AFL update

Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...

North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.

In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).

On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:

Lance Franklin					SYD		148
Patrick Dangerfield					GEEL		146
Luke Parker					SYD		126
Jarrad Waite					NMK		101
Tom J Lynch					GCS		98
Joel Selwood					GEEL		97
Dan Hannebury					SYD		92
Max Gawn					MEL		92
Lachie Hunter					WB		90
Rory Sloane					ADE		90

Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!

As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...). 

UPS and DOWNS for August Week 3!

Welcome back to another edition of UPS and DOWNS, friends! Without further ado...

UP - SALIVATION LEVELS for AMERICAN FOOTBALL! It's amazing what some meaningless pre-season, week one games with actual NFL uniforms pounding into each other can do to the American, football-starved public! Not a single meaningful occurrence this weekend on the gridiron in the US, and yet tastebuds are prepared, appetites are salivating, and nowhere more than in Philadelphia, where they've been watching Chip Kelly's shenanigans for months now without anything to actually base an OPINION on! So, with four quarters under their belts against Indianapolis, they finally have barroom conversation - most of which will be based around Tim Tebow.

DOWN - SANTA CLAUS. Which reminds us: How BAD of a guy can Santa Claus be if a Philly crowd can give Tim Tebow a standing O before he plays a single down for them, and BOO Santa Claus? Whose opinion do I need to adjust? My opinion of Tebow, or Santa?

UP - THE WILD WEST! If we have to name two surprise teams in the Australian Footy League this year (in an "up" context!), it would have to be the two "Wests" - the West Coast Eagles, based in Perth, on the (you guessed it) west coast of Australia (currently sitting in second place when we and most others predicted they would yet again fail to reach the top eight), and the Western Bulldogs, who are 'western' only in the sense that the University of Michigan is the "champion of the west", as their fight song says. It was a different time. Western IS rather 'western' as the greater Melbourne area goes, and as the state of Victoria goes, which is where the Western (previously Footscray) Bulldogs are located. But Western's sitting fourth after a string of impressive victories, including the most thrilling 76-2 quarter and a half you'll ever watch en route to a 98 point win Sunday. It wasn't that Melbourne was bad, either - it's just that Western's players were moving SO FAST that the poor Demons had no shot at keeping up. From the Melbourne Demon point of view, it was the least embarrassing 76-2 run imaginable. If that makes sense. This weekend, Western travels TO the West Coast in a showdown of fast moving offenses and stellar defenses, and it's very possible that they'll meet again down the road in September during finals...even the Grand Final, perhaps!

DOWN - THE ESSENDON DONS.  Finally, finally, Essendon "parted ways" with their 'head coach' James Hird today - three days after yet another listless defeat (and that's complimentary to lists, who wouldn't want to be associated with it), this time to Adelaide 171-59, who ran around them like they were "witches' hats" (traffic cones, Yanks). Quite simply, the players stopped caring weeks ago. They'd play hard for a while, and it would be competitive for a quarter, maybe two. But once the other team started playing and passed them, that was it. And that's what happened last weekend - again - the Dons actually led by a goal after one, 4.3.27 to 3.3.21 (that reads, 4 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 27 for Essendon; 3 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 21 for Adelade). Which means the LAST three quarters went 24 goals to 4, Adelaide's way, and 150 points to 32. And remember, Adelaide's a middle of the pack team. Heaven forbid they met up with Hawthorn or West Coast right now. Hird's departure comes only a day or two after he defiantly told reporters he was still the right man for the job, and in today's press conference he was "dutifully stepping away for the benefit of the players",

If you've followed Hird's insipid handling of the season, you'll get a great laugh out of these quotes from the Tuesday presser, which I suspect...well, read this first:

"I'm not disappointed [that] the club's let me down," Hird said. 

"The reason for this decision is to enable the players and the supporters some space to perform and be a normal football club again.

"I didn't know it would come to this [but] I felt that the club needed space. There was a question mark there and that was enough to say, let's try something else. 

"These players have to be allowed to play. It's not just about me resigning or moving on, the industry has to let them play and give them some space. 

"It's not their fault. I think the industry should give them a break.

"My hesitation in leaving this club at this time is because I believe the players still need strong guidance and care, which I hope to continue to provide from a distance." 

That's right, friends - James Hird is the martyr here, heroically stepping aside so that the players can be "allowed to play". My favorite part, personally, is that he's "not disappointed the club's let ME down"...as if it's THEIR fault you couldn't be bothered to coach this year when that team so DESPERATELY needed some real guidance and coaching, maybe more than any team EVER in the league's history following the worst team doping scandal in sports history. 

Not to pre-empt PROPHECIES in tomorrow's Following Football, but I suspect Essendon's going to play a whole lot better the last three games this season...

Here's how far Essendon has fallen...

If you were wondering just how fast and far the Essendon Bombers are falling, here's exhibit A:

Their opponent, the Melbourne Demons, is favored for the first time all season (it's round 15). Prior to this, they were the underdogs against every single team in the competition for every game, by a total of almost 400 points. 

They're 5 1/2 point favorites Saturday.

Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Busy weekend outside the US - part two!

As for down under, both Carlton and Melbourne supporters are still partying as we speak, after their teams not only won but won in a manner that implies that they could keep winning with some more play like that! Carlton beat Port Adelaide 110-106 in a game that last year's Power team would never have let get away. This year, though, Port Adelaide simply doesn't have the strength to put away teams, to out-work or out-run them like last year on their way to that magical 11-1 start (since which they are under .500 in the exactly-one-season time). The game was a benchmark for both teams, and spells the direction each should head for the rest of the season.

Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!

More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.

The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:

TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)


By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:

Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

Wild Week 4 down under!

What a wild ANZAC holiday weekend in the Aussie Footy league!  I spent thirteen straight hours listening to the quadruple-header on line from Friday evening at seven through eight a.m. Saturday morning (ok, I heard all of the first two games, and dozed on and off through the other two!), with another five or six hours last night for the three overlapping Sunday games! Heaven!

Friday night, the opener for ANZAC week set the tone as the harder working team won; the fact that they were twenty point underdogs is immaterial.  Melbourne dominated Richmond 83-51 in the second half, holding the Tigers to one goal in the entire second half. Jack Riewoldt, the lead forward for Richmond, hit four behinds and zero goals in the game, for example, as the team went 6.15 (meaning six goals, fifteen behinds). And it was a PHYSICAL game, too, with each team racking up almost a hundred tackles.

Saturday started in Wellington, NZ, with St. Kilda 'hosting' Carlton, two bottom feeder teams. They played like it, too, and in the fourth quarter the younger Saints simply wore out, as Carlton pulled away and won by 40.

The traditional ANZAC day game over the last twenty years has been Essendon/Collingwood, at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Grounds, "the home of footy"). This year's version did not disappoint, as Collingwood looked far better than expected and won comfortably in the rain with 90,000 close friends, 69-49. It wasn't pretty (twice as many behinds as goals), but the Magpies are suddenly 3-1 and in the top 8 at the moment!

Next came the continuing degradation of the previous flavor of the month, the Gold Coast Suns, at the hands of their 'little brother', fellow expansion team GWS Giants, who set team records as they ripped the Suns apart 119-53. Frankly, the score flattered GC, as they were NEVER competitive; GWS had 157 more disposals than the Suns. Giants star Jeremy Cameron was spectacular with ten scoring shots, just missing a goal with a ridiculous backwards bicycle kick. 

The two nightcap games were the headliners, and played out virtually identically! The Grand Finalist (Hawthorn, Sydney) travels to the Up-n-Comers (Port Adelaide and Fremantle, respectively), and the home teams spend the first halves absolutely dismantling the champs (Port led Hawthorn 69-11 towards the end of the 2nd; Fremantle held Sydney to NINE points in the entire half). But the Champs are champs for a reason, and they found a gear at halftime that overwhelmed the younger team for a time (the Hawks scored 34 straight in the fourth to cut the lead to seven; the Swans outscored the Dockers 41-1 from the third into the fourth to cut that lead to three), before the opponent stabilized and won - Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn 99-91, and Fremantle became the only 4-0 team, winning 74-60 over Sydney. Great games!

On Sunday, West Coast outplayed Brisbane 118-65. WC had seventy inside 50s over the less experienced Lions, and played to their usual pattern: whomp the little guys; get whomped by the big guys. The Kangaroos held to form for a change, overcoming a virtual shutout in the first quarter to defeat aging Geelong 83-67 in a defensive battle where neither team played great defense. (Both teams moved an extra man into defense, which meant the offense couldn't just kick it in - the Roos figured out they needed to RUN the ball into the forward region, ending with just 10 marks inside 50 of their fifty-three inside 50s.)

And the upset of the round, unless you really believe in the hardest working team in the league: the Western Bulldogs, who amazed the unbeaten Adelaide Crows 125-68! Despite having more than fifty more possessions than the Crows, the Bulldogs still out-tackled them by eighteen! Already leading 69-35 at the half, the Doggies ran off thirty-four more points in a row to close out the third quarter. Suddenly, Western's got a 3-1 record, sitting comfortably inside the top eight, and looking like they may STAY there for awhile!

AFL Week 2 in Review/Preview Week 3

What a wild week of footy! Here are the game results from this weekend just concluded...

West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.

Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.

GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.

Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.

St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.

Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.

Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!

Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.

North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond. 

THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS - 
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.

..and AFL Week Two In Preview!

...and here are the match-ups for Week Two!

Fri) Carlton at West Coast 
    West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.

Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
   Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.

Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
   Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!

Adelaide at Collingwood 
   On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.

Sydney at Port Adelaide
   This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!

St. Kilda at Gold Coast
   On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.

Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
   Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.

Hawthorn at Essendon
    Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.

Brisbane at North Melbourne
   Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.

AFL Week One In Review...

Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:

Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78  (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)

Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:

Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2	87.1
Sydney Swans (1-0) #5	74.5
Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10	72.1
Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1	70.7
Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9	69.5
Geelong Cats (0-1) #17	57.9
N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18	55.6
West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12	55.6
Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3	55.1
Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13	52.5
Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15	42.2
Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6	37.3
Carlton Blues (0-1) #16	36.4
Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7	35.2
GWS Giants (1-0) #8	31.0
Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14	29.9
Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4	26.0
St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11	11.4

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!

So, following the 'NAB Preseason', here are our 2015 AFL predictions!

As the last nine games of the pre-season conclude this weekend with some of the traditional crosstown rivalries, we've done a simulation of the upcoming season from what we've seen so far. Here are the results, with checkpoints throughout the projected 2015 season:

After April (4 games in) -

4-0) ADELAIDE
3-1) HAWTHORN, NORTH, PORT, RICHMOND, GWS, BRISBANE
2-2) SYDNEY, GEELONG, GOLD COAST, ESSENDON, FREMANTLE
1-3) WEST COAST, COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, WESTERN
0-4) MELBOURNE, ST KILDA

Odd to see the Crows alone on top, but they've got an easy April to start the season.

Halfway through (after round 10, right before the byes) -

9-1) HAWTHORN, PORT ADELAIDE
7-2-1) ADELAIDE
7-3) SYDNEY,  NORTH MELBOURNE
6-4) GOLD COAST, FREMANTLE, RICHMOND
5-4-1) GWS
5-5) ESSENDON, GEELONG
4-6) WESTERN, BRISBANE
3-7) WEST COAST
2-8) COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, MELBOURNE
0-10) ST KILDA

Now the cream will start to rise...Port and the Hawks occupy the top two spots, and six of last year's top eight are there again, joined by the Crows and Suns. Note Geelong 5-5, West Coast at 3-7, the Magpies with just 2 wins, and the Saints on a ten game losing streak.

After sixteen rounds, with just seven games to go...

14-1) HAWTHORN
12-3) PORT, NORTH
11-4) SYDNEY
10-4-1) ADELAIDE
9-6) FREMANTLE, RICHMOND, GOLD COAST
So, the top eight are unchanged from the last list...and a gap to...
7-7-1) GWS
7-8) GEELONG, ESSENDON, WESTERN
5-10) WEST COAST
4-11) BRISBANE, COLLINGWOOD
3-12) CARLTON, MELBOURNE
2-13) ST KILDA

And finally, our forecast for the final records for the 2015 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (19-3)
2. Sydney Swans (18-4)
3. North Melbourne Kangaroos (18-4)
4. Port Adelaide Power (15-7)
5. Fremantle Dockers (15-7)
6. Adelaide Crows (14-7-1)
7. Geelong Cats (13-9)
8/9. Richmond/Gold Coast (12-10)!!!
10. Essendon Bombers (11-11)
11. GWS Giants (10-11-1)
12. Western Bulldogs (9-12-1)
13. West Coast Eagles (8-14)
14. Collingwood Magpies (7-15)
15. Brisbane Lions (6-15-1)
16. Melbourne Demons (5-17)
17. Carlton Blues (3-19)
18. St. Kilda Saints (2-20)

Reviewing these, a few points...the top two are unchanged from last year, and we expect a repeat of last year's Grand Final participants...Port will fade, Freo will charge, but the percentage will keep the Power in the top four for the double chance during finals...Geelong and Sydney will both end the season well, our prediction suggesting that the Cats will end on a 7 of 8 run, and the Swans will win their last ten... We see Richmond and Gold Coast as a flat footed tie, which means ,argins of victory (and defeat!) will be critical all year for them!... Hard to fault the Dons if they don't make finals after the distractions...GWS should make another four win jump, and don't be shocked if it's more... Continuing to fall, West Coast and Collingwood and Carlton and St. Kilda, while Melbourne and Brisbane and Western will improve. Again, we see another Hawthorn/Sydney GF, and just as we won't stick our neck out for 8th, we also won't for first! Right now, we'd take the defenders...

The latest down under on all fronts!

The top all-footy news show in Australia, Footy Feed, looks like it's the best and quickest way to catch you up to speed on all the wild and varied goings-on in the AFL on and off the field...strike that: off the field. The lingering Essendon supplements scandal, the revelation early in the week about the banned painkiller in Fremantle star Ryan Crowley's system last September, the strangely insubstantial seeming betting scandal involving Western Bulldogs Lachie Hunter, and the weird situation involving the Melbourne Demons' Heretier Lumumba questioning the AFL about the doping rules as they might be applied to (of all things) passive marijuana exposure due to his connection with Rastafarianism during his time in the Caribbean.

It's been a wild few weeks in Australia! (And it's only the pre-season...excuse me: the "NAB pre-season"!)

ON the field, there were three games Thursday and Friday VERY much worth watching: 

1) Essendon's second stringers came up big against Melbourne Friday, stealing an errant pass to score an uncontested goal that won the game, 77-75. (And you don't think it meant something to those 'kids'? Watch their celebration at the end of the video!) Both teams look like they're heading the right direction.

2) Speaking of which, my two favorite Queensland teams, Gold Coast and the Brisbane Lions, played to a 63-all tie (a rare but not ridiculous occurrence - it happens once or twice a year), with both teams looking up and down, mostly good but also missing a few key bodies. (Gold Coast has played all pre-season without two-time MVP - that is, Brownlow Medal winner - Gary Ablett Jr, as they played the last eight games of 2014 when they fell out of finals. With him, the Suns figure to be favorites to make at least the top 8, maybe even the top 4.)

3) And on Thursday night, Hawthorn and Saint Kilda played a highly uncompetitive game, but it was just as entertaining because it was an absolute clinic by the two-time defending champions in a 145-39 spanking of last year's "wooden spoon" winners. Hard not to tab Hawthorn as the pre-season favorites after their pre-season performance.

Starting with some Aussie Footy first...

There was another weekend of warm-up games down under, and the big news was the suspension and possible ending of the career of Fremantle star Ryan Crowley, who copped to using a banned substance in a pain-killer last September. The article has some interesting things to say about how and why narcotic and codeine based pain killers work the way they do, and the reasons for banning them when (unlike PEDs) they don't strictly speaking improve performance. Definitely worth a read, whether you follow the Australian brand of football or not.

As for the games themselves, both Essendon and Port Adelaide put out teams that were barely shells of their actual rosters - Essendon because of the 2012 supplement scandal we've addressed many times, and Port for less excusable reasons (in my humble opinion), resulting in games won very easily by GWS and Richmond, respectively. Carlton had a good win against Collingwood, and the game between Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs was interesting, as the Dees went out to a huge lead (60-8!) just after halftime and hardly scored again, as the Doggies came back to close the gap to just seven by the final horn. Sydney and Fremantle played what was designated as the Pride Game, ostensibly recognizing sexual orientation choice but somehow never coming out and saying as much... nevertheless, it was disappointing for the stars it didn't include in the pre-season outing. (Sorry - "outing" is a bad choice of words for a gay pride game.) The best game of the weekend was probably Thursday night between Geelong and Adelaide, as both teams put their best players out on the field for a good game won by the Cats of Geelong, a town north of Melbourne with a long footy history. Both teams are favorites to make the final 8 this year.

Aussie round up - Preseason week 2

So, here's a quick wrap up of the weekend's pre-season games down under...

Fremantle defeated Melbourne, 61-43, in a rather unspectacular game where each team had their "moments" to build on. (Fremantle should end up being a much stronger team than the Demons as the season wears on.)

The Brisbane Lions look fantastic, smashing the Grand Finalist Sydney Swans by a score of 75-39 on Friday. Admittedly, it was the Swans' first game and the second for the Lions, but there were still some amazing flashes of growth and improvement from the 7-win Lions from last year!

Greater Western Sydney also looked great, defeating the Gold Coast Suns by 36 points. GC rested most of their stars but still, the Giants were really on top of things Saturday!

The match everyone had been waiting to see went exactly as everyone had feared... St. Kilda rolled over the imposters wearing the Essendon Bombers uniforms, in some cases with the highest numbers in footy history (you never see numbers in the 70s on the field!), as they were playing their "top-up" players while virtually the entire team - every man who was on the Dons in 2012, when the supplement scandal was taking place - was on probable suspension through the pre-season. With the 101-51 score, we learned virtually nothing about St. Kilda, and literally nothing about Essendon.

Port Adelaide beat the West Coast Eagles by the substantial score of 89-49, but the real story was yet another injury to a key Eagle player, meaning West Coast is looking at a depleted roster even before the start of the real season.

Finally, the game that I got to hear Saturday night (their Sunday afternoon) was the best game of the pre-season so far, with a strong Hawthorn team falling to an even stronger team from North Melbourne, looking all the while like a Grand Final contender after being a surprise semi-finalist last year! 38-year old Brent Harvey, the oldest in the league, continues to look like a superstar, and both teams are in midseason form already!

It's also becoming clear that the new enforcement of the tackling rule - no more question as to whether a man with the ball has been tackled or got rid of the ball in time: it's now a tackle every time! - will benefit those teams who are already good tacklers, and avoid being tackled themselves! Who might that be? Only the three teams who have already shown they were loaded for bear this season and were ready to move up the ranks: Brisbane, GWS, and Gold Coast. Look out for those three as possible up'n'comers for finals this year!

Slogans? SLOGANS!

The last post talked about the membership drives each of the teams is pushing right now, leading into the 2015 season which starts for "real" at the beginning of April. 

And with any campaign, there are slogans to keep the attention of the viewing and listening public....Some of the slogans are (shall we say) better than others?

Kangaroos - "#getREAL"
Sydney Swans - "Feel it in '15"
Geelong - "We need you, be a member at home or far away"
Collingwood - "Side by side we stick together: it's more than a line in our song"
    (what?)
None of those approach the dubious charm of some of Carlton's efforts a few years ago...
"They know we're coming" and "Can You Smell What The Blues Are Cooking?", straight out of The Rock's wrestling motto.

The all-time worst, in retrospect, belongs to the 2013 Essendon Dons, who were about to be embroiled in the worst doping scandal in AFL history: "Whatever It Takes". Really, Dons? It really ended up being "whatever it took", didn't it?

Some more of this year's better samples - "Unleash 2015" (Adelaide), "#ForeverFreo" (Fremantle), "My Heart Beats True" (Melbourne, a good slogan for a team trying to come back), "Bring The Noise" (Port Adelaide, to one of the louder fan bases in the league), and West Coast's "The West Is Ours" (always in a fan battle with its crosstown rival Fremantle). We kind of like some of the hashtag examples, too - #gatherthepack (Western Bulldogs), #StandTall (GWS, who has a great big front line), and #BelieveBelong (for Brisbane).