Looking through the oddsmakers' choices and spreads (and again, we do not advocate betting on football or any sport! It's just a device we use to estimate probable outcomes of games!), there aren't very many spots where we disagree with Vegas. Here are the most obvious:
In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!
We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!
We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.
Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.
Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!
In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.
Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title.
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