Showing posts with label Vikings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vikings. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

UPS and DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 4!

Things are looking UP if you're a fan of young quarterbacks!
This weekend saw some very positive performances from the two start 2015 draft picks, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee and Jamies Winston in Tampa Bay! Both started for their teams, both have had glowing reports for their performances and behavior in camp (when was the last negative Winston story you've heard?), and this weekend they each demonstrated their command of the new offenses they've been hired to run. Remember, these two teams were 2-14 last year, and there are STILL a ton of problems, but they look to have the possibility of strong leadership in the pocket for a while to come. (The caveat of the dangers of injury for a scampering quarterback come into play, Right, RG3?) More exciting for us was the strong performances of Johnny Manziel in Cleveland, who looks to actually be challenging for a starting position, as does EJ Manuel in Buffalo, although in his case it's to regain it. MOST exciting, if you really think about it, is the play of Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota. He went 10-14 this weekend with a TD, and his leadership of that young Viking team is remarkable. Between him and the young coach Mike Zimmer, there are some truly amazing possibilities for a team that suddenly can combine a competent defense and a good passing game with the god-like running abilities of excoriated running back Adrian Peterson, back from suspension for child abuse. (Understand. please: I'm a teacher. I have five children myself. You do not whomp a child the way Mr. Peterson did. Having said that, he has served his punishment. Welcome him back, and let the man do the job he was trained to make a living at.)

Things are looking DOWN if you're a fan of COLLINGWOOD or ESSENDON.
There are so many good stories in the AFL - the one-two western punch of Freo and West Coast; the ascendance of the young GWS and St. Kilda clubs, the strength and stability of the traditionally erratic Richmond and North Melbourne teams, the possibility of a three-peat from the amazingly talented Hawthorn Hawks, and most excitingly, the run-and-gun style of play that's made the Western Bulldogs one of the scariest teams in the league.

But there are downsides, too, and they are mostly based in Melbourne. The Carlton Football club looks destined to have the first draft choice, so pathetic was their season. But they looked like they'd be down the ladder to begin with (Following Football had them forecast for three wins in February, and we're two weeks from being proven right). Melbourne was at the bottom of the ladder for the last several years, save for the newbie teams, and for them five wins is progress.

Collingwood and Essendon, however, should have been playing finals football this year, instead of losing games by one hundred points as a regular occurrence. For Essendon, the causes are straightforward: the drug scandal of 2012-13, where the medical staff injected players with steroids and other WADA-banned substances without the players' consent, continues to haunt the team. 34 players still do not know with certainty if they might face punitive action down the road, even if they had no part in the illegal actions for which the entire Essendon hierarchy has now lost their jobs. The other cause, frankly, is the now-fired (excuse me: "retired") head coach, James Hird, an Essendon legend as a player, who may or may not have been part of the drug plans but certainly threw gasoline on the fire over the last two years with his bizarre and inexplicable actions both on and off the field. The list of problems under his watch are far too numerous to list here, but the combination of apathy, hypocrisy, and arrogance made him a sadly comical figure by the time the end mercifully arrived Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, the Bombers played with more emotion this weekend, losing by just two points to an under manned Gold Coast team that they should've run into the ground, but who under Hird they probably would've lost to in the second quarter.

As for Collingwood, their problems are only beginning. 8-3 at the midpoint for the second season in a row, they hit a rough stretch of the season where they had to play Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port, and West Coast in a row. Not all that surprisingly, they lost all four, but were competitive in all of them...until the end of the Eagles game. Then came a game against Western, and despite being favored, they let the Bulldogs beat them. Finally, they got a break (at 8-8 and no longer in the top 8) and get to play lowly Melbourne...and lost to them by 37 points. Now it's hit the fan. They somehow manage to beat bottomfeeder Carlton, by just 18, and then give top four Sydney a run before losing 87-76 in Sydney. Great, we're back on track... until this weekend, when Richmond not only beats them, but utterly obliterates them, 147-56, and the Magpies looked like they didn't want to play. At all. Geelong is probably licking their chops right now, waiting for the Pies to show up in uniform only this weekend, uninterested in competing against the Cats. 

Both teams should lose this weekend, and then a fascinating game awaits for the last match of the season, on a Sunday afternoon on September 6th: Collingwood v Essendon, with absolutely nothing on the line - probably five or six wins apiece at that moment, so far out of finals that the game was relegated to that last time slot while all the teams who'll still be playing next week are home resting by then.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

What drives a player into retirement? Ask Brett Favre.

While some will take the headline as sensationalistic ("FAVRE SAYS HE COULD STILL PLAY IN THE NFL!!!!!!), his point is an important one in this article I've linked.

Favre's point is that even now, seven years out, he could still make the throws he used to make (minus some of the length, perhaps, "but that never matters anyway"). It's the hits that drive you from the game, he says. After a while, your body simply can't recover anymore, at least not in the six-and-a-half days between games you get.

Could we protect players more? Sure.
Could we protect them without damaging the game? Not completely, no.

The NBA is looking into lengthening the time that its 82 games take place in, to allow for fewer back-to-back games, fewer debilitating road trips that coaches feel the need to sit their starters just to preserve their bodies for the remainder of the season. 

But the CFL (a nine-team league) lost five quarterbacks during the first weekend of games alone, including the first AND second stringers from one team (Montreal). Did you pay to see the third string clipboard holder suffer through a topnotch defense? Neither did I.

If there was an easy solution, we'd already have it. The biggest question is this: where do we believe the line between safety and "the integrity of the game" is?  

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Looking through the NFL final standings,...

...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...

8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).

8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.

0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...

0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).

The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.

6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)

Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).

Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.

Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).

Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

From Gregg Easterbrook and "TMQ"...

As always, we urge you to read Tuesday Morning Quarterback, aka "TMQ", on ESPN.com every (let me guess!) Tuesday morning. Here are his ten "stats of the week"...

Stats Of The Week No. 1: At Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers is on a streak of 33 touchdown passes to zero interceptions, including playoffs.
Stats Of The Week No. 2: Atlanta, which goes to Lambeau Field on the next "Monday Night Football," is an NFL-worst .278 -- 10-26 -- in Monday games.
Stats Of The Week No. 3: Niners possession results at home versus Seattle: Punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, end of half, field goal, interception, end of game.
Stats Of The Week No. 4: After going 453 games without a punt block for a touchdown, Minnesota did it twice in the same half versus Carolina.
Stats Of The Week No. 5: Since the start of 2013, the Chiefs are 3-7 in their division, 15-4 versus all other teams, including playoffs.
Stats Of The Week No. 6: The 49ers are 1-3 in their division. In the three previous seasons, they were 13-5-1 including playoffs.
Stats Of The Week No. 7: The Raiders have not won on the road since Nov. 17, 2013.
Stats of the Week No. 8: Boise State is on a 91-4 run when playing on blue.
Stats Of The Week No. 9: Defensive end J.J. Watt has more touchdown receptions (three) than the entire Kansas City wide receiver corps (none).
Stats Of The Week No. 10: The 2-10 Buccaneers are alive for the first overall draft pick -- and also alive to win their division and host a playoff game.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Highlights of the upcoming Week 12...

Games of interest for the week of November 18-24, 2014...

RIVALRIES! North Carolina @ Duke Thursday night (Duke favored by 6-9 points), and the Kansas City Chiefs head to Oakland Raiders that night as well (KC by 8). The other big FBS rivalries are in California: Stanford @ Cal in the afternoon, and USC @ UCLA in the evening (both FF and Vegas favor the Bruins by 3, so it's a pick'em game on a neutral field!). But the really fun rivalries are in the FCS, where Saturday is the day of The Game: Yale @ Harvard (Harvard should be a 16 point favorite), as well as two classics out west: Sacramento St @ UC Davis (the Hornets are favored by one on the road) and Montana St @ Montana (the Griz should win by 4 at home). Update: upsets Thursday! Duke loses BIG, 45-20, and the Raiders beat the spread AND KC, 24-20!

CANADIAN LEAGUE CONFERENCE FINALS on Sunday! It's going to be Montreal @ Hamilton,  the rubber match of the Eastern Conference slugfest! Hamilton won the last game of the season by more than Montreal beat them earlier, thereby securing the home field for this game to determine the East's entry into the 102nd Grey Cup! We see this as a pick'em game on a neutral field, so give the Ti-Cats the edge at home by three.

Meanwhile, Edmonton earned the right to travel to Calgary for the Western Conference final, where they'll be heavy underdogs against the best team in the regular season at 15-3. We pick the Stampeders by 10 at home, but Edmonton has shown that they're the best hope of preventing Calgary from raising the Cup this year, with a pair of 9-9 teams battling for the chance to face this game's winner next week.

BACK ON THIS SIDE OF THE 49th PARALLEL, there are some great games coming up this weekend! The K-State/WVU matchup Thursday should be a lot of fun, as will Minnesota @ Nebraska on Saturday. Curiosity as to what Kansas will do at Oklahoma - can they continue the strong play of their last two (home) games? Arizona @ Utah offers a hope of some great play, as does Ole Miss @ Arkansas.

THERE ARE SOME BAD MATCH-UPS out there, too...Why are you playing FCS teams at this stage of the season, Florida? Georgia? Alabama? Auburn? For all the chest-puffing and boasting the SEC does, games like this (against Eastern Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Western Carolina, and Samford) make them look foolish and scared. Which is foolish, since they could easily schedule a lower level FBS school if they needed another bodybag game, for the pre-season! If you need a break from the admitted rigors of the SEC schedule, put a bye in there!

The worst one, however, is our old pal Savannah St, who plays their (ahem) traditional rival BYU on Saturday afternoon. Our tier system and Sagarin's ratings make this about a 55-point spread, meaning the Cougars should win by eight touchdowns. WHY? Why play this game at all? Was BYU that desperate for a game that they had to schedule the lowest level FCS team they could find? 

There are two other interesting games in the FCS: former multiple champion Youngstown St plays at current multiple champion North Dakota St (the Bison are twenty point faves), and on the other end of the scale, Towson goes to bottom-feeder Rhode Island, just about the only team lower than they are (Towson's a seven point fave).

And we CAN'T FORGET THE NFL, the league that never goes dark! Following the Adrian Peterson verdict today (out the rest of the season), it'll be interesting to see the Viking crowd reaction when Green Bay comes in Sunday and runs up fifty on them,too. Detroit's got a big challenge, going to New England the week after seeing them annihilate Indy. Miami has a great test this week too, going into Mile High to face Denver. Finally, in the spirit of the SEC, the Jacksonville Jaguars go into Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts, a 15-point favorite (a line you very rarely see in the NFL, but a very accurate one in our opinion). Pittsburgh and Carolina get the last byes of the season this week.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Pending a Steeler rout tonight, we present our Week 11 NFL rankings!

As with the college teams, we're confident enough about the progressing season to actually rank the NFL teams #1-32...

A1. Arizona Cardinals (9-1) - Hard to deny them being the favorites right now!
A2. New England Patriots (8-2) - They've now beaten all three AFC division leaders.
A3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) - Fifty points twice in a row, destroying the Eagles yesterday.
A4. Denver Broncos (7-3) - Hard for Manning to be effective throwing w/ no one 2 throw 2

B5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) - IF Romo is healthy AND DeMarco stays healthy...
B6. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
B7. Detroit Lions (7-3) - No disrespect in their loss yesterday.
B8. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) - On the other hand: where's the running game?

C9. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) - Since 0-2 start, they're on a roll...
C10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) - IF the "good Andy" shows up, they look like this...
C11. Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
C12. Miami Dolphins (6-4) - The pieces are all there: as Tannehill matures, they'll be great.

D13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
D14. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) - Give them time; if they're healthy and clicking in December...
D15. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) - See previous comment...

D16. Cleveland Browns (6-4)
E17. San Diego Chargers (6-4)

E18. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
E19. Houston Texans (5-5) - JJ WATT for PRESIDENT! But if there's only one of him...
E20. New Orleans Saints (4-6) - Yeah, but they're losing at home now...What's next?
F21. St. Louis Rams (4-6) - #21 with a bullet: Jeff Fisher's got them looking good!

F22. Chicago Bears (4-6) - Roll the D20 for Cutler's performance: good, mediocre, or AAH!
F23. New York Giants (4-6)
F24. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) - Of the four NFC South disasters, they have the most potential.
G25. Carolina Panthers (3-7-1)
G26. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) - If they can get even mediocre play from Bridgewater...

G27. Washington Redskins (3-7)
G28. Tennessee Titans (2-7)
H29. New York Jets (2-8)

H30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8)
H31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
H32. Oakland Raiders (0-10) - For a team on a 16 game losing streak, they're ALWAYS competitive. Anytime there's a spread of more than two TDs, take it: they'll cover. They won't WIN...but they'll cover.

Sunday, November 9, 2014

We suffer from "premature tiering"!

Even with 1 1/2 games to go this weekend, we're ready to separate the NFL into eight tiers after Week Ten, although the gaps at the top are rather narrow!

Bottom Four: We're promoting the Jets after their upset win over the Steelers, which leaves us the Raiders, Jaguars, Bucs, and Titans.

Next Four Up: Four teams with moments of glory and weeks of misery - the Rams, Jets, Falcons, and Bears.

Tier Six: Four mediocre, non-descript teams on the field with interesting issues off it - the Vikings (Adrian Peterson), Redskins (RG3), Texans (JJWatt the celebrity), and the NYG (they're in New York).

Tier Five: These four teams seem to be good, and yet... they're still the Saints, Niners, Panthers, and Bills.

Tier Four: Now, we're in the upper half of the league, and these four teams could very well be in the playoffs in nine weeks - or not? Consistency! We'll just have to see what happens with the Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Chargers.

Tier AFC North: Literally. How do you separate the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens right now? Arguably, they may not be teams #9-12, but they belong together until someone makes a move (one direction or the other!).

Top Eight, Subdivided: The divisions here are a bit muddy, but let's see what makes sense - certainly the Cardinals and Broncos are up there, and the next two teams, Patriots and Packers, may or may not be below them. The Colts, Cowboys, and Eagles all sit very snugly up there next to them, and if we have to choose a number eight, the 7-2 Lions would probably be there. But these are the eight best in the league right now; interestingly, five are from the NFC and three from the AFC (but seven of our next eight are, too!).

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Don't blame US if the pro tiers for Week 8 are imbalanced!

Blame the teams! We literally gave up trying to make the number of teams in each tier balance and went back to our guiding principle: Put teams that would play even games on a neutral field in the same tier. That means the chart looks more like a bell-curve than a flat line, but so be it! By the end of the season, it'll straighten itself out!

So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...

Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)

Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...

Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)

Quintile C is the middle of the pack:

Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)

Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...

Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)

Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:

Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)

Monday, October 6, 2014

NFL WEEK 5 Tiers adjusted

So, unlike the college weekend from bedlam, the NFL fell true to form (within reason!). Using the Vegas odds as our guide for predictions (never for gambling purposes, please!), only two games were technically upsets, and you could've easily made a case for Buffalo (17-14 last-minute victors over Detroit) and the revved-for-blood Patriots (who obliterated the undefeated Cardinals by four TDs in front of a Roman Coliseum crowd!) as favorites!

So, the changes in quartiles after Week 5: Dallas and the Colts move up to the Top Quartile, while Detroit and the Ravens drop in parallel; Buffalo and New England move from the Third to the Second Quartiles, knocking Atlanta and the Chiefs down a peg; and finally Cleveland moves off the Bottom up to the Third, with the Vikings resuming their rightful place in the lower eight.

HERE ARE YOUR WEEK FIVE NFL QUARTILES...

Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.

Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England and San Francisco.

Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.

Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.

(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; it's far too early and pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)