UPS and DOWNS for the Last Week of October!

Yes, we've been negligent in our UPS and DOWNS this month, so let's see if we can make it up to you today with a BIG long list!

UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)

DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...

UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.

DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.

UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!

DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)

DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...

UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.

Maybe you just shouldn't punt!

After last night's disaster by the Indianapolis Colts (represented here, including a version by the Maine 1-AA team that shows how it might have meant to work), and the unbelievable last play of the Michigan/Michigan State game Saturday, perhaps we should all just go Pulaski Academy and never punt the ball again!

There's been a serious move in the "punt-less" direction over the last two years, where coaches "challenge the conventional wisdom" by going for it on fourth down around midfield, or even slightly on their own side of the field if it's short enough; but no somber commitment to the cause. I consider myself somewhat conservative in my approach, and here's the set of general rules I'd use as a head football coach if I were ever forced into the job...

Past midfield? Never punt.
Between your own 30 and midfield?Go for 4th and anything less than 3. Maybe 4-5, depending...
Behind your own 30? Go for 4th and 1 or less. Maybe 2...

(Subject to what kind of team I have, the opponent, the conditions, the time left in the game, etc.)

So, why don't more coaches punt less - like, WAY less? Here's the take of Paul Dalen, who wrote the piece for SB Nation about the math behind Pulaski's work linked above...

I don't think this kind of analysis would be a surprise to any decent coach. So, why do coaches "play it safe" (as if it weren't safer to make the choice to score more points)?

The answer to that, I think, lies in the way that we view errors of commission versus errors of omission. Or in other words, a coach that makes a choice to punt the ball from the 20-yard line would be viewed as making sound decisions, whereas one that chooses to go for it on the 20-yard line is considered a risk-taker. If the decision to punt turns out to be the decision that gives the ball back and the opponent then scores a TD, then the decision to punt is hardly considered as part of the evaluation of the sequence of events. If the decision to go for it fails and the opponent scores a TD, then the decision will be second-guessed ad nauseum. The result of both decisions is the same, but one would be criticized much more harshly than the other.

Humans are funny creatures.

We are indeed...we are indeed.

(Now, by the way, Kevin Kelley of Pulaski Academy also believes in onside kickoffs after almost every score - and they score a LOT; they're 10-0 this season - and now, he's planning on incorporating rugby style lateral passing into virtually every downfield play, something I've wondered about for years! WHY, if we think it'll work on the last play of the game, do we NEVER use downfield laterals the REST of the game? Wouldn't practicing it make it less dangerous by an order of magnitude or more?)

Is it too early to talk Top 30 in college football?

Yes. Yes it is.

However, Sports Illustrated doesn't think so, and they've put out their "post-spring camp Top 25" plus five more, and it's an interesting list to peruse...

1. Ohio State                                       11. Stanford                                           21. Georgia Tech
2. Baylor                                              12. Ole Miss                                          22. Oklahoma
3. Auburn                                            13. Arizona                                            23. BYU
4. Alabama                                          14. USC                                                  24. LSU
5. Michigan St                                    15. Boise State                                      25. Oklahoma St
6. TCU                                                  16. Clemson                                          26. Arkansas
7. Notre Dame                                    17. Missouri                                          27. Utah
8. UCLA                                               18. Georgia                                           28. Mississippi St
9. Florida St                                        19. Arizona St                                       29. Texas
10. Oregon                                           20. Wisconsin                                      30. Michigan

 I find this list absolutely fascinating to contemplate, which is why I post it. At Following Football, we do NOT rank football teams until somewhen in mid-October at the earliest. What we do do is group teams into what we call "tiers"; eventually there'll be about twenty tiers, A through T or so, even when they're ranked (that's also how we project game outcomes) but at the very beginning of the season? We'll divide them up into two, three, four tiers...then six or seven...then maybe eight or ten..until we have enough information to rank them all, #1-127. (UAB football, rest in peace.)

But about THIS list? Look at these crunchy tidbits!
> Auburn 3 and Alabama 4? Delicious!
> OSU deserves #1, but MSU isn't very far behind at #5...
> Baylor at 2 and TCU way back at 6? But TCU's the one bringing their QB back!
> How about this one? Everett Golson goes to perennial playoff contender Florida St, #9... but the team he left is #7!
> Look at the Pac-12! UCLA #8, Oregon #10, Stanford #11, Arizona #13, USC #14, and Arizona State at #19! (Even Utah sneaking in at 27!) THAT will be a packed conference!
> The "Group of Five" better figure out a way to defeat Boise State! They start the season ranked this year...even a loss or two may not knock them out of the top non-Power spot! (Only BYU sits on the list, at #23, to challenge.)
> Oklahoma 22 and Okee State 25? Fun!
> Arkansas 26 and Texas 29? (Or OU/UT? Or...)
> And look who they've got sneaking in at #30! High hopes, indeed, Mr. Harbaugh!

Comparing the final rankings...

It's always interesting to compare opinions, especially when the entire point of sports is to enjoy the competition between your guys and their guys and in doing so, comparing the two teams - and in the context of an entire season, comparing your guys to a slough of "their guys" and deciding how far up the ladder your guys are. (Ladies: "guys" is meant as a unisex term here.)

So, with that in mind, here's a list based on the Following Football #1-128 tiered ranking system that includes the final poll from the AP writers, the Sagaring rating system (if you need a primer in the Sagarin system, let me know!), the Massey Index (which compares and compiles 91 different computer and human ranking systems and then provides us with (for lack of a better term) a 'consensus' result), and the Superlist, which combines the six known meta-lists and gives us a different kind of consensus!

(The Sagarin rating and rank are in red simply to make the two connect visually better. The actual Sagarin rankings include the FCS teams: Eastern Michigan is really #208 in the country, out of 252! Also, the letters on the Massey rankings are tiers, just like FF uses: while these come from our hand, they're denoting the natural breaks in the totals - where there's a big gap between schools and where the groupings are.)

				Final		Final	Final	Final
Final			Final	Sagarin		Massey	Superlist	AP
Ranking	Team	Conf	Record	rating		Ranking	Ranking	rank
A1	Ohio St	b10	14-1	100.81	1	A1	1	1
A2	Oregon	pac	13-2	95.71	4	A2	2	2
A3	Alabama	sec	12-2	96.83	3	A3	3	4
A4	Florida St	acc	13-1	84.86	16	B7	6	5T
A5	TCU	b12	12-1	99.58	2	A4	4	3
B06	Michigan St	b10	11-2	93.36	6	B+5	5	5T
B07	Baylor	b12	11-2	90.57	7	B8	8	7
B08	Georgia Tech	acc	11-3	87.42	12	C09	11	8
B09	Mississippi St	sec	10-3	89.19	9	C12	14	11
B10	Georgia	sec	10-3	95.13	5	B6	7	9
B11	UCLA	pac	10-3	84.71	17	C11	9	10
C12	Ole Miss	sec	9-4	89.82	8	C10	10	17
C13	Missouri	sec	11-3	85.06	15	D13	13	14
C14	Kansas St	b12	9-4	84.48	19	E20	24	18
C15	Clemson	acc	10-3	87.03	13	D15	12	15
C16	Wisconsin	b10	11-3	83.48	21	D14	15	13
C17	Auburn	sec	8-5	88.40	11	E16	17	22
D18	Boise St	mw	12-2	77.43	36	E17	19	16
D19	Arizona St	pac	10-3	81.96	25	E19	16	12
D20	USC	pac	9-4	84.19	20	E18	18	20
D21	Arizona	pac	10-4	77.76	33	E22	20	19
D22	LSU	sec	8-5	85.53	14	F25	26
D23	Utah	pac	9-4	82.75	23	F26	23	21
E24	Texas A&M	sec	8-5	82.82	22	G29	27
E25	Stanford	pac	8-5	84.61	18	F24	22
E26	Arkansas	sec	7-6	88.48	10	F23	21
E27	Nebraska	b10	9-4	81.09	29	G28	30
E28	Oklahoma	b12	8-5	81.47	27	G30	31
E29	Louisville	acc	9-4	80.60	30	G27	28	24
E30	Marshall	cusa	13-1	82.36	24	E21	25	23
E31	Notre Dame	ind	8-5	79.83	31	H+32	32
E32	Minnesota	b10	8-5	76.17	37	H34	35
E33	Duke	acc	9-4	74.99	41	I40	40
F34	Florida	sec	7-5	81.48	26	H+31	29
F35	South Carolina	sec	7-6	77.56	35	I39	38
F36	Colorado St	mw	10-3	69.51	60	I38	37
F37	Memphis	aac	10-3	76.11	38	H33	34	25
G38	West Virginia	b12	7-6	78.53	32	I+36	36
G39	Washington	pac	8-6	74.34	43	J+43	39
G40	Cincinnati	aac	8-4	71.48	55	J46	53
G41	Miami-FL	acc	6-7	75.08	40	K49	51
G42	Utah St	mw	10-4	72.70	49	J+41	45
H43	North Carolina St	acc	8-5	73.21	45	J+42	42
H44	Maryland	b10	7-6	72.39	52	K54	48
H45	Tennessee	sec	7-6	81.39	28	H35	33
H46	Northern Illinois	mac	11-3	68.08	65	K53	54
H47	Rutgers	b10	8-5	70.53	59	J47	41
H48	Penn St	b10	7-6	73.55	44	K55	49
H49	Air Force	mw	10-3	67.79	69	J45	47
I50	Texas	b12	6-7	72.42	51	K51	52
I51	Oklahoma St	b12	7-6	72.46	50	K50	44
I52	Iowa	b10	7-6	73.13	46	L+57	56
I53	Boston College	acc	7-6	74.36	42	J48	50
I54	Kentucky	sec	5-7	73.04	47	M70	64
J55	Central Florida	aac	9-4	71.18	56	K56	61
J56	East Carolina	aac	8-5	69.44	62	L62	69
J57	BYU	ind	8-5	71.61	53	K52	55
J58	Louisiana Tech	cusa	9-5	77.57	34	I37	46
J59	Virginia Tech	acc	7-6	75.30	39	J44	43
J60	Navy	ind	8-5	68.05	66	L+58	57
K61	North Carolina	acc	6-7	67.60	70	M69	63
K62	Georgia Southern	sun	9-3	69.47	61	L59	62
K63	UL-Lafayette	sun	9-4	66.68	71	M66	67
K64	Western Kentucky	cusa	8-5	66.24	73	L64	70
Final			Final	Sagarin		Massey	Superlist
Ranking	Team	Conf	Record	rating		Ranking	Ranking
K65	California	pac	5-7	71.55	54	M65	58
K66	Oregon St	pac	5-7	66.05	75	N76	71
K67	Michigan	b10	5-7	70.70	58	L63	59
L68	Western Michigan	mac	8-5	64.84	80	N75	78
L69	Houston	aac	8-5	67.89	68	M-71	75
L70	Pitt	acc	6-7	70.86	57	M68	72
L71	Illinois	b10	6-7	65.10	77	N+73	73
L72	Nevada	mw	7-6	64.28	81	N+74	74
L73	Toledo	mac	9-4	68.01	67	L61	65
M74	Texas Tech	b12	4-8	66.48	72	O+78	77
M75	Virginia	acc	5-7	72.79	48	L60	60
M76	Rice	cusa	8-5	68.39	64	M67	66
M77	San Diego St	mw	7-6	64.12	82	N-77	79
M78	Northwestern	b10	5-7	69.29	63	M-72	68
N79	Temple	aac	6-6	65.00	79	O81	83
N80	Bowling Green	mac	8-6	57.13	98	P89	90
N81	Arkansas St	sun	7-6	65.04	78	P+83	86
N82	Central Michigan	mac	7-6	62.07	87	P86	88
O83	Fresno St	mw	6-8	59.13	92	P88	85
O84	UTEP	cusa	7-6	61.44	89	O82	80
O85	UAB	cusa	6-6	65.30	76	O+79	82
O86	Washington St	pac	3-9	66.18	74	O80	76
O87	Texas St	sun	7-5	58.75	93	P90	92
O88	Appalachian St	sun	7-5	61.82	88	P87	95
O89	Kansas	b12	3-9	58.31	94	Q95	91
O90	Syracuse	acc	3-9	62.97	84	P91	87
O91	South Alabama	sun	6-7	55.89	104	Q96	98
P92	Purdue	b10	4-8	62.34	86	Q94	94
P93	Ohio	mac	6-6	54.80	107	R099	104
P94	Middle Tennessee	cusa	6-6	60.79	91	P+84	84
P95	Colorado	pac	2-10	62.93	85	Q+93	93
P96	Iowa St	b12	2-10	61.38	90	R+97	96
Q097	UL-Monroe	sun	4-8	55.96	103	S107	108
Q098	Ball St	mac	5-7	57.68	96	R102	105
Q099	Wyoming	mw	4-8	56.46	102	R098	97
Q100	Buffalo	mac	5-6	53.54	110	S108	114
Q101	Wake Forest	acc	3-9	56.50	101	S+103	102
Q102	Indiana	b10	3-9	64.04	83	P+85	81
R103	Hawai'i	mw	4-9	56.78	100	S106	101
R104	Old Dominion	cusa	6-6	58.08	95	Q+92	89
R105	South Florida	aac	4-8	52.68	114	S109	110
R106	New Mexico	mw	4-8	55.18	105	R101	99
R107	Vanderbilt	sec	3-9	57.14	97	R100	100
R108	FIU	cusa	4-8	56.99	99	S104	106
S109	Florida Atlantic	cusa	3-9	53.75	109	T+112	111
S110	Akron	mac	5-7	54.86	106	S110	112
S111	Tulane	aac	3-9	53.29	112	T+111	107
S112	Army	ind	4-8	51.59	117	T116	116
S113	North Texas	cusa	4-8	52.95	113	T115	113
S114	Southern Miss	cusa	3-9	53.54	111	T113	115
T115	San Jose St	mw	3-9	52.04	115	T114	109
T116	UT-San Antonio	sun	4-7	54.31	108	S105	103
T117	Miami-OH	mac	2-10	50.26	118	U120	121
T118	Troy	sun	3-9	46.10	123	U122	122
T119	Tulsa	aac	2-10	48.43	119	U118	118
T120	UNLV	mw	2-11	46.94	121	U121	119
U121	Kent St	mac	2-9	47.47	120	U119	120
U122	U Massachusetts	mac	3-9	51.69	116	U117	117
U123	U Conn	aac	2-10	44.70	125	V+123	123
U124	Idaho	sun	1-10	46.66	122	V125	127
U125	Eastern Michigan	mac	2-10	38.77	128	V126	126
U126	SMU	aac	1-11	39.15	127	V124	124
V127	New Mexico St	sun	2-10	45.20	124	V127	125
V128	Georgia St	sun	1-11	41.00	126	V-128	128

A few interesting things to notice:  Yes, Ohio State gets #1 in all systems, but not really unanimously. TCU actually had the highest Sagarin rating by two full points before the Buckeye beatdown on Oregon's finest...Florida State's position is as uncertain as ever: we still have them fourth, since we had them top four and in the playoff before it started; but some organizations drop them out of the top four, and in fact their rankings range from 4 down to 16!...Michigan State's in the top six in every system. Big month for the B1G!...Lotta love for Marshall in the final analysis - top 25 in all set-ups except ours...Also hard to believe the last place team in a division could be in the top 25, but Arkansas' annihilation of Texas and the last few games of their season is pushing their stock up into the high twenties!...Florida, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, and Louisiana Tech are all getting much higher rankings from all of the other systems than we gave them: I guess we're going to have to take another look, aren't we?...Certain combinations you tend to look for automatically, right? Nebraska finished ahead of Oklahoma across the board; Michigan is generally ahead of their directional schools, especially up-and-coming Western Michigan...Speaking of Broncos, how about Boise State, carrying the banner for the small programs once again - the first non-power conference team to win three BCS/New Year's Six games (only one to PLAY in that many, too!)...If this really was Alabama-Birmingham's last year of football, they fared commendably: 6-6, with every ranking between 76 and 85....The dis-honor of the lowest Power Conference team goes to Wake Forest, although within the FF rankings, Vanderbilt fell below the Demon Deacons....And, as always, the Bottom Twelve or so are set in concrete, with virtually identical membership from all four rating systems (Army gets its nose in twelfth from the bottom on the Sagarin scale) - Miami - OH, Troy, Tulsa, UNLV, Kent St, UMass, UConn, Idaho, Eastern Michigane, SMU, New Mexico St, and last place holder, Georgia St. A lack of sincerity in our congratulations to ALL of you!