Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:
SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)
PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)
BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)
BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)
ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)
Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6).
American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)
Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)
Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)
Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)
Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)
So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.
Showing posts with label Minnesota. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota. Show all posts
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Thursday, January 1, 2015
New Year's Six bowl games in progress!
JAN 1 UPDATE: Watching three really great bowl games simultaneously: Wisconsin finding a way to come back and defeat Auburn 34-31, using a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon running wild, as he has against everyone except Playoff contenders, it seems...Minnesota's Maxx Williams hurdling Missouri players en route to a touchdown...Baylor's Bryce Petty throwing touchdowns to targets large and small, including a 400-pound target "wearing" a receiver's number as a half shirt!
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
There were some WILD plays in the Citrus Bowl - click on www.espn.com and watch the highlights of the Minnesota/Missouri game: weird fumbles, hurdled defenders, you name it. For that matter, the Baylor/MSU game's got some great plays to show you as well! (And if you like great running, watch Wisconsin's highlights while you're there!)
Weird! As Baylor is trying to run out the clock, one score up on the Spartans, and they have a great run down to the five negated by an offensive facemask by the runner! Fortunately, they still got the first down, but Michigan St blocked the field goal attempt that would have iced the game, getting one more shot at the winning touchdown with 65 seconds to go!
What an AMAZING comeback for Michigan State, blocking a field goal and then getting down the field in 47 seconds to score and kick what looks like the winning extra point with seventeen seconds left. It's hard not to picture TCU fans celebrating the karmic vengeance of Baylor's bowl opponent to come back from 21 down, just like the Bears did to THEM in the fourth quarter to win 61-58, the most famous score of the year!
Florida State sure is suffering from bad luck/execution in its clash against Oregon! Getting stuck at the six inch line, on replay, no less, and shooting themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes...down 11-3 at the moment. Maybe they're just setting the stage for more Jamies-magic in the fourth quarter?
HEY, SEMINOLES! HANG ON TO THE BALL! Oregon now leads 39-20 after two outright swipes of FSU runners in the third quarter.
Amazing to hear Kirk Herbstreit say on a national TV broadcast, "Florida State has quit. I can't believe I'm saying it, but they have shut - it - down, early in the fourth quarter." Sad thing is, he may be right. 59-20, five FSU turnovers, all converted into TDs. The last two scores, it looked like the Oregon runners (Mariota, then Tyner) simply ran through the Seminole D like it wasn't there.
Weird statistic: the ONLY team out of the 128 FBS teams that has not converted a single fourth down this year....is Florida State, odd considering their penchant for late comebacks which so often for most teams seems to involve fourth down conversions. And so far, it's still true.
Alabama/Ohio State was such a great game, with two teams which remembered they were great (ahem, Florida St!). Congratulations to the Buckeyes, condolensces to the Tide, and lookong forward to a lot of P on the 12th (get it? O?).
DEC 31: So far, this looks like Revenge of the Little Guys, starting with TCU and their annihilation of the poor Ole Miss Rebels, 42-3, as they looked faster on offense, defense, and on special teams. Now, just ten minutes into the game, Boise State leads Arizona 21-0, with three brilliant touchdowns including Jay Ajayi's "Statue of Liberty redux".
Amazing to see how a game can change from one half to the next! First half, Boise had 400 yards, Hedrick was 17-18, and they scored 31 points. Second half, Boise's offense hasn't scored, under a hundred yards gained, and up one TD with three minutes to go....
Fourth and one, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon kinda hands off to Grigsby...actually, he hung on to the ball and ran WITH his running back through the line. "First time I've ever seen the quarterback make the tackle!", said the TV commentator...
Never been so glad to be wrong in our lives...Arizona's Anu Solomon does the only thing he could not do - let himself get tackled in bounds, and let the clock run out without taking one last shot at the end zone. As it was, Boise St wins their third straight Fiesta Bowl, all as an underdog, this one 38-30. Next: Mississippi St and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!
Hard not to be impressed with GT's balanced attack - for the premier running team in the nation, the Yellowjackets put together a very nice passing game that attacked MSU just when they weren't ready for it. Both QBs were outstanding, and it's hard not to be sad for such a phenomenal season for Mississippi St to end on such a down note.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
College predictions for Week 13!
Like we whined about with the pro schedule (our "whine" which was really a praise, of course!), we've been able to refine our tiers to the point where our tier-based predictions barely differ from the casino lines or from the Sagarin point spreads. We'll review some of the major contests coming up this Thanksgiving weekend, along with the games where we actually have some differing forecasts to consider...
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Games of the highest interest:
Thursday - TCU @ Texas - The Horned Frogs are favored by anywhere from 6 1/2 to 9 points, but with the surging Longhorns looking for a pelt to prove they're on the road back, our instincts are telling us TCU's in trouble.
Friday - Arkansas @ Missouri - Another case of a surging lower team looking for a pelt, but in this case the Tier E Razorbacks are ready to make a full coat if they can prevent Mizzou from winning the East!
Arizona St @ Arizona - The Territorial Cup hasn't looked this good in the 21st century! Both 9-2, both Tier C, #17 and #18 on our ranking list - and the Pac-12 South title in reach for both. Wildcats get the three point ad for being at home from us.
Stanford @ UCLA - ...but they'll have to hope the Bruins lose if they want to play Oregon next week. And UCLA's firing on too many cylinders to let that happen.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - Both 5-6, both need the win to go to a bowl. Question: if VaTech lost, would they really consider letting Frank Beamer go?
Saturday - South Carolina @ Clemson - Always fun! Clemson by 4.5 up to 6, depending on which of us you listen to. The state championship is on the line...
Kentucky @ Louisville - And here too, where the Cardinals are favored by 8 up to 13.5, depending on who you get your info from. We're the low end, as usual - we've had a soft spot for the Wildcats all year, but if they continue their downward trend, it may be much worse than that.
Michigan @ Ohio St - Probably Brady Hoke's last game. And if OSU comes up with a reason to run it up - to impress the committee, perhaps? - this could be uglier than the 17-22 point spreads we have in place.
Purdue @ Indiana - We can't even say it's for the state championship...Notre Dame won that. Hoosiers by 1.5 to 3.
Notre Dame @ USC - Glad they've found a way to keep this one on the schedule. Trojans by 3-7, although if Golson plays well, we see ND having a puncher's chance.
Florida @ Florida St - If you bet on this game, you're crazy. Sure, the spread is consistent: 5-11 points (we have it at 11), but if FSU wants to keep it close...if Florida decides to "win one for the Champer"....or lay down and die...this could be a rout either way, or a tie game at the death...
Baylor @ Texas Tech - Nothing to see here: Assuming the Bears show up (and they will), this game's job is to certify their credentials to pass TCU...who put up 82 on Tech. Hmm... The spread is 16-25, but if Baylor gets rolling, it might as well be 1625...
Kansas @ Kansas St - See previous comments.
Auburn @ Alabama - Why bother? The Iron Bowl can't POSSIBLY top last year's game... 'Bama by 5-10 points.
Oregon @ Oregon St - If you don't keep at least half an eye on this game, you might be surprised come Sunday morning! Sure, the Ducks are favored over the Beavers (by the way, the Civil War trophy is a combination of the two animals - hence, a platypus!) by 13-22 points, but there's a reason we're at the low end of that spread. OSU/Oregon has ALWAYS had the potential to ruin someone's season!
Games of a betting interest (but DON'T BET ON THEM!):
Friday - Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan - Hard to believe the Broncos are favored over the Huskies, but they are! We say by 1 point; Vegas says 7. (Sagarin, by the way, splits the difference: 3 1/2.)
Buffalo @ U Mass - The official line is Buffalo by 2; we call it EVEN. (Sagarin encourages us by picking UM by 2!)
Wyoming @ New Mexico - Coming off the shellacking Boise gave them, the Cowboys are 4 1/2 point underdogs in Vegas; we have them as one point faves! (Sagarin rates the game even.)
Games that are BOTH interesting on and off the field:
Thursday - LSU @ Texas A&M - We're picking the Aggies by 1; Vegas picks the Tigers by 2.5! (Sagarin rates it even.) Two teams who could beat anyone, but don't...
Friday - Nebraska @ Iowa - The Big Ten keeps trying to contrive rivalries since Oklahoma no longer shares the schedule. But this one seems to us to be the most natural, geographically. We see the Huskers by 3; Vegas has Iowa by 1. (Sagarin agrees with us.)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia - The state championship of Georgia looks like a foregone conclusion for Vegas; they favor UGA by 13 (Sagarin says 16.5!). We think Tech will stay within 6. (We do have a soft spot for Georgia Tech, though...)
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - We have a soft spot for the Golden Gophers, too - and they've got a legit shot at the Big Ten West title, if they can go into Madison and steal a game the way they stole the game (and the ball!) from Nebraska last week! We have UW as only a five point favorite; Vegas thinks Melvin Gordon runs wild and wins by two TDs. We like you, Badgers, but we're rooting for UM this weekend!!
Mississippi St @ Ole Miss - Can't recall this ever being THE game of the weekend! If Ole Miss had held up their end of the bargain, this could have been the game of the season! The casinos think MSU should be two-point favorites; we think Ole Miss at home should be the favorite, though not by much (half-point?). In the SEC West, home field has been everything. Our hunch is that it will be here, too.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
We reveal our tiers and rankings after Week 12's games...
TIER A: 1. Alabama (10-1). 2. Mississippi St (10-1). 3. Florida St (11-0). 4. Oregon (10-1). 5. Baylor (9-1). 6. TCU (9-1). Same as last week. And yes, FSU is undefeated, but if they were playing 'Bama or MSU on a neutral field, who would be the favorite? That's our standard.
TIER B: 7. Ohio St (10-1). 8. Georgia (9-2). 9. UCLA (9-2), moving up after a strong win against a good team. 10. Michigan St (9-2). 11. Kansas St (8-2). 12. Auburn (8-3). We don't think the two-loss teams have a realistic shot at the playoff at this late point; if anyone, MAYBE the Dogs or Bruins, but that's it.
TIER C: 13. Oklahoma (8-3). 14. Missouri (9-2). 15. Ole Miss (8-3). 16. Wisconsin (9-2). 17. Arizona St (9-2). 18. Arizona (9-2). 19. Georgia Tech (9-2). 20. LSU (7-4). Firstly, yes, there are eight teams, but we feel these eight are very similarly leveled. Second, they're more erratic than A and B, so on any given day, any of these teams could beat the others. And third, can't wait for the Territorial Cup game between Arizona and Arizona St!
TIER D: 21. Minnesota (8-3), with a bullet. 22. Nebraska (8-3), and could've won that game easily. 23. Marshall (11-0). 24. Colorado St (10-1), and we're not at all sure they (or Boise) aren't better than the Herd for that big bowl spot! 25. Clemson (8-3). 26. Texas A&M (7-4).
TIER E: 27. Louisville (8-3), after that great win at Notre Dame. 28. Arkansas (6-5), and you wouldn't want to face them in a bowl game right now! 29. Boise St (9-2), and improving weekly. 30. USC (8-4). 31. Duke (8-3), blowing their chance Thursday night. 32. Notre Dame (7-4), dropping like a rock. 33. Utah (7-4).
TIER F, the transition from the "top level" teams to the "mid-level" ones: 34. Maryland (7-4). 35. Stanford (6-5), with an impressive win at Cal. 36. South Carolina (6-5). 37. Florida (6-4), but not good enough to keep their coach, apparently. 38. West Virginia (6-5). 39. Miami-FL (6-5). 40. Texas (6-5).
TIER B: 7. Ohio St (10-1). 8. Georgia (9-2). 9. UCLA (9-2), moving up after a strong win against a good team. 10. Michigan St (9-2). 11. Kansas St (8-2). 12. Auburn (8-3). We don't think the two-loss teams have a realistic shot at the playoff at this late point; if anyone, MAYBE the Dogs or Bruins, but that's it.
TIER C: 13. Oklahoma (8-3). 14. Missouri (9-2). 15. Ole Miss (8-3). 16. Wisconsin (9-2). 17. Arizona St (9-2). 18. Arizona (9-2). 19. Georgia Tech (9-2). 20. LSU (7-4). Firstly, yes, there are eight teams, but we feel these eight are very similarly leveled. Second, they're more erratic than A and B, so on any given day, any of these teams could beat the others. And third, can't wait for the Territorial Cup game between Arizona and Arizona St!
TIER D: 21. Minnesota (8-3), with a bullet. 22. Nebraska (8-3), and could've won that game easily. 23. Marshall (11-0). 24. Colorado St (10-1), and we're not at all sure they (or Boise) aren't better than the Herd for that big bowl spot! 25. Clemson (8-3). 26. Texas A&M (7-4).
TIER E: 27. Louisville (8-3), after that great win at Notre Dame. 28. Arkansas (6-5), and you wouldn't want to face them in a bowl game right now! 29. Boise St (9-2), and improving weekly. 30. USC (8-4). 31. Duke (8-3), blowing their chance Thursday night. 32. Notre Dame (7-4), dropping like a rock. 33. Utah (7-4).
TIER F, the transition from the "top level" teams to the "mid-level" ones: 34. Maryland (7-4). 35. Stanford (6-5), with an impressive win at Cal. 36. South Carolina (6-5). 37. Florida (6-4), but not good enough to keep their coach, apparently. 38. West Virginia (6-5). 39. Miami-FL (6-5). 40. Texas (6-5).
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Now you have the ball...
...and now you don't! Less than two minutes left, Nebraska down 28-24 to B1G rival Minnesota, driving for a winning touchdown. Just as the Cornhusker receiver is close to scoring, the Gophers' Brian Boddy-Calhoun literally just TAKES the ball out of his hands! From there, Minnesota makes a first down and runs the clock out to defeat Nebraska by four. THAT is a game-saving play!
Saturday, November 8, 2014
As the early games progress
..we're seeing a bunch of missing defenses across the east, as teams run wild in second quarters in particular.
In Minnesota, the Hawkeyes drove for the first touchdown, and the Gophers rattled off five more against the, before halftime. At Oklahoma, the Baylor Bears threw five TDs at the Sooners in twenty minutes of the second quarter into the third. Georgia scored the first time it touched the ball - one of two kick returns for TDs so far - and hasn't failed to score yet, up 55-24 on Kentucky.
And so forth... Gonna be a great day!...
In Minnesota, the Hawkeyes drove for the first touchdown, and the Gophers rattled off five more against the, before halftime. At Oklahoma, the Baylor Bears threw five TDs at the Sooners in twenty minutes of the second quarter into the third. Georgia scored the first time it touched the ball - one of two kick returns for TDs so far - and hasn't failed to score yet, up 55-24 on Kentucky.
And so forth... Gonna be a great day!...
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Week 10 is upon us!
Starting the week 2-0 with our erudite flip-a-coin predictions (Bowling Green's "upset" of Akron Tuesday and NIU covering easily against Ball St; wish I could claim Kent St losing as a pick, but it wasn't going out on a limb!) gives us confidence as we proceed into the weekend's games!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
As a reminder, we do NOT provide betting spreads in reference to actually placing money as bets on games. We DO NOT recommend betting on any sports activities. The information here is meant to be informational, recreational, and for the sheer heck of it.
We only have one solid pick for the lead-up games: Memphis should be favored by LESS than a TD at Temple. We have them just one tier apart, but Vegas credits this as a ten-point gap (the seven points plus accounting for three more with the Owls as the home team). It should be a close game; we would call it even.
So, let's look at Saturday's games! For the record, our actual "betting choices" will be underlined. (Just because we comment on a game doesn't mean we think the spread is wrong...)
***One of the things we've learned in grouping teams is that while the spread between individual tiers is generally between 1-2 points per tier, there are occasions when the far ends (tiers A and U) will "spread out more"; that is, the bell curve will stretch out to increase the gap between, say, teams in tiers T and U. Certainly, by mathematics, Tulsa is only one tier above SMU, and playing at home means the Golden Hurricane should get 4-5 points. The spread is twelve, and we agree. SMU is not just bad: they're horrific. Considering the great job June Jones had done with the recently defunct program, it's amazing how far off the map they've fallen. But when a 1-7 Tulsa team is a 12-point favorite to you, Mustangs...well, we're sorry.
***It's interesting to look at the places where the line differs from our tiers, and wonder who's wrong. In the MAC, it appears we did very well; with Iowa @ Minnesota and Baylor @ Oklahoma, though, it's hard not to wonder. The Hawkeyes are favored by two on the road against a team from their own tier. And frankly, we don't have the guts to disagree - the Gophers haven't looked as good recently, and they've faded in previous years. But we do like Baylor to cover and even WIN at Oklahoma, who is not the national favorite they were made out to be in August. (So...call it a compromise?)
***Similarly down south, Georgia is a ten point favorite AT Kentucky, just one tier below them...but it's easy to picture the Dawgs wanting to beat someone down after the shellacking Florida gave them last week. Not a bad point spread, even if Kentucky never gets any love. And Duke also suffers from poor image, even as they hold the keys to another division championship - they're only a 3 1/2 point fave at Syracuse. We like Duke to win this by more than that.
***Poor Texas A&M - three TD underdogs at Auburn Saturday. What high hopes they had! Now, with their QB situation so unsettled, it's hard to see them being in this game at all.
***Troy gets a TD against fellow Bottom Sixer Georgia St? Interesting...As noted above, the regular rules don't apply at the ends. But Appalachian St as a favorite against UL-Monroe? No chance. Take Monroe to win. We have that as a three-tier gap the other way. And Army should be favored over U Conn, not the other way around, especially AT Army! Finally, in the lower ranks, we see Florida International beating Old Dominion, even on the road; they're 4 1/2 point dogs in Vegas' eyes.
***The faith in Michigan fascinates us. Northwestern may indeed be fading, but to trust the Wolverines on the road right now - or ANYWHERE right now - is an act of true faith.
***The six big games this weekend are pretty easy to spot: Kansas St @ TCU (we like the Frogs), Ohio St @ Michigan St (we like the home team, no matter which school would have hosted this one), Oregon @ Utah (9 1/2 points is a big line, but we're not going against it), Alabama @ LSU (we have a hard time giving the Tide a TD here...aw, shoot. Go ahead and take LSU and the six points.), Notre Dame @ Arizona St (a really interesting line - Sun Devils by 1 1/2. We're inclined to take the Irish instead. They know how to win big games.), and the aforementioned Baylor @ Oklahoma (Bears over Sooners). They should ALL be great - keep the clicker handy!
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Week 8 CFB tiers continued - the Upper Floors!
We've reached the upper half (slightly above, actually) of the FBS tiering: Tiers F through J, teams #31-61 if we were actually "ranking" (which we're not, at least in October!).
Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).
Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).
Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).
Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).
Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.
Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).
Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).
Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).
Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).
Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Interesting games this weekend...
Here are the college games that will keep us attentive this weekend...
In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!
Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...
Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!
Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...
Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.
We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.
Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...
What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?
How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?
Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)
Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....
The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!
South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).
The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!
Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).
Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.
In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!
Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...
Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!
Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...
Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.
We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.
Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...
What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?
How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?
Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)
Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....
The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!
South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).
The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!
Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).
Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
The Tiers have NARROWED for Week 7!
As we reach the halfway point of the season, we're narrowing the tiers again, down to SIX teams per tier. Eventually we'll get down to four, and at season's end we'll submit our final ranking order, from 1-124...but it's premature and unnecessary to do so now.
Tier A hosts the top six school teams as of now: three undefeateds (Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Florida St*) and three teams whose one loss was narrow, on the road, and to a top tier team (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU). Hard to deny them - almost hard to think there will be ANY unbeatens at season's end except for minor league champ Marshall.
Tier B contains six one-loss power teams, any of whom we could see beating even the Tier A teams on a given day: Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Oregon.
Tier C has Arizona, Duke, LSU, Nebraska, USC, and West Virginia. The Wildcats, Blue Devils, and Cornhuskers have one loss each; the others have last twice. But none of the nine losses were what you'd call embarrassing or 'inappropriate' - losing to good teams, no blowouts, and so forth. They'll hold their own against almost anyone, but we'd make them underdogs to the Tier A and B teams in a heartbeat.
When we get down to Tier D, some of these losses are a bit less excusable. These equate to rankings #19-24 in a conventional poll: Arizona St (5-1), East Carolina (5-1), Kansas St (5-1), Oklahoma (5-2), UCLA (5-2), and 5-1 Utah.
Tier E is essentially the equivalent of the fourth tier in last week's divisions, if comparisons are important to you: 5-2 Clemson, Colorado St (6-1), Kentucky (5-2), undefeated Marshall, Minnesota (6-1), and 5-2 Oklahoma St.
Tier F hosts six teams that (while not deserving grades of "F"!) have been disappointments at one level or another, more recently in particular: Georgia Tech (5-2, losers of their last two), Louisville (6-2), Maryland and Missouri (both 5-2), idle 4-2 Penn St, and free-falling Texas A&M, losers of three straight to three Tier A teams! What a killer schedule!
Now we've reached the levels of "receiving token votes" in the conventional polls, but these teams all have successes to boast of this year: Boise St, Miami-FL, Oregon St, Rutgers, Washington, and Wisconsin. All except the U have two losses; the Hurricanes have three. So, that's Tier G.
Tier H changed in drafts several times, but we've settled on Arkansas (4-3 in the toughest division in CFB history), Iowa (5-2), 4-3 Stanford and South Carolina and Utah St and Virginia.
The last level matching up with last week's divisions is Tier I, which features these competent teams: Air Force, Boston College, California, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Virginia Tech.
In the unofficial "tiery-eyed teams in waiting" green room are such teams as Bowling Green, fast-falling BYU, Florida, Houston, Northwestern, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Temple, and Texas Tech.
*If the Tallahassee police and FSU compliance officers truly put justice ahead of football success, do you think the Seminoles would still be undefeated?
And on the flip side, the Bottom Eight becomes the Bottom Six (plus seven more)... The undisputed master of the B6 is the lone winless team left in the FBS, the coachless SMU Mustangs, joined by Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St, and Troy. "Congratulations" to those clubs, some of whom were so far down that even a win didn't get them out of the basement!
Waiting for entrance to the exclusive club are Appalachian St, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, North Texas, UConn and UMass. Actually, three of those just escaped the B8, so "waiting" is inappropriate...
Tier A hosts the top six school teams as of now: three undefeateds (Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Florida St*) and three teams whose one loss was narrow, on the road, and to a top tier team (Alabama, Notre Dame, TCU). Hard to deny them - almost hard to think there will be ANY unbeatens at season's end except for minor league champ Marshall.
Tier B contains six one-loss power teams, any of whom we could see beating even the Tier A teams on a given day: Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Michigan St, Ohio St, and Oregon.
Tier C has Arizona, Duke, LSU, Nebraska, USC, and West Virginia. The Wildcats, Blue Devils, and Cornhuskers have one loss each; the others have last twice. But none of the nine losses were what you'd call embarrassing or 'inappropriate' - losing to good teams, no blowouts, and so forth. They'll hold their own against almost anyone, but we'd make them underdogs to the Tier A and B teams in a heartbeat.
When we get down to Tier D, some of these losses are a bit less excusable. These equate to rankings #19-24 in a conventional poll: Arizona St (5-1), East Carolina (5-1), Kansas St (5-1), Oklahoma (5-2), UCLA (5-2), and 5-1 Utah.
Tier E is essentially the equivalent of the fourth tier in last week's divisions, if comparisons are important to you: 5-2 Clemson, Colorado St (6-1), Kentucky (5-2), undefeated Marshall, Minnesota (6-1), and 5-2 Oklahoma St.
Tier F hosts six teams that (while not deserving grades of "F"!) have been disappointments at one level or another, more recently in particular: Georgia Tech (5-2, losers of their last two), Louisville (6-2), Maryland and Missouri (both 5-2), idle 4-2 Penn St, and free-falling Texas A&M, losers of three straight to three Tier A teams! What a killer schedule!
Now we've reached the levels of "receiving token votes" in the conventional polls, but these teams all have successes to boast of this year: Boise St, Miami-FL, Oregon St, Rutgers, Washington, and Wisconsin. All except the U have two losses; the Hurricanes have three. So, that's Tier G.
Tier H changed in drafts several times, but we've settled on Arkansas (4-3 in the toughest division in CFB history), Iowa (5-2), 4-3 Stanford and South Carolina and Utah St and Virginia.
The last level matching up with last week's divisions is Tier I, which features these competent teams: Air Force, Boston College, California, Northern Illinois, Pitt, Virginia Tech.
In the unofficial "tiery-eyed teams in waiting" green room are such teams as Bowling Green, fast-falling BYU, Florida, Houston, Northwestern, Tennessee, Texas, Cincinnati, Indiana, Memphis, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Temple, and Texas Tech.
*If the Tallahassee police and FSU compliance officers truly put justice ahead of football success, do you think the Seminoles would still be undefeated?
And on the flip side, the Bottom Eight becomes the Bottom Six (plus seven more)... The undisputed master of the B6 is the lone winless team left in the FBS, the coachless SMU Mustangs, joined by Georgia St, Idaho, Kent St, New Mexico St, and Troy. "Congratulations" to those clubs, some of whom were so far down that even a win didn't get them out of the basement!
Waiting for entrance to the exclusive club are Appalachian St, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, North Texas, UConn and UMass. Actually, three of those just escaped the B8, so "waiting" is inappropriate...
Saturday, October 18, 2014
Ryan Santoso's gonna eat for free tonight...
We've got to start paying attention to the Minnesota Gophers, who moved to 3-0 in the B1G with a 39-38 win, sparked by Santoso's 52-yard FG w just under five minutes to go in the game. Following last week's dramatic win over Northwestern on a kickoff return for a TD, these Gophers have that certain something that all champions need - and if there was ever a year the Big Ten was up for grabs, this is it!
Meanwhile, the Big Twelve is in shambles today, besides OU's epic meltdown, because Baylor's luck finally ran out in Morgantown, as WVU beat them 41-27 (and it wasn't that close). So, if TCU holds on and wins...are they now the front runner down south?
Meanwhile, the Big Twelve is in shambles today, besides OU's epic meltdown, because Baylor's luck finally ran out in Morgantown, as WVU beat them 41-27 (and it wasn't that close). So, if TCU holds on and wins...are they now the front runner down south?
Sunday, October 12, 2014
College Tiers after Week 6! (Part A)
Another truly exciting weekend of college football, culminating in the fourth straight victory for the state of Mississippi over a top-notch SEC team! The two Egg Bowl participants are a combined 12-0, and sit in the drivers' seats in the hardest division in football, the SEC West!
Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.
Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.
The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...
Leveling up this week from last.... Oregon and TCU (despite their first loss, they proved they belong in the big leagues) to Tier 1; LSU up to Tier 2; Clemson, USC, and Duke up to Tier 3; Kentucky and Utah up to Tier 4; Washington and Minnesota up to Tier 5; Boston College, Iowa, Utah St and Miami of Fla all moved up to Tier 6; and Bowling Green and Tennessee move into Tier 7.
Those who fell at least one tier include Auburn, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri, Louisville, Penn St, Oregon St, BYU, Air Force, Wisconsin and California.
The full Tier listing comes up in the next post in a few minutes...
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Daytime games - NCAA Week 6
* We HAVE to start with the outrageous game in Waco, where Baylor (and the home town refs and timekeepers) came from three TDs down in the 4th Q to outscore TCU 61-58.
In football, that is. Not basketball.
TCU's defense had gotten so exhausted by the time they had the ball at 58-all in the last two minutes that coach Patterson felt the need to go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield. A neglected PI call gave the Bears the ball, and they got down close enough on the non-neglected call for their frosh kicker to win the game. Amazing offensive display, an all-time record for points in a top ten game. TCU's 78 offensive plays would be impressive were it not for Baylor's 113 plays run! No wonder the Frog D was tired!
* Michigan St again wins its B1G game, but again allows their adversary a multi-TD comeback that threatens their win, in this case over Purdue 45-31. Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice...
* Somehow Oklahoma managed to go up 17-3 on Texas while getting only one first down over the first quarter. The Longhorns trailed at halftime while outgaining the Sooners by over 200 yards. Return touchdowns will do that for a team... By game's end, Texas had out possessed OU by sixteen minutes, outgained them by 250 yards, out first downed them 24-11, and lost 31-26.
* It seems Kent St is really bad. UMass, losers of twelve straight, came to the Flash's home field and won 40-17. Can't explain how. Our Bottom Eight tomorrow will be MAC heavy, with Miami of Ohio joining both teams in there somewhere.
* The Sun Belt will be well represented as well, led by Appalachian St, who invited former FCS rival Liberty to town and lost in OT, 55-48. As many as five Sun Belt schools may darken the basement doors of our Bottom Eight tomorrow, as New Mexico St made their bid by losing to previously winless Troy handily, 41-24.
* When your first two plays from scrimmage are turnovers resulting in immediate TDs for your opponent, it's hard to win on the road - and sure 'nuff, Auburn fell at Mississippi St 38-23, in a battle of Tier 1 teams in the rain today. Dak Prescott's this year's Cam Newton or Tim Tebow, as CBS kept reminding us, but it's a fair comparison. Here's hoping for a pro career closer to Cam's...
*Minnesota won 24-17 on a 100-yd kickoff return after Northwestern tied the game. Great work being done at the U of M, as it is at Kentucky (cupcake winners against ULM today, but given their history, hard to argue) and at Duke, where they stomped all over 5-0 Georgia Tech after a long storm delay.
In football, that is. Not basketball.
TCU's defense had gotten so exhausted by the time they had the ball at 58-all in the last two minutes that coach Patterson felt the need to go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield. A neglected PI call gave the Bears the ball, and they got down close enough on the non-neglected call for their frosh kicker to win the game. Amazing offensive display, an all-time record for points in a top ten game. TCU's 78 offensive plays would be impressive were it not for Baylor's 113 plays run! No wonder the Frog D was tired!
* Michigan St again wins its B1G game, but again allows their adversary a multi-TD comeback that threatens their win, in this case over Purdue 45-31. Fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice...
* Somehow Oklahoma managed to go up 17-3 on Texas while getting only one first down over the first quarter. The Longhorns trailed at halftime while outgaining the Sooners by over 200 yards. Return touchdowns will do that for a team... By game's end, Texas had out possessed OU by sixteen minutes, outgained them by 250 yards, out first downed them 24-11, and lost 31-26.
* It seems Kent St is really bad. UMass, losers of twelve straight, came to the Flash's home field and won 40-17. Can't explain how. Our Bottom Eight tomorrow will be MAC heavy, with Miami of Ohio joining both teams in there somewhere.
* The Sun Belt will be well represented as well, led by Appalachian St, who invited former FCS rival Liberty to town and lost in OT, 55-48. As many as five Sun Belt schools may darken the basement doors of our Bottom Eight tomorrow, as New Mexico St made their bid by losing to previously winless Troy handily, 41-24.
* When your first two plays from scrimmage are turnovers resulting in immediate TDs for your opponent, it's hard to win on the road - and sure 'nuff, Auburn fell at Mississippi St 38-23, in a battle of Tier 1 teams in the rain today. Dak Prescott's this year's Cam Newton or Tim Tebow, as CBS kept reminding us, but it's a fair comparison. Here's hoping for a pro career closer to Cam's...
*Minnesota won 24-17 on a 100-yd kickoff return after Northwestern tied the game. Great work being done at the U of M, as it is at Kentucky (cupcake winners against ULM today, but given their history, hard to argue) and at Duke, where they stomped all over 5-0 Georgia Tech after a long storm delay.
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