Showing posts with label Ottawa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ottawa. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Prophecies for the second week of November - professional division!

Yesterday, we posted the Following Football ACNC predictions for the college games of the week (since the MAC starts on Tuesday for a few weeks, giving us something like 26 days of non-stop football! WHOOPEE!). Today, let's dive into the pros on our normal Wednesday edition of Prophecies In Phootball!

CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE - Playoff edition!

Here's the playoff grid for the CFL, having just played twenty-two weeks to eliminate three teams...

EASTERN division)   BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders Saturday. The odds favor Calgary by, and we like them by even more: a 7-11 team travels to a 14-4 defending champion? Take Calgary plus the points.

Next Saturday, the winner goes to Edmonton to play the division champion Eskimos.

WESTERN division)   Toronto Argonauts @ Hamilton TigerCats Saturday. Again, the home team is favored by, and even so we're going to take Hamilton plus the points. The TiCats were the best team in the league for most of the season, and really didn't fade as much as have quarterback injury issues, while Ottawa nipped them at the wire in that spectacular home-and-home series the last two weeks. The Argos get their starting QB back, but we like the experience of Hamilton.

Next Saturday, the winner of this game goes to Ottawa to play the second-year RedBlacks for the division title!

Then, on November 29th, the 103rd Grey Cup will match the division champions for the title!


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE - week ten

Here's our grid for the week - DEN+ means we like Denver to win by MORE than the point spread, and MIN- means that we like Minnesota to do better than losing by the point spread (either lose by less or win outright):

Week 10 (Nov 12-16)
Home   Away   Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Jets   Bills   NJ -3 E/D -1 BUF -
Ravens   Jaguars   B -5.5 E/G -7 BAL +
Packers   Lions   GB -11.5 B/H -15 GB +
Eagles   Dolphins   PH -6.5 D/F -7 PHI +
Steelers   Browns   PT -4.5 C/H -13 PIT +
Rams   Bears   SL -8.5 C/F -9 CHI -
Buccaneers Cowboys   TB -1.5 G/F -1 TB +
Titans   Panthers   CA -4.5 A/G -15 CAR +
Redskins Saints   NO -1.5 F/F +3 WAS -
Raiders   Vikings   OAK -3 D/C+ 0 MIN -
Broncos   Chiefs   DN -6.5 B/C- -6 DEN +
Giants   Patriots   NE -7 E-/A -6 NE +
Seahawks Cardinals   SE -3 B/B -3 no pick
Bengals   Texans   CN -10.5 A/G- -16 CIN +

And because we hadn't had a chance to publish them yet, here are the current tiers and rankings:

Tier A) 1. New England. 2. Cincinnati. 3. Carolina.
Tier B) 4. Denver. 5. Green Bay. 6. Arizona. 7. Seattle.
Tier C) 8. Minnesota. 9. St. Louis. 10. Pittsburgh. 11. Kansas City.
Tier D) 12. Atlanta. 13. Buffalo. 14. Philadelphia. 15. Oakland.
Tier E) 16. New York Jets. 17. Baltimore. 18. New York Giants.
Tier F) 19. New Orleans. 20. Washington. 21. Dallas. 22. Chicago. 23. San Diego. 24. Miami.
Tier G) 25. San Francisco. 26. Tampa Bay. 27. Indianapolis. 28. Tennessee. 29. Jacksonville. 30. Houston.
Tier H) 31. Cleveland. 32. Detroit. 

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, the first week of November!

As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...

WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...

WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.

WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.

WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.

WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!

WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.

WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!

WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.

WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)

WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.

WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.

WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.

But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.

South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.

WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!

Monday, November 2, 2015

Following up on prophecies from last week...

If we're to be legit about predicting games, we've got to follow up on our predictions each week, so you have some idea what return you're getting on your investment, right? So, here we go!

Rugby) Nailed it. New Zealand 34-17 over Australia.

NFL) An awkward weekend! Got four right (picking the Pats, Chiefs, Vikes, and Cards to win and cover); had one push (Ravens by three over SD) and three more where we picked the right winner but they barely missed the cover (Seattle by ONE, Houston by THREE instead of four, and Saints by THREE instead of 3 1/2! Aaagh!). Missed the winners entirely on victories by Tampa, the Raiders, Cincy and Denver (Manning be Manning again!); and missed that SF wouldn't cover against the Rams. So with the winners we went 9-4; ATS, though, we were 4-8-1, with one to go tonight. (Carolina covers seven against Indy.)

CFL) Two-and-two: we got the two dominant teams in the west, Calgary and Edmonton, winning their games handily. But we missed the other two - the BC Lions clinched a playoff spot by upsetting Toronto (guaranteeing them third place in the East), and sophomore franchise Ottawa moved within one step of a division title by beating Hamilton 12-6 in Hamilton! All they have to do now is play them again at home Saturday and either win or lose by fewer than six points. Good luck, RedBlacks!

NCAA) By sections...

BIG GAMES in the FBS - we went 4-1! Missed UNC beating Pitt 26-19, but nailed wins by Florida and LaTech, and knew Stanford and Notre Dame would win close battles with Wazzu and Temple, respectively.

BIG GAMES in the FCS - 3-3 here, but we're good with it. Our winners: Dayton 31-14 over Jacksonville; J-ville State routing Eastern Kentucky; and William & Mary over JMU. Our losers weren't embarrasing - Charleston Southern edged out Coastal Carolina, handing the defending conference champs their first loss; Fordham lost 31-29 to Colgate in an incredible game; and an even more amazing game saw Harvard beat Dartmouth as predicted, but only by one point (not 10+ as called). Big Green held the champs scoreless until six minutes to go in the game, stopping Harvard on interceptions, fumbles, and so forth every time they made it into hostile territory. But they scored a TD with six to go, failed on the next drive, and then went down and scored on fourth down to win the game 14-13. Great teams find ways to win.

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FBS - Four right, five wrong, one push, and one push-ish (Auburn lost by 8 on a seven point spread). Proud of the way Minnesota reacted Saturday night, and deserved to beat Michigan. Took three OTs for Oregon to prove our Sun Devil forecast wrong!

OTHER GAMES of interest in the FCS - Seven right, three winners but we missed the margin badly (Illinois St, Eastern Washington, and Marist weren't close to what we called), and five we had the wrong victors - congrats to Alabama A&M, Alcorn St, Penn, Furman, and first-year ballers Kennesaw St, who went to 6-2 with an upset of Monmouth Saturday! Are they actually a threat to Coastal and Charleston Southern? We'll find out soon enough!

All other games... - 14-8 in the FBS predictions against the spread; 32-7 picking winners in the FCS.

All in all, not bad...

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Prophecies, part one...

Just for convenience of publishing, here are the predictions for the professionals first...college football will come out later in the day:

Here are our predictions for All Hallow’s Eve weekend of football!

RUGBY) We think the New Zealand All-Blacks will continue their dominance and rout Australia by more than a try (five points). The finals are on NBC this Saturday – check your listings; we don’t remember what time. (And if you’ve never seen the Haka, tune in early just for that!)

NFL) For some reason, we think it’s a boring weekend in the National!....Football!...LEAGUE! Out of the fourteen games on the slate for week eight, we see twelve of them as the favorite beating the spread:

New England (-8) over the Jets; Kansas City (-4.5) over the Lions; Atlanta (-7.5) over Tampa; Baltimore (-3) over the Chargers; Minnesota (-1) over Da Bears; Arizona (-5) over the Browns; Houston (-4) over the Titans [this one makes us uncomfortable, though, because of both teams’ QB situations]; New Orleans (-3.5) over the Giants [this one also took a long time…]; the New York Jets (-2) over the Raiders; Seattle (-6) over the QB-less (and rudderless) Cowboys; Green Bay (-3) over Denver [wanted to take Denver, and all our metrics say to…but Aaron Rogers, man…]; and Carolina (-7) over the listing Colts.

The only two underdogs we’re going with this weekend are San Francisco (+8.5) against the Rams [it’s just too high a spread], and we like Pittsburgh (+1.5) to beat Cincinnati outright at home this weekend, as much as we like the Bengals. Call it the 6-0 jinx – we don’t see any of the others losing (except Denver or Green Bay to each other, which is required), and it’s hard to see four 7-0 teams moving forward. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones has a functional offense, and the Bengals have a down game coming…


CFL) Two weeks left! Playoff spots and positions are on the line! Here are the standings as we speak…
CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE 2015
Week 18
FF Elo-style
Western Team
W
L
PpG
PF
PA
Avg PF
Avg PA
P +/-
RATING
FF rank
Edmonton
13
4
1.53
426
319
25.1
18.8
107
36.4
2
Calgary
12
4
1.50
408
320
25.5
20.0
88
38.4
1 (-2)
BC Lions
6
10
0.75
403
433
25.2
27.1
-30
32.7
4 (-1)
Winnipeg
5
12
0.59
342
481
20.1
28.3
-139
23.6
8
Saskatchewan
2
14
0.25
381
497
23.8
31.1
-116
23.1
9


Eastern Team
W
L
PpG
PF
PA
APF
APA
P +/-
RATING
FF rank
Hamilton
10
6
1.25
496
335
31.0
20.9
161
35.0
3 (+2)
Ottawa
10
6
1.25
408
420
25.5
26.3
-12
27.4
6
Toronto
9
7
1.13
392
461
24.5
28.8
-69
24.3
7 (+3)
Montreal
6
10
0.75
342
332
21.4
20.8
10
29.9
5 (-2)


Hamilton and Ottawa happen to have their two remaining games with each other on back to back weeks, starting this Sunday in Hamilton and concluding in Ottawa on Saturday the 7th. Meanwhile, Toronto gets two home games to end the year, against BC this Friday and Winnipeg next Friday, but to place first they have to depend on Ottawa and Hamilton tying both of their games! (The CFL computers give them a one-in-ten-thousand chance. Not sure how they figure it.) For the Ti-Cats and RedBlacks, it comes down to the head-to-head; Hamilton owns the tie breaker in a three-way tie; if Toronto falls by the wayside, it becomes a soccer playoff scoring – point differential in two games.

Meanwhile, Edmonton plays its last game of the season on Sunday, and if they win against 6-10 Montreal, they clinch the division. If they lose, Calgary’s got to win both this Saturday at home against poor Saskatchewan, and next Saturday in Vancouver.

There are three playoff spots in each division – the first place gets a bye, which is all-important, and hosts the winner of the third-at-second place game the week before. So, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Toronto are in for the East, while in the West it’ll be Edmonton, Calgary, and either BC or Montreal, who would get in using what they call the “crossover” rule – if a fourth place team is better than the other third place team, they steal that playoff spot! MY FAVORITE PLAYOFF RULE! Last year, it worked the other way: BC stole a spot in the East. So why not root for Montreal to steal the West spot this time? Basically, though, BC owns the tiebreaker, so Montreal must win more of their two remaining games (@ Edmonton and home v Saskatchewan) than British Columbia does (@ Toronto and v Calgary). Very possible. It’s also conceivable that Winnipeg steals the spot, but they’d have to win at Toronto next Friday and have Montreal and BC lose both games. Good luck, Blue Bombers.

Our Picks This Week) Toronto over BC, 28-20…Calgary routs the RoughRiders, 41-19… Hamilton edges Ottawa at home, 33-27…Edmonton clinches by beating Montreal, 31-13.


Tuesday, August 11, 2015

UPS AND DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 2

Welcome to Following Football 2.0 - updated format, updated focus, better prepared to service you, the eclectic football fan! UP FIRST, most appropriately, our Tuesday column stretching across three countries and four versions of the sport... UPS AND DOWNS for the second week of August, 2015!

UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.

DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!

UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.

DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Here is the Canadian Football season in a nutshell so far:

Our selections in the AFL have been spot on all year; we've gotten 84 out of 116 correct this season, (75%) and sit in the top third of 1% in every grouping we're part of in the official AFL "tipping" contest (that's what they call predicting down under). So we know how to pick games. 

In the CFL, we're 3 out of 8 so far. (Which is better than the odds makers at BoDog, the official CFL gambling site, who have only gotten two games right so far.) Despite what actually passes as worse than "flip a coin" prognostication, we're in the top half of the pool already, and moving up. Go figure.

Last weekend, in Round 2, the Eastern Division somehow went 4-0 against the "vastly superior" West, with Hamilton annihilating 1-0 Winnipeg 52-26 - and that was the LEAST of the four results! - "quarterbackless Montreal crushing defending champion Calgary 29-11 behind first-time starter Raheem Cato (of Marshall U fame); Ottawa matched its 2014 win total sixteen games early by upending the British Columbia Lions 27-16; and in the game of the young season so far, two incredibly proficient teams went toe-to-toe, slugging it out as long as theoretically possible - more on that in a moment - before Toronto upset Saskatchewan in the Mosaic in Regina 42-40 in double overtime. Two great writers to follow on Canadian football are Don Landry and Pat Steinberg on cfl.ca; here are their wrap-ups.

Backup QB Trevor Harris drove the Argonauts down for the tying score late in the fourth, and the teams traded touchdowns (and missed mandatory 2-pt conversions) in the first overtime together. In the CFL, OTs are run in the same basic Kansas City format the NCAA uses, except each possession starts from the 35 (the extra ten yards account for the goal posts being ten yards closer, on the goal line itself). They only allow two overtimes at most in a regular season game, and 2-pt conversions are required on all TDs. The Roughriders made their second TD to come within two of Toronto in the second OT, and then on the by-definition last play of the game, the Argos stopped Saskatchewan from converting to win the game by two. 

So right now, Toronto and Ottawa are 2-0 in the East (Toronto has a 17 point higher rating at the moment), with Hamilton and Montreal a game back at 1-1. Calgary still leads the West, tied with Winnipeg at 1-1; BC and Edmonton each sit at 0-1, and the Roughriders have looked good two straight weeks and are 0-2 to show for it. 

Next week, we see these likelihoods:
Edmonton over Ottawa 19-13 at home...Winnipeg at home over Montreal 28-23...Saskatchewan over BC 30-24 in Vancouver...Calgary edging Toronto 24-23 at home. The Hamilton Ti-Cats have the week off.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Now THAT'S a novel way to solve a QB controversy!

In the christening game of the Canadian Football League season, Montreal hosted last year's expansion Ottawa REDBLACK club, the only team required to CAPITALIZE its name. They were the biggest favorite of the weekend, and rightly so, with Jonathon Crompton at QB and Central Michigan alum Dan LeFevour pushing him, throwing to a loaded receiving corps against a 2-16 team.

So, the Montreal solution? Get them BOTH injured, and be forced to throw in rookie Brandon Bridge, who threw a game-breaking interception as Ottawa leads the Eastern Division at 1-0, winning 20-16. To Ottawa's credit, pinned back with four minutes to go, ran the clock out against the Alouette defense to seal the win - and they can't blame their quarterback situation for that.

The Alouette play by play man closed his broadcast tonight by asking for tweets from any interested Montreal fans who want to try out for quarterback for next week....and I think he was serious...


Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Busy weekend outside the US - part one!

(And a belated Happy Father's Day to all my fellow dads out there! Remember: being a father means much more than genetics, much more than financial support. Be a dad, not just a father. Give your child - or children - someone they'll look up to for the rest of their lives: a role model to emulate. Never said it was easy - but it's necessary.)

The CFL is gearing up for Week One starting on Thursday night with Ottawa at Montreal - and ESPN has announced they'll be showing about twenty games this season on ESPN2! That will include the playoffs and the Grey Cup championship game! Here are our picks from Following Football ACNC for Week 1 - locate us in CFL Pick'Em and challenge our prognosticating prowess! (Probably won't be too difficult to beat us!)

Thursday: Montreal 33, Ottawa 7.
Friday: Calgary 34, Hamilton 21.
Saturday: Edmonton 31, Toronto 28.
Saturday: Saskatchewan 35, Winnipeg 17.

CFL.ca's Nissan Titan Power Rankings to start the season are pretty close to ours at Following Football... here are both for comparison:

1. Calgary (we have them 1st as well, rated at 48.9)
2. Hamilton (we've got them 5th, barely, 29.9, as the center teams are bunched.)
3. Edmonton (2nd on our list at 38.1; second best record in '14, two big wins preseason)
4. Saskatchewan (agree with 4th, at 30.0)
5. Montreal (7th on our list but we could see them rising)
6. Toronto (optimistic - we have them 6th for now but falling as the season progresses...)
7. BC Lions (they're more concerned with BC's injuries than we are - we have them 3rd!)
8. Winnipeg (agree - 20.6 rating, not a promising line on either side of the ball)
9. Ottawa (easiest pick of the bunch - last at 10.1)

So, the two big differences right now are their bullishness on Hamilton and ours on BC. We'll just see who's right over the next few weeks! Also, check out Pat Steinberg's weekly Monday Morning Quarterback column (Canadian style - not the Peter King version, although he's at least as brilliant a writer!).

Friday, June 19, 2015

As the pre-season ends up north...

...and the end of a few CFL careers come with the final cutdown tomorrow, we take a look at the final exhibition games and the starting Following Football ratings for the CFL:

- Troubled Toronto handles rival Montreal 30-10, to my surprise (the Argonauts don't play in their Rogers Centre home until August, including having to play a "home game" in Ft. McMurray next weekend. Their ownership is changing and the current owner's not likely to spend another dime on the Argos this year...)
-Hamilton over Winnipeg 26-15, posting a 2-0 preseason after two easy games against the two weakest teams after playing Grey Cup last November.
-Edmonton traveled to Vancouver and beat the BC Lions 18-13. They also went 2-0, but defeated two good teams in Saskatchewan and the Lions.
-Speaking of Saskatchewan, their broadcast went live on line tonight, so we watched them compete marvelously against the defenders from Calgary, who showed their class by coming back from being down all game to score the last two TDs and win 37-29.

Calgary certainly deserves the highest rating going into the 2015 season, which starts on Thursday night. Here's our picks for week one, with the FF Elo-style ratings in parentheses...

Thursday, Montreal (29.6) at Ottawa (10.1) - M should win 33-7.
Friday, Hamilton (29.9) at Calgary (48.9) - C should win, 34-21.
Saturday, Edmonton (38.1) "at" Toronto (29.9) - E in a close one, 31-28.
Saturday, Winnipeg (20.1) at Saskatchewan (30.0) - we see S big, 35-17.
(And in an odd-team league, it's the BC Lions (32.9) with the bye to start the season.)

If you're interested in joining me in the CFL Pick'em contest, go to cfl.ca and register before Thursday night! It's free, it's quick (only four games to pick each week), and it'll give you some insight into the Canadian game! Twelve men flying in all directions, three downs, big field - it's a blast!

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Canada starts its pre-season! And, about the NBA Finals...

With a pair of games Monday and Tuesday evenings, the CFL has started its pre-season in preparation for opening night on June 25th! The Hamilton Tiger-Cats defeated the second-year Ottawa Redblacks (I refuse to write REDBLACKS every time this year - I felt like I was yelling at my readers!) 37-10 on Monday, and last night the Winnipeg Blue Bombers upset the Toronto Argonauts by a touchdown, 34-27, on the strength of too many Argo turnovers. I've noticed that the CFL, having only two pre-season games, uses its starters more than its neighbors to the south - listening to the first half last night, there was a real sense of playing a real game of football, not a uniformed scrimmage, although LOTS of men got into the action. 

Of course, I only listened to the first half of the Canadian game because there was a MUCH more important event going on just south of Toronto a few hundred miles! I know the ball's the wrong shape (and the court's wooden and much more indoors), but you've GOT to admire the work of LeBron James and what's left of the Cleveland Cavaliers, already distant underdogs to the Golden State Warriors before superstar Kyrie Irving went down...remembering the loss of Kevin Love in the first round of the playoffs...and of Anderson Varejao in December for the season...and then to have Iman Shumpert re-injure his shoulder in the first quarter last night and have it mostly useless the rest of the night...and yet somehow, they're leading the 67-win Warriors two games to one after winning last night! Normally, I'd be a Warrior fan - I grew up in NorCal, and remember the last Warriors title, forty years ago; they play a beautiful brand of basketball, and I have as much admiration for them as any team I've watched play. But if the Cavaliers somehow won this series? No team with at least 65 wins has ever failed to win the Finals, let alone to a team fourteen games below them, let alone to a team missing its 2nd and 3rd best players, let alone to a team whose now-second best player is an undrafted Aussie from St. Mary's University who looks like an accountant and has to show his ID to get into the locker rooms!!

Essentially, LeBron James is willing a team of castoffs and second stringers to a title riding his coattails. On Jimmy Kimmel's show last night, he referred to the series as being "tied up 1-1 between Golden State and LeBron James", and he's not that far from the truth. Matthew Dellavadova has been literally unbelievable, JR Smith and James Jones have played over their heads, Timofey Mosgov and Tristan Thompson have had their coming-out parties in this playoff series...but it's all because of The Man. It's fascinating to hear the distinction the announcers give Curry and James: Curry is "the MVP", but LeBron is "the best player in the world".

Yep. That's about the size of it. And if he wins this series more or less by himself, to bring that mystical title to starving Cleveland? 

There would be no words for it. Unprecedented. And he's halfway there.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Along the lines of the FF rating system for the AFL...

...comes the Following Football CFL rating system! (Yeah...we're bored. What's your point?)

This was formulated using the numbers from the last three CFL seasons (except for Ottawa, who was an expansion franchise in 2014), with each season being worth half of the one that followed it. The ratings have been normalized with 30 as a median, so that the sum of all the ratings should always equal 30*9 teams=270:

Calgary Stampeders           48.5
Edmonton Eskimos            37.7
British Columbia Lions     32.5
Saskatchewan R.Riders    29.6
Hamilton Tiger-Cats          29.5
Toronto Argonauts             29.5
Montreal Alouettes             29.2
Winnipeg Blue Bombers   20.2
Ottawa REDBLACKS           13.3

A few interesting notes about this rating system as it's played out...
--- Calgary seems really high, but that's what you get when you're as dominant as they were last year, plus very solid seasons the two previous years. It remains to be seen if that rating accurately predicts scores, however - my guess is that it's too high for that purpose.
---Given an average score of 30, it's funny to see only three of nine teams above thirty. Of course, having four teams in the 29s makes up for it! That's about how close those teams have been the last couple of years!
---What will home field advantage be worth? Traditionally, three points, but whether that works with this rating system is still anyone's guess. 
---Like Calgary, Ottawa is so far off the norm that it's anyone's guess whether that number will be accurate or useful in predicting outcomes and scores for the REDBLACKS, the only fully-capitalized team in professional sports! The great thing about these rating systems, though, is that they self-normalize over time - if they're not accurate yet, they will be soon!

So, we'll have to wait and see how this plays out over the course of the 22-game CFL season. We'll track the games here, right alongside the AFL in the early season and the NFL in the fall and winter. As need be, we may adjust the numbers slightly in the pre-season as we "tweak" the set-up for its initial use.

Play ball!