Following up on prophecies from last week...

If we're to be legit about predicting games, we've got to follow up on our predictions each week, so you have some idea what return you're getting on your investment, right? So, here we go!

Rugby) Nailed it. New Zealand 34-17 over Australia.

NFL) An awkward weekend! Got four right (picking the Pats, Chiefs, Vikes, and Cards to win and cover); had one push (Ravens by three over SD) and three more where we picked the right winner but they barely missed the cover (Seattle by ONE, Houston by THREE instead of four, and Saints by THREE instead of 3 1/2! Aaagh!). Missed the winners entirely on victories by Tampa, the Raiders, Cincy and Denver (Manning be Manning again!); and missed that SF wouldn't cover against the Rams. So with the winners we went 9-4; ATS, though, we were 4-8-1, with one to go tonight. (Carolina covers seven against Indy.)

CFL) Two-and-two: we got the two dominant teams in the west, Calgary and Edmonton, winning their games handily. But we missed the other two - the BC Lions clinched a playoff spot by upsetting Toronto (guaranteeing them third place in the East), and sophomore franchise Ottawa moved within one step of a division title by beating Hamilton 12-6 in Hamilton! All they have to do now is play them again at home Saturday and either win or lose by fewer than six points. Good luck, RedBlacks!

NCAA) By sections...

BIG GAMES in the FBS - we went 4-1! Missed UNC beating Pitt 26-19, but nailed wins by Florida and LaTech, and knew Stanford and Notre Dame would win close battles with Wazzu and Temple, respectively.

BIG GAMES in the FCS - 3-3 here, but we're good with it. Our winners: Dayton 31-14 over Jacksonville; J-ville State routing Eastern Kentucky; and William & Mary over JMU. Our losers weren't embarrasing - Charleston Southern edged out Coastal Carolina, handing the defending conference champs their first loss; Fordham lost 31-29 to Colgate in an incredible game; and an even more amazing game saw Harvard beat Dartmouth as predicted, but only by one point (not 10+ as called). Big Green held the champs scoreless until six minutes to go in the game, stopping Harvard on interceptions, fumbles, and so forth every time they made it into hostile territory. But they scored a TD with six to go, failed on the next drive, and then went down and scored on fourth down to win the game 14-13. Great teams find ways to win.

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FBS - Four right, five wrong, one push, and one push-ish (Auburn lost by 8 on a seven point spread). Proud of the way Minnesota reacted Saturday night, and deserved to beat Michigan. Took three OTs for Oregon to prove our Sun Devil forecast wrong!

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FCS - Seven right, three winners but we missed the margin badly (Illinois St, Eastern Washington, and Marist weren't close to what we called), and five we had the wrong victors - congrats to Alabama A&M, Alcorn St, Penn, Furman, and first-year ballers Kennesaw St, who went to 6-2 with an upset of Monmouth Saturday! Are they actually a threat to Coastal and Charleston Southern? We'll find out soon enough!

All other games... - 14-8 in the FBS predictions against the spread; 32-7 picking winners in the FCS.

All in all, not bad...

Weekend Wesults!

NOT a great weekend for the prognosticators!

In the CFL, we went 2-2, with both Montreal and British Columbia pulling major upsets on Friday night. Of course, it wasn't just us - Jamie Nye of CFL.ca went the same 2-2, and the oddsmakers actually went 1-3, choosing Winnipeg over Ottawa for some reason. Only Edmonton's win helped them salvage a game.... So, with two weeks left, we're fairly locked in at about the 80% mark in the CFL pundits' pool, but we're floating just one game behind Nye (42 to 43 correct), and that's what we're hoping to catch in these last eight chances before the playoffs. (We chose the same four winners last week, so no chance to catch up.) Our Record is 42-31 straight up, 42-29-2 against the spread. 

In the NFL, everyone blew chunks this week! Discounting tonight's Arizona game, we went 5-8 against the odds makers...but both Sagarin and ELO (538) predicted two winners out of thirteen against the spread! Actually, the Following Football tiers went 7-5-1, far better than all other contenders...except we thought we knew better in a few cases, and picked against them. Whoops.
Straight up winners, we all went 9-4, for what it's worth. Our Record is 70-32 straight up, 60-41 against the spread.

And in college ball, we went 25-21-1 against the actual Vegas spreads (on FBS only games, the only place you have spreads in Vegas), and straight up, a pretty solid 39-8. Then, in the FCS games, where we're basically inventing a spread based on the Sagarin ratings, the HERO Sports predictions, and our own Following Football tier system forecasts, our prognostications were saved by going 7-0 against our spread in the Historically Black College conferences, meaning we went 30-24 overall ATS. In picking winners, we were 39-15, with lots of upsets in the Colonial (poor James Madison in particular, who had ESPN there and everything, only to get beaten by Richmond 59-49!) and the Pioneer (also 2-3 straight up, including a loss by league-leader Jacksonville). Our Record now is 600-167 straight up and 361-305 (dropping pushes) against the spread.

Weekend Wesults

What a great weekend to be a football fan, as long as you have no affiliations!

If, however, you're a fan of the Seahawks, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Sacramento State, Texas A&M, Lamar, North Dakota St, Ball State, Ohio University, or Kansas State, you're probably drowning your sorrows in a beverage of your choice.

And if, heaven forbid, you're a Michigan Wolverine fan, the Suicide Prevention number is in the inside cover of your phone book.

Meanwhile, here's our record this weekend:

College Football) We went a decent 74-27 selecting winners (having missed selecting a few games by accident in our haste Thursday) and a more respectable 56-45 against the spread (including using what lines and oddsmakers we could scrounge up to make reasonable predictions with point spreads for the FCS games. Our total for the season: 522-144 selecting winners (down to 78%), 306-260 against the spread (up to 54%).

Canadian Football) The only game we missed was the one we were completely unsure on - Calgary at Toronto (we made a blind stab at the Argos, but Calgary won 27-15 instead). Meanwhile, Ottawa and Hamilton came through (and bought themselves playoff spots, as did Toronto in their loss), as did Edmonton, so we went 3-1 both ways and now sit at 40-29 overall and 40-27-2 against the spread.

National Football League) (So far, with two games still to go), we're at 7-5 ATS and 9-3 picking winners; for the year, that makes us 61-27 overall and 55-32 against the spread. For the record, we picked the Patriots to cover the 9 1/2 point spread, and tomorrow night we expect the Giants to cover the four point deficit and beat the Eagles.

Weekend Wesults (a day late - switched with UAD this week!)

Thanks for your patience with us flip-flopping these articles this week - with all the coaching changes (and more coming! Amazing!), we wanted to get our two cents - or rather, our two senses - in as quickly as we could! Besides, both the NFL and CFL had thrilling Monday night games to wait for the conclusion of... Anyway - on to our results!

So, our Canadian Football League predictions: Toronto over Ottawa (28-23) from last Tuesday; Hamilton over Saskatchewan (34-20)…Calgary holds off Edmonton (holding our breath on this one – 30-27)…BC to defeat Winnipeg (in Vancouver, not a stretch: 20-14)…and Montreal catches Toronto on six days rest (28-27, despite the Argos being favored otherwise). OOPS!

Results? 2-3 straight up (got the first two right), 4-1 against the spread (missed the last one). OVERALL, 37-28 straight up, 37-26-3 ATS.

Next, our National Football League predictions: Houston (+0.5) upsets Indianapolis Thursday night…on Sunday, Atlanta (-8) covers against Washington…Cincinnati (-3) covers against Seattle…Green Bay (-9.5) covers against the Rams…Philadelphia (-4.5) covers against New Orleans…and Buffalo (-2.5) covers at Tennessee. On the flip side of that coin, Cleveland (+6.5) beats the spread against the Ravens…Chicago (+9.5) stays close to the Chiefs…and Jacksonville (+2.5) at least covers against Tampa. In the late games Sunday, Arizona (-3), New England (-9.5), Denver (-5.5), and the Giants (-7) all win by more than those spreads against Detroit, Dallas, Oakland, and San Francisco, respectively. Finally, on Monday night, Pittsburgh (+3) upsets San Diego.

Results? Nailed 8 out of 14 completely (Green Bay, Philly, Cleveland, Chicago, Arizona, New England, Denver, and Pittsburgh, thanks to the wildcat Deveon Bell!); also picked winners Atlanta, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Giants; only missed two games completely – Houston lost to Indy, and Tampa covered against Jacksonville. So, 8-6 against the spread, 12-2 winners. OVERALL, we’re 52-24; against the spread we’re 49-27.

With our college picks, there are so MANY that it’s too time consuming to list all the wins and losses we went through, but let’s give you the overall breakdown…

There was a large group of games where we felt that the favorite would not only win but cover the Vegas spread… Of those 38 games, we went 19-19 regarding that particular call against the spread, and seven of those 38 actually lost their games (so we were 31-7 with those straight up).

Then, we had a list of 17 games where we thought the underdog would at least beat the spread and (in some cases) win outright:

Within that group, we correctly called four upsets (out of five predictions – VERY nice!) – Wisconsin over Nebraska, U Conn over UCF, Rice over Florida Atlantic, and San Diego St over Hawaii. Overall in this group, we nailed 16 out of 17 winners (16-1!) and went 9-8 against the spread.

Finally, we predicted margins of victory for all 54 FCS games last weekend, and nailed a couple right on the number: Bethune-Cookman Thursday night over SC State, 17-14, and Western Carolina over Mercer by three as well.  Overall, we got 38 winners (don’t know how pleased we are with a 38-16 record on this…), and there were 20 of those games in which we got within ten points of the actual score, which actually is pretty good! Some of the games, though, really caught us by surprise – Rhode Island shutting someone out? (20-0 over Delaware!) UC Davis winning and Montana losing? Maine and Richmond beating Albany and Elon surprised us, Central Connecticut beating ANYONE surprised us (35-33 over Bryant), and the Big South (where we PROMISED no upsets!) saw lowly Gardner-Webb upset a Liberty team we had picked by 19!

So, on the whole, our college football predictions looked like this for Week 5: Straight up, we went 85-24 all across the board this weekend (47-8 in the FBS alone), and against the Vegas spread, which is just for FBS games, we went a pedestrian 28-27. For the season, we are 448-117 overall and 240-215 ATS, with 2 pushes. That’s down to 79% straight up and still at 53% against the spread. Not as impressive as the rest of our body of work this year!

As for our competition success, in our NFL “Pigskin Pick’em”, we are in the top 10% out of 500,000 entries in the straight up competition, and in the top 1% (in fact, the top thousand entries) in the competition against the spread!

For the college pick’em game, as you might expect from our struggles above, we’re not nearly as high, although we ARE in the top third of the 250,000 entries at 68+%! So, room to improve!

(And don’t forget that we ended the AFL season in the top 1% for finals and 5% for the season!)

Finally, for the Canadian Football League “Pick’em” prediction contest, we’re still in the top fifth, continuing to sit right around #2000-#2500 out of 14,000 (somewhere between 80-85%, depending on how we do that week)!

So, we may not be perfect, but we’re WAY better than average on all fronts!

Weekend Wesults!

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... There were ups, and there were downs... highs, and lows... successes, and failures...

If the West Coast Eagles could have kicked against the broad side of a flipp'n barn, we would probably have nailed our AFL Grand Final prediction. As it was, instead of Hawthorn winning their third straight final 110-88, the score was 107-61...with star Eagles like Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy kicking like the ball was made out of meat or something. It was decided by halftime; Rex Hunt's famous fat lady sang in the second quarter, just like last year. Our final results for the 2015 season: 150-56 overall, and against the spread we went 123-83. We fell to second in our division of the tipping contest when the person behind us also thought the Eagles would kick terribly, it seems, and passed us on margin only. Oh well!

In the CFL, we got three out of four winners right (Calgary managed to win in Hamilton, 35-33), and went 2-2 against the spread, so our season is now at 35-25 overall and 32-26-2 ATS.

In the NFL, we split our predictions last week between the games we felt good predicting and the ones we felt uncertain about. Turns out...there's not much difference.

With our "sure thing" games? 6-2 against the spread, 5-3 overall.
With our "flip a coin" games? 5-2 both against the spread AND overall.
Total: 11-4 ATS, 10-5 straight up. One more winner ATS, one more loser straight up.

Huh....

Overall now, we're 40-22 straight up and 41-21 ATS.  

Finally, with the college games, there were some holes-in-one on our part...

"Take Clemson to win" over favored Notre Dame? 24-22, Tigers. 
"TCU wins by a lot more than 15"? TCU 50, Texas 7.
"Can't believe A&M's not favored at home!" Aggies win over MSU, 30-17. 
"BGSU wins by LESS than nine" - Bowling Green 28-22 over Buffalo.
And Western Illinois over Southern Illinois by 1? Western 37, Southern 36! 

And then.... well, some were atrocious: "Tech by double digits!" (UNC 38, GT 31)..."Don't trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover!" (Iowa 10, Wisconsin 6)..."We have (UCLA) higher on every metric!" (Arizona St 38, Bruins 23)..."We like NIU to win by MUCH MORE than (two) - Central Michigan 29, Northern Illinois 19...and the worst sin of all, not having faith in a five-time defending champion to rise up as an underdog (and we're NOT talking about Alabama's shellacking of Georgia, although we could - we missed that one too!) - North Dakota St rose up as a three-point underdog at South Dakota St, their archrival, and whipped them 28-7.

So, our overall results this week: In the FBS games, we went a respectable 42-19 straight up, but a terrible 24-33 against the spread! With the FCS, we had no Vegas spread to go with (and we need to stop treating the Sagarin numbers like they're from oddsmakers!), so all we can say is that we went a very excellent 44-10 picking our FCS winners (and it would've been better had we not gone 2-4 within our home conference, the Big Sky!). 

Oh, and the Valparaiso/Davidson game we said would be 2-0 Valpo? Try 42-35 Valpo. Turns out it wasn't a lack of offense - it was a lack of defense...

Our overall record as of October 5th... 367-93 picking winners only; 212-188-2 against the spread.  [STILL better than "Twilight"!] That's just under 80% straight up and 53% ATS.

Weekend Wesults (a day early!)

Results of our Prophecies for the Fourth Week of September, 2015:

You’ll see results in a different font, following the prediction itself. Hope that makes it clear…if not, we’ll try something else next time! Let me know in the comments whether it works for you or not. ('CAUSE IT MADE IT SO MUCH FASTER FOR US!)

AFL)

Hawthorn to win and cover the 9 ½ point spread in their favor AT Fremantle, the minor premiers.

YES – won by 27!

West Coast to win, but North Melbourne to beat the 31 ½ point spread against them in Perth.

YES – won by 23!

Two and zero winners, two and zero against the spread! The winners meet in the Grand Final a week from Saturday at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds, “the home of footy”.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 149-56 overall (72%); 122-83 against the spread (59% "ATS"). We also currently LEAD our segment of the afl.com.au “tipping” (predicting) finals pool with just the one game to go next week. Crossing our fingers!

CFL)

Calgary beats the nine-point spread in their favor at Winnipeg. WON BY THREE, NOT NINE.

Edmonton beats the eleven-point spread in their favor against the BC Lions. WON BY SIX, NOT 11.

Ottawa over Toronto, but we’re hedging and saying Toronto covers the 2 ½ point spread.

OTTAWA WON BY NEGATIVE NINE, NOT LESS THAN 2 ½ … WELL, S’POSE THAT IS LESS…

Saskatchewan might pull the upset over Montreal, a one point favorite. We’re betting that way. WON by twelve, not one. Go figure!

THIS WEEKEND’S RESULTS were weird! Games 1 and 2, we got the winner but not the spread; game 3 we got the spread but not the winner, and in game 4 we got both by picking the 1-11 team to pull the upset!

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 32-24 overall (57%), 3-1 this week; 30-24-2 ATS (56%)

NFL)

Giants (-4) win and cover v Redskins on Thursday. YES – won by eleven.

Bengals (+2.5) upset Ravens. YES – 28-24.

Panthers (-3) win and cover and slaughter the Saints. WELL, WIN AND COVER: 27-22.

Raiders (+3.5) cover but Browns win. RIGHT AND WRONG: Raiders, 27-20.

Cowboys (+1.5) may be short of stars, but they upset the Falcons. True at halftime, but atlanta won the second half and the game, 39-28.

Texans (-6.5) over Bucs, Vikings (-2.5) over Chargers, and Patriots (-14) over Jaguars – all cover.

YES, YES, AND YES: Texans by 10, Vikings by 17, and pats by 34!

Jets (-2) win by more than 2 against the Eagles. Whoops! Eagles, 24-17.

Steelers (-1.5) should cover against the Rams. Should. Did. 12-6, even without ben.

Titans (+3.5) upset the Colts at home. Almost: indy by just 2, 35-33.

Cardinals (-6.5) by more than a TD over the 49ers. I’d say 47-7 counts as more…

Bills (+2.5) beat the Dolphins straight up. And then some…

The Bears (+14.5) and Lions (+3) BOTH beat the spread but lose, to the Seahawks and Broncos, respectively. Screwed up on the bears – ten drives, ten punts, no points – and Peyton made sure we lost the other bet, too.

Finally, on Monday night, the Packers (-7) over the Chiefs even with the points. To be decided…

THIS WEEKEND’S RESULTS: 11-4 winners; 11-4 against the spread; Monday night still to go…We picked the Buffalo victory when no one else did, which helped.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 30-17 straight up, 30-17 against the spread this season. (Both 64%.)

NCAA)  HERE GOES! These are the most interesting games (in our humble opinion, with our humble opinion attached!). By the way, since we didn’t share the new tier division (we’re already at our full spread of twenty FBS tiers, A through T, with the FCS ranks extending down another eight levels for now into Z, a, and b), we’ll incorporate that into our predictions as well… As always, we’re using the consensus point spread on Tuesday for solely FBS games, and the Sagarin prediction for games involving FCS teams.

Conference tilts of interest:

Georgia Tech (C, -9.5) to win and cover against Duke (I) in the ACC. Wrong! Duke upsets, 34-20!

Oklahoma St (H, -3) to win and cover at Texas (J) in the Big 12 (which has ten teams, as opposed to the Big Ten, which has 14…) won but with a fg at the end. 30-27.

TCU (D, -7.5) to win, but Texas Tech (H) covers (that last half-point…) in the Big 12. Won by three.

Washington (I, +4.5) to upset Cal-Berkeley (I) at home in the Pac 12. Wrong! Cal 30-24.

Oregon (D, -11) to win but not cover at home against Utah (D) in the Pac 12. Well, UTAH had its biggest win as a power conference team, humiliating Oregon in Eugene, 62-20!

USC (C, -5.5), to win and cover at Arizona St (H) in the Pac 12. And then some…

UCLA (B, -4), to win at Arizona (F), but by less than four, in the Pac 12. 33 is less than four, right? No? Shoot.

Tennessee (C, +1.5) upsets Florida (F) in Gainesville in the SEC. BOY, they should have…lost a wild game by one, 28-27! I guess we still covered…

Missouri (F, +3), despite last week’s debacle, upsets Kentucky (G) in the SEC. nope. KY 21, mo 13.

Texas A&M (B, -7.5) wins and covers against Arkansas (I) in the JerryDome in the SEC. Wins but doesn’t cover – went to ot, 28-21.

Mississippi St (C, +2.5) upsets Auburn (E) in Auburn in the SEC. Was that an upset? 17-9.

Memphis (I, -10.5) wins by less than that against Cincinnati (K) in the American. Yes, won 53-46.

Florida International (R) wins but can’t cover against newbie Charlotte (T) in Conference USA. We won this by half-a-point, 17-7 FIU.

New Mexico (Q, -3) covers at Wyoming (Q), last place in the ESPNPI, in the Mountain West. Yep. 38-28, ten-point win. Ding, ding, ding…

And finally, San Jose St (O, -4.5) wins and covers at home against Fresno St, in the MW West, where the entire conference schedule may be determined by who has the home field that game…YeS, 49-23, SJSU

Non-conference tilts of interest:

Boston College (F, -4) beats Northern Illinois (H) by more than Ohio St did last week!

Ehh..no, they only won by three (17-14). Close…

LSU has to GO to Syracuse? Who set THAT up? Anyway, the Tigers (A, -24) win but don’t cover because the Orange (M) turn off the heaters…correct – they won by ten, 34-24.

Indiana (J, -3) cover and win against Wake Forest (P), which Sagarin has as pick’m. yes. 31-24.

On Friday night, Boise St (E, -2.5) handles Virginia (K) with ease in the east. With ease. 56-14.

Up the road, Virginia Tech (D, -8) wins in East Carolina (K) Saturday by more than eight. WE MEANT LOSE BY SEVEN. Didn’t we? No? Oh well. Missed this one. ECU 35, vt 28.

BYU (B, +5.5) goes to Michigan (H), beats the spread but I can’t bring myself to say they win.

They didn’t. they barely made a first down. Michigan, 31-0. We won but missed ats.

Fascinating game: Kansas (Q, +12.5) at Rutgers (S). Let’s split the difference: Knights are a mess, but let’s say they win by a point or so over the worst team in Power 5 football. Rutgers won by 13. Looks like the oddsmakers were right…

Ohio (H, +10.5) may be a better team than Minnesota (I) right now, but they won’t be able to handle the Dramatic Gopher and lose by a missed field goal. EXACTLY RIGHT. 27-24, MINNESOTA.

Purdue (K, +1) isn’t favored over MAC’s Bowling Green (J), but we think they’ll upset them at home.

WE WERE WRONG. Bgsu SCORED A TD WITH NINE SECONDS TO GO TO WIN 35-28.

West Virginia (E, -17) all over old rival Maryland (L), gone to heck in the Big 10. YOU MIGHT SAY SO. 45-6, AND IT WASN’T THAT CLOSE.

Rivalling Rutgers/Kansas for mediocrity, Eastern Michigan (Q, -2.5) wins and covers against Army-West Point (R). Wrong. 58-36, Army.

SMU (N, -3) hosts FCS strongmen James Madison (P) (and is forgiven for doing so – any spread under ten makes it a worthy competition!) and wins and covers for its trouble. We meant JMU wins and covers for its trouble? No, that’s not what we said. (What we WISH we said…)

UTSA (Q, +9) hosts Colorado St (N) and should stay within a TD for their troubles, though the Rams win. Perfect. 33-31, rams.

Struggling with this one: Buffalo (P, -2) over Nevada by 3 or more, as much as I want to believe in UNR!

SHOULD’VE BELIEVED. 24-21, WOLFPACK. CLOSE GAME, AS EXPECTED, THOUGH.

Marshall (I, -9), only a single-digit favorite at Kent St (P)? Sigh. How the mighty have fallen. Give the points. OVERTIME.

We believe in Toledo (G, -7.5), but that extra half-point keeps us from saying they cover against Arkansas St (L), whom we also believe in. should’ve kept our belief – Toledo by thirty.

Games involving 1-A/1-AA matchups, or just amusing blowouts on a slow weekend…

Louisville (F, -20) wins and covers against Samford (S). Samford? Well, at least they have a WIN, Cardinals…45-3, cards. Surprise…

NC St (D, -17) covers AT South Alabama. How did the Jaguars get an ACC team to go THERE? 63-13 NC ST. again, surprise…

North Carolina (I, -39) annihilates Delaware (V – you hadn’t realized there WAS a “V”, had you?) Not an annihilation: Delaware covered, as unc “only” won 41-14.

Fool me once… Michigan St (B, -27) fails to cover against Central Mich (M) (correct: 30-10), and Ohio St (B, -31.5) fails to cover against Western Mich (P). CORRECT, 38-12. TWO-FOR-TWO.

Iowa (G, -24.5) by more than that over North Texas (T, the lowest FBS goes…).TOO EASY. 62-16.

Nebraska (G, -22) can’t cover against Southern Miss (M) (correct: 36-28), but Northwestern (E, -18.5 over Ball St – O) (NOPE - 24-19) and Wisconsin (yep – 28-zip) (C, -24.5 over Hawai’i – O) will.

Baylor’s (C, -34.5) rout of the week is over Rice (M), sadly the best of their opponents so far. (70-17 COUNTS AS A ROUT.) Next Week, Texas Tech.

Notre Dame (A, -28.5) will still be scoring on Tuesday against U Mass (R). SO IT’S 62-27 AFTER FOUR QUARTERS, EXCEPT…YES, THE IRISH SCORED AGAIN…

Technically, Friday’s game of Stanford (E, -15.5) at Oregon St (N) could have been in the conference section, but it gives the game too much credit. Or maybe it gives the Beavers too much credit…

OK, OSU was decent, but STANFORD COVERED, 42-24.

Colorado (M, -45), needs a game like this, at home against 28^th tiered Nicholls St (“b” – not “B”, the second tier, but “b”, the second time around) to win and beat even this spread. AND THEY DID. 48-0. The coach’s son even scored.

But it’s not as bad as Georgia (A, -58…that’s right; fifty-eight) who I suspect will ease up before they cover that against SWAC favorite-but-in-another-universe Southern University (T). Yes: 48-6.

South Carolina (H, -14.5) covers against UCF (L) barely, 31-14, but yes! and Mississippi (A, -24.5) covers at home v Vandy (I).

Western Kentucky (H, -20.5) should easily handle Miami of Ohio (Q).56-14 COUNTS AS “Easily”.

…but not as easily as UTEP (R, -30) defeats bottom feeder Incarnate Word (“b”).

Houston (E, -15) is a bad host to Texas St (P) (yes, 59-14 counts as a bad host), but not as bad as Alabama (B, -38) will be to UL-Monroe after the Tide lost last weekend at home. They’ll aim for a hundred…but settle for 34. Hmmm.

The dregs of the tawdry FBS line-up:

Penn St (L, -14.5) covers hosting San Diego St (Q).just barely (37-21), but then, we lost a few that closely, too, so we’ll take this one.

Illinois (M, -6.5) wins a close game against Middle Tennessee (K), who might win. Or not. Not. 27-25, illini. Nailed it.

Navy (G, -6.5) gets conference win #2 by 7 or more at U Conn (N). won by 10, 28-18.

Appalachian St (K, -7.5) wins but doesn’t cover at Old Dominion (P). won and covered by the end of the first quarter. 49-0.

Louisiana Tech (G, -14.5) covers over FIU (O). No they don’t! La-tech by ten, 27-17.

UL-Lafayette (M, +8.5) upsets Akron! No THEY DON’T! Akron, 35-14!

UNLV (Q, -17) defeats FCS contender Idaho St (S) but not by seventeen. No. BY 72. DOES THAT COUNT? (80-8, VEGAS.)

Here are the FCS games we’re interested in enough to express an opinion:

Liberty (N, +3.5) will upset Southern Illinois (Q). Bah! Siu 34-13…

Montana State (-5, Q) covers against Cal Poly (O), against our metric’s advice!

AND OUR METRIC ISN’T AS SMART AS WE ARE: 45-28, msu!

Montana (O, -7) covers at home v Northern Arizona (R). by nine, 23-14.

North Dakota (S, -1.5) by that and then some against UC Davis (X). by seven. 35-28.

Weber St (T, -8) covers at Northern Colorado. EASILY: 38-17.

Albany (X, -6) wins by less than six against Duquesne (V). Turns out three is less than six. 17-14, Albany.

Towson (S, -8.5) covers at Elon (W). no they don’t – they don’t even win. 17-13, elon.

Villanova (R, -30) can’t cover 30 over Penn (Z). (But they do win.) no they don’t: Penn, 24-13.

Abilene Christian (U, -3.5) covers against Stephen F Austin (V). missed covering by a half-point: they won by three, 35-32. Still counts as a loss ats. Durn.

Northwestern St (U, +4) upsets Central Arkansas (U). if they did, it wasn’t on the scoreboard…maybe they made a mess in the locker room. (49-21, cau.)

Houston Baptist (“a”, +47) stays within 46 of Sam Houston St (S). close – 63-14…

Charleston Southern (T, +9.5) upsets The Citadel (V). was it really an upset? 33-20, csu.

Coastal Carolina (O, -22) gets more of a fight than they want from Bryant (U), but wins. Boo-yah! 31-17, coastal! CC is a good team, but bryant’s better than you think!

Dayton (of the much besieged Pioneer League, U, -12) covers and defeats first year Kennesaw St (a). perhaps Kennesaw is a real team…31-27, Dayton.

Can Chattanooga (P, -29.5) cover against Presbyterian (W)? We’re guessing no. 21-0, so “NO”.

Furman (R, -23), fresh off their win at UCF, covers against VMI (X) at home. Nope: won by 3.

Eastern Kentucky (P, -27) by that and then some against woeful Austin Peay (“a”). by 38.

Tennessee St (U, -13) may beat Florida A&M (X), but not by two TDs…but we were close. 16 point win, not 13.

Morehead St may be an “X” and still favored by 19.5, but it’s Davidson – give the points.

And lo, there was carnage: 34-0, and it wasn’t that close.

Jacksonville (U, -17.5) may not be Jacksonville St (M, our FCS top team), but they can beat Marist (Y). Just…not by 17. How about by four? 20-16.

Yale (U, -18) covers v Cornell (a) (well, they won, but only by seven, 33-26); Lehigh (U, +12.5) stays close but loses at Princeton (W), and even though legendary 22-game losing streak-Columbia (“b”) is actually a half-point favorite at home v Georgetown (X)…, yeah, we’re picking Georgetown to win. Good call, ff: 31-24, Georgetown.

OH! BONUS PICK! Bethune-Cookman (T, -25) routs traditional thumping bag Savannah St (tier “b”, of course!). DUH! 42-12. B-C. WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?

THIS WEEKEND’S RESULTS: we did fairly well! 73-14 (84%) straight up, and 52-34-1 against the spread (60%), our best week yet.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 281-64 (81%) straight up, 188-155-2 against the spread (55%) this season.