Bonus college coverage of the Weird, Wild, and Wondrous!

Some interesting / amusing / head-scratching / curious notes from the weekend's action...

1. Kansas State marching band apologizes to Univ of Kansas for ramming a Jayhawk with the Star Trek Enterprise in their marching show. So, the marching band wars have begun...

2. After missing 2/3 of the season last year, Heisman candidate Taysom Hill of BYU will miss all but one half of football in 2015 after injuring his foot against Nebraska yesterday. We feel absolutely heartbroken for the young man, who is nothing but impressive when you hear him speak and watch him perform on the field. Having said that, his back-up is a local Idaho boy, Tanner Mangum, who literally got back from his mission just three months ago and is already a hero after the Hail Mary that made the Cougars 1-0 this season.

3. Similarly, the top defensive player in the country, Scoobie Wright of Arizona, also got injured this weekend, but with surgery should be back in a month or so. Wright is a transcendent player, and you wonder whether a repaired knee will maintain his remarkable athleticism, no matter how "minor" the surgery. Prayers.

4. Thanks to a blocked extra point by the Aggies in the first, much of the Southern Utah/Utah State game took place with the scoreboard set at 6-5. Utah State may have been the least impressive winner of the weekend, lucking out with a punt return TD in the last six minutes to win the game. But their offense did nothing, even with "Chuckie" back at the the helm, against an FCS team. A field goal on a short field, the two point XP which was the difference on the scoreboard, and the special teams touchdown were all they could produce against a lower-echelon team from the Big Sky. Hardly the stuff of the potential Mountain West "favorite". 

5. Week One routs were the order of the day in some parts of the world. We understand the theory, the mutual back-scratching that goes on in these games: The powerhouse conference team wants an easy warm-up game to start the season; the lower-level team needs the paycheck from the host team to balance their athletic budget - win/win situation. But it makes for some unwatchable games: Syracuse 47, Rhode Island 0; Wake Forest 41, Elon 3; Georgia Tech 69, Alcorn St 6; Miami-FL 45, Bethune-Cookman 0... and that was just in the ACC! Of course, when you get the really weak teams like Savannah State or Davidson, you get games with more penalties than offensive yards, with more turnovers than first downs, and so forth. Read the play-by-plays of either of the games these two played on Saturday, and imagine what motivation it would take to watch the game (unless you love car wrecks...).

6. Not a funny...New Mexico State not only got robbed on the field by Florida, they got robbed off the field as burglars broke into their busses and stole the athletic staff's bags. 

7. What do you do if you can't get off the field in time? Like, say, when your shoe comes off? If you play for Bowling Green, you play dead. If you play quarterback for Tennessee, you're not too happy about it....

8. Oh! We almost forgot to mention the name font on Louisville's unis yesterday! 

Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?

Yes. Yes it is.

However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...

1. Ohio State                                       11. Stanford                                           21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor                                              12. Ole Miss                                          22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn                                            13. Arizona                                            23. BYU
4. Alabama                                          14. USC                                                  24. LSU
5. Michigan St                                    15. Boise State                                      25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU                                                  16. Clemson                                          26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame                                    17. Missouri                                          27. Utah
8. UCLA                                               18. Georgia                                           28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St                                        19. Arizona St                                       29. Texas
10. Oregon                                           20. Wisconsin                                      30. Michigan

 I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)

But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!

It's college bowl season - continued!

Here's week two of the FBS bowl season, from Dec 27 onwards (see our previous post for the first week's predictions), from ESPN, Sagarin, Vegas, and Following Football:

Dec 27                                           ESPN                  Sagarin                  Vegas           Following F
Cincinnati v Virginia Tech:       Cinc by 6           Cinc by 0.2           Cinc by 3         Cinc by 6
Duke v Arizona St:                      ASU by 4        ASU by 6.6        ASU by 7.5    ASU by 4
Miami-FL v South Carolina:     Mia by 7            SC by 0.3            Mia by 3           SC by 1
Boston College v Penn St           PSU by 3          BC by 3                  BC by 2.5         BC by 2
Nebraska v USC:                         USC by 11        USC by 2.1         USC by 6.5   USC by 1

Dec 29
Texas A&M v West Virginia      A&M by 1         A&M by 2.0     WV by 3.5        A&M by 2
Oklahoma v Clemson:                OU by 11             OU by 5.6             OU by 3           OU by 1/2
Arkansas v Texas:                       Ark by 7           Ark by 12.4       Ark by 6        Ark by 1

Dec 30
Notre Dame v LSU:                     LSU by 3            LSU by 12.7         LSU by 7          LSU by 5
Georgia v Louisville:                   Lou by 4             UGA by 11.5     UGA by 6.5   UGA by 3
Maryland v Stanford:                 Stan by 14      Stan by 11.2      Stan by 14     Stan by 6

Dec 31
Ole Miss v TCU:                           TCU by 3         TCU by 1.4        TCU by 3       TCU by 2
Boise St v Arizona:                      Ariz by 3            Ariz by 5.2            Ariz by 3.5       Ariz by 4.5
Mississippi St v Georgia Tech:  GT by 4           MSU by 10.2        MSU by 6.5     MSU by 1

Jan 1
Auburn v Wisconsin:                  Aub by 7            Aub by 10.3          Aub by 6.5       Aub by 2
Michigan St v Baylor:                Bay by 7            Bay by 4.6             Bay by 3           Bay by 3.5
Missouri v Minnesota:               Mizz by 4       Mizz by 6.4        Mizz by 5      Mizz by 2.5
Florida St v Oregon:                   Ore by 11        Ore by 9.7          Ore by 9        Ore by 3
Ohio St v Alabama:                     Ala by 7             Ala by 4.3               Ala by 9.5       Ala by 3
  Jan 2
Pitt v Houston:                              Pitt by 4           Pitt by 3.1             Pitt by 3            Pitt by 1
Iowa v Tennessee:                        Tenn by 11    Tenn by 6.3      Tenn by 3.5   Tenn by 3
Kansas St v UCLA:                       KSU by 3          KSU by 5              KSU by 3           KSU by 2
Washington v Oklahoma St:      UW by 14         UW by 5               UW by 5.5         UW by 7

Jan 3
East Carolina v Florida:             ECU by 4          Fla by 13.6        Fla by 7           Fla by 4

Jan 4
Toledo v Arkansas St:                 Toledo by 4       ArkSt by 0.3    Toledo by 3   Toledo by 1

Now, if the predictions hold true, we'll be previewing the Oregon/Alabama national championship game on January 12th in the new year. And remember, not only will we be tallying our Following Football predictions compared to that of the casinos, but also running a pure count of how many games each of the four predictors does forecasting 39 games where the teams have had a month to both rust and prepare.

New Year's Six bowl games in progress!

JAN 1 UPDATE: Watching three really great bowl games simultaneously: Wisconsin finding a way to come back and defeat Auburn 34-31, using a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon running wild, as he has against everyone except Playoff contenders, it seems...Minnesota's  Maxx Williams hurdling Missouri players en route to a touchdown...Baylor's Bryce Petty throwing touchdowns to targets large and small, including a 400-pound target "wearing" a receiver's number as a half shirt!

There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)

Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!

What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year! 

Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?

HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.

Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers,  all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.

Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.

Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).



DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of  the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".

Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....

Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...

Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!

Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.

In one of the least shocking election results of the year...

...Marcus Mariota of the Oregon Ducks won the Heisman Trophy tonight as the outstanding ball-handling college football player from a really good team in the country. (Don't deny it. That's what it's been.) Mostly, it's been quarterbacks over the years, especially the last decade-plus, when except for 'Bama's Mark Ingram, every winner in years starting with a "2" has been a quarterback.

The top players at each position were singled out over the past week at the various award shindigs, with these consensuses (consensi?) reached:

Top quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Oregon. Lots of great QBs out there - why, Ohio St has a slough of them! - but Mariota absolutely deserves every accolade he gets.
Top running back: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. Great from start to finish, but it was his 408 in three quarter against the vaunted "Blackshirts" that was his Mona Lisa.
Top receiver: Amari Cooper, Alabama. In a year of great receivers - and great FRESHMAN receivers in particular! - Cooper lived up to his hype week after week, and deserved his moment in the Heisman spotlight today.
Top tight end: Nick O'Leary, Florida St. A great TE is ideally both a great blocker AND has great receiving skills. O'Leary does.
Top center: Reese Dismukes, Auburn. We'll be honest: we have no idea who the best offensive linemen are. But we know which teams have the best lines, and Auburn and Iowa certainly are on that short list.
Top interior lineman: Brandon Scherff, Iowa.

Top defensive player: Scooby Wright, Arizona. A spectacular player. Magnetized to the ball, as he always seems to be around it. But it wasn't one of those years when there was a serious defensive threat to the MVP campaigns of Mariota and others, as there is on the NFL side.
Top defensive end: Nate Orchard, Utah.
Top linebacker: Eric Kendricks, UCLA.
Top defensive back: Gerod Hollimon, Louisville.
Top placekicker: Brad Craddock, Maryland. This was our biggest surprise - Robert Agouyo at Florida St was the defending "best" and certainly didn't do anything to lose the title.
Top punter: Tom Hackett, Utah. As an Aussie football player, Hackett's skills there serve him extremely well punting - not kicking for height but to place the ball where he wants to place it.


Top scholar/athlete: David Helton, Duke.
Top coach: Gary Patterson, TCU. As always, a crowded field: hard not to include both Mississippi coaches, Jerry Kill at Minnesota, David Cutcliffe at Duke, Paul Johnson at GT, Urban Meyer at Ohio St... But Patterson may have been the only one who transformed his own style to fit the circumstance, to great success.

Do you agree? Comment and let us know!

Givin' a little love to the Broncos...

While we cover football on a national international level here at Following Football, we're really just a very small contingent based in Idaho, USA - and when you talk football in Idaho, you have to start with the Little Engine that Could, the Boise State Broncos college football team. From its roots as Boise Junior College in the 30s through the early 60s, through the BSC years in Division II, and then as a university moving into what was then called "Division 1-AA" (where they won a national title in 1980), and finally moving up into Division 1A in the lowly Big West, then to the WAC, and finally (so far) into the Mountain West conference...Boise State's football program has been amazingly and consistently successful at every level. 

For most non-potato-bred fans, their familiarity with the Boys on the Blue starts with arguably the Best College Football game of the Century (at least it's in the conversation) - the 43-42 "upset" of Oklahoma in their first Fiesta Bowl appearance on New Year's Day, 2007. (We say "upset" because most folks fail to remember that while OU was a huge betting favorite, Boise was undefeated and actually two spots ahead of the 10-2 Sooners in the polls.) Watch the game again - Boise actually dominated the game, controlling the line of scrimmage on offense AND defense, and led 28-10 in the third quarter, looking to put away the disgruntled Sooners with ease...when they muffed a punt return, giving OU the ball for a short field, a quick TD, and the game was on. From there, re-invigorated, Oklahoma kisked a FG to bring themselves within eight at the start of the fourth quarter, and scored a TD with less than two minutes to play, followed by the wackiest set of two-point attempts you'll ever see (they succeeded - called back on OU penalty; they failed - called back on a BSU penalty; they succeeded the third time to tie at 28-28).

Then the fun began.

Given the ball with 1:06 to go, Boise QB Jared Zabransky immediately threw a pick-six and "lost" the game, 35-28. The narrative became, "The plucky little team held fast against the big bad seven-time national champs all game long, but eventually it was just too much for them." And then, first-year coach Chris Petersen started in on his bag of tricks. (Until then, he'd not needed them - as I said, they'd been winning 'conventionally' all game long.) Facing fourth and eighteen at midfield, down to under twenty seconds to play, they called the "hook-and-ladder" play: Zabransky to Drisan James, who tossed it to Jerard Rabb running full speed the other way and barely made it into the corner of the end zone for the tying TD.

Still not over. Tie game: Overtime.

Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson (great college running back - wonder whatever happened to him?) sliced through the exhausted Bronco defense like warm butter. Uh-0h, thought coach Petersen. We can't keep going like this. So when the Broncos scored their touchdown (on a halfback pass on fourth down, of course...), Petersen went for two and the chance to win or lose right there. One play, for the Fiesta Bowl championship.

The Statue of Liberty.

Famously, receiver Legadu Naanee, standing on the sideline when the play was called, immediately said, "We just won the game." The combination of the audacity of the call, as Pat Forde puts it, and the upset victory itself drove the stadium (and the country) into pandemonium...ratcheted up one more notch a few minutes later when, during an interview on national TV following his game winning two-point scamper, running back Ian Johnson proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend and shocked the poor interviewer. I love Johnson's casual explanation for the timing: "There's no better time than on national TV after the game-winning two-point conversion."

After that game, the Bronco legend took on steam. They went 12-1 and 11-1 in back to back seasons without returning to the BCS (but while watching Hawaii go and fail completely), until they returned in 2010, as the first team to "earn" a berth from an 'inferior' conference (rather than get the automatic non-power conference bid for being top 12)...only to play the OTHER non-power conference team, TCU (at the time, still a Mountain West member, while BSU played in the WAC), and win 17-10. 

As you'll read in this article from long-time ESPN Bronco writer Andrea Anderson, that Fiesta Bowl legacy is what drew many of the current players to Boise State. It's a heritage that they're eager to live up to. Personally, although Arizona will be higher ranked and essentially playing at home, although this 11-2 Bronco team objectively isn't as good as the previous BCS teams they've sent, I won't bet against the Boys from the Blue. The Wildcats probably don't realize what this game means to Boise St. They'll think of it as a home game.

A home-away-from-home game. 

Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...

Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!). 

Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...

Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).

Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.

Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.

Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.

Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.

Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. 

Looking forward to Week 9 in college football with our SCIENTIFIC tools!

There are some great games coming this weekend, the first one on Thursday night when Tier F Louisville hosts Tier A Florida St! By tiering, the best game of the weekend should be Auburn @ Ole Miss, where the polls have the Tigers above the Rebels, but we have Ole Miss in Tier A and Auburn a rung lower in B; hence, we're favoring Ole Miss (and, if we were actually making bets, "taking the points").

Other marquee games include TCU @ West Virginia (tiers A vs. C), Kentucky @ Missouri (tiers D vs. E; unlike the oddsmakers, we like the Wildcats), Arkansas @ Mississippi St (tiers H vs. A), Arizona @ UCLA (again, they're favoring the lower tiered team, so we'll take tier C Arizona and the points over the tier E Bruins), and Stanford @ Oregon.

Going strictly by tiers, and using the old saw about home field being about a three-point advantage, we've noticed that the point spread for this week's games generally matches up very well with our 20-tier system. As a general rule, the expected margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-2.5 points per tier, plus or minus the three points for the home field. The actual average is 1.75 points per tier, with the median at 1.5 points per tier. So, if two teams are four tiers apart on last week's listing, expect the higher team to be favored by 4-10 points, most likely 6-7, + the three points for home field.

Given those parameters, and strictly using our wisened separation tool better known as "guessing" where teams should fall, we took a look at the 54 FBS games scheduled this weekend for "outliers" to see if there were some easy predictions we could make based on this statistical creation:

Predictions based on our tier system and the Vegas odds...

*Iowa should be favored by more than 4 at home against Northwestern.
*Rutgers shouldn't be eleven point underdogs at home against Wisconsin (more like 2).
*Florida International shouldn't be 6 1/2 point dogs at home to Rice (also about 2).
*Why is Duke not favored over Pitt? Tier D over tier I? They should be giving points!
*North Carolina will be closer to the Hurricanes than seventeen points...
*Boston College shouldn't be getting points from Virginia Tech (or, at least not three)!
*Eastern Michigan shouldn't be more than about a touchdown underdog to Central Michigan (not 16 1/2 points, anyway!). 
*Louisiana Tech should be a much bigger favorite over Tier R Western Kentucky - six points at home isn't sufficient.
*Virginia at Georgia Tech shouldn't be just the three point home field advantage...the Yellowjackets deserve at least a TD spread in their favor.
*Part of the continued over-valuing of the Cougars after Tayson Hill's injury: Middle Tennessee should NOT be the underdog at home again BYU.
*And Kentucky should be favored over Missouri - or at least, not down six!
*We see both UNLV and Ole Miss as higher tiered teams at home (against New Mexico and Auburn, respectively), and with the three-point home bump should be more than one and two point faves, in turn. More like five each.
*Oklahoma St will be a one TD underdog to Kansas St, not two.
*Arizona will flat out beat UCLA in Los Angeles, not lose by four.
*Fresno St may be favored at home, but Wyoming shouldn't be getting 10 1/2 points!
*See previous comment with Utah not getting five points against Arizona St!
*Finally, it's hard to estimate what the trip to the islands does to a team, but we think Utah St deserves more love than a three point spread when they play at Hawaii late Saturday night!

We'll see how those predictions go this weekend! Eighteen chances to be proven wrong! A prognosticator's dream!

Loose ends from Week 8...

Savannah St fell to 0-8 yesterday, losing at North Carolina Central 42-21. They have now lost seventeen in a row...

On the flip side, the defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison won 47-7 over South Dakota to move to 8-0, and consecutive win number 32...

The Arizona Cardinals had two 75+ yard pass plays for touchdowns, the last under two minutes to go, to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. What were the odds of the Cards being two full games up on Seattle AND San Francisco after Week 8?...

Have you seen the standings in the AFC North? All four teams are within a half-game of each other: Cincinnati at 4-2-1, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5-3, and Cleveland at 4-3!...

Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is below .500 - Carolina leads at 3-4-1, the Saints are at 2-4 pending tonight's game, Atlanta fell to 2-6 after leading 21-0 at halftime, and Jacksonville is...Jacksonville...

TCU scored 82 points on Texas Tech yesterday, a real FBS school. This was the highest point total of the year, surpassing North Texas' defeat of Nicholls St 77-3, which we argue SHOULD NOT COUNT because it was against an FCS team (never mind that it was an 0-9 school who lost by two TDs to a Division II team). So, for that reason, glad TCU set the new season high. (If those games don't count towards your win total for bowl games, they shouldn't count for anything else, either!)...

That wasn't the only high number put up Saturday - Georgia Southern put 69 on Georgia St (69-31), Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion 66-51, and Tier C Arizona took out Washington St 59-37, only after having shifted into low gear for the fourth quarter...

And in the FCS, not only did Alcorn St ruin the last game at Blackshaw Field for Prairie View by scoring 77 on them (winning 77-48), but Murray St laid a woodshed whoop'n on Kentucky Wesleyen 86-29... and it should've been worse, except they hung onto the ball for the last seven minutes, finishing the game by kneeling on the KW seven yard line... 

Michigan St scored a last minute TD against Michigan to stretch their winning margin to 35-11. Why? Because the Wolverine players were jerks. Apparently, they decided to 'stake' the center Spartan when they came out onto the field, always a wise move against your cross-state rival when they're 7-1 and you're falling apart at the seams. Our early candidate for stupid jerk move of the year...

In the pros, Geno Smith of the New York Jets posted one of the saddest stat lines ever before being pulled for Michael Vick (who didn't help much, either, as Buffalo creamed them): 2 for 8, for five yards, w 3 interceptions. A rating of 0.0; perfection!

On the flip side, having already lauded Ben Roethlisberger's day for the Steelers, let's check the great Tom Brady's line for the New England Patriots: 30-35 for 354 yards, five TDs and no picks. Pats beat the Bears 51-23.

Forecasts for Week 8!

Looking through the oddsmakers' choices and spreads (and again, we do not advocate betting on football or any sport! It's just a device we use to estimate probable outcomes of games!), there aren't very many spots where we disagree with Vegas. Here are the most obvious:

In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!

We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!

We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.

Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.

Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!

In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.

Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title. 

Without further ado...the Week 6 Tiers!

Tier 1
Alabama (5-1, thanks to a blocked XP), Baylor (6-0, thanks to local timekeepers), Florida St (6-0, thanks to the Tallahassee PD), Mississippi St (6-0, legitimately), Notre Dame (6-0, no thanks to the stud QBing for North Carolina) , Ole Miss (also legit 6-0), Oregon (5-1), and TCU (4-1 and deserving of Tier 1 by proving against OU and Baylor that they deserve to be up here!).

Tier 2
Auburn (5-1 and probably just on vacation from the top tier), Arizona (5-1, and a failed two-pt conversion from undefeated), Georgia (5-1, after proving they are not just Todd Gurley), LSU (5-2), Michigan St (5-1, but they'd prefer three-quarter games), Oklahoma (5-1; see Auburn), Oklahoma St (5-1), and UCLA (4-2, all due to Brett Hundley).

Tier 3
Clemson (4-2), Duke (5-1), Georgia Tech (5-1), Kansas St (4-1), Nebraska (5-1, higher if we could forget McNeese St), Ohio St (4-1), Texas A&M (5-2, and our pastor will never set foot in the state of Mississippi again!), and USC (4-2).

Tier 4
Arizona St (4-1), Kentucky (5-1, and a 3OT loss from perfection), Louisville (5-2), Marshall (6-0, and a decent schedule away from perfection), Missouri (4-2, embarrassed by Georgia yesterday), Stanford (4-2), West Virginia (4-2), and Utah (4-1, and getting the hang of this Pac-12 thing).

Tier 5
Maryland (4-2), Minnesota (5-1, thanks to a great runback for the winning TD), Oregon St (4-1), Penn St (4-2 and fading), Rutgers (5-1), Virginia (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), and Washington (kur man Chris Petersen is starting to get the 5-1 Huskies moving smoothly!).

Tier 6
Arkansas (4-2, the lowest ranked SEC West team is still on the board!), Boston College (4-2), BYU (4-2 and falling faster than PSU), Colorado St (5-1 and on the rise), Florida (3-2, and the biggest mystery in the nation), Iowa (5-1), Miami-FL (4-3), and Utah St (4-2 and more and more looking like the cream of the MWC).

Tier 7
Air Force (4-2, and brought back to earth by USU), Boise St (4-2), Bowling Green (5-2), California (5-2, waxed by Washington), Northwestern (3-3), South Carolina (3-3), Tennessee (3-3), and Wisconsin (4-2).

On the outside, looking in...
Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Houston, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech...

Arizona "Rodney Dangerfield" Wildcats!

Tonight, tenth-ranked Arizona's hosting unranked Southern Cal. Despite what you'd think, it's the Trojans who are the two-point favorites. How many times has a Top Ten team been an underdog to an unranked opponent? Well, in the last twenty years, it's happened six other times...but always when they were on the road. Arizona's the first top ten team to be SO disrespected that Vegas doesn't even like them at home. Bear Down, Wildcats... you're only down 14-6 at the half!

How did we do on last week's predictions? Let's find out...

Places We Looked Brilliant:
    Arizona not only covered at Oregon... Louisville handled Syracuse with ease...Utah State not only  covered, not only defeated BYU, but basically eliminated their chances of success this year by breaking Tayson Hill's leg...we looked prescient picking Air Force over Navy, and California winning a WILD game over Washington State, in which the Wazzu QB threw for a record 744 yards, and was undone by a missed 19-yard last second field goal!...We also projected FCS losses for UC Davis and (surprise, surprise!) Savannah State, and a tight game between Montana State and my alma mater Sacramento State, which turned into a really exciting, back-and-forth 59-56 Bobcat win.

Places We Looked Like Stevie Wonder Judging A Beauty Contest:
   San Diego State failing to cover against Fresno State...neither did Texas A&M against Mississippi State, or LSU versus Auburn...Florida barely scraped by Tennessee after switching quarterbacks (probably for good), East Carolina couldn't annihilate SMU after all, who scored 24 points, tripling their season total!...TCU was much better against Oklahoma than expected, and so was Idaho (congrats, Vandals!).

And, Somewhere In The Grey Area Where We All Spend Most Of Life:
NCAA,    Florida State 43, Wake Forest 3...Notre Dame/ Stanford had the same three point spread Vegas predicted, as did Oregon State/Colorado. After the Charlie Weis firing, Kansas did as expected and played inspired football...for a while, before West Virginia put them away 33-14. Michigan did indeed play Rutgers close before losing 26-24. Finally, the Boise State / Nevada game was back and forth, as expected, with the Broncos winning a wild game 52-47.