Here's the latest on the NFL's "Race To LA" - I think I'll make that a tag! - from MMQB. Apparently, San Diego and Oakland together have purchased the land needed in Carson (part of LA, just south of downtown) to build a joint stadium, all while saying it's their "back-up plan". Protestors in Oakland are wondering why the owner (Al Davis' son Mark) would hire Carmen Policy to spearhead the Carson project if it wasn't his first priority.
So, who's going to end up in LA? As with virtually every comments section on the 'Net, the rational commentary devolves into a dick-showing contest, but many of the commenters think like I do - why are we compelled to bring ANY team to LA? Los Angeles just isn't a pro football city! If one team needs a new home, and all three of those (including the St. Louis Rams) have a legit history in LA, that's fine. But it seems to me as if there are loyal enough fan bases of a good enough size in St. Louis and San Diego to make those locales work, and to make new stadium deals work if need be. Oakland, however, was left behind thirty-five years ago for LA for a reason. The Oakland Coliseum is a POS. That city doesn't have the finances to do what Davis wants, or for that matter what the NFL wants.
Move the Raiders - and just the Raiders - to Los Angeles, or more accurately Carson, CA. (And in twenty years or so, they can move back...)
Showing posts with label Chargers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chargers. Show all posts
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Monday, April 27, 2015
Oh, is the draft this week?
Lost in the NHL and NBA playoffs, the baseball season, the buildup to the Kentucky Derby (which admittedly is pretty light this year), and the Mayweather fight, there's the non-event event that is the NFL collegiate draft, held for some inscrutable reason in Chicago this year.
So - if I recall, FSU's Jamies Winston goes first to Tampa, yes? Then, what? Tennessee trades #2 to San Diego for Philip Rivers and the Chargers take Marcus Mariota? Seems the most reasonable to me - Philly isn't going to do it, Tennessee would take Rivers over a rookie any day of the week, right? And Rivers would LOVE to come home, raised in north Georgia as he was.
And after that? Who cares...Wake me up when they do something in the league...
So - if I recall, FSU's Jamies Winston goes first to Tampa, yes? Then, what? Tennessee trades #2 to San Diego for Philip Rivers and the Chargers take Marcus Mariota? Seems the most reasonable to me - Philly isn't going to do it, Tennessee would take Rivers over a rookie any day of the week, right? And Rivers would LOVE to come home, raised in north Georgia as he was.
And after that? Who cares...Wake me up when they do something in the league...
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Here's an array of (American) football topics on the front burner this morning...
The big story, of course, is that New England's former star receiver Aaron Hernandez has been found GUILTY in the murder of his associate Odin Lloyd by a jury of twelve. 130 witnesses took the stand in one of the most well-assembled cases in high-profile history (as OJ Simpson followers would agree). The verdict carries an automatic life without parole sentence, which makes all the other charges, well, kinda moot.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Peter King with a salient recap of where the Los Angeles NFL situation is right now...
...which is, "Who the bleep knows?"
In his Monday Morning Quarter Back weekly column, he spends a great deal of time on the pros and cons of each of the three teams who might move to LA (Rams, Raiders, Chargers), and the communities they currently reside in and what they're doing to keep their teams, and what the owners are thinking (IF they're thinking aloud, which isn't happening much in the Midwest), and what the various stadium and stadium proposal ideas are like.
The major conclusion, as he says early in the piece, is as follows:
"I’m like everybody else with this Los Angeles thing. I’m on page 24 of a 300-page book, and it’s not all that interesting so far. But I hear the end is compelling, so I’d rather speed past the next 230 pages and go straight to the climax. Tell me what the end game is."
In his Monday Morning Quarter Back weekly column, he spends a great deal of time on the pros and cons of each of the three teams who might move to LA (Rams, Raiders, Chargers), and the communities they currently reside in and what they're doing to keep their teams, and what the owners are thinking (IF they're thinking aloud, which isn't happening much in the Midwest), and what the various stadium and stadium proposal ideas are like.
The major conclusion, as he says early in the piece, is as follows:
"I’m like everybody else with this Los Angeles thing. I’m on page 24 of a 300-page book, and it’s not all that interesting so far. But I hear the end is compelling, so I’d rather speed past the next 230 pages and go straight to the climax. Tell me what the end game is."
Monday, February 23, 2015
So...how many teams do we want in Los Angeles?
One? Two? Three?
None?
For some reason, after twenty barren years in the second-largest metropolis in the country, there's suddenly a rush to fill a void that most of us don't even notice.
It's not as if the NFL hasn't flourished in the last twenty years, or that any of its current problems are affected or would be solved by having at least one team return to L.A.
But suddenly, the San Diego Chargers AND the Oakland Raiders are threatening to bolt their current stadia (that's the plural of 'stadium', erudite readers), and the St. Louis Rams are talking about doing the same thing and returning to its original stomping grounds. Admittedly, all three stadia (go out and use the word twice today - that's your homework assignment) are in poor shape, although the Edward Jones Dome and Qualcomm Stadium are the Taj Mahal in comparison to the dump that the Raiders and Athletics share in Oakland.
There's a huge issue if the Chargers and Raiders follow through with the shared stadium deal they're discussing, but it's hard to see this being the deal-breaker if money talks loudly enough.
Our question is - WHY? Every one of these teams has been in their current homes for a minimum of twenty years; the Chargers for almost fifty. Los Angeles is NOT hurting for things to do on a Sunday afternoon: that's why the Raiders and Rams left in the FIRST place! Between living in the sun and surf capital of the nation, Hollywood, and everything else SoCal has going for it, who has time to watch football? The USC and UCLA football teams can testify to this (so can their basketball teams, for that matter) - when they're not good/borderline great, they're nothing in that town. Do you really think the current Rams or Raiders would succeed financially there? Really?
Stick with stability. Fix the stadium issues where you are (WITH PRIVATE MONEY!), and stay put - your loyal fans there will thank you tenfold.
None?
For some reason, after twenty barren years in the second-largest metropolis in the country, there's suddenly a rush to fill a void that most of us don't even notice.
It's not as if the NFL hasn't flourished in the last twenty years, or that any of its current problems are affected or would be solved by having at least one team return to L.A.
But suddenly, the San Diego Chargers AND the Oakland Raiders are threatening to bolt their current stadia (that's the plural of 'stadium', erudite readers), and the St. Louis Rams are talking about doing the same thing and returning to its original stomping grounds. Admittedly, all three stadia (go out and use the word twice today - that's your homework assignment) are in poor shape, although the Edward Jones Dome and Qualcomm Stadium are the Taj Mahal in comparison to the dump that the Raiders and Athletics share in Oakland.
There's a huge issue if the Chargers and Raiders follow through with the shared stadium deal they're discussing, but it's hard to see this being the deal-breaker if money talks loudly enough.
Our question is - WHY? Every one of these teams has been in their current homes for a minimum of twenty years; the Chargers for almost fifty. Los Angeles is NOT hurting for things to do on a Sunday afternoon: that's why the Raiders and Rams left in the FIRST place! Between living in the sun and surf capital of the nation, Hollywood, and everything else SoCal has going for it, who has time to watch football? The USC and UCLA football teams can testify to this (so can their basketball teams, for that matter) - when they're not good/borderline great, they're nothing in that town. Do you really think the current Rams or Raiders would succeed financially there? Really?
Stick with stability. Fix the stadium issues where you are (WITH PRIVATE MONEY!), and stay put - your loyal fans there will thank you tenfold.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
More on the concussion front...
You may or may not remember Jesse Freitas, who was an NFL QB in the 1970's. His post-football life mirrored that of many of the former players whose deaths have revealed the kind of head trauma found in patients with SEVERE head trauma over the course of YEARS.
Our hope is that the family of Mr. Freitas, who was found dead "in a parked car" yesterday, will allow the examination of his brain to see if someone of an older generation, as well as someone who did not play a line position, would have the same kind of damage - and frankly, his behavior following his football career warrants that attention.
Our hope is that the family of Mr. Freitas, who was found dead "in a parked car" yesterday, will allow the examination of his brain to see if someone of an older generation, as well as someone who did not play a line position, would have the same kind of damage - and frankly, his behavior following his football career warrants that attention.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...
...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)
Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division.
Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...
Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division.
Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...
| FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings | ||||||||
| NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE | (including playoffs) | |||||||
| FF rank | Team | Div | week 17 | ConfRc | DvRec | Home | Season | WC rnd |
| A1 | Seattle Seahawks | N-W | A1 | 10-2 | 5-1 | 7-1 | 12-4 | A1 |
| A2 | New England Patriots | A-E | A2 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 7-1 | 12-4 | A2 |
| A3 | Green Bay Packers | N-N | A3 | 9-3 | 5-1 | 8-0 | 12-4 | A3 |
| A4 | Denver Broncos | A-W | A4 | 10-2 | 6-0 | 8-0 | 12-4 | A4 |
| A5 | Dallas Cowboys | N-E | A5 | 8-4 | 4-2 | 4-4 | 13-4 | A5 |
| B6 | Indianapolis Colts | A-S | B8 | 9-3 | 6-0 | 6-2 | 12-5 | B6 |
| B7 | Baltimore Ravens | A-N | C10 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 6-2 | 11-6 | B7 |
| B8 | Detroit Lions | N-N | B6 | 9-3 | 5-1 | 7-1 | 11-6 | B8 |
| C09 | Pittsburgh Steelers | A-N | B7 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 11-6 | C09 |
| C10 | Cincinnati Bengals | A-N | C11 | 7-5 | 3-3 | 5-2-1 | 10-6-1 | C10 |
| C11 | Carolina Panthers | N-S | D19 | 6-6 | 4-2 | 4-4 | 8-8-1 | C11 |
| C12 | Arizona Cardinals | N-W | B9 | 8-4 | 3-3 | 7-1 | 11-6 | C12 |
| D13 | Philadelphia Eagles | N-E | C12 | 6-6 | 4-2 | 6-2 | 10-6 | D13 |
| D14 | San Diego Chargers | A-W | D13 | 6-6 | 2-4 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D14 |
| D15 | Buffalo Bills | A-E | D14 | 5-7 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D15 |
| D16 | Kansas City Chiefs | A-W | D15 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 6-2 | 9-7 | D16 |
| D17 | Miami Dolphins | A-E | D16 | 7-5 | 3-3 | 4-4 | 8-8 | D17 |
| D18 | San Francisco 49ers | N-W | D17 | 7-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 8-8 | D18 |
| D19 | Houston Texans | A-S | D18 | 8-4 | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-7 | D19 |
| E20 | St. Louis Rams | N-W | E20 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | E20 |
| E21 | Cleveland Browns | A-N | E21 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 7-9 | E21 |
| E22 | New Orleans Saints | N-S | E22 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 3-5 | 7-9 | E22 |
| E23 | New York Giants | N-E | E23 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-10 | E23 |
| E24 | Minnesota Vikings | N-N | E24 | 6-6 | 1-5 | 5-3 | 7-9 | E24 |
| F25 | Atlanta Falcons | N-S | F25 | 6-6 | 5-1 | 3-5 | 6-10 | F25 |
| G26 | Chicago Bears | N-N | G26 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 5-11 | G26 |
| G27 | Washington Redskins | N-E | G27 | 2-10 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 4-12 | G27 |
| G28 | New York Jets | A-E | G28 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 4-12 | G28 |
| G29 | Oakland Raiders | A-W | G29 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3-13 | G29 |
| H30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | A-S | H30 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3-13 | H30 |
| H31 | Tampa Buccaneers | N-S | H31 | 1-11 | 0-6 | 0-8 | 2-14 | H31 |
| H32 | Tennessee Titans | A-S | H32 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 1-7 | 2-14 | H32 |
...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:
...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.
...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.
...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance).
...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...
...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.
...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)
Sunday, December 28, 2014
Looking through the NFL final standings,...
...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...
8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).
8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.
0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...
0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).
The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.
6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)
Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).
Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.
Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).
Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!
8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).
8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.
0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...
0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).
The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.
6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)
Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).
Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.
Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).
Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!
(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Don't blame US if the pro tiers for Week 8 are imbalanced!
Blame the teams! We literally gave up trying to make the number of teams in each tier balance and went back to our guiding principle: Put teams that would play even games on a neutral field in the same tier. That means the chart looks more like a bell-curve than a flat line, but so be it! By the end of the season, it'll straighten itself out!
So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...
Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)
Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...
Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)
Quintile C is the middle of the pack:
Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)
Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...
Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)
Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:
Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)
So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...
Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)
Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...
Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)
Quintile C is the middle of the pack:
Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)
Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...
Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)
Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:
Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)
Monday, October 20, 2014
AFL Comparison #14: Richmond Tigers
The Richmond Tigers, despite making the 2013 playoffs for the first time in twelve years and having a budding roster of talent that boded well for the coming '14 season, went 3-10 over the first thirteen games of the twenty-two game season, dropping all the way to the very bottom of the ladder (tied with St. Kilda) in July. Counted for dead, the Tiger faithful were counting the dead men walking that they were going to go after when the season ended.
However, they got a couple of key players healthy, played a few easier teams to start the stretch, and somehow managed to win the last nine games of their season, including a do-or-die victory against Sydney AT Sydney that absolutely nobody gave them any chance to win on the last Saturday of the season. Then they got into the playoffs and won a game against Essendon before the clock struck midnight, the chariot turned into a pumpkin, and the team fell on their tailbones against a Port Adelaide team that scored fifty points on them in the first quarter alone en route to an eleven-goal rout that left the Tigers with more questions than they'd started the season with.
So, if they've got that much talent, why can't they win?
Their American counterpart: the San Diego Chargers
The Chargers of the NFL started life in LA, didn't like it, moved south to San Diego, and have teased their fans ever since - amazingly, three years ago, they found a way to be the #1 rated offense, the #1 rated defense, and STILL not make the playoffs! (Special teams and penalties play a large part in this story.) Like the Tigers, they have no history of titles, but lost and LOTS of potential! Like the Tigers, they set records, but don't win the games that should go with them. Like the Tigers, the Chargers have been known to fold in the most critical situations. Don't count on an NFL title, San Diego... Don't count on an AFL title either, Richmond supporters.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Highlights of the upcoming WEEK SEVEN!
There are some MASSIVE games in Week 7! We're in the middle of the college season, probably a third of the way through the NFL plate, and down to four weeks left in Canada before the Grey Cup playoffs begin, so there are a ton of important match-ups to look at:
CFL: The two games that should be close are on Saturday, when Montreal goes to Toronto for ownership of the East lead (depending on whether Hamilton holds serve Friday night when Ottawa comes to town), and the big game for second place in the West Sunday, when Edmonton visits Saskatchewan. The Eskimos are riding high and hold a one-game edge over the defending champs, but hosting the game should give the Rough-Riders an edge. Will it be enough to give them the win? They sure need it, because British Columbia is just a game behind them (and would be tied in the loss column with them if Edmonton wins Sunday)! 12-2 Calgary travels to 6-9 Winnipeg in the other game on Saturday. Predictions: Hamilton, Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton. Especially Edmonton.
NCAA: The beginning of our Tuesday night schedule is tonight, with Louisiana-Lafayette going to Texas State. (When the Wednesday games start in a few weeks, you can feast on football seven days a week! Bliss!) Thursday has VaTech at Pitt and Utah at Oregon State, two potentially close games, and Friday sees Fresno on the blue at Boise, and Temple travelling to Houston. No calls on any of those games - the lines are too accurate to pick against. But Boise just lost their best receiver...
On Saturday, a plethora of games to choose from! Highlights include several Tier 1 teams in action, including the nightcap with two top tier teams, Notre Dame at Florida State. We think 11 1/2 points is too big a spread - take the Irish. Other top tier teams in action include Baylor at Tier 4 West Virginia (8 1/2 points is too close - the Bears will want to make a statement), Alabama hosting Tier 3 Texas A&M, TCU hosting Tier 2 Oklahoma State, Ole Miss hosting Tier 7 Tennessee, and Oregon hosting Tier 5 Washington (we want to say that Chris Petersen will keep it closer than 21 points, but in reality, three TDs is probably about right). Other top games will include Tier 3 Kansas State at Tier 2 Oklahoma (take the Sooners and the 8 points); Tier 5 Virginia at Tier 3 Duke (the Blue Devils deserve more than 2 1/2 points - take them); Tier 2 UCLA at their UC brethren Cal-Berkeley; Tier 5 Rutgers at Tier 3 Ohio State; Tier 3 Clemson at Tier 6 Boston College; Tier 2 Georgia at Tier 6 Arkansas (we really want to give the Bulldogs the edge, but...no. No prediction.); Tier 6 Missouri at Tier 4 Florida (Missouri isn't as bad as they were last week, and Florida isn't as good. Take the Tigers and the 6 points.); Utah State at Colorado State, both Tier 6; Tier 3 Nebraska at Tier 7 Northwestern; and Tier 4 Kentucky going into Tier 2 LSU (and winning outright! Take the points!). The late games include Nevada upsetting Tier 6 BYU at home (write it down!), and Tier 4 schools Stanford at Arizona State (no prediction, but we struggle with why the Sun Devils are the underdogs...).
FCS: Games of interest to us...Northern Colorado (whom we just posted about today) goes to the red turf of Eastern Washington; Southern Utah goes to Pocatello to play ISU; Cal Poly visits Sacramento State in a potential shootout (CSU Sacramento's games tend to be 59-55 affairs!), and our personal favorites, the Savannah State Tigers, host Bethune-Cookman, who is a 214-point favorite. (No. Not really. Odds don't post for FCS games. But Savannah will find a way to lose this one big and probably embarassingly. That's why we love them.)
NFL: Ignoring the yawner Thursday night (Patriots by more than ten over the Jets), Sunday's line-up includes Atlanta at Baltimore, Seattle at St. Louis (they'll beat the Rams by MORE than the seven points listed), Cleveland at Jacksonville (take the Browns), New Orleans at Detroit (the Saints road woes are real - take the Lions), Kansas City at the Chargers (a classic case of people not realizing how good San Diego is this year, and that KC 2014 is NOT KC 2013), Arizona at Oakland (doesn't matter if Tiger Woods is there again, the Raiders lose by more than four), and the big game, San Francisco at Denver. It's tempting to pick Denver here, just as it is to pick Dallas over the Giants and the spread, but we'll be conservative.
CFL: The two games that should be close are on Saturday, when Montreal goes to Toronto for ownership of the East lead (depending on whether Hamilton holds serve Friday night when Ottawa comes to town), and the big game for second place in the West Sunday, when Edmonton visits Saskatchewan. The Eskimos are riding high and hold a one-game edge over the defending champs, but hosting the game should give the Rough-Riders an edge. Will it be enough to give them the win? They sure need it, because British Columbia is just a game behind them (and would be tied in the loss column with them if Edmonton wins Sunday)! 12-2 Calgary travels to 6-9 Winnipeg in the other game on Saturday. Predictions: Hamilton, Toronto, Calgary, and Edmonton. Especially Edmonton.
NCAA: The beginning of our Tuesday night schedule is tonight, with Louisiana-Lafayette going to Texas State. (When the Wednesday games start in a few weeks, you can feast on football seven days a week! Bliss!) Thursday has VaTech at Pitt and Utah at Oregon State, two potentially close games, and Friday sees Fresno on the blue at Boise, and Temple travelling to Houston. No calls on any of those games - the lines are too accurate to pick against. But Boise just lost their best receiver...
On Saturday, a plethora of games to choose from! Highlights include several Tier 1 teams in action, including the nightcap with two top tier teams, Notre Dame at Florida State. We think 11 1/2 points is too big a spread - take the Irish. Other top tier teams in action include Baylor at Tier 4 West Virginia (8 1/2 points is too close - the Bears will want to make a statement), Alabama hosting Tier 3 Texas A&M, TCU hosting Tier 2 Oklahoma State, Ole Miss hosting Tier 7 Tennessee, and Oregon hosting Tier 5 Washington (we want to say that Chris Petersen will keep it closer than 21 points, but in reality, three TDs is probably about right). Other top games will include Tier 3 Kansas State at Tier 2 Oklahoma (take the Sooners and the 8 points); Tier 5 Virginia at Tier 3 Duke (the Blue Devils deserve more than 2 1/2 points - take them); Tier 2 UCLA at their UC brethren Cal-Berkeley; Tier 5 Rutgers at Tier 3 Ohio State; Tier 3 Clemson at Tier 6 Boston College; Tier 2 Georgia at Tier 6 Arkansas (we really want to give the Bulldogs the edge, but...no. No prediction.); Tier 6 Missouri at Tier 4 Florida (Missouri isn't as bad as they were last week, and Florida isn't as good. Take the Tigers and the 6 points.); Utah State at Colorado State, both Tier 6; Tier 3 Nebraska at Tier 7 Northwestern; and Tier 4 Kentucky going into Tier 2 LSU (and winning outright! Take the points!). The late games include Nevada upsetting Tier 6 BYU at home (write it down!), and Tier 4 schools Stanford at Arizona State (no prediction, but we struggle with why the Sun Devils are the underdogs...).
FCS: Games of interest to us...Northern Colorado (whom we just posted about today) goes to the red turf of Eastern Washington; Southern Utah goes to Pocatello to play ISU; Cal Poly visits Sacramento State in a potential shootout (CSU Sacramento's games tend to be 59-55 affairs!), and our personal favorites, the Savannah State Tigers, host Bethune-Cookman, who is a 214-point favorite. (No. Not really. Odds don't post for FCS games. But Savannah will find a way to lose this one big and probably embarassingly. That's why we love them.)
NFL: Ignoring the yawner Thursday night (Patriots by more than ten over the Jets), Sunday's line-up includes Atlanta at Baltimore, Seattle at St. Louis (they'll beat the Rams by MORE than the seven points listed), Cleveland at Jacksonville (take the Browns), New Orleans at Detroit (the Saints road woes are real - take the Lions), Kansas City at the Chargers (a classic case of people not realizing how good San Diego is this year, and that KC 2014 is NOT KC 2013), Arizona at Oakland (doesn't matter if Tiger Woods is there again, the Raiders lose by more than four), and the big game, San Francisco at Denver. It's tempting to pick Denver here, just as it is to pick Dallas over the Giants and the spread, but we'll be conservative.
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