AFL Round 14 in review

The biggest rout of the year took place on Sunday afternoon (which was Saturday night here in the US), when St Kilda upset free-falling Essendon by the astronomical score of 162-52, a 110-point victory!

Throughout the game, the Saints played against a defense that resembled cones in a practice drill (or "witches' hats", if you prefer the down under term). To score 25 goals in a game is hard to do in a game of footy, but the lack of energy in the Bomber personnel was, to be kind, disheartening.

The commemoration of murdered Adelaide head coach Phil Walsh, begun Friday night at the Collingwood/Hawthorn game, continued at every game throughout the weekend - a stirring tribute to a fellow "lifer" from the footy community. The idea that teams can go tooth-and-nail for two hours and then come together and live out the Adelaide 2015 campaign motto, #weflyasone, was superb. We posted Rohan Connelly's plea to continue the camaraderie beyond this weekend, and we join him in those pleas.

As for the actual games that were played this weekend... 

Sydney over Port Adelaide by 10; Hawthorn by 10 over Collingwood; Richmond struggled past a toughened GWS with a nine-point win, and Western had the same difficulty with Carlton before they managed an eleven-point victory. Gold Coast welcomed both David Swallow and dual-Brownlow winner Gary Ablett Jr. back Saturday, and apparently that was all they needed, as they annihilated the North Melbourne Kangaroos 125-70 (and it wasn't that close). We talked about St Kilda's 110-point whipping of Essendon, but the West Coast Eagles beat up on Melbourne as well, winning 114-60. Brisbane held up against league-leader Fremantle for three quarters, tied throughout in wet, messy conditions that made it a tackler's paradise (more tackles were made in this game than every game ever except one (a game (there was a Richmond/Port game in 2010 with an unimaginable 258 tackles, or one every 25 seconds or so. Ridiculous.) Unfortunately, there are four quarters, and Freo scored seven goals to one in the last to win, 84-48.  

The Adelaide / Geelong game was cancelled, but the stadium was opened for fans to come onto the field and pay their respects, kick the football around parts of the field, and share their grief with other mourners. Adelaide is presumed to be back to work next week, with a game at West Coast on Saturday evening.

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

Wild Week 4 down under!

What a wild ANZAC holiday weekend in the Aussie Footy league!  I spent thirteen straight hours listening to the quadruple-header on line from Friday evening at seven through eight a.m. Saturday morning (ok, I heard all of the first two games, and dozed on and off through the other two!), with another five or six hours last night for the three overlapping Sunday games! Heaven!

Friday night, the opener for ANZAC week set the tone as the harder working team won; the fact that they were twenty point underdogs is immaterial.  Melbourne dominated Richmond 83-51 in the second half, holding the Tigers to one goal in the entire second half. Jack Riewoldt, the lead forward for Richmond, hit four behinds and zero goals in the game, for example, as the team went 6.15 (meaning six goals, fifteen behinds). And it was a PHYSICAL game, too, with each team racking up almost a hundred tackles.

Saturday started in Wellington, NZ, with St. Kilda 'hosting' Carlton, two bottom feeder teams. They played like it, too, and in the fourth quarter the younger Saints simply wore out, as Carlton pulled away and won by 40.

The traditional ANZAC day game over the last twenty years has been Essendon/Collingwood, at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Grounds, "the home of footy"). This year's version did not disappoint, as Collingwood looked far better than expected and won comfortably in the rain with 90,000 close friends, 69-49. It wasn't pretty (twice as many behinds as goals), but the Magpies are suddenly 3-1 and in the top 8 at the moment!

Next came the continuing degradation of the previous flavor of the month, the Gold Coast Suns, at the hands of their 'little brother', fellow expansion team GWS Giants, who set team records as they ripped the Suns apart 119-53. Frankly, the score flattered GC, as they were NEVER competitive; GWS had 157 more disposals than the Suns. Giants star Jeremy Cameron was spectacular with ten scoring shots, just missing a goal with a ridiculous backwards bicycle kick. 

The two nightcap games were the headliners, and played out virtually identically! The Grand Finalist (Hawthorn, Sydney) travels to the Up-n-Comers (Port Adelaide and Fremantle, respectively), and the home teams spend the first halves absolutely dismantling the champs (Port led Hawthorn 69-11 towards the end of the 2nd; Fremantle held Sydney to NINE points in the entire half). But the Champs are champs for a reason, and they found a gear at halftime that overwhelmed the younger team for a time (the Hawks scored 34 straight in the fourth to cut the lead to seven; the Swans outscored the Dockers 41-1 from the third into the fourth to cut that lead to three), before the opponent stabilized and won - Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn 99-91, and Fremantle became the only 4-0 team, winning 74-60 over Sydney. Great games!

On Sunday, West Coast outplayed Brisbane 118-65. WC had seventy inside 50s over the less experienced Lions, and played to their usual pattern: whomp the little guys; get whomped by the big guys. The Kangaroos held to form for a change, overcoming a virtual shutout in the first quarter to defeat aging Geelong 83-67 in a defensive battle where neither team played great defense. (Both teams moved an extra man into defense, which meant the offense couldn't just kick it in - the Roos figured out they needed to RUN the ball into the forward region, ending with just 10 marks inside 50 of their fifty-three inside 50s.)

And the upset of the round, unless you really believe in the hardest working team in the league: the Western Bulldogs, who amazed the unbeaten Adelaide Crows 125-68! Despite having more than fifty more possessions than the Crows, the Bulldogs still out-tackled them by eighteen! Already leading 69-35 at the half, the Doggies ran off thirty-four more points in a row to close out the third quarter. Suddenly, Western's got a 3-1 record, sitting comfortably inside the top eight, and looking like they may STAY there for awhile!

..and AFL Week Two In Preview!

...and here are the match-ups for Week Two!

Fri) Carlton at West Coast 
    West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.

Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
   Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.

Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
   Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!

Adelaide at Collingwood 
   On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.

Sydney at Port Adelaide
   This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!

St. Kilda at Gold Coast
   On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.

Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
   Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.

Hawthorn at Essendon
    Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.

Brisbane at North Melbourne
   Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.

AFL Week One In Review...

Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:

Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78  (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)

Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:

Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2	87.1
Sydney Swans (1-0) #5	74.5
Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10	72.1
Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1	70.7
Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9	69.5
Geelong Cats (0-1) #17	57.9
N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18	55.6
West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12	55.6
Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3	55.1
Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13	52.5
Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15	42.2
Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6	37.3
Carlton Blues (0-1) #16	36.4
Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7	35.2
GWS Giants (1-0) #8	31.0
Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14	29.9
Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4	26.0
St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11	11.4

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!

So, following the 'NAB Preseason', here are our 2015 AFL predictions!

As the last nine games of the pre-season conclude this weekend with some of the traditional crosstown rivalries, we've done a simulation of the upcoming season from what we've seen so far. Here are the results, with checkpoints throughout the projected 2015 season:

After April (4 games in) -

4-0) ADELAIDE
3-1) HAWTHORN, NORTH, PORT, RICHMOND, GWS, BRISBANE
2-2) SYDNEY, GEELONG, GOLD COAST, ESSENDON, FREMANTLE
1-3) WEST COAST, COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, WESTERN
0-4) MELBOURNE, ST KILDA

Odd to see the Crows alone on top, but they've got an easy April to start the season.

Halfway through (after round 10, right before the byes) -

9-1) HAWTHORN, PORT ADELAIDE
7-2-1) ADELAIDE
7-3) SYDNEY,  NORTH MELBOURNE
6-4) GOLD COAST, FREMANTLE, RICHMOND
5-4-1) GWS
5-5) ESSENDON, GEELONG
4-6) WESTERN, BRISBANE
3-7) WEST COAST
2-8) COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, MELBOURNE
0-10) ST KILDA

Now the cream will start to rise...Port and the Hawks occupy the top two spots, and six of last year's top eight are there again, joined by the Crows and Suns. Note Geelong 5-5, West Coast at 3-7, the Magpies with just 2 wins, and the Saints on a ten game losing streak.

After sixteen rounds, with just seven games to go...

14-1) HAWTHORN
12-3) PORT, NORTH
11-4) SYDNEY
10-4-1) ADELAIDE
9-6) FREMANTLE, RICHMOND, GOLD COAST
So, the top eight are unchanged from the last list...and a gap to...
7-7-1) GWS
7-8) GEELONG, ESSENDON, WESTERN
5-10) WEST COAST
4-11) BRISBANE, COLLINGWOOD
3-12) CARLTON, MELBOURNE
2-13) ST KILDA

And finally, our forecast for the final records for the 2015 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (19-3)
2. Sydney Swans (18-4)
3. North Melbourne Kangaroos (18-4)
4. Port Adelaide Power (15-7)
5. Fremantle Dockers (15-7)
6. Adelaide Crows (14-7-1)
7. Geelong Cats (13-9)
8/9. Richmond/Gold Coast (12-10)!!!
10. Essendon Bombers (11-11)
11. GWS Giants (10-11-1)
12. Western Bulldogs (9-12-1)
13. West Coast Eagles (8-14)
14. Collingwood Magpies (7-15)
15. Brisbane Lions (6-15-1)
16. Melbourne Demons (5-17)
17. Carlton Blues (3-19)
18. St. Kilda Saints (2-20)

Reviewing these, a few points...the top two are unchanged from last year, and we expect a repeat of last year's Grand Final participants...Port will fade, Freo will charge, but the percentage will keep the Power in the top four for the double chance during finals...Geelong and Sydney will both end the season well, our prediction suggesting that the Cats will end on a 7 of 8 run, and the Swans will win their last ten... We see Richmond and Gold Coast as a flat footed tie, which means ,argins of victory (and defeat!) will be critical all year for them!... Hard to fault the Dons if they don't make finals after the distractions...GWS should make another four win jump, and don't be shocked if it's more... Continuing to fall, West Coast and Collingwood and Carlton and St. Kilda, while Melbourne and Brisbane and Western will improve. Again, we see another Hawthorn/Sydney GF, and just as we won't stick our neck out for 8th, we also won't for first! Right now, we'd take the defenders...

The latest down under on all fronts!

The top all-footy news show in Australia, Footy Feed, looks like it's the best and quickest way to catch you up to speed on all the wild and varied goings-on in the AFL on and off the field...strike that: off the field. The lingering Essendon supplements scandal, the revelation early in the week about the banned painkiller in Fremantle star Ryan Crowley's system last September, the strangely insubstantial seeming betting scandal involving Western Bulldogs Lachie Hunter, and the weird situation involving the Melbourne Demons' Heretier Lumumba questioning the AFL about the doping rules as they might be applied to (of all things) passive marijuana exposure due to his connection with Rastafarianism during his time in the Caribbean.

It's been a wild few weeks in Australia! (And it's only the pre-season...excuse me: the "NAB pre-season"!)

ON the field, there were three games Thursday and Friday VERY much worth watching: 

1) Essendon's second stringers came up big against Melbourne Friday, stealing an errant pass to score an uncontested goal that won the game, 77-75. (And you don't think it meant something to those 'kids'? Watch their celebration at the end of the video!) Both teams look like they're heading the right direction.

2) Speaking of which, my two favorite Queensland teams, Gold Coast and the Brisbane Lions, played to a 63-all tie (a rare but not ridiculous occurrence - it happens once or twice a year), with both teams looking up and down, mostly good but also missing a few key bodies. (Gold Coast has played all pre-season without two-time MVP - that is, Brownlow Medal winner - Gary Ablett Jr, as they played the last eight games of 2014 when they fell out of finals. With him, the Suns figure to be favorites to make at least the top 8, maybe even the top 4.)

3) And on Thursday night, Hawthorn and Saint Kilda played a highly uncompetitive game, but it was just as entertaining because it was an absolute clinic by the two-time defending champions in a 145-39 spanking of last year's "wooden spoon" winners. Hard not to tab Hawthorn as the pre-season favorites after their pre-season performance.

Aussie round up - Preseason week 2

So, here's a quick wrap up of the weekend's pre-season games down under...

Fremantle defeated Melbourne, 61-43, in a rather unspectacular game where each team had their "moments" to build on. (Fremantle should end up being a much stronger team than the Demons as the season wears on.)

The Brisbane Lions look fantastic, smashing the Grand Finalist Sydney Swans by a score of 75-39 on Friday. Admittedly, it was the Swans' first game and the second for the Lions, but there were still some amazing flashes of growth and improvement from the 7-win Lions from last year!

Greater Western Sydney also looked great, defeating the Gold Coast Suns by 36 points. GC rested most of their stars but still, the Giants were really on top of things Saturday!

The match everyone had been waiting to see went exactly as everyone had feared... St. Kilda rolled over the imposters wearing the Essendon Bombers uniforms, in some cases with the highest numbers in footy history (you never see numbers in the 70s on the field!), as they were playing their "top-up" players while virtually the entire team - every man who was on the Dons in 2012, when the supplement scandal was taking place - was on probable suspension through the pre-season. With the 101-51 score, we learned virtually nothing about St. Kilda, and literally nothing about Essendon.

Port Adelaide beat the West Coast Eagles by the substantial score of 89-49, but the real story was yet another injury to a key Eagle player, meaning West Coast is looking at a depleted roster even before the start of the real season.

Finally, the game that I got to hear Saturday night (their Sunday afternoon) was the best game of the pre-season so far, with a strong Hawthorn team falling to an even stronger team from North Melbourne, looking all the while like a Grand Final contender after being a surprise semi-finalist last year! 38-year old Brent Harvey, the oldest in the league, continues to look like a superstar, and both teams are in midseason form already!

It's also becoming clear that the new enforcement of the tackling rule - no more question as to whether a man with the ball has been tackled or got rid of the ball in time: it's now a tackle every time! - will benefit those teams who are already good tacklers, and avoid being tackled themselves! Who might that be? Only the three teams who have already shown they were loaded for bear this season and were ready to move up the ranks: Brisbane, GWS, and Gold Coast. Look out for those three as possible up'n'comers for finals this year!

Injuries are not just a stateside football thing...

Three days into the Aussie Rules pre-season, we've already had two major knee injuries that threaten to end the season for two of our best and brightest: Tom Libertore of the Western Bulldogs blew an ACL in their game last night against Richmond, while the West Coast Eagles confirmed that they've lost defender and 2014 best-and-fairest Eric Mackenzie with a similar injury for an undetermined amount of time after defeating Carlton on Friday night.

Pre-season is a terrible dilemma for coaches of all sports: how do you prepare your team for the "real" season without endangering your still-out-of-condition athletes? They've got to play, or they won't get into game readiness - even the players tell you that - but if they're out of shape, are they safe to play? ACL injuries are notoriously fickle occurrences anyway: these could have happened to any athlete at virtually any time, and Mackenzie's injury in particular was almost ludicrous in its lack of contact. Perhaps it's simple coincidence that these two injuries to star players happened in the first three days of pre-season...but it makes you think.

(And here are the highlights from Friday and Saturday's games - West Coast v Carlton on Friday, Brisbane edging St. Kilda on Saturday afternoon, as well as the Richmond / Western Bulldog game.

Slogans? SLOGANS!

The last post talked about the membership drives each of the teams is pushing right now, leading into the 2015 season which starts for "real" at the beginning of April. 

And with any campaign, there are slogans to keep the attention of the viewing and listening public....Some of the slogans are (shall we say) better than others?

Kangaroos - "#getREAL"
Sydney Swans - "Feel it in '15"
Geelong - "We need you, be a member at home or far away"
Collingwood - "Side by side we stick together: it's more than a line in our song"
    (what?)
None of those approach the dubious charm of some of Carlton's efforts a few years ago...
"They know we're coming" and "Can You Smell What The Blues Are Cooking?", straight out of The Rock's wrestling motto.

The all-time worst, in retrospect, belongs to the 2013 Essendon Dons, who were about to be embroiled in the worst doping scandal in AFL history: "Whatever It Takes". Really, Dons? It really ended up being "whatever it took", didn't it?

Some more of this year's better samples - "Unleash 2015" (Adelaide), "#ForeverFreo" (Fremantle), "My Heart Beats True" (Melbourne, a good slogan for a team trying to come back), "Bring The Noise" (Port Adelaide, to one of the louder fan bases in the league), and West Coast's "The West Is Ours" (always in a fan battle with its crosstown rival Fremantle). We kind of like some of the hashtag examples, too - #gatherthepack (Western Bulldogs), #StandTall (GWS, who has a great big front line), and #BelieveBelong (for Brisbane). 

And here's the way the FF rating system will start the pre-season...

Now, it needs to be said that pre-season games are NOT the same as regular or post season games: the teams aren't nearly as interested as usual in winning the game at hand, but rather developing the best team in order to win the games "that count". But there will be some indications during the NAB Challenge from February 26 through the end of March, indications that will help show how certain young players are developing, how new 'employees' fit in with the rest of their new teammates, what the needs are that may or may not have been apparent until the entire team's on the field together, how a new coach or system works in a particular situation, how age or injury is affecting key players, and so forth. For that reason, we at Following Football reserve the right to adjust ratings to a small extent to compensate for those variances. (And we'll do the same thing for American football in the summer.)

Having said that, here's our starting point for the 2015 Australian Football League Season, and some initial predictions about the direction those numbers might move:

Hawthorn Hawks - 81.6 ..........The defenders didn't hurt themselves this summer! (up)
Sydney Swans - 77.7..................Trade issues, devastating loss in GF could hurt. (down)

Port Adelaide Power - 71.7......A team on the rise who got a new great player. (up!).
Fremantle Dockers - 70.3.......Made some positive moves and some not so good. (<--->).

Adelaide Crows - 63.4..............Great new players but 5th? With a new coach? (down).
N. Melbourne Kangaroos - 62.8...Good moves, but their best player's 37 years old.... (<---->).
West Coast Eagles- 62.3...........We say this every year, but then they've fallen short. (<---->)
Geelong Cats - 61.8...................Is this the year they come back to the pack? Maybe. (<-->)

Richmond Tigers - 55.1...........Richmond's rated ninth right now - as always! (<----->)
Essendon Bombers - 53.7.......How can the ASADA scandal NOT hurt them? (down)

Gold Coast Suns - 43.9............With Gary Ablett Jr. healthy, they were already a finals team. (up!)
Carlton Blues - 40.7.................The Blues lost top player but mediocre was ceiling. (<--->)
Collingwood Magpies - 40.2..Hard to imagine most popular team this far down. (<--->)

Western Bulldogs - 31.4...........Lots of new talentplus improving youngsters from '14. (up!)
Brisbane Lions - 26.4..............Offseason was a HUGE positive for the Lions! (up)
GWS Giants - 26.3....................See Bulldogs comment, and copy for the next 3 years! (up)

Melbourne Demons - 20.2......Lots of new blood, but has the culture of losing changed? (up?)
St. Kilda Saints - 10.5...............This is awfully low; yet somehow, the Saints may hit it. (<--->)

Here's the hard part: there are seven ups and three downs, but it's a net zero system, meaning whenever one team goes up a point, another team goes DOWN a point, so that the total rating is always 50 points per team (900.0). SO...just assume like all predictions, this one's not entirely accurate! (Besides, it'll change as pre-season moves on.)

Go to www.afl.com.au for all your AFL information!!

THIS is why AUSSIE FOOTY players are AMAZING!

YOU'VE GOT TO READ THIS PIECE ON SCOTT HARDING! Harding played five years in the Australian Football League, from 2006-2010, performing for the Brisbane Lions for the vast majority of his fifty games in the league. Michael Weinreb's piece in Grantland details how he came to the University of Hawai'i on a scholarship to play American football, and how his unique (to the US) set of skills developed in the amazingly versatile sport of Footy have translated to his becoming the most multi-faceted football player in this country. He punts (equally well with left or right feet), he returns punts (the only player in recorded FBS history to handle both ends of the punting "transaction"), and he's also the leading receiver for the Hawaii Warriors football team this year.

There's a reason we at Following Football are so stoked about Australian Rules Football! Those players are MEN.

Reposting the AFL Comparison page WITH LINKS to each of the individual articles. (You're welcome.)

Over the course of the next week or two, we'll share with you American football lovers each of the eighteen AFL teams, and who the best professional club in American sports is. This will give you a basis of comparison to understand the dynamics of Australian Footy teams, and perhaps how to choose your new favorite Aussie club to root for!

Here's a preview of how the teams line up with their American counterparts...

The ADELAIDE Crows = the New York Knicks (of the NBA) - link here! 
The BRISBANE Lions = the Los Angeles Lakers (of the NBA) - link here! 
The CARLTON Blues = the Chicago Bears (of the NFL) - link to Carlton here! 
The COLLINGWOOD Magpies = the New York Yankees (of MLB) - link here! 
The ESSENDON Bombers = the Oakland Athletics (of MLB) - link to Essendon here! 
The FREMANTLE Dockers = the New Jersey Devils (of the NHL) - link here! 
The GEELONG Cats = the New England Patriots (of the NFL) - link here! 
The GOLD COAST Suns = the Cleveland Cavaliers (of the NBA) - link here! 
The GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY Giants = the Minnesota Timberwolves (of the NBA) - link to GWS here! 
The HAWTHORN Hawks = the San Antonio Spurs (of the NBA) - link here!
The MELBOURNE Demons = the Oakland Raiders (of the NFL) - link here! 
The NORTH MELBOURNE Kangaroos = The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (of MLB) - link! 
The PORT ADELAIDE Power = the Seattle Seahawks (of the NFL) - link!
The RICHMOND Tigers = the San Diego Chargers (of the NFL) - link to Richmond here! 
The ST. KILDA Saints = the New York Jets (of the NFL) - link here! 
The SYDNEY Swans = the Boston Red Sox (of MLB) - link to Sydney Swans here! 
The WEST COAST Eagles = the Dallas Cowboys (of the NFL) - link here! 
The WESTERN Bulldogs = the Sacramento Kings (of the NBA) - link here! 

As we progress through each club and its American doppelganger, we hope you'll come to understand more about the particular teams that represent the great sport of footy in Australia and around the world. Before the season starts next March, you'll get a firm background in the sport - and we'll provide content on the AFL page to help novices understand the sport.

AFL Comparison #2: Brisbane Lions

The Brisbane Lions are the last team to win three consecutive AFL premierships ("championships" for us Yanks), back in 2001-2003. Curiously, they were never the top-seeded team going into the playoffs (or "finals", as Aussies call them), although they were always second or third in line. Those Lions had stars: Jason Akermanis, Jonathan Brown, and so many more. Why, you could even have called them...SHOWTIME!

Their American counterpart: The Los Angeles Lakers

Those 2000-2002 Lakers were also the last NBA team to three-peat, and talk about star power: Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal were it, baby! Unfortunately for both LA and Brisbane, star power fades over time, and so do talents as players age and retire...

For the Lions, the last holdover of the premierships retired during the season this year - they do that in Aussie Rules: when the body gives out, it simply gives out. You cannot keep playing a sport that's as tough physically as footy if you're not up to it. Jonathan Brown became instant royalty throughout Australia when he retired, and the team could finally start rebuilding instead of "hanging on" to its past. Brisbane fell to the bottom third the last couple of years, but finally this fall (spring down under), players are starting to want to come to Brisbane and rebuild the Lions into a competitive team.

As far as the Lakers go, they're about a year behind the Lions' scycle: Kobe Bryant's trying to return from a catastrophic knee injury, and as long as he's still the alpha dog there, the Lakers are going to be stuck in their own "hanging on" mode, with no cap room and dawdling in the bottom third of the league. Here's hoping they are quick in finding the path back up the ladder, as their counterpart Brisbane Lions have begun doing in the league below the equator.