So, here is our new regular Wednesday feature, PROPHECIES IN FOOTBALL, which just means we're going to condense our weekly predictions into one post each week, on Wednesdays, where you can count on finding them the same time and place each week.
(And of course, if you're new to Following Football ACNC, you ought to know that our track record across the different forms of football is unmatched! Whether it's American college or pro, where we were consistently ahead of th Vegas pros all year long in 2014, or in Canada, where went a perfect 5-0 last Grey Cup playoff season and sit up in the top third so far of predictors in this topsy-turvy CFL season, or in Australia, where our record this season is in the top 1% of all punters in Australia for AFL predictions.... We know our stuff!)
So, we'll start with the NFL, which starts week 1 of its preseason tomorrow with a slate of games. If you bet preseason NFL games, you need psychological help, so we're NOT feeding your addiction by guessing at games where coaches may or may not play starters at all. But a few games stand out as interesting: Green Bay at New England Thursday evening, without Brady, of course (not enough pressure for him), but Rodgers should see one series; the Jets, of course, play tomorrow at Detroit, home of auto wrecks; Buffalo, where Rex Ryan just pickd up his old linebacker just released by his old team (we give him a puncher's chance of making the team!), plays Friday; Jaxville debuts their new QB Friday night, while Tampa goes to Minnesota to unveil theirs against a team with a win under their belt already; for us Northwesterners, Denver goes to Seattle Friday night; and Philly unveils whatever it now has on the roster against Indy Sunday night on the NFL Network.
In the CFL, where five teams whare the lead with 4-2 records, including last year's expansion Ottawa Redblacks, who won half that total in 18 tries last year! In fact, only two teams are below .500: Winnipeg at 3-4, and Saskatchewan, on a bye at 0-7! This weekend, we see Edmonton over Montreal (favored by one) in Montreal; Toronto should go to Winnipeg and win easily with the Bombers breaking in a new QB (what else is new in Canada?); Hamilton has NEVER lost in their year-old home stadium, and won't this week against BC; and while Ottawa has been great, and a win wouldn't shock, defending champ Calgary got last week off and is 4-0 at home, so we see them winning Saturday. (Given how this ludicrous season has gone, where oddsmakers have picked the wrong team more than 60% of the time this season!, you should go AGAINST our picks, since we agree with the other experts in general this week!)
Finally, down under, we are just four weeks from the end of the season and finals month in September! Fremantle has the top spot just about locked down anyway at 16-2, but can clinch it by beating western rival West Coast Sunday, which we're predicting they'll do with superstar Nat Fyfe back, and the Eagles' star ruck Nic Nat gone for the week following the death of his mother. Also on Sunday, Richmond and Western will continue their quests for spots in the crucial top four with home wins against Gold Coast and Melbourne, respectively. (No champion has come from outside the top four since the current "double chance" finals system was instituted in 1997.)
On Friday, Sydney hosts Collingwood and (even without superstud Lance Franklin) should add to the Magpies' epic second half collapse with a win to push back into the fourth position. Saturday, Adelaide goes to Essendon and destroys the already dessicated remains of a once-proud Bomber franchise; North Melbourne "hosts" St. Kilda in Hobart, Tasmania (surprisingly close by), and except for the fact that their performance bounces up and down like their Kangaroo namesake, should win comfortably against the surprisingly decent Saints.
The last three games are the toughest to call. At home, Port Adelaide SHOULD beat the Giants, who have a ton of injuries but continue to battle for a first-ever spot in finals in their fourth year. But they may have "put the cue in the rack", as they say, and GWS has EVERYTHING to fight for...Despite being fifteen point dogs, I'm taking GWS in an upset. Geelong used to have Hawthorn's number; for something like five years, the "Kennett Curse" kept the Hawks from beating Gerlong, until the critical prelim final two seasons ago. Now, it's easy to take Hawthorn again, although personally I'm betting the "over" (181) rather than the winner (prob Hawthorn). Last, the Battle for the Wooden Spoon between three-win Carlton and home team Brisbane, with just two wins this year. The Lions are favored, at home, but I think not only does The Blues have more talent, I think the Lions want that top draft pick more. Carlton in an "upset".
Our record so far this season: 112-60 in the AFL, 12-12 in the CFL (well above average, as we said!), 0-0 in the NFL and NCAA.
Showing posts with label Week 8. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 8. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Week 8 down under...
Results of Round 8...
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43
The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go!
Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.
At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...
...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.
In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).
Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!
Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)
Geelong def. Carlton 140-63
West Coast def. St. Kilda 131-78
GWS def. Adelaide 108-84
Collingwood def. Gold Coast 132-63
Sydney def. Hawthorn 73-69
Fremantle def. No. Melbourne 115-42
Essendon def. Brisbane 136-78
Melbourne def. Western 103-64
Richmond def. Port Adelaide 76-43
The AFL ladder right now...
Fremantle is still two games clear, and with Sydney's revenge win over the Hawks (possibly the game of the year so far!), Freo has four games clear of Hawthorn with 14 to go!
Two games back at 6-2 are Sydney and two surprises: West Coast (who will find out in the next four weeks if they're real or not, playing three finalists) and Greater Western, who won three in a row for the first time ever. To put the Giants' success in perspective: the best season in GWS' history, 2014, was 6-16. They're already 6-2 this season.
At 5-3 comes two teams who (while firmly in the top 8 right now) have questionable credentials given the quality of teams they've beaten: Collingwood and Adelaide. Right behind them are six teams fighting for the last finals spots - Hawthorn (very likely), Richmond (see Collingwood), Essendon (who knows?), Geelong (looking more and more probable), Western (depends which game you watch!), and North Melbourne (who may be as talented as anybody, but...). If you give the top four credit for likely making the playoffs, the next four most likely to last the season might be Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, and maybe Western. But it's a long season...
...and Port Adelaide is still lurking there at 3-5, if they can return to earlier form. Their partner at 3-5 is Melbourne, but those were three upsets. Below them are St. Kilda and Brisbane, with two upsets in eight attempts, and 1-7 disasters Gold Coast and Carlton.
In the FF Rating system,
Hawthorn still leads with an 85.3 rating (it doesn't hurt that they lose by four and win by a hundred), but Fremantle has crept within a few points to 81.8 (a jump of thirteen points since round 1). Right behind them are Sydney (no surprise, 76.5) and West Coast (yes surprise, 74.1).
Then there's a huge clump sitting in spots #5-13, all close to the average score of 50: Geelong (58.3), Adelaide (56.5), Port Adelaide (55.0, despite recent losses), North Melbourne (54.3), Collingwood (53.6), Richmond (53.1), Essendon and GWS (51.7), and if we stretch the definition, Western (40.6, but until their last two big losses they were also around 50). You see why it should be hard to predict these games!
Below that, you have Melbourne (29.8), Gold Coast (who's dropped all the way to 23.3), Brisbane (21.6), St. Kilda (actually increased to 16.0) and lowly Carlton, who's lost 23 points this year and sits at a 14.3 rating. (Gold Coast has also dropped 23 points, and Port has lost 17. On the other side, GWS is up 20, Collingwood up 17, West Coast 15 and Fremantle 13 since March!)
Thursday, May 21, 2015
Comparing expectations to reality in the AFL...
It's always interesting to compare what a team "should" be doing (which only means what we on the "outside" thought we knew!) with how they're actually doing, and with a third of the footy season behind us, here's a peek at the AFL ladder...
TEAM (Current record, betting odds record, FF rating predictions, original FF and Sports Fan predictions)
Fremantle 7-0 7-1 8-0 15-7 14-8
West Coast 5-2 6-2 6-2 8-14 8-14
Sydney 5-2 5-3 5-3 18-4 16-6
Adelaide 5-2 6-2 7-1 14-7-1 13-9
GWS 5-2 5-3 5-3 10-11-1 7-15
Hawthorn 4-3 8-0 8-0 19-3 19-3
Collingwood 4-3 5-3 5-3 7-15 10-12
Western 4-3 2-6 2-6 9-12-1 5-17
N. Melbourne 4-3 4-4 4-4 18-4 15-7
Richmond 3-4 5-3 6-2 12-10 11-11
Essendon 3-4 4-4 4-4 11-11 11-11
Port Adelaide 3-4 6-2 6-2 15-7 17-5
Geelong 3-4 3-5 2-6 13-9 13-9
St. Kilda 2-5 0-8 0-8 2-20 3-19
Melbourne 2-5 0-8 0-8 5-17 5-17
Brisbane 2-5 1-6-1 1-7 6-15-1 10-12
Gold Coast 1-6 2-5-1 3-5 12-10 13-9
Carlton 1-6 2-6 2-6 3-19 8-14
Evaluating "how your team is doing" isn't always as simple as looking at their record. For example, the difference between Hawthorn and Western is marked, even though both are 4-3 right now. The Hawks, according to "punters", should have won all their games so far, but only have four wins to show for their efforts so far. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs (favored this week for only the second time) "should" have only won one game so far this year, but have managed to go 4-3 (and lost to Fremantle only at the moment of climax). By that, we understand why Doggie fans are happier than boosters of the reigning champs.
But more subtle than that, look at Geelong. Given the tough games they've had so far, they're faring as well as can be expected - so 13-9 doesn't look like it's out of range yet at all. For that matter, Melbourne fans look at their record, include the fact that they're winning games they weren't expected to win, and dream of maybe sneaking up the ladder farther than their 5-17 expectation.
There is some deception here, though. Gold Coast, for example, very quickly and obviously was NOT the team we thought they'd be when they came into the season, so their game-by-game predictions are not significantly better than their record. In reverse, West Coast has the same situation: very quickly it became clear that their injuries weren't going to be the problem we'd thought going into the season.
What do we expect going forward from here? I'd be surprised if Fremantle didn't keep up in the top two or so, barring major injuries or other issues unforeseen. West Coast still has some proving to do, since their record so far reflects the weaker teams they've beaten, but their play has been impressive. The vulnerable team at 5-2 besides them is the loser of the GWS-Adelaide game Saturday, whom Hawthorn would pass with a victory at the MCG against Sydney (not a foregone conclusion at all). The vulnerable team at 4-3 is still Collingwood, whose early fixture has had its share of lumps. It's hard not to see Port Adelaide finding some better form and moving up. Richmond has already seen its easy part of the schedule, and Essendon's dealing with outside issues again, and Geelong has a puncher's chance if they've really found a way to win without speed - but I'm skeptical.
What about this weekend? The betting public and Following Football each have Geelong over Carlton Friday night (meaning 4 am here in Idaho), West Coast over St. Kilda (big), Collingwood over Gold Coast, and Fremantle at home over North Melbourne on Saturday. We agree on Hawthorn beating Sydney again in the grand final rematch, but only because it IS in the MCG, where Hawthorn calls home. The rating system disagrees with punters in the GWS/Adelaide game: it lists the Crows as 4 point favorites, but the humans are putting money on GWS and the line's getting higher and higher in their favor (11.5 points GWS's favor this morning). On Sunday, we all have Essendon over Brisbane, Western over Melbourne, and Port Adelaide having enough to make it past Richmond at home, although I'm taking the Tigers and the 20 points myself.
TEAM (Current record, betting odds record, FF rating predictions, original FF and Sports Fan predictions)
Fremantle 7-0 7-1 8-0 15-7 14-8
West Coast 5-2 6-2 6-2 8-14 8-14
Sydney 5-2 5-3 5-3 18-4 16-6
Adelaide 5-2 6-2 7-1 14-7-1 13-9
GWS 5-2 5-3 5-3 10-11-1 7-15
Hawthorn 4-3 8-0 8-0 19-3 19-3
Collingwood 4-3 5-3 5-3 7-15 10-12
Western 4-3 2-6 2-6 9-12-1 5-17
N. Melbourne 4-3 4-4 4-4 18-4 15-7
Richmond 3-4 5-3 6-2 12-10 11-11
Essendon 3-4 4-4 4-4 11-11 11-11
Port Adelaide 3-4 6-2 6-2 15-7 17-5
Geelong 3-4 3-5 2-6 13-9 13-9
St. Kilda 2-5 0-8 0-8 2-20 3-19
Melbourne 2-5 0-8 0-8 5-17 5-17
Brisbane 2-5 1-6-1 1-7 6-15-1 10-12
Gold Coast 1-6 2-5-1 3-5 12-10 13-9
Carlton 1-6 2-6 2-6 3-19 8-14
Evaluating "how your team is doing" isn't always as simple as looking at their record. For example, the difference between Hawthorn and Western is marked, even though both are 4-3 right now. The Hawks, according to "punters", should have won all their games so far, but only have four wins to show for their efforts so far. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs (favored this week for only the second time) "should" have only won one game so far this year, but have managed to go 4-3 (and lost to Fremantle only at the moment of climax). By that, we understand why Doggie fans are happier than boosters of the reigning champs.
But more subtle than that, look at Geelong. Given the tough games they've had so far, they're faring as well as can be expected - so 13-9 doesn't look like it's out of range yet at all. For that matter, Melbourne fans look at their record, include the fact that they're winning games they weren't expected to win, and dream of maybe sneaking up the ladder farther than their 5-17 expectation.
There is some deception here, though. Gold Coast, for example, very quickly and obviously was NOT the team we thought they'd be when they came into the season, so their game-by-game predictions are not significantly better than their record. In reverse, West Coast has the same situation: very quickly it became clear that their injuries weren't going to be the problem we'd thought going into the season.
What do we expect going forward from here? I'd be surprised if Fremantle didn't keep up in the top two or so, barring major injuries or other issues unforeseen. West Coast still has some proving to do, since their record so far reflects the weaker teams they've beaten, but their play has been impressive. The vulnerable team at 5-2 besides them is the loser of the GWS-Adelaide game Saturday, whom Hawthorn would pass with a victory at the MCG against Sydney (not a foregone conclusion at all). The vulnerable team at 4-3 is still Collingwood, whose early fixture has had its share of lumps. It's hard not to see Port Adelaide finding some better form and moving up. Richmond has already seen its easy part of the schedule, and Essendon's dealing with outside issues again, and Geelong has a puncher's chance if they've really found a way to win without speed - but I'm skeptical.
What about this weekend? The betting public and Following Football each have Geelong over Carlton Friday night (meaning 4 am here in Idaho), West Coast over St. Kilda (big), Collingwood over Gold Coast, and Fremantle at home over North Melbourne on Saturday. We agree on Hawthorn beating Sydney again in the grand final rematch, but only because it IS in the MCG, where Hawthorn calls home. The rating system disagrees with punters in the GWS/Adelaide game: it lists the Crows as 4 point favorites, but the humans are putting money on GWS and the line's getting higher and higher in their favor (11.5 points GWS's favor this morning). On Sunday, we all have Essendon over Brisbane, Western over Melbourne, and Port Adelaide having enough to make it past Richmond at home, although I'm taking the Tigers and the 20 points myself.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Bill Barnwell nails it, as usual
We briefly touched upon the football-like substance which we exported to London last weekend, and the horrors that it invoked - the game was so badly played and coached that even the British fans booed! Can't you imagine how a knowledgeable American audience would've reacted?
Anyway, Bill Barnwell of Grantland does an amazing job (as he always does) of diving into the manure pile of a game that was Detroit 22, Atlanta 21. It was tempting, I'm sure, for the NFL to revoke their passports, but then Roger Goodell's long time dream of having a football team in London would die a painful death (because the Brits would never forgive us for this debacle - bad enough we keep sending them the Raiders and Jaguars!
Anyway, Bill Barnwell of Grantland does an amazing job (as he always does) of diving into the manure pile of a game that was Detroit 22, Atlanta 21. It was tempting, I'm sure, for the NFL to revoke their passports, but then Roger Goodell's long time dream of having a football team in London would die a painful death (because the Brits would never forgive us for this debacle - bad enough we keep sending them the Raiders and Jaguars!
Don't blame US if the pro tiers for Week 8 are imbalanced!
Blame the teams! We literally gave up trying to make the number of teams in each tier balance and went back to our guiding principle: Put teams that would play even games on a neutral field in the same tier. That means the chart looks more like a bell-curve than a flat line, but so be it! By the end of the season, it'll straighten itself out!
So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...
Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)
Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...
Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)
Quintile C is the middle of the pack:
Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)
Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...
Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)
Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:
Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)
So, here we go: Quintile A is comprised of the teams we think are in control of their own Super Bowl destiny - they'd probably be favored over teams from B and C teams without issue; they'd be favored by double digits over Quintile D teams, and the E teams should find a way to call in sick...
Denver Broncos (6-1, firing on all cylinders)
Arizona Cardinals (6-1, sneaky good - finding a way to win every week)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, no shame losing 24-20 at Arizona!)
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, and we'll give them a pass for the OT loss last night)
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, but would you want to face Luck in a big game?)
New England Patriots (6-2, we had to move them back up - Brady's too good)
Quintile B has the teams who can still justifiably argue they are championship contenders, although they'd be underdogs playing the above six...
Green Bay Packers (5-3, more for Aaron Rodgers' health than anything else)
Detroit Lions (6-2, but if it takes THAT to beat the Falcons...)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, can't exclude them after Big Ben's performance Sunday!)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1, still as fiery a contender as there is)
Baltimore Ravens (5-3, and in charge of their destiny)
San Diego Chargers (5-3, though they proved against Denver they're not top notch yet)
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, struggling, but it's hard to ignore the teams they've beaten)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3, see previous comment!)
Quintile C is the middle of the pack:
Buffalo Bills (5-3, we think they're above average, but they don't yet...)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, and maybe, just maybe...)
Miami Dolphins (4-3, on any given day...)
Carolina Panthers (3-4-1, and like all the others in group C, has the tools...)
New Orleans Saints (3-4, fabulous if they're at home. IF.)
Houston Texans (4-4, give us eleven JJ Watts and we can rule the world)
Cleveland Browns (4-3, beating the Raiders shouldn't count)
Quintile D teams are already giving up hope for this season...
Chicago Bears (3-5, they should be higher if we go on potential)
St. Louis Rams (2-5, but every once in a while, they rise up...)
New Yorkersey Giants (3-4, but really they're not that good)
Atlanta Falcons (2-6, how can a team look that good in the first half...)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, and if Bridgewater pans out, on their way up...)
Washington Redskins (3-5, promoted after winning in Dallas, even if it's overtime)
Quintile E teams are the bye weeks in disguise:
Tennessee Titans (2-6, but that's deceptively good...)
New Yorkersey Jets (1-7, Geno Smith put up one of the classic terrible stat lines in history)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7, does the guy in the Bud Light commercial want to change his living room and backyard back to how they were before?)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, how did they ever win a game?)
Oakland Raiders (0-7, but they've at least been competitive!)
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Canadian Football update
With two weeks to go, here's what's going on north of the border...
This weekend's results: Montreal over Ottawa 23-17, Calgary beats Saskatchewan 40-27, the BC Lions edge Winnipeg 28-23, and in the most interesting game, Toronto holds serve at home in the first game of the East Conference round-robin, squeaking by Hamilton 26-24.
Toronto 26, Hamilton 24 - Saturday, October 25th, 2014
With BC's win, clinching a playoff spot for the Lions, there are four guaranteed spots going to Western teams, leaving only two for the three teams battling in the East: Montreal's at 8-8, with Hamilton and Toronto at 7-9.... BUT Montreal has to play both of the other two over the next two weeks, while the seven-win teams get "free" wins against Ottawa in the other weeks.
IF (as happened this week) the home team holds serve in each of the other "round-robin" games (and Ottawa loses twice), then Montreal and Hamilton will end up 9-9, and Toronto will be the odd one out at 8-10. Montreal will have the division record edge (they would have split their games against each other) and should win the bye week, while Hamilton would play either BC or Saskatchewan in the first round.
This weekend's results: Montreal over Ottawa 23-17, Calgary beats Saskatchewan 40-27, the BC Lions edge Winnipeg 28-23, and in the most interesting game, Toronto holds serve at home in the first game of the East Conference round-robin, squeaking by Hamilton 26-24.
Toronto 26, Hamilton 24 - Saturday, October 25th, 2014
With BC's win, clinching a playoff spot for the Lions, there are four guaranteed spots going to Western teams, leaving only two for the three teams battling in the East: Montreal's at 8-8, with Hamilton and Toronto at 7-9.... BUT Montreal has to play both of the other two over the next two weeks, while the seven-win teams get "free" wins against Ottawa in the other weeks.
IF (as happened this week) the home team holds serve in each of the other "round-robin" games (and Ottawa loses twice), then Montreal and Hamilton will end up 9-9, and Toronto will be the odd one out at 8-10. Montreal will have the division record edge (they would have split their games against each other) and should win the bye week, while Hamilton would play either BC or Saskatchewan in the first round.
Loose ends from Week 8...
Savannah St fell to 0-8 yesterday, losing at North Carolina Central 42-21. They have now lost seventeen in a row...
On the flip side, the defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison won 47-7 over South Dakota to move to 8-0, and consecutive win number 32...
The Arizona Cardinals had two 75+ yard pass plays for touchdowns, the last under two minutes to go, to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. What were the odds of the Cards being two full games up on Seattle AND San Francisco after Week 8?...
Have you seen the standings in the AFC North? All four teams are within a half-game of each other: Cincinnati at 4-2-1, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5-3, and Cleveland at 4-3!...
Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is below .500 - Carolina leads at 3-4-1, the Saints are at 2-4 pending tonight's game, Atlanta fell to 2-6 after leading 21-0 at halftime, and Jacksonville is...Jacksonville...
TCU scored 82 points on Texas Tech yesterday, a real FBS school. This was the highest point total of the year, surpassing North Texas' defeat of Nicholls St 77-3, which we argue SHOULD NOT COUNT because it was against an FCS team (never mind that it was an 0-9 school who lost by two TDs to a Division II team). So, for that reason, glad TCU set the new season high. (If those games don't count towards your win total for bowl games, they shouldn't count for anything else, either!)...
That wasn't the only high number put up Saturday - Georgia Southern put 69 on Georgia St (69-31), Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion 66-51, and Tier C Arizona took out Washington St 59-37, only after having shifted into low gear for the fourth quarter...
And in the FCS, not only did Alcorn St ruin the last game at Blackshaw Field for Prairie View by scoring 77 on them (winning 77-48), but Murray St laid a woodshed whoop'n on Kentucky Wesleyen 86-29... and it should've been worse, except they hung onto the ball for the last seven minutes, finishing the game by kneeling on the KW seven yard line...
Michigan St scored a last minute TD against Michigan to stretch their winning margin to 35-11. Why? Because the Wolverine players were jerks. Apparently, they decided to 'stake' the center Spartan when they came out onto the field, always a wise move against your cross-state rival when they're 7-1 and you're falling apart at the seams. Our early candidate for stupid jerk move of the year...
In the pros, Geno Smith of the New York Jets posted one of the saddest stat lines ever before being pulled for Michael Vick (who didn't help much, either, as Buffalo creamed them): 2 for 8, for five yards, w 3 interceptions. A rating of 0.0; perfection!
On the flip side, having already lauded Ben Roethlisberger's day for the Steelers, let's check the great Tom Brady's line for the New England Patriots: 30-35 for 354 yards, five TDs and no picks. Pats beat the Bears 51-23.
On the flip side, the defending FCS champion North Dakota St Bison won 47-7 over South Dakota to move to 8-0, and consecutive win number 32...
The Arizona Cardinals had two 75+ yard pass plays for touchdowns, the last under two minutes to go, to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-20. What were the odds of the Cards being two full games up on Seattle AND San Francisco after Week 8?...
Have you seen the standings in the AFC North? All four teams are within a half-game of each other: Cincinnati at 4-2-1, Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 5-3, and Cleveland at 4-3!...
Conversely, everyone in the NFC South is below .500 - Carolina leads at 3-4-1, the Saints are at 2-4 pending tonight's game, Atlanta fell to 2-6 after leading 21-0 at halftime, and Jacksonville is...Jacksonville...
TCU scored 82 points on Texas Tech yesterday, a real FBS school. This was the highest point total of the year, surpassing North Texas' defeat of Nicholls St 77-3, which we argue SHOULD NOT COUNT because it was against an FCS team (never mind that it was an 0-9 school who lost by two TDs to a Division II team). So, for that reason, glad TCU set the new season high. (If those games don't count towards your win total for bowl games, they shouldn't count for anything else, either!)...
That wasn't the only high number put up Saturday - Georgia Southern put 69 on Georgia St (69-31), Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion 66-51, and Tier C Arizona took out Washington St 59-37, only after having shifted into low gear for the fourth quarter...
And in the FCS, not only did Alcorn St ruin the last game at Blackshaw Field for Prairie View by scoring 77 on them (winning 77-48), but Murray St laid a woodshed whoop'n on Kentucky Wesleyen 86-29... and it should've been worse, except they hung onto the ball for the last seven minutes, finishing the game by kneeling on the KW seven yard line...
Michigan St scored a last minute TD against Michigan to stretch their winning margin to 35-11. Why? Because the Wolverine players were jerks. Apparently, they decided to 'stake' the center Spartan when they came out onto the field, always a wise move against your cross-state rival when they're 7-1 and you're falling apart at the seams. Our early candidate for stupid jerk move of the year...
In the pros, Geno Smith of the New York Jets posted one of the saddest stat lines ever before being pulled for Michael Vick (who didn't help much, either, as Buffalo creamed them): 2 for 8, for five yards, w 3 interceptions. A rating of 0.0; perfection!
On the flip side, having already lauded Ben Roethlisberger's day for the Steelers, let's check the great Tom Brady's line for the New England Patriots: 30-35 for 354 yards, five TDs and no picks. Pats beat the Bears 51-23.
We've reached the Week 8 CFB tiers Penthouse!
That's right, the thirty best teams as decided on the field so far this year, divided into the top five tiers (and no closer, as berated before!), for your amusement!
Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]
Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!
Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12).
Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).
As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!
Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though!
[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]
Tier E:
This is the tier with all different conferences represented...in case anyone cares. Present in Tier E are the Mountain West's highest ranked school, Colorado St (7-1, 3-1), Georgia Tech (6-2, 3-2) from the ACC, the Mid-American's hope for a major bowl bid in Marshall (still unbeaten at 8-0, 4-0), the SEC rep Missouri (6-2, 3-1), UCLA (6-2, 3-2) from the Pac-12, and Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1), representing the Big Ten. [Do you think that's about right for Marshall? Are those five teams ones you can see giving the Thundering Herd an even game on a neutral field? That's our criteria for tiers. Comments, please!]
Tier D:
Arizona St (6-1, 4-1) and USC (5-3, 4-2) had a great game a couple of weeks back, and land together here as reps for the Pac-12. Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC) is here, as well as Kentucky (5-3, 2-3 SEC) - two incredibly high positions for "basketball schools"! Finally, we find Oklahoma (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) and the highest AAC member, the surprising East Carolina Pirates at 6-1, 3-0 in conference!
Tier C:
From here up, we're looking at schools that could legitimately keep dreaming about making the first four-team playoff! The favorites are yet to come, of course, but these teams still have a chance: Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), Kansas St (6-1, 4-0 Big 12), LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big 10), Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac 12), and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1 Big 12).
Tier B:
Like last week, every team here can rightfully say they could beat any team, any day, as even their one defeat came in a strongly competitive situation against a top-notch team: Auburn (6-1, 3-1 SEC), Baylor (6-1, 3-1 Big 12), Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), Michigan St (7-1, 4-0 Big 10), Ohio St (6-1, 3-0 Big 10), and Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac 12).
As the NCAA committee announces their first rankings Tuesday, expect to see four of these six teams in the four playoff positions...any of whom could be dislodged on a single Saturday!
Tier A:
Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC), whose one loss was at a Tier A school by one score; Florida St (7-0, 4-0 ACC), who's still undefeated thanks to the lack of prosecution against Jameis Winston; Mississippi St (7-0, 4-0 SEC), the rightful #1 team in the nation; Notre Dame (6-1 as an independent), whose only loss was a one score game at a Tier A school; TCU(6-1, 3-1 Big 12), whose only loss came to a then Tier A school (still a tier B) in a criminal clock-keeping game that allowed field goals against them at the end of each half on the opponent's field; and yes, we're keeping Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) here, having lost a one-score game to a top-notch team in LSU (albeit Tier C) on their field. Comparing losses with the Tier B schools, we'll keep the Rebels over any of them at the moment. Still more to play, though!
[And if we had to pick four teams right now? Um... Mississippi St...Florida St...Alabama...and TCU would be our fourth right now. Notre Dame has a history of poor performances in championship situations, and I like TCU's "good wins versus what kind of loss it had" ratio over Ole Miss.]
Week 8 CFB tiers continued - the Upper Floors!
We've reached the upper half (slightly above, actually) of the FBS tiering: Tiers F through J, teams #31-61 if we were actually "ranking" (which we're not, at least in October!).
Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).
Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).
Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).
Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).
Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.
Tier J:
Tier J contains a bunch of good teams whose records don't necessarily show it, including Tennessee, just 3-5 because of being 0-4 in the SEC, and Syracuse, at 3-5 and 1-3 in the ACC. Also present in the J are Houston and Memphis (both 4-3, 2-1 AAC), Northwestern (3-4, 2-2 Big 10), and Virginia Tech (4-4, 1-3 ACC).
Tier I:
The ninth tier from the top is packed with teams from the ACC, a conference loaded with middle-of-the-road teams: North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia (all 4-4, 2-2), and Boston College (5-3, 2-2). Also present for their I-check are Air Force (5-2, 2-2 MW), Northern Illinois (6-2, MAC), and Washington (5-3, 1-3 Pac12).
Tier H:
Arkansas (4-4, 0-4 SEC), California (4-4, 2-4 Pac12), Florida (3-3, 2-3 SEC), Iowa (5-2, 2-1 Big 10), Oregon St (4-3, 2-2 Pac12), and Utah St (5-3, 2-1 MW).
Tier G:
Three Big Ten teams populate the seventh tier - Maryland (5-3, 2-2), Penn St (4-3, 1-3), and Rutgers (5-3, 1-3). Also here are Boise St (having come back to 6-2, 3-1 in the MW), Miami-FL (5-3, 2-2 ACC), and Stanford (5-3, 2-2 Pac12).
Tier F:
Finally for the Uppermost Level of our CFB building, we find two more ACC schools in Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and Louisville (6-2, 4-2); two more SEC schools fighting disappointment mid-season in South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) and Texas A&M (5-3, 2-3); the Big Ten dark horse Minnesota (6-2, 3-1), and the Oklahoma State Cowboys at 5-3, 3-2 in the Big Twelve.
Week 8 tiers continued - the Ground Floor!
Continuing out of the Basement and up to the Ground Floor with Tiers K through P, the "second quartile", if you will - we refuse to rank teams this early in the season, but these are teams #62 through #96 (there are seven teams in each of these five tiers). Onward!
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Tier P:
Colorado (2-6, 0-5 and the lowest team in the Pac12), Indiana (3-4, and the lowest team in the Big Ten at 0-3), Ohio (4-5, 2-3 MAC), Purdue (3-5, 1-3 in the Big Ten alongside Indiana), Texas St (4-3, 2-1 Sun), UAB (4-4, 2-2 C-USA), and Wyoming (3-5, 1-3 MW).
Tier N (no Tier O - don't really have a reason...):
The Sun Belt's 2-1 Arkansas St (4-3), the MAC's Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2) and Western Michigan (3-3, 3-1), the Mountain West's Fresno St (3-5, 2-2) and San Jose St (3-4, 2-1), Rice (4-3, 2-1 C-USA), and South Florida (3-5, 2-2 ACC).
Tier M:
Only Conference USA has two representatives in Tier M - Florida Atlantic (3-5, 2-2) and Texas-El Paso (4-3, 2-1). The other five schools are Michigan (3-5, 1-3 Big 10), Navy (4-4 as independent), San Diego St (4-3, 3-1 MW), Temple (4-3, 2-2 AAC), and Washington St (2-6, 1-4 Pac12). [Michigan should find it appropriate that they're in Tier "M"...yet somehow we doubt they're pleased!]
Tier L:
BYU has fallen all the way to here (4-4 as an independent), alongside Illinois (4-4, 1-3 Big 10), Middle Tennessee (5-3, 4-1 C-USA), Texas and Texas Tech (both 3-5, although the Longhorns have one more win in the Big 12), Toledo (5-3, undefeated at 4-0 in the MAC), and Louisiana-Lafayette (4-3, and also undefeated in conference at 3-0 in the Sun Belt).
Tier K:
The first tier without a losing record includes six different conferences (there's only one tier without duplicate teams from the same conference...and we haven't reached it yet!) starts with Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 in the MAC), Central Florida (5-2, 3-0) and Cincinnati (4-3, 2-1) from the American Athletic Conference, Georgia Southern (the highest ranked team from the Sun Belt conference at 6-2 and 5-0), Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 C-USA), Nevada (5-3, 2-2 MW), and North Carolina St (4-4, 0-4 in the ACC).
Week 8 College Tiers - all 128 teams have been leveled!
That's right! Our extensive Following Football tiering system has divided the 128 FBS teams into twenty tiers of six or seven members (as always, we refuse to specifically rank teams until the end of the season), for your viewing and arguing pleasure! We start with the bottom five tiers, in the Basement Levels:
Tier U (aka, the Bottom Six):
No changes here from last week, and we still include four Sun Belt Conference also-rans in Georgia State, Idaho, New Mexico St, and Troy; along with MAC bottom-feeder Kent St and our lone remaining winless team, from the American Athletic Conference (used to be the Big East), the SMU Mustangs.
Tier T (aka the rest of the Bottom 13):
Also very similar to last week, with one-win Tulsa and UConn from the AAC, and two-win teams Appalachian St (Sun Belt), New Mexico (Mountain West), North Texas (Conference USA), and the two MAC entries, Miami-OH and UMass.
Tier S:
Ball St (3-5, 2-2 MAC), Eastern Michigan (2-6, 1-3 MAC), Hawaii (2-6, 1-2 MW), Old Dominion (3-5, 1-4 Sun), UNLV (2-6, 1-3 MW), and UT-San Antonio (2-6, 1-3 C-USA).
Tier R:
The fourth level from the bottom (if you like, call them rankings #104-109) contains Akron (4-4, 2-2 MAC), Army (2-5 as independent), Iowa St (2-5, 0-4 Big 12), Kansas (2-5, 0-4 Big 12), Tulane (2-5, 1-2 AAC), and Western Kentucky (3-4, 1-3 Sun).
Tier Q:
Finally (for this post in the Basement Level), there are seven teams - Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 MAC), Florida International (3-5, 2-2 C-USA), South Alabama (5-2, 4-1 Sun), Southern Miss (3-5, 1-3 C-USA), UL-Monroe (3-4, 2-2 Sun), Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-5 SEC), and Wake Forest (2-6, 0-4 ACC).
[Just a reminder - the most important rule of placing teams in tiers is, If the teams played on a neutral field, would they be close? Or would one team definitely win? If there's a significant difference, they should be in different tiers. But that's why South Alabama (at 5-2) can be in the same tier as 2-6 Vanderbilt, winless in the SEC: Wouldn't SA be winless there, too?]
Tier U (aka, the Bottom Six):
No changes here from last week, and we still include four Sun Belt Conference also-rans in Georgia State, Idaho, New Mexico St, and Troy; along with MAC bottom-feeder Kent St and our lone remaining winless team, from the American Athletic Conference (used to be the Big East), the SMU Mustangs.
Tier T (aka the rest of the Bottom 13):
Also very similar to last week, with one-win Tulsa and UConn from the AAC, and two-win teams Appalachian St (Sun Belt), New Mexico (Mountain West), North Texas (Conference USA), and the two MAC entries, Miami-OH and UMass.
Tier S:
Ball St (3-5, 2-2 MAC), Eastern Michigan (2-6, 1-3 MAC), Hawaii (2-6, 1-2 MW), Old Dominion (3-5, 1-4 Sun), UNLV (2-6, 1-3 MW), and UT-San Antonio (2-6, 1-3 C-USA).
Tier R:
The fourth level from the bottom (if you like, call them rankings #104-109) contains Akron (4-4, 2-2 MAC), Army (2-5 as independent), Iowa St (2-5, 0-4 Big 12), Kansas (2-5, 0-4 Big 12), Tulane (2-5, 1-2 AAC), and Western Kentucky (3-4, 1-3 Sun).
Tier Q:
Finally (for this post in the Basement Level), there are seven teams - Buffalo (3-5, 1-3 MAC), Florida International (3-5, 2-2 C-USA), South Alabama (5-2, 4-1 Sun), Southern Miss (3-5, 1-3 C-USA), UL-Monroe (3-4, 2-2 Sun), Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-5 SEC), and Wake Forest (2-6, 0-4 ACC).
[Just a reminder - the most important rule of placing teams in tiers is, If the teams played on a neutral field, would they be close? Or would one team definitely win? If there's a significant difference, they should be in different tiers. But that's why South Alabama (at 5-2) can be in the same tier as 2-6 Vanderbilt, winless in the SEC: Wouldn't SA be winless there, too?]
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Interesting games this weekend...
Here are the college games that will keep us attentive this weekend...
In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!
Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...
Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!
Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...
Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.
We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.
Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...
What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?
How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?
Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)
Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....
The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!
South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).
The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!
Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).
Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.
In Blacksburg, a critical ACC matchup looms Thursday between traditional powerhouses Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, both 4-3 and (most crucially) 1-2 in conference. Another loss dooms either of them; 2-2 (and 5-3 overall) gives them life. We agree that the Hurricanes are the slight favorite, but we're excited to watch it!
Similarly, in the American conference, South Florida goes to Cincinnati Friday, each with a conference loss and pretty much out of hope for a title with a second this week. The Bearcats are the deserved favorite, but we don't trust them...
Also on Friday night:
Boise St without their best receiver (and on the blue) > BYU without their QB.
Oregon anytime, anywhere > a much improved California, our fave to watch!
Memphis by 23 over SMU? It would be really nice if the Mustangs stay that close...With the new allegations of fraud at North Carolina, Virginia should win, probably by more than a TD...
Will Kansas St really be ten points better than the fabled Longhorns of Texas? They should be much more than that, but it depends on how the purple shows up in bright light that's in question.
We'd love to see 6-1 Minnesota start to impress the critics more. They're only a TD favorite against a mediocre Illinois team that they shouldn't have any problems with, even on the road.
Akron's only a 2 point favorite over regular Bottom-Feeder Ball St? Hmm...
What would Marshall have to do to make us believe they could be competitive with the Tier A teams? Win by fifty? Learn to fly? (Play somebody with a pulse?) They're favored by four touchdowns over FAU; would it matter if they won by eight? Fourteen? GaTech/Cumberland scores?
How about Sparty over Big Blue? Would Michigan St have to win by thirty to impress, or is any win over the legendary maize and blue of Michigan credit-building?
Two of our favorite SEC teams, Mississippi St and Kentucky, square off in Lexington Saturday as a 2-TD spread in favor of the Bulldogs, and rightly so - but it's going to be a fun game! (Vanderbilt @ Missouri should also be interesting!)
Temple might be less than the 7 point dog the line makes them at UCF, but we can also see them losing by thirty...Hard to picture Wyoming losing to rival Colorado St by the 18 points the line has, too....
The prime time games are worth setting the evening aside for! Ole Miss at LSU? Good luck, Rebels...you're favored by three, and here's hoping you pull it off! (We're hoping for an undefeated Egg Bowl here at FF!) But that's going to be an awfully tough environment, and every break goes the way of the Mad Hatter, Les Miles, when you go into the Bayou!
South Carolina's fallen so far that they're a 17 point dog at Auburn (deservedly so, too).
The most intriguing thing about Alabama's jaunt into Tennessee, of course, is the return of Lane Kiffin to the Volunteers headquarters. We truly hope that it's an uneventful visit - Kiffin's been punished many times over at this stage for his incompetence, and there's no point in revisiting a past you don't really want to think about any more than you have to!
Can Ohio St make a charge towards the playoff? Can it start by handling Penn St, a good team but one the Buckeyes should be able to defeat (the line is 13 1/2 points at the moment).
Is USC for real? What about Utah? One of them will look more real after their game Saturday night in Salt Lake City; that's for sure! Similarly, we'll get a reasonable look at Arizona St, who goes to Seattle to play U-Dub, aka the University of Washington, who should give them a legitimate test.
Forecasts for Week 8!
Looking through the oddsmakers' choices and spreads (and again, we do not advocate betting on football or any sport! It's just a device we use to estimate probable outcomes of games!), there aren't very many spots where we disagree with Vegas. Here are the most obvious:
In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!
We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!
We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.
Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.
Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!
In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.
Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title.
In college football, we like Maryland over Wisconsin as an eleven point underdog, since we have them a tier higher to begin with!
We like Georgia Tech to beat Pitt despite their three-point underdog line, as we have them three full tiers higher than the Panthers!
We severely question the idea that Oregon St is a two-TD underdog to Stanford. We have them a tier higher, and since it's on the Farm, we figure it a pretty even game.
Looking at the West Virginia at Oklahoma St game, we see even lines from most Vegas houses, but we see it as a probable Mountaineer victory.
Old Dominion should be able to handle Western Kentucky, despite the Hilltoppers' home field advantage...and we don't see why Arizona is only a 2 1/2 point fave over Washington St. Sure, the Cougs will put up fifty - but they'll allow seventy!
In the NFL, we're always afraid to predict the unpredictable, but the two games where our tiers disagree with the oddsmakers are in the Meadowlands, where unlike Vegas we foresee Buffalo beating the Jets, and in New Orleans. Sure, the Saints are good at home...but the Packers are good everywhere. They're rated as a "pick'em" game, but we're pretty confident in Green Bay defeating New Orleans, even in the Superdome.
Finally, in the CFL, we're most interested in the Hamilton at Toronto matchup, and leaning towards the road team to win the first of the three-game round-robin tournament for the Eastern Conference title.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Round and round she goes...where she stops...?
OK, so Calgary has the CFL West sewn up, even officially now. Edmonton's in, and we'll be watching Saskatchewan to see if they can maintain enough of a pulse to stay ahead of British Columbia for that third place slot (not entirely sure they WANT it, as long as they get in).
But the real fun is in the East, where Montreal and Hamilton currently have a one-game lead on the Toronto Argonauts...and over the last three weeks of the season (starting Saturday), the three teams play a round-robin against each other to conclude the season!
(I know!)
The TigerCats play in Toronto this Saturday, then Toronto goes to Montreal next week, and finally the Alouettes finish the season in Hamilton on the last day of the season, Saturday, Novermber 8th. It's very likely that game decides the division title AND the bye week in the playoffs, so it'll be vital to at LEAST "hold serve" when you host one of your rivals, and ideally WIN when you travel to the other. (We have the three teams all going 2-1 over the last three weeks and ending exactly as they are now - Cats and Montreal, tied for first. (I"ll be honest: I'm not sure how they settle that. I would use standings within the division, which would give the title to Montreal in our scenario.) Regardless, it'll be fun...and even MORE so because the West can steal a spot for one of its teams if its fourth place finisher has a better record than the East's third placer...and it looks like they will. (Our projections have the West's fourth place above the East's FIRST place...). So, it's NOT three spots they're fighting for... it's two! Which means it's NOT A MOOT POINT who's second and who's third if they just play each other in the first game - because they probably WON'T!
But the real fun is in the East, where Montreal and Hamilton currently have a one-game lead on the Toronto Argonauts...and over the last three weeks of the season (starting Saturday), the three teams play a round-robin against each other to conclude the season!
(I know!)
The TigerCats play in Toronto this Saturday, then Toronto goes to Montreal next week, and finally the Alouettes finish the season in Hamilton on the last day of the season, Saturday, Novermber 8th. It's very likely that game decides the division title AND the bye week in the playoffs, so it'll be vital to at LEAST "hold serve" when you host one of your rivals, and ideally WIN when you travel to the other. (We have the three teams all going 2-1 over the last three weeks and ending exactly as they are now - Cats and Montreal, tied for first. (I"ll be honest: I'm not sure how they settle that. I would use standings within the division, which would give the title to Montreal in our scenario.) Regardless, it'll be fun...and even MORE so because the West can steal a spot for one of its teams if its fourth place finisher has a better record than the East's third placer...and it looks like they will. (Our projections have the West's fourth place above the East's FIRST place...). So, it's NOT three spots they're fighting for... it's two! Which means it's NOT A MOOT POINT who's second and who's third if they just play each other in the first game - because they probably WON'T!
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