AFL update

Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...

North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.

In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).

On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:

Lance Franklin					SYD		148
Patrick Dangerfield					GEEL		146
Luke Parker					SYD		126
Jarrad Waite					NMK		101
Tom J Lynch					GCS		98
Joel Selwood					GEEL		97
Dan Hannebury					SYD		92
Max Gawn					MEL		92
Lachie Hunter					WB		90
Rory Sloane					ADE		90

Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!

As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...). 

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Responsibility and Integrity of the Game

What is the responsibility of a team to put out its best players for a regular season game, even when it's not otherwise in their best interest to do so?

It seems to happen in a game or two every year, regardless of sport. End of season, one team with something to play for, the other not so much - either because they've got their playoff spot locked up, or they're just biding their time having already been eliminated. (You see it in the NBA mid-year sometimes, when a coach will rest older stars after a tough stretch of games.) Does the second team have an obligation to put a competitive team out there in such a game - either "for the paying customers" or, more usually, "for the integrity of the game"?

As the last round of the AFL season approaches this weekend, there are a couple of games in which this very question arises. Fremantle, having already locked up home field advantage, has no statistical reason to play its stars, and every motivation to rest them for next week's critical opening playoff game. As many as ten of its best players may sit out Saturday's game against ninth place Port Adelaide; fortunately, this game ended up having no bearing on playoff positions, as Port cannot break into the top eight under any circumstances. It did change the betting line from a fairly even game in Adelaide to the current line of almost fifty points in Port's favor, though. Oddly, where it's going to have an impact is in the WAFL, where Fremantle's "minor league feeder team", the Peel Thunder, plays. Peel is in its opening playoff round this weekend...but needs to supply up to ten players to the Dockers to fill out their roster against Port, leaving it undermanned in a playoff game. Business is business, but that seems terribly unfair to the team you've partnered with!

The more punitive scenario this week happens in Melbourne, where Friday's Richmond/North Melbourne match has been sullied (my words) by North's decision to rest up to ten of ITS players this weekend in anticipation of playing the Tigers again next week in an elimination final. By essentially conceding this game (and foregoing, by the way, the potential possibility of moving up as high as sixth if Western were to lose big, and therefore earning a home game themselves!), North has also prevented the Adelaide Crows from the possibility of passing Richmond and thus earning themselves a home game next week, a fact which has the Crows management understandably incensed. The Kangaroos' defense hinges on the fact that they've had two short weeks of preparation in a row (Sunday to Saturday, Saturday to Friday) and the players have been impacted by that: a defensible argument, admittedly. Broadcaster and retired superstar Wayne Carey sported a frightening thought on afl.com.au's "Pick A Winner" broadcast Thursday:

"The Kangaroos now can put in 8-10 players that are not going to play finals footy. They can go out and maim Richmond players," Carey said on AFL.com.au's Pick A Winner.

"They can go hard, they can be told by Brad Scott 'Go out there, hit this side as hard as you can, because it looks like we'll be playing them again next week'.

"I think the AFL really opened up a can of worms here and watch this space."

Carey said the Roos resting players was "a completely different situation" to minor premiers Fremantle sparing up to 11 regular players a final round trip to face Port Adelaide, because the Dockers-Power clash won't affect finals positions.

"Whereas I think this does manipulate where the Kangaroos and obviously the Tigers and Adelaide (finish), so it does have some bearing on the finals," Carey said.

"This rule has to change, because now the one game that had something riding on it all of a sudden has been manipulated by resting players."

(By the way, Carey was a North Melbourne player himself, so this isn't about bias...)

Another situation that happens along these lines is whether or not bottom of the ladder teams need to play their top line players at the end of the season when competing against sides that have "something to play for" or, as is generally accepted, run some youngsters through the mill after their own elimination from contention to see what the potential is for next year and beyond. Very few people question that use of a roster, and in fact if your first team isn't getting the job done, it's often the case that injecting that fresh blood into the lineup will improve the performance of the team anyway!

But what if you're in a system (like virtually every major professional sport is) where your draft order is determined by the reverse order of finish? Doesn't it behoove teams like Brisbane, Carlton, and Gold Coast in the AFL to lose as many games as they can to secure the highest draft position they can? In America, it's the NBA which has suffered under the strongest perception of this tanking prospect (I can think of 76 situations off the top of my head...). and it's what drove the league into the lottery system thirty years ago - a solution which hasn't solved the problem. To their credit, it's hard to make an argument that any of the three AFL teams named has overtly tanked this last month or so - they're just not very good, to be honest. But how do you draw the line?

It brings to mind the high school basketball tournament where both teams tried to lose a game at the same time to avoid playing the top seeded team...and if you click on the link, you'll see just how comical it got. Justifiably, both teams were suspended and removed from the tournament.

But it goes back to sportsmanship, and how you choose to answer the question, "What do we as a team owe the sport, owe the league, and owe our own integrity?"

It seems everyone has a different answer. Many people feel completely justified in the Al Davis / Oakland Raiders approach, "Just Win, Baby!"...which, ironically, doesn't always include the need to try to win; as long as you're doing what's in YOUR best interest, that's all that matters.

I disagree.

There's a risk any time you take the field, yes, but you cannot "turn it on and off" like a switch - ask the Manning Colts in those years when they ran up those 13-1 records and coasted the last couple of games...and proceeded to lose game one of the playoffs to a team who was still in competition mode. If you have legitimately injured players, by all means, rest them. But NEVER tell your players to give less than their best on the field - that's when injuries occur. If you're charging full price for your tickets, your fans deserve a full price game. (Which brings up the travesty of charging full price for pre-season tickets, but that's a subject you can already tell which side of the fence we'll fall on...)

In the end, morals and good sportsmanship MUST win out. If other teams are depending on you to play a fair and competitive game, you need to do so - despite legislative opinion to the contrary, pro sports leagues are ONE entity, working out of a dozen or three franchises, and anything one does that hurts the entirety of the league is a mistake. If that needs to be "legislated" by a commissioner or governing body, you shouldn't be running a sports team: you haven't learned the basics of "sports-man-ship" yet.

WEEKEND WESULTS - a day late!

Sometimes the first day of the school year slaps you in the face... and you don't get your Monday blog post out on time! (And sometimes you don't get it out on time and there's no good excuse at all!)

SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!

IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.

Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.

To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.

As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!

PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL - August Week 3

(I dunno...y'like the alliterative misspelling in the title or not? Let us know...)

Welcome home to Following Football 2.0, and our regular Wednesday feature where we share the outcomes of games this weekend without the benefit of having actually experienced those games yet!

We'll start with the AFL this week, and there are at least a pair of games that are very difficult to call - the Aussie oddsmakers have Fremantle @ North Melbourne as a dead heat - no spread at all, very unusual for them. Even more unusual - bettors haven't moved that line either direction! We're going with the Freo Dockers from pedigree (they've played these big games and won them; the Kangaroos are as up and down a team as you'll ever find), but North prob needs the game more than Freo does...

The other difficult pick involves the Gold Coast Suns, as talented a team as you'll ever see but with more injuries than the Spartan army in 300, hosting the Essendon Bombers, who just strongly suggested to their coach that his presence would be better off done without for the foreseeable future. The Dons are another talented team, finalists last year, suffering from the shadow of the drug scandal that's haunted them for three years now. That's as may be, says I, but it doesn't defend the lack of professionalism when you show that you simply don't want to play, that you allow middling teams like Adelaide and Saint Kilda to run over you like tackling dummies. THAT part was coaching. I don't know the interim coach from my butcher, but I'll bet that changing to ANYONE else is going to restore enough pride into that team to defeat a squad of second teamers, which is all Gold Coast can muster at this point in the season, three weeks from vacation. Taking Essendon at 2.80, sixteen point spread be hanged.

The other games are all over the board - Hawthorn's favored by 46 over Port, but I suspect the Power will show up enough to keep it respectable... Richmond, on the other hand, should have no trouble whomping Collingwood...Hard to call the Opera House Haggle (not its name, but I like it) - Sydney's fighting for a top four spot; Greater Western Sydney's fighting to make the top eight and keep playing, and it's at GWS. Oddsmakers have it fifteen points Sydney's way; AFL.com's predictor is going with GWS, and so's my heart. Unfortunately, my brain says the same thing it did for the first game - pedigree picks the Swans to beat the Giants once more, though it'll be tight. If either team solves its ruckman issues by Saturday, they'll win...Geelong should walk all over St. Kilda and Adelaide won't have any trouble with Brisbane...If Melbourne doesn't have "one of those games", they should defeat Carlton and keep the Blues at the bottom with two games left...Finally, the most exciting game of the round (maybe the season) is the one in Perth between the surprising high speed West Coast Eagles and the surprising high speed Western Bulldogs - this could be 150 apiece, or the defenses could annihilate each other and it'd be 50 apiece! Home field to the Eagles, and that's how I'm betting, too.

Our current record is 126-44, and we went 7-2 last week (missed on GWS losing to Port Adelaide and West Coast beating Fremantle). Against the spreads, we're 99-71.

Time to look at the CFL, where a very strange thing happened last weekend: all four games went according to predictions. That's right, even though Following Football, the CFL.ca prognosticator Jamie Nye, and the professional oddsmakers all picked Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton, and Calgary to win...they somehow all DID win! Edmonton had to come from 12-0 behind to kick a field goal as time expired (so to speak - in the CFL, there's one play AFTER 0:00 every half), but Toronto handled Winnipeg more easily than a 27-20 score indicates, while Hamilton and Calgary each annihilated their oppositions (combined score of 100-25). So those four teams now have a little separation from the pack: each sits at 5-2 and looking strong, with Ottawa at 4-3 and the other four below .500 at this moment.

Well, this week, Calgary and Toronto should be heavy favorites against Saskatchewan and Ottawa respectively - a touchdown or so - but Hamilton has to play at Edmonton, which should be a dogfight! The TigerCats have the highest rating in the Following Football elo system at 40.4, but with the home field advantage, Edmonton actually balances that out to a net draw. We're still going with Hamilton, impressed with the full-team supremacy they've exhibited the last three weeks. Finally, while Winnipeg gets the week off, Montreal has the unenviable task of flying to Vancouver to play the BC Lions, who should be able to hold off the Alouettes with their home field advantage, although the FF ratings have this match as a draw as well! Nevertheless, we're going with BC.

We are now at 17-15 for the year with our Canadian picks, good for the top 20% in the CFL pick-em, and on a streak of seven in a row correct. Against the spread, we're 16-15-1.

Finally, we look and laugh at the NFL oddsmakers, not because they don't know what they're doing, but they probably don't know why they're doing it! As we often discuss here, football coaches have many, MANY higher priorities that WINNING, or even the scoreboard, in a preseason game. What is you're betting on when you bet a pre-season game, especially in the NFL? How serious a coach is about winning? Whose third teamers are better? Which team leaves their starters in slightly longer?
Sigh.

Any way, the odds that caught my attention are listed below, and here's why I picked these: imagine Vegas setting ANY of these lines in a "REAL" game between the teams listed!

Washington -3 over Detroit?
Cleveland -3 over Buffalo?
KC -2 over Seattle?
New Orleans -1 over New England?
Houston -3 over Denver?
Pittsburgh -3 over Green Bay?
San Francisco -3 1/2 over Dallas?

Somehow, that last one really floors me! (And yes, our record is still 0-0 this year...)

Tomorrow, in Thursday Thoughts, we'll discuss the forecast for the winners of the American football scene in 2015-16 - both the NFL and the division 1A NCAA.

Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL

These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.

Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS

Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western

And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)

Week 8 down under...

Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43 

The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go! 

Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.

At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...

...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.

In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).

Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!

Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)

Bipolar Footy Weekend: Saturday was as predicted, but SUNDAY?

Great game on Friday night, for once, as North Melbourne defeated Essendon 93-82 in an exciting game that flip-flopped several times. But Saturday...yawn...five games that all played to form, and the closest one was 43 points in the end:
- Adelaide over St. Kilda 119-73 (although the Saints started with a three-goal lead!)
- Hawthorn over Melbourne 155-50, and it wasn't that close.
- Sydney pulled away from Geelong 120-77 after a close first three quarters.
- GWS proved its credentials by annihilating poor Carlton 135-57, following their "famous victory" over the Hawks last week.
- And poor Gold Coast fielded whoever they could in a 135-43 rout by the West Coast Eagles that was well over 100 points shortly after three quarters, before they called off the slaughter.

So, expectations for Sunday were NOT high. And then...
- The Western Bulldogs (having fought to use Etihad Stadium this week, rather than give it up to a soccer tourney) fought back from 32-0 to tie the game at 88 with less than 4 minutes to go, only to see 7-0 Fremantle win by 13 (101-88) in the end. What a incredible game from both teams!
-As the legendary Rex Hunt (my favorite footy voice of all time!) broadcast his 2000th game of AFL/VFL footy (and the stories he can share!...), his ole team Richmond upset Collingwood 105-100 in a game that had 12 lead changes!
-And finally, amazingly rising from the dead, the Brisbane Lions pulled away from the much more talented Port Adelaide Power and won 102-65!

So, the ladder as it sits right now...
1. Fremantle. 7-0 and unbeaten - but happy to have been challenged this week! Still two games clear of all competition and rolling on all cylinders.

2-5. West Coast, Sydney, Adelaide and GWS, all 5-2. All four look like realistic finalists, although I'd take Freo over any of them at the MCG or anywhere else right now.

6-9. Hawthorn, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, all 4-3. No reason any of the four couldn't be finalists, but certainly not all nine teams will make finals. Oddly, the difference between 8th and 9th places right now - between Western and North - is exactly ONE point in the percentage: Western has exactly as many points scored as allowed (616/616, or 100.0%), while the Kangaroos have one less point than scored (656/657, or 99.9%).

10-13. Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Geelong, all at a desperate 3-4 and trying to stay close to finals contention. With fifteen games (2/3 of the season) still to go, there's still plenty of time to make the top eight - after all, Richmond made it from a 3-10 start last year - but the teams ahead of them are going to make it difficult!

14-16. St. Kilda, Melbourne, and Brisbane, all happy to be 2-5 because most folks have them pegged for the bottom of the ladder and maybe not having won any games by now!

17-18. Gold Coast and Carlton, 1-6, desperate for anything positive to happen this season. GC literally had too few players to practice last week, and Carlton "simply doesn't have the talent" to keep up with the rest of the league this year. Gold Coast in particular is a huge disappointment, having expected to make finals this year.

Wild Week 4 down under!

What a wild ANZAC holiday weekend in the Aussie Footy league!  I spent thirteen straight hours listening to the quadruple-header on line from Friday evening at seven through eight a.m. Saturday morning (ok, I heard all of the first two games, and dozed on and off through the other two!), with another five or six hours last night for the three overlapping Sunday games! Heaven!

Friday night, the opener for ANZAC week set the tone as the harder working team won; the fact that they were twenty point underdogs is immaterial.  Melbourne dominated Richmond 83-51 in the second half, holding the Tigers to one goal in the entire second half. Jack Riewoldt, the lead forward for Richmond, hit four behinds and zero goals in the game, for example, as the team went 6.15 (meaning six goals, fifteen behinds). And it was a PHYSICAL game, too, with each team racking up almost a hundred tackles.

Saturday started in Wellington, NZ, with St. Kilda 'hosting' Carlton, two bottom feeder teams. They played like it, too, and in the fourth quarter the younger Saints simply wore out, as Carlton pulled away and won by 40.

The traditional ANZAC day game over the last twenty years has been Essendon/Collingwood, at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Grounds, "the home of footy"). This year's version did not disappoint, as Collingwood looked far better than expected and won comfortably in the rain with 90,000 close friends, 69-49. It wasn't pretty (twice as many behinds as goals), but the Magpies are suddenly 3-1 and in the top 8 at the moment!

Next came the continuing degradation of the previous flavor of the month, the Gold Coast Suns, at the hands of their 'little brother', fellow expansion team GWS Giants, who set team records as they ripped the Suns apart 119-53. Frankly, the score flattered GC, as they were NEVER competitive; GWS had 157 more disposals than the Suns. Giants star Jeremy Cameron was spectacular with ten scoring shots, just missing a goal with a ridiculous backwards bicycle kick. 

The two nightcap games were the headliners, and played out virtually identically! The Grand Finalist (Hawthorn, Sydney) travels to the Up-n-Comers (Port Adelaide and Fremantle, respectively), and the home teams spend the first halves absolutely dismantling the champs (Port led Hawthorn 69-11 towards the end of the 2nd; Fremantle held Sydney to NINE points in the entire half). But the Champs are champs for a reason, and they found a gear at halftime that overwhelmed the younger team for a time (the Hawks scored 34 straight in the fourth to cut the lead to seven; the Swans outscored the Dockers 41-1 from the third into the fourth to cut that lead to three), before the opponent stabilized and won - Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn 99-91, and Fremantle became the only 4-0 team, winning 74-60 over Sydney. Great games!

On Sunday, West Coast outplayed Brisbane 118-65. WC had seventy inside 50s over the less experienced Lions, and played to their usual pattern: whomp the little guys; get whomped by the big guys. The Kangaroos held to form for a change, overcoming a virtual shutout in the first quarter to defeat aging Geelong 83-67 in a defensive battle where neither team played great defense. (Both teams moved an extra man into defense, which meant the offense couldn't just kick it in - the Roos figured out they needed to RUN the ball into the forward region, ending with just 10 marks inside 50 of their fifty-three inside 50s.)

And the upset of the round, unless you really believe in the hardest working team in the league: the Western Bulldogs, who amazed the unbeaten Adelaide Crows 125-68! Despite having more than fifty more possessions than the Crows, the Bulldogs still out-tackled them by eighteen! Already leading 69-35 at the half, the Doggies ran off thirty-four more points in a row to close out the third quarter. Suddenly, Western's got a 3-1 record, sitting comfortably inside the top eight, and looking like they may STAY there for awhile!

AFL's Week 3 results...

Collingwood 140, St. Kilda 66... The Saints started strong, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with almost anyone in the AFL.

Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.

Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.

Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.

Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.

Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.

Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.

Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.

Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.

Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.

..and AFL Week Two In Preview!

...and here are the match-ups for Week Two!

Fri) Carlton at West Coast 
    West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.

Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
   Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.

Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
   Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!

Adelaide at Collingwood 
   On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.

Sydney at Port Adelaide
   This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!

St. Kilda at Gold Coast
   On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.

Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
   Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.

Hawthorn at Essendon
    Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.

Brisbane at North Melbourne
   Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.

AFL Week One In Review...

Welcome! Here are the game results from last weekend's Australian Football League games - Week One of the AFL "home-and-away" season:

Richmond 105, Carlton 78 (Season opener in the MCG!)
Melbourne 115, Gold Coast 89 (a big upset but a deserved win!)
Sydney 72, Essendon 60 (in a heavy downpour - Essendon was up 41 in the third)
Collingwood 86, Brisbane 74
Western Bulldogs 97, West Coast Eagles 87 (another upset, but the Eagles' injuries are going to knock 'em down several pegs this season)
GWS 87, St. Kilda 78  (but the Saints played well!)
Adelaide Crows 140, N. Melbourne 63 (the surprise of the round - not that the Crows won, but that they ANNIHILATED the Kangaroos, who never really showed up)
Fremantle 75, Port Adelaide 68 (the GAME of the round - both teams were superb)
Hawthorn 123, Geelong 61 (the showcase of the round: the Hawks are set for a three-peat!)

Here are the records, ladder positions, and ratings following Round One:

Hawthorn Hawks (1-0) #2	87.1
Sydney Swans (1-0) #5	74.5
Port Adelaide Power (0-1) #10	72.1
Adelaide Crows (1-0) #1	70.7
Fremantle Dockers (1-0) #9	69.5
Geelong Cats (0-1) #17	57.9
N Melbourne Kangas (0-1) #18	55.6
West Coast Eagles (0-1) #12	55.6
Richmond Tigers (1-0) #3	55.1
Essendon Bombers (0-1) #13	52.5
Gold Coast Suns (0-1) #15	42.2
Collingwood Magpies (1-0) #6	37.3
Carlton Blues (0-1) #16	36.4
Western Bulldogs (1-0) #7	35.2
GWS Giants (1-0) #8	31.0
Brisbane Lions (0-1) #14	29.9
Melbourne Demons (1-0) #4	26.0
St. Kilda Saints (0-1) #11	11.4

Tonight's the Night! (Gonna be aw-right!)

Here we go! The 2015 Australian Football League kicks off in less than five hours with Carlton v Richmond, two of the oldest teams and a traditional season opener (albeit not always on a Thursday night, which it already is Down Under!). Go to afl.com.au for all your news, scores, video highlights, and whatever else you want on all things footy! 

Here's the round-up of games for Round 1 of the twenty-two game season...

Carlton v Richmond (Richmond favored by 16.5 on line, 12 by our rating system), Thurs Apr 2

Gold Coast @ Melbourne (GC Suns favored big on all fronts), Sat Apr 4
Essendon @ Sydney (Sydney favored by 30-ish over the Bombers), Sat Apr 4
Collingwood @ Brisbane (despite recent records, Brisbane is rightfully favored by a few points here!), Sat Apr 4
West Coast @ Western (in Melbourne, which tells you how old "Western" is! - pundits are split here. West Coast should be better, but have some injuries...), Sat Apr 4

GWS @ St. Kilda (if ever GWS will be favorites on the road, this is it, by about 15), Sun Apr 5
Kangaroos @ Adelaide (great game, potentially. We like North Melbourne to finish higher, but the Adelaide Crows to win here by a goal), Sun Apr 5
Port Adelaide @ Fremantle (met thrice last year, all classic games! Flip a coin, but Freo is favored by 4-5), Sun Apr 5

Geelong @ Hawthorn (the best matchup there is, because of the six-year long "Kennett Curse" that was broken in the prelim finals in 2013 - now, it's safe to pick Hawthorn by 20+!), Mon Apr 6

We'll update on Mondays, both standings and rating systems, but again, follow for yourself on afl.com.au!

AFL predictions from the AFL media

The annual survey of the afl.com.au staff on a wide variety of predictions for the 2015 season - no HUGE surprises, but it'll give you a great feel for the landscape of the upcoming AFL season.

So, for fairness' sake, here are my commesurate forecasts...
TOP EIGHT: Hawthorn - Sydney - North Melbourne - Port Adelaide - Fremantle - Adelaide - Geelong - either Richmond or Gold Coast.
PREMIER: Hawthorn Hawks
RUNNER-UP: Sydney Swans
WOODEN SPOON (last place): St. Kilda
MOVING UP: N. Melbourne, GWS
SET TO FALL: Carlton
Brownlow Medal ("mvp"): Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
Coleman Medal (most goals): Jarryd Roughhead (Hawthorn)
NAB AFL Rising Star: Honestly? I don't know.
Coach of the Year: Alistair Clarkston (Hawthorn)
Recruit of the Year: Mitch Clark (Geelong)
Surprise All-Australian: Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Headline you'll see: Third time's the charm! Hawthorn v Sydney for the title!
Headline you WON'T see: All the stars make it through the season injury-free!
Everyone will be talking about: The race for the Brownlow - Ablett, Fyfe, Coleman, Franklin, Dangerfield...
How many goals will Lance Franklin kick? 60 - he'll be in the Coleman race!
Which new coach will win the most game? Adelaide's new coach, Phil Walsh
Will Patrick Dangerfield stay at Adelaide? They all say no, but I hope he does!

So, following the 'NAB Preseason', here are our 2015 AFL predictions!

As the last nine games of the pre-season conclude this weekend with some of the traditional crosstown rivalries, we've done a simulation of the upcoming season from what we've seen so far. Here are the results, with checkpoints throughout the projected 2015 season:

After April (4 games in) -

4-0) ADELAIDE
3-1) HAWTHORN, NORTH, PORT, RICHMOND, GWS, BRISBANE
2-2) SYDNEY, GEELONG, GOLD COAST, ESSENDON, FREMANTLE
1-3) WEST COAST, COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, WESTERN
0-4) MELBOURNE, ST KILDA

Odd to see the Crows alone on top, but they've got an easy April to start the season.

Halfway through (after round 10, right before the byes) -

9-1) HAWTHORN, PORT ADELAIDE
7-2-1) ADELAIDE
7-3) SYDNEY,  NORTH MELBOURNE
6-4) GOLD COAST, FREMANTLE, RICHMOND
5-4-1) GWS
5-5) ESSENDON, GEELONG
4-6) WESTERN, BRISBANE
3-7) WEST COAST
2-8) COLLINGWOOD, CARLTON, MELBOURNE
0-10) ST KILDA

Now the cream will start to rise...Port and the Hawks occupy the top two spots, and six of last year's top eight are there again, joined by the Crows and Suns. Note Geelong 5-5, West Coast at 3-7, the Magpies with just 2 wins, and the Saints on a ten game losing streak.

After sixteen rounds, with just seven games to go...

14-1) HAWTHORN
12-3) PORT, NORTH
11-4) SYDNEY
10-4-1) ADELAIDE
9-6) FREMANTLE, RICHMOND, GOLD COAST
So, the top eight are unchanged from the last list...and a gap to...
7-7-1) GWS
7-8) GEELONG, ESSENDON, WESTERN
5-10) WEST COAST
4-11) BRISBANE, COLLINGWOOD
3-12) CARLTON, MELBOURNE
2-13) ST KILDA

And finally, our forecast for the final records for the 2015 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (19-3)
2. Sydney Swans (18-4)
3. North Melbourne Kangaroos (18-4)
4. Port Adelaide Power (15-7)
5. Fremantle Dockers (15-7)
6. Adelaide Crows (14-7-1)
7. Geelong Cats (13-9)
8/9. Richmond/Gold Coast (12-10)!!!
10. Essendon Bombers (11-11)
11. GWS Giants (10-11-1)
12. Western Bulldogs (9-12-1)
13. West Coast Eagles (8-14)
14. Collingwood Magpies (7-15)
15. Brisbane Lions (6-15-1)
16. Melbourne Demons (5-17)
17. Carlton Blues (3-19)
18. St. Kilda Saints (2-20)

Reviewing these, a few points...the top two are unchanged from last year, and we expect a repeat of last year's Grand Final participants...Port will fade, Freo will charge, but the percentage will keep the Power in the top four for the double chance during finals...Geelong and Sydney will both end the season well, our prediction suggesting that the Cats will end on a 7 of 8 run, and the Swans will win their last ten... We see Richmond and Gold Coast as a flat footed tie, which means ,argins of victory (and defeat!) will be critical all year for them!... Hard to fault the Dons if they don't make finals after the distractions...GWS should make another four win jump, and don't be shocked if it's more... Continuing to fall, West Coast and Collingwood and Carlton and St. Kilda, while Melbourne and Brisbane and Western will improve. Again, we see another Hawthorn/Sydney GF, and just as we won't stick our neck out for 8th, we also won't for first! Right now, we'd take the defenders...

Aussie round up - Preseason week 2

So, here's a quick wrap up of the weekend's pre-season games down under...

Fremantle defeated Melbourne, 61-43, in a rather unspectacular game where each team had their "moments" to build on. (Fremantle should end up being a much stronger team than the Demons as the season wears on.)

The Brisbane Lions look fantastic, smashing the Grand Finalist Sydney Swans by a score of 75-39 on Friday. Admittedly, it was the Swans' first game and the second for the Lions, but there were still some amazing flashes of growth and improvement from the 7-win Lions from last year!

Greater Western Sydney also looked great, defeating the Gold Coast Suns by 36 points. GC rested most of their stars but still, the Giants were really on top of things Saturday!

The match everyone had been waiting to see went exactly as everyone had feared... St. Kilda rolled over the imposters wearing the Essendon Bombers uniforms, in some cases with the highest numbers in footy history (you never see numbers in the 70s on the field!), as they were playing their "top-up" players while virtually the entire team - every man who was on the Dons in 2012, when the supplement scandal was taking place - was on probable suspension through the pre-season. With the 101-51 score, we learned virtually nothing about St. Kilda, and literally nothing about Essendon.

Port Adelaide beat the West Coast Eagles by the substantial score of 89-49, but the real story was yet another injury to a key Eagle player, meaning West Coast is looking at a depleted roster even before the start of the real season.

Finally, the game that I got to hear Saturday night (their Sunday afternoon) was the best game of the pre-season so far, with a strong Hawthorn team falling to an even stronger team from North Melbourne, looking all the while like a Grand Final contender after being a surprise semi-finalist last year! 38-year old Brent Harvey, the oldest in the league, continues to look like a superstar, and both teams are in midseason form already!

It's also becoming clear that the new enforcement of the tackling rule - no more question as to whether a man with the ball has been tackled or got rid of the ball in time: it's now a tackle every time! - will benefit those teams who are already good tacklers, and avoid being tackled themselves! Who might that be? Only the three teams who have already shown they were loaded for bear this season and were ready to move up the ranks: Brisbane, GWS, and Gold Coast. Look out for those three as possible up'n'comers for finals this year!

Slogans? SLOGANS!

The last post talked about the membership drives each of the teams is pushing right now, leading into the 2015 season which starts for "real" at the beginning of April. 

And with any campaign, there are slogans to keep the attention of the viewing and listening public....Some of the slogans are (shall we say) better than others?

Kangaroos - "#getREAL"
Sydney Swans - "Feel it in '15"
Geelong - "We need you, be a member at home or far away"
Collingwood - "Side by side we stick together: it's more than a line in our song"
    (what?)
None of those approach the dubious charm of some of Carlton's efforts a few years ago...
"They know we're coming" and "Can You Smell What The Blues Are Cooking?", straight out of The Rock's wrestling motto.

The all-time worst, in retrospect, belongs to the 2013 Essendon Dons, who were about to be embroiled in the worst doping scandal in AFL history: "Whatever It Takes". Really, Dons? It really ended up being "whatever it took", didn't it?

Some more of this year's better samples - "Unleash 2015" (Adelaide), "#ForeverFreo" (Fremantle), "My Heart Beats True" (Melbourne, a good slogan for a team trying to come back), "Bring The Noise" (Port Adelaide, to one of the louder fan bases in the league), and West Coast's "The West Is Ours" (always in a fan battle with its crosstown rival Fremantle). We kind of like some of the hashtag examples, too - #gatherthepack (Western Bulldogs), #StandTall (GWS, who has a great big front line), and #BelieveBelong (for Brisbane).