Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts

Sunday, November 8, 2015

College football rankings following Week 10 - FBS

Here are the updated Following Football ACNC tiers and rankings for the FBS teams following the games of November 3-7...Alabama takes over the #1 spot, despite their early season loss to Mississippi State - and if that's a problem for you, ask yourself what the betting odds would look like were they to play any of the undefeated teams on a neutral field! (They were 6 1/2 point favorites against #1 LSU Saturday - and justified it in spades!). In fact, three of our four playoff teams have a loss, but more important is how you're playing NOW. Big movers include OU, moving up from #9; Stanford (#11 to #5), North Carolina (from #28 to #21); falling somewhat were LSU (just to #7) and TCU (to #13).

Notice that we've now ranked ALL 128 teams, all the way down to our Bottom Eight, with Eastern Michigan at the very bottom, losing to almost-equally pathetic Miami of Ohio.


FF tier Team Conf CfRec OvRec
A1 Alabama secW 5 1 8 1
A2 Clemson accA 6 0 9 0
A3 Notre Dame ind
  8 1
A4 Oklahoma b12 5 1 8 1
B5 Stanford pacN 7 0 8 1
B6 Ohio St b10e 5 0 9 0
B7 LSU secW 4 1 7 1
B8 Oklahoma St b12 6 0 9 0
B9 Baylor b12 5 0 8 0
C10 Mississippi St secW 3 2 7 2
C11 Iowa b10w 5 0 9 0
C12 Florida secE 6 1 8 1
C13 TCU b12 5 1 8 1
C14 Utah pacS 5 1 8 1
C15 Michigan b10e 4 1 7 2
D16 Michigan St b10e 4 1 8 1
D17 UCLA pacS 4 2 7 2
D18 Ole Miss secW 4 2 7 3
D19 Temple aacE 5 0 8 1
D20 Georgia secE 4 3 6 3
E21 North Carolina accC 5 0 8 1
E22 Houston aacW 5 0 9 0
E23 Florida St accA 5 2 7 2
E24 Auburn secW 2 4 5 4
E25 Texas A&M secW 3 3 6 3
E26 Navy aacW 5 0 7 1
E27 Wisconsin b10w 5 1 8 2
F28 Memphis aacW 4 1 8 1
F29 USC pacS 4 2 6 3
F30 Toledo macW 4 1 7 1
F31 BYU ind
  7 2
G32 North Carolina St accA 2 3 6 3
G33 Arkansas secW 3 2 5 4
G34 Oregon pacN 4 2 6 3
G35 Boise St mwM 4 1 7 2
G36 Northwestern b10w 3 2 7 2
G37 Tennessee secE 3 3 5 4
G38 Northern Illinois macW 4 1 6 3
G39 Washington pacN 2 4 4 5
G40 Virginia Tech accC 2 3 4 5
G41 Western Kentucky cusaE 6 0 8 2
G42 Bowling Green macE 5 0 7 2
G43 Duke accC 3 2 6 3
H44 Pitt accC 4 1 6 3
H45 Louisville accA 4 2 5 4
H46 West Virginia b12 1 4 4 4
H47 Louisiana Tech cusaW 5 1 7 3
H48 California pacN 2 4 5 4
H49 Appalachian St sun 4 1 7 2
H50 Miami-FL accC 3 2 6 3
I51 Washington St pacN 4 2 6 3
I52 Georgia Tech accC 1 5 3 6
I53 Minnesota b10w 1 4 4 5
I54 Cincinnati aacE 2 3 5 4
I55 Penn St b10e 4 2 7 3
I56 Vanderbilt secE 1 4 3 6
I57 Kansas St b12 0 5 3 5
I58 Arizona St pacS 2 4 4 5
I59 Missouri secE 1 5 4 5
J60 Kentucky secE 2 5 4 5
J61 Texas b12 3 3 4 5
J62 Western Michigan macW 5 0 5 3
J63 Texas Tech b12 2 5 5 5
J64 Arizona pacS 2 5 5 5
J65 San Diego St mwW 5 0 6 3
J66 South Carolina secE 1 6 3 6
J67 Nebraska b10w 2 4 4 6
K68 Arkansas St sun 5 0 6 3
K69 Illinois b10w 2 3 5 4
K70 Indiana b10e 0 5 4 5
K71 Central Michigan macW 4 1 5 4
K72 Air Force mwM 4 1 6 3
K73 South Florida aacE 3 2 5 4
K74 Boston College accA 0 7 3 7
L75 East Carolina aacE 2 4 4 6
L76 Georgia Southern sun 4 1 6 2
L77 Iowa St b12 2 4 3 6
L78 Marshall cusaE 5 1 8 2
L79 Southern Miss cusaW 4 1 6 3
L80 U Conn aacE 3 3 5 5
L81 Utah St mwM 4 2 5 4
M82 Middle Tennessee cusaE 3 2 4 5
M83 Virginia accC 2 3 3 6
N84 Purdue b10w 1 4 2 7
N85 Akron macE 2 3 4 5
N86 Syracuse accA 1 4 3 6
N87 Wake Forest accA 1 5 3 6
N88 Tulsa aacW 2 3 5 4
N89 Colorado pacS 1 5 4 6
O90 Maryland b10e 0 5 2 7
O91 Rutgers b10e 1 5 3 6
O92 Ohio macE 2 3 5 4
O93 Nevada mwW 3 2 5 4
O94 Buffalo macE 3 2 5 4
O95 Colorado St mwM 2 3 4 5
P96 UNLV mwW 2 3 3 6
P97 San Jose St mwW 3 2 4 5
P98 Oregon St pacN 0 6 2 7
Q099 New Mexico mwM 3 2 5 4
Q100 Troy sun 2 3 3 6
Q101 UL-Lafayette sun 3 1 4 4
Q102 Rice cusaW 2 3 4 5
Q103 Florida International cusaE 3 3 5 5
Q104 SMU aacW 0 5 1 8
R105 Tulane aacW 1 5 2 7
R106 Ball St macW 2 4 3 7
R107 Florida Atlantic cusaE 2 4 2 7
S108 Idaho sun 2 4 3 6
S109 Kent St macE 2 3 3 6
S110 Hawai'i mwW 0 6 2 8
S111 New Mexico St sun 2 3 2 7
T112 Texas St sun 1 3 2 6
T113 South Alabama sun 2 2 4 4
T114 Old Dominion cusaE 2 3 4 5
T115 Fresno St mwW 1 5 2 7
T116 U Massachusetts macE 0 5 1 8
U117 Kansas b12 0 6 0 9
U118 Wyoming mwM 1 5 1 9
U119 Army ind
  2 7
U120 UTEP cusaW 2 3 4 5
U121 Miami-OH macE 1 5 2 8
U122 North Texas cusaW 1 5 1 8
U123 UT-San Antonio cusaW 1 4 1 8
V124 Georgia St sun 1 3 2 6
V125 UNC-Charlotte cusaE 0 6 2 7
V126 Central Florida aacE 0 6 0 10
V127 UL-Monroe sun 0 5 1 8
W128 Eastern Michigan macW 0 6 1 9 

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

UPS and DOWNS for Tuesday, the first week of November!

As the college football playoff committee puts out its rankings tonight, and Following Football has done the same over the last two days for all 285 pro and college teams we cover, it's a great time to look at which teams have had a surprisingly UP season, and which ones have been startlingly DOWN...

WHO'S UP? Well, what about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers? Everyone who saw both of them at 7-0 starting November raise your hands. OK, we've identified the liars in the room...

WHO'S DOWN? It's not hard to find struggling teams in the NFL, but a couple we saw in the playoffs last year are the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions. Tough schedule, sure - close games, yes - but somewhere in there, you've got to stand up and win a couple of those games.

WHO'S UP? Three "usual suspects": the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots. Remarkable to watch Peyton be Peyton again, but Rodgers and Brady have left no doubt that they're still at the top of their games. And all three have defenses to get them the ball.

WHO'S DOWN? Again, who do you expect? The Tennessee Titans, of course, who just fired another coach...the Cleveland Browns, who continue to put up with Manziel for some odd reason...the Chicago Bears weren't expected to do much, and still haven't lived up to expectations... and even with their shiny new QB, the Tampa Bay Bucs are barely better than they were at this point last year.

WHO'S UP? There are signs of life in Oakland...in Minnesota...in Atlanta...in St. Louis. Parity is always the stated goal of the NFL admin, but what you really want is the feeling as a fan base that any year could be THE YEAR!

WHO'S DOWN? When you've got a fan base like the Sasktachewan RoughRiders do, arguably the best in the Canadian Football League, and you were expecting to be contending for the Grey Cup, when you were right on the heels of the eventual champion Calgary Stampeders all season...and you go a miserable two and fifteen heading into the final week of the season...yeah, the green is blue this year. The Riders were actually eliminated from playoff contention six weeks ago...in a league where 2/3 of the teams make the playoffs. THAT'S impressive in its badness.

WHO'S UP? When you went 2-16 last year in your first campaign as an expansion franchise, you can be forgiven if a successful second season in your mind was, say, six wins. Looking at the two expansion clubs in the AFL (Gold Coast and GWS), they went through about that - two bad years, then two mediocre years. But instead, the Ottawa RedBlacks are one win away from an Eastern Division championship in their second year - already guaranteed a winning record at 11-6, all they need to do is win OR not lose by more than five points at home on Saturday to the Hamilton Ti-Cats...not the first choice of opponents in this situation, especially since it's the Ti-Cats who will earn the title if you fail. But just to have this opportunity in your sophomore campaign! CONGRATULATIONS, OTTAWA!

WHO'S DOWN? My attention span for Canadian football once the American season hit full steam in late September. It was frustrating, because I knew I didn't have the time or energy to stay abreast of every single thing in the NFL, NCAA, and the CFL - and as the footy season was reaching its climax down under, it was the mid-to-late weeks of the Canadian season that got the short shrift. To our readers, I apologize. But of course, all we can do is our best, and we'll continue to do that for you.

WHO'S UP? At the moment, we have our top four "theoretically playoff bound" FBS teams (in the humble opinion of Following Football ACNC!) - LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame. To most observers we've heard, the first two names are almost indisputable at the moment (things change quickly in college football, though!), and the other two could be replaced by any of close to a dozen teams: TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Michigan St, Ohio St, Florida, Stanford, Iowa, Utah, even Memphis or Toledo. (Probably not Idaho, though.)

WHO'S DOWN? Which teams thought they'd be in the mix at this point and aren't? There are some obvious candidates: Georgia, Auburn, Oregon, USC, Tennessee, There are some others whose fan bases might have thought it feasible - but that's another story.

WHO'S UP? There are some remarkable positive stories this fall of teams who weren't expected to fare as successfully as they have, as there are every year. That doesn't make them any less worth applauding: Florida (new head coach Jim McElwain has them sitting at #7 on the Following Football ranking at the moment; finished the 2014 season at #34), Michigan (Harbaugh took a team who finished at #67 last year, bottom half of the FBS, and has them at #14 right now), Houston (up from #69 last year to an undefeated 8-0 at #21 and looking at a possible New Year's bowl); and Temple (similar story arc, moving from #79 to current #22, having just taken Notre Dame to the brink). There are lower eschelon stories as well: Southern Miss moved from tier S up to its current tier L; Tulsa has bounded from tier T up to tier N this year. Vanderbilt from tier R up to its present place in tier I; and Northwestern, who beat Stanford to start the year, Duke for its only legitimate defeat (ahem, Miami), and moved from last year's tier M and #78 all the way into tier G and position #35.

WHO'S DOWN? And then... there are the sob stories. The ones you tsk tsk about behind their backs. The ones who (in your opinion) deserve a bad year every once in a while... How about Texas? Charlie Strong's first year looked promising! But with a blowout, embarrassing loss to Notre Dame (well, ok), embarrassing near-misses against California and OK State (hmmm...), a bad loss at TCU (eww...), a surprise win in the Shootout (hey! Maybe...) followed by definitive losses to two foes they used to pick their teeth with the last two weeks: K-State and Iowa State. Read that again. Iowa State! The Texas offense was not only shut out, they never got past the ISU 40 yard line.

But that pales next to Nebraska, who fired a coach who gave them nine wins a season every year - AGAIN. A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich because he wasn't Tom Osborne. The man they hired to replace him...was no Frank Solich. Disaster - they didn't even make .500! In desperation, they brought in NU guy Bo Pelini - colorful, successful, nine wins a season, just like Solich (who went on to be one of the most successful coaches in MAC history). Seven years of Pelini NOT being Tom Osborne was enough for the faithful, and they brought in Mike Riley, a very nice man with a mediocre program at Oregon State, who has produced a mediocre program at Nebraska, finding exciting ways to lose close games to good teams and sometimes to bad teams like Purdue last weekend.

South Carolina was doing badly enough that the Head Ball Coach simply walked away into retirement. Central Florida saw the same story with Head Resume Inflator in the lead walking role. Whether the story ends the same way at Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer's last year remains to be seen. It looks like Minnesota's going to be hanged if they allow Jerry Kill's epilepsy-induced retirement to end the same way, thankfully.

WHAT'S NEXT? Who knows? And isn't that the beauty of football? It's the best reality show there is - all the drama, the competition, the tension of the staged TV events, except it's actual reality! There IS no script! Maybe Texas turns it around! Maybe Florida nosedives the rest of the way! Maybe Jim Harbaugh takes Michigan to four miraculous victories against Ohio State, Iowa in the B1G title game, the semifinal and the NC game, and the Blue rule the nation! Or...just as unlikely...maybe they lose every game from here on out, including a 59-0 shutout by the Buckeyes. That's the point - we can't know ahead of time! So sit back, turn on the TV, go to a game if you're close enough, and enjoy the ride!

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Our first rankings, ahead of the CFP committee's Tuesday:

It's time to start breaking down our tiers into rankings, as the NCAA College Football Playoff committee prepares for ITS first rankings on Tuesday evening. Here are our top 35 FBS teams after Week 9 of the 2015 season:

Tier A) 1. LSU (7-0). 2. Clemson (8-0). 3. Alabama (7-1). 4. Notre Dame (7-1). 5. TCU (7-0).
Tier B) 6. Michigan St (8-0). 7. Florida (7-1). 8. Ohio St (8-0).  9. Oklahoma (7-1). 10. Baylor (8-0). 11. Stanford (7-1).
Tier C) 12. Iowa (8-0). 13. Ole Miss (7-2). 14. Michigan (6-2). 15. Texas A&M (6-2). 16. Utah (7-1). 17. Mississippi St (6-2).
Tier D) 18. Oklahoma St (8-0). 19. Memphis (8-0). 20. Toledo (7-0). 21. Houston (8-0). 22. Temple (7-1).
Tier E) 23. UCLA (6-2). 24. Florida St (7-1). 25. BYU (6-2). 26. Wisconsin (7-2). 27. Georgia (5-3).
Tier F) 28. North Carolina (7-1). 29. USC (5-3). 30. Appalachian St (7-1). 31. Duke (6-2).
Tier G) 32. Tennessee (4-4). 33. Navy (6-1). 34. Boise St (7-2). 35. Northwestern (7-2). 36. California (5-3). 37. Auburn (4-4).

Tier H) Pitt, Miami-Fl, West Virginia, Oregon, Arizona St, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green.
Tier I) Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Kansas St, Kentucky, Missouri, Northern Illinois.
Tier J) Texas Tech, Washington St, Arizona, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Cincinnati, Marshall, San Diego St.
Tier K) Boston College, Indiana, Iowa St, Texas, East Carolina, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Air Force, Utah St.
Tier L) Purdue, Nebraska, South Florida, U Conn, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern.
Tier M) Syracuse, Virginia, Illinois, Arkansas St.
Tier N) Wake Forest, Colorado, Tulsa, Ohio, Akron.
Tier O) Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon St, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo.
Tier P) Rice, Colorado St, Nevada, UNLV.
Tier Q) SMU, FIU, Ball St, San Jose St, UL-Lafayette.
Tier R) Tulane, FAU, New Mexico, Texas St, Troy.
Tier S) Kent St, Idaho, Hawaii, Fresno St.

And the Bottom Sixteen...

Tier T) 113. U Mass (1-7). 114. Kansas (0-8). 115. South Alabama (3-4). 116. Old Dominion (3-5). 117. Wyoming (1-8).
Tier U) 118. Army-West Point (2-6). 119. UT-San Antonio (1-7). 120. New Mexico St (1-7). 121. North Texas (1-7). 122. UL-Monroe (1-7).
Tier V) 123. Miami-OH (1-8). 124. UTEP (3-5). 125. Georgia St (2-5). 126. Charlotte (2-6). 127. Eastern Michigan (1-8). 128. Central Florida (0-9).

As for Top Eights, the Power Five conferences hold the first eight spots above, while the Top Eight for the Group Of Five conferences (pivotal for bowl placement) are as follows right now:
1. Memphis (#19) - 2. Toledo (#20) - 3. Houston (#21) - 4. Temple (#22) - 5. BYU (#25) - 6. Appalachian St (#30) - 7. Navy (#33) - 8. Boise St (#34). 

And the Bottom Fives? Well, all of Tier V comes from the Group Of Five conferences, so there's your bottom five there (UTEP through UCF). As for the Power Five conferences, here are their Bottom Five:
1. Kansas (tier T) - 2. Maryland (tier O) - 3. Rutgers (tier O) - 4. Oregon St (tier O) - 5. Wake Forest (tier N). 

Rankings for the FCS teams and the NFL will come out in the next 24 hours or so...

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

UPS and DOWNS for the Second Week of September, 2015!

DOWNS - your blogger, who's been a day off all week...not because of Labor Day per se, but because he was waiting for the results of the Ohio St/VaTech game Monday night before moving on into the next week...only to then be a day behind! I'll try to make it up by getting our Prophecies column out later today!

DOWNS - the Texas Longhorn football team, who in its last three games has looked nothing like the Burnt Orange Machine of old. The loss Saturday night was almost as devastating as the humiliation to Arkansas in its bowl game last winter, where the Longhorns had one TD drive of 43 yards (two good plays), and a game-total of 25 net yards - meaning that excluding one drive towards the end of the first half, Texas had negative 18 yards of offense for the game. In fact, over the last three games, the Texas offense has been outscored by the opponents' defenses 21-20!

UPS - Temple, who beat Penn St 27-10; Northwestern, who beat Stanford 16-6, and Illinois, who overcame its coaching mess to beat Kent St 52-3. All three have far brighter prospects today than they did a week ago!

UPS - the Canadian rivalries between Calgary/Edmonton, Saskatchewan/Winnipeg, and Toronto/Hamilton. CFL scheduling is a hoot! All three pairs of rivals play home-and-home series over last weekend and this one, building a chance for animosity, bragging rights, fights, and twice as many reasons as usual to hate the other team! Going into this second weekend, let's see if Edmonton, Winnipeg, or Toronto can manage to even the scales at home!

UPS AND DOWNS - it's too early for any adjustments in our Top Eights or Bottom Fives, but here's a sneak peek at the college teams we pushed towards the "first among equals" status on one end, and the "isn't there a tier lower than this?" on the other...
POWER FIVE CONFERENCES: Alabama, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all looked remarkable this weekend! Meanwhile, Washington St and Colorado lost to middling-to-poor lower level teams (Portland St and Hawai'i, respectively) and don't appear to have improved as much as we'd hoped...i.e., at all.
GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES: While Boise St would probably still be sitting atop this group for now, their second half was not impressive, even given the Pac-12 opponent. More impressive were the wins by Western Kentucky (against a vastly improved Vanderbilt), Appalachian St, Temple and Houston of the AAC, and we'll count BYU in this group for now on the strength of its Hail Mary victory at Nebraska. (Speaking of which, don't skip the last UP today!) Downs to the usual candidates: Idaho, Georgia St (lost to newbie Charlotte 23-20), Kent St and Tulane.
FCS CHAMPIONSHIP CONFERENCES: Southern Utah absolutely should have a win over Utah St under its belt today - they dominated the Aggies on defense (13 USU punts!) and were it not for USU's special teams (a blocked XP converted on the other end, and a 4th quarter punt return), Southern wins easily. Credit to the Missouri Valley Conference and Big Sky schools, of course, winning in FBS stadia - South Dakota St, Portland St, and North Dakota. Jacksonville's victory over Chattanooga spoke highly of the OVC. On the down side, the Colonial Athletic Association went 2-9, and it would've been ten losses had Stony Brook's game with Toledo not been cancelled before halftime with Toledo already up 16-7.
HBC CONFERENCES: Alas, off to a bad start at 6-17 across the board, and the six wins included four against lower division opponents and two against each other (Prairie View def Texas Southern; Ark-Pine Bluff lost to South Carolina State).

And finally, UPS to the Mangum family of Eagle, Idaho, who were in Pocatello watching one son make the catch of the day (according to ESPN, who made it Top Ten Play #2) for Idaho State, and were alerted that their other son was in at QB for BYU after the starter was injured, and saw him throw a Hail Mary to the end zone which gave the Cougars the 33-28 win in Nebraska - and was ESPN's Top Ten Play #1 for the day! "What are the odds?" said Dad, "We're just going to enjoy it for now!" This weekend, one parent's headed back to Pocatello and the other to Provo, so they can watch both sons play!

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Weekend Wesults fur ze furst veek oon September, ya!

Hey, what an exciting weekend (so far)! What looked like a boring week in Australia ended up with a handful of routs and a handful of upsets - and telling them apart in advance was impossible! Sure, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast and Richmond followed the script and routed their opponents by a combined 230 points...but Port Adelaide ended up playing the Peel Thunder feeder team, rather than the parent club Fremantle, and won by well over ten goals; Brisbane and Essendon surprised and pulled off narrow upsets in close games; GWS apparently took the last week off once they were out of the playoff race and Melbourne walked all over them; and most dramatically, Geelong found their championship pride to end the run of nine straight years in the finals and three titles, sending three of their retirees off with pride in a fourth quarter rout of finals-bound Adelaide.

In the CFL, BC upset Montreal 25-20 Friday; the other games are still coming up here on Labor Day weekend. 

Now, here's the opening weekend of Division I college football! In descending order of interest...
*BYU won at Nebraska (in front of a full house, as with every Nebraska game since 1962!) on a Hail Mary from a backup QB on the last play!
*Alabama looked dominant again, discovering Jake Coker as QB and whomping Wisconsin, 35-17.
*Northwestern shut down ranked Stanford 16-6, much to everybody's surprise. 
*Texas A&M looked remarkable in defeating ranked Arizona State 38-17. (Our pastor's happy!)
*Notre Dame looks even better, annihilating Texas 38-3 (it wasn't that close).
*Utah did what they were supposed to, defeating Michigan in Harbaugh's debut, and giving the Pac-12 a good win.
*But elsewhere in the state, Utah State looked terrible against FCS Southern Utah, winning 12-9, but only when Andrew Rodriguez bailed them out on punt number 25 for the day by running it back 88 yards after a day of no offense and five points. (Wyoming, Army, Washington St, Kansas, and Vanderbilt weren't so lucky, losing to FCS opponents in their openers - admittedly, the last two were 'supposed' to lose. Wyoming's loss, to middling FCS North Dakota 24-13, was the worst of the lot)
*Two match-ups of bottom feeders had interesting results: First-timers Kennesaw St started their existence as a football school with a 56-16 defeat of fellow novices East Tennessee St. But the devastating loss was by Georgia State, #128 out of 128 on the FOLLOWING FOOTBALL rankings in 2014, who thought they had easy pickings against FBS novice Charlotte... who were 23-20 victors in the Georgia Dome. Panthers fans were absolutely besides themselves on social media, excoriating their football team's lack of improvement over their four years in FBS.

Other scores of interest in the FF universe: 
Auburn over Louisville, 31-24...South beat North, 17-13, in the battle of the Carolinas...Indiana held off Southern Illinois 48-47: lower Big Ten versus upper Missouri Valley? That score's about right...TCU edged Minnesota 23-17 (we had the Gophers winning, but they came close)... Oklahoma struggled but won over Central Michigan, 24-13...Boise St scored 16 in the first half, Washington scored 13 in the second half and missed a last minute FG to lose by three...Temple "upset" Penn St (we bet Temple on our sheet!) 27-10...Arizona struggled with UTSA, just like last year, but won 42-32...Hawai'i over Colorado 28-20...Arkansas St and Georgia Southern both laid eggs against Power Five opponents, while Appalachian St won 49-0 against FCS Howard...After their big win against NDSU on national TV last week, Montana gave up a last second FG of their own last night to Cal Poly SLO, losing 20-19...Toledo/Stony Brook and LSU/McNeese St were both stormed out; Georgia cut its victory over UL-Monroe short because of the weather...Mostly disappointing day for the Colonial AA, going 2-9 for the weekend. William&Mary and James Madison deserved to celebrate their victories, and Towson can cheer a "good loss" to powerful East Carolina by just eight...Coastal Carolina, who announced they'll be moving to FBS next year in the Sun Belt, didn't show much muscle in beating Furman 38-35 (they were favored by 23 in Sagarin). But the Sun Belt doesn't require much muscle, either...Jacksonville State may be the class of the Ohio Valley, defeating highly-regarded Chattanooga 23-20...Not a lot to cheer about in the HBC ranks, though, with results like Grambling State's 73-14 loss at Cal-Berkeley on the board. Even our favorite team, Savannah State, failed to make headlines despite their near-complete incompetence in losing to Colorado State 65-13; Davidson managed to "downstage" them with a zero-to-69 drubbing from fellow FCS Citadel.

NEW TIERS POSTED TOMORROW in what is our regular Monday ratings feature. See you then! 
 

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL for the 1st Weekend of September, 2015

It's finally here! The first slate of American football games hits the airwaves tomorrow night, and from here until January we'll have solid football available to us every five-day weekend (and even a few Tuesdays and Wednesdays in November, thanks to the MAC)! We'll keep track of our projections and predictions so you can keep us honest, just like we have for Aussie footy (138-50 so far this season straight up, 110-78 against the spread) and Canadian football (23-19 so far, in a season where the oddsmakers themselves are under .500!). Alas, we're already zero-and-one in college football, having forecast the defending champions to win in Missoula last weekend, when the Grizzlies came from behind in the last seconds to win. While we were personally happy to see UM victorious...it still goes in our loss column. Luckily, we NEVER bet money, and we don't recommend you use our prognostications to bet money, either! Gambling is an addiction for too many people, and if you're one of those for whom it becomes a slippery slope, don't even touch the betting window. These predictions are for entertainment purposes only.

Let's get the internationals out of the way first...

AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.

CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.

As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.

NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...

Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.

There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:

North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.

Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!

Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up. 

Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...

Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern,  and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.) 

There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).

Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin. 

Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.

There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention  a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.

(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)

Thursday, August 20, 2015

THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA

Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!

Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky! 

Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:

A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...


AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indianapolis
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC West: Seattle

Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.

The other division winners are projected as follows: 
AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)
 AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)
NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)
NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).

Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:

AFC playoff teams                                                     NFC playoff teams
1. Indianapolis (#3 overall)                                          1. Green Bay (#1 overall)
2. New England (#4 overall)                                        2. Seattle (#2 overall)
[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]
3. Denver (#5 overall)                                                  3. Dallas (#6 overall)
4. Baltimore (#8 overall)                                              4. Carolina (#14 overall)
5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall)                                             5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)
6. Cincinnati (#11 overall)                                            6. Arizona (#10 overall)
[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]
Below those teams...
7. Miami (#12 overall)                                                  7. New Orleans (#17 overall)
[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]
8. Kansas City (#13 overall)                                         8. Minnesota (#18 overall)
9. Buffalo (#15 overall)                                                9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)
10. San Diego (#16 overall)                                         10. Detroit (#21 overall)
11. Houston (#20 overall)                                            11. Atlanta (#22 overall)
12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall)                                12. St. Louis (#23 overall)
13. Jacksonville (#28 overall)                                      13. San Francisco (#24 overall)
14. Cleveland (#30 overall)                                          14. Chicago (#26 overall)
15. Oakland (#31 overall)                                             15. Washington (#27 overall)
16. Tennessee (#32 overall)                                         16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)

Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?

As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...

Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:

Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game
Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)
Alabama (8.5 to 1)
TCU (9 to 1)
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)

From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!] 

Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!