As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...
WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...
WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.
WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.
WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.
WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!
WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.
WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!
WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.
WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)
WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.
WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.
WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.
But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.
South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.
WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!
Showing posts with label Patriots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Patriots. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Monday, November 2, 2015
Our first rankings - pro and FCS version!
In keeping with the College Football Playoff committee's first rankings coming out tomorrow evening, we also wait until now to actually rank our (American) football teams - until there's a truly legitimate body of work to evaluate with. Yesterday, we posted the FBS list (check the previous post out), and now here's the NFL and FCS (Division 1-AA) rosters, still utilizing tiers as we have all year (that's how we determine point spreads), but also including rankings for the top thirty or so and the bottom sixteen...
In the NFL, following the Broncos' upset of the Packers last night, there's a definitive #1...
Tier A) 1. New England Patriots (7-0) - 2. Cincinnati Bengals (7-0) - 3. Carolina Panthers (6-0) - 4. Denver Broncos (7-0).
Tier B) 5. Green Bay Packers (6-1) - 6. Arizona Cardinals (5-2) - 7. Seattle Seahawks (4-3).
Tier C) 8. St. Louis Rams (4-3) - 9. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) - 10. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) - 11. Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) - 12. Atlanta Falcons (6-2).
Tier D) 13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) - 14. Buffalo Bills (3-4) - 15. Oakland Raiders (4-3).
Tier E) 16. New York Jets (4-3) - 17. Baltimore Ravens (2-6) - 18. San Diego Chargers (2-6) - 19. New Orleans Saints (4-4).
Tier F) 20. Washington Redskins (3-4) - 21. New York Giants (4-4) - 22. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - 23. Dallas Cowboys (2-5) - 24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4).
Tier G) 25. Chicago Bears (2-5) - 26. San Francisco 49ers (2-6) - 27. Houston Texans (3-5) - 28. Cleveland Browns (2-6) - 29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).
Tier H) 30. Indianapolis Colts (3-4) - 31. Detroit Lions (1-7) - 32. Tennessee Titans (1-6).
And in the FCS, there's just one team in the top tier - the one who took the Auburn Tigers to overtime on the road... (Note that we've combined all 1-AA conferences into this one ranking for a change. We'll single out the others afterwards.) Remember that all these tiers match with the FBS tiers, so in theory a team in Tier L here is equal to a Tier L team on the FBS list, and vice versa. We've ranked the top 28 and the bottom 16; the rest are in random order within their tiers as usual:
Tier L) 1. Jacksonville St (5-0 ovc, 7-1 overall).
Tier M) 2. Illinois St (5-0 mvc, 7-1) - 3. North Dakota St (4-1 mvc, 6-2).
Tier N) 4. Southern Utah (5-0 big sky, 6-2) - 5. Portland St (4-1 bgsky, 7-1) - 6. South Dakota St (3-2 mvc, 6-2).
Tier O) 7. Chattanooga (5-0 sthn, 7-1) - 8. Youngstown St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 9. McNeese St (7-0 sthld, 8-0) - 10. Harvard (4-0 ivy, 7-0) - 11. Sam Houston St (5-1 sthld, 6-2) - 12. William & Mary (4-1 caa, 6-2) - 13. James Madison (4-2 caa, 7-2) - 14. Northern Iowa (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 15. Coastal Carolina (2-1 bgsth, 7-1) - 16. Western Illinois (3-2 mvc, 4-4).
Tier P) 17. Indiana St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 18. The Citadel (5-0 sthrn, 6-2) - 19. Southern Illinois (2-3 mvc, 3-5) - 20. Eastern Kentucky (4-1 ovc, 5-3).
Tier Q) 21. Charleston Southern (4-0 bgsth, 7-1) - 22. Dartmouth (3-1 ivy, 6-1) - 23. Eastern Washington (5-0 bgsky, 6-2) - 24. Eastern Illinois (5-0 ovc, 5-3).
Tier R) 25. Richmond (5-0 caa, 7-1) - 26. Montana (3-2 bgsky, 4-4) - 27. Montana St (2-3 bgsky, 4-4) - 28. Cal Poly SLO (1-4 bgsky, 2-6).
Tier S) Northern Arizona (3-2 bgsky, 5-3); Towson (3-2 caa, 5-3); UT-Martin (4-1 ovc, 5-3); Central Arkansas (5-1 sthld, 6-2); North Carolina A&T (5-0 meac, 7-1); Alcorn St (4-1 swac, 5-2); Fordham (3-1 patr, 7-2); Furman (2-2 sthrn, 4-4).
Tier T) Bethune-Cookman (5-1 meac, 7-2); North Dakota (3.3 bgsky, 5-4); Liberty (1-2 bgsth, 4-4); Villanova (3-2 caa, 4-4); New Hampshire (2-3 caa, 4-4); SE Louisiana (3-3 sthld, 4-4), South Carolina St (4-1 meac, 5-3).
Tier U) Dayton (5-0 pfl, 8-0); Weber St (3-3 bgsky, 4-5); SE Missouri St (2-2 ovc, 3-5); Tennessee St (0-4 ovc, 4-4); Lamar (3-3 sthld, 4-4); Grambling St (6-0 swac, 6-2).
Tier V) Samford (1-4 sthrn, 3-5); Jacksonville (3-2 pfl, 6-2); Penn (3-1 ivy, 4-3); Princeton (2-2 ivy, 5-2); Western Carolina (3-2 sthrn, 5-3).
Tier W) Wofford (2-3 sthrn, 4-5); Stephen F Austin (3-3 sthld, 3-5); Colgate (3-0 patr, 4-4); Elon (2-3 caa, 3-5); Delaware (2-3 caa, 3-5); Stony Brook (1-5 caa, 2-5); Bryant (2-1 nec, 4-4), San Diego (4-1 pfl, 6-2); Yale (1-3 ivy, 4-3).
Tier X) Idaho St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Maine (3-2 caa, 3-5); Mercer (0-4 sthrn, 3-5); NW State (2-4 sthld, 2-6); Abilene Christian (2-5 sthld, 2-6); Lehigh (2-1 patr, 4-4); Holy Cross (1-2 patr, 4-4); Hampton (3-3 meac, 4-5); Prairie View A&M (5-1 swac, 5-2); Southern (4-2 swac, 4-4).
Tier Y) Kennesaw St (2-1 bgsth, 6-2); Northern Colorado (2-4 bgsky, 4-4); Sacramento St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Duquesne (3-1 nec, 6-3); St Francis (2-1 nec, 4-3); Murray St (1-4 ovc, 2-6); Tennessee Tech (1-5 ovc, 2-6); Bucknell (1-2 patr, 4-4); North Carolina Central (4-1 meac, 5-3); Morgan St (3-2 meac, 3-4); Norfolk St (2-3 meac, 2-6), Monmouth (1-3 bgsth, 3-6).
Tier Z) Alabama A&M (2-3 swac, 2-5); Albany (1-4 caa, 2-6); Rhode Island (1-4 caa, 1-7); Sacred Heart (1-2 nec, 4-4); Drake (3-3 pfl, 4-5); Columbia (1-3 ivy, 2-5); Georgetown (2-2 patr, 4-5); Alabama St (4-3 swac, 4-4).
Tier "a" (lowercase) UC Davis (1-4 bgsky, 1-7); Missouri St (0-5 mvc, 1-7); Central Connecticut St (3-1 nec, 4-5); Morehead St (4-1 pfl, 5-3); Marist (3-2 pfl, 4-4), Campbell (3-3 pfl, 5-4); Brown (2-2 ivy, 4-4); Jackson St (3-3 swac, 3-5); Gardner-Webb (2-2 bgsth, 3-5); VMI (1-4 sthrn, 2-7).
Tier "b") Presbyterian (0-3 bgsth, 1-7), Butler (2-3 pfl, 4-4); Howard (1-5 meac, 1-7); Texas Southern (2-4 swac, 3-4); Incarnate Word (3-3 sthld, 4-4)
And, without further ado, the Bottom Sixteen...
Tier "c") 110. Nicholls St (1-5 sthld, 1-7) - 111. Florida A&M (1-4 meac, 1-7) - 112. Austin Peay (0-6 ovc, 0-9).
Tier "d") 113. Lafayette (0-4 patr, 1-8) - 114. Cornell (0-4 ivy, 0-7) - 115. Wagner (0-3 nec, 0-8) - 116. Delaware St (0-5 meac, 0-8).
Tier "e") 117. Robert Morris (1-3 nec, 2-6) - 118. Arkansas Pine Bluff (0-6 swac, 1-7) - 119. Stetson (1-5 pfl, 2-6).
Tier "f") 120. Savannah St (1-4 meac, 1-6) - 121. Houston Baptist (0-6 sthld, 1-7) - 122. East Tennessee St (0-0 sthrn, officially; 1-7 overall) - 123. Mississippi Valley St (0-7 swac, 0-9) - 124. Valparaiso (1-4 pfl, 1-6).
Tier "g") 125. Davidson (0-5 pfl, 1-7).
If you're wondering, when you get towards the bottom, some or most of those out-of-conference wins are against teams in lower divisions - after all, "bottom" is in the eye of the beholder!
Within the Intramural Division, your top three are:
1. Harvard (tier O) - 2. Dartmouth (tier Q) - 3. Fordham (Tier S),
... and your bottom three are:
1. Cornell (tier d) - 2. Lafayette (tier d) - 3. Brown (tier a).
And, within the Historically Black College division, your top three are:
1. North Carolina A&T (tier S) - 2. Alcorn St (tier S) - 3. Bethune Cookman (tier T),
...and your bottom three are:
1. Mississippi Valley St (tier f) - 2. Savannah St (tier f) - 3. Arkansas Pine Bluff (tier e).
In the NFL, following the Broncos' upset of the Packers last night, there's a definitive #1...
Tier A) 1. New England Patriots (7-0) - 2. Cincinnati Bengals (7-0) - 3. Carolina Panthers (6-0) - 4. Denver Broncos (7-0).
Tier B) 5. Green Bay Packers (6-1) - 6. Arizona Cardinals (5-2) - 7. Seattle Seahawks (4-3).
Tier C) 8. St. Louis Rams (4-3) - 9. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) - 10. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) - 11. Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) - 12. Atlanta Falcons (6-2).
Tier D) 13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) - 14. Buffalo Bills (3-4) - 15. Oakland Raiders (4-3).
Tier E) 16. New York Jets (4-3) - 17. Baltimore Ravens (2-6) - 18. San Diego Chargers (2-6) - 19. New Orleans Saints (4-4).
Tier F) 20. Washington Redskins (3-4) - 21. New York Giants (4-4) - 22. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - 23. Dallas Cowboys (2-5) - 24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4).
Tier G) 25. Chicago Bears (2-5) - 26. San Francisco 49ers (2-6) - 27. Houston Texans (3-5) - 28. Cleveland Browns (2-6) - 29. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).
Tier H) 30. Indianapolis Colts (3-4) - 31. Detroit Lions (1-7) - 32. Tennessee Titans (1-6).
And in the FCS, there's just one team in the top tier - the one who took the Auburn Tigers to overtime on the road... (Note that we've combined all 1-AA conferences into this one ranking for a change. We'll single out the others afterwards.) Remember that all these tiers match with the FBS tiers, so in theory a team in Tier L here is equal to a Tier L team on the FBS list, and vice versa. We've ranked the top 28 and the bottom 16; the rest are in random order within their tiers as usual:
Tier L) 1. Jacksonville St (5-0 ovc, 7-1 overall).
Tier M) 2. Illinois St (5-0 mvc, 7-1) - 3. North Dakota St (4-1 mvc, 6-2).
Tier N) 4. Southern Utah (5-0 big sky, 6-2) - 5. Portland St (4-1 bgsky, 7-1) - 6. South Dakota St (3-2 mvc, 6-2).
Tier O) 7. Chattanooga (5-0 sthn, 7-1) - 8. Youngstown St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 9. McNeese St (7-0 sthld, 8-0) - 10. Harvard (4-0 ivy, 7-0) - 11. Sam Houston St (5-1 sthld, 6-2) - 12. William & Mary (4-1 caa, 6-2) - 13. James Madison (4-2 caa, 7-2) - 14. Northern Iowa (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 15. Coastal Carolina (2-1 bgsth, 7-1) - 16. Western Illinois (3-2 mvc, 4-4).
Tier P) 17. Indiana St (2-3 mvc, 4-4) - 18. The Citadel (5-0 sthrn, 6-2) - 19. Southern Illinois (2-3 mvc, 3-5) - 20. Eastern Kentucky (4-1 ovc, 5-3).
Tier Q) 21. Charleston Southern (4-0 bgsth, 7-1) - 22. Dartmouth (3-1 ivy, 6-1) - 23. Eastern Washington (5-0 bgsky, 6-2) - 24. Eastern Illinois (5-0 ovc, 5-3).
Tier R) 25. Richmond (5-0 caa, 7-1) - 26. Montana (3-2 bgsky, 4-4) - 27. Montana St (2-3 bgsky, 4-4) - 28. Cal Poly SLO (1-4 bgsky, 2-6).
Tier S) Northern Arizona (3-2 bgsky, 5-3); Towson (3-2 caa, 5-3); UT-Martin (4-1 ovc, 5-3); Central Arkansas (5-1 sthld, 6-2); North Carolina A&T (5-0 meac, 7-1); Alcorn St (4-1 swac, 5-2); Fordham (3-1 patr, 7-2); Furman (2-2 sthrn, 4-4).
Tier T) Bethune-Cookman (5-1 meac, 7-2); North Dakota (3.3 bgsky, 5-4); Liberty (1-2 bgsth, 4-4); Villanova (3-2 caa, 4-4); New Hampshire (2-3 caa, 4-4); SE Louisiana (3-3 sthld, 4-4), South Carolina St (4-1 meac, 5-3).
Tier U) Dayton (5-0 pfl, 8-0); Weber St (3-3 bgsky, 4-5); SE Missouri St (2-2 ovc, 3-5); Tennessee St (0-4 ovc, 4-4); Lamar (3-3 sthld, 4-4); Grambling St (6-0 swac, 6-2).
Tier V) Samford (1-4 sthrn, 3-5); Jacksonville (3-2 pfl, 6-2); Penn (3-1 ivy, 4-3); Princeton (2-2 ivy, 5-2); Western Carolina (3-2 sthrn, 5-3).
Tier W) Wofford (2-3 sthrn, 4-5); Stephen F Austin (3-3 sthld, 3-5); Colgate (3-0 patr, 4-4); Elon (2-3 caa, 3-5); Delaware (2-3 caa, 3-5); Stony Brook (1-5 caa, 2-5); Bryant (2-1 nec, 4-4), San Diego (4-1 pfl, 6-2); Yale (1-3 ivy, 4-3).
Tier X) Idaho St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Maine (3-2 caa, 3-5); Mercer (0-4 sthrn, 3-5); NW State (2-4 sthld, 2-6); Abilene Christian (2-5 sthld, 2-6); Lehigh (2-1 patr, 4-4); Holy Cross (1-2 patr, 4-4); Hampton (3-3 meac, 4-5); Prairie View A&M (5-1 swac, 5-2); Southern (4-2 swac, 4-4).
Tier Y) Kennesaw St (2-1 bgsth, 6-2); Northern Colorado (2-4 bgsky, 4-4); Sacramento St (1-4 bgsky, 2-6); Duquesne (3-1 nec, 6-3); St Francis (2-1 nec, 4-3); Murray St (1-4 ovc, 2-6); Tennessee Tech (1-5 ovc, 2-6); Bucknell (1-2 patr, 4-4); North Carolina Central (4-1 meac, 5-3); Morgan St (3-2 meac, 3-4); Norfolk St (2-3 meac, 2-6), Monmouth (1-3 bgsth, 3-6).
Tier Z) Alabama A&M (2-3 swac, 2-5); Albany (1-4 caa, 2-6); Rhode Island (1-4 caa, 1-7); Sacred Heart (1-2 nec, 4-4); Drake (3-3 pfl, 4-5); Columbia (1-3 ivy, 2-5); Georgetown (2-2 patr, 4-5); Alabama St (4-3 swac, 4-4).
Tier "a" (lowercase) UC Davis (1-4 bgsky, 1-7); Missouri St (0-5 mvc, 1-7); Central Connecticut St (3-1 nec, 4-5); Morehead St (4-1 pfl, 5-3); Marist (3-2 pfl, 4-4), Campbell (3-3 pfl, 5-4); Brown (2-2 ivy, 4-4); Jackson St (3-3 swac, 3-5); Gardner-Webb (2-2 bgsth, 3-5); VMI (1-4 sthrn, 2-7).
Tier "b") Presbyterian (0-3 bgsth, 1-7), Butler (2-3 pfl, 4-4); Howard (1-5 meac, 1-7); Texas Southern (2-4 swac, 3-4); Incarnate Word (3-3 sthld, 4-4)
And, without further ado, the Bottom Sixteen...
Tier "c") 110. Nicholls St (1-5 sthld, 1-7) - 111. Florida A&M (1-4 meac, 1-7) - 112. Austin Peay (0-6 ovc, 0-9).
Tier "d") 113. Lafayette (0-4 patr, 1-8) - 114. Cornell (0-4 ivy, 0-7) - 115. Wagner (0-3 nec, 0-8) - 116. Delaware St (0-5 meac, 0-8).
Tier "e") 117. Robert Morris (1-3 nec, 2-6) - 118. Arkansas Pine Bluff (0-6 swac, 1-7) - 119. Stetson (1-5 pfl, 2-6).
Tier "f") 120. Savannah St (1-4 meac, 1-6) - 121. Houston Baptist (0-6 sthld, 1-7) - 122. East Tennessee St (0-0 sthrn, officially; 1-7 overall) - 123. Mississippi Valley St (0-7 swac, 0-9) - 124. Valparaiso (1-4 pfl, 1-6).
Tier "g") 125. Davidson (0-5 pfl, 1-7).
If you're wondering, when you get towards the bottom, some or most of those out-of-conference wins are against teams in lower divisions - after all, "bottom" is in the eye of the beholder!
Within the Intramural Division, your top three are:
1. Harvard (tier O) - 2. Dartmouth (tier Q) - 3. Fordham (Tier S),
... and your bottom three are:
1. Cornell (tier d) - 2. Lafayette (tier d) - 3. Brown (tier a).
And, within the Historically Black College division, your top three are:
1. North Carolina A&T (tier S) - 2. Alcorn St (tier S) - 3. Bethune Cookman (tier T),
...and your bottom three are:
1. Mississippi Valley St (tier f) - 2. Savannah St (tier f) - 3. Arkansas Pine Bluff (tier e).
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for the Last Week of October!
Yes, we've been negligent in our UPS and DOWNS this month, so let's see if we can make it up to you today with a BIG long list!
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
UP to the FIVE UNDEFEATED teams still left in the NFL at Hallow'een! I've heard different dates, but it's been many, many years since we've had five 6-0 teams - Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Carolina, and New England. They're certainly deserving of their hallowed spots - New England and Green Bay were the consensus picks for Super Bowl combatants; Cincinnati's been tested repeatedly and looks better than any previous year in the Dalton era; and Cam Newton and that Carolina defense are doing just as well as Peyton Manning and that amazing Bronco defense! (Rephrase that: Cam's doing more that the legend, but the Denver D has been more impressive by far than any in the league.)
DOWN to the MOST DISAPPOINTING teams in the NFL this season... Baltimore fell to 1-6 last night, although a valiant effort to come back against a strong Arizona club fell short in the end zone. They've been within a score in every one of their games, and the Harbaugh coaching line will keep them competitive...but as for their own playoff hopes? Six losses is probably already as many as they can afford, and they're not going 9-0 the rest of the way. Seattle? Too early to say. Yes, they've lost more than expected, but they looked good against the Niners Thursday night. Can you call Chicago, Tampa, Tennessee, or Jacksonville "disappointing" if you weren't expecting anything from them? I think not. Certainly Detroit belongs on that list...
UP to the GREATEST NAME in modern football! Yesterday, in an effort to rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic, the Lions reneged on their promise not to change any coaches and changed coaches, firing the OC and replacing him with....wait for it...Jim Bob Cooter, a man who not only has the greatest name in the the business, but also a creative criminal record to boot: while he was at Tennessee several years ago, he was convicted of "aggravated assault" because he went into a woman's home, stripped down to his underwear, and climbed in bed with her. Had it been his wife, no worries. However, she didn't know him....OOPS! A promising move for Detroit.
DOWN to the MIAMI HURRICANE fans and alumni... who deserve whatever terrible coach they receive now that they've singlehandedly forced the ouster of Al Golden as their football coach. Certainly, the AD had no choice after the 58-0 debacle against Clemson, and even if you want to admit that the players seemed to play without interest, the firing only became necessary because the overzealous "fans" (remember, the word is short for "fanatic") demanded it. NOW...put yourself in the place of a prospective coach. Do you want to coach at Miami, having seen what they did to your predecessor? Miami was still 4-3, you know - not a bad season, although admittedly not national championship contenders. The expectations for a mid-level ACC program - and make no mistake: with the facility issues they have there, it IS a mid-level program! - are way overboard. If the poor fellow who takes the job ends his first four seasons has the same 32-25 record Golden did, I'll be impressed. And surprised.
UP to the DEPENDABILITY of the BOTTOM FEEDERS! As a phootball prophet of the lowest order, I depend on the reliability of the teams I work with in order to phorcast the outcomes of the games they play. We've seen an amazing array of turnabouts this year - for example, we expected Michigan to beat Michigan St, and they did...for the first 59:55 of the game, pre-punt. We thought Florida St would win over my son's beloved Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech...until a field goal block returned for a game winner changed that outcome. We've seen ridiculous outcomes across the board - games I was absolutely SURE about came out the other way. AND YET, the one constant that keeps us above .500, above the line of sheer guess work? Well, it's the bottom feeder teams - the Savannah States, the Davidsons, the Missouri States, the New Mexico States, the Charlottes and Eastern Michigans, the Kansases of the world, that remind us that the sun will come up tomorrow in the east, set in the west, and repeat again and again. Knowing that Savannah will go to Stillwater and lose by eighty...knowing that one more Davidson Wildcat loss may be the one that pushes its Sagarin rating into negative numbers, knowing that the MVC is made up of nine amazing FCS teams...and Missouri State. That's what makes a prognosticator look smart!
DOWN to the GREG HARDY situation... I hate to say this, because it'll sound terrible...but I hope there's something medically or psychologically wrong with the Dallas Cowboys' two-game veteran defensive lineman Greg Hardy. If not, it means he's simply a complete a-hole, a jerk of gargantuan proportions. To barge into the special teams huddle (of which you have NO business being in at ALL, not being on special teams) and literally assault the ST coach is, by most standards of business practice, grounds for firing on its own, To then continue the infantile behavior with Dez Bryant (THERE's irony - Dez is the voice of reason?) and in the farcical press conference (no comment next question - wait for the question, meathead!) would be adequate grounds to be removed from the league, as no team would want you representing them in a pig-calling contest, much less in front of cameras ever again. But the real piece d'resistance, in my opinion, is his team's owner, the brilliant Jerry Jones, not only excusing his behavior (for which his coach, Jason Garrett, will not punish him at all), but praising his behavior as the kind of passion that they want their leaders to show! Congratulations, Dallas! You just sunk to number 33 on the list of my favorite NFL teams! (And yes, I realize there are only 32 teams. #32 on my list right now is being forced to watch highlights of the Chuck Pagano Special Teams Instructional video on permanent replay...)
DOWN to the idiots who would use the anonymity of Twitter and other social media to threaten athletes (AND their FAMILIES!) in ways they would never have the juevos to do in person. Without going into details, the fanatics who called out the poor Michigan punter following his dropped ball at the end of the Michigan State game were bad enough...the ones insulting the Dallas punt returner after his gaffe Sunday night were just as bad, although at least he's a professional athlete and "signed up" for the criticism. But the morons who went after his wife? What the heck? How do you figure she had anything to do with the dropped punt? Would they have gotten in her face had they met in the stadium? ...Wait a minute...maybe they would have. Didn't Giselle Brady have to deal with that after the Patriots lost a Super Bowl once? ...Sigh. It's amazing we ever evolved far enough as a species to come down from the trees. Apparently, we still fling our feces at each other for fun...
UP TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG! Seriously, there's no profit margin or income of any sort involved in this project. It's simply a chance to continue a passion for football and the unpredictability of its outcomes, something my late wife and I started a few years ago on Facebook and then moved over to the blogosphere one year ago this month. To everyone who's ever read our work, which is now just my work, unfortunately... Thank you.
Thursday, October 8, 2015
Thursday Thoughts - Braindroppings
Today, we want to jump all over the landscape and ask a ton of questions, point out a ton of interesting thoughts, and...well, if George Carlin were still around, he'd call these "Braindroppings"! So, here goes!
What makes a team a dynasty? Three titles in a row, like Hawthorn just achieved in the AFL? Does five in fifteen years count, like the NBA's San Antonio Spurs? What about the Patriots, who've won four and been to seven Super Bowls in the Belechick/Brady era (about fourteen years)? Certainly the 1950s-60s Boston Celtics count - they're the very definition of a dynasty! Eight in a row, eleven in thirteen years...but which of those is more important? Is winning over a long period of time, even if you missed a couple in between, "better" than the string over three or four years? What do you think?
Concussion protocols...without question, better than it's been in previous years, when you could convince your coach you were good to go play even when the other team seems to have twice as many players as they legally should have. But please, footy, football, every other kind of real contact sport - don't assume the problem's fixed! The iffy nature of concussions to begin with makes dealing with them nebulous in the best of times, and as we learn more and more about how much time it actually takes to recover from the hit, we have to change how we deal with it. Opinion?
Specials... which is what many coaches call "trick plays". Washington pulled a good one last night, a double pass which scored their first touchdown and led to an upset of USC in LA. SC State had a great one that I first saw the Rams pull on Seattle last year, where you have a punt returner fake like he's getting the punt, when in reality it's the guy on the opposite sideline who's catching the ball and (in last night's game) scoring a touchdown on the runback! (Bethune-Cookman won anyway, however, in a game which may have decided the MEAC.) So, the question that bugs some people is this - are "specials" basically cheating? If you can't win playing "correctly" (or "like men", if you want to really get machismo on this), you have to "resort to trick plays" to try to "cheat" your way to victory! My response - first of all, the plays are legal, so it's not cheating. Second of all, it's the brain versus brawn argument, and football has room for both. If you're okay with a team using the forward pass to win, which many in the early days of the AAFC and NFL weren't for the same reason (c'mon! Be a man and run at me!), you really can't complain about the double pass, or any other "trickeration", as our idol Chris Petersen would say. Petersen, of course, was the one who called the double pass that beat USC last night, and famously brought the house down in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a host of trick plays at the end of the game to pull out the Boise State victory over vaunted Oklahoma. What most people forget is that, until a great OU drive and a brainfade interception, Boise had OU soundly beaten (28-10, late in the third) with old-fashioned, hard-nosed, "my linemen are better than yours" football. You've gotta have the guys who can pull it off, too. Your thoughts?
Speaking of Boise v Oklahoma, the perpetual argument over whether a school from outside the Power Five conferences should ever play for a national championship rages, and will continue to until one gets in and then wins the tournament. The CFP folks threw the Group of Five conferences a nice bone by guaranteeing their best team a spot in the high-paying bowl games in the New Year's Six, which is more than they've had. But what if (to choose a team besides Boise, our personal favorite!) Temple or Toledo, both of whom look spectacular this year, goes undefeated in 2015, looks phenomenal in doing so, and two of the power conferences fail to produce any team the committee feels is worthy of a playoff bid? Who's to say that an undefeated Temple isn't a better choice than, say, a three-loss Florida State? What would be wrong with that? Think back to that 2007 Fiesta Bowl, which some say was the best game of all time (as much as I love Boise St, I'd go with USC/Texas in the BCS title game the year Vince Young won it for the Longhorns). Utah had been the first "mid-major" to qualify for a big bowl, but they played a five-loss Pitt team from a pathetic Big East, won, and proved nothing. Boise was the first mid-major to play in the spotlight against a top ten team - and not just any, but 7-time national champion Oklahoma, Big 12 champs, one loss, Adrian Peterson at RB. Somehow the screwed up rankings had BSU #7 and OU #9, but the Sooners were absurd betting favorites - David and Goliath was referenced multiple times in the intro. BSU dominated the game, and if it weren't for a Bronco punt coverage mistake late in the 3rd, Oklahoma was ready to give up. In fact, over the span of games that mid-major teams played in BCS bowl games, their record was 5-2. (And one of those losses was to another mid-major, when they pitted TCU and BSU against each other the year they both qualified. The other was Hawaii's debacle loss to Georgia, proving there's an exception to every rule.) Why can't a Boise St, a Houston, a Memphis, a Toledo, a Temple, a Navy, a Northern Illinois play for the title?
Bodybag games...New Mexico State is getting about a million dollars towards balancing its athletic budget ($4.4 M over, last year) to go to the University of Mississippi and be a forty-three point underdog to a top-notch SEC team. Basically, they're being paid to be the Washington Generals. Remember the Generals? The Globetrotters' perpetual opponents? Name anything about them besides that. Thought so... Ole Miss wants a week off from the gauntlet of the SEC, wants to fill their stadium, give their fans a "guaranteed win" (as LSU will tell you about Jacksonville St, "no such thing"!), and is giving about a one-seventh share of the profits to the opponent for the privilege of being beaten badly. Some teams are notorious for needing these games to stay afloat - Following Football's favorite team, the MEAC's punching bag Savannah State, played Oklahoma St and Florida St in consecutive weeks two years ago, lost the first one 88-0, and would've lost the second to the national champs by worse if they hadn't gone to a running clock in the second half to finish early and avoid a storm coming in. Up here in the Northwest, I always pity the Idaho Vandals, who moved to the big-time because Boise St did, but in little Moscow, Idaho, they don't have the fan base or the resources to afford the lifestyle of an FBS football program. So instead of being the top-notch FCS program they were for decades, rivals with the Montanas of the realm, they're stuck as a bottom-feeder in the lowly Sun Belt conference, taking two payday games a year (this year at USC and Auburn) to financially survive another one-win season. Where's the shame in moving to FCS before your entire program disbands (see UAB)? Why don't schools like NMSU, Idaho, and several others improve both their bottom line AND their competitive results and return to the FCS where their school setting suggests they should be anyway? Your thoughts?
What makes a team a dynasty? Three titles in a row, like Hawthorn just achieved in the AFL? Does five in fifteen years count, like the NBA's San Antonio Spurs? What about the Patriots, who've won four and been to seven Super Bowls in the Belechick/Brady era (about fourteen years)? Certainly the 1950s-60s Boston Celtics count - they're the very definition of a dynasty! Eight in a row, eleven in thirteen years...but which of those is more important? Is winning over a long period of time, even if you missed a couple in between, "better" than the string over three or four years? What do you think?
Concussion protocols...without question, better than it's been in previous years, when you could convince your coach you were good to go play even when the other team seems to have twice as many players as they legally should have. But please, footy, football, every other kind of real contact sport - don't assume the problem's fixed! The iffy nature of concussions to begin with makes dealing with them nebulous in the best of times, and as we learn more and more about how much time it actually takes to recover from the hit, we have to change how we deal with it. Opinion?
Specials... which is what many coaches call "trick plays". Washington pulled a good one last night, a double pass which scored their first touchdown and led to an upset of USC in LA. SC State had a great one that I first saw the Rams pull on Seattle last year, where you have a punt returner fake like he's getting the punt, when in reality it's the guy on the opposite sideline who's catching the ball and (in last night's game) scoring a touchdown on the runback! (Bethune-Cookman won anyway, however, in a game which may have decided the MEAC.) So, the question that bugs some people is this - are "specials" basically cheating? If you can't win playing "correctly" (or "like men", if you want to really get machismo on this), you have to "resort to trick plays" to try to "cheat" your way to victory! My response - first of all, the plays are legal, so it's not cheating. Second of all, it's the brain versus brawn argument, and football has room for both. If you're okay with a team using the forward pass to win, which many in the early days of the AAFC and NFL weren't for the same reason (c'mon! Be a man and run at me!), you really can't complain about the double pass, or any other "trickeration", as our idol Chris Petersen would say. Petersen, of course, was the one who called the double pass that beat USC last night, and famously brought the house down in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with a host of trick plays at the end of the game to pull out the Boise State victory over vaunted Oklahoma. What most people forget is that, until a great OU drive and a brainfade interception, Boise had OU soundly beaten (28-10, late in the third) with old-fashioned, hard-nosed, "my linemen are better than yours" football. You've gotta have the guys who can pull it off, too. Your thoughts?
Speaking of Boise v Oklahoma, the perpetual argument over whether a school from outside the Power Five conferences should ever play for a national championship rages, and will continue to until one gets in and then wins the tournament. The CFP folks threw the Group of Five conferences a nice bone by guaranteeing their best team a spot in the high-paying bowl games in the New Year's Six, which is more than they've had. But what if (to choose a team besides Boise, our personal favorite!) Temple or Toledo, both of whom look spectacular this year, goes undefeated in 2015, looks phenomenal in doing so, and two of the power conferences fail to produce any team the committee feels is worthy of a playoff bid? Who's to say that an undefeated Temple isn't a better choice than, say, a three-loss Florida State? What would be wrong with that? Think back to that 2007 Fiesta Bowl, which some say was the best game of all time (as much as I love Boise St, I'd go with USC/Texas in the BCS title game the year Vince Young won it for the Longhorns). Utah had been the first "mid-major" to qualify for a big bowl, but they played a five-loss Pitt team from a pathetic Big East, won, and proved nothing. Boise was the first mid-major to play in the spotlight against a top ten team - and not just any, but 7-time national champion Oklahoma, Big 12 champs, one loss, Adrian Peterson at RB. Somehow the screwed up rankings had BSU #7 and OU #9, but the Sooners were absurd betting favorites - David and Goliath was referenced multiple times in the intro. BSU dominated the game, and if it weren't for a Bronco punt coverage mistake late in the 3rd, Oklahoma was ready to give up. In fact, over the span of games that mid-major teams played in BCS bowl games, their record was 5-2. (And one of those losses was to another mid-major, when they pitted TCU and BSU against each other the year they both qualified. The other was Hawaii's debacle loss to Georgia, proving there's an exception to every rule.) Why can't a Boise St, a Houston, a Memphis, a Toledo, a Temple, a Navy, a Northern Illinois play for the title?
Bodybag games...New Mexico State is getting about a million dollars towards balancing its athletic budget ($4.4 M over, last year) to go to the University of Mississippi and be a forty-three point underdog to a top-notch SEC team. Basically, they're being paid to be the Washington Generals. Remember the Generals? The Globetrotters' perpetual opponents? Name anything about them besides that. Thought so... Ole Miss wants a week off from the gauntlet of the SEC, wants to fill their stadium, give their fans a "guaranteed win" (as LSU will tell you about Jacksonville St, "no such thing"!), and is giving about a one-seventh share of the profits to the opponent for the privilege of being beaten badly. Some teams are notorious for needing these games to stay afloat - Following Football's favorite team, the MEAC's punching bag Savannah State, played Oklahoma St and Florida St in consecutive weeks two years ago, lost the first one 88-0, and would've lost the second to the national champs by worse if they hadn't gone to a running clock in the second half to finish early and avoid a storm coming in. Up here in the Northwest, I always pity the Idaho Vandals, who moved to the big-time because Boise St did, but in little Moscow, Idaho, they don't have the fan base or the resources to afford the lifestyle of an FBS football program. So instead of being the top-notch FCS program they were for decades, rivals with the Montanas of the realm, they're stuck as a bottom-feeder in the lowly Sun Belt conference, taking two payday games a year (this year at USC and Auburn) to financially survive another one-win season. Where's the shame in moving to FCS before your entire program disbands (see UAB)? Why don't schools like NMSU, Idaho, and several others improve both their bottom line AND their competitive results and return to the FCS where their school setting suggests they should be anyway? Your thoughts?
Sunday, September 13, 2015
QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!
It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
So, here are our division projections:
AFC)
EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.
NFC)
EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.
4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)
PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.
AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.
AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.
SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
UPS AND DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 2
Welcome to Following Football 2.0 - updated format, updated focus, better prepared to service you, the eclectic football fan! UP FIRST, most appropriately, our Tuesday column stretching across three countries and four versions of the sport... UPS AND DOWNS for the second week of August, 2015!
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Optimism is such a wonderful thing!
ESPN asked each of its bloggers assigned to each of the 32 teams in the NFL to predict their team's record, independently of the other 31 bloggers.
They did so.
The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.
Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.
That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting?
So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:
NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11.
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)
They did so.
The records, as they sit, seem pretty reasonable...until you add them up.
Somehow, there will be fifty more wins than losses this year.
That's right: the NFL as a whole will go 281-231, apparently playing FCS schools like the Power Five do to puff up their records! Won't that be interesting?
So, here's the record synopsis. If you want to be closer to reality, subtract one win (technically, 25/32 of a win, just under .8) from each team and add it to the loss column:
NFC East: Dallas 11-5; Philly 10-6; NYG 8-8; Washington 6-10.
NFC North: GB 11-5; Minnesota 9-7; Detroit 8-8; Chicago 7-9.
NFC South: Carolina 10-6; NO Saints 10-6; Atlanta 8-8; Tampa 8-8. (This is my favorite! I think you can subtract all 25 wins from these teams and be more accurate. Remember, the Panthers won the division at 7-9 last year!)
NFC West: Seattle 11-5; Arizona 9-7; St. Louis 8-8; SF 7-9. (On the other hand, this may be about right!)
AFC East:New England 11-5 (but then again,that may be inflated!); Miami 9-7; Buffalo 9-7; NY Jets 8-8. (Hard to picture THIS division all at .500 or above, either!)
AFC North: Cincinnati 10-6; Pittsburgh 9-7; Baltimore 9-7; Cleveland 4-12.
AFC South: Indy 13-3; Houston 10-6; Jax 7-9; Tennessee 5-11.
AFC West: Denver 13-3; KC 9-7; SD 8-8; Oakland 6-10. Bring Denver and Indy down a game or two, and those are all about right!)
Monday, June 8, 2015
Another felon released in the NFL
Brandon Spikes was released by the Patriots today after his damaged car was found abandoned on I-495 in Foxborough a day earlier. Last week, the Chicago Bears released Ray McDonald after the latest of his domestic assault and dog attacks and other abuse and violent behaviors. No team seems to have the slightest interest in signing the talented McDonald, either.
What's the NFL coming to when you can't play in the league just because you're a certified felon with a large and recent history of unsafe behavior and no sign of changing?
(Good on ya, NFL!)
What's the NFL coming to when you can't play in the league just because you're a certified felon with a large and recent history of unsafe behavior and no sign of changing?
(Good on ya, NFL!)
Friday, May 8, 2015
The DeflateGate report is out.
And it doesn't look good for Tom Brady.
The NFL's report, which took four months to complete, determined that three people in the New England Patriots organization "more probably than not" knew and/or took part in the efforts to lower the pressure in the Patriots' game footballs so as to make it more to the starting quarterback's liking: equipment assistant John Jastremski, locker room attendant Jim McNally, and quarterback Tom Brady himself.
Beyond the physical data verifying that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game were indeed significantly below the NFL-required pressure, it also provides enough circumstantial evidence that makes it "more likely than not" that it was not only a deliberate act on the part of Jastremski and McNally (and at the very least tacitly condoned by Brady; more likely suggested by Brady), but that it was a pattern of behavior stretching back well into the regular season, based on such things as text messages between the two employees that certainly appear to confirm that they did exactly that throughout the season, specifically for Brady, who provided them with game paraphernalia as thank you's for doing so.
To clarify, Brady went to great lengths in the week following the original expose' to explain that yes, he much preferred the balls to be inflated "to the lower end of the legal range" of 12.5 to 13.5 psi, because it gives him a better grip on the ball, a better feel for it in cold weather, and allows his receivers to catch the ball more easily. To top that off, it was Brady himself who led the campaign to change the NFL policy on this very subject in 2007, creating the bizarre rule that each team should be in charge of its own footballs that it uses on offense, rather than the conventional notion that the neutral NFL would have control over the equipment used in the game.
(By the way, if the NFL hasn't changed that policy by August's first pre-season game, they should shut the place down.)
So, yeah, Tom Brady LOVES his footballs to have pressure as low as he can get away with in the footballs he throws.
Is there ANY way that a rational human being can conceive of a situation where an assistant equipment man and a part-time locker room attendant would contrive to illegally lower the pressure in the game balls WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE OR APPROVAL OF THE MAN WHO HANDLES THEM FOR A LIVING?
Interestingly, the report exonerates head coach Bill Belechick and ALL other Patriots players, coaches, and employees. The culture under Belechick has notoriously been to stretch the rules to the point of complete malleability, and sometimes beyond it (see: "Spygate", "Snowplow on the Field") to win football games.
But this time, it isn't specifically Belechick who's at fault.
It's the win at all costs culture he created.
I understand that the commissioner has no credibility AT ALL on the subject of appropriate suspensions. (See: Rice, Ray, takes one and two.) And I understand that while this affects the validity of the very sport his job depends on, it should NOT demand a penalty as harsh as the one for the scandal in which players' very health and well-being were compromised by bonuses being given for injuring them (i.e., the New Orleans Saints' "Bountygate" scandal - do we HAVE to use the suffix -gate on EVERYTHING?).
But the penalty seems pretty clear to me, within a range:
- Fire the two employees immediately, with a show-cause for working in the NFL for the next five-ten years. They have no reason to still be attached to the NFL.
- Whatever the Spygate draft/money penalty was, assess something between that amount again to double that amount. This is worse, but of the same magnitude.
- Tom Brady needs a significant suspension. Four to eight games seems appropriate to me - less than the season long suspension Saints head coach Sean Payton suffered, but more than a slap on the wrist. Ben Roethlisberger served six for "circumstantial evidence"-proven crimes off the field; this was less damaging to individuals but more damaging to the sanctity of the fairness of the product the NFL produces. Six games seems appropriate.
- Does it change the outcome of Super Bowl 49? Logistically, I have to say no. But it sure puts an asterisk on it in the minds of a loooooooot of people, including me.
This damages Brady's entire reputation in a way that a steroid scandal does to other players. It puts an asterisk on the 2014 season and Brady's passing numbers for a minimum of last year. Does it keep him out of the Hall of Fame? Probably not, but it's worth asking the question. Brady's interviews following the exposition of the evidence after the Colts game have been proven to be what they felt like at the time - lies, fabricated hastily and imperfectly, surrounding enough of his honesty about why he would want deflated balls to explain his actions in the case. And in particular, for a player whose good looks and aw, shucks image was crafted on his appearance of being a down-home guy who was exactly what he appeared to be, this is a whole set of nails in the coffin of that image. We will never see Tommy in that light again.
Even Bill Belechick will take a small hit - oh, sure, he was acquitted. And he was never the good ol' boy that Brady was, anyway. But it's yet another strike on the culture he created at Foxboro, that win-at-all-cost mode of operation that made the Patriots the villains of the NFL. It's one thing to be the rebels, like the Oakland Raiders were (and still would be, except that they're an afterthought as a hollow (art) shell of a team). It's quite another to be the outlaw. Expect a LOT more scrutiny, New England. Walk far away from that line, because you're going to be judged more harshly than ANYONE else in 2015, whether fair or not.
And the saddest thing is this - like Alex Rodriguez, like Barry Bonds, like Lance Armstrong - the Patriots were going to be good without all of the cheating. But their insecurity forced them into playing beyond the rules, to playing with an ace up the sleeve, because the full house they already had might not be quite good enough.
And it cost them more than the pot. It cost them their reputations as men.
The NFL's report, which took four months to complete, determined that three people in the New England Patriots organization "more probably than not" knew and/or took part in the efforts to lower the pressure in the Patriots' game footballs so as to make it more to the starting quarterback's liking: equipment assistant John Jastremski, locker room attendant Jim McNally, and quarterback Tom Brady himself.
Beyond the physical data verifying that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game were indeed significantly below the NFL-required pressure, it also provides enough circumstantial evidence that makes it "more likely than not" that it was not only a deliberate act on the part of Jastremski and McNally (and at the very least tacitly condoned by Brady; more likely suggested by Brady), but that it was a pattern of behavior stretching back well into the regular season, based on such things as text messages between the two employees that certainly appear to confirm that they did exactly that throughout the season, specifically for Brady, who provided them with game paraphernalia as thank you's for doing so.
To clarify, Brady went to great lengths in the week following the original expose' to explain that yes, he much preferred the balls to be inflated "to the lower end of the legal range" of 12.5 to 13.5 psi, because it gives him a better grip on the ball, a better feel for it in cold weather, and allows his receivers to catch the ball more easily. To top that off, it was Brady himself who led the campaign to change the NFL policy on this very subject in 2007, creating the bizarre rule that each team should be in charge of its own footballs that it uses on offense, rather than the conventional notion that the neutral NFL would have control over the equipment used in the game.
(By the way, if the NFL hasn't changed that policy by August's first pre-season game, they should shut the place down.)
So, yeah, Tom Brady LOVES his footballs to have pressure as low as he can get away with in the footballs he throws.
Is there ANY way that a rational human being can conceive of a situation where an assistant equipment man and a part-time locker room attendant would contrive to illegally lower the pressure in the game balls WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE OR APPROVAL OF THE MAN WHO HANDLES THEM FOR A LIVING?
Interestingly, the report exonerates head coach Bill Belechick and ALL other Patriots players, coaches, and employees. The culture under Belechick has notoriously been to stretch the rules to the point of complete malleability, and sometimes beyond it (see: "Spygate", "Snowplow on the Field") to win football games.
But this time, it isn't specifically Belechick who's at fault.
It's the win at all costs culture he created.
I understand that the commissioner has no credibility AT ALL on the subject of appropriate suspensions. (See: Rice, Ray, takes one and two.) And I understand that while this affects the validity of the very sport his job depends on, it should NOT demand a penalty as harsh as the one for the scandal in which players' very health and well-being were compromised by bonuses being given for injuring them (i.e., the New Orleans Saints' "Bountygate" scandal - do we HAVE to use the suffix -gate on EVERYTHING?).
But the penalty seems pretty clear to me, within a range:
- Fire the two employees immediately, with a show-cause for working in the NFL for the next five-ten years. They have no reason to still be attached to the NFL.
- Whatever the Spygate draft/money penalty was, assess something between that amount again to double that amount. This is worse, but of the same magnitude.
- Tom Brady needs a significant suspension. Four to eight games seems appropriate to me - less than the season long suspension Saints head coach Sean Payton suffered, but more than a slap on the wrist. Ben Roethlisberger served six for "circumstantial evidence"-proven crimes off the field; this was less damaging to individuals but more damaging to the sanctity of the fairness of the product the NFL produces. Six games seems appropriate.
- Does it change the outcome of Super Bowl 49? Logistically, I have to say no. But it sure puts an asterisk on it in the minds of a loooooooot of people, including me.
This damages Brady's entire reputation in a way that a steroid scandal does to other players. It puts an asterisk on the 2014 season and Brady's passing numbers for a minimum of last year. Does it keep him out of the Hall of Fame? Probably not, but it's worth asking the question. Brady's interviews following the exposition of the evidence after the Colts game have been proven to be what they felt like at the time - lies, fabricated hastily and imperfectly, surrounding enough of his honesty about why he would want deflated balls to explain his actions in the case. And in particular, for a player whose good looks and aw, shucks image was crafted on his appearance of being a down-home guy who was exactly what he appeared to be, this is a whole set of nails in the coffin of that image. We will never see Tommy in that light again.
Even Bill Belechick will take a small hit - oh, sure, he was acquitted. And he was never the good ol' boy that Brady was, anyway. But it's yet another strike on the culture he created at Foxboro, that win-at-all-cost mode of operation that made the Patriots the villains of the NFL. It's one thing to be the rebels, like the Oakland Raiders were (and still would be, except that they're an afterthought as a hollow (art) shell of a team). It's quite another to be the outlaw. Expect a LOT more scrutiny, New England. Walk far away from that line, because you're going to be judged more harshly than ANYONE else in 2015, whether fair or not.
And the saddest thing is this - like Alex Rodriguez, like Barry Bonds, like Lance Armstrong - the Patriots were going to be good without all of the cheating. But their insecurity forced them into playing beyond the rules, to playing with an ace up the sleeve, because the full house they already had might not be quite good enough.
And it cost them more than the pot. It cost them their reputations as men.
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Why is the NFL schedule release such a big deal?
The answer, or at least the obvious answer, is that everything about the NFL is a big deal. Well covered by Peter King of MMQB and SI.com, the release of the 2015 schedule this morning was presented like the Camp David accords - a document of great import and interest, fundamentally altering the landscape of the universe - when it's just a flipp'n schedule! We already knew who was playing who and where: that's set the moment the previous season ends, by formula. So when teams play each other isn't really all that important... is it? Regardless of its importance, here's the full schedule, starting with Pittsburgh at New England on Thursday evening, September 10th.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Football League schedule has been released as well, and it's chock full of repeated games in a league with nine teams and twenty rounds. The opener of the regular season hits on Thursday, June 25th, where the Ottawa RedBlacks are given a chance to (temporarily) lead the entire league if they can win at the Montreal Alouettes. The championship game, the Grey Cup, will be played on Sunday, November 29th.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Football League schedule has been released as well, and it's chock full of repeated games in a league with nine teams and twenty rounds. The opener of the regular season hits on Thursday, June 25th, where the Ottawa RedBlacks are given a chance to (temporarily) lead the entire league if they can win at the Montreal Alouettes. The championship game, the Grey Cup, will be played on Sunday, November 29th.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Here's an array of (American) football topics on the front burner this morning...
The big story, of course, is that New England's former star receiver Aaron Hernandez has been found GUILTY in the murder of his associate Odin Lloyd by a jury of twelve. 130 witnesses took the stand in one of the most well-assembled cases in high-profile history (as OJ Simpson followers would agree). The verdict carries an automatic life without parole sentence, which makes all the other charges, well, kinda moot.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
In the world of normal football kind of stuff...Pete Thamel of SI.com has a great interview with Ohio State guru Urban Meyer on their QB situation and much more...The rumors about San Diego trading Philip Rivers for, essentially, Marcus Mariota are discussed by MMQB icon Peter King...The Detroit Lions' front seven keeps adjusting, as now they're sending George Johnson back to Tampa Bay....and finally, shocker-of-shockers, the Cleveland Browns players are saying yeah, they noticed that Johnny Football/Manziel didn't seem to be too focused on his actual profession last year, so rehab wasn't a huge surprise. How anyone can be surprised by Manziel's struggles on and off the field is what would shock me. The kid had trouble stamped all over him, and if it hadn't been that Cleveland desperately needed to take a chance in order to try hitting a home run, drafting would've made no sense at all. It was a risk - probably not worth a first round draft choice, but then, go big if you want to get big, I suppose.
I wouldn't have done it.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!
We don't even know where to start.
St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?
New Orleans having a fire sale?
San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?
The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).
Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)
And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?
I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming.
When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.
(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)
Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...
St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?
New Orleans having a fire sale?
San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?
The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).
Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)
And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?
I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming.
When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.
(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)
Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
IF you have an interest in murder trials...
...here's a link to the Aaron Hernandez trial in Massachusetts. (Hernandez is the former New England Patriot charged with murder.)
Saturday, February 7, 2015
A few last thoughts on a SUPER championship game last Sunday..
...before we move on to the Australian Footy season and the off-season, 12-month-per-year business that IS the NFL in the 21st century:
It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.
Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.
The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...
Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)
And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are!
It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.
Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.
The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...
Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)
And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are!
Monday, February 2, 2015
Upon further review, I disagree with the world.
Ian O'Connor's piece this morning in ESPN sums up the consensus opinion of the sports world on the play call heard 'round the world, that Pete Carroll had the intelligence of a vegetable to call a pass play on the one yard line with thirty seconds to go in the Super Bowl when he had Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch available in the backfield. However, I argue that it was a perfectly acceptable call, and had it worked (or even just fallen incomplete) even a brilliant call under the circumstances. Bill Barnwell articulates this position in Grantland this morning, and as usual does so in more and clearer detail than I could:
Breaking Down “The Decision”
You can understand why Carroll might be afraid of getting burned in what seemed like a hopeless situation for the opposition, because you only have to go back to Seattle’s last playoff loss to remember how quickly things can swing. That was during the 2012 playoffs, when the Seahawks came back from a 27-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to take a 28-27 lead with 34 seconds to go. In that game, the Seahawks handed the ball to Lynch on first-and-goal from the 2-yard line, and he immediately scored.
Despite the stunning comeback, Atlanta got the ball back with two timeouts, completed a pair of passes, and got a 49-yard field goal from Matt Bryant to win the game. The Packers, furthermore, responded to another huge Seattle comeback by taking over with 1:19 left and driving for a game-tying field goal in the NFC Championship Game. I’m not arguing that Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell should have been so time-conscious as to basically waste second down on a pass play. But I can understand why they would be overly sensitive about leaving too much time on the clock.
If you’re thinking about the game coming down to those three plays, you can also piece together a case that second down is the best time to throw the ball. As Wilson took that fateful second-down snap, there were 26 seconds left and Seattle had one timeout. Let’s pretend for a moment that the Seahawks decide to run the ball on second down. If they don’t get it, they have to call timeout, probably with about 22 seconds left. That means they’re stuck passing on third down with virtually no chance of running the ball, because it would be too difficult to line up after a failed run.
On the other hand, by throwing on second down, you could get two cracks at running the football while providing some semblance of doubt for the Patriots. If Wilson’s pass on second down is incomplete (and he avoids a sack, which seems likely given his ability to scramble), the clock stops with something like 20 seconds to go. That means you can run the ball on third down, use your final timeout, and then run the ball again on fourth down. All three plays come with the possibility of either throwing or running, which prevents the Patriots from selling out against one particular type of play.
You might argue that the logic there doesn’t include the danger of throwing the football and the downside of an interception, and that’s true, but there are negative possibilities in every play call. In fact, this season it was more dangerous to run the football from the 1-yard line than it was to throw it. Before Sunday, NFL teams had thrown the ball 108 times on the opposing team’s 1-yard line this season. Those passes had produced 66 touchdowns (a success rate of 61.1 percent, down to 59.5 percent when you throw in three sacks) and zero interceptions. The 223 running plays had generated 129 touchdowns (a 57.8 percent success rate) and two turnovers on fumbles.
Carroll claimed after the game that the Patriots were in their goal-line package and that the Seahawks, who came out with three wide receivers, were right to throw the ball and basically waste a play against a mismatch of personnel. I’m not sure I see that, and Belichick confirmed as much after the game. The Patriots did line up with a combination of eight defensive linemen and linebackers in the box, seven of whom were on the line of scrimmage at the snap, but they also played three cornerbacks — Malcolm Butler, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner — against Seattle’s three wideouts.
Rookie cornerback Butler did a great job of breaking on the slant for what will surely be the biggest interception of his life. As you can see from Sheil Kapadia’s tweet below, Butler had a lot of work to do to break up the pass once the ball was in the air, let alone actually make the interception:
The thing about the INT is Seattle got what it wanted with play-call. Unbelievable break on the ball by Butler.
The space you see in the screenshot makes Ricardo Lockette seem more open than he actually is — Butler has already identified on the route and he’s going to drive on the football — but it’s not as if Wilson made a dangerous throw into traffic. If the Seahawks really wanted to waste a play, as Carroll was suggesting, Wilson could have thrown this into the ground or thrown it through the back of the end zone. He didn’t because they got the exact look they were hoping for.
In terms of execution, I’d assign more blame to Lockette, who got beaten to the spot and knocked to the ground by Butler, a player Lockette outweighs by 20 pounds. As galvanizing as it’s been over the past 12 months for the Seattle wide receivers to contrast their no-name status with their success, this was a game when the team’s need to upgrade at receiver was clear.
So, that's where I think Carroll was justified in his play calling. Barnwell goes on to argue, however, that given the porous Patriot run defense and Lynch's unstoppability at the time, it was still a "subpar decision". I'm not so sure I agree.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
SUPER BOWL XLIX LIVE BLOG!
9:10 pm: THANKS FOR PLAYING ALONG, BOYS AND GIRLS! And remember, there's only four weeks to go until pre-season Australian Football begins! G'night!
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...
7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
Marshawn Lynch asked if he's surprised he didn't get the football. Says "No." I ask him, Why not? Says, "Because football is a team sport."
-
This season, the Seahawks had the most rushing yards by an NFL team since 2006, and they threw a pass needing a yard for the Super Bowl.
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
Super Bowl XLIX Photoblog: Halftime highlights
ESPN.comHere are some highlights from the Super Bowl XLIX halftime show featuring Katy Perry, Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliott.7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
- NE defenders may be thinking there's 32 more minutes of Marshawn Lynch coming at them.
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
- Paul McCartney in crowd. Probably thinks the Seahawks need to play betta betta betta
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Favorite5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
(No, this isn't ours... we're going with chili and chips, and some taquitos later...)
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
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