Bonus college coverage of the Weird, Wild, and Wondrous!

Some interesting / amusing / head-scratching / curious notes from the weekend's action...

1. Kansas State marching band apologizes to Univ of Kansas for ramming a Jayhawk with the Star Trek Enterprise in their marching show. So, the marching band wars have begun...

2. After missing 2/3 of the season last year, Heisman candidate Taysom Hill of BYU will miss all but one half of football in 2015 after injuring his foot against Nebraska yesterday. We feel absolutely heartbroken for the young man, who is nothing but impressive when you hear him speak and watch him perform on the field. Having said that, his back-up is a local Idaho boy, Tanner Mangum, who literally got back from his mission just three months ago and is already a hero after the Hail Mary that made the Cougars 1-0 this season.

3. Similarly, the top defensive player in the country, Scoobie Wright of Arizona, also got injured this weekend, but with surgery should be back in a month or so. Wright is a transcendent player, and you wonder whether a repaired knee will maintain his remarkable athleticism, no matter how "minor" the surgery. Prayers.

4. Thanks to a blocked extra point by the Aggies in the first, much of the Southern Utah/Utah State game took place with the scoreboard set at 6-5. Utah State may have been the least impressive winner of the weekend, lucking out with a punt return TD in the last six minutes to win the game. But their offense did nothing, even with "Chuckie" back at the the helm, against an FCS team. A field goal on a short field, the two point XP which was the difference on the scoreboard, and the special teams touchdown were all they could produce against a lower-echelon team from the Big Sky. Hardly the stuff of the potential Mountain West "favorite". 

5. Week One routs were the order of the day in some parts of the world. We understand the theory, the mutual back-scratching that goes on in these games: The powerhouse conference team wants an easy warm-up game to start the season; the lower-level team needs the paycheck from the host team to balance their athletic budget - win/win situation. But it makes for some unwatchable games: Syracuse 47, Rhode Island 0; Wake Forest 41, Elon 3; Georgia Tech 69, Alcorn St 6; Miami-FL 45, Bethune-Cookman 0... and that was just in the ACC! Of course, when you get the really weak teams like Savannah State or Davidson, you get games with more penalties than offensive yards, with more turnovers than first downs, and so forth. Read the play-by-plays of either of the games these two played on Saturday, and imagine what motivation it would take to watch the game (unless you love car wrecks...).

6. Not a funny...New Mexico State not only got robbed on the field by Florida, they got robbed off the field as burglars broke into their busses and stole the athletic staff's bags. 

7. What do you do if you can't get off the field in time? Like, say, when your shoe comes off? If you play for Bowling Green, you play dead. If you play quarterback for Tennessee, you're not too happy about it....

8. Oh! We almost forgot to mention the name font on Louisville's unis yesterday! 

So, let's assume Boise finishes off Fresno tonight...

...(and it's 28-0 in the third quarter), what will our "final" FF tier-rankings look like? And, therefore, what do WE think the big bowls should look like when they're announced tomorrow?

Rank     Team                         Conf  Rec     Conf rec

A1	Oregon	pac	12-1	9-1
A2	Alabama	sec	12-1	8-1
A3	Florida St	acc	13-0	9-0
A4	Ohio St	b10	12-1	9-0
A5	TCU	b12	11-1	8-1
A6	Baylor	b12	11-1	8-1
B07	Mississippi St	sec	10-2	6-2
B08	Michigan St	b10	10-2	7-1
B09	Georgia Tech	acc	10-3	6-3
B10	Ole Miss	sec	9-3	5-3
B11	Kansas St	b12	9-3	7-2
B12	Auburn	sec	8-4	5-3
C13	LSU	sec	8-4	4-4
C14	Georgia	sec	9-3	6-2
C15	Missouri	sec	10-3	7-2
C16	Arizona	pac	10-3	7-3
C17	UCLA	pac	9-3	6-3
C18	Arizona St	pac	9-3	6-3
D19	Oklahoma	b12	8-4	5-4
D20	Wisconsin	b10	10-3	7-2
D21	Clemson	acc	9-3	6-2
D22	USC	pac	8-4	6-3
D23	Boise St	mw	11-2	8-1
D24	Minnesota	b10	8-4	5-3
E25	Nebraska	b10	9-3	5-3
E26	Louisville	acc	9-3	5-3
E27	Texas A&M	sec	7-5	3-5
E28	Arkansas	sec	6-6	2-6
E29	Duke	acc	9-3	5-3
E30	Colorado St	mw	10-2	6-2

We did what we suspect the committee MIGHT do (DESPITE all of OUR protests to the contrary over the last five days!) and LEAPFROG Ohio St over TCU (as we said, no matter what the committee's rankings said, Florida St was safe with a win, or there would be a nationwide manhunt for dead committee members).

We saw Ohio St take their third-string quarterback and do the same thing to freak'n Wisconsin that the Frogs did to 2-10 Iowa St, at home nonetheless... It's completely conceivable that the committee put OSU five so that if they were to win weakly with a backup at QB (the SAME backup they'd have in the playoffs), they could leave them OUT of the playoff with impunity. 

Here's another factor we take seriously here as Christians; it remains to be seen if it comes into play tomorrow. The Big Twelve blatantly changed its own rules last week to try to sneak TCU into the playoff. Despite their rules (ratified THIS SUMMER!) saying that head-to-head alone decided the conference champ, they knew the committee had insisted that conference champions would get first priority. Without the change, TCU was NOT a conference champ. Now they are. POOF! We are hopeful that a committee with people like Condoleeza Rice on it is ethical enough not to reward that kind of chicanery. Ohio St is an authentic conference champion. (So are Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St.) There's your four playoff teams. DONE.

What about the other bowls?

Automatic bids: Baylor (Big 12 champion, by the 'real' definition), and Boise St (Group of Five highest ranked champion).

Next teams in: TCU, Mississippi St, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, and Kansas St. (Your mileage may vary. These teams are much more subject to flux, as are their bowl placements.)

Bowl placements (the other four are best guess only):

Sugar Bowl (playoff): Florida St (#3) v. Alabama (#2)

Rose Bowl (playoff): Ohio St (#4) v. Oregon (#1)

    [As an aside, the B1G, Pac-12, and SEC champs go to their "traditional" sites. Dumb luck.]

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) v. Baylor (Big12 champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Boise St (Group of 5) v. Kansas St (Big 12)

Cotton Bowl: TCU (Big12) v. Ole Miss (SEC)

Peach Bowl: Mississippi St (SEC) v  Michigan St (Big 10)

SO? What do you think? We'll post the other #31-128 in a separate post momentarily...

Thoughts from championship Saturday....

As the game between TCU and Iowa St is reaching its 55-3 conclusion, with the Horned Frogs having made their statement to the playoff committee, two tweets retweeted by TCU reporter Stefan Stevenson caught our eye. The first remarks on the ethics of coach Gary Patterson: 

• 
  3 hStefan Stevenson@FollowtheFrogs

  #Classystylepoints "@calexmendez: TCU has 55 points, kneeled on a fourth-and-goal at the 6.... with 4:05 to go."

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• Immediately thereafter, the opposing viewpoint, or at least ONE opposing thought, was presented:

• 
  3 hStefan Stevenson@FollowtheFrogs

  Yep. "@byjoelanderson: If I played for Iowa State, I'd be way more offended that they treated us like a Make-A-Wish squad."

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As we discussed Tuesday night, the committee has already made their decision, and 55-3 isn't going to give them any reason to change their minds... TCU will be in the playoff.

Congratulations to the SMU Mustangs! After the season from hell, in which their coach quit on them, two games in; in which game after game, their opponents have dominated them on both sides of the ball; in which, on the one occasion that they looked like  should win, South Florida drove the field for a touchdown, made them punt, and then finished the game with a ridiculous 21-play, eight-minute, three 4th down conversion drive that ended with a six yard touchdown pass on fourth down with six seconds to play to win 14-13...after all of that, they finally came up with a fourth quarter score to break a 20-all tie and defeat conference foe Connecticut 27-20. They end the season 1-11, break a thirteen game losing streak, and prevent the 2014 season from having a winless season this year.

Think about this: The 1-11 SMU Mustangs will enter the 2015 season on a longer winning streak than THREE of the four playoff teams will!

Good on you, Oklahoma St! On a five-game losing streak, down 35-21 to their Bedlam rivals Oklahoma, it would have been easy and understandable to simply let down and give in. Instead, they scored a touchdown, stopped the Sooners, and ran a punt return back to tie the game and send it on to overtime, where they just kicked a field goal to not only upset their rivals but become bowl eligible. 

The FCS playoffs are in the Round of Sixteen, and besides the Sam Houston St upset of Jacksonville St (that we predicted, thank you!), the home teams have rolled. Except for the defending champs, North Dakota St, who hosted their cross-border rivals from South Dakota St. The game was neck and neck, and SDSU moved ahead 24-20 with just over three minutes to go. The Bison did what all great teams do - they showed their greatness by driving the length of the field when they HAD to, scored that must-have touchdown with a perfect pass with fifty-four seconds to go, and intercepted the first pass SDSU threw to seal the victory. 

Hard to argue with the shows that three of the four CFP top four teams put on over the last twenty-four hours: we talked about TCU's victory, but Alabama and Oregon both won conference championships at neutral sites over division title winners with disarming ease. Last night, the Ducks avenged their only loss by annihilating Arizona 51-13, with Marcus Mariota clinching his impending Heisman Trophy win with five TDs with his arm and his legs. This afternoon, the Crimson Tide rolled over Missouri, 42-13, with Blake Sims confirming his coaches' faith in him when they surprised folks by naming him the starter. Now, it's up to defending champion Florida St to complete the picture tonight by beating the teams they beat exactly two years ago to start their 28-game winning streak, the Georgia Tech. If they win, the committee WILL NOT remove them from the playoffs. It just won't happen! But if they LOSE, they're gone. Period. Then,...who? Ohio St? Baylor? Both have tough games (Wisconsin and Kansas St, respectively) that they'll have to win to give the committee the opportunity to move them up into the four-spot.

What games are on tap for Week 12?

Of the sixty FBS games this week, the Las Vegas/Reno casino bookies, the folks who make their living by predicting the (perceived!) outcome of the games agreed with the predictions we made based on the tiered rankings we posted on Sunday.

For the record, we predict the outcome of games as follows: Count the number of tiers that the two teams differ by. So, for example, if one team is Tier B and the other is Tier G, there is a five tier difference (C, D, E, F, G) between them. Then, multiply that by 1 1/2 points for the neutral field advantage the higher team would have. Finally, give the home team an extra three points (if they're favored already, add three to the spread; if they're the underdog, subtract three). There's your prediction. (We've been known to adjust for unusual circumstances: when BYU lost their all-star QB, for example, the tiers had not adjusted for that at the time. Similarly, there might be motivating factors - rivalries, etc. - that urge us to change the spread - but we rarely do! More often than not, what you see is what you get...WYSIWYG!

Here are the games that have a significant difference between our forecasts and theirs:

UMass @ Akron Tuesday ... we say Akron by 3, they say by 7 1/2. They win. Akron 30, UMass 6. 
Kansas St @ West Virginia Thursday...we say K-St by 1, they say WV by 2 1/2! Our point! K-St 26, WVU 20.
UTEP @ Rice Friday...we say Rice wins by 2, they say Rice by 9. They lead 2-1. Rice wins big, 31-13.
Fordham @ Army Saturday...no forecast from Vegas because Fordham's an FCS school, but we believe they should be favored over Army by a point! Army 42-31.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St... there are a bunch of routs forecasted where the point difference between a 25 and a 35 point blowout is pointless to quibble over, but in this case, we're going to point out that we see a six-point win for Ball St, and Vegas sees seventeen! They were closer - it was 15. So they lead us 4-1 now...
Maryland @ Michigan... We have the Terps by five, Vegas has Michigan by 4.5! We cheered Maryland's late TD for the win, 23-16!
Florida International @ North Texas...we think it'll be FIU by two; they see UNT by 2! They were on again! UNT 17, FIU 14!
"The Big Game"! Stanford @ California...the home of the greatest, most controversial play in college football history in 1982. We have Cal by 3 1/2, they have Stanford by 6. We were doubly afraid of this one, with all our Berkeley relations...but it was Leland Sanford Junior University with the 38-17 win. Vegas up 6-2 now.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee...We see it as even; they have MTSU by 6 1/2! We're counting this one on our side - one is closer to "even" than it is to six! 35-34, Blue Raiders.
Oklahoma St @ Baylor...Another potential blowout, but our spreads differ significantly - we see Baylor by 11; they think the Bears will win by 27!  They'd have been spot on if Baylor wanted to run it up...49-28 in bad weather. 7-2, casinos.
Missouri @ Tennessee is the last game we'll compare - we have Mizzou by 1; they think the Volunteers win at home by 3 1/2. Missouri wins, 29-21, so we go into Sunday down four with four to go. Dormie at 7-3 down...

On the pro side, there are only four games to compare:
Cleveland @ Atlanta... We think Cleveland by 1; they see Atlanta by 3 1/2. And thanks to some terrible clock management, we were vindicated by the Browns' last-second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Houston...We think the Bengals win by 1; Vegas says Houston by 1 1/2. And the Bengals won comfortably. Two for two today - we still have a chance!
Arizona @ Seattle...We differ on the effect of the home field: Arizona by 2 on our board, Seattle by six on theirs!
Baltimore @ New Orleans  on Monday night...We call it even; they see the Saints with a 3 1/2 point advantage at home. Looks like it may wait until Monday night to determine whether we win or lose!

Interesting games this weekend...

Here are the college games that will keep us attentive this weekend...

In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!

Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...

Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!

Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...

Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.

We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.

Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...

What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?

How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?

Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)

Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....

The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!

South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).

The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!

Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).

Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.

Oklahoma v K-State...wow!

Oklahoma finds a way to lose to the Wildcats...somehow. Amazingly, they score a TD down 31-24, get the XP BLOCKED, then get the ball back and drive down to a 1st and goal at the 2...run three times and get no closer than the 1...and yanks the chip shot field goal wide left! K-State then shows some guts, gets a couple of first downs, and runs out the last four minutes to win, 31—30. Ridiculous... The chances of losing that game should've been infinitesimal!