Terminal Thursday Thoughts

I've talked about this all week, and this is my last scheduled post of the cycle, so let me start and end with the reminder: if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

The issue, of course, is that as much as I love doing this blog, as much as crunching numbers to quantify and align teams at their supposed performance levels is fun for me to do...the time and effort it takes to do the thorough job for all of the teams I feel need to be covered each week is more than I have available to me, at least when you combine that with my regular (read: "paying") job, caring for my children, and the deteriorating condition of my health (which has zero to do with this blog). 

In the past, I've had people from Idaho, California, Nevada, North Carolina and Washington who've contacted me about what they've read, and I've known through that kind of anecdotal evidence that we were reaching people, that what we were doing was valued by someone out there. It's not like we need a thousand regular readers, but if we don't have any, which is what the lack of comment feedback suggests, we're just "spitting into the wind", as they say.

If that's not the case, we need you to tell us so.

CONTACT us through the comment section on this or either of the other two posts over the last two days (our regular UPS and DOWNS column, and our PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL overview of the weekend's procedings (which starts today with the Giants and "Redskins" - an article on line today suggesting the life expectancy of the latter name is close to becoming a finite, definable number). 

Here's a thought we were having ourselves that 538 picked up this morning - there seem to be a bunch of "good teams" in the NFL who have started their season 0-2, usually an indicator that the playoffs are out of reach for most. Consider this list of teams: Seattle, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Detroit, NJ Giants, and Philadelphia. History suggests that ONLY ONE of those seven teams will make it into the post-season! (I've not "forgotten" New Orleans and Chicago. That was intentional.) The chart below in the 538 article shows that of the 7-8 teams over the last two years to go 0-2, only one made the playoffs each year.To make the postseason, most of the time it'll take at least ten wins - and you only have fourteen games left to do so it. A tall order, given that something's not going well to begin with (or you wouldn't be 0-2!). 

(By the way, my thought is that the best bet for a playoff team out of this group is the winner of the Indy/Houston race, as Jax and the Titans are unlikely to reach more than eight wins apiece.)

The Eagles And Ravens Are Screwed
By REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and CHADWICK MATLIN

We’re two weeks into the NFL season, and nine teams are 0-2. But these winless squads are not created equal: The Seattle Seahawks, last season’s NFC champion, are clearly in better shape than the terrible Chicago Bears. Still, two games is an eighth of the season, and two early losses can wipe out even the best teams’ margin of error for the rest of the season.

So, how bad is it to start 0-2? And which of these nine teams have already screwed up their playoff chances?

QUICK! Before Sunday's games start!

It occurs that we told you the consensus choices other pundits as far as the upcoming NFL season goes, but you've not gotten the benefit of the wisdom of the proven leader in prognostication - Following Football!

So, here are our division projections: 

AFC)

EAST: 1) New England. 2) Miami. Close 3) Buffalo. Distant 4) New York Jets.
NORTH: 1) Baltimore by two full games. 2) Pittsburgh. 3) Cincinnati. 4) Vacant. 5) Cleveland.
SOUTH: 1) Indianapolis. 2, closer than you think) Houston. 3, farther than they'd like) Jax. 4) Tennessee.
WEST: All four teams will have at least six wins AND losses... 1) Denver. 2) San Diego. 3) Kansas City. 4) Oakland, all within four games.

NFC)

EAST: 1) Philadelphia IF Sam Bradford is one of the 10-12 best QBs in the league; otherwise Dallas. 2) figure it out... 3) New York Giants. 4 with a stone) Washington.
NORTH: 1) Green Bay. 2) Minnesota. 3) Detroit.
SOUTH: 1) Vacant. 2) Carolina, reluctantly. 3) New Orleans and Atlanta (tie). 4) Tampa Bay.
WEST: 1) Seattle. 2) Arizona. 3) St. Louis. 4) San Francisco.

4) Chicago. (Not a typo.)

PLAYOFFS: AFC seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 6 Houston...seed 5 Pittsburgh def. seed 4 Denver. NFC seed 3 Philadelphia def. seed 6 Arizona...seed 5 Dallas def. seed 4 Carolina.

AFC seed 1 New England def. seed 5 Pittsburgh...seed 3 Baltimore def. seed 2 Indianapolis. NFC seed 1 Green Bay def. seed 5 Dallas...seed 2 Seattle def. seed 3 Philadelphia.

AFC Championship: New England def. Baltimore...NFC Championship: Green Bay def. Seattle.

SUPER BOWL: Green Bay and Cal Berkeley grad Aaron Rodgers def. New England and Bay Area product Tom Brady in Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA

Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!

Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky! 

Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:

A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...

AFC East: New England

AFC South: Indianapolis

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC West: Seattle

Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.

The other division winners are projected as follows: 

AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)

 AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)

NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)

NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).

Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:

AFC playoff teams                                                     NFC playoff teams

1. Indianapolis (#3 overall)                                          1. Green Bay (#1 overall)

2. New England (#4 overall)                                        2. Seattle (#2 overall)

[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]

3. Denver (#5 overall)                                                  3. Dallas (#6 overall)

4. Baltimore (#8 overall)                                              4. Carolina (#14 overall)

5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall)                                             5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)

6. Cincinnati (#11 overall)                                            6. Arizona (#10 overall)

[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]

Below those teams...

7. Miami (#12 overall)                                                  7. New Orleans (#17 overall)

[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]

8. Kansas City (#13 overall)                                         8. Minnesota (#18 overall)

9. Buffalo (#15 overall)                                                9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)

10. San Diego (#16 overall)                                         10. Detroit (#21 overall)

11. Houston (#20 overall)                                            11. Atlanta (#22 overall)

12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall)                                12. St. Louis (#23 overall)

13. Jacksonville (#28 overall)                                      13. San Francisco (#24 overall)

14. Cleveland (#30 overall)                                          14. Chicago (#26 overall)

15. Oakland (#31 overall)                                             15. Washington (#27 overall)

16. Tennessee (#32 overall)                                         16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)

Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?

As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...

Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:

Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game

Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)

Alabama (8.5 to 1)

TCU (9 to 1)
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)

From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!] 

Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year! 

Now...about the NFL trade period...wow!

We don't even know where to start. 

St. Louis and the Philadelphia Kellys trading starting quarterbacks?

New Orleans having a fire sale?

San Francisco losing all these great players (and coaches!) and then picking up a ton of new ones as well?

The entire AFC East getting TONS better? Especially Buffalo - that's my new co-favorite (because until New England falls, I'm not betting against them...).

Seattle getting Jimmy Graham? Dallas losing DeMarco Murray? Miami signing Ndamukong Suh? (I spelled that without looking it up! Proud of me!)

And what will the Eagles look like when Chip gets done?

I think the best advice I've heard, and many wise pundits have repeated it many times, is this: It's only March 16, people. There's plenty of time - there are many more dominoes to fall - the draft is still coming. 

When the dust settles and summer arrives...then we can make our evaluations.

(But it's going to be fun to see what those teams we've named in particular look like then!)

Here is the latest update from Rotoworld and NBC Sports as to where each of the free agents in the NFL has signed ...

More NFL trade talk...

And the hits keep coming... Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets...Is there a positive outcome for either team in the Nick Foles to the Rams/Sam Bradford to Philly trade?...Jimmy Graham to Seattle from the Saints makes sense from both sides (New Orleans is WAY over the cap), but it apparently isn't making Graham a happy man!...Finally, Peter King has his usual great insight into the amazing changes throughout the NFL landscape over the last week in his Monday Wednesday Morning Quarterback column, including some interesting notes about the probable number one pick in the draft, Jamies Winston.

A few last thoughts on a SUPER championship game last Sunday..

...before we move on to the Australian Footy season and the off-season, 12-month-per-year business that IS the NFL in the 21st century:

It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.

Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.

The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...

Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)

And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe  Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are! 

A terrible impression left by Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin

Doug Baldwin, arguably the best wide receiver on the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks, is rapidly losing the respect of the football community for his non-performance behavior, and it's not hard to understand why. 

This didn't show up on NBC's broadcast, thankfully, but after Baldwin's TD catch in the third quarter, he made an initial, instinctive celebration that was reasonable and appropriate, and that was shown. During the cutaway, when we were looking at coaches or whomever, Baldwin decided that the most impressive thing he could do while he had the attention of the nation was "pop a squat" and look like he was defecating the football onto the ground. (I'm not about to link that photo. Google it if you must.)

Now, Peter King reports in his MMQB mailbag that Baldwin considered the media's "respect" for him more important than practicing for the Super Bowl with his team:

At the risk of making this all about me, I’m going to make this all about me. Last week, I was the pool reporter for the Pro Football Writers of America covering Seattle Seahawks practices. I was standing on the sidelines of practice Friday, inside the Arizona State University football practice bubble, when, after a play was run, Doug Baldwin strode over to me until he was right in front of me. He was not happy. He said angrily: “You’re into this mediocre receiver s—, right? I read your s—.”

What? Huh? I truly didn’t know what he was talking about.

Baldwin had anger in his eyes. “You’re one of them!” he said. “I read your s—.”

With that, he walked back to practice. Here’s a starting NFL receiver, during a Super Bowl practice, interrupting his role in this workout to come over to a sportswriter to rip him.

This is apparently what Baldwin was referring to, from last week’s Monday Morning Quarterback column, after Baldwin had lost a fumble, dropped a pass, and caught six balls in the NFC Championship Game win over Green Bay. I wrote: “Stop, just stop, Seahawks, with the we-don’t-get-no-respect rants. It’s unbecoming. Doug Baldwin, you’re a good player. But that stuff gets old. Very old, particularly when you and Jermaine Kearse miss balls early, make some plays late, then somehow get motivated against the doubters. Whatever all that means.”

Baldwin did something so distasteful after scoring in the Super Bowl that NBC wouldn’t even air the complete replay of his catch and “celebration.”

He should spend less time finding phony ways to motivate himself and more time learning what adulthood is like.

More smart people who agree with me...

Here's the analysis from Five Thirty Eight, the statistical geek arm of ESPN, that backs up my belief that Pete Carroll's play call was completely reasonable at the end of the game...

Mike Sando had the perfect stat for the situation in my opinion, explaining why Carroll's choice wasn't that risky:

Mike Sando, ESPN.com        ✔ @SandoESPN

#NFL teams this season threw 66 TD passes with 1 INT on passes from the 1-yard line. That 1 INT was ... well ... tonight.

11:24 PM - 1 Feb 2015

And, if Wilson didn't have an open receiver in that scenario - do you really think he was going to get sacked? When all he had to do was chuck it into the stands? Or run around (which, I'm told, he's pretty good at...)?

And by the way - what about that Jermaine Kearse acrobatic catch that led to the game-ending situation? If you didn't think of David Tyree in that situation, you don't empathize with Patriot fans...

Upon further review, I disagree with the world.

Ian O'Connor's piece this morning in ESPN sums up the consensus opinion of the sports world on the play call heard 'round the world, that Pete Carroll had the intelligence of a vegetable to call a pass play on the one yard line with thirty seconds to go in the Super Bowl when he had Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch available in the backfield. However, I argue that it was a perfectly acceptable call, and had it worked (or even just fallen incomplete) even a brilliant call under the circumstances. Bill Barnwell articulates this position in Grantland this morning, and as usual does so in more and clearer detail than I could:

Breaking Down “The Decision”

You can understand why Carroll might be afraid of getting burned in what seemed like a hopeless situation for the opposition, because you only have to go back to Seattle’s last playoff loss to remember how quickly things can swing. That was during the 2012 playoffs, when the Seahawks came back from a 27-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to take a 28-27 lead with 34 seconds to go. In that game, the Seahawks handed the ball to Lynch on first-and-goal from the 2-yard line, and he immediately scored.

Despite the stunning comeback, Atlanta got the ball back with two timeouts, completed a pair of passes, and got a 49-yard field goal from Matt Bryant to win the game. The Packers, furthermore, responded to another huge Seattle comeback by taking over with 1:19 left and driving for a game-tying field goal in the NFC Championship Game. I’m not arguing that Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell should have been so time-conscious as to basically waste second down on a pass play. But I can understand why they would be overly sensitive about leaving too much time on the clock.

If you’re thinking about the game coming down to those three plays, you can also piece together a case that second down is the best time to throw the ball. As Wilson took that fateful second-down snap, there were 26 seconds left and Seattle had one timeout. Let’s pretend for a moment that the Seahawks decide to run the ball on second down. If they don’t get it, they have to call timeout, probably with about 22 seconds left. That means they’re stuck passing on third down with virtually no chance of running the ball, because it would be too difficult to line up after a failed run.

On the other hand, by throwing on second down, you could get two cracks at running the football while providing some semblance of doubt for the Patriots. If Wilson’s pass on second down is incomplete (and he avoids a sack, which seems likely given his ability to scramble), the clock stops with something like 20 seconds to go. That means you can run the ball on third down, use your final timeout, and then run the ball again on fourth down. All three plays come with the possibility of either throwing or running, which prevents the Patriots from selling out against one particular type of play.

You might argue that the logic there doesn’t include the danger of throwing the football and the downside of an interception, and that’s true, but there are negative possibilities in every play call. In fact, this season it was more dangerous to run the football from the 1-yard line than it was to throw it. Before Sunday, NFL teams had thrown the ball 108 times on the opposing team’s 1-yard line this season. Those passes had produced 66 touchdowns (a success rate of 61.1 percent, down to 59.5 percent when you throw in three sacks) and zero interceptions. The 223 running plays had generated 129 touchdowns (a 57.8 percent success rate) and two turnovers on fumbles.

Carroll claimed after the game that the Patriots were in their goal-line package and that the Seahawks, who came out with three wide receivers, were right to throw the ball and basically waste a play against a mismatch of personnel. I’m not sure I see that, and Belichick confirmed as much after the game. The Patriots did line up with a combination of eight defensive linemen and linebackers in the box, seven of whom were on the line of scrimmage at the snap, but they also played three cornerbacks — Malcolm Butler, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner — against Seattle’s three wideouts.

Rookie cornerback Butler did a great job of breaking on the slant for what will surely be the biggest interception of his life. As you can see from Sheil Kapadia’s tweet below, Butler had a lot of work to do to break up the pass once the ball was in the air, let alone actually make the interception:

Sheil Kapadia‏@SheilKapadia

The thing about the INT is Seattle got what it wanted with play-call. Unbelievable break on the ball by Butler.

The space you see in the screenshot makes Ricardo Lockette seem more open than he actually is — Butler has already identified on the route and he’s going to drive on the football — but it’s not as if Wilson made a dangerous throw into traffic. If the Seahawks really wanted to waste a play, as Carroll was suggesting, Wilson could have thrown this into the ground or thrown it through the back of the end zone. He didn’t because they got the exact look they were hoping for.

In terms of execution, I’d assign more blame to Lockette, who got beaten to the spot and knocked to the ground by Butler, a player Lockette outweighs by 20 pounds. As galvanizing as it’s been over the past 12 months for the Seattle wide receivers to contrast their no-name status with their success, this was a game when the team’s need to upgrade at receiver was clear.

So, that's where I think Carroll was justified in his play calling. Barnwell goes on to argue, however, that given the porous Patriot run defense and Lynch's unstoppability at the time, it was still a "subpar decision". I'm not so sure I agree.

I don't want to say that folks thought Marshawn Lynch should've run the ball at the end, but...

...here's the Twitter reaction from throughout the league...

SUPER BOWL XLIX LIVE BLOG!

9:10 pm: THANKS FOR PLAYING ALONG, BOYS AND GIRLS! And remember, there's only four weeks to go until pre-season Australian Football begins! G'night!

• 8:37 PM
  

  Harvard_Sports

  The Pats allowed opponents to score 81% of the time in power situations (runs on 3rd/4th & <2, or w/i 2 yds of goalline). Dead last in NFL.

9 pm: 

30mAditi Kinkhabwala@AKinkhabwala

Marshawn Lynch asked if he's surprised he didn't get the football. Says "No." I ask him, Why not? Says, "Because football is a team sport."

• 
  17mField Yates@FieldYates

  Among the lasting images of SB XLIX… RT @ekaycbs: this picture is fantastic http://t.co/m9FvysXdmH
  
  

• 48mJohn Boyle@johnpboyle

  This season, the Seahawks had the most rushing yards by an NFL team since 2006, and they threw a pass needing a yard for the Super Bowl.

8:30 pm: Asking owner Robert Kraft, what would you say to those who questioned this team over the last two weeks? "Well, we beat the Colts 45 to 7, and we would have won that game no matter what. We won today 28-24, and we never had anything to do with the footballs."

8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.

8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.

8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!

8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?

7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,

7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?

7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...

7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).

7:15 pm: 

Super Bowl XLIX Photoblog: Halftime highlights

ESPN.comHere are some highlights from the Super Bowl XLIX halftime show featuring Katy Perry, Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliott.

7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
 Fourth quarter about to begin...

7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.

6:55 pm: 
Charean Williams

What a dumb penalty by Baldwin. Acted like he was taking a dump. Used ball as a prop.

Dave Boling retweeted

1mChris Barron@tbc5150

@DaveBoling #poopgate http://t.co/9P

6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)

6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....

6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...

6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.

5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.

5:43 pm:

• 
  6mDave Boling@DaveBoling

  NE defenders may be thinking there's 32 more minutes of Marshawn Lynch coming at them.

5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.

5:30 pm: 

• 
  2mDave Boling@DaveBoling

  Paul McCartney in crowd. Probably thinks the Seahawks need to play betta betta betta

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5:15 pm: Dink....dink...dink...touchdown slant pass, Patriots. That's exactly how we were told they'd win if they were going to. 7-0, N'England.

5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)

4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.

4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.

4:40 pm:  And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....

4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?

4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with? 

(No, this isn't ours... we're going with chili and chips, and some taquitos later...)

3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.

3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...

3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg

If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...