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Here's Graham Watson's obligatory piece rating the lo-oo-ong list of bowls from most to least interesting to watch. (This one's from Dr. Saturday on Yahoo...I'm sure ESPN and SI.com will have theirs up any moment now.) 

On our list, we particularly like the Arkansas/Texas matchup of the old SouthWest Conference rivals in the "Texas Bowl", as well as the Utah/Colorado St matchup in Vegas. Both games have teams right next to each other in our rankings, and are regional rivalries with a great deal of interest. West Virginia/Texas A&M in Memphis' "Liberty Bowl" should be a blast as well. Finally, as a Group of Five proponent, we are partial to the meeting of the C-USA and MAC champions, Marshall/Northern Illinois, in Boca Raton, Florida - two very good teams, no matter what level they're on. (We'll have much more on the bowl games down the road, including our projections for all of them.)

Okay, so what is the CFP Committee telling us tonight?

First of all, if this were LAST year, we would be busy arguing over which of Alabama, Oregon, or Florida St we would be leaving OUT of this BCS Championship Game! So, none of that, "things were better with the BCS" baloney!

So instead, we all agree that you can't leave an undefeated, defending champion Seminole team out of the playoff. We agree that Alabama is the consensus best team in the land, and as winners of three of the last five titles, they have to be in it, too. And if the dominant team in the second strongest conference, consensus top four, the most potent offensive force in the country isn't there, then there will always be co-champions. So three spots are locked in. 

Who's number four?

The committee has made its choice, and they've made it abundantly clear tonight who it is. Understand, they're NOT going to leave Florida St out. But by moving the TCU Horned Frogs AHEAD of them, they're making the statement that TCU is SAFE. They're cushioned from their pursuers by an impenetrable, unbeaten, seemingly unbeatable Seminole wall of protection. Only if THEY lose (or Oregon, or maybe Alabama if it's badly enough) will Ohio St or Baylor have a chance. 

Oh, by the way, message number two? The Buckeyes lost their quarterback...and they're STILL placed ahead of the Bears. Baylor WILL NOT PASS TCU. Why not? Because, in the eyes of the committee (and ours, by the way, and at least one if not two members of ESPN's talking heads presenting the rankings tonight), Baylor has one loss, to 7-5 West Virginia, and TCU's only blemish (61-58 at Baylor two months ago) was by three points on the road (which is the exact spread for home field advantage) to a Tier A team under (let's be honest here) frighteningly suspicious circumstances, which we discussed in this blog at that time. They, like us, barely consider that a loss; it was a "push", at best. We could argue the fact that TCU's resume, including a third victory over a winning team (Minnesota), makes them better. We could argue the 'eye test' - they simply LOOK better than Baylor or OSU. But the fact is, their loss was at best extremely close, and at worst highly suspect. Neither Ohio St nor Baylor can make that claim. THAT'S what the committee said tonight. "Nothing the Buckeyes or (especially) the Bears do this weekend matters - barring a loss by a top four team, we've MADE our selections."

From ESPN Stats: Some facts about WKU's 67-66 upset of Marshall Friday...

Western Kentucky's Leon Allen (237) and Marshall's Steward Butler (233) became the second pair of opposing running backs in FBS history to each rush for over 230 yards in the same game. The other? Maryland's Bruce Perry (237) and Wake Forest's Chris Barclay (243) in 1997.

Western Kentucky and Marshall combined for 133 points today. Including today's game, SMU has scored 106 all season.

The 133 combined points ties the most ever in a game involving a ranked team (No. 9 West Virginia beat No. 25 Baylor, 70-63, in 2012).

Western Kentucky scored more points today in football (67) than it did against Marshall in men's basketball last season (64).

The 15 combined Pass TD (8 by Brandon Doughty, 7 by Rakeem Cato) breaks an FBS record for most combined Pass TD in a game. It's the 2nd game in FBS history where 2 quarterbacks threw for at least 7 touchdowns (also California-Colorado earlier this season: Jared Goff and Sefo Liufau).

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook knew there was going to be a lot of points scored in Western Kentucky-Marshall, as the 76 over/under was the 2nd-highest mark of any of the games today or tomorrow (behind the 80 in Baylor-Texas Tech).The over hit with 7:23 remaining in the 2nd quarter.

This is the first time in Rakeem Cato's career he has thrown at least three interceptions in a home game.

Western Kentucky and Marshall combined to score 49 points in the 1st quarter (28-21 WKU). That is the most combined points in the 1st quarter of any FBS game this season. The previous high was 42 by New Mexico and Boise State on Nov. 8 when New Mexico led 28-14 after the 1st quarter.

What games are on tap for Week 12?

Of the sixty FBS games this week, the Las Vegas/Reno casino bookies, the folks who make their living by predicting the (perceived!) outcome of the games agreed with the predictions we made based on the tiered rankings we posted on Sunday.

For the record, we predict the outcome of games as follows: Count the number of tiers that the two teams differ by. So, for example, if one team is Tier B and the other is Tier G, there is a five tier difference (C, D, E, F, G) between them. Then, multiply that by 1 1/2 points for the neutral field advantage the higher team would have. Finally, give the home team an extra three points (if they're favored already, add three to the spread; if they're the underdog, subtract three). There's your prediction. (We've been known to adjust for unusual circumstances: when BYU lost their all-star QB, for example, the tiers had not adjusted for that at the time. Similarly, there might be motivating factors - rivalries, etc. - that urge us to change the spread - but we rarely do! More often than not, what you see is what you get...WYSIWYG!

Here are the games that have a significant difference between our forecasts and theirs:

UMass @ Akron Tuesday ... we say Akron by 3, they say by 7 1/2. They win. Akron 30, UMass 6. 
Kansas St @ West Virginia Thursday...we say K-St by 1, they say WV by 2 1/2! Our point! K-St 26, WVU 20.
UTEP @ Rice Friday...we say Rice wins by 2, they say Rice by 9. They lead 2-1. Rice wins big, 31-13.
Fordham @ Army Saturday...no forecast from Vegas because Fordham's an FCS school, but we believe they should be favored over Army by a point! Army 42-31.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St... there are a bunch of routs forecasted where the point difference between a 25 and a 35 point blowout is pointless to quibble over, but in this case, we're going to point out that we see a six-point win for Ball St, and Vegas sees seventeen! They were closer - it was 15. So they lead us 4-1 now...
Maryland @ Michigan... We have the Terps by five, Vegas has Michigan by 4.5! We cheered Maryland's late TD for the win, 23-16!
Florida International @ North Texas...we think it'll be FIU by two; they see UNT by 2! They were on again! UNT 17, FIU 14!
"The Big Game"! Stanford @ California...the home of the greatest, most controversial play in college football history in 1982. We have Cal by 3 1/2, they have Stanford by 6. We were doubly afraid of this one, with all our Berkeley relations...but it was Leland Sanford Junior University with the 38-17 win. Vegas up 6-2 now.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee...We see it as even; they have MTSU by 6 1/2! We're counting this one on our side - one is closer to "even" than it is to six! 35-34, Blue Raiders.
Oklahoma St @ Baylor...Another potential blowout, but our spreads differ significantly - we see Baylor by 11; they think the Bears will win by 27!  They'd have been spot on if Baylor wanted to run it up...49-28 in bad weather. 7-2, casinos.
Missouri @ Tennessee is the last game we'll compare - we have Mizzou by 1; they think the Volunteers win at home by 3 1/2. Missouri wins, 29-21, so we go into Sunday down four with four to go. Dormie at 7-3 down...

On the pro side, there are only four games to compare:
Cleveland @ Atlanta... We think Cleveland by 1; they see Atlanta by 3 1/2. And thanks to some terrible clock management, we were vindicated by the Browns' last-second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Houston...We think the Bengals win by 1; Vegas says Houston by 1 1/2. And the Bengals won comfortably. Two for two today - we still have a chance!
Arizona @ Seattle...We differ on the effect of the home field: Arizona by 2 on our board, Seattle by six on theirs!
Baltimore @ New Orleans  on Monday night...We call it even; they see the Saints with a 3 1/2 point advantage at home. Looks like it may wait until Monday night to determine whether we win or lose!

Week 9 upset alerts...and "as expected" alerts!,

Start in Division 1A - excuse us: "FCS"! - where defending champion North Dakota St trails 10-6 at the half to South Dakota St, which would be a huge upset, especially on the Bison's home field! What are NOT upsets are losses by Rhode Island (#13 in a row, falling to 0-9 this season by losing 28-13 at Delaware) and our personal favorite, Savannah St, who fell 59-7 at South Carolina St to extend its losing streak to eighteen, nine last year and nine this.

As for the FBS ranks, as usual, some of the "upsets" we called in advance, and some we missed entirely: 

Duke took two OTs to beat Pitt, who helped them out by missing a 26 yarder on the last play of regulation. We favored them, though Vegas had it the other way. Two OTs means we were half right.

East Carolina lost both their game and their favored underdog status today...TCU trails West Virginia by thirteen late in the third...and at the World's Largest Cocktail Party, the best drinks are being served on the Florida side of the parking lot, leading Georgia 24-7 in the third.

Forecasts for Week 8!

Looking through the oddsmakers' choices and spreads (and again, we do not advocate betting on football or any sport! It's just a device we use to estimate probable outcomes of games!), there aren't very many spots where we disagree with Vegas. Here are the most obvious:

In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!

We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!

We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.

Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.

Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!

In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.

Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title. 

Re:West Virginia/Baylor last week...

In their game Saturday, where the Mountaineers upset the 6-0 Bears 41-27, West Virginia gained 456 yards, Baylor gained 318, and the referees "gained" 353 yards in penalties. That's ridiculous, even if every foul was legitimate. To quote Allen Christensen's tweet from the game (courtesy of Holly Anderson of Grantland), "Ref asked #WVU fans to stop throwing objects on the field. THE FANS ASKED THE REFS TO STOP THROWING ITEMS ON THE FIELD!" How cool is that? We have zero sympathy for Baylor's team, having used curious clock construction to pull off the comeback against TCU the previous week, but c'mon! 353 yards of penalties? No administrator would stand for his subordinate penalizing employees like that without dealing the issue other ways...why are officials any different?

The Tiers have NARROWED for Week 7!

As we reach the halfway point of the season, we're narrowing the tiers again, down to SIX teams per tier. Eventually we'll get down to four, and at season's end we'll submit our final ranking order, from 1-124...but it's premature and unnecessary to do so now.

Tier A hosts the top six school teams as of now: three undefeateds (Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Florida St*) and three teams whose one loss was narrow, on the road, and to a top tier team (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU). Hard to deny them - almost hard to think there will be ANY unbeatens at season's end except for minor league champ Marshall.

Tier B contains six one-loss power teams, any of whom we could see beating even the Tier A teams on a given day: Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Oregon.

Tier C has Arizona, Duke, LSU, Nebraska, USC, and West Virginia. The Wildcats, Blue Devils, and Cornhuskers have one loss each; the others have last twice. But none of the nine losses were what you'd call embarrassing or 'inappropriate' - losing to good teams, no blowouts, and so forth. They'll hold their own against almost anyone, but we'd make them underdogs to the Tier A and B teams in a heartbeat.

When we get down to Tier D, some of these losses are a bit less excusable. These equate to rankings #19-24 in a conventional poll: Arizona St (5-1), East Carolina (5-1), Kansas St (5-1), Oklahoma (5-2), UCLA (5-2), and 5-1 Utah.

Tier E is essentially the equivalent of the fourth tier in last week's divisions, if comparisons are important to you: 5-2 Clemson, Colorado St (6-1), Kentucky (5-2), undefeated Marshall, Minnesota (6-1), and 5-2 Oklahoma St.

Tier F hosts six teams that (while not deserving grades of "F"!) have been disappointments at one level or another, more recently in particular: Georgia Tech (5-2, losers of their last two), Louisville (6-2), Maryland and Missouri (both 5-2), idle 4-2 Penn St, and free-falling Texas A&M, losers of three straight to three Tier A teams! What a killer schedule!

Now we've reached the levels of "receiving token votes" in the conventional polls, but these teams all have successes to boast of this year: Boise St, Miami-FL, Oregon St, Rutgers, Washington, and Wisconsin. All except the U have two losses; the Hurricanes have three. So, that's Tier G.

Tier H changed in drafts several times, but we've settled on Arkansas (4-3 in the toughest division in CFB history), Iowa (5-2), 4-3 Stanford and South Carolina and Utah St and Virginia.

The last level matching up with last week's divisions is Tier I, which features these competent teams: Air Force, Boston College, California, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Virginia Tech.

In the unofficial "tiery-eyed teams in waiting" green room are such teams as Bowling Green, fast-falling BYU, Florida, Houston, Northwestern, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Temple, and Texas Tech.

*If the Tallahassee police and FSU compliance officers truly put justice ahead of football success, do you think the Seminoles would still be undefeated?

And on the flip side, the Bottom Eight becomes the Bottom Six (plus seven more)... The undisputed master of the B6 is the lone winless team left in the FBS, the coachless SMU Mustangs, joined by Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St, and Troy. "Congratulations" to those clubs, some of whom were so far down that even a win didn't get them out of the basement!

Waiting for entrance to the exclusive club are Appalachian St, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, North Texas, UConn and UMass. Actually, three of those just escaped the B8, so "waiting" is inappropriate...

Reviewing another FANTASTIC Saturday in college ball!

- Baylor finally got what was coming to 'em today, and West Virginia finally beat one of those Tier 1 teams it played so well! Justice both ways...

- If Bob Stoops doesn't have open campus tryouts for a new kicker next week, then the Oklahoma coach should have his head examined...

- There are some teams that may sneak up on us when the Final Four are revealed in seven weeks or so (we'll publish a pice on THAT later in the week), and Minnesota may be one of them! Like Auburn last year, the luck of the Jedi is with the, this year...

- Duke / Virginia was as advertised, the Devils winning a tight one with a 4Q TD, 20-13...

- The Bottom Eight was packed with reverse upsets across the board: UMass winning big for the second week in a row, Appalachian St destroying Troy 53-14, Kent St beating the US Military Academy 39-17, and Idaho wins its first game of the year, 29-17 over fellow B8'er New Mexico St...

- Would anyone spotting the Texas A&M Aggies, please report their disappearance to the NCAA...

- The Battle of the University of California was also tremendous, with plenty of lead changes and great plays in UCLA's 36-34 victory over California...

- Ohio St, LSU, Marshall, TCU, Michigan St, Ole Miss and Oregon all demonstrated that sometimes, games DO go as expected, and the top team DOES win fairly easily...

- ... And sometimes, SMU is just as bad as we think they are. Cincinnati defeated the hapless Mustangs 41-3, in Dallas yet.

- Poor Todd Gurley. Your backups are proving that it was more the Georgia offensive line's doing than yours...

- Seven TD passes for USC tonight...game winning FG for Colorado St over their main rivals from Utah St... What happened to Florida and Kentucky today? Did their 3OT game a month ago wear them out (eventually)?... As good as the North Carolina QB looked against the Irish last week, it shouldn't have been a surprise that they could rise up and take out Georgia Tech 48-43...

- Did you see Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong leap the linebacker en route to an almost-TD against Northwestern? Alas, they planted his knee outside the end zone, and Abdullah had to run it in on the next play. the Huskers won 38-17...

- Unlike Georgia's Gurley, it's hard to be clearer as to how important Tayson Hill was to BYU than to watch how they've gone from a 4-0 threat for the title playoff to an 0-3 afterthought following his injury, losing again last night to Nevada-Reno 42-35...

- And last and certainly most, what an epic game between pretentious Notre Dame and criminal coddlers Florida St, won by the Seminoles 31-27 after a last minute score by the Irish was called back on an offensive pass interference call that...well, it took guts to make the call. 

Ryan Santoso's gonna eat for free tonight...

We've got to start paying attention to the Minnesota Gophers, who moved to 3-0 in the B1G with a 39-38 win, sparked by Santoso's 52-yard FG w just under five minutes to go in the game. Following last week's dramatic win over Northwestern on a kickoff return for a TD, these Gophers have that certain something that all champions need - and if there was ever a year the Big Ten was up for grabs, this is it!

Meanwhile, the Big Twelve is in shambles today, besides OU's epic meltdown, because Baylor's luck finally ran out in Morgantown, as WVU beat them 41-27 (and it wasn't that close). So, if TCU holds on and wins...are they now the front runner down south?

Games in American Football for Week 6...

The weekend starts on Thursday night, as the Indianapolis Colts go to Houston to play the Texans in the game of the night (BYU at UCF is a yawner - sorry, boys...). As much as the Following Football crowd loves JJ Watt (he who proposed to a six year old girl who swooned over him on YouTube last year!), you cannot bet against Andrew Luck in a prime time game (not that you should ever bet on football - especially pro football! WAY too unpredictable - even we so-called 'experts' are correct against the spread about as often as a coin flip!). We like the COLTS over the TEXANS by more than the 3 point spread.

Friday
San Diego State should beat New Mexico handily (by more than six), and we don't see Washington State allowing Stanford to beat them by the seventeen points the oddsmakers suggest. Take the Aztecs and the Cougars (for recreational purposes only!).

SATURDAY
 The games we like: Cincinnati won't lose by two touchdowns to Miami of FL...Expect West Virginia to go to Texas Tech and handle the Red Raiders easily...Texas Longhorn fans should watch something else Saturday than their game against Oklahoma: go cruise the State Fair, have a corn dog, or (gag!) deep-fried sweet tea (how do you even do that?). But the Sooners will demolish them sooner rather than later... Georgia Tech by more than four over Duke, thanks to the work of their chaplain's pre-game speeches...Kent State, despite being winless, will beat up UMass, who can't figure out how to win a game when the opposing team hands it to them (as Miami-OH did last week)...Not a no-brainer, but we like Baylor to win against the TCU Horned Frogs by more than the 8 1/2 point spread at home...Oregon will be quacking mad, and ready to rush right through the paper-mache offensive line of UCLA Saturday; expect a big Duck win...Idaho won't break their winless streak at Georgia Southern this week, but they will hold it closer than three TDs...We absolutely cannot believe that Michigan is favored over Penn State Saturday night; the Nittany Lions will make cat food out of them...LSU should be more than a 1 1/2 point favorite at Florida, but most bettors can't believe that the SEC West is as weak as the SEC East is strong. Literally, the first place team in the West would lose against all but Arkansas in the East, and even Arkansas would be 4-3 or better in the West. Take the Tigers.

SUNDAY
Again, betting on NFL games in the age of parity is like playing roulette, but here's a couple of games we think we can guess the way the chips will fall: The Broncos should end up ten or more points clear of the Jets, but Peyton'll wait until being back in Denver to break the TD record...We like the Panthers to keep close to the Bengals, and the Steelers to stay close to the Browns, although we have no confidence on victories in either case... The Redskins, Raiders, and Giants are all expected to lose (to the Cardinals, Chargers, and Eagles, respectively), but we think the line-makers are too conservative. Take the favorites and the points.

And on Monday night, it's hard for us to see the Rams staying closer than a field goal to the Forty-Niners, even at home.