"Big 12 expansion is not just a possibility..."

Not that it's going to happen just yet, but here's an article from a visit with OU president David Boren, laying out the timetable (in the next ten years) for the expansion of the Big 12 back to (at least) 12 - expansion which "is not just a possibility, but an inevitability" for the long-term survival of the league.

It's college bowl season!

Sorry for the delay in this post: real life intervened. But, here are the 38 scheduled bowl games and their predicted outcomes, not just from Following Football but from Sagarin, ESPN, and Vegas:

Dec 20:                                          ESPN             SAGARIN           VEGAS           Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette:              Nev by 4        Nev by 1.4           Nev by 1.          ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP:                            USU by 13  USU by 8.8.    USU by 10.     USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St:                      CSU by 3.      Utah by 5.6     Utah by 3       CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force:             WM by 7.      WM by 0.5.        AF by 1.5.       AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama:     BG by 1         SA by 2.4.           SA by 3.            SA by 1/2 

Dec 22
BYU v Memphis:                            Mem by 7.  Mem by 2.0    Mem by 1.5.    Mem by 3

Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois:                    Mrsh by 7.  Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10   Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St:                    SDSU by 1.    SDSU by 3.1.       SDSU by 3.     Navy by 1

Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky:          WK by 13.     WK by 5.0.     WK by 4.      WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice:                            Rice by 8.     Rice by 2.6.    Rice by 2.5   Rice by 1/2

Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech:            LT by 11.       LT by 9.1.       LT by 6.          LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina:          NC by 3.          NC by 2.7.         NC by 3.            Rut by 1/2. 
N Carolina St v UCF:                    NCS by 1.      UCF by 3.3.      UCF by 2.         UCF by 2 1/2

...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils! 

All 38 bowl games in one place!

(Sorta...)

Here's Graham Watson's obligatory piece rating the lo-oo-ong list of bowls from most to least interesting to watch. (This one's from Dr. Saturday on Yahoo...I'm sure ESPN and SI.com will have theirs up any moment now.) 

On our list, we particularly like the Arkansas/Texas matchup of the old SouthWest Conference rivals in the "Texas Bowl", as well as the Utah/Colorado St matchup in Vegas. Both games have teams right next to each other in our rankings, and are regional rivalries with a great deal of interest. West Virginia/Texas A&M in Memphis' "Liberty Bowl" should be a blast as well. Finally, as a Group of Five proponent, we are partial to the meeting of the C-USA and MAC champions, Marshall/Northern Illinois, in Boca Raton, Florida - two very good teams, no matter what level they're on. (We'll have much more on the bowl games down the road, including our projections for all of them.)

Apparently NOBODY wants to go!

Coming towards the regular season's end, three teams matched up for the Group of Five's auto-bid into the big bowl games (what used to be called the BCS Buster): Marshall, Colorado St, and Boise St. We had the three teams in that order here at Following Football (Marshall #23, Colorado St #24, Boise St #29), although the CFP Committee actually has Boise at 23, Marshall at 24, and Colorado St just off the radar.

However, the Thundering Herd fell for the first time today (as reported here), 67-66 in overtime to Western Kentucky, and just now, the Air Force Academy kicked a last play field goal to beat the Rams, 27-24! Is this a good sign or a BAD one for the Broncos tomorrow? Their home game tomorrow against Utah St now becomes not only the de facto Mountain division title but possibly the Fiesta Bowl bid redux on the line! Technically, they still have a title game (at home) against Nevada or maybe Fresno next week, but given that the Mountain West looks like the SEC (all the talent in one division - Air Force is the fourth best team in the division AND the league), that may just be a formality...

We reveal our tiers and rankings after Week 12's games...

TIER A: 1. Alabama (10-1). 2. Mississippi St (10-1). 3. Florida St (11-0). 4. Oregon (10-1). 5. Baylor (9-1). 6. TCU (9-1). Same as last week. And yes, FSU is undefeated, but if they were playing 'Bama or MSU on a neutral field, who would be the favorite? That's our standard.

TIER B: 7. Ohio St (10-1). 8. Georgia (9-2). 9. UCLA (9-2), moving up after a strong win against a good team. 10. Michigan St (9-2). 11. Kansas St (8-2). 12. Auburn (8-3). We don't think the two-loss teams have a realistic shot at the playoff at this late point; if anyone, MAYBE the Dogs or Bruins, but that's it.

TIER C: 13. Oklahoma (8-3). 14. Missouri (9-2).  15. Ole Miss (8-3). 16. Wisconsin (9-2). 17. Arizona St (9-2). 18. Arizona (9-2). 19. Georgia Tech (9-2). 20. LSU (7-4). Firstly, yes, there are eight teams, but we feel these eight are very similarly leveled. Second, they're more erratic than A and B, so on any given day, any of these teams could beat the others. And third, can't wait for the Territorial Cup game between Arizona and Arizona St!

TIER D: 21. Minnesota (8-3), with a bullet. 22. Nebraska (8-3), and could've won that game easily. 23. Marshall (11-0). 24. Colorado St (10-1), and we're not at all sure they (or Boise) aren't better than the Herd for that big bowl spot! 25. Clemson (8-3). 26. Texas A&M (7-4).

TIER E: 27. Louisville (8-3), after that great win at Notre Dame. 28. Arkansas (6-5), and you wouldn't want to face them in a bowl game right now! 29. Boise St (9-2), and improving weekly. 30. USC (8-4). 31. Duke (8-3), blowing their chance Thursday night. 32. Notre Dame (7-4), dropping like a rock. 33. Utah (7-4).

TIER F, the transition from the "top level" teams to the "mid-level" ones: 34. Maryland (7-4). 35. Stanford (6-5), with an impressive win at Cal. 36. South Carolina (6-5). 37. Florida (6-4), but not good enough to keep their coach, apparently. 38. West Virginia (6-5). 39. Miami-FL (6-5). 40. Texas (6-5).

Week 9 College Tiers - the Top Third (Tiers A through G)...

Thanks to the classic 35-31 SEC matchup in Oxford, there was one change in the Top Six, with a straight swap that moved Auburn into Tier A and Ole Miss down to Tier B with their second loss (they're still the highest of the two-loss teams, but consider their two losses!). 

Look also for movement upwards from K-State, Arizona St, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and UCLA; falls from Georgia (where's the rushing D?), Kentucky, and East Carolina in particular...

Tier A: 8-0 Florida St and Mississippi St, along with 7-1 Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame (barely), and TCU (even more barely!).

Tier B: Besides 7-2 Ole Miss, five one-loss teams with "acceptable" losses and impressive wins fill out the knights-in-waiting: Baylor, Kansas St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Oregon.

Tier C: These are the "if bedlam strikes above us - and it's been known to happen" teams in terms of the CFP committee's four precious roses: Four Pac-12 teams (Arizona at 6-2, Arizona St at 7-1, USC at 6-3, and Utah at 6-2) sit alongside LSU (7-2) and Nebraska (8-1). Truth be told, this tier doesn't need all four Pac-12 teams, but none of the teams below them deserve to knock them out. Probably Arizona St is the only truly likely possibility to challenge, along with the Tigers and Huskers.

Tier D: Under the heading, "if hell freezes over", we look at these clubs in slots 19-24: 6-1 Duke, Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East (two losses each), 5-2 Oklahoma, 7-2 UCLA, and 6-2 Wisconsin, so much more impressive in recent weeks.

Tier E: A wild mixture sits just outside the top 24, ranging from 5-4 Kentucky to 8-0 Marshall (needless to say, the competition differs from C-USA to the SEC!). Also present are Clemson (6-2), the Mountain West's best, Colorado St (8-1), 7-2 Georgia Tech (who impressed yesterday against Virginia), and hard-luck West Virginia, whose three losses are to Alabama, Oklahoma, and TCU.

Tier F: Six six-win teams populate tier F - East Carolina, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Miami-FL, and Minnesota.

Tier G: Rounding off the upper 42 are 6-2 Boise St, 5-4 California-Berkeley, 5-4 Oklahoma St, and three more SEC teams with erratic records: Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. 

We've reached the Week 8 CFB tiers Penthouse!

That's right, the thirty best teams as decided on the field so far this year, divided into the top five tiers (and no closer, as berated before!), for your amusement!

Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]

Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!

Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12). 

Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).

As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!

Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though! 

[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]

The Tiers have NARROWED for Week 7!

As we reach the halfway point of the season, we're narrowing the tiers again, down to SIX teams per tier. Eventually we'll get down to four, and at season's end we'll submit our final ranking order, from 1-124...but it's premature and unnecessary to do so now.

Tier A hosts the top six school teams as of now: three undefeateds (Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Florida St*) and three teams whose one loss was narrow, on the road, and to a top tier team (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU). Hard to deny them - almost hard to think there will be ANY unbeatens at season's end except for minor league champ Marshall.

Tier B contains six one-loss power teams, any of whom we could see beating even the Tier A teams on a given day: Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Oregon.

Tier C has Arizona, Duke, LSU, Nebraska, USC, and West Virginia. The Wildcats, Blue Devils, and Cornhuskers have one loss each; the others have last twice. But none of the nine losses were what you'd call embarrassing or 'inappropriate' - losing to good teams, no blowouts, and so forth. They'll hold their own against almost anyone, but we'd make them underdogs to the Tier A and B teams in a heartbeat.

When we get down to Tier D, some of these losses are a bit less excusable. These equate to rankings #19-24 in a conventional poll: Arizona St (5-1), East Carolina (5-1), Kansas St (5-1), Oklahoma (5-2), UCLA (5-2), and 5-1 Utah.

Tier E is essentially the equivalent of the fourth tier in last week's divisions, if comparisons are important to you: 5-2 Clemson, Colorado St (6-1), Kentucky (5-2), undefeated Marshall, Minnesota (6-1), and 5-2 Oklahoma St.

Tier F hosts six teams that (while not deserving grades of "F"!) have been disappointments at one level or another, more recently in particular: Georgia Tech (5-2, losers of their last two), Louisville (6-2), Maryland and Missouri (both 5-2), idle 4-2 Penn St, and free-falling Texas A&M, losers of three straight to three Tier A teams! What a killer schedule!

Now we've reached the levels of "receiving token votes" in the conventional polls, but these teams all have successes to boast of this year: Boise St, Miami-FL, Oregon St, Rutgers, Washington, and Wisconsin. All except the U have two losses; the Hurricanes have three. So, that's Tier G.

Tier H changed in drafts several times, but we've settled on Arkansas (4-3 in the toughest division in CFB history), Iowa (5-2), 4-3 Stanford and South Carolina and Utah St and Virginia.

The last level matching up with last week's divisions is Tier I, which features these competent teams: Air Force, Boston College, California, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Virginia Tech.

In the unofficial "tiery-eyed teams in waiting" green room are such teams as Bowling Green, fast-falling BYU, Florida, Houston, Northwestern, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Temple, and Texas Tech.

*If the Tallahassee police and FSU compliance officers truly put justice ahead of football success, do you think the Seminoles would still be undefeated?

And on the flip side, the Bottom Eight becomes the Bottom Six (plus seven more)... The undisputed master of the B6 is the lone winless team left in the FBS, the coachless SMU Mustangs, joined by Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St, and Troy. "Congratulations" to those clubs, some of whom were so far down that even a win didn't get them out of the basement!

Waiting for entrance to the exclusive club are Appalachian St, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, North Texas, UConn and UMass. Actually, three of those just escaped the B8, so "waiting" is inappropriate...

This is why we watch the FCS!

Northern Colorado combines the rare "return-the-blocked-XP-for-a-score" with the equally rare "six-lateral-let's-emulate-ThePlay" in a failed attempt to beat GPS's alma mater Sacramento State last weekend...sorry, guys! Gotta make it INTO the end zone!

Blocked extra point return..

(Edit:This link also happens to have the Dayton kickoff return TD from the adjacent post as an added bonus! Didn't notice that at first viewing!)