Australian update...

As for the AFL, hitting its midseason lull for the three bye weeks to give players a chance to recover a little bit (what LeBron James wouldn't have done for a bye week to recover during the NBA finals!), the league-leading Fremantle Dockers have finally hit a bit of a lull themselves, first losing to Richmond in week 10 and then barely hanging on to beat last-place Gold Coast by seven points this last Saturday!

This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend. 

Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.

Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:

Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).

Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).

Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)

Week 10 in footy - Freo goes DOWN!

Yes, Fremantle suffered its first defeat, oddly enough at the hands of middling Richmond and in dominating fashion, much worse than the 97-70 score indicates. Richmond scored the first five goals and never looked back, dominating the game from the opening horn. Strangely, ruckman Aaron Sandilands set another record, for positive clearances, and Richmond managed a mere 36 entries into the forward 50...yet Fremantle suffered a 27-point loss! 

Saturday's scores included a narrow Carlton loss to Adelaide, 99-90, that saw the dramatic and traumatic end to a legend's career - Chris Judd, twice a Brownlow medalist as best in the league, already in an "extra" season extending his career into 2015, blew out an ACL in the first quarter that put him on a 10-12 month rehab track that made immediate retirement a no-brainer. (Recall this post to understand what a revered player Judd is.) Other games included Sydney coasting over Gold Coast 93-41 (they never bothered getting out of first gear), Geelong holding Essendon goal-less in the first half en route to winning 122-53, and Port Adelaide surprising Western 100-62.

GWS eased over Brisbane by 30, 97-67, and Hawthorn glided past St. Kilda by a score of 132-69 on Sunday, but the big game was the Kangaroo smackdown of West Coast, pulling away to win 85-75 at the end in a wind-blown game in Tasmania. The announcers referred to it as a "four or five goal wind", meaning they expected the team playing towards the wind to score that much more - and in the first half, they weren't disappointed. But to the surprise of all in the last, North Melbourne managed to score just as many as the Eagles did to hold on for a victory.

The very Commonwealth holiday Monday matchup between Collingwood and Melbourne on the Queen's (official) Birthday went the way of the Magpies (as it seemingly always does) by 25 points, 110-85, although the Demons were tied close to three-quarter time!

This coming week is the first of three "bye" weeks, with just six games each week while a third of the teams take a hiatus to lick their wounds (and if you're Gold Coast, find enough healthy players to field a team next week). Here's the line-up:

Geelong/Port Adelaide Friday night (great game potentially! I'll take Geelong...)
Fremantle/Gold Coast Saturday afternoon (on the other hand...)
Essendon/West Coast Saturday twilight (hard to imagine the Dons winning in Perth)
Sydney/North Melbourne Saturday night (should be the Swans despite NMK's last game)
GWS/Collingwood Sunday afternoon (best game of the round - flip a coin! I'll take the Pies)
Melbourne/St. Kilda Sunday twilight (should be close - I'm thinking the Saints...)

Melvin Gordon was amazing. But you knew that.

From SI's Monday Morning QuarterBack and Peter King, this eye-opening analysis of the amazing day Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had last week against the Huskers...

Melvin Gordon, the Wisconsin running back, rushed for 359 yards Saturday … in two quarters. That was one wacky game the Heisman candidate had against Nebraska. Quarter by quarter, how Gordon set the single-season college football rushing record on a snowy Saturday in Madison:

Quarter	Carries	Yards	Average per rush	TD
1	6	49	8.2	0
2	10	189	18.9	1
3	9	170	18.9	3
4	-	-	-	-
TOTAL	25	408	16.3	4

 

Three times in 11 weeks this season has an NFL back rushed for at least 170 yards in a game—Rashad Jennings of the Giants (176 in Week 3), Mark Ingram of the Saints (172 in Week 8) and Jonas Gray of the Patriots (199 in Week 11).

Gordon did it twice Saturday, in two separate quarters. 

Pending a Steeler rout tonight, we present our Week 11 NFL rankings!

As with the college teams, we're confident enough about the progressing season to actually rank the NFL teams #1-32...

A1. Arizona Cardinals (9-1) - Hard to deny them being the favorites right now!
A2. New England Patriots (8-2) - They've now beaten all three AFC division leaders.
A3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) - Fifty points twice in a row, destroying the Eagles yesterday.
A4. Denver Broncos (7-3) - Hard for Manning to be effective throwing w/ no one 2 throw 2

B5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) - IF Romo is healthy AND DeMarco stays healthy...
B6. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
B7. Detroit Lions (7-3) - No disrespect in their loss yesterday.
B8. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) - On the other hand: where's the running game?

C9. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) - Since 0-2 start, they're on a roll...
C10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) - IF the "good Andy" shows up, they look like this...
C11. Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
C12. Miami Dolphins (6-4) - The pieces are all there: as Tannehill matures, they'll be great.

D13. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
D14. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) - Give them time; if they're healthy and clicking in December...
D15. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) - See previous comment...

D16. Cleveland Browns (6-4)
E17. San Diego Chargers (6-4)

E18. Buffalo Bills (5-5)
E19. Houston Texans (5-5) - JJ WATT for PRESIDENT! But if there's only one of him...
E20. New Orleans Saints (4-6) - Yeah, but they're losing at home now...What's next?
F21. St. Louis Rams (4-6) - #21 with a bullet: Jeff Fisher's got them looking good!

F22. Chicago Bears (4-6) - Roll the D20 for Cutler's performance: good, mediocre, or AAH!
F23. New York Giants (4-6)
F24. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) - Of the four NFC South disasters, they have the most potential.
G25. Carolina Panthers (3-7-1)
G26. Minnesota Vikings (4-6) - If they can get even mediocre play from Bridgewater...

G27. Washington Redskins (3-7)
G28. Tennessee Titans (2-7)
H29. New York Jets (2-8)

H30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8)
H31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
H32. Oakland Raiders (0-10) - For a team on a 16 game losing streak, they're ALWAYS competitive. Anytime there's a spread of more than two TDs, take it: they'll cover. They won't WIN...but they'll cover.

Montreal and Edmonton move on to the conference finals!

The Montreal Alouettes held up their end of the bargain, walloping the crossover BC Lions by a score of 50-17 (and it wasn't that close - early in the fourth, it was actually 50-3!) to move on to the Eastern Conference finals next week against their rival, the Hamilton Ti-Cats.

Meanwhile, as expected, the Edmonton Eskimos held on to a halftime lead to defeat the defending champions Saskatchewan Roughriders by a count of 18-10. They will travel to Calgary next week to play the team with the best regular-season record, the Stampeders, for the Western Conference title next weekend, with the winner advancing to the 102nd Grey Cup in Vancouver on November 30th.

Here are the links to the recaps for the two games - enjoy!

Montreal routs British Columbia to prevent a home-team-Grey Cup, 50-17.

Edmonton's 18-10 win over the Roughriders sends them to Calgary next week.

Looking at the new FOLLOWING FOOTBALL tier rankings...

...our Top 4 are Alabama, Mississippi St, Florida St, and Oregon. As we noted Saturday, we're not likely to punish a team for losing by the amount expected (the Vegas spread was seven; they lost by five), especially on the road against another Tier A school. Sure, we'll move the Tide above them, but was the Seminoles' performance against an unranked, Tier G Miami squad more impressive? No. Certainly, we're much less impressed with TCU's debacle at Kansas than anything the Bulldogs did in Tuscaloosa. If you thought they'd lose at Alabama, and they do, no worse than expected - how can you punish that? To us, this is a classic case of the loss being more impressive than TCU's win.

...We made some adjustments based on some external rankings this week, in particular Peter Wolfe and Jeff Sagarin's work, but also looking through the Massey Index we linked to last week as well. If there were virtual ties within a tier, for example, we'd often turn to those sources for a second opinion (sorting out the middle of the ACC North, for example), but on a few occasions a consensus of opinions different from ours made us re-evaluate our rankings. The most blatant example was Western Kentucky, whom we had within three tiers of the bottom all year but whom every list we consulted had up in the 80's or so. Given their recent body of work (they're up to .500 now) and those opinions, we concurred and moved them up to tier O, number 88 on your radio dial...

...Looking at the list with conferences attached (yes, that's what the lower case letters after the overall record are!), a fairly clear pattern emerges: The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt if there's an extra loss on the record, particularly the West, over the closely regarded Pac-12, Big-12, and Big-10. The ACC is probably not quite as well regarded, or schools like Duke would be higher. Then there's a bit of a gap, because it takes about a two-game better record for a school from the Mountain West or the old Big East, the AAC, to match a school from one of the Power 5. (#37 is Maryland at 6-4; #38 is Boise St at 8-2.) Then, you drop down to the MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt, all of whom lie essentially in a second division as it is (and the MW/AAC are fighting to stay above that). That's why Marshall sits in #25 with a 10-0 record: the schools in that "division" can't run with the "big boys" because they can't play the big boys. Rankings are determined first and foremost by one simple question: if these two teams played on a neutral field, who would win? The winner is ranked higher, the loser lower. Marshall's beaten everyone it's played...but would it beat any of the 24 teams above it? Arizona? Duke? Notre Dame? Oklahoma? It might even be generous to say that they'd beat the teams immediately below it...Utah? Clemson? Louisville? Miami-FL? We'd love to see them against West Virginia, given their proximity! 

...In fact, here's an interesting tidbit: The "strength of schedule" parameter for FCS defending champion North Dakota St is actually HIGHER than that of FBS Marshall! It's hard to argue that they're playing opponents that are comparable to what even Florida St is facing, much less the SEC!

...These tiers make for some strange bedfellows! Seeing Texas moving all the way up to #40, right below...East Carolina? And finding 6-4 Nevada at #59, right between North Carolina St (6-5) and North Carolina (5-5)! 

...Towards the bottom, in our attempt to keep our six-team tiers consistent (for a change, right?), we ended up with a "Bottom Two" - Georgia St and SMU. Despite the Mustangs' winless record, Georgia St is rated below them in many of the computer systems we looked through. Nevertheless, only a true #128 could lose the game Saturday the way they lost it - giving up a near-legendary twenty-one play drive over the course of the last six minutes of the game, including three fourth down conversions with the game on the line, and letting the opponent you've held scoreless for 3 1/2 quarters score the touchdown they had to score in the last six seconds to win. Amazing. (Admittedly, Idaho is close, though - losing to Tier T Troy, at home, by 17 points, when they'd been favored going in. That's impressive.)

We reveal our first full #1-128 FBS ranking of the season!

A1. Alabama (9-1) sec
A2. Mississippi St (9-1) sec
A3. Florida St (10-0) acc
A4. Oregon (9-1) pac
A5. Baylor (8-1) b12
A6. TCU (9-1) b12

B7. Ole Miss (8-2) sec
B8. Ohio St (9-1) b10
B9. Georgia (8-2) sec
B10. Mich St (8-2) b10
B11. Wisconsin (8-2) b10
B12. Auburn (7-3) sec

C13. Kansas St (7-2) b12
C14. UCLA (8-2) pac
C15. Arizona St (8-2) pac
C16. LSU (7-4) sec
C17. Nebraska (8-2) b10
C18. USC (8-3) pac

D19. Oklahoma (7-3) b12
D20. Notre Dame (7-3) ind
D21. Georgia Tech (9-2) acc
D22. Missouri (8-2) sec
D23. Arizona (8-2) pac
D24. Duke (8-2) acc

E25. Marshall (10-0) cusa
E26. Utah (7-3) pac
E27. Texas A&M (7-4) sec
E28. Clemson (7-3) acc
E29. Colorado St (9-1) mwc
E30. Minnesota (7-3) b10

F31. Louisville (7-3) acc
F32. Miami-FL (6-4) acc
F33. West Virginia (6-4) b12
F34. South Carolina (5-5) sec
F35. Florida (5-4) sec
F36. Arkansas (5-5) sec

G37. Maryland (6-4) b10
G38. Boise St (8-2) mwc
G39. East Carolina (6-3) aac
G40. Texas (6-5) b12
G41. California (5-5) pac
G42. Tennessee (5-5) sec

H43. Stanford (5-5) pac
H44. Iowa (7-3) b10
H45. Penn St (6-4) b10
H46. Memphis (7-3) aac
H47. Utah St (8-3) mwc
H48. Oklahoma St (5-5) b12

I49. Washington (6-5) pac
I50. Air Force (8-2) mwc
I51. Cincinnati (6-3) aac
I52. Oregon St (5-5) pac
I53. Rutgers (6-4) b10
I54. Kentucky (5-6) sec

J55. Boston College (6-4) acc
J56. Virginia Tech (5-5) acc
J57. BYU (6-4) ind
J58. North Carolina St (6-5) acc
J59. Nevada (6-4) mwc
J60. North Carolina (5-5) acc

K61. Central Florida (6-3) aac
K62. Northern Illinois (8-2) mac
K63. Louisiana Tech (7-3) cusa
K64. Virginia (4-6) acc
K65. Pitt (4-6) acc
K66. Navy (5-5) ind

L67. Michigan (5-5) b10
L68. UL-Lafayette (7-3) sun
L69. Toledo (6-4) mac
L70. Western Michigan (7-3) mac
L71. Northwestern (4-6) b10
L72. Houston (5-4) aac

M73. Georgia Southern (8-3) sun
M74. Temple (5-5) aac
M75. Bowling Green (7-3) mac
M76. UTEP (6-4) cusa
M77. Arkansas St (6-4) sun
M78. Central Michigan (7-4) mac

N79. San Diego St (5-5) mwc
N80. Syracuse (3-7) acc
N81. Rice (6-4) cusa
N82. Illinois (4-6) b10
N83. Washington St (3-7) pac
N84. Texas Tech (3-7) b12

O85. Wyoming (4-6) mwc
O86. Fresno St (4-6) mwc
O87. Kansas (3-7) b12
O88. Western Kentucky (5-5) cusa
O89. Purdue (3-7) b10
O90. Ohio (5-5) mac

P91. Texas St (5-5) sun
P92. UAB (5-5) cusa
P93. Colorado (2-8) pac
P94. Iowa St (2-7) b12
P95. Appalachian St (5-5) sun
P96. Middle Tennessee (5-5) cusa

Q97. South Alabama (6-4) sun
Q98. Vanderbilt (3-7) sec
Q99. Indiana (3-7) b10
Q100. FIU (4-6) cusa
Q101. UL-Monroe (3-7) sun
Q102. Hawaii (3-8) mwc

R103. South Florida (4-6) aac
R104. San Jose St (3-7) mwc
R105. Tulane (3-7) aac
R106. FAU (3-7) cusa
R107. Buffalo (4-6) mac
R108. Old Dominion (4-6) cusa

S109. New Mexico (3-7) mwc
S110. Ball St (3-7) mac
S111. Akron (4-6) mac
S112. Wake Forest (2-8) acc
S113. U Massachusetts (3-7) mac
S114. Southern Miss (3-8) cusa

T115. UTSA (3-7) sun
T116. Army (3-7) ind
T117. North Texas (3-7) cusa
T118. Miami-OH (2-9) mac
T119. Troy (3-8) sun
T120. Tulsa (2-8) aac

U121. U Connecticut (2-7) aac
U122. UNLV (2-9) mwc
U123. Eastern Michigan (2-8) mwc
U124. New Mexico St (2-8) sun
U125. Kent St (1-9) mac
U126. Idaho (1-9) sun

V127. Georgia St (1-9) sun
V128. SMU (0-9) aac

Tomorrow morning, we'll break down the Week 11 rankings, as well as post the NFL TIERS and visit the Canadian playoff victories by the two home teams, Montreal and Edmonton. But, YES, the letters are indeed the tiers, and they're all six per tier for a change!

Notes from Saturday's games

Again, our apologies for not updating yesterday - technical difficulties prevented it. Here are some of our notes from November 15th...

First, we HAVE to start with Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, who only needed three quarters to break the FBS record for rushing yards in a game. In 25 carries, he amassed 408 yards against the freak'n University of Nebraska! It's not like they played the College of Faith or something! Averaging over 16 yards a carry, he had SIX rushes of at least 35 yards, and SEVEN in which he wasn't TOUCHED for at least 20! It was his fifth 200+ yard game as a Badger. (Finally, in contrast, Wake Forest hasn't rushed for 408 all season - they have just 341 yards on 317 carries in ten games!)

Fumbles at the goal line are becoming more and more common. After the tragic (Ole Miss) and the comical (Utah), the fumbles this week were more conventional. Of primary note was the second TD Alabama scored on Mississippi St... It sure looked to this typist like the fumble came before the touchdown, and how would THAT have changed the outcome of the game?

We wrote about this yesterday, but it bears repeating: Playing the 128th best team in FBS AND BEING SHUT OUT, South Florida had to score a touchdown with about eight minutes to go in the game to close to 13-7, force a punt, and then go on what has to be the drive of the year: twenty-one plays, six minutes,  75 yards, converting three fourth downs along the way, including 4th and goal on the two with six seconds to go, which of course they converted to win the game over SMU, 14-13. What a heartbreaking way to lose!

Here are our professional games forecast for Week 11 (and CFL playoff week one!)

NFL Week 11 games

            Having spread our 32 teams out into eight tiers now, tier 1 being championship material and tier 8 being first-pick-in-the-draft material, we can start using these tiers for setting point spreads as well, always remembering that nobody has a clue how to predict NFL games! Got that? All right, then – here we go!

Buffalo @ Miami (Thur 6:30 pm)

            5-4 tier 5 @ 5-4 tier 4. Miami by 5. Vegas says by 5 ½. Dolphins won 22-9.

Minnesota @ Chicago (Sun 11 am)

            4-5 tier 6 @ 3-6 tier 7. Bears by 1. Vegas says by 3 ½. Bears won 21-13.

Houston @ Cleveland (Sun 11 am)

            4-5 tier 6 @ 6-3 tier 3. Browns by 9. Vegas says 3 ½. Houston upset the Browns, 23-7. Vegas' point, 1-0.

Seattle @ Kansas City (Sun 11 am)

            6-3 tier 4 v. 6-3 tier 4. Chiefs by 3. Vegas says Seahawks by 1. Chiefs won, 24-20. Our point: 1-1!

Atlanta @ Carolina (Sun 11 am)

            3-6 tier 7 @ 3-5-1 tier 5. Panthers by 7. Vegas says by 3. Atlanta blocked a field goal to win the game, 19-17.

Cincinnati @ New Orleans (Sun 11 am)

            5-3-1 tier 3 @ 4-5 tier 5. Saints by 1. Vegas says by 7. The Bengals pull the upset IN New Orleans, 27-10, so we win this "bet". FF up 2-1.

Tampa Bay @ Washington (Sun 11 am)

            1-8 tier 8 @ 3-6 tier 6. Redskins by 7. Vegas agrees. And we were both wrong...27-7, Bucs.

Denver @ St. Louis (Sun 11 am)

            7-2 tier 1 @ 3-6 tier 7. Broncos by 9. Vegas says by 10 ½. When you've got Shaun Hill going 20-29 w no interceptions, and "Greg The Leg" Zeurlein kicking five FGs, plus three injured receivers for the Broncos, you get a 22-7 Rams victory.

San Francisco @ New Jersey Giants (Sun 11 am)

            5-4 tier 5 @ 3-6 tier 6. Giants by 1. Vegas says the 49ers by 4 ½. And the Niners won by six, 16-10. Point, Vegas, score is 2-2. So we call the contest a tie this week.

Oakland @ San Diego (Sun 2:05 pm)

            0-9 tier 8 @ 5-4 tier 4. Chargers by 11. Vegas says by 10. The Raiders said seven. They may have lost 16 in a row, but they seem to always play close games!

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (Sun 2:25 pm)

            6-2 tier 2 @ 6-3 tier 1. Packers by 4. Vegas says by 7. On the other hand, the Packers are on a ROLL. 53 points without seeming to try hard against a division leader - ridiculous.

Detroit @ Arizona (Sun 2:25 pm)

            7-2 tier 2 @ 8-1 tier 1. AZ lost its QB. Arizona by (less than) 5. Vegas says by 1, which given the circumstances makes more sense. Great game! A superb defensive struggle in which AZ put up two quick TDs and made them hold up for 50 more minutes against Stafford, Megatron, and the Lions, 14-6.

New England @ Indianapolis (6:30 pm)

            7-2 tier 1 @ 6-3 tier 2. Colts by 1. Vegas says by 2 ½. And the Pats made it clear who the best in the AFC is: New England 42, Indy 20.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (Mon 6:20 pm)

            6-4 tier 3 @ 2-7 tier 8. Steelers by 7. Vegas says by 5 ½.

The thing about those picks, to us, is that our instincts say that the Vegas line makes perfect sense: Houston could very well stay close to the Browns; Seattle "should" be able to beat KC, the Saints at home are a juggernaut; and the 49ers "should" be the favorite as well. But we'll stick with the tiers and see what happens! (There's no money riding on it, after all - this is all fun and games!)

And the CFL PLAYOFFS start this weekend!

BC Lions @ Montreal Alouettes (Sun 1 pm) – West semifinal

            Both 9-9 teams; both looked poor last week. Home field advantage will be important… Montreal by 3.

Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Edmonton Eskimos (Sun 4:30 pm) – East semifinal

            Eskimos finished 12-6, the Roughriders 10-8. MMQB “leans towards the Eskimos”, and we do too. Edmonton by 5.

As for the FCS games of interest yesterday,

...let's start with our usual topic of intrigue, really bad teams. Of course, if you're in the Ivy League, you're allowed to be good, bad, or indifferent about football - you're too busy getting ready to run our country in the coming years. 

But in Cornell @ Columbia, two winless teams squared off. Sagarin had this projected as a 3-point Cornell win, and the Big Red did win, 30-27. But the how and why are hysterical: each team scored four touchdowns, but Cornell blocked the extra point on Columbia's last TD and ran it back for their own two point conversion, making it 27-23 at the time and setting the stage for their own game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. 

As for the three other bottom-feeders we follow (three?), Rhode Island actually put up a fight at Stony Brook, losing 14-35. But good ol' Savannah St managed zero points, negative 8 yards rushing, and just 165 yards of total offense in the entire game in losing to North Carolina A&T 34-0. In the true tradition of a body-bag school, Savannah goes to BYU next week, where the early Sagarin ratings list them as potentially a 54-point underdog. And history says they'll lie down and take their beating appropriately.

Who's the third bottom-feeder? In two of those ratings that we linked you to earlier this week, we noticed that there's a team below both URI and Savannah St: Davidson, Stephen Curry's alma mater, apparently doesn't play football as well as they do hoops. They have a record of 1-10 this year, having lost nine straight against FCS opponents and one more to Catawba, who we think is D2. Their one victory was to "College of Faith-Charleston", for whom we cannot even find a listing at any level of NCAA or NAIA, 56-0.

Anyway, playing Marist yesterday, Davidson was down 38-0 with a minute to go in the third, having produced a total of two first downs and 58 yards of offense. As Marist started their mass substitutions, Davidson finally produced a twelve-play, TWO yard drive (that required getting to a 3rd down on the Marist 16 and then ending fourth down at midfield!), which was finally followed by a 13-play drive in the fourth against the last-stringers that scored a late TD to make the score 38-7. It'd be fun to watch them play Savannah St...

In higher-quality news, North Dakota St started a new winning streak, beating Missouri St 45-10, while their vanquisher Northern Iowa also won, beating Southern Illinois 40-21. And out in the Big Sky conference, we were happy to see alma mater Sacramento St win 48-41 at home against Portland St! Montana St held off Idaho St at home 44-39, and Montana beat Southern Utah 35-17.

Our Week 11 experimental predictions! AND RESULTS!

   Alright, we’ve put together what our tier system suggests the difference between two teams playing games this week should be. Now, we’re going to compare those to what the professionals in Las Vegas are posting as betting spreads. Remember, this is an exercise for amusement purposes only! Our numbers are NOT exact by any means, and the betting lines are as much a prediction of public perception as they are actual predictions about the games to come.

   There are seventeen games in which the line differs from our numbers enough to overcome the margin of variation in our work; they’re marked in red like this. Let’s track those this week and see how we do - if the game lands on OUR side of the casino line, we'll count it a win! And in updating this post, we'll be adding in scores in purple, like this, so we can all keep track of how it went! (EDIT: Technical problems prevented upload of the updates of this blog entry Saturday.)

Akron @ Buffalo (Tues 6 pm MST) - MAC

            Tiers R @ R means Buffalo by 3. Vegas picks Akron by 3. Score: Buffalo 55-24! FF 1, Vegas 0!

Toledo @ Northern Illinois (Tues 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers L @ I means NIU by 7. Score: NIU 27-24. No Vegas line, but we hit that one pretty close! 

Ball St @ U Mass (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers R @ T means an EVEN game. Vegas picks Massachusetts by 3. UMass won by two touchdowns (24-10, but they had mirror image drives for the first 20 minutes or so! It looked so promising for us!), so point, Vegas. FF 1, Vegas 1.

Kent St @ Bowling Green (Wed 6 pm) - MAC

            Tiers U @ K- means BGSU by 17. Vegas says BGSU by 13. Bowling Green 30-20.

East Carolina @ Cincinnati (Thur 5 pm) - AAC

            Tiers F @ I means ECU by 2. Vegas says by 1.  ECU won 54-46.

Southern Miss @ UTSA (Thur 6 pm) - CUSA

            Tiers R- @ S means UTSA by 2. Vegas picks them by 9. UTSA won 12-10...by TWO! We lead, 2-1! (Extra credit for nailing the spread exactly?)

Cal-Berkeley @ Southern Cal (Thur 7 pm) - PAC

            Tiers G @ C- means USC by 8. Vegas picks them by 14 ½. This could be a fascinating game! Depending on conditions and the way they choose to play it, the score might be 20-17…or 120-117! USC ends up winning by exactly 8! Cal made it close after a 31-2 first 27 minutes to make us look brilliant, and now it's FF 3, plus two Bingos, Vegas 1!

Tulsa @ Central Florida (Fri 6 pm) - AAC

            Tiers T @ L means UCF by 15. Vegas says it’s by 18. And UCF said it would be 24, winning 31-7.

Iowa @ Illinois (Sat 10 am MST) – Big 10

            Tiers H @ N means Iowa by 6. Vegas says 5 ½. Iowa win 30-14.

South Carolina @ Florida (Sat 10 am) – SEC

            Tiers G @ F- means Florida by 4. Vegas says FLA by 6. Which USC shows up? Can Florida win without that modern invention of “throwing the ball”? Stay tuned!  And thanks to a  blocked FG under 4 min to go, a blocked punt under a minute, and a "dribble-touchdown" by the Gamecocks with 12 seconds to go, USC got into overtime and won there, 23-20. Head Ball Coach Magic!

Army @ Western Kentucky (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers R @ S means WKU by 1. Vegas says the spread is 10 ½! We lost this one: WKU won 52-24, so now it's FF 3, Vegas 2.

Ohio St @ Minnesota (Sat 10 am) – Big 10

            Tiers B+ @ E means OSU by 3. Vegas favors them by 12. The pieces are all there: OSU just had a huge prime time win over the Spartans, and they could very well overlook the Gophers the way they overlooked the Hokies! Even though the chart says Buckeyes, we’re thinking Gophers! With the Gophers fighting back to within 7 (OSU won 31-24), we have to call this a draw. However...why did Jerry Kill kick the FG so early, with 1:23 to go, on second down? Why not try for the TD when you're inside the 20?

Temple @ Penn St (Sat 10 am)

            Tiers K @ H means Penn St by 7. Vegas picks them by 9. That is, assuming either teams scores seven points… PSU did: Nittany Lions won 30-13.

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers E @ D means GT by 5. Vegas says it'll be Clemson by 3! The Ramblin’ Wreck is on a ramblin’ roll and could very well steamroll the Tigers at home; we’re kinda partial to GT anyway, but our hunch is to disagree with the “system”… AND they rolled, all right: Georgia Tech 28, Clemson 6. Back-up Clemson QB Cole Standt completed six of his 11 passes: three to Clemson players, three to Yellowjackets! (His one TD went the wrong way, too.) FF 4, Vegas 2!

Virginia Tech @ Duke (Sat 10 am) – ACC

            Tiers D+ @ K means Duke by 8. Vegas says 7. We were both wrong. Va-Tech upsets the Blue Devils (strange sentence to write!), 17-16. So much for Duke's faint playoff hopes...

Pitt @ North Carolina (Sat 10:30 am) – ACC

            Tiers J @ J means UNC by 3. Vegas says 2. Carolina won a great back-n-forth game by five, 40-35.

Miami-OH @ Central Michigan (Sat 11 am) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means CMU by 14. Vegas lists the spread as 15. CMU by 7, 34-27.

Nevada @ Air Force (Sat noon) – MW

            Tiers J @ H means AFA by 6. Vegas says it's more like 2 1/2. It took overtime for Air Force to win by 7...and we always think that should count as a "win by zero", personally.

Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (Sat noon) – MAC

            Tiers T @ M means WMU by 14. Vegas favors Western by 25 ½. And we both underestimated: 51-7. So, point Vegas...FF 4, Vegas 3.

Rice @ Marshall (Sat 12:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers M @ E means Marshall by 15. The pro spread is 20. Final score 41-14, Thundering Herd. (They almost ended the night as the ONLY unbeaten...)

Wake Forest @ North Carolina St (Sat 1 pm) – ACC

            Tiers Q @ J means NCSU by 14. Vegas agrees (well, 13 ½). Wolfpack 42-13.

Texas Christian @ Kansas (Sat 1 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers A @ Q means TCU by 21. Vegas goes up to 27, but we’ll say close enough. In the best "almost-upset" of the year, TCU had to come from behind in the second half and won by four, 34-30. Good on ya, Jayhawks! That was more impressive than your actual win last week! Would it have been appropriate or understandable for the fans to storm the field after a close loss to the #4 team, given Kansas' history?

Appalachian St @ Arkansas St (Sat 1 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers R+ @ M means Ark St by 9. Vegas says it’ll be 14. UPSET, App St! 37-32!

Indiana @ Rutgers (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers P @ I means Rutgers by 13. Vegas argues it’ll only be a 7 point game. And WE WIN this one: 45-23, Scarlet Knights! FF 5, Vegas 3!

Mississippi St @ Alabama (Sat 1:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers A @ A means ‘Bama by 3. Vegas picks the Tide by 7. This is IT! This is the game of the season, in our opinion. Finish your chores, get your snacks and beverages ready, and settle in. The two best teams in the country: Nick Saban and the unbeatable multiple champion Crimson Tide host the upstarts from Mississippi, where nothing ever goes right…except THIS year, this “sold their soul to the devil” year. Our greatest wish is that the game lives up to the billing! A game that lived up to its billing. Would the "fumble" at the goal line the officials originally gave to MSU (correctly, it seemed to us) really have made the TD swing that would have prevented a 25-20 Bulldog loss? Impossible to tell, but Mississippi St won't drop out of Tier A on our ranking because they lost by the expected spread on the home field of another Tier A team! As for the oddsmakers, 5 points splits the difference - call it a draw.

Georgia Southern @ Navy (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers K @ L means Navy by 1. Vegas stretches that to 3 ½. Navy stretches it to 33 (52-19).

Memphis @ Tulane (Sat 1:30 pm) – AAC

            Tiers J @ Q means Memphis by 8. Vegas makes it 10. Memphis made it 31.

Nebraska @ Wisconsin (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers B @ D means an EVEN game. Wisconsin’s a 6 point favorite in Nevada. And brother, were they right! We'll post about Melvin Gordon's day elsewhere today, but 408 rushing yards in three quarters is as eye opening as it gets. We wish they'd left him in there to hit five hundred...the 59-24 annihilation of the Huskers makes it FF 5, Vegas 4.

Northwestern @ Notre Dame (Sat 1:30 pm)

            Tiers N @ B means ND by 21. It’s 16 ½ in Vegas’ eyes. Notre Dame found an impressive way to give the game away yesterday. A first quarter blocked XP run back for two, the decision to make that up too early by Coach Kelly, the 4-to-go TD w/ 2-pt conversion, last second 47 yard FG and game winning 41 yard FG by a kicker who'd never kicked a thirty-yarder before yesterday...Amazing. 43-40, NU.

Middle Tennessee @ Florida International (Sat 1:30 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers O- @ R means MTSU by 2. Vegas favors them by 4. MTSU 38-28.

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (Sat 1:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers E @ N means OU by 10. Vegas picks the Sooners by 14. Sooners split the difference, 42-30.

Washington @ Arizona (Sat 1:30 pm) – PAC

            Tiers H- @ C means Arizona by 11. The difference is 8 ½ in Vegas. It was "one" on the field, 27-26, and "won" on the sideline, when our favorite coach, Chris Petersen, tried to ice the kicker but instead cancelled out the game-losing FG by Arizona, who then made the second chance to win it. Heartbreaking for UW - they deserved to win the game.

New Mexico @ Utah St (Sat 2 pm) – MW

            Tiers S+ @ G- means USU by 19. Vegas says 16. The Aggies barely hung on, 28-21.

Kentucky @ Tennessee (Sat 2 pm) – SEC

            Tiers G @ I means an EVEN game. The spread in Vegas is Tennessee by 7 ½! One of a half-dozen pick’em games this weekend in our eyes, some being traditional rivalries like this one. We lean towards UK. We just have too much faith in the Wildcats. Early season form has failed to hold - 50-16, UT. Vegas 5, FF 5.

Hawaii @ San Jose St (Sat 2:30 pm) – MW

            Tiers S @ P- means SJSU by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. Amazingly, the Warriors shut out an opponent on the road, 13-0! Poor Spartans have fallen on hard times, too.

Troy @ Idaho (Sat 3 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers T @ U means Idaho by 1. Vegas says the Vandals by 5. Should've known. Given a home game they should win, the Vandals folded like a bedsheet: awkwardly and crumpled. 34-17, Trojans.

Utah @ Stanford (Sat 4 pm) – PAC

            Tiers D @ H means Utah by 3. Vegas takes Stanford by 7! Utah wins a game that went to OT just 7-7, scoring a TD in the second OT to win 20-17. FF 6, Vegas 5, just barely.

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Louisiana-Monroe (Sat 5 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers L @ P- means Lafayette by 4. Vegas picks them by 7 ½. Lafayette 34-27,

Nevada-Las Vegas @ Brigham Young (Sat 5 pm)

            Tiers S @ L means BYU by 14. Vegas gives the Cougars a 24 point gap! Split the difference: 19 points, 42-23, although UNLV gave them a great battle in the first half. Call it a draw.

Auburn @ Georgia (Sat 5:15 pm) – SEC

            Tiers B @ C means Georgia by 1. Casinos are pitching 2 ½ points. Once again, Georgia demonstrates how overpowering they can be, walloping top-level Auburn 34-7.

Texas St @ South Alabama (Sat 5:30 pm) – Sun Belt

            Tiers O @ Q means an EVEN game. Vegas chooses Texas St by 4. And South Alabama won, 24-20!  Make it 7-5, FF!

Texas @ Oklahoma St (Sat 5:30 pm) – Big 12

            Tiers I @ G means an EVEN game. Vegas recommends Texas by 2. Glad this wasn't one we'd "bet" on - the Longhorns looked lethal last night, winning 28-7. Impressive victory for Charlie Strong.

Missouri @ Texas A&M (Sat 5:30 pm) – SEC

            Tiers D @ F means an EVEN game. Vegas says A&M by 5 ½. (Really?) Sorry, Pastor, but we were right: although the Aggies led much of the first half, the Tigers had much more to play for: 34-27. Mizzou. FF 8, Vegas 5.

LSU @ Arkansas (Sat 6 pm) – SEC

            Tiers C @ H means LSU by 5. Vegas chooses Arkansas by 2 ½! And they were right. The Razorbacks managed to shut out LSU 17-0. Point, Vegas: 8-6, FF.

Florida St @ Miami-FL (Sat 6 pm)

            Tiers A @ F means FSU by 5. Or take 2 ½, according to Nevada oddsmakers. Hard to see the Hurricanes staying that close, but for Winston to keep up his last-moment savior rep, s’pose that’s the way it’ll have to be! Great game for Al Golden, Duke Johnson, and the Hurricanes, but it seems that was necessary for the "Jamies Magic" to save the day, 30-26. Amazing. No one wants to call them #1, but the defending champs are still undefeated, and would you really want to bet against them if they somehow still have number 5 behind center?

South Florida @ Southern Methodist (Sat 6 pm) – AAC

            Tiers P @ U- means USF by 7. Vegas says the spread is 10. ONLY SMU could lose a game like this! More about this game in another post, but after being shut out for 3 1/2 quarters, the Bulls went on a six-minute, game-ending, 21 play drive (you read that right: twenty-one plays!) that included three successful fourth down conversions and ended in a touchdown pass (on fourth down, of course) to win the game, 14-13. Glad the Mustangs showed some life, but HOLY CATFISH! What a way to lose the game!

Michigan St @ Maryland (Sat 6 pm) – Big 10

            Tiers C+ @ F means Michigan St by 2. Vegas chooses the Spartans by 11! And they were half right - Spartans by 22, 37-15. Point Vegas, but it's too late: FOLLOWING FOOTBALL 8, VEGAS 7! Huzzah! Three cheers for a meaningless victory for us!

North Texas @ Texas-El Paso (Sat 8 pm) – CUSA

            Tiers R @ M means UTEP by 10. The line is 6 ½ in Las Vegas.  We were closer, for what it's worth: 35-17, Miners by 18.

San Diego St @ Boise St (Sat 8:15 pm) – MW

            Tiers N @ G- means BSU by 13. It’s 14 in Vegas. SDSU is a tough out for the Broncos, and it showed again last night: it took four quarters for Boise to pull out a 37-29 victory.

Arizona St @ Oregon St (Sat 8:45 pm) – PAC

            Tiers B @ J means ASU by 7. The line is 9 in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 has to rest its hopes on the Ducks now, as the Sun Devils fell after midnight last night, 35-27, to a very good OSU team that's completely capable of ruining Oregon's season in the Civil War in two weeks, too!

So, if you're keeping track, of the fifteen games that our predictions differed significantly enough from Vegas that we'd have been interested in wagering on the games, we were on the winning side of the margin 8 out of 15 times, with three draws. (If we'd have bet those, we'd have won, but our game here was who was closer with their prediction, not were we on the winning side.) Going back through all fifty games, if we'd simply bet a dollar on the spread of every one of those fifty games given how our tier-tracker predicted, we'd have won four bucks - we went 27 and 23. Again, do NOT use our forecasts for gambling purposes. But it's fun to track, and it gives us a better idea when we're watching a true upset in the making! Thanks for playing along!