If we're to be legit about predicting games, we've got to follow up on our predictions each week, so you have some idea what return you're getting on your investment, right? So, here we go!
Rugby) Nailed it. New Zealand 34-17 over Australia.
NFL) An awkward weekend! Got four right (picking the Pats, Chiefs, Vikes, and Cards to win and cover); had one push (Ravens by three over SD) and three more where we picked the right winner but they barely missed the cover (Seattle by ONE, Houston by THREE instead of four, and Saints by THREE instead of 3 1/2! Aaagh!). Missed the winners entirely on victories by Tampa, the Raiders, Cincy and Denver (Manning be Manning again!); and missed that SF wouldn't cover against the Rams. So with the winners we went 9-4; ATS, though, we were 4-8-1, with one to go tonight. (Carolina covers seven against Indy.)
CFL) Two-and-two: we got the two dominant teams in the west, Calgary and Edmonton, winning their games handily. But we missed the other two - the BC Lions clinched a playoff spot by upsetting Toronto (guaranteeing them third place in the East), and sophomore franchise Ottawa moved within one step of a division title by beating Hamilton 12-6 in Hamilton! All they have to do now is play them again at home Saturday and either win or lose by fewer than six points. Good luck, RedBlacks!
NCAA) By sections...
BIG GAMES in the FBS - we went 4-1! Missed UNC beating Pitt 26-19, but nailed wins by Florida and LaTech, and knew Stanford and Notre Dame would win close battles with Wazzu and Temple, respectively.
BIG GAMES in the FCS - 3-3 here, but we're good with it. Our winners: Dayton 31-14 over Jacksonville; J-ville State routing Eastern Kentucky; and William & Mary over JMU. Our losers weren't embarrasing - Charleston Southern edged out Coastal Carolina, handing the defending conference champs their first loss; Fordham lost 31-29 to Colgate in an incredible game; and an even more amazing game saw Harvard beat Dartmouth as predicted, but only by one point (not 10+ as called). Big Green held the champs scoreless until six minutes to go in the game, stopping Harvard on interceptions, fumbles, and so forth every time they made it into hostile territory. But they scored a TD with six to go, failed on the next drive, and then went down and scored on fourth down to win the game 14-13. Great teams find ways to win.
OTHER GAMES of interest in the FBS - Four right, five wrong, one push, and one push-ish (Auburn lost by 8 on a seven point spread). Proud of the way Minnesota reacted Saturday night, and deserved to beat Michigan. Took three OTs for Oregon to prove our Sun Devil forecast wrong!
OTHER GAMES of interest in the FCS - Seven right, three winners but we missed the margin badly (Illinois St, Eastern Washington, and Marist weren't close to what we called), and five we had the wrong victors - congrats to Alabama A&M, Alcorn St, Penn, Furman, and first-year ballers Kennesaw St, who went to 6-2 with an upset of Monmouth Saturday! Are they actually a threat to Coastal and Charleston Southern? We'll find out soon enough!
All other games... - 14-8 in the FBS predictions against the spread; 32-7 picking winners in the FCS.
All in all, not bad...
Showing posts with label Peyton Manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peyton Manning. Show all posts
Monday, November 2, 2015
Saturday, January 31, 2015
The 4th annual NFL Honors were tonight...
...and it was interesting to watch the NFL try to do Hollywood...
Seth Meyers did a great job...to the Boston native's credit, he spent a good chunk of the monologue skewering BallGhazi, or DeFlateGate, or whatever else we call it...
JJ Watt is apparently either a demi-god or was being softened up not to get the MVP award...although he did become the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year...
Thomas Davis made me cry just a little bit when he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award...
Aaron Rodgers had one of the better lines of the night telling Peyton Manning that his quad looked pretty good and he should come back already...Rodgers won the MVP but came up second best to Davis for the Man of the Year...
None of the Patriots or Seahawks were there, or allowed to be there (it seemed). Rob Gronkowski won Comeback of the Year, and his four brothers and mother accepted for him. Two of the brothers took credit for his toughness by beating upon him throughout his childhood...
Odelle Beckham Jr. got lots of credit for The Catch... but Larry Fitzgerald earned the first ever Art Rooney Sportsman of the Year, deservedly so...
Arizona Cardinals' coach Bruce Arians earned his second Coach of the Year honors, and DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys was Offensive Player of the Year.
Finally, to see Jim Kelly get a standing O from the NFL fraternity before introducing the eight member Hall of Fame class of 2015 was touching. Then, the most touched member of an obviously elated crowd of electees was veteran Vikings' lineman Mick Tinglehoff, who was selected by the veterans' committee and was almost overwhelmed by the moment. Also elected were 'contributors' Ron Wolf and Bill Polian, along with five other players: Jerome Bettis, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley, and the late great Junior Seau, a recent suicide from concussion trauma, who was represented by his two sons (who are the spitting image of him!).
Seth Meyers did a great job...to the Boston native's credit, he spent a good chunk of the monologue skewering BallGhazi, or DeFlateGate, or whatever else we call it...
JJ Watt is apparently either a demi-god or was being softened up not to get the MVP award...although he did become the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year...
Thomas Davis made me cry just a little bit when he won the Walter Payton Man of the Year award...
Aaron Rodgers had one of the better lines of the night telling Peyton Manning that his quad looked pretty good and he should come back already...Rodgers won the MVP but came up second best to Davis for the Man of the Year...
None of the Patriots or Seahawks were there, or allowed to be there (it seemed). Rob Gronkowski won Comeback of the Year, and his four brothers and mother accepted for him. Two of the brothers took credit for his toughness by beating upon him throughout his childhood...
Odelle Beckham Jr. got lots of credit for The Catch... but Larry Fitzgerald earned the first ever Art Rooney Sportsman of the Year, deservedly so...
Arizona Cardinals' coach Bruce Arians earned his second Coach of the Year honors, and DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys was Offensive Player of the Year.
Finally, to see Jim Kelly get a standing O from the NFL fraternity before introducing the eight member Hall of Fame class of 2015 was touching. Then, the most touched member of an obviously elated crowd of electees was veteran Vikings' lineman Mick Tinglehoff, who was selected by the veterans' committee and was almost overwhelmed by the moment. Also elected were 'contributors' Ron Wolf and Bill Polian, along with five other players: Jerome Bettis, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley, and the late great Junior Seau, a recent suicide from concussion trauma, who was represented by his two sons (who are the spitting image of him!).
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Peter King has the answer to Peyton's Problems...
Well, not THE ANSWER as in, "Here's the solution to Everything!" More like, "here's exactly what the problem is, when it started, how it affected him, and therefore what we can expect moving forward from here." He writes about his examination of all 735 Broncos passing plays this season for MMQB on Sports Illustrated's SI.com today.
Puzzled about the "mutual decision to move on" from John Fox for the Denver Broncos after four playoff appearances (one with freak'n Tim Tebow as his quarterback!), one Super Bowl appearance, and two top conference seeds?
Us too.
Bill Barnwell of Grantland spells it out very well today, and it's worth a read. It implies that the orange and blue will look completely different next fall, not just with a new head coach...
Us too.
Bill Barnwell of Grantland spells it out very well today, and it's worth a read. It implies that the orange and blue will look completely different next fall, not just with a new head coach...
Monday, January 12, 2015
How injured WAS he?
Following the decimation of the Denver Bronco's "mystique" yesterday by the upstart Indianapolis Colts, many observers are saying that Peyton Manning should definitely hang it up now before he degrades any farther. Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays of Grantland certainly think so, and it's hard to look at yesterday's game and find a good rebuttal for them.
But now comes this report, from Adam Schefter of ESPN (whose job it is to find things like this out, and he's legendarily good at his job), that Manning was playing with a torn quad muscle, not only yesterday but for the past month.
But now comes this report, from Adam Schefter of ESPN (whose job it is to find things like this out, and he's legendarily good at his job), that Manning was playing with a torn quad muscle, not only yesterday but for the past month.
Friday, January 9, 2015
Your last look at the NFL Divisional Round games this weekend
The "Elite Eight", the home bye week, the quarterfinals. Whatev, dude... To me, this is the REAL start of the playoffs, growing up in the seventies when each conference only GOT four entrants in the Super Derby (three divisions and one wild card, BTW). The best from each of the NFL's eight divisions stack up Saturday and Sunday, and here's some conjectures as to how the games might go...Remember, as Gregg Easterbrook of TMQ likes to say, All Predictions Wrong Or Your Money Back. (Easterbrook says because the home team with the bye historically wins these games at a MUCH higher rate than normal home field advantage, he ALWAYS recommends taking the home team in this round.)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: The line in Vegas has New England by 7; Jeff Sagarin also says 7. Their respective ESPN bloggers think the margin will be ten or eleven; Sports Illustrated's Don Banks says 27-20, home team; Grantland's Bill Simmons says 20-17 for his beloved Pats; and Nate Silver's 538 calls this a 5.5 point spread. Fox Sports is predicting a New England victory by ghe score of 24-20. Following Football has been following suit, calling this a 7.5 point game, but we highly suspect we'll be off by at LEAST a half point! NOBODY, however, will be shellshocked if 5-0 in the playoffs Joe Flacco goes into Foxboro and moves to 3.5 - 0.5 all time in Massachusetts against Belechick (the one loss was a fluke shanked field goal).
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: When you send a 7-win "playoff" team coming off a win over a shell of a football club into the raucous home of the defending champions, you get the kind of spreads you see for the late game Saturday. Vegas started at 10 1/2 and went UP to 11; Sagarin said 13 from the get-go. Amazingly, David Newton of ESPN has the Panthers winning 16-14: the cable giant is testing him for hallucinogens as we speak. His blog partnerhas a more appropriate 20-10 score planned. Fox Sports predicts a 26-18 Seattle win; Banks calls it 23-17; Nate Silver lists the spread at eleven; and Bill Simmons is betting his house, forecasting a 30-3 final score. Our numbers predict a more conservative 9.5 point margin, but this is the one game where we'd be GENUINELY shocked to see an upset.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: There is an amazingly consistent set of prognostications coming from all corners for the renewal of the Ice Bowl: everyone predicts a home team victory, but nobody doubts that it'll be very close (within a touchdown, guaranteed!). The casino spread started at 6 1/2 and has fallen to 5 1/2 (in the Pack's favor, of course); Sagarin's numbers suggest a spread of just a shade over four points; the two ESPN bloggers for these teams foresee margins of two and four; Silver believes it'll be 2.5; Banks is going 31-27 (a VERY common score prediction); Fox says 26-24; and the official, verified, often-imitated-but-never-duplicated Following Football tier system says it'll be exactly the 5 1/2 point spread Las Vegas predicts, which worries me, because if it IS, there will have to be a scoring play like none other in history. Only Bill Simmons breaks ranks, originally just figuring on the Cowboys beating the spread, and then at the end just throwing up his hands and saying 24-22, Dallas. Good luck, Bill - you'll make Governor Christie a very happy man if you're right!
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: Set aside the "Manning versus his old team" stuff for a minute and think about what his Colts' biggest drawback was...yep, it wad the lack of a defense. (And a running game, for that matter, but irrelevant...) This time, the fact that the weaker defense wears blue again will be his blessing, not his curse, and we see a six point Broncos victory here at FF. Most prognosticators we're looking at agree: Fox says 28-25 Broncos; Simmons goes with 31-20, Denver; Silver says it'll be about a 5.5 point spread; Banks sees a 34-31 game in the offing. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are placing this as a 4 1/2 spread, while Vegas goes with a full touchdown and extra point. Only one of the two ESPN bloggers dares to predict another one-and-done for Eli and Cooper's middle brother, seeing a 35-31 win on the strength of Andrew Luck, not any weakness in Denver's offense; the other has Peyton winning, 31-22.
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
About Jamies Winston...
Andrea Adelson is right. There really is only one choice he can make. Jamies Winston, quarterback and lightning rod of the Florida State Seminoles, announced today he's leaving the university to go to the NFL, certainly as a first round pick, possibly as the very first pick of the draft.
If you're in college training to enter a particular profession, and that profession tells you after two years that you are already the best candidate for their job and they want to hire you and compensate you appropriately for that position, of course you take it. That's why you went to college - and I guarantee that's the only reason Winston went to college. This is not going to be a diatribe on the need for a college education, although for 98% of college players I'm all set to climb on that soapbox in a heartbeat.
No, the question I want to ask is this: Would YOU draft Jamies Winston, knowing what we know publicly about him?
Yes, he's talented - I heard ESPN's "Mike and Mike" arguing today he's the best pure quarterback in the draft since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford three years back, and I'll take their word for it. I'm not sure that even as "pure quarterbacks" go, I wouldn't rather have Marcus Mariota, but let's take their point as given for now.
What and who do you want your quarterback to be? He is the leader of your team. He sets the tone, not only for your offense, but for your entire team. Often, his persona is more important than that of the head coach: watching Peyton Manning in Indy, with Jim Caldwell as his coach, did you ever get the feeling that the team fed off of Caldwell? NO...it was always Peyton running the show.
Speaking of Manning, think back to when he came out of college. Like this year, with Winston and Mariota, there were two consensus "great" QBs coming into the draft: Peyton Manning, from Tennessee, and Ryan Leaf, from Washington State. Both put up numbers and videos that made you drool as a scout; the whole world knew that Indianapolis and San Diego were going to take them one-two. What was the difference between them? Peyton Manning had a reasoned head on his shoulders. At the time (and from recent evidence, probably it's still true), Leaf didn't. The result, of course - Manning is one game short of 70,000 passing yards in his career; Leaf has been out of football for over a decade after playing just 25 games in his two year career.
Character MATTERS, most especially for a quarterback. Ndamukong Suh can have a career as a defensive lineman with a rap sheet like his; receivers can get away with murder (ooooh...sorry, Aaron Hernandez - I guess that's not literally true...). But look at the quarterbacks in the league: Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Rivers, Romo, Wilson, Kaepernick, Palmer, Smith, Ryan, Newton, Tannehill, Dalton, Flacco, Stafford... They're all upstanding citizens. The worst you can say about any of the current quarterbacks is that Jay Cutler's sullen and Ben Roethlisberger's bar habits are a little questionable. Exceptions are few and far between. Michael Vick's about the only one that comes to mind: a QB who was successful leading his team, AND had trouble with the law on a regular basis. The others who did - Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, and (we highly suspect) Johnny Manziel - didn't last long in the NFL, no matter HOW good they were in college.
We will put it in writing right now, on the day Jamies Winston was announced to be coming out for the NFL draft: he will NOT be a successful NFL quarterback. If he's starting for a team in five years, we'll be astounded. Mariota may or may not make it - NOBODY's a sure thing, no matter what they say - because of his training in a "blur offense" style that doesn't translate to NFL teams well. But we'd take him over Winston seven days a week, and twice on Sunday. (Church in the morning, games in the afternoon!)
If you're in college training to enter a particular profession, and that profession tells you after two years that you are already the best candidate for their job and they want to hire you and compensate you appropriately for that position, of course you take it. That's why you went to college - and I guarantee that's the only reason Winston went to college. This is not going to be a diatribe on the need for a college education, although for 98% of college players I'm all set to climb on that soapbox in a heartbeat.
No, the question I want to ask is this: Would YOU draft Jamies Winston, knowing what we know publicly about him?
Yes, he's talented - I heard ESPN's "Mike and Mike" arguing today he's the best pure quarterback in the draft since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford three years back, and I'll take their word for it. I'm not sure that even as "pure quarterbacks" go, I wouldn't rather have Marcus Mariota, but let's take their point as given for now.
What and who do you want your quarterback to be? He is the leader of your team. He sets the tone, not only for your offense, but for your entire team. Often, his persona is more important than that of the head coach: watching Peyton Manning in Indy, with Jim Caldwell as his coach, did you ever get the feeling that the team fed off of Caldwell? NO...it was always Peyton running the show.
Speaking of Manning, think back to when he came out of college. Like this year, with Winston and Mariota, there were two consensus "great" QBs coming into the draft: Peyton Manning, from Tennessee, and Ryan Leaf, from Washington State. Both put up numbers and videos that made you drool as a scout; the whole world knew that Indianapolis and San Diego were going to take them one-two. What was the difference between them? Peyton Manning had a reasoned head on his shoulders. At the time (and from recent evidence, probably it's still true), Leaf didn't. The result, of course - Manning is one game short of 70,000 passing yards in his career; Leaf has been out of football for over a decade after playing just 25 games in his two year career.
Character MATTERS, most especially for a quarterback. Ndamukong Suh can have a career as a defensive lineman with a rap sheet like his; receivers can get away with murder (ooooh...sorry, Aaron Hernandez - I guess that's not literally true...). But look at the quarterbacks in the league: Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Rivers, Romo, Wilson, Kaepernick, Palmer, Smith, Ryan, Newton, Tannehill, Dalton, Flacco, Stafford... They're all upstanding citizens. The worst you can say about any of the current quarterbacks is that Jay Cutler's sullen and Ben Roethlisberger's bar habits are a little questionable. Exceptions are few and far between. Michael Vick's about the only one that comes to mind: a QB who was successful leading his team, AND had trouble with the law on a regular basis. The others who did - Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, and (we highly suspect) Johnny Manziel - didn't last long in the NFL, no matter HOW good they were in college.
We will put it in writing right now, on the day Jamies Winston was announced to be coming out for the NFL draft: he will NOT be a successful NFL quarterback. If he's starting for a team in five years, we'll be astounded. Mariota may or may not make it - NOBODY's a sure thing, no matter what they say - because of his training in a "blur offense" style that doesn't translate to NFL teams well. But we'd take him over Winston seven days a week, and twice on Sunday. (Church in the morning, games in the afternoon!)
Saturday, December 13, 2014
So...who will the NFL's Most Valuable be?
And...how do you define what that is? "Most Valuable" to whom: the team? The league? History? The coffers of the NFL?
So, let's start the conversation with THIS definition: the MVP is the player who contributes the most to his particular team's success on the field that specific year. Not "how spectacular are they?" Not "most popular". Not "award for a career's body of work", not the most surprising, and certainly not the highest selling jerseys, either. Finally, it should be the player who ADDS the most to the win total of his team: a great player whose team would go 16-0 without him adds NO value to his team, while a great player whose team STILL can't win a game also adds NO value to his team in our criteria.
Got it? Good! Here's our short list of whom to consider...
J.J. Watt, Houston. No, he's not going to win, and he probably shouldn't win. But he's probably singlehandedly won at least two games for the Texans with his two-way play, and deserves the credit he gets and then some.
Tom Brady, New England. A very viable candidate because without him, the Pats would be toast. This isn't the team that Matt Cassell could step in and go 11-5 with; a Bradyless New England is third in the division.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis. See above.
Peyton Manning, Denver. See above, except that he has so much talent on both sides of the ball this year that it's arguable that even HE isn't indispensable this year.
Russell Wilson, Seattle. A different situation than Luck or Brady: The Seahawks DO have the talent to win with most quarterbacks, but it's Wilson's leadership as much as his throwing or running ability that transform Seattle from a contender into a Super Bowl champ and (increasingly) likely repeat champ.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas. His season will indubitably be the top by a running back this year, but it's the theory of play Jason Garrett has for the Cowboys this year - don't let Romo or the defense lose the game; let the running game win it - that has Murray in the hunt.
Chip Kelly, Philadelphia. Don't laugh: how many extra wins has Kelly come up with for the Eagles this year? If he can make a winning team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's got to be in the conversation as the Most Valuable Something!
Bruce Arians, Arizona. See above, and replace Sanchez with Stanton, and then whomever he threw in after Stanton went out Thursday to beat the Rams with!
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay. And last but probably most, the likely favorite in most people's eyes may or may not be the MOST valuable under these criteria, if only because the Packers are really good anyway. Certainly, Rodgers is having an insanely good season; he doesn't even HAVE a touchdown/interception ratio at home, because you must have a non-zero number in the denominator to have a ratio, and he's something like 36:0 at Lambeau. He's very likely the Most Outstanding Player; but we're not convinced he's the most valuable to his particular team.
But we get three more weeks to examine the incoming evidence!
So, let's start the conversation with THIS definition: the MVP is the player who contributes the most to his particular team's success on the field that specific year. Not "how spectacular are they?" Not "most popular". Not "award for a career's body of work", not the most surprising, and certainly not the highest selling jerseys, either. Finally, it should be the player who ADDS the most to the win total of his team: a great player whose team would go 16-0 without him adds NO value to his team, while a great player whose team STILL can't win a game also adds NO value to his team in our criteria.
Got it? Good! Here's our short list of whom to consider...
J.J. Watt, Houston. No, he's not going to win, and he probably shouldn't win. But he's probably singlehandedly won at least two games for the Texans with his two-way play, and deserves the credit he gets and then some.
Tom Brady, New England. A very viable candidate because without him, the Pats would be toast. This isn't the team that Matt Cassell could step in and go 11-5 with; a Bradyless New England is third in the division.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis. See above.
Peyton Manning, Denver. See above, except that he has so much talent on both sides of the ball this year that it's arguable that even HE isn't indispensable this year.
Russell Wilson, Seattle. A different situation than Luck or Brady: The Seahawks DO have the talent to win with most quarterbacks, but it's Wilson's leadership as much as his throwing or running ability that transform Seattle from a contender into a Super Bowl champ and (increasingly) likely repeat champ.
DeMarco Murray, Dallas. His season will indubitably be the top by a running back this year, but it's the theory of play Jason Garrett has for the Cowboys this year - don't let Romo or the defense lose the game; let the running game win it - that has Murray in the hunt.
Chip Kelly, Philadelphia. Don't laugh: how many extra wins has Kelly come up with for the Eagles this year? If he can make a winning team with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's got to be in the conversation as the Most Valuable Something!
Bruce Arians, Arizona. See above, and replace Sanchez with Stanton, and then whomever he threw in after Stanton went out Thursday to beat the Rams with!
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay. And last but probably most, the likely favorite in most people's eyes may or may not be the MOST valuable under these criteria, if only because the Packers are really good anyway. Certainly, Rodgers is having an insanely good season; he doesn't even HAVE a touchdown/interception ratio at home, because you must have a non-zero number in the denominator to have a ratio, and he's something like 36:0 at Lambeau. He's very likely the Most Outstanding Player; but we're not convinced he's the most valuable to his particular team.
But we get three more weeks to examine the incoming evidence!
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Congratulations to our favorite quarterback!
Why wait? In the first half of the Broncos' game against the Niners tonight, Peyton Manning passed for three touchdowns, the third one to DeMarius Thomas securing the all-time passing TD record at 509 for him. Some fun tidbits...
- No smiles after the first one, or the tying one, but after the record score, he broke into as big a grin as you'll ever see from Manning on the field.
- After the score, Thomas and two other receivers played keep away from Manning... Who obviously really wanted that special football!
- Why, I don't know, since the fella from Canton was there waiting to take the ball straight to the Pro Football Hall of Fame! (He was probably very pleased that he didn't have to wait very long tonight!)
- Being gracious, previous record holder Brett Favre posted a nice tweet, the best part of which was was the hashtag, #onto600 !
- As this post was being written, Manning threw number 510, a forty-yard shot to Thomas again to start the first possession in the second half. So, the record will just keep being broken over and over again...
- Manning on the day he signed with the Broncos, with HoF QB John Elway (Denver's GM and himself seventh on the all time passing TD list at 300), who said today, "Who knows? He may double me before he's done." When Elway and the Broncos took a gamble on a 36 year old QB with severe neck injuries and who at the time no one had seen throw a ball more than a few yards, much less at an NFL standard, it's hard to think he wouldn't have been pleased with 110 TD passes in his first 38 games, an NFL record 7 TDs in a game (last year's opener), an NFL record 55 TDs last season, and the all-time NFL record for TDs at 510 (and counting). That's brave.
- Footnote: As Thunder raced across the field wit a huge flag saying "509 touchdowns!", the eight year old said, "How did they know how many would be the record?"
- No smiles after the first one, or the tying one, but after the record score, he broke into as big a grin as you'll ever see from Manning on the field.
- After the score, Thomas and two other receivers played keep away from Manning... Who obviously really wanted that special football!
- Why, I don't know, since the fella from Canton was there waiting to take the ball straight to the Pro Football Hall of Fame! (He was probably very pleased that he didn't have to wait very long tonight!)
- Being gracious, previous record holder Brett Favre posted a nice tweet, the best part of which was was the hashtag, #onto600 !
- As this post was being written, Manning threw number 510, a forty-yard shot to Thomas again to start the first possession in the second half. So, the record will just keep being broken over and over again...
- Manning on the day he signed with the Broncos, with HoF QB John Elway (Denver's GM and himself seventh on the all time passing TD list at 300), who said today, "Who knows? He may double me before he's done." When Elway and the Broncos took a gamble on a 36 year old QB with severe neck injuries and who at the time no one had seen throw a ball more than a few yards, much less at an NFL standard, it's hard to think he wouldn't have been pleased with 110 TD passes in his first 38 games, an NFL record 7 TDs in a game (last year's opener), an NFL record 55 TDs last season, and the all-time NFL record for TDs at 510 (and counting). That's brave.
- Footnote: As Thunder raced across the field wit a huge flag saying "509 touchdowns!", the eight year old said, "How did they know how many would be the record?"
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