This feature WON'T be
As regular as the rest,
But, ONCE in a while...
Michael Sam retired.
Well, "stepped away from the game,"
But, two plus two is...
Pre-season football
Doesn't have the appeal, but...
Better than nothing!
Up twelve to nothing,
Alouettes' offense did SQUAT:
Edmonton by three.
Magpies SHOULD'VE won,
But Sydney KNOWS how to win.
Swans finish up nine.
Hamilton Ti-Cats
an-NI-hi-late the Lions:
Three complete phases.
Great night of footy!
Stayed up all night listening:
Then slept in past ten...
Hawthorn smashed Geelong;
Essendon has given up;
and Carlton's now last.
Not a haiku, but an amazing statistic... Friday was the start of the German Bundesliga (major league futbol, one of the European Champions leagues), and the odds of winning the league title for favorite Bayern Munich was 1-12, which means they are SO certain of winning that betting a "dollar" (sorry, I'm American) would only earn you a twelfth of a dollar in winnings (1.08), or that if you bet twelve euros, you'd only get thirteen back if they win. By contrast, every American NFL, NBA, or MLB team had odds of at least 2.5 to 1, so you'd win at least $2.50 plus your original dollar at the very worst.
Would love to say that
The N-F-L inspires me...
But not pre-season.
Showing posts with label Sydney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sydney. Show all posts
Saturday, August 15, 2015
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
UPS AND DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 2
Welcome to Following Football 2.0 - updated format, updated focus, better prepared to service you, the eclectic football fan! UP FIRST, most appropriately, our Tuesday column stretching across three countries and four versions of the sport... UPS AND DOWNS for the second week of August, 2015!
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Discrimination and bigotry have no place ANYWHERE.
Australia, and the AFL, are dealing with it big time this week, as Sydney legend and indigenous role model Adam Goodes was once again the target of a preposterous amount of booing from the West Coast Eagle "fans" Sunday when the Swans traveled to Perth and were defeated soundly by the Eagles. While Goodes was one of the few shining lights for the red and white in the game, he was roundly booed every time he touched the ball, and one of his closest friends on the team, young indigenous player Lewis Jetta, showed his disgust to the crowd after a goal he scored by doing a very similar war dance to the one Goodes performed as part of his goal-scoring celebration during the actual Indigenous round two months ago.
Links to a series of articles are here displaying the length and breadth of support for Goodes on the one hand - a two-time Brownlow medalist as AFL player of the year and the 2014 Australian of the Year, for heaven's sake! - and the disgust for the racist behavior of an admitted minority of fans at stadiums across Australia.
Saddest of all, though, is that as strong as Goodes has been for a long time about the bigoted treatment he's been on the end of, it's finally worn him down. This week, starting on Tuesday, he asked for and received a leave of absence from the club for the time being, obviously to try and recover from the unwarranted vilification he's received. For a man with 365 games under his belt in the AFL, arguably one of the five greatest Swans players ever and certainly the greatest in the last twenty years, the four time All-Australian was looking forward to retirement that he may find the need to pull the trigger on prematurely to spare his own team the harsh spotlight of bigotry.
And if that happens, it will be perhaps the darkest day in AFL history, even more so than the murder of Phil Walsh a few weeks ago, because this will be one that their own fans brought upon it themselves.
Links to a series of articles are here displaying the length and breadth of support for Goodes on the one hand - a two-time Brownlow medalist as AFL player of the year and the 2014 Australian of the Year, for heaven's sake! - and the disgust for the racist behavior of an admitted minority of fans at stadiums across Australia.
Saddest of all, though, is that as strong as Goodes has been for a long time about the bigoted treatment he's been on the end of, it's finally worn him down. This week, starting on Tuesday, he asked for and received a leave of absence from the club for the time being, obviously to try and recover from the unwarranted vilification he's received. For a man with 365 games under his belt in the AFL, arguably one of the five greatest Swans players ever and certainly the greatest in the last twenty years, the four time All-Australian was looking forward to retirement that he may find the need to pull the trigger on prematurely to spare his own team the harsh spotlight of bigotry.
And if that happens, it will be perhaps the darkest day in AFL history, even more so than the murder of Phil Walsh a few weeks ago, because this will be one that their own fans brought upon it themselves.
Monday, July 6, 2015
Okay, now all the votes are in...
...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:
Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)
Between the 50s:
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)
Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)
Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today.
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)
And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).
(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME TEAM POINTS
Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)
Between the 50s:
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)
Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)
Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today.
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)
And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).
(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME TEAM POINTS
| Fyfe, Nat | F | 221 |
| Hannebury, Dan | SY | 124 |
| Armitage, David | SK | 112 |
| Pendlebury, Scott | CO | 106 |
| Cotchin, Trent | R | 101 |
| Shiel, Dylan | GW | 100 |
| Mitchell, Sam | H | 92 |
| Priddis, Matt | WC | 91 |
| Goldstein, Todd | NM | 88 |
| Steven, Jack | SK | 83 |
| Gray, Robbie | PA | 81 |
| Murphy, Marc | CA | 80 |
| Beams, Dayne | B | 80 |
| Franklin, Lance | SY | 79 |
| Kennedy, Josh | SY | 75 |
| Martin, Dustin | R | 74 |
| Dangerfield, Patrick | A | 73 |
| Gaff, Andrew | WC | 73 |
| Hurley, Michael | E | 70 |
| Parker, Luke | SY | 70 |
| Murphy, Robert | WB | 69 |
| Neale, Lachie | F | 68 |
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL
These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.
Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS
Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western
And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)
Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS
Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western
And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Australian update...
As for the AFL, hitting its midseason lull for the three bye weeks to give players a chance to recover a little bit (what LeBron James wouldn't have done for a bye week to recover during the NBA finals!), the league-leading Fremantle Dockers have finally hit a bit of a lull themselves, first losing to Richmond in week 10 and then barely hanging on to beat last-place Gold Coast by seven points this last Saturday!
This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend.
Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.
Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:
Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).
Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).
Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)
This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend.
Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.
Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:
Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).
Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).
Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Coming up on AFL week 10!
After nine weeks, with Fremantle still poised on top of the ladder, clear by two, we used the AFL Ladder Predictor to play the "what if" game...you know: What if things go the way we predict they will game by game? Who finishes where?
Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania).
> Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.
> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.
> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.
> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)
Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.
Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania).
> Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.
> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.
> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.
> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)
Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Week 8 down under...
Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43
The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go!
Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.
At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...
...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.
In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).
Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!
Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43
The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go!
Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.
At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...
...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.
In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).
Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!
Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)
Friday, May 22, 2015
Footy news - 5/22/2015
Geelong whomped Carlton from the opening bounce Friday night (again, that's already happened in Australia) 140-63, increasing the pressure on the Blues to do something dramatic when, truthfully, no quick fix is going to change the fact that they simply don't have enough AFL talent on their roster. Firing legendary coach Mick Malthouse, now the winningest coach in history, in mid-season is cruel and would do no good; the calls from the sensible folks to announce that Malthouse will coach out the season and a new coach (and lots of new players!) would join the Blues for 2016 makes more sense at this point. (A story on afl.com.au's "Pick A Winner" show listed only SEVEN players who should by consensus in the Carlton ranks, and another half-dozen who might; the others aren't really qualified to play at the highest level yet. Legendary player Garry Lyon said Monday that only THREE players "deserved to wear their jumpers" (which are uniform jerseys, statesiders). THAT makes it tough to win when you have a 22-man roster of grown men AFL players on the other side of the pitch!)
Meanwhile, the AFL has revised the system for two draft day peculiarities that Americans aren't familiar with: the father-son connection and the academy priority pick. This year, for example, Isaac Heeney, easily one of the two or three best players in the draft, went to Sydney at choice number 18 because he had been "raised" and trained in the Sydney Swan Training Academy. There should certainly be some credit given to a club for doing the work which made the player great, but Melbourne was willing to draft him at 2 and never had the chance. Similarly, Joe Daniher went to Essendon a few years ago at pick 10, even though he was arguably the best player in the draft and would have gone #1 in the open market - however, since his dad played for Essendon, he had the right to declare himself a Bomber, and being highly rated that required the Dons to spend whatever their highest draft choice was on him. The new system is extremely complicated, but computer apps can handle those details and level out the playing field without depriving clubs of those advantages. (Wonder how long it'll be for a Giant or Sun to be drafted as a father-son!)
One of the funny occurrences in the Geelong game, especially for an AFL regular season game, was the request on the field after the game from winning team member Cam Guthrie, 23 years of age, to veteran two-time Brownlow Medal winner Chris Judd of Carlton for his jumper, ideally signed! The speculation, well-founded, is that Guthrie had grown up as a footy player idolizing Judd (a good choice, as footy role models go), and although Guthrie frankly had a better performance than Judd Friday night, he's simply "that kind of dude", as they called him in the radio booth! Judd obliged, but hesitated about taking Guthrie's Geelong jersey in return...
Meanwhile, the AFL has revised the system for two draft day peculiarities that Americans aren't familiar with: the father-son connection and the academy priority pick. This year, for example, Isaac Heeney, easily one of the two or three best players in the draft, went to Sydney at choice number 18 because he had been "raised" and trained in the Sydney Swan Training Academy. There should certainly be some credit given to a club for doing the work which made the player great, but Melbourne was willing to draft him at 2 and never had the chance. Similarly, Joe Daniher went to Essendon a few years ago at pick 10, even though he was arguably the best player in the draft and would have gone #1 in the open market - however, since his dad played for Essendon, he had the right to declare himself a Bomber, and being highly rated that required the Dons to spend whatever their highest draft choice was on him. The new system is extremely complicated, but computer apps can handle those details and level out the playing field without depriving clubs of those advantages. (Wonder how long it'll be for a Giant or Sun to be drafted as a father-son!)
One of the funny occurrences in the Geelong game, especially for an AFL regular season game, was the request on the field after the game from winning team member Cam Guthrie, 23 years of age, to veteran two-time Brownlow Medal winner Chris Judd of Carlton for his jumper, ideally signed! The speculation, well-founded, is that Guthrie had grown up as a footy player idolizing Judd (a good choice, as footy role models go), and although Guthrie frankly had a better performance than Judd Friday night, he's simply "that kind of dude", as they called him in the radio booth! Judd obliged, but hesitated about taking Guthrie's Geelong jersey in return...
Monday, May 18, 2015
Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?
Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.
So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!
So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.
2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.
6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).
10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!
14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!
17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.
So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!
So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.
2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.
6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).
10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!
14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!
17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Updated AFL predictions after five weeks...
Before the season began, we posted our predictions for the then-still-upcoming 2015 AFL season (Hawthorn 19-3, N. Melbourne with Sydney at 18-4...)
After five games, however, there are some patterns emerging that have changed our thinking, What you see here is information for the top thirteen projections: current record and rating, projected record at their bye (in either week 11, 12, or 13), and at the end of the season...
TEAM FFRS Record-----------------------------------------------------------
Rating Current At their bye End of season (Previous pred)
Hawthorn 88.1 3-2 8-2 19-3 19-3
Fremantle 79.3 5-0 9-2 18-4 15-7
Sydney 71.9 3-2 7-4 17-5 18-4
Western 49.4 4-1 7-3 16-6 9-12-1
Collingwood 52.7 4-1 9-2 15-7 7-15
Port Adelaide 71.3 3-2 10-2 15-7 15-7
Adelaide 57.9 3-2 7-3 15-7 14-7-1
North Melbourne 57.3 2-3 5-7 13-9 18-4
Essendon 48.6 3-2 7-4 13-9 11-11
GWS 36.7 3-2 7-5 13-9 10-11-1
West Coast 66.4 3-2 7-5 10-12 8-14
Geelong 52.3 2-3 5-7 9-13 13-9
Richmond 49.0 2-3 3-7 9-13 12-10
[Lower down the ladder and not really worth projecting - Gold Coast, St. Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Just assume none of them will break seven wins, lose fewer than fifteen, or be anything more than a spoiler the rest of the season.]
After five games, however, there are some patterns emerging that have changed our thinking, What you see here is information for the top thirteen projections: current record and rating, projected record at their bye (in either week 11, 12, or 13), and at the end of the season...
TEAM FFRS Record-----------------------------------------------------------
Rating Current At their bye End of season (Previous pred)
Hawthorn 88.1 3-2 8-2 19-3 19-3
Fremantle 79.3 5-0 9-2 18-4 15-7
Sydney 71.9 3-2 7-4 17-5 18-4
Western 49.4 4-1 7-3 16-6 9-12-1
Collingwood 52.7 4-1 9-2 15-7 7-15
Port Adelaide 71.3 3-2 10-2 15-7 15-7
Adelaide 57.9 3-2 7-3 15-7 14-7-1
North Melbourne 57.3 2-3 5-7 13-9 18-4
Essendon 48.6 3-2 7-4 13-9 11-11
GWS 36.7 3-2 7-5 13-9 10-11-1
West Coast 66.4 3-2 7-5 10-12 8-14
Geelong 52.3 2-3 5-7 9-13 13-9
Richmond 49.0 2-3 3-7 9-13 12-10
[Lower down the ladder and not really worth projecting - Gold Coast, St. Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Just assume none of them will break seven wins, lose fewer than fifteen, or be anything more than a spoiler the rest of the season.]
Saturday, May 2, 2015
I am DONE not believing in the Western Bulldogs!!!
Over the first five weeks of the AFL season, the Western Bulldogs have been expected to LOSE all five games. By our rating system, by the AFL.com bettors, by the official Australian betting lines, and by my own tipster predictions, the Bulldogs "should" be 0-5.
They defeated the reigning minor premier Sydney Swans "today" (Saturday afternoon, Australian time) 77-73, to move to 4-1, losing only to defending champ Hawthorn in Tasmania. They defeated 3-0 Adelaide, West Coast,Richmond and now Sydney, all as underdogs.
With budding superstar Marcus Bontempelli leading the publicity, Stewart Crameri, the revived Tom Boyd, Luke Dalhaus and super-goal-scorer Jake Stringer, the Bulldogs are looking more and more like a legitimate finalist (unlike, perhaps, our previous darling GWS Giants, who got demolished by West Coast "last" night 120-33.
Full report tomorrow after the end of the round...
They defeated the reigning minor premier Sydney Swans "today" (Saturday afternoon, Australian time) 77-73, to move to 4-1, losing only to defending champ Hawthorn in Tasmania. They defeated 3-0 Adelaide, West Coast,Richmond and now Sydney, all as underdogs.
With budding superstar Marcus Bontempelli leading the publicity, Stewart Crameri, the revived Tom Boyd, Luke Dalhaus and super-goal-scorer Jake Stringer, the Bulldogs are looking more and more like a legitimate finalist (unlike, perhaps, our previous darling GWS Giants, who got demolished by West Coast "last" night 120-33.
Full report tomorrow after the end of the round...
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Wild Week 4 down under!
What a wild ANZAC holiday weekend in the Aussie Footy league! I spent thirteen straight hours listening to the quadruple-header on line from Friday evening at seven through eight a.m. Saturday morning (ok, I heard all of the first two games, and dozed on and off through the other two!), with another five or six hours last night for the three overlapping Sunday games! Heaven!
Friday night, the opener for ANZAC week set the tone as the harder working team won; the fact that they were twenty point underdogs is immaterial. Melbourne dominated Richmond 83-51 in the second half, holding the Tigers to one goal in the entire second half. Jack Riewoldt, the lead forward for Richmond, hit four behinds and zero goals in the game, for example, as the team went 6.15 (meaning six goals, fifteen behinds). And it was a PHYSICAL game, too, with each team racking up almost a hundred tackles.
Saturday started in Wellington, NZ, with St. Kilda 'hosting' Carlton, two bottom feeder teams. They played like it, too, and in the fourth quarter the younger Saints simply wore out, as Carlton pulled away and won by 40.
The traditional ANZAC day game over the last twenty years has been Essendon/Collingwood, at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Grounds, "the home of footy"). This year's version did not disappoint, as Collingwood looked far better than expected and won comfortably in the rain with 90,000 close friends, 69-49. It wasn't pretty (twice as many behinds as goals), but the Magpies are suddenly 3-1 and in the top 8 at the moment!
Next came the continuing degradation of the previous flavor of the month, the Gold Coast Suns, at the hands of their 'little brother', fellow expansion team GWS Giants, who set team records as they ripped the Suns apart 119-53. Frankly, the score flattered GC, as they were NEVER competitive; GWS had 157 more disposals than the Suns. Giants star Jeremy Cameron was spectacular with ten scoring shots, just missing a goal with a ridiculous backwards bicycle kick.
The two nightcap games were the headliners, and played out virtually identically! The Grand Finalist (Hawthorn, Sydney) travels to the Up-n-Comers (Port Adelaide and Fremantle, respectively), and the home teams spend the first halves absolutely dismantling the champs (Port led Hawthorn 69-11 towards the end of the 2nd; Fremantle held Sydney to NINE points in the entire half). But the Champs are champs for a reason, and they found a gear at halftime that overwhelmed the younger team for a time (the Hawks scored 34 straight in the fourth to cut the lead to seven; the Swans outscored the Dockers 41-1 from the third into the fourth to cut that lead to three), before the opponent stabilized and won - Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn 99-91, and Fremantle became the only 4-0 team, winning 74-60 over Sydney. Great games!
On Sunday, West Coast outplayed Brisbane 118-65. WC had seventy inside 50s over the less experienced Lions, and played to their usual pattern: whomp the little guys; get whomped by the big guys. The Kangaroos held to form for a change, overcoming a virtual shutout in the first quarter to defeat aging Geelong 83-67 in a defensive battle where neither team played great defense. (Both teams moved an extra man into defense, which meant the offense couldn't just kick it in - the Roos figured out they needed to RUN the ball into the forward region, ending with just 10 marks inside 50 of their fifty-three inside 50s.)
And the upset of the round, unless you really believe in the hardest working team in the league: the Western Bulldogs, who amazed the unbeaten Adelaide Crows 125-68! Despite having more than fifty more possessions than the Crows, the Bulldogs still out-tackled them by eighteen! Already leading 69-35 at the half, the Doggies ran off thirty-four more points in a row to close out the third quarter. Suddenly, Western's got a 3-1 record, sitting comfortably inside the top eight, and looking like they may STAY there for awhile!
Friday night, the opener for ANZAC week set the tone as the harder working team won; the fact that they were twenty point underdogs is immaterial. Melbourne dominated Richmond 83-51 in the second half, holding the Tigers to one goal in the entire second half. Jack Riewoldt, the lead forward for Richmond, hit four behinds and zero goals in the game, for example, as the team went 6.15 (meaning six goals, fifteen behinds). And it was a PHYSICAL game, too, with each team racking up almost a hundred tackles.
Saturday started in Wellington, NZ, with St. Kilda 'hosting' Carlton, two bottom feeder teams. They played like it, too, and in the fourth quarter the younger Saints simply wore out, as Carlton pulled away and won by 40.
The traditional ANZAC day game over the last twenty years has been Essendon/Collingwood, at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Grounds, "the home of footy"). This year's version did not disappoint, as Collingwood looked far better than expected and won comfortably in the rain with 90,000 close friends, 69-49. It wasn't pretty (twice as many behinds as goals), but the Magpies are suddenly 3-1 and in the top 8 at the moment!
Next came the continuing degradation of the previous flavor of the month, the Gold Coast Suns, at the hands of their 'little brother', fellow expansion team GWS Giants, who set team records as they ripped the Suns apart 119-53. Frankly, the score flattered GC, as they were NEVER competitive; GWS had 157 more disposals than the Suns. Giants star Jeremy Cameron was spectacular with ten scoring shots, just missing a goal with a ridiculous backwards bicycle kick.
The two nightcap games were the headliners, and played out virtually identically! The Grand Finalist (Hawthorn, Sydney) travels to the Up-n-Comers (Port Adelaide and Fremantle, respectively), and the home teams spend the first halves absolutely dismantling the champs (Port led Hawthorn 69-11 towards the end of the 2nd; Fremantle held Sydney to NINE points in the entire half). But the Champs are champs for a reason, and they found a gear at halftime that overwhelmed the younger team for a time (the Hawks scored 34 straight in the fourth to cut the lead to seven; the Swans outscored the Dockers 41-1 from the third into the fourth to cut that lead to three), before the opponent stabilized and won - Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn 99-91, and Fremantle became the only 4-0 team, winning 74-60 over Sydney. Great games!
On Sunday, West Coast outplayed Brisbane 118-65. WC had seventy inside 50s over the less experienced Lions, and played to their usual pattern: whomp the little guys; get whomped by the big guys. The Kangaroos held to form for a change, overcoming a virtual shutout in the first quarter to defeat aging Geelong 83-67 in a defensive battle where neither team played great defense. (Both teams moved an extra man into defense, which meant the offense couldn't just kick it in - the Roos figured out they needed to RUN the ball into the forward region, ending with just 10 marks inside 50 of their fifty-three inside 50s.)
And the upset of the round, unless you really believe in the hardest working team in the league: the Western Bulldogs, who amazed the unbeaten Adelaide Crows 125-68! Despite having more than fifty more possessions than the Crows, the Bulldogs still out-tackled them by eighteen! Already leading 69-35 at the half, the Doggies ran off thirty-four more points in a row to close out the third quarter. Suddenly, Western's got a 3-1 record, sitting comfortably inside the top eight, and looking like they may STAY there for awhile!
Monday, April 20, 2015
AFL's Week 3 results...
Collingwood 140, St. Kilda 66... The Saints started strong, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with almost anyone in the AFL.
Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.
Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.
Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.
Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.
Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.
Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.
Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.
Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.
Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.
Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.
Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.
Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.
Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.
Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.
Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.
Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.
Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.
Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.
Monday, April 13, 2015
AFL Week 2 in Review/Preview Week 3
What a wild week of footy! Here are the game results from this weekend just concluded...
West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.
Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.
GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.
Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.
St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.
Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.
Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!
Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.
North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond.
THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS -
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.
West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.
Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.
GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.
Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.
St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.
Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.
Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!
Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.
North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond.
THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS -
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
..and AFL Week Two In Preview!
...and here are the match-ups for Week Two!
Fri) Carlton at West Coast
West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.
Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.
Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!
Adelaide at Collingwood
On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.
Sydney at Port Adelaide
This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!
St. Kilda at Gold Coast
On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.
Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.
Hawthorn at Essendon
Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.
Brisbane at North Melbourne
Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.
Fri) Carlton at West Coast
West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.
Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.
Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!
Adelaide at Collingwood
On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.
Sydney at Port Adelaide
This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!
St. Kilda at Gold Coast
On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.
Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.
Hawthorn at Essendon
Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.
Brisbane at North Melbourne
Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.
AFL Week One In Review...
Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:
Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78 (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)
Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:
Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78 (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)
Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:
| Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2 | 87.1 |
| Sydney Swans (1-0) #5 | 74.5 |
| Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10 | 72.1 |
| Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1 | 70.7 |
| Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9 | 69.5 |
| Geelong Cats (0-1) #17 | 57.9 |
| N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18 | 55.6 |
| West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12 | 55.6 |
| Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3 | 55.1 |
| Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13 | 52.5 |
| Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15 | 42.2 |
| Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6 | 37.3 |
| Carlton Blues (0-1) #16 | 36.4 |
| Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7 | 35.2 |
| GWS Giants (1-0) #8 | 31.0 |
| Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14 | 29.9 |
| Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4 | 26.0 |
| St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11 | 11.4 |
Saturday, April 4, 2015
This is an AMAZING video!
Peter Dickson created an amazing view of the 2014 AFL Grand Final through the eyes of two random fans, good friends, one who roots for Hawthorn and one for Sydney.
If you like the work NFL Films does, you'll LOVE this one!
Also, the AFL film folks premiered a piece on the world as seen through the eyes of footy superstar Gary Ablett Jr of the Gold Coast Suns - not having Australian television, I haven't seen it yet, but a short version was posted on the AFL website that looks like they did a remarkable job putting it together!
If you like the work NFL Films does, you'll LOVE this one!
Also, the AFL film folks premiered a piece on the world as seen through the eyes of footy superstar Gary Ablett Jr of the Gold Coast Suns - not having Australian television, I haven't seen it yet, but a short version was posted on the AFL website that looks like they did a remarkable job putting it together!
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)
Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy!
Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...
Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2
Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4
GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5
Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6
We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!
Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...
Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2
Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4
GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5
Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6
We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Essendon Footy players CLEARED of all doping charges
The 34 players involved in the AFL doping scandal at the Essendon Bombers footy club in 2012 have all been cleared of wrongdoing by the Australian Sports Anti-Drug Agency (ASADA), and are free of any sanctions, suspensions, or other penalties that would have been handed down had the tribunal found otherwise.
That group includes a massive number from Essendon itself, so many that the Dons have been preparing retired players and minor leaguers in case their roster was decimated by a guilty verdict today. It also includes stars Angus Monfries from Port Adelaide and Stewart Crameri of the Western Bulldogs, both of whom had moved on from the club since 2012.
Here are a slough of articles from AFL.com.au that hit the topic from all angles:
Thirty-four present and former Essendon players cleared of all wrong-doing.
Here's a blow-by-blow of the day's events coming out of the courtroom, plus the reactions around the sport...
The actual statement from the ASADA tribunal...
A very important detail, in my opinion: the repenting of Essendon head coach James Hird, who in any reckoning of this sorrowful tale is guilty of no less than atrocious judgment, if not far worse.
The reaction of the players involved, like superstar and Brownlow medal winner Jobe Watson, whose comments include, "I'd forgotten what it was like to play and not have this dark cloud over my head."
Where the Essendon club goes from here...specifically, into round one on Sunday against the powerhouse Sydney Swans.
The statement of Essendon chairman Paul Little, hoping for an end to the nightmare.
And the final word on the subject (from our perspective), from AFL president/CEO Gillan McLaughlin, hoping that there won't be any appeals and that the league and its personnel can get on with the business of playing footy again.
From my perspective, here's what it means: The tribunals got this right. This was not (from all reports) a player-driven cheating scandal, like the Americans Lance Armstrong or Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez. The players involved were given supplements, not unlike the league-approved vitamins and medicines they are often given for strength and pain-relief and the like. This was a club-driven program, with the people who ran the show in the wrong: trainer, coach, and so forth. The penalty for the head medico is still coming sometime in April, but the coach served a one-year ban (I'm not sure it shouldn't have been longer), the club was banished from the playoffs (one week before they started - an unprecedented hammer!) and paid a $2M fine, and the penalties for the others involved from the administrative end seem, from this distance, to have been punitive enough. The players were victims, and the tribunal saw that.
And now, it's time to move on - for Essendon, and for footy.
That group includes a massive number from Essendon itself, so many that the Dons have been preparing retired players and minor leaguers in case their roster was decimated by a guilty verdict today. It also includes stars Angus Monfries from Port Adelaide and Stewart Crameri of the Western Bulldogs, both of whom had moved on from the club since 2012.
Here are a slough of articles from AFL.com.au that hit the topic from all angles:
Thirty-four present and former Essendon players cleared of all wrong-doing.
Here's a blow-by-blow of the day's events coming out of the courtroom, plus the reactions around the sport...
The actual statement from the ASADA tribunal...
A very important detail, in my opinion: the repenting of Essendon head coach James Hird, who in any reckoning of this sorrowful tale is guilty of no less than atrocious judgment, if not far worse.
The reaction of the players involved, like superstar and Brownlow medal winner Jobe Watson, whose comments include, "I'd forgotten what it was like to play and not have this dark cloud over my head."
Where the Essendon club goes from here...specifically, into round one on Sunday against the powerhouse Sydney Swans.
The statement of Essendon chairman Paul Little, hoping for an end to the nightmare.
And the final word on the subject (from our perspective), from AFL president/CEO Gillan McLaughlin, hoping that there won't be any appeals and that the league and its personnel can get on with the business of playing footy again.
From my perspective, here's what it means: The tribunals got this right. This was not (from all reports) a player-driven cheating scandal, like the Americans Lance Armstrong or Barry Bonds or Alex Rodriguez. The players involved were given supplements, not unlike the league-approved vitamins and medicines they are often given for strength and pain-relief and the like. This was a club-driven program, with the people who ran the show in the wrong: trainer, coach, and so forth. The penalty for the head medico is still coming sometime in April, but the coach served a one-year ban (I'm not sure it shouldn't have been longer), the club was banished from the playoffs (one week before they started - an unprecedented hammer!) and paid a $2M fine, and the penalties for the others involved from the administrative end seem, from this distance, to have been punitive enough. The players were victims, and the tribunal saw that.
And now, it's time to move on - for Essendon, and for footy.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)