Today, we want to jump all over the landscape and ask a ton of questions, point out a ton of interesting thoughts, and...well, if George Carlin were still around, he'd call these "Braindroppings"! So, here goes!
What makes a team a dynasty? Three titles in a row, like Hawthorn just achieved in the AFL? Does five in fifteen years count, like the NBA's San Antonio Spurs? What about the Patriots, who've won four and been to seven Super Bowls in the Belechick/Brady era (about fourteen years)? Certainly the 1950s-60s Boston Celtics count - they're the very definition of a dynasty! Eight in a row, eleven in thirteen years...but which of those is more important? Is winning over a long period of time, even if you missed a couple in between, "better" than the string over three or four years? What do you think?
Concussion protocols...without question, better than it's been in previous years, when you could convince your coach you were good to go play even when the other team seems to have twice as many players as they legally should have. But please, footy, football, every other kind of real contact sport - don't assume the problem's fixed! The iffy nature of concussions to begin with makes dealing with them nebulous in the best of times, and as we learn more and more about how much time it actually takes to recover from the hit, we have to change how we deal with it. Opinion?
Specials... which is what many coaches call "trick plays". Washington pulled a good one last night, a double pass which scored their first touchdown and led to an upset of USC in LA. SC State had a great one that I first saw the Rams pull on Seattle last year, where you have a punt returner fake like he's getting the punt, when in reality it's the guy on the opposite sideline who's catching the ball and (in last night's game) scoring a touchdown on the runback! (Bethune-Cookman won anyway, however, in a game which may have decided the MEAC.) So, the question that bugs some people is this - are "specials" basically cheating? If you can't win playing "correctly" (or "like men", if you want to really get machismo on this), you have to "resort to trick plays" to try to "cheat" your way to victory! My response - first of all, the plays are legal, so it's not cheating. Second of all, it's the brain versus brawn argument, and football has room for both. If you're okay with a team using the forward pass to win, which many in the early days of the AAFC and NFL weren't for the same reason (c'mon! Be a man and run at me!), you really can't complain about the double pass, or any other "trickeration", as our idol Chris Petersen would say. Petersen, of course, was the one who called the double pass that beat USC last night, and famously brought the house down in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a host of trick plays at the end of the game to pull out the Boise State victory over vaunted Oklahoma. What most people forget is that, until a great OU drive and a brainfade interception, Boise had OU soundly beaten (28-10, late in the third) with old-fashioned, hard-nosed, "my linemen are better than yours" football. You've gotta have the guys who can pull it off, too. Your thoughts?
Speaking of Boise v Oklahoma, the perpetual argument over whether a school from outside the Power Five conferences should ever play for a national championship rages, and will continue to until one gets in and then wins the tournament. The CFP folks threw the Group of Five conferences a nice bone by guaranteeing their best team a spot in the high-paying bowl games in the New Year's Six, which is more than they've had. But what if (to choose a team besides Boise, our personal favorite!) Temple or Toledo, both of whom look spectacular this year, goes undefeated in 2015, looks phenomenal in doing so, and two of the power conferences fail to produce any team the committee feels is worthy of a playoff bid? Who's to say that an undefeated Temple isn't a better choice than, say, a three-loss Florida State? What would be wrong with that? Think back to that 2007 Fiesta Bowl, which some say was the best game of all time (as much as I love Boise St, I'd go with USC/Texas in the BCS title game the year Vince Young won it for the Longhorns). Utah had been the first "mid-major" to qualify for a big bowl, but they played a five-loss Pitt team from a pathetic Big East, won, and proved nothing. Boise was the first mid-major to play in the spotlight against a top ten team - and not just any, but 7-time national champion Oklahoma, Big 12 champs, one loss, Adrian Peterson at RB. Somehow the screwed up rankings had BSU #7 and OU #9, but the Sooners were absurd betting favorites - David and Goliath was referenced multiple times in the intro. BSU dominated the game, and if it weren't for a Bronco punt coverage mistake late in the 3rd, Oklahoma was ready to give up. In fact, over the span of games that mid-major teams played in BCS bowl games, their record was 5-2. (And one of those losses was to another mid-major, when they pitted TCU and BSU against each other the year they both qualified. The other was Hawaii's debacle loss to Georgia, proving there's an exception to every rule.) Why can't a Boise St, a Houston, a Memphis, a Toledo, a Temple, a Navy, a Northern Illinois play for the title?
Bodybag games...New Mexico State is getting about a million dollars towards balancing its athletic budget ($4.4 M over, last year) to go to the University of Mississippi and be a forty-three point underdog to a top-notch SEC team. Basically, they're being paid to be the Washington Generals. Remember the Generals? The Globetrotters' perpetual opponents? Name anything about them besides that. Thought so... Ole Miss wants a week off from the gauntlet of the SEC, wants to fill their stadium, give their fans a "guaranteed win" (as LSU will tell you about Jacksonville St, "no such thing"!), and is giving about a one-seventh share of the profits to the opponent for the privilege of being beaten badly. Some teams are notorious for needing these games to stay afloat - Following Football's favorite team, the MEAC's punching bag Savannah State, played Oklahoma St and Florida St in consecutive weeks two years ago, lost the first one 88-0, and would've lost the second to the national champs by worse if they hadn't gone to a running clock in the second half to finish early and avoid a storm coming in. Up here in the Northwest, I always pity the Idaho Vandals, who moved to the big-time because Boise St did, but in little Moscow, Idaho, they don't have the fan base or the resources to afford the lifestyle of an FBS football program. So instead of being the top-notch FCS program they were for decades, rivals with the Montanas of the realm, they're stuck as a bottom-feeder in the lowly Sun Belt conference, taking two payday games a year (this year at USC and Auburn) to financially survive another one-win season. Where's the shame in moving to FCS before your entire program disbands (see UAB)? Why don't schools like NMSU, Idaho, and several others improve both their bottom line AND their competitive results and return to the FCS where their school setting suggests they should be anyway? Your thoughts?
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Thursday, October 8, 2015
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
UPS AND DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 2
Welcome to Following Football 2.0 - updated format, updated focus, better prepared to service you, the eclectic football fan! UP FIRST, most appropriately, our Tuesday column stretching across three countries and four versions of the sport... UPS AND DOWNS for the second week of August, 2015!
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
Friday, May 8, 2015
The DeflateGate report is out.
And it doesn't look good for Tom Brady.
The NFL's report, which took four months to complete, determined that three people in the New England Patriots organization "more probably than not" knew and/or took part in the efforts to lower the pressure in the Patriots' game footballs so as to make it more to the starting quarterback's liking: equipment assistant John Jastremski, locker room attendant Jim McNally, and quarterback Tom Brady himself.
Beyond the physical data verifying that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game were indeed significantly below the NFL-required pressure, it also provides enough circumstantial evidence that makes it "more likely than not" that it was not only a deliberate act on the part of Jastremski and McNally (and at the very least tacitly condoned by Brady; more likely suggested by Brady), but that it was a pattern of behavior stretching back well into the regular season, based on such things as text messages between the two employees that certainly appear to confirm that they did exactly that throughout the season, specifically for Brady, who provided them with game paraphernalia as thank you's for doing so.
To clarify, Brady went to great lengths in the week following the original expose' to explain that yes, he much preferred the balls to be inflated "to the lower end of the legal range" of 12.5 to 13.5 psi, because it gives him a better grip on the ball, a better feel for it in cold weather, and allows his receivers to catch the ball more easily. To top that off, it was Brady himself who led the campaign to change the NFL policy on this very subject in 2007, creating the bizarre rule that each team should be in charge of its own footballs that it uses on offense, rather than the conventional notion that the neutral NFL would have control over the equipment used in the game.
(By the way, if the NFL hasn't changed that policy by August's first pre-season game, they should shut the place down.)
So, yeah, Tom Brady LOVES his footballs to have pressure as low as he can get away with in the footballs he throws.
Is there ANY way that a rational human being can conceive of a situation where an assistant equipment man and a part-time locker room attendant would contrive to illegally lower the pressure in the game balls WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE OR APPROVAL OF THE MAN WHO HANDLES THEM FOR A LIVING?
Interestingly, the report exonerates head coach Bill Belechick and ALL other Patriots players, coaches, and employees. The culture under Belechick has notoriously been to stretch the rules to the point of complete malleability, and sometimes beyond it (see: "Spygate", "Snowplow on the Field") to win football games.
But this time, it isn't specifically Belechick who's at fault.
It's the win at all costs culture he created.
I understand that the commissioner has no credibility AT ALL on the subject of appropriate suspensions. (See: Rice, Ray, takes one and two.) And I understand that while this affects the validity of the very sport his job depends on, it should NOT demand a penalty as harsh as the one for the scandal in which players' very health and well-being were compromised by bonuses being given for injuring them (i.e., the New Orleans Saints' "Bountygate" scandal - do we HAVE to use the suffix -gate on EVERYTHING?).
But the penalty seems pretty clear to me, within a range:
- Fire the two employees immediately, with a show-cause for working in the NFL for the next five-ten years. They have no reason to still be attached to the NFL.
- Whatever the Spygate draft/money penalty was, assess something between that amount again to double that amount. This is worse, but of the same magnitude.
- Tom Brady needs a significant suspension. Four to eight games seems appropriate to me - less than the season long suspension Saints head coach Sean Payton suffered, but more than a slap on the wrist. Ben Roethlisberger served six for "circumstantial evidence"-proven crimes off the field; this was less damaging to individuals but more damaging to the sanctity of the fairness of the product the NFL produces. Six games seems appropriate.
- Does it change the outcome of Super Bowl 49? Logistically, I have to say no. But it sure puts an asterisk on it in the minds of a loooooooot of people, including me.
This damages Brady's entire reputation in a way that a steroid scandal does to other players. It puts an asterisk on the 2014 season and Brady's passing numbers for a minimum of last year. Does it keep him out of the Hall of Fame? Probably not, but it's worth asking the question. Brady's interviews following the exposition of the evidence after the Colts game have been proven to be what they felt like at the time - lies, fabricated hastily and imperfectly, surrounding enough of his honesty about why he would want deflated balls to explain his actions in the case. And in particular, for a player whose good looks and aw, shucks image was crafted on his appearance of being a down-home guy who was exactly what he appeared to be, this is a whole set of nails in the coffin of that image. We will never see Tommy in that light again.
Even Bill Belechick will take a small hit - oh, sure, he was acquitted. And he was never the good ol' boy that Brady was, anyway. But it's yet another strike on the culture he created at Foxboro, that win-at-all-cost mode of operation that made the Patriots the villains of the NFL. It's one thing to be the rebels, like the Oakland Raiders were (and still would be, except that they're an afterthought as a hollow (art) shell of a team). It's quite another to be the outlaw. Expect a LOT more scrutiny, New England. Walk far away from that line, because you're going to be judged more harshly than ANYONE else in 2015, whether fair or not.
And the saddest thing is this - like Alex Rodriguez, like Barry Bonds, like Lance Armstrong - the Patriots were going to be good without all of the cheating. But their insecurity forced them into playing beyond the rules, to playing with an ace up the sleeve, because the full house they already had might not be quite good enough.
And it cost them more than the pot. It cost them their reputations as men.
The NFL's report, which took four months to complete, determined that three people in the New England Patriots organization "more probably than not" knew and/or took part in the efforts to lower the pressure in the Patriots' game footballs so as to make it more to the starting quarterback's liking: equipment assistant John Jastremski, locker room attendant Jim McNally, and quarterback Tom Brady himself.
Beyond the physical data verifying that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game were indeed significantly below the NFL-required pressure, it also provides enough circumstantial evidence that makes it "more likely than not" that it was not only a deliberate act on the part of Jastremski and McNally (and at the very least tacitly condoned by Brady; more likely suggested by Brady), but that it was a pattern of behavior stretching back well into the regular season, based on such things as text messages between the two employees that certainly appear to confirm that they did exactly that throughout the season, specifically for Brady, who provided them with game paraphernalia as thank you's for doing so.
To clarify, Brady went to great lengths in the week following the original expose' to explain that yes, he much preferred the balls to be inflated "to the lower end of the legal range" of 12.5 to 13.5 psi, because it gives him a better grip on the ball, a better feel for it in cold weather, and allows his receivers to catch the ball more easily. To top that off, it was Brady himself who led the campaign to change the NFL policy on this very subject in 2007, creating the bizarre rule that each team should be in charge of its own footballs that it uses on offense, rather than the conventional notion that the neutral NFL would have control over the equipment used in the game.
(By the way, if the NFL hasn't changed that policy by August's first pre-season game, they should shut the place down.)
So, yeah, Tom Brady LOVES his footballs to have pressure as low as he can get away with in the footballs he throws.
Is there ANY way that a rational human being can conceive of a situation where an assistant equipment man and a part-time locker room attendant would contrive to illegally lower the pressure in the game balls WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE OR APPROVAL OF THE MAN WHO HANDLES THEM FOR A LIVING?
Interestingly, the report exonerates head coach Bill Belechick and ALL other Patriots players, coaches, and employees. The culture under Belechick has notoriously been to stretch the rules to the point of complete malleability, and sometimes beyond it (see: "Spygate", "Snowplow on the Field") to win football games.
But this time, it isn't specifically Belechick who's at fault.
It's the win at all costs culture he created.
I understand that the commissioner has no credibility AT ALL on the subject of appropriate suspensions. (See: Rice, Ray, takes one and two.) And I understand that while this affects the validity of the very sport his job depends on, it should NOT demand a penalty as harsh as the one for the scandal in which players' very health and well-being were compromised by bonuses being given for injuring them (i.e., the New Orleans Saints' "Bountygate" scandal - do we HAVE to use the suffix -gate on EVERYTHING?).
But the penalty seems pretty clear to me, within a range:
- Fire the two employees immediately, with a show-cause for working in the NFL for the next five-ten years. They have no reason to still be attached to the NFL.
- Whatever the Spygate draft/money penalty was, assess something between that amount again to double that amount. This is worse, but of the same magnitude.
- Tom Brady needs a significant suspension. Four to eight games seems appropriate to me - less than the season long suspension Saints head coach Sean Payton suffered, but more than a slap on the wrist. Ben Roethlisberger served six for "circumstantial evidence"-proven crimes off the field; this was less damaging to individuals but more damaging to the sanctity of the fairness of the product the NFL produces. Six games seems appropriate.
- Does it change the outcome of Super Bowl 49? Logistically, I have to say no. But it sure puts an asterisk on it in the minds of a loooooooot of people, including me.
This damages Brady's entire reputation in a way that a steroid scandal does to other players. It puts an asterisk on the 2014 season and Brady's passing numbers for a minimum of last year. Does it keep him out of the Hall of Fame? Probably not, but it's worth asking the question. Brady's interviews following the exposition of the evidence after the Colts game have been proven to be what they felt like at the time - lies, fabricated hastily and imperfectly, surrounding enough of his honesty about why he would want deflated balls to explain his actions in the case. And in particular, for a player whose good looks and aw, shucks image was crafted on his appearance of being a down-home guy who was exactly what he appeared to be, this is a whole set of nails in the coffin of that image. We will never see Tommy in that light again.
Even Bill Belechick will take a small hit - oh, sure, he was acquitted. And he was never the good ol' boy that Brady was, anyway. But it's yet another strike on the culture he created at Foxboro, that win-at-all-cost mode of operation that made the Patriots the villains of the NFL. It's one thing to be the rebels, like the Oakland Raiders were (and still would be, except that they're an afterthought as a hollow (art) shell of a team). It's quite another to be the outlaw. Expect a LOT more scrutiny, New England. Walk far away from that line, because you're going to be judged more harshly than ANYONE else in 2015, whether fair or not.
And the saddest thing is this - like Alex Rodriguez, like Barry Bonds, like Lance Armstrong - the Patriots were going to be good without all of the cheating. But their insecurity forced them into playing beyond the rules, to playing with an ace up the sleeve, because the full house they already had might not be quite good enough.
And it cost them more than the pot. It cost them their reputations as men.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
SUPER BOWL XLIX LIVE BLOG!
9:10 pm: THANKS FOR PLAYING ALONG, BOYS AND GIRLS! And remember, there's only four weeks to go until pre-season Australian Football begins! G'night!
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...
7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
Marshawn Lynch asked if he's surprised he didn't get the football. Says "No." I ask him, Why not? Says, "Because football is a team sport."
-
This season, the Seahawks had the most rushing yards by an NFL team since 2006, and they threw a pass needing a yard for the Super Bowl.
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
Super Bowl XLIX Photoblog: Halftime highlights
ESPN.comHere are some highlights from the Super Bowl XLIX halftime show featuring Katy Perry, Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliott.7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
- NE defenders may be thinking there's 32 more minutes of Marshawn Lynch coming at them.
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
- Paul McCartney in crowd. Probably thinks the Seahawks need to play betta betta betta
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Favorite5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
(No, this isn't ours... we're going with chili and chips, and some taquitos later...)
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
This is an incredibly damning article against the Patriots' flat footballs.
Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics has a study of the fumble rates of the New England Patriots that is all but a smoking gun as regards to the history of low pressure footballs since the Brady/Manning rule went into effect in 2007.
Let me quote some of the most relevant passages, but you definitely need to go to the article itself to study the data - it's alarming:
For whatever reason, the Patriots do have exceptional ball security, especially for an outdoors team. And I mean exceptional.
I was intrigued by a link sent to me via Twitter at Sharp Football Analysis, a handicapping site. The article demonstrated that NE's ball security was an outlier to the tune of several standard deviations. The charts are convincing, and the implication is that NE benefitted from under-inflated balls is unmistakable.
NE ranks third over that period. Very good, but nothing out of the ordinary. You'd expect teams with good QBs and good offenses to have fewer strip-sacks. But the article linked above makes a good point: Many teams that play indoors are concentrated at the top of the list. Let's see how the table looks if we exclude dome teams.
Whoa. In this case NE is at the top of the list, and the next best team is a distant second. Notice how the second team (BLT) through the second to last team (PHI) have rates that are within 1 or 2 plays of each other. NE, however, is better than the next best team by 20 plays per fumble.
I'm not sticking my neck out here and saying this is evidence of anything. It's fair to say that Belichick emphasizes ball security emphatically, and is quick to bench players who drop the ball. Everyone will have their own opinion anyway. I'll just say, either way, it's worth looking at. If it's a result of an unfair advantage, that's interesting. If it's the result of good coaching, that's just as interesting.
Addendum: @brian30tw pointed out that NE's big improvement in fumble rate occurred in '07, precisely when the NFL's rule allowing visiting teams to bring their own balls went into effect. Other teams didn't have such good fortune.
To summarize: Before the rule change (championed by Tom Brady) that allowed each team (read: quarterback) to adjust the inflation of the football to their whim in 2007, the Patriots' fumble numbers were very similar to everyone else's. After the rule change, their fumble rate dropped precipitously, to the point where they are so far away from the statistical likelihood of doing so under the same conditions as the other outdoor teams that they can no longer be considered feasible.
SO, I'll go out on the limb and say it: The evidence suggests that this is a pattern of behavior that has very possibly occurred since the implementation of the Brady rule in 2007. More than an isolated cheating incident in a single playoff game, the low inflation of New England's footballs has been going on for YEARS. Their offense has not been playing with the same equipment standard as the rest of the league, the very essence of cheating.
And what's worse? They won three Super Bowls BEFORE all of this started. They were ALREADY GREAT. But remember that Spygate ALSO hit the scandal sheets in 2007... Maybe the New York Giants really are the karma police...
Go, Seattle.
Let me quote some of the most relevant passages, but you definitely need to go to the article itself to study the data - it's alarming:
For whatever reason, the Patriots do have exceptional ball security, especially for an outdoors team. And I mean exceptional.
I was intrigued by a link sent to me via Twitter at Sharp Football Analysis, a handicapping site. The article demonstrated that NE's ball security was an outlier to the tune of several standard deviations. The charts are convincing, and the implication is that NE benefitted from under-inflated balls is unmistakable.
NE ranks third over that period. Very good, but nothing out of the ordinary. You'd expect teams with good QBs and good offenses to have fewer strip-sacks. But the article linked above makes a good point: Many teams that play indoors are concentrated at the top of the list. Let's see how the table looks if we exclude dome teams.
Whoa. In this case NE is at the top of the list, and the next best team is a distant second. Notice how the second team (BLT) through the second to last team (PHI) have rates that are within 1 or 2 plays of each other. NE, however, is better than the next best team by 20 plays per fumble.
I'm not sticking my neck out here and saying this is evidence of anything. It's fair to say that Belichick emphasizes ball security emphatically, and is quick to bench players who drop the ball. Everyone will have their own opinion anyway. I'll just say, either way, it's worth looking at. If it's a result of an unfair advantage, that's interesting. If it's the result of good coaching, that's just as interesting.
Addendum: @brian30tw pointed out that NE's big improvement in fumble rate occurred in '07, precisely when the NFL's rule allowing visiting teams to bring their own balls went into effect. Other teams didn't have such good fortune.
To summarize: Before the rule change (championed by Tom Brady) that allowed each team (read: quarterback) to adjust the inflation of the football to their whim in 2007, the Patriots' fumble numbers were very similar to everyone else's. After the rule change, their fumble rate dropped precipitously, to the point where they are so far away from the statistical likelihood of doing so under the same conditions as the other outdoor teams that they can no longer be considered feasible.
SO, I'll go out on the limb and say it: The evidence suggests that this is a pattern of behavior that has very possibly occurred since the implementation of the Brady rule in 2007. More than an isolated cheating incident in a single playoff game, the low inflation of New England's footballs has been going on for YEARS. Their offense has not been playing with the same equipment standard as the rest of the league, the very essence of cheating.
And what's worse? They won three Super Bowls BEFORE all of this started. They were ALREADY GREAT. But remember that Spygate ALSO hit the scandal sheets in 2007... Maybe the New York Giants really are the karma police...
Go, Seattle.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Charles P. Pierce of Grantland.com makes some fun points about the jocularity that he sees as DeFlateGate...
Because we are a nation of infantilized yahoos, I am able to present to you, verbatim, the second question posed to Tom Brady on Thursday, as he stood behind a lectern to discuss the tempest in a protective cup known as Ballghazi. I am not making any of this up, either.
“Tom,” he was asked. “This has raised a lot of uncomfortable conversations with people around the country who view you, a three-time Super Bowl champion, and a two-time MVP, as their idol. The question they’re asking themselves is, ‘What’s up with our hero?’ So can you answer right now, Is Tom Brady a cheater?”
This is a very big country. So, I would imagine, there are any number of uncomfortable conversations about a number of subjects going on at any one time. This is only one of them, and it is very minor — but, because we are a nation of infantilized yahoos, this is where we are. Watching the Great Media Hippo doing a moral ballet. To chronicle their heroes, the ancient Greeks had Homer. We have sports talk radio. This says nothing good about Western civilization.
Aside from his larger point, loosely translated as WTF?, the fact that this was the second question of the entire press conference startles me. Why not ask for FACTS first? It also makes me wonder more why Brady's answer was "I don't believe so", rather than something like, "HELL, NO!!!" Maybe it's because just the day before, his mentor and coach did this to him...
But part of Brady’s softened, perplexed demeanor had to be attributed to the fact that, earlier on Thursday, his head coach had tied him to the cowcatcher of a runaway train. “I think we all know that quarterbacks, kickers, specialists have certain preferences on footballs,” Belichick had said. “They know a lot more about it than I do. They’re a lot more sensitive to it than I am. I hear them comment on it from time to time, but I can tell you and they will tell you that there is never any sympathy whatsoever from me on that subject. Zero. Tom’s personal preferences on his footballs is something he can talk about in much better detail and information than I can possibly provide. I can tell you that in my entire coaching career, I have never talked to any player, staff member about football air pressure. That is not a subject that I have ever brought up. To me, the footballs are approved by the league and officials pregame, and we play with what’s out there. That’s the only way that I have ever thought about that.” Over the side, Tom. Watch that first step.
This was the point I made yesterday: when push comes to shove, nobody is sacred in Bill Belechick's mind. Pierce emphasizes something that needs to be said here, however unfair it seems...
Because of New England’s history, especially the whole Spygate business that hangs around the franchise’s neck like a dead raccoon, anything is assumed to be possible. But disqualify the Patriots from the Super Bowl? Blow up a game between the two best teams in the league for the purpose of having Kam Chancellor devour Andrew Luck on national TV? Bill Belichick is unlikely to be fired. Tom Brady is unlikely to be suspended, at least not until next year. Anyone telling you that any of these things is likely, quite frankly, are either trolling, or they are insane. There is no third alternative.
Or uninformed or unrealistic about the importance of money to the NFL, but that would be too easy to admit...
The whole thing is flatly hilarious. The way you can be sure of this is that the ladies of The View pronounced themselves outraged by the perfidious Patriots on Thursday morning. Rosie O’Donnell wanted them booted from the Super Bowl. (Trolling or insane? Our lines are open.) Moreover, because of the miracle of Twitter, and the fact that we are a nation of infantilized yahoos, everybody in the bunker at Gillette Stadium became aware of what the ladies of The View felt, and many of the assembled press felt compelled to get various New England players’ reactions to Rosie O’Donnell’s commentary. Me? This is what I think: Once a scandal starts being discussed on The View, it stops being a scandal and becomes a sitcom. I think this should be a rule.
Pierce does add some salience to the conversation regarding coach Belchick, whom he regards as,... Well, let's just say he doesn't think the coach was completely believable, either. Here's his take on Belechick not knowing the procedures for game-day footballs but still using the roughed up footballs in practice to "prepare for anything":
If you are not reading this on the back of your turnip truck, you undoubtedly have said to yourself at this point, “Bill, pal o’mine. You didn’t know the game-day protocols for the footballs, but you know enough about them to muck them up for practice?” That dog sits on the porch, licks its balls, and doesn’t even try to hunt.
Friday, January 23, 2015
A moment of rebuttal for a well-presented view on DeFlateGate
Here's a view that I had considered at first - I'm aware of the laws of gas pressure, and that volume OR pressure decrease with temperature (or a combination of the two), and that probably does happen to some extent in all cold-weather games.
Here's the rebuttal:
Why were the twelve balls for the Colts ALL perfect if they had the same circumstances as the twelve deflated Patriots balls?
Why has this NEVER come up in any of the previous cold weather games, including the ones during this very playoff season in Green Bay, for example, or any of the miserable ones in December?
Why is the other circumstantial evidence so compelling?
(And here's the question I really want answered someday, if indeed it is Tom Brady behind this, as I'm about 2/3 sure of at this point...WHY? You won this game 45-7, and you actually beat them WORSE when you had the regular balls in the second half. Besides, the plan was ALWAYS going to be run it down the Colts' throats because your line is tougher than theirs anyway - your passing wasn't going to be the difference in the game. Why would a GREAT quarterback like you DO this? I've never understood why Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, two certain Hall of Famers WITHOUT steroids and HGH, went to the cheating route when they were so good without cheating. Insecurity is always the answer I hear, and I have to believe it. I'm an extremely insecure person, and yet I've never done anything like that, and neither has 99% of folks, I think. [Maybe that's high.] I pray we're wrong about this. I fear we're not.)
Here's Peter King in today's MMQB, finishing the argument for me...
This is significant, because it takes weather-as-a-factor out of the possible reasons why New England’s footballs could have lost air while the balls on Indianapolis’ sidelines would have stayed fully inflated. I am told reliably that:
Here's the rebuttal:
Why were the twelve balls for the Colts ALL perfect if they had the same circumstances as the twelve deflated Patriots balls?
Why has this NEVER come up in any of the previous cold weather games, including the ones during this very playoff season in Green Bay, for example, or any of the miserable ones in December?
Why is the other circumstantial evidence so compelling?
(And here's the question I really want answered someday, if indeed it is Tom Brady behind this, as I'm about 2/3 sure of at this point...WHY? You won this game 45-7, and you actually beat them WORSE when you had the regular balls in the second half. Besides, the plan was ALWAYS going to be run it down the Colts' throats because your line is tougher than theirs anyway - your passing wasn't going to be the difference in the game. Why would a GREAT quarterback like you DO this? I've never understood why Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, two certain Hall of Famers WITHOUT steroids and HGH, went to the cheating route when they were so good without cheating. Insecurity is always the answer I hear, and I have to believe it. I'm an extremely insecure person, and yet I've never done anything like that, and neither has 99% of folks, I think. [Maybe that's high.] I pray we're wrong about this. I fear we're not.)
Here's Peter King in today's MMQB, finishing the argument for me...
The condition of the footballs on Sunday is coming into clarity.
This is significant, because it takes weather-as-a-factor out of the possible reasons why New England’s footballs could have lost air while the balls on Indianapolis’ sidelines would have stayed fully inflated. I am told reliably that:
- The 12 footballs used in the first half for New England, and the 12 footballs used by the Colts, all left the officials’ locker room before the game at the prescribed pressure level of between 12.5 pounds per square inch and 13.5 psi.
- All 24 footballs were checked by pressure gauge at halftime. I am told either 11 or 12 of New England’s footballs (ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported it was 11, and I hear it could have been all 12) had at least two pounds less pressure in them. All 12 Indianapolis footballs were at the prescribed level.
- All 24 footballs were checked by pressure gauge after the game. All 24 checked at the correct pressure—which is one of the last pieces of the puzzle the league needed to determine with certainty that something fishy happened with the Patriots footballs, because the Colts’ balls stayed correctly inflated for the nearly four hours. There had been reports quoting atmospheric experts that cold weather could deflate footballs. But if the Patriots’ balls were all low, and the Colts’ balls all legit, that quashes that theory.
The conclusion: There is little doubt the New England footballs were tampered with by a human.
OK, here's my DeFlateGateTake, and it's hard on Tom Brady...
The NFL has conducted more than forty interviews on this matter... yet of all people not to interview, apparently they've yet to talk to suspect number one, the quarterback of the team involved, Tom Brady...who came off sounding like an idiot yesterday, in particular for a combination of two quotes:
He said he prefers the football to be inflated at 12.5 pounds per square inch, which is the lowest end of the league requirement. "To me, that's a perfect grip for the football," he said. "When I pick those footballs out, at that point, to me, they're perfect," he said. "I don't want anyone touching the balls after that. I don't want anyone rubbing them, putting any air in them, taking any air out. To me, those balls are perfect, and that's what I expect when I show up on the field."That implies very strongly that he can tell the difference between 12.5 and 13.5 psi, which is the maximum legal range for an NFL game football.
(Remember, this man has been an NFL starting quarterback for fourteen years.)
Now, consider this quote: Brady said he didn't notice a difference between the footballs from the first half to the second half on Sunday. "I'm not squeezing them, that's not part of my process," Brady said. "I grab it. I feel the lace, the leather. I feel the tack on the ball. That's really what you go for."
Now, the league has said that all twelve New England footballs were under-pressurized, and at least eleven of the twelve were at least two psi under the legal pressure.
TWO psi. When Brady has a strong preference within a single psi range.
On Colin Cowherd's show this morning, Sal Paolintonio (who's covered the Pats for years and years, certainly all of Brady's tenure there) pointed out two things he's known for a long time: Brady very much prefers softer footballs, and has said so in multiple interviews over the years, not just this week. But he prefers them so much that he was the driving force behind a rule instituted a few years ago that the VISITING team should get to choose THEIR footballs, and not just have the home team handle all 24.
This is a subject that MATTERS to Tom Brady.
One more point, and you've heard it everywhere if you've listened to any talking heads this week... Mark Brunell, a former starting QB in the league said it best: "I did not believe what Tom had to say. Those balls were deflated. Somebody had to do it. I don't believe there's an equipment manager in the NFL that would, on his own initiative, deflate a ball without the starting QB's approval ... That football is our livelihood. If you don't feel good about throwing that ball? Your success on the football field can suffer from that."
Did I believe Bill Belechick? I hate to say it, but yes, to a point. He went out on a limb at his press conference in a couple of ways: he didn't need to hold the conference at ALL, nor did he need to say more than he ever says, which loosely translates to "On to Arizona. Next question." He was eloquent, elaborated on a great deal of the behind the scenes stuff that he really didn't need to say (he scuffs up practice balls to give the team trouble in practice to deal with? Wow.) - AND he took a relationship with the quarterback that made him the "genius" that he is today, and essentially threw it and him under the bus. To me, that sounds completely like something Belechick would do. He's cut every player who can no longer do his team good - and if that's what this scandal has come to, then Brady's next. No one realistically thought that when Brady hit the aging back-up stage, Belechick would keep him on the roster for "old-times' sake", did they? He doesn't do that for his own grandmother, and he's proven that time and time again. He does whatever it takes to win: legal (roster cuts, clever formations and plays), shady (remember the snow shoveler who found the lines and cleared the turf for the game winning kick years ago?), and outright illegal (Spygate, may it rest in peace).
Check the motivations. Bill Belechick did exactly what he does. I believe every word...EXCEPT that he doesn't know what's going on with the balls before a game. Bull. He knows where every media member is in his stadium at all times, and he doesn't know the procedures for the most important piece of equipment they use? I don't doubt he has "plausible deniability", but don't tell me you didn't know what the process was, Billy boy. But I don't think he's the primary offender here. He probably gave Brady carte blanche to do whatever he thought he needed to do, and Brady went too far.
And if I'm wrong, I'll never be able to prove it, because Mr. Runway Model slit his own throat in his own press conference the next morning.
SO, what's the appropriate punishment? I don't know. It's not like the commissioner has given us any reasonable set of precedents to gauge our choices by. But the court of public opinion will decide the only important punishment for these two men - the same way they have for Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGuire, Barry Bonds, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Roger Clemens, Lance Armstrong, and any other athlete they determine is a serious and unrepentant offender. If they're convinced, this blows over after the game. If they're not, and this is the last straw for Patriot haters...
He said he prefers the football to be inflated at 12.5 pounds per square inch, which is the lowest end of the league requirement. "To me, that's a perfect grip for the football," he said. "When I pick those footballs out, at that point, to me, they're perfect," he said. "I don't want anyone touching the balls after that. I don't want anyone rubbing them, putting any air in them, taking any air out. To me, those balls are perfect, and that's what I expect when I show up on the field."That implies very strongly that he can tell the difference between 12.5 and 13.5 psi, which is the maximum legal range for an NFL game football.
(Remember, this man has been an NFL starting quarterback for fourteen years.)
Now, consider this quote: Brady said he didn't notice a difference between the footballs from the first half to the second half on Sunday. "I'm not squeezing them, that's not part of my process," Brady said. "I grab it. I feel the lace, the leather. I feel the tack on the ball. That's really what you go for."
Now, the league has said that all twelve New England footballs were under-pressurized, and at least eleven of the twelve were at least two psi under the legal pressure.
TWO psi. When Brady has a strong preference within a single psi range.
On Colin Cowherd's show this morning, Sal Paolintonio (who's covered the Pats for years and years, certainly all of Brady's tenure there) pointed out two things he's known for a long time: Brady very much prefers softer footballs, and has said so in multiple interviews over the years, not just this week. But he prefers them so much that he was the driving force behind a rule instituted a few years ago that the VISITING team should get to choose THEIR footballs, and not just have the home team handle all 24.
This is a subject that MATTERS to Tom Brady.
One more point, and you've heard it everywhere if you've listened to any talking heads this week... Mark Brunell, a former starting QB in the league said it best: "I did not believe what Tom had to say. Those balls were deflated. Somebody had to do it. I don't believe there's an equipment manager in the NFL that would, on his own initiative, deflate a ball without the starting QB's approval ... That football is our livelihood. If you don't feel good about throwing that ball? Your success on the football field can suffer from that."
Did I believe Bill Belechick? I hate to say it, but yes, to a point. He went out on a limb at his press conference in a couple of ways: he didn't need to hold the conference at ALL, nor did he need to say more than he ever says, which loosely translates to "On to Arizona. Next question." He was eloquent, elaborated on a great deal of the behind the scenes stuff that he really didn't need to say (he scuffs up practice balls to give the team trouble in practice to deal with? Wow.) - AND he took a relationship with the quarterback that made him the "genius" that he is today, and essentially threw it and him under the bus. To me, that sounds completely like something Belechick would do. He's cut every player who can no longer do his team good - and if that's what this scandal has come to, then Brady's next. No one realistically thought that when Brady hit the aging back-up stage, Belechick would keep him on the roster for "old-times' sake", did they? He doesn't do that for his own grandmother, and he's proven that time and time again. He does whatever it takes to win: legal (roster cuts, clever formations and plays), shady (remember the snow shoveler who found the lines and cleared the turf for the game winning kick years ago?), and outright illegal (Spygate, may it rest in peace).
Check the motivations. Bill Belechick did exactly what he does. I believe every word...EXCEPT that he doesn't know what's going on with the balls before a game. Bull. He knows where every media member is in his stadium at all times, and he doesn't know the procedures for the most important piece of equipment they use? I don't doubt he has "plausible deniability", but don't tell me you didn't know what the process was, Billy boy. But I don't think he's the primary offender here. He probably gave Brady carte blanche to do whatever he thought he needed to do, and Brady went too far.
And if I'm wrong, I'll never be able to prove it, because Mr. Runway Model slit his own throat in his own press conference the next morning.
SO, what's the appropriate punishment? I don't know. It's not like the commissioner has given us any reasonable set of precedents to gauge our choices by. But the court of public opinion will decide the only important punishment for these two men - the same way they have for Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGuire, Barry Bonds, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Roger Clemens, Lance Armstrong, and any other athlete they determine is a serious and unrepentant offender. If they're convinced, this blows over after the game. If they're not, and this is the last straw for Patriot haters...
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