. (Carolina covers seven against Indy.)

CFL) Two-and-two: we got the two dominant teams in the west, Calgary and Edmonton, winning their games handily. But we missed the other two - the BC Lions clinched a playoff spot by upsetting Toronto (guaranteeing them third place in the East), and sophomore franchise Ottawa moved within one step of a division title by beating Hamilton 12-6 in Hamilton! All they have to do now is play them again at home Saturday and either win or lose by fewer than six points. Good luck, RedBlacks!

NCAA) By sections...

BIG GAMES in the FBS - we went 4-1! Missed UNC beating Pitt 26-19, but nailed wins by Florida and LaTech, and knew Stanford and Notre Dame would win close battles with Wazzu and Temple, respectively.

BIG GAMES in the FCS - 3-3 here, but we're good with it. Our winners: Dayton 31-14 over Jacksonville; J-ville State routing Eastern Kentucky; and William & Mary over JMU. Our losers weren't embarrasing - Charleston Southern edged out Coastal Carolina, handing the defending conference champs their first loss; Fordham lost 31-29 to Colgate in an incredible game; and an even more amazing game saw Harvard beat Dartmouth as predicted, but only by one point (not 10+ as called). Big Green held the champs scoreless until six minutes to go in the game, stopping Harvard on interceptions, fumbles, and so forth every time they made it into hostile territory. But they scored a TD with six to go, failed on the next drive, and then went down and scored on fourth down to win the game 14-13. Great teams find ways to win.

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FBS - Four right, five wrong, one push, and one push-ish (Auburn lost by 8 on a seven point spread). Proud of the way Minnesota reacted Saturday night, and deserved to beat Michigan. Took three OTs for Oregon to prove our Sun Devil forecast wrong!

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FCS - Seven right, three winners but we missed the margin badly (Illinois St, Eastern Washington, and Marist weren't close to what we called), and five we had the wrong victors - congrats to Alabama A&M, Alcorn St, Penn, Furman, and first-year ballers Kennesaw St, who went to 6-2 with an upset of Monmouth Saturday! Are they actually a threat to Coastal and Charleston Southern? We'll find out soon enough!

All other games... - 14-8 in the FBS predictions against the spread; 32-7 picking winners in the FCS.

All in all, not bad...

Prophecies, part one...

Just for convenience of publishing, here are the predictions for the professionals first...college football will come out later in the day:

Here are our predictions for All Hallow’s Eve weekend of football!

RUGBY) We think the New Zealand All-Blacks will continue their dominance and rout Australia by more than a try (five points). The finals are on NBC this Saturday – check your listings; we don’t remember what time. (And if you’ve never seen the Haka, tune in early just for that!)

NFL) For some reason, we think it’s a boring weekend in the National!....Football!...LEAGUE! Out of the fourteen games on the slate for week eight, we see twelve of them as the favorite beating the spread:

New England (-8) over the Jets; Kansas City (-4.5) over the Lions; Atlanta (-7.5) over Tampa; Baltimore (-3) over the Chargers; Minnesota (-1) over Da Bears; Arizona (-5) over the Browns; Houston (-4) over the Titans [this one makes us uncomfortable, though, because of both teams’ QB situations]; New Orleans (-3.5) over the Giants [this one also took a long time…]; the New York Jets (-2) over the Raiders; Seattle (-6) over the QB-less (and rudderless) Cowboys; Green Bay (-3) over Denver [wanted to take Denver, and all our metrics say to…but Aaron Rogers, man…]; and Carolina (-7) over the listing Colts.

The only two underdogs we’re going with this weekend are San Francisco (+8.5) against the Rams [it’s just too high a spread], and we like Pittsburgh (+1.5) to beat Cincinnati outright at home this weekend, as much as we like the Bengals. Call it the 6-0 jinx – we don’t see any of the others losing (except Denver or Green Bay to each other, which is required), and it’s hard to see four 7-0 teams moving forward. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones has a functional offense, and the Bengals have a down game coming…

CFL) Two weeks left! Playoff spots and positions are on the line! Here are the standings as we speak…

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2015						Week 18			FF Elo-style
Western Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	Avg PF	Avg PA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Edmonton	13	4	1.53	426	319	25.1	18.8	107	36.4	2
Calgary	12	4	1.50	408	320	25.5	20.0	88	38.4	1 (-2)
BC Lions	6	10	0.75	403	433	25.2	27.1	-30	32.7	4 (-1)
Winnipeg	5	12	0.59	342	481	20.1	28.3	-139	23.6	8
Saskatchewan	2	14	0.25	381	497	23.8	31.1	-116	23.1	9
Eastern Team	W	L	PpG	PF	PA	APF	APA	P +/-	RATING	FF rank
Hamilton	10	6	1.25	496	335	31.0	20.9	161	35.0	3 (+2)
Ottawa	10	6	1.25	408	420	25.5	26.3	-12	27.4	6
Toronto	9	7	1.13	392	461	24.5	28.8	-69	24.3	7 (+3)
Montreal	6	10	0.75	342	332	21.4	20.8	10	29.9	5 (-2)

Hamilton and Ottawa happen to have their two remaining games with each other on back to back weeks, starting this Sunday in Hamilton and concluding in Ottawa on Saturday the 7^th. Meanwhile, Toronto gets two home games to end the year, against BC this Friday and Winnipeg next Friday, but to place first they have to depend on Ottawa and Hamilton tying both of their games! (The CFL computers give them a one-in-ten-thousand chance. Not sure how they figure it.) For the Ti-Cats and RedBlacks, it comes down to the head-to-head; Hamilton owns the tie breaker in a three-way tie; if Toronto falls by the wayside, it becomes a soccer playoff scoring – point differential in two games.

Meanwhile, Edmonton plays its last game of the season on Sunday, and if they win against 6-10 Montreal, they clinch the division. If they lose, Calgary’s got to win both this Saturday at home against poor Saskatchewan, and next Saturday in Vancouver.

There are three playoff spots in each division – the first place gets a bye, which is all-important, and hosts the winner of the third-at-second place game the week before. So, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Toronto are in for the East, while in the West it’ll be Edmonton, Calgary, and either BC or Montreal, who would get in using what they call the “crossover” rule – if a fourth place team is better than the other third place team, they steal that playoff spot! MY FAVORITE PLAYOFF RULE! Last year, it worked the other way: BC stole a spot in the East. So why not root for Montreal to steal the West spot this time? Basically, though, BC owns the tiebreaker, so Montreal must win more of their two remaining games (@ Edmonton and home v Saskatchewan) than British Columbia does (@ Toronto and v Calgary). Very possible. It’s also conceivable that Winnipeg steals the spot, but they’d have to win at Toronto next Friday and have Montreal and BC lose both games. Good luck, Blue Bombers.

Our Picks This Week) Toronto over BC, 28-20…Calgary routs the RoughRiders, 41-19… Hamilton edges Ottawa at home, 33-27…Edmonton clinches by beating Montreal, 31-13.

Maybe you just shouldn't punt!

After last night's disaster by the Indianapolis Colts (represented here, including a version by the Maine 1-AA team that shows how it might have meant to work), and the unbelievable last play of the Michigan/Michigan State game Saturday, perhaps we should all just go Pulaski Academy and never punt the ball again!

There's been a serious move in the "punt-less" direction over the last two years, where coaches "challenge the conventional wisdom" by going for it on fourth down around midfield, or even slightly on their own side of the field if it's short enough; but no somber commitment to the cause. I consider myself somewhat conservative in my approach, and here's the set of general rules I'd use as a head football coach if I were ever forced into the job...

Past midfield? Never punt.
Between your own 30 and midfield?Go for 4th and anything less than 3. Maybe 4-5, depending...
Behind your own 30? Go for 4th and 1 or less. Maybe 2...

(Subject to what kind of team I have, the opponent, the conditions, the time left in the game, etc.)

So, why don't more coaches punt less - like, WAY less? Here's the take of Paul Dalen, who wrote the piece for SB Nation about the math behind Pulaski's work linked above...

I don't think this kind of analysis would be a surprise to any decent coach. So, why do coaches "play it safe" (as if it weren't safer to make the choice to score more points)?

The answer to that, I think, lies in the way that we view errors of commission versus errors of omission. Or in other words, a coach that makes a choice to punt the ball from the 20-yard line would be viewed as making sound decisions, whereas one that chooses to go for it on the 20-yard line is considered a risk-taker. If the decision to punt turns out to be the decision that gives the ball back and the opponent then scores a TD, then the decision to punt is hardly considered as part of the evaluation of the sequence of events. If the decision to go for it fails and the opponent scores a TD, then the decision will be second-guessed ad nauseum. The result of both decisions is the same, but one would be criticized much more harshly than the other.

Humans are funny creatures.

We are indeed...we are indeed.

(Now, by the way, Kevin Kelley of Pulaski Academy also believes in onside kickoffs after almost every score - and they score a LOT; they're 10-0 this season - and now, he's planning on incorporating rugby style lateral passing into virtually every downfield play, something I've wondered about for years! WHY, if we think it'll work on the last play of the game, do we NEVER use downfield laterals the REST of the game? Wouldn't practicing it make it less dangerous by an order of magnitude or more?)

Thursday Thoughts: The RUGBY WORLD CUP 2015 has finally arrived!

After months of build up, it's time for the World Cup - we spent some time and posts discussing RWC 2015 in the first incarnation of Following Football, mostly because of its close kinship to all four brands of football that we normally cover, but we haven't talked about it much in the last month or so...

But Friday, match one features England and Fiji in the 'pool of death' (every such tournament has one, it seems!), and then Saturday features four different opening round matches all over England: the full schedule is here.

We have no particular idea as to who's in form, who the favorite should be, although here at Following Football, we tend to follow the All Blacks from New Zealand and root for them; the Australian Wallabies are also a blog favorite, and of course whenever the United States or Canada is in the mix, we're paying attention as well. But here's the ESPN expert predictions - remarkably, the majority of them see France as a team that will either make a surprising run into the semi finals OR self-destruct colorfully and dramatically.

UPDATE on the Collegiate Rugby Championships

True to predictions, Cal-Berkeley won its third straight title at the Penn Mutual Collegiate Rugby Championships, completed today in Philadelphia. Cal defeated last year's runners-up, Kutztown State, in another thrilling finals match - this one going to overtime before getting the winning try a minute into sudden death.

Meanwhile, the Penn State women also won their third straight title with a dominant 24-7 victory in the finals (after a 31-0 rout in the semis).

Here are the final results from Sunday's play:

Men's Collegiate:
CUP FINALS - QF) Life def. Navy 15-5...Kutztown St def. Indiana 31-12...Arizona def. Arkansas St 7-5...California def. Michigan 31-0. SF) California def. Life 33-5...Kutztown St def. Life 19-14. FINAL) California def. Kutztown St 17-12 (OT).

PLATE FINALS - SF) Dartmouth def. Air Force 20-5...UCLA def. Virginia Tech 27-10. FINAL) UCLA def. Dartmouth 33-5.

BOWL FINALS - SF) St. Joe's def. Alabama 21-14...Notre Dame def. Penn St 22-0. FINALS) Notre Dame def. St. Joe's 22-17.

SHIELD FINALS - SF) Boston College def. Texas 38-5...Temple def. Clemson 21-17. FINALS)  Temple def. Boston College 19-12.

Women's Collegiate:
CUP FINALS - SF) Penn State def. American International 31-0...Lindenwood def. Notre Dame College 24-17. THIRD PLACE) AIC def. Notre Dame 10-5. CHAMPIONSHIP) Penn State def. Lindenwood 24-7.

5th/6th place) Life def. Michigan 37-0.
7th/8th place)  Kutztown St def. James Madison 17-12.
9th/10th place) Arizona def. Delaware 20-0.
11th/12th place)  Notre Dame University def. Boston College 19-5.

Speaking of rugby...the Penn Mutual Collegiate Sevens Championships are on!

With the pool play completed today for the men, the twenty college teams are being divided into the four cutlery divisions (shield, bowl, plate, and cup...and who decided which of those was the most presitigious? It almost seems exactly backwards to me!). Here are the results from the men's pool play:

Pool A: Cal-Berkeley (3-0), Virginia Tech (1-1-1), Notre Dame (1-2), Boston College (0-2-1).

Pool B: Navy (3-0), Kutztown State (2-1), Air Force (1-2), Temple (0-3).
Pool C: Indiana (3-0), Life University (2-1), Alabama (1-2), Clemson (0-3).

Pool D: Arkansas St (3-0), Michigan (2-1), UCLA (1-2), Texas (0-3).
Pool E:  Arizona (2-1), Dartmouth (2-1), St. Joe's (1-2), Penn State (1-2).

So, the groupings for the single-elimination finals tomorrow: 
CUP Quarterfinals - Navy v Life University; Indiana v Kutztown State; Arkansas St v Arizona; Cal-Berkeley v Michigan.

PLATE - Dartmouth v Air Force; Virginia Tech v UCLA.

BOWL - St. Joe's v Alabama; Penn St v Notre Dame.

SHIELD  - Boston College. v Texas; Clemson v Temple.

In the women's field, three teams went 3-0 in their pool play, setting up the finals tonight: Penn State (two-time defending champs), Notre Dame College (from Ohio), and Lindenwood College (from Belleville, IL). They'll be joined by wild card second place finisher American International College in the semi-finals (AIC plays Penn St).

Meanwhile, the other eight schools play a three-game bracket tournament for places five through twelve, and Life University, Michigan, James Madison, and Kutztown State won the first round to set up two games tomorrow for places 5-8, while Delaware, Arizona, Boston College, and Notre Dame University will compete for places 9-12.

Here's a possible solution for the NFL's extra point dilemma!

While watching the Penn Mutual Rugby championships on NBC (the finals are tomorrow afternoon, btw), and explaining to my children how the try and conversion (extra point equivalent) work, and it dawned on my seventeen year old and I that it might be the solution the NFL is looking for...

Wherever the touchdown is scored in the end zone, the extra point must be attempted from a place perpendicular from the physical point where the touchdown is scored. 

I think you'll need to restrict it to between the numbers, because kicking from the physical sideline has inherent issues. Also, you can debate about the concept of how far back from the 2 you can go (I think not at all, but I'm open to that conversation), and to what constitutes the "point where the touchdown is scored" - certainly where a runner crosses the goal line, but when a receiver catches the ball on the back or side line, are we counting the spot where his feet first touched down? But the NFL Rules folks are good at those sorts of details; that shouldn't be a deterrent. 

But that would not only make the extra point interesting again, it would make the preceding touchdown more intriguing! Do you stick with the fade route to your 6'6" wide out, knowing where you're going to have to kick the point from? Does it increase the importance of the running game - especially the goal-line fullback? It leaves open the possibility of the faked two-point conversion, or simply the choice to go for two when you're on the numbers. It goes against the NFL's moving everything inwards, shrinking the hashmarks to the point where they're probably going to replace the two current hashes with one right down the middle of the field! But the more I think about this, the more reasonable it seems to me! It increases the reliance on good kickers, unlike most of the trendy thoughts on simply eliminating the kick altogether. And it's just as do-able at the college or high school level - What's not to like?

A sample rugby tournament bracket...

So, we wanted to show you what this format of tournament looks like in practice: Here is a sample bracket for a twenty-team round-robin tournament, followed by the major knockout phase and a sample "consolation" bracket as well...

	OPENING ROUND ROBINS - DIVIDE YOUR TEAMS INTO GROUPS OF 4
	Each team plays all three of the other teams in the group for a record.
	A		↔		C
		↕	↖↘↗↙	↕
	B		↔		D
	E		↔		G
		↕	↖↘↗↙	↕
	F		↔		H
	I		↔		K
		↕	↖↘↗↙	↕
	J		↔		L
	M		↔		O
		↕	↖↘↗↙	↕
	N		↔		P
	Q		↔		S
		↕	↖↘↗↙	↕
	R		↔		T
	THEN, take the group WINNERS and however many more
	you need to get a power of two, and put them in your
	"CHAMPIONSHIP BRACKET":
			#1 (best record)
		Loser		Winner
	Winner		#8 record			Winner
	Loser		#4 record		Loser
		Loser		Winner
			#5 record
Winner					Winner			Winner
	Winner		#2 record
		Loser		Winner
	Loser		#7 record		Loser
	Winner		#3 record			Winner
		Loser		Winner
			#6 record
	And you rank everyone, and then put each group of four remaining
	teams into a smaller bracket as shown, so they can compete for a
	smaller prize, and against teams closer to their own skill levels!
			#45th
		Loser		Winner
			#48th
Winner (of the Tea Bag)					Winner (of the Tea Cup)
			#46th
		Loser		Winner
			#47th
	Everyone competes for something, against someone who should be
	close to their own level of accomplishment, so they can grow!

 

A little bit o' American Rugby for you this weekend!

Here's the link to the collegiate Rugby Sevens tournament this weekend being held in Philadelphia, and broadcast on NBC (and NBCSN, if anyone actually has that cable station).

It includes a nice "rugby sevens for dummies" section that I'll reproduce here for you:

Rugby sevens for dummies    
- Where usual rugby matches are made up of 15 players a side and 80 minutes of total playing time, sevens is a much different variation of the sport. 
- While sevens matches are played on a field that is the same size as a normal rugby pitch, teams send only seven players onto the field at a time. The matches are considerably shorter than their conventional counterpart as well, with only two seven-minute halves and a two-minute break for halftime, instead of the usual 10.
- Because of more space and a wide-open pitch, rugby sevens are usually considered to be more exciting, fast-paced and high-scoring than the usual 15 vs. 15 matches. Starting in 2016, the sport will be a part of the Olympics.

The Penn State women and (of course) the Cal-Berkeley men are each two time defending champs and are looking to "three-peat" this weekend.

I'm always fascinated by the format of rugby tournaments - there's a round-robin, four teams in a group preliminary round, just like soccer and most sports of a similar structure, with the first place teams and some wild cards moving on to the championship "knockout" phase (for the men, twenty teams in five groups produce five firsts and three wild cards for the finals; the women have twelve teams and similarly put four in the finals).  

But the key difference in the rugby culture (and a cool difference, I think!) is that everyone moves on to a "knockout" round - while the top eight men's teams play for the cup, the next four compete for the "plate", the next four for the "bowl", and the bottom four for the "shield". Every team that comes is guaranteed a couple more games, so they'll play five or six games in all for their trouble of coming - and that's the joy of the trip, isn't it? To get to play the sport you love? As a bonus, those last couple of games are the most likely to be against teams of your approximate talent and accomplishment level! So if you're only the 18th best team, and Cal wipes you out in the round-robin, don't worry! You'll get a couple of games against the 19th and 17th best teams, teams that are also struggling as you are! For any tournament, this is good, but for a school tournament? This is ideal learning for everyone!