Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?

Yes. Yes it is.

However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...

1. Ohio State                                       11. Stanford                                           21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor                                              12. Ole Miss                                          22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn                                            13. Arizona                                            23. BYU
4. Alabama                                          14. USC                                                  24. LSU
5. Michigan St                                    15. Boise State                                      25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU                                                  16. Clemson                                          26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame                                    17. Missouri                                          27. Utah
8. UCLA                                               18. Georgia                                           28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St                                        19. Arizona St                                       29. Texas
10. Oregon                                           20. Wisconsin                                      30. Michigan

 I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)

But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!

It's college bowl season - continued!

Here's week two of the FBS bowl season, from Dec 27 onwards (see our previous post for the first week's predictions), from ESPN, Sagarin, Vegas, and Following Football:

Dec 27                                           ESPN                  Sagarin                  Vegas           Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech:       Cinc by 6           Cinc by 0.2           Cinc by 3         Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St:                      ASU by 4        ASU by 6.6        ASU by 7.5    ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina:     Mia by 7            SC by 0.3            Mia by 3           SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St           PSU by 3          BC by 3                  BC by 2.5         BC by 2
Nebraska v USC:                         USC by 11        USC by 2.1         USC by 6.5   USC by 1

Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia      A&M by 1         A&M by 2.0     WV by 3.5        A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson:                OU by 11             OU by 5.6             OU by 3           OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas:                       Ark by 7           Ark by 12.4       Ark by 6        Ark by 1

Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU:                     LSU by 3            LSU by 12.7         LSU by 7          LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville:                   Lou by 4             UGA by 11.5     UGA by 6.5   UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford:                 Stan by 14      Stan by 11.2      Stan by 14     Stan by 6

Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU:                           TCU by 3         TCU by 1.4        TCU by 3       TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona:                      Ariz by 3            Ariz by 5.2            Ariz by 3.5       Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech:  GT by 4           MSU by 10.2        MSU by 6.5     MSU by 1

Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin:                  Aub by 7            Aub by 10.3          Aub by 6.5       Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor:                Bay by 7            Bay by 4.6             Bay by 3           Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota:               Mizz by 4       Mizz by 6.4        Mizz by 5      Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon:                   Ore by 11        Ore by 9.7          Ore by 9        Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama:                     Ala by 7             Ala by 4.3               Ala by 9.5       Ala by 3
  Jan 2
Pitt v Houston:                              Pitt by 4           Pitt by 3.1             Pitt by 3            Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee:                        Tenn by 11    Tenn by 6.3      Tenn by 3.5   Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA:                       KSU by 3          KSU by 5              KSU by 3           KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St:      UW by 14         UW by 5               UW by 5.5         UW by 7

Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida:             ECU by 4          Fla by 13.6        Fla by 7           Fla by 4

Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St:                 Toledo by 4       ArkSt by 0.3    Toledo by 3   Toledo by 1

Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.

Raiders win! Raiders W--- !...well, "Raiders Fail To Lose!" seems more accurate.

Last night the Oakland Raiders leaped out to a two TD lead on the Kansas City Chiefs, who were in between important games on a Thursday night in a mudpit in a stadium that only vaguely resembles an NFL facility. Eventually, Alex Smith led the Chiefs back, and by the fourth quarter had not only tied the game at 17 but moved ahead of the 0-10 Raiders, 20-17.

Should be lights out, right?

To their credit, the Raiders and Fresno St product Derek Carr went on a lengthy, game-defining drive that will rank as the highlight of the season if the rest goes the way it has been: eighteen plays, 80 yards, seven and one-half minutes, capped off by Carr's only touchdown pass of the night to put the Raiders safely ahead, 24-20, with under two minutes to go.

Yeah, but still...I mean, it's the Raiders, man! The Chiefs came back, right?

Well, they tried to. Smith led an, um, interesting drive which included a fourth down conversion attempt that failed...except that Oakland committed not one, not two, but three penalties on the game-winning play that prevented it from being the game-winning penalty.

They also had one of the most comical sacks in the history of football. The video of that, along with some fantastic writing and analysis from Bill Barnwell of Grantland, is in the link contained here. (Enjoy!) But yes, the Raiders won their first game in 52 1/2 weeks (short work week prevented 53!), outscoring the Chiefs 24-20 in Oakland last night.

So, who's still IN?

All season long, ESPN has played the "Eliminator" game, voting teams off the island each week who no longer have a chance to make the four team College Football playoff. 

It's been an interesting exercise, not unlike our 128 team tiering of the whole of the FBS landscape - half of their teams were eliminated the first week (and in truth, as they admit today, could have been before the season), but they're down to nine teams: Alabama, Arizona St, Baylor, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio St, Ole Miss, Oregon, and TCU.

Do you agree with their list? Those nine teams comprise the six "Tier A" teams, the one "B+" team, and two of our five other "Tier B" teams (the others are Auburn, Nebraska, and Notre Dame; we would argue that Nebraska still has a shot).

They also have an "On The Fence" category, which makes no sense to us - either you have a chance, or you don't. Simple. For whatever it's worth, they list Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Georgia, Kansas St, Michigan St, Nebraska, and UCLA in that category. It's impossible for us to consider the two and three loss teams on that list as viable; they won't consider Duke, even though they could be a one-loss ACC champ with a defeat of Florida St on their resume; and that just leaves Nebraska, as we said before.

SO...ten teams. Four weeks to go. Several of them play each other; they all have some tough tests ahead of them. Right now, here's our pecking order (COMPLETELY subject to change on a weekly basis!) ---- but the fun is in following the football and finding out what happens!

1. Mississippi St
2. Alabama
3. Florida St
4. TCU
5. Oregon
6. Baylor
7. Ohio St
8. Arizona St
9. Nebraska
10. Ole Miss

Reviewing our Week 10 predictions!

Well, if you've been with us this week, you know we've been firing on all cylinders in Week 10! Here's our results...

Successes: Bowling Green over Akron...NIU over Ball St...Temple closer than a TD to Memphis...Baylor destroying Oklahoma...Duke big over Syracuse...Army over UConn...TCU over Kansas St...LSU took Alabama to overtime....Toronto over Ottawa late...Hamilton wins against Montreal (half-credit)..,Cardinals big over the Rams. We'd like to be able to claim Minnesota's win over Iowa, but we didn't, so we can't.

Missteps: We said UL-Monroe would win against Appalachian St; the Warhawks gave up a late FG to lose 31-29...We were surprised Old Dominion beat FIU 38-35, but they had to score ten points in the last 65 seconds to do it...Ohio St beat Michigan St, on the road...Arizona St sure impressed us, handling Notre Dame...Didn't think Saskatchewan still had it in them to beat Edmonton...and the half-credit Hamilton was because we did NOT think the Tiger-Cats would win by enough to win the division (8). They won by fifteen. (Yes, that's more than eight.)

(And there's still the chance that Chicago could stay close to the Packers tonight.) So, right now, we are 10.5 - 5.5, so we will take that!

...and now, the nitty gritty details!

You'll notice, when you look at the new tiers for Week 10 of the NCAA FBS season, that we've started doing some more subdividing of the teams beyond the six-member tiers we'd cut them into previously. Treat the plus/minus markings the same way you would school grades (we ARE old school teachers, after all!) - a plus indicates that we think they're slightly better than the rest of the tier; a minus that they're slightly worse.

Also, you'll notice that Tier R is under investigation for steroid use, as it's grown abnormally large in a short time frame. Frankly, we didn't think those teams could be easily separated, so we didn't.

Later today, we'll post outright predictions for next week's games...and then we'll see how they compare with the Vegas betting lines. As those of you who were following our posts yesterday are aware,  our tier arrangement forecast games better than either Vegas OR our own personal instincts did this week for the college ranks. (The NFL has achieved such parity that it's a crapshoot each week; if we try this with the pros, it'll be a complete lark!) Regardless of the outcome - which we forbid you to use for betting purposes! - it should be interesting to follow!

As for specific details of the new arrangement:

1. We've chosen our Final Four - at least, for the moment! TCU and Alabama are clearly the most accomplished of the one-loss teams, with strong victories yesterday and elsewhere, along with the most tenuous of losses on their records (last second losses on the home field of top teams). They sit along side undefeated and proven Mississippi St and Florida St as the four best...for now.

2. Baylor, Oregon, and Ohio St are next in line. Again, they've shown their strength consistently, and particularly yesterday, and should be the next in if one of the four above falters.

3. If we had to rank right now, we'd go Bulldogs first, then the Crimson Tide, Seminoles, Horned Frogs, Ducks, Bears, and Buckeyes seventh.

4. Arizona St, Duke, and LSU are for real. While it's hard to picture them in the playoff at this point (especially the three-loss Bayou Bengals), they have shown doubters wrong throughout the season.

5. While they put up a battle yesterday after the outcome was decided, SMU is clearly #128 in the land. Which is such a shame, after all the work June Jones and others did to bring them back from literal extinction and the dregs where they've returned to. But as the only winless team in the FBS - and without anything even close to a win on their resume - we're forced to applaud effort at this stage, knowing they've no chance for competitiveness.  

What an insane afternoon of football!!!!

Auburn, how do you fumble on a spike play? Two fumbles in the last four hikes; the first recovery may be questionable, but the second...wow, what a devastating way to lose for their center.

Here's what a bottom-feeder "come from behind victory" looks like: Appalachian St had the ball inside the twenty under two minutes, down by a point, looking to defeat UL-Monroe...and threw three straight incompletions. Made the FG, luckily.

Northwestern, and coach Pat Fitzgerald: you've got balls. Down 10-9, having scored a TD with three seconds to go in the game, they went for two and the win, not the XP and overtime. Just because it failed doesn't make it a bad decision.

Arizona St had two pick-sixes against Notre Dame, the last one ugly - Notre Dame's Corey Robinson looks away before catching the ball, and then bats the ball upwards perfectly for Lloyd Carrington to pick and six it. Under coach Todd Graham, ASU is 7-6 against ranked opponents; before that, they were 5-41!

We're not sure we're all that impressed with Ole Miss' performance against lower-level Presbyterian today: yes, seven of their drives resulted in TDs, but the others were two missed FGs, two missed fourth downs, one interception, and one which ended the game. Eh...

Michigan @ Northwestern, by the way, hit halftime tied at zero. Only three games in the FBS have had scoreless first halves this season...and two of them were at Northwestern. (The other was against Northern Illinois.) The two Wildcat scoring drives were 14 plays for 74 yards, and 19 plays for 95 yards. By the way, the 19 play drive was the field goal drive!

Texas A&M was a 23 point underdog on the road, so it was going to take some breaks to beat Auburn today. They got some late - the new definition of "buttfumble", discussed above - but also early, where they scored on a 60-yard pass on the fourth play, recovered an Auburn fumble on the fifth play, and scored on another long pass on the eighth play. 14-0. They ALSO got a break in the middle: on a long Auburn FG attempt to end the first half, a stray hand in the middle happened to hit the flight of the ball, an A&M player happened to retrieve it on the bounce, and he made it to the end zone (again, last play of the half: he had to) to switch from 28-20 to a 35-17 lead. PS: Texas A&M won by three.

The two major teams from the state of GEORGIA were insanely efficient today! For the Georgia Bulldogs, the only drives in which they did NOT score a touchdown were at the end of each half - meaning they never turned the ball over, never punted, and converted every set of downs, in winning 63-31 over Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets went to North Carolina St and possessed the ball a mere eight times: six touchdown drives, one fumble, and one 12-play drive that ended the game. To compare, somehow the Wolfpack had eleven drives, because two of those ended in touchdowns for GT instead in the 56-23 victory.

An interesting quote from the ESPN.com coverage of Penn St's victory over Indiana 13-7: "(Bill) Belton's fifth score of the year came on a 92-yard run and was the longest rushing touchdown by a single player in Penn St history." [our emphasis]

While you ponder what that means, we read much farther down the article: "Back in 1973, the Nittany Lions scored on a 92-yard play, but that was by two players and included a fumble." OOOOOhhhhhhh....

Somehow, Baylor had not beaten a top 25 team on the road in 38 attempts, or since 1991. After Oklahoma took a 14-3 into the second quarter, the Bears scored the last 45 points to walk away with the game, 48-14.

A poignant moment: OU's quarterback Trevor Knight went out of the game in the fourth with a scary injury, undiagnosed publicly last we heard. While he was being tended to, several Baylor players (including QB Bryce Petty) went to Knight's brother Connor and prayed with him on the field. 

Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...

Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!). 

Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...

Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).

Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.

Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.

Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.

Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.

Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. 

We've reached the Week 8 CFB tiers Penthouse!

That's right, the thirty best teams as decided on the field so far this year, divided into the top five tiers (and no closer, as berated before!), for your amusement!

Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]

Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!

Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12). 

Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).

As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!

Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though! 

[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]

Interesting games this weekend...

Here are the college games that will keep us attentive this weekend...

In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!

Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...

Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!

Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...

Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.

We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.

Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...

What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?

How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?

Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)

Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....

The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!

South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).

The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!

Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).

Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.