Showing posts with label Baylor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baylor. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
"Big 12 expansion is not just a possibility..."
Not that it's going to happen just yet, but here's an article from a visit with OU president David Boren, laying out the timetable (in the next ten years) for the expansion of the Big 12 back to (at least) 12 - expansion which "is not just a possibility, but an inevitability" for the long-term survival of the league.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?
Yes. Yes it is.
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...
1. Ohio State 11. Stanford 21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor 12. Ole Miss 22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn 13. Arizona 23. BYU
4. Alabama 14. USC 24. LSU
5. Michigan St 15. Boise State 25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU 16. Clemson 26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame 17. Missouri 27. Utah
8. UCLA 18. Georgia 28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St 19. Arizona St 29. Texas
10. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 30. Michigan
I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)
But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!
Hello, point-shaving possibilities!
The Big 12 now has a tiebreaking formula in case Baylor and TCU tie again at 8-1...unfortunately, it has a hint of disaster lurking underneath it in the case of a three way tie... check out this link.
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Good review of where the colleges are...
As is often the case, ESPN is on top of the college spring practice scene, and more importantly, where teams are leaning as we look ahead to the fall. This piece by their Pac-12 man (and college go-to-guy!) Ted Miller does a great job surveying the landscape and looking at the BIG PICTURE in FBS football, as of March 2015!
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Also, Heather Dinich writes a really great piece about where the current thinking is regarding out-of-conference scheduling - why the Big 12 schools are taking a risk (SMU, Lamar, and Rice? Really, Baylor?), while the Big Ten has the right idea (in my mind) with their 1910 plan - 1 major non-conference game, 9 conference games, 1 championship game, 0 FCS patsies scheduled.
Perfect.
No one's demanding you play a top ten school every week, big boys. Remember, there is no preseason in college football. Your first warm-up game counts! When Boise played "at" Ole Miss in August last year and lost, that game counted against them - it took a semi-perfect run of the table in October and November to get them back into New Year's Six contention. You lose that first game, you're in trouble - so if your first game is against the Little Sisters Of The Poor, Ohio State, I'll grant you that.
Just not the other two non-cons, okay? Play real teams.
Finally, there's a nice piece (also by Heather Dinich) which discusses the College Football Playoff system's successes and failures last year with the movers and shakers, decides that the former far outweighs the latter (and that they were burned by the constant 'tinkering' of the BCS formats), and that there won't be any changes in the near future to the CFP process. Four teams. Committee, some advance polls (maybe slight adjustments as to the when and how often), and no changes. The key word in the article is patience.
Sunday, January 18, 2015
The best and worst games of the year in college football
Sports Illustrated does a tremendous job of compiling their list of the 25 best and ten worst games of the FBS season (thereby excluding Savannah State, Davidson, Columbia, and other infamous 1-AA programs from the latter list, mercifully).
In the top 25, the obvious winner is indeed the most pivotal game of the regular season: Baylor 61, TCU 58, although the national championship game and both semifinals made the list as well. Some of my favorite games of the season show up as well, like the East Carolina unrealistically surprising conference championship over UCF, the WILD Western Kentucky/Central Michigan Bahamas Bowl (and WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall), the Cal/Wazzu statistical menagerie, Arizona's Hail Mary over Cal and Arizona State's over USC, and Michigan State's comeback over Baylor
Meanwhile, there's also no argument with the "winner" of the Bottom Ten, a game I was "blessed" to have seen all five quarters of: Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3. Somehow, the only team that defeated the eventual national champions (IN COLUMBUS, no less) also lost to the worst-ranked Power Five conference team in the country. An impressive double, Hokies! The list also includes both of Florida's most horrific performances, the Arkansas demolition of Texas in the bowl game where only one team showed up; the Georgia Tech rout of Pitt where the Panthers gave up five fumbles in their first thirteen plays; and the ridiculous Michigan/Northwestern game in which the rain added to the pathetic showing.
In the top 25, the obvious winner is indeed the most pivotal game of the regular season: Baylor 61, TCU 58, although the national championship game and both semifinals made the list as well. Some of my favorite games of the season show up as well, like the East Carolina unrealistically surprising conference championship over UCF, the WILD Western Kentucky/Central Michigan Bahamas Bowl (and WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall), the Cal/Wazzu statistical menagerie, Arizona's Hail Mary over Cal and Arizona State's over USC, and Michigan State's comeback over Baylor
Meanwhile, there's also no argument with the "winner" of the Bottom Ten, a game I was "blessed" to have seen all five quarters of: Wake Forest 6, Virginia Tech 3. Somehow, the only team that defeated the eventual national champions (IN COLUMBUS, no less) also lost to the worst-ranked Power Five conference team in the country. An impressive double, Hokies! The list also includes both of Florida's most horrific performances, the Arkansas demolition of Texas in the bowl game where only one team showed up; the Georgia Tech rout of Pitt where the Panthers gave up five fumbles in their first thirteen plays; and the ridiculous Michigan/Northwestern game in which the rain added to the pathetic showing.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
The final AP poll for 2014 (compared to ours!)
Here's Dr. Saturday's Nick Bromberg and his article on the final AP poll of the year. There are several interesting rankings to notice...
> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).
> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them.
> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23.
Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:
AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis
And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...
> TCU is ranked third, despite not making the playoff. To their credit, they had TCU up to or near third before the playoff (we had them fifth, so we've left them fifth).
> Georgia Tech is indeed one spot ahead of Georgia, but Boise St is a spot ahead of Ole Miss, who beat them soundly on a (theoretically) neutral field at the beginning of the year. Is that significant? Even as a Bronco fan, I'd have reversed them.
> Marshall wasn't in the previous top 25, but they finished the year as #23.
Here are the Following Football final rankings, as well as the AP poll for comparison:
| 1. Ohio St (AP #1) |
| 2. Oregon (AP #2) |
| 3. Alabama (AP #4) |
| 4. Florida St (AP #5tie) |
| 5. TCU (AP #3) |
| 6. Michigan St(AP#5tie) |
| 7. Baylor (AP #7) |
| 8. Georgia Tech (AP #8) |
| 9. Miss St (AP #11) |
| 10. Georgia (AP #9) |
| 11. UCLA (AP #10) |
| 12. Ole Miss (AP #17) |
| 13. Missouri (AP #14) |
| 14. Kansas St (AP #18) |
| 15. Clemson (AP #15) |
| 16. Wisconsin (AP #13) |
| 17. Auburn (AP #22) |
| 18. Boise St (AP #16) |
| 19. Arizona St (AP #12) |
| 20. USC (AP #20) |
| 21. Arizona (AP #19) |
| 22. LSU |
| 23. Utah (AP #21) |
| 24. Texas A&M |
| 25. Stanford |
AP #23. Marshall
AP #24. Louisville
AP #25. Memphis
And if you're REALLY ambitious and looking ahead to 2015, check out Mark Schlabach's "way-too-early Top 25" for next fall from ESPN, where TCU, Ohio St, and Baylor make up the top 3 (none of whom are SEC teams! Gasp!)...
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
This weekend's predictions...
As we hit the home stretch, there are just nine games left on the American football calendar - six of which hit this weekend!
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
The FCS Championship Game is in legendary Frisco, Texas this Saturday, and pits the defending champion North Dakota State Bison (14-1) against the Illinois State Redbirds (13-1).
Regardless of who wins, Northern Iowa is going to declare themselves the TRUE national champ, as they're the only team who beat BOTH of these combatants!
Vegas doesn't set lines on any college games except the FBS, but the Sagarin board has the Bison as a favorite by about 4 1/2 points. (Both teams would be all the way up into the "receiving votes" category: Illinois State falls in the #41 spot of all 252 division 1 teams (FBS and FCS combined), and NDSU actually ranks #32, above more famous teams like West Virginia, Arizona, Duke, Miami (FL) and Penn State!
Here at Following Football, we're also projecting a repeat for the three-time defenders from Fargo, but the Redbirds will be the stiffest test they've faced (UNI excluded, I suppose, although they weren't expected to be such a challenge). We'll go along with a 4.5 point line.
In the NFL, the two games on the weekend project as home team victories, but "that's why they play the game!", as they drone... New England is a 7 point favorite over Baltimore, according to Vegas and Sagarin; FF has them at about 7.5 points, adding the bye week advantage in as well. As for Seattle and Carolina, Vegas has the 'Hawks at 10.5 up, Sagarin at 13 up, and we list them at 9.5 point favorites. Regardless, it'll be an upset if either of the home teams fail to advance.
Sunday's games hold a bit more interest, although Following Football's biggest betting mantra is that the safest bet in football is the bye-week home team in the Divisional Round. Dallas heads to Green Bay in hopes of breaking that trend, but they're 6.5 point underdogs at the casinos, four-plus point 'dogs on Sagarin, and we have them as 5.5 point deficient. But on all those scales, the Cowboys are still the most likely road team to win this weekend; Dallas is the only road team among the five Tier A teams on our scale.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis goes to visit its old quarterback again, with Denver a 7 point favorite in Vegas, 4.5 on Sagarin, and a six point favorite with us. The thrill of Peyton Manning going bonkers against his old secondary becomes secondary (b-dm-cha!) to the thrill of the playoffs!
Finally, on Monday night, we get the first College Football Playoff National Championship game, sponsored by everyone on the planet who hated the BCS...don't look past the fact that neither Oregon nor Ohio State would have BEEN here under the BCS system! Certainly Florida State would have been included (defending champ, undefeated), and the top ranked school under durn near EVERY grading system except ours was Alabama. Last year, they would have played for the title, and Ohio State (59-0 winners over Wisconsin), Oregon (51-13 winners against Arizona), TCU (42-3 over Ole Miss), and Baylor (61-58 over TCU!) would have all had reasons to whine. TCU is STILL going to whine, but we're not an advocate of an eight team playoff, frankly. I got bored of the FCS playoffs after the second round - I don't think three rounds of FCS playoffs are a good idea, either. BESIDES, if all you need to do is win your Power Conference, the point of beefing up non-conference schedules goes away. FOUR TEAMS IS FINE.
ANYWAY...the Vegas line on the game is Oregon by six; Sagarin, on the other hand, favors Ohio State by half a point! At FF, we see it as a good game as well: right now, they're teams A1 and A2, which puts them in virtually a dead heat. I see Oregon as a slight favorite (which is why they're in the A1 slot), but I would NOT bet on this game! We'll call it Oregon by 1.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
It's college bowl season - continued!
Here's week two of the FBS bowl season, from Dec 27 onwards (see our previous post for the first week's predictions), from ESPN, Sagarin, Vegas, and Following Football:
Dec 27 ESPN Sagarin Vegas Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech: Cinc by 6 Cinc by 0.2 Cinc by 3 Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St: ASU by 4 ASU by 6.6 ASU by 7.5 ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina: Mia by 7 SC by 0.3 Mia by 3 SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St PSU by 3 BC by 3 BC by 2.5 BC by 2
Nebraska v USC: USC by 11 USC by 2.1 USC by 6.5 USC by 1
Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia A&M by 1 A&M by 2.0 WV by 3.5 A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson: OU by 11 OU by 5.6 OU by 3 OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas: Ark by 7 Ark by 12.4 Ark by 6 Ark by 1
Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU: LSU by 3 LSU by 12.7 LSU by 7 LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville: Lou by 4 UGA by 11.5 UGA by 6.5 UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford: Stan by 14 Stan by 11.2 Stan by 14 Stan by 6
Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU: TCU by 3 TCU by 1.4 TCU by 3 TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona: Ariz by 3 Ariz by 5.2 Ariz by 3.5 Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech: GT by 4 MSU by 10.2 MSU by 6.5 MSU by 1
Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin: Aub by 7 Aub by 10.3 Aub by 6.5 Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor: Bay by 7 Bay by 4.6 Bay by 3 Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota: Mizz by 4 Mizz by 6.4 Mizz by 5 Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon: Ore by 11 Ore by 9.7 Ore by 9 Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama: Ala by 7 Ala by 4.3 Ala by 9.5 Ala by 3
Jan 2
Pitt v Houston: Pitt by 4 Pitt by 3.1 Pitt by 3 Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee: Tenn by 11 Tenn by 6.3 Tenn by 3.5 Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA: KSU by 3 KSU by 5 KSU by 3 KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St: UW by 14 UW by 5 UW by 5.5 UW by 7
Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida: ECU by 4 Fla by 13.6 Fla by 7 Fla by 4
Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St: Toledo by 4 ArkSt by 0.3 Toledo by 3 Toledo by 1
Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.
Dec 27 ESPN Sagarin Vegas Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech: Cinc by 6 Cinc by 0.2 Cinc by 3 Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St: ASU by 4 ASU by 6.6 ASU by 7.5 ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina: Mia by 7 SC by 0.3 Mia by 3 SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St PSU by 3 BC by 3 BC by 2.5 BC by 2
Nebraska v USC: USC by 11 USC by 2.1 USC by 6.5 USC by 1
Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia A&M by 1 A&M by 2.0 WV by 3.5 A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson: OU by 11 OU by 5.6 OU by 3 OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas: Ark by 7 Ark by 12.4 Ark by 6 Ark by 1
Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU: LSU by 3 LSU by 12.7 LSU by 7 LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville: Lou by 4 UGA by 11.5 UGA by 6.5 UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford: Stan by 14 Stan by 11.2 Stan by 14 Stan by 6
Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU: TCU by 3 TCU by 1.4 TCU by 3 TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona: Ariz by 3 Ariz by 5.2 Ariz by 3.5 Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech: GT by 4 MSU by 10.2 MSU by 6.5 MSU by 1
Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin: Aub by 7 Aub by 10.3 Aub by 6.5 Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor: Bay by 7 Bay by 4.6 Bay by 3 Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota: Mizz by 4 Mizz by 6.4 Mizz by 5 Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon: Ore by 11 Ore by 9.7 Ore by 9 Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama: Ala by 7 Ala by 4.3 Ala by 9.5 Ala by 3
Jan 2
Pitt v Houston: Pitt by 4 Pitt by 3.1 Pitt by 3 Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee: Tenn by 11 Tenn by 6.3 Tenn by 3.5 Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA: KSU by 3 KSU by 5 KSU by 3 KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St: UW by 14 UW by 5 UW by 5.5 UW by 7
Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida: ECU by 4 Fla by 13.6 Fla by 7 Fla by 4
Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St: Toledo by 4 ArkSt by 0.3 Toledo by 3 Toledo by 1
Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
New Year's Six bowl games in progress!
JAN 1 UPDATE: Watching three really great bowl games simultaneously: Wisconsin finding a way to come back and defeat Auburn 34-31, using a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon running wild, as he has against everyone except Playoff contenders, it seems...Minnesota's Maxx Williams hurdling Missouri players en route to a touchdown...Baylor's Bryce Petty throwing touchdowns to targets large and small, including a 400-pound target "wearing" a receiver's number as a half shirt!
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
Monday, December 8, 2014
Hey, Big 12! The problem is NOT your lack of a title game!
We would like to respectfully disagree with the pundits and talking heads who are making that "pivotal thirteenth game" the reason neither TCU nor Baylor are out there preparing for the first college playoff.
That's not the problem, boys.
The problem, frankly, was the way you tried to jack the system.
The Big 12 had a system in place for determining a champion. It was in their by-laws. It's still on their website. If you watch college football on television, you know what it was... head-to-head:
"Ten Teams...Nine Games...One True Champion."
Unless, of course, that system would have made Baylor the true champion, when the committee had made clear on December 2 that TCU was their darling. They were afraid that if TCU wasn't a conference champion, as the committee's rules said was fearfully important (and you know how important existing rules are!), the Frogs would get locked out at the last minute.
So, they cheated. At the expense of their own member school, Baylor.
Under the long-standing rules of the Big 12, the team with the best head-to-head record among those tied for the lead at the end of the season is the "One True Champion". Since Baylor outscored TCU 61-58 when they played earlier this year, Baylor would therefore be the champion.
Can't have that, can we?
So, they hastily amended their rules: All teams with equal conference won-loss records are co-champions.
TA-DA! Now, TCU's a conference champion. And, conveniently, so's Baylor, if they happen to have the chance to pass Ohio St (underdogs to the Badgers, if you can believe that now) or Florida St (always a threat to lose, even if they never do). I'm sure the Big 12 bigwigs patted each other on the back for their extreme cleverness.
And I've never been prouder of a committee in my life. For when they met this weekend, I'd lay odds now that they looked at each other and started the conversation with, I sure hope we can take the other four conference champs after the Big 12 pulled THAT stunt this week...
Would they have left both of them out if one of the other four had lost? No, almost certainly not. Would they have bent the rules to fit their mood, as the Big 12 had done? Certainly not. But I'll wager that, deep in their secret heart, they're all happy with the message that was sent.
We are the Supreme Court of FBS football. Don't mess with us. ("Mess" isn't the work I want, but I'm a Christian and this is a family website.)
Ohio State made it easy for them, of course, by annihilating a top 15 team with their third string QB 59-0. Their own statement of "we start fresh every week" works to their advantage as well; moving TCU from 3rd to 6th wasn't so crazy then.
SO....
Does the Big 12 need a conference title game? NO. (This was more interesting.)
Does it need better non-conference scheduling. YES. Vehemently, YES.
Did the CFP Committee send them a message?
Depends on whether they understand it or not...
That's not the problem, boys.
The problem, frankly, was the way you tried to jack the system.
The Big 12 had a system in place for determining a champion. It was in their by-laws. It's still on their website. If you watch college football on television, you know what it was... head-to-head:
"Ten Teams...Nine Games...One True Champion."
Unless, of course, that system would have made Baylor the true champion, when the committee had made clear on December 2 that TCU was their darling. They were afraid that if TCU wasn't a conference champion, as the committee's rules said was fearfully important (and you know how important existing rules are!), the Frogs would get locked out at the last minute.
So, they cheated. At the expense of their own member school, Baylor.
Under the long-standing rules of the Big 12, the team with the best head-to-head record among those tied for the lead at the end of the season is the "One True Champion". Since Baylor outscored TCU 61-58 when they played earlier this year, Baylor would therefore be the champion.
Can't have that, can we?
So, they hastily amended their rules: All teams with equal conference won-loss records are co-champions.
TA-DA! Now, TCU's a conference champion. And, conveniently, so's Baylor, if they happen to have the chance to pass Ohio St (underdogs to the Badgers, if you can believe that now) or Florida St (always a threat to lose, even if they never do). I'm sure the Big 12 bigwigs patted each other on the back for their extreme cleverness.
And I've never been prouder of a committee in my life. For when they met this weekend, I'd lay odds now that they looked at each other and started the conversation with, I sure hope we can take the other four conference champs after the Big 12 pulled THAT stunt this week...
Would they have left both of them out if one of the other four had lost? No, almost certainly not. Would they have bent the rules to fit their mood, as the Big 12 had done? Certainly not. But I'll wager that, deep in their secret heart, they're all happy with the message that was sent.
We are the Supreme Court of FBS football. Don't mess with us. ("Mess" isn't the work I want, but I'm a Christian and this is a family website.)
Ohio State made it easy for them, of course, by annihilating a top 15 team with their third string QB 59-0. Their own statement of "we start fresh every week" works to their advantage as well; moving TCU from 3rd to 6th wasn't so crazy then.
SO....
Does the Big 12 need a conference title game? NO. (This was more interesting.)
Does it need better non-conference scheduling. YES. Vehemently, YES.
Did the CFP Committee send them a message?
Depends on whether they understand it or not...
Sunday, December 7, 2014
The fourth team in is indeed OHIO STATE.
So, in the end, the committee proved the truth about something they've said all season long...
They start fresh every week.
So much for TCU being "locked in" at three, as somebody on this blog said all week. In the end, the College Football Playoff Committee put the top six teams in the right order...
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida St
4. Ohio St
5. Baylor
6. TCU
Personally, despite the head-to-head argument, I think TCU is better than Baylor, but by the written criteria of the committee, Baylor HAS to be in front of the Frogs. And THAT is the crux of the matter in many minds - the Big 12 tried to jimmy the system to get one team, or even two, into the playoff; instead, they have none. Probably cost them about six million in bonus money, not to mention reputation.
Saddest of all is this quote from Max Olsen of ESPN..
They start fresh every week.
So much for TCU being "locked in" at three, as somebody on this blog said all week. In the end, the College Football Playoff Committee put the top six teams in the right order...
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida St
4. Ohio St
5. Baylor
6. TCU
Personally, despite the head-to-head argument, I think TCU is better than Baylor, but by the written criteria of the committee, Baylor HAS to be in front of the Frogs. And THAT is the crux of the matter in many minds - the Big 12 tried to jimmy the system to get one team, or even two, into the playoff; instead, they have none. Probably cost them about six million in bonus money, not to mention reputation.
Saddest of all is this quote from Max Olsen of ESPN..
Baylor fans I'm watching with had louder reaction to being ahead of TCU than of being left out.
Pity. While the Big 12 eats its own, Ohio St made an amazingly definitive case last night that they had the BEST chance to actually challenge 'Bama or Oregon.
Brad Edwards, who was the BCS computer guru for ESPN for many years, confirms that even under the old system would've had the same four, albeit in a different order (and it would've been OU left out of the title game, BTW):
Brad Edwards, who was the BCS computer guru for ESPN for many years, confirms that even under the old system would've had the same four, albeit in a different order (and it would've been OU left out of the title game, BTW):
Brad Edwards
Saturday, December 6, 2014
So, let's assume Boise finishes off Fresno tonight...
...(and it's 28-0 in the third quarter), what will our "final" FF tier-rankings look like? And, therefore, what do WE think the big bowls should look like when they're announced tomorrow?
Rank Team Conf Rec Conf rec
Rank Team Conf Rec Conf rec
| A1 | Oregon | pac | 12-1 | 9-1 |
| A2 | Alabama | sec | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| A3 | Florida St | acc | 13-0 | 9-0 |
| A4 | Ohio St | b10 | 12-1 | 9-0 |
| A5 | TCU | b12 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| A6 | Baylor | b12 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| B07 | Mississippi St | sec | 10-2 | 6-2 |
| B08 | Michigan St | b10 | 10-2 | 7-1 |
| B09 | Georgia Tech | acc | 10-3 | 6-3 |
| B10 | Ole Miss | sec | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| B11 | Kansas St | b12 | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| B12 | Auburn | sec | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| C13 | LSU | sec | 8-4 | 4-4 |
| C14 | Georgia | sec | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| C15 | Missouri | sec | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| C16 | Arizona | pac | 10-3 | 7-3 |
| C17 | UCLA | pac | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| C18 | Arizona St | pac | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| D19 | Oklahoma | b12 | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| D20 | Wisconsin | b10 | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| D21 | Clemson | acc | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| D22 | USC | pac | 8-4 | 6-3 |
| D23 | Boise St | mw | 11-2 | 8-1 |
| D24 | Minnesota | b10 | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| E25 | Nebraska | b10 | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E26 | Louisville | acc | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E27 | Texas A&M | sec | 7-5 | 3-5 |
| E28 | Arkansas | sec | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| E29 | Duke | acc | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E30 | Colorado St | mw | 10-2 | 6-2 |
We did what we suspect the committee MIGHT do (DESPITE all of OUR protests to the contrary over the last five days!) and LEAPFROG Ohio St over TCU (as we said, no matter what the committee's rankings said, Florida St was safe with a win, or there would be a nationwide manhunt for dead committee members).
We saw Ohio St take their third-string quarterback and do the same thing to freak'n Wisconsin that the Frogs did to 2-10 Iowa St, at home nonetheless... It's completely conceivable that the committee put OSU five so that if they were to win weakly with a backup at QB (the SAME backup they'd have in the playoffs), they could leave them OUT of the playoff with impunity.
Here's another factor we take seriously here as Christians; it remains to be seen if it comes into play tomorrow. The Big Twelve blatantly changed its own rules last week to try to sneak TCU into the playoff. Despite their rules (ratified THIS SUMMER!) saying that head-to-head alone decided the conference champ, they knew the committee had insisted that conference champions would get first priority. Without the change, TCU was NOT a conference champ. Now they are. POOF! We are hopeful that a committee with people like Condoleeza Rice on it is ethical enough not to reward that kind of chicanery. Ohio St is an authentic conference champion. (So are Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St.) There's your four playoff teams. DONE.
What about the other bowls?
Automatic bids: Baylor (Big 12 champion, by the 'real' definition), and Boise St (Group of Five highest ranked champion).
Next teams in: TCU, Mississippi St, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, and Kansas St. (Your mileage may vary. These teams are much more subject to flux, as are their bowl placements.)
Bowl placements (the other four are best guess only):
Sugar Bowl (playoff): Florida St (#3) v. Alabama (#2)
Rose Bowl (playoff): Ohio St (#4) v. Oregon (#1)
[As an aside, the B1G, Pac-12, and SEC champs go to their "traditional" sites. Dumb luck.]
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) v. Baylor (Big12 champ)
Fiesta Bowl: Boise St (Group of 5) v. Kansas St (Big 12)
Cotton Bowl: TCU (Big12) v. Ole Miss (SEC)
Peach Bowl: Mississippi St (SEC) v Michigan St (Big 10)
SO? What do you think? We'll post the other #31-128 in a separate post momentarily...
Thoughts from championship Saturday....
As the game between TCU and Iowa St is reaching its 55-3 conclusion, with the Horned Frogs having made their statement to the playoff committee, two tweets retweeted by TCU reporter Stefan Stevenson caught our eye. The first remarks on the ethics of coach Gary Patterson:
- #Classystylepoints "@calexmendez: TCU has 55 points, kneeled on a fourth-and-goal at the 6.... with 4:05 to go."
- Immediately thereafter, the opposing viewpoint, or at least ONE opposing thought, was presented:
Reply
Retweet
Favorite- Yep. "@byjoelanderson: If I played for Iowa State, I'd be way more offended that they treated us like a Make-A-Wish squad."
As we discussed Tuesday night, the committee has already made their decision, and 55-3 isn't going to give them any reason to change their minds... TCU will be in the playoff.
Congratulations to the SMU Mustangs! After the season from hell, in which their coach quit on them, two games in; in which game after game, their opponents have dominated them on both sides of the ball; in which, on the one occasion that they looked like should win, South Florida drove the field for a touchdown, made them punt, and then finished the game with a ridiculous 21-play, eight-minute, three 4th down conversion drive that ended with a six yard touchdown pass on fourth down with six seconds to play to win 14-13...after all of that, they finally came up with a fourth quarter score to break a 20-all tie and defeat conference foe Connecticut 27-20. They end the season 1-11, break a thirteen game losing streak, and prevent the 2014 season from having a winless season this year.
Think about this: The 1-11 SMU Mustangs will enter the 2015 season on a longer winning streak than THREE of the four playoff teams will!
Good on you, Oklahoma St! On a five-game losing streak, down 35-21 to their Bedlam rivals Oklahoma, it would have been easy and understandable to simply let down and give in. Instead, they scored a touchdown, stopped the Sooners, and ran a punt return back to tie the game and send it on to overtime, where they just kicked a field goal to not only upset their rivals but become bowl eligible.
The FCS playoffs are in the Round of Sixteen, and besides the Sam Houston St upset of Jacksonville St (that we predicted, thank you!), the home teams have rolled. Except for the defending champs, North Dakota St, who hosted their cross-border rivals from South Dakota St. The game was neck and neck, and SDSU moved ahead 24-20 with just over three minutes to go. The Bison did what all great teams do - they showed their greatness by driving the length of the field when they HAD to, scored that must-have touchdown with a perfect pass with fifty-four seconds to go, and intercepted the first pass SDSU threw to seal the victory.
Hard to argue with the shows that three of the four CFP top four teams put on over the last twenty-four hours: we talked about TCU's victory, but Alabama and Oregon both won conference championships at neutral sites over division title winners with disarming ease. Last night, the Ducks avenged their only loss by annihilating Arizona 51-13, with Marcus Mariota clinching his impending Heisman Trophy win with five TDs with his arm and his legs. This afternoon, the Crimson Tide rolled over Missouri, 42-13, with Blake Sims confirming his coaches' faith in him when they surprised folks by naming him the starter. Now, it's up to defending champion Florida St to complete the picture tonight by beating the teams they beat exactly two years ago to start their 28-game winning streak, the Georgia Tech. If they win, the committee WILL NOT remove them from the playoffs. It just won't happen! But if they LOSE, they're gone. Period. Then,...who? Ohio St? Baylor? Both have tough games (Wisconsin and Kansas St, respectively) that they'll have to win to give the committee the opportunity to move them up into the four-spot.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Okay, so what is the CFP Committee telling us tonight?
First of all, if this were LAST year, we would be busy arguing over which of Alabama, Oregon, or Florida St we would be leaving OUT of this BCS Championship Game! So, none of that, "things were better with the BCS" baloney!
So instead, we all agree that you can't leave an undefeated, defending champion Seminole team out of the playoff. We agree that Alabama is the consensus best team in the land, and as winners of three of the last five titles, they have to be in it, too. And if the dominant team in the second strongest conference, consensus top four, the most potent offensive force in the country isn't there, then there will always be co-champions. So three spots are locked in.
Who's number four?
The committee has made its choice, and they've made it abundantly clear tonight who it is. Understand, they're NOT going to leave Florida St out. But by moving the TCU Horned Frogs AHEAD of them, they're making the statement that TCU is SAFE. They're cushioned from their pursuers by an impenetrable, unbeaten, seemingly unbeatable Seminole wall of protection. Only if THEY lose (or Oregon, or maybe Alabama if it's badly enough) will Ohio St or Baylor have a chance.
Oh, by the way, message number two? The Buckeyes lost their quarterback...and they're STILL placed ahead of the Bears. Baylor WILL NOT PASS TCU. Why not? Because, in the eyes of the committee (and ours, by the way, and at least one if not two members of ESPN's talking heads presenting the rankings tonight), Baylor has one loss, to 7-5 West Virginia, and TCU's only blemish (61-58 at Baylor two months ago) was by three points on the road (which is the exact spread for home field advantage) to a Tier A team under (let's be honest here) frighteningly suspicious circumstances, which we discussed in this blog at that time. They, like us, barely consider that a loss; it was a "push", at best. We could argue the fact that TCU's resume, including a third victory over a winning team (Minnesota), makes them better. We could argue the 'eye test' - they simply LOOK better than Baylor or OSU. But the fact is, their loss was at best extremely close, and at worst highly suspect. Neither Ohio St nor Baylor can make that claim. THAT'S what the committee said tonight. "Nothing the Buckeyes or (especially) the Bears do this weekend matters - barring a loss by a top four team, we've MADE our selections."
So instead, we all agree that you can't leave an undefeated, defending champion Seminole team out of the playoff. We agree that Alabama is the consensus best team in the land, and as winners of three of the last five titles, they have to be in it, too. And if the dominant team in the second strongest conference, consensus top four, the most potent offensive force in the country isn't there, then there will always be co-champions. So three spots are locked in.
Who's number four?
The committee has made its choice, and they've made it abundantly clear tonight who it is. Understand, they're NOT going to leave Florida St out. But by moving the TCU Horned Frogs AHEAD of them, they're making the statement that TCU is SAFE. They're cushioned from their pursuers by an impenetrable, unbeaten, seemingly unbeatable Seminole wall of protection. Only if THEY lose (or Oregon, or maybe Alabama if it's badly enough) will Ohio St or Baylor have a chance.
Oh, by the way, message number two? The Buckeyes lost their quarterback...and they're STILL placed ahead of the Bears. Baylor WILL NOT PASS TCU. Why not? Because, in the eyes of the committee (and ours, by the way, and at least one if not two members of ESPN's talking heads presenting the rankings tonight), Baylor has one loss, to 7-5 West Virginia, and TCU's only blemish (61-58 at Baylor two months ago) was by three points on the road (which is the exact spread for home field advantage) to a Tier A team under (let's be honest here) frighteningly suspicious circumstances, which we discussed in this blog at that time. They, like us, barely consider that a loss; it was a "push", at best. We could argue the fact that TCU's resume, including a third victory over a winning team (Minnesota), makes them better. We could argue the 'eye test' - they simply LOOK better than Baylor or OSU. But the fact is, their loss was at best extremely close, and at worst highly suspect. Neither Ohio St nor Baylor can make that claim. THAT'S what the committee said tonight. "Nothing the Buckeyes or (especially) the Bears do this weekend matters - barring a loss by a top four team, we've MADE our selections."
Saturday, November 29, 2014
From ESPN Stats: Some facts about WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall Friday...
Western Kentucky's Leon Allen (237) and Marshall's Steward Butler (233) became the second pair of opposing running backs in FBS history to each rush for over 230 yards in the same game. The other? Maryland's Bruce Perry (237) and Wake Forest's Chris Barclay (243) in 1997.
Western Kentucky and Marshall combined for 133 points today. Including today's game, SMU has scored 106 all season.
The 133 combined points ties the most ever in a game involving a ranked team (No. 9 West Virginia beat No. 25 Baylor, 70-63, in 2012).
Western Kentucky scored more points today in football (67) than it did against Marshall in men's basketball last season (64).
The 15 combined Pass TD (8 by Brandon Doughty, 7 by Rakeem Cato) breaks an FBS record for most combined Pass TD in a game. It's the 2nd game in FBS history where 2 quarterbacks threw for at least 7 touchdowns (also California-Colorado earlier this season: Jared Goff and Sefo Liufau).
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook knew there was going to be a lot of points scored in Western Kentucky-Marshall, as the 76 over/under was the 2nd-highest mark of any of the games today or tomorrow (behind the 80 in Baylor-Texas Tech).The over hit with 7:23 remaining in the 2nd quarter.
This is the first time in Rakeem Cato's career he has thrown at least three interceptions in a home game.
Western Kentucky and Marshall combined to score 49 points in the 1st quarter (28-21 WKU). That is the most combined points in the 1st quarter of any FBS game this season. The previous high was 42 by New Mexico and Boise State on Nov. 8 when New Mexico led 28-14 after the 1st quarter.
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