Some FCS predictions to stir the pot...

Yesterday, we posted our predictions for the FBS conferences, and today it's time for the FCS conferences - the "Football Championship Series", which means that they have a playoff system to select their champion, unlike the FBS, who...um, now has a playoff to select their champion.

Well, at least it's still true that the FBS teams have bowl games to look forward to, unlike the FCS teams, who...well, actually, the MEAC and the SWAC have pulled out of the playoff system to have their champions meet in the, uh, Celebration Bowl. Hmmmm.

So much for differences. So, from now on, we really need to stop calling them "FBS" and "FCS", and call them what they used to be: 1-A and 1-AA. Here we go! 

Missouri Valley Conference:
The strongest conference in the FCS, unquestioned. Both finalists came from the MVC last year, with North Dakota St beating Illinois St in a thrilling final. This year, expect those teams 1-2 in the conference again, with followers Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, Youngstown St, and Indiana St all making plans for the playoffs as well. Below them, only South Dakota is sure not to make the playoffs, with slots 7-8-9 filled by Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Missouri St. 

Big Sky Conference:
The top four teams this year will probably match last year's, including repeating champion Eastern Washington on their fire-red field (so hard to look at!), with fellow playoff teams Montana, Montana St, and newcomer Idaho St. After them, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona will be fighting it out for 5th; Sacramento St should land around 7th; Weber St and Southern Utah should be able to win enough to move up towards 8th; and the bottom four teams should be Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.


Southland Conference:
Third in strength, the Southland houses the biggest threat to North Dakota St's possible five-peat (you read that right: five), Sam Houston St. Behind them, Stephen F Austin University and Southeast Louisiana are the only real threats to their title aspirations in the conference, and should both make the playoffs as well. Central Arkansas should be a solid 4th, unable to defeat the three teams above them but better than the other seven. The middle of the pack will be McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar; while the three bottom of the pack teams continue to be Incarnate Word, Nicholls St, and Houston Baptist.  

Colonial Athletic Association:
New Hampshire and Villanova should be fighting it out for the conference title, but are probably not a threat to steal the national title from NDSU. James Madison and then Richmond will probably each put together seasons worthy of playoff selection, but fall behind UNH and the Wildcats. William and Mary is the class of the rest, followed closely by a large pack including Albany, Stony Brook, Maine, Delaware, and Towson. Elon and Rhode Island will bring up the rear. 

Seventeen of the twenty-four playoff spots should go to those four conferences, still the powers of the FCS. Below them, four other conferences will look to scrape up the scraps:

Big South Conference:
As opposed to the Southland, the Big South was ruled by Coastal Carolina until they were upended by Liberty at the end of the season; this year, Coastal should return the favor and finish their undefeated league season, with Liberty's one loss to them and both heading into the post-season. They'll be followed in order by Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, and first-year football team Kennesaw State! 

The Southern Conference:
As opposed to the Southland OR the Big South, the Southern will be dominated by Chattanooga this year, with Samford and Wofford their sidekicks, waiting outside when the playoffs start and only their champion is invited. Behind them will be the trio of Western Carolina, The Citadel and Furman; Mercer in 7th, VMI in 8th, and first-year football team East Tennessee State in 9th! (And yes, the first game for each first year team is against each other! How perfect is that?) 

Ohio Valley Conference:
Three teams should make the playoffs here, if the breaks go their direction: champion Jacksonville St, a possible top ten team, and hopefully both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky have the strength to beat everyone except J-State and possibly each other on their schedule and make the playoffs as wild cards. 

Pioneer Football League:
What the Sun Belt is to FBS football, the Pioneer League is to the FCS. We guarantee that someone will win. Officially. However, the highest rated teams in the Pioneer would be the lowest rated in any of those top four conferences, and the only thing from Following Football simply renaming PFL as "the Bottom Eight" or however many we're keeping track of this year would be Savannah St, Houston Baptist, Davidson... actually, even the two new schools might be better. In the "add insult to irony" category, the league champs the first two years (San Diego in '13; Jacksonville in '14) were each ineligible to attend the playoffs last year due to indiscrepancies in financing (it's expensive to be not quite as bad as the other teams!). This year, we're hoping to see the winner (probably Jacksonville) actually get the chance to attend the FCS playoffs and get their whuppin' fair and square. 

Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at the bottom of the Pioneer as well as the other bottom feeder teams; we'll also examine the four leagues which don't take part in the Football Championship Subdivision Championships because...er...ah...well. We'll take a look anyway. (And we'll recap the 24 teams we expect to see in the December playoffs competing for the DIVISION 1-AA TITLE!...which the NCAA will insist on calling the FCS championship. Because - hypocrisy. But then, it IS the NCAA!)

PREDICTIONS for Week 15!

Here we go! After a break-even week during the last regular season week of FBS games (although, remember that to our credit, we don't just have to be on the correct side of the line - we have to be closer to the actual result than Vegas was! Much harder to do!), we strive to call the quarter finals for the FCS playoffs and Week 15 of the NFL season...

[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]

THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.

FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.

SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!

FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!

SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!

Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants  over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah! 

MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.

So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...

So much for that 33-game winning streak!

The defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison didn't just lose yesterday, they were  almost shut out by division rival Northern Iowa, 23-3.

The Bison's 33 game winning streak, encompassing three national championships, was the longest in FCS history. But against the 19th ranked Panthers, they were outgained 306-175, doubled up in first downs, 16-8, went one for fourteen in 3rd down conversions, rushed 28 times and gained only 43 yards, and (with the exception of a turnover on the UNI 12, when they scored their FG) had the following starting field positions, ALL in their own territory: the 25, the 3, the 10, 37, 34, 20, 25, 42, 18, the 8, and the 20. 

On the far end of the spectrum, the two 0-9 teams we follow went to 0-10 yesterday: Rhode Island fell to 8-1 New Hampshire 41-14, while Savannah St lost 51-21 to visiting Howard University. Those streaks now extend to 14 and 19, respectively.

In the Big Sky conference, Eastern Washington beat traditional champ Montana 36-28 on the red field in Cheney to remain in control of the conference title, although four teams share the lead in the loss column: EWU, Northern Arizona, Montana St, and surprising Idaho St, winners against Cal Poly SLO yesterday at home to get to 7-3. In 2013, they went 3-9, the three wins coming against Northern Colorado and two D2 teams; they finished the season on a six-game losing streak and having failed nine of their last ten excursions. Now, they're two games from a playoff berth!

FCS Week 9 in review

Truth be told, we only do a partial review of the FCS level - basically, as reader interest dictates, or ours! - so if you're interested in a team we don't discuss, let us know!

So, North Dakota St won number 33 in a row, after a slight scare (down three at the half) against South Dakota St, 37-17; meanwhile, Rhode Island dropped its 13th straight and Savannah St its 18th in a row...

And in the Big Sky, Eastern Washington annihilated North Dakota 54-3; Cal Poly knocked off previous leaders Montana St 35-27, and Idaho St kept up their turnaround season by winning at Portland St, 31-13.

Finally, Harvard beat Dartmouth 23-12 in the battle of Ivy League unbeatens today!