From the CFL stats gurus themselves: The season has been SO unpredictable that...
...eight of nine teams have either two or three wins.
...five weeks of games have had three overtimes: as many as the last four YEARS combined!
...the CFL Pick'Em contestants (all 13,ooo of them!) have a collective six correct picks out of the first 20 games! (Which should now be 6 of 21, as BC was upset by Winnipeg tonight!)
...55% of the first five weeks of games (11 of 20) have been within four points!
SO...we don't feel so bad here at Following Football being 10-10 so far this year! (OK, 10-11...we had BC winning tonight, too...)
By the way, here are last week's finals, if you didn't already look 'em up:
Ottawa upset Calgary 29-26; Toronto managed to beat BC in Vancouver 30-27; Edmonton wiped out Winnipeg 32-3; and Hamilton went to Saskatchewan and made them 0-5, winning 31-21 (it was close until the last few minutes, though, tied in the fourth).
And, for all the good it does!, here's FF's calls for this weekend's remaining games:
We like Edmonton over Saskatchewan by eight; Montreal over Calgary (without their leading rusher Jon Cornish) by four; and Toronto by two at Hamilton.
(Therefore, you should probably bet on the Riders, Stamps, and TiCats...)
Showing posts with label Week 5. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 5. Show all posts
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Updated AFL predictions after five weeks...
Before the season began, we posted our predictions for the then-still-upcoming 2015 AFL season (Hawthorn 19-3, N. Melbourne with Sydney at 18-4...)
After five games, however, there are some patterns emerging that have changed our thinking, What you see here is information for the top thirteen projections: current record and rating, projected record at their bye (in either week 11, 12, or 13), and at the end of the season...
TEAM FFRS Record-----------------------------------------------------------
Rating Current At their bye End of season (Previous pred)
Hawthorn 88.1 3-2 8-2 19-3 19-3
Fremantle 79.3 5-0 9-2 18-4 15-7
Sydney 71.9 3-2 7-4 17-5 18-4
Western 49.4 4-1 7-3 16-6 9-12-1
Collingwood 52.7 4-1 9-2 15-7 7-15
Port Adelaide 71.3 3-2 10-2 15-7 15-7
Adelaide 57.9 3-2 7-3 15-7 14-7-1
North Melbourne 57.3 2-3 5-7 13-9 18-4
Essendon 48.6 3-2 7-4 13-9 11-11
GWS 36.7 3-2 7-5 13-9 10-11-1
West Coast 66.4 3-2 7-5 10-12 8-14
Geelong 52.3 2-3 5-7 9-13 13-9
Richmond 49.0 2-3 3-7 9-13 12-10
[Lower down the ladder and not really worth projecting - Gold Coast, St. Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Just assume none of them will break seven wins, lose fewer than fifteen, or be anything more than a spoiler the rest of the season.]
After five games, however, there are some patterns emerging that have changed our thinking, What you see here is information for the top thirteen projections: current record and rating, projected record at their bye (in either week 11, 12, or 13), and at the end of the season...
TEAM FFRS Record-----------------------------------------------------------
Rating Current At their bye End of season (Previous pred)
Hawthorn 88.1 3-2 8-2 19-3 19-3
Fremantle 79.3 5-0 9-2 18-4 15-7
Sydney 71.9 3-2 7-4 17-5 18-4
Western 49.4 4-1 7-3 16-6 9-12-1
Collingwood 52.7 4-1 9-2 15-7 7-15
Port Adelaide 71.3 3-2 10-2 15-7 15-7
Adelaide 57.9 3-2 7-3 15-7 14-7-1
North Melbourne 57.3 2-3 5-7 13-9 18-4
Essendon 48.6 3-2 7-4 13-9 11-11
GWS 36.7 3-2 7-5 13-9 10-11-1
West Coast 66.4 3-2 7-5 10-12 8-14
Geelong 52.3 2-3 5-7 9-13 13-9
Richmond 49.0 2-3 3-7 9-13 12-10
[Lower down the ladder and not really worth projecting - Gold Coast, St. Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Just assume none of them will break seven wins, lose fewer than fifteen, or be anything more than a spoiler the rest of the season.]
AFL Week Five in review...
Some interesting games this weekend! The last two may have been the most intriguing!
Port def. Adelaide in the 38th Showdown, and there were stars galore out to perform! The Power won by 24, and Robbie Gray was named the Outstanding Player, although Chad Wingard and Eddie Betts were among the great performers last night! And Essendon squeaked out an 82-80 victory over lowly St. Kilda, but if professionals can have moral victories, the Saints definitely earned one for this game against the Bombers. The third game Sunday was another Fremantle clinic, a 64-point demolition of quickly-improving Melbourne.
As to the earlier games this weekend, the ones that kept me up all night Friday (!),...
- Collingwood annihilated Carlton by 75 to ruin Blues' coach Mick Malthouse's celebration of his record breaking 715th game...
- Geelong surprised Richmond with a great first half and held on to win by nine...
- Hawthorn showed their championship form by defeating a surprisingly overmatched Kangaroos club 130-70...
- West Coast poured cold water on the flames of the Greater Western Sydney juggernaut, making them look like the youngest franchise again by holding them to one goal over the last three quarters, and won 120-33 (not a typo!)...
- Brisbane took hold of last place by losing badly to fellow zero-win Queensland resident Gold Coast by 64 points.
- And, as mentioned in yesterday's post, the Western Bulldoggies showed they are absolutely REAL, running out to a lead on Sydney early, and then coming back with a game-winning goal late in the fourth after the Swans had come all the way back to take the lead.
Current standings
5-0: Fremantle
4-1: Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
3-2: Hawthorn, West Coast, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon
2-3: Richmond, Geelong, No. Melbourne, Melbourne
1-4: St. Kilda, Carlton, Gold Coast
0-5: Brisbane Lions.
Port def. Adelaide in the 38th Showdown, and there were stars galore out to perform! The Power won by 24, and Robbie Gray was named the Outstanding Player, although Chad Wingard and Eddie Betts were among the great performers last night! And Essendon squeaked out an 82-80 victory over lowly St. Kilda, but if professionals can have moral victories, the Saints definitely earned one for this game against the Bombers. The third game Sunday was another Fremantle clinic, a 64-point demolition of quickly-improving Melbourne.
As to the earlier games this weekend, the ones that kept me up all night Friday (!),...
- Collingwood annihilated Carlton by 75 to ruin Blues' coach Mick Malthouse's celebration of his record breaking 715th game...
- Geelong surprised Richmond with a great first half and held on to win by nine...
- Hawthorn showed their championship form by defeating a surprisingly overmatched Kangaroos club 130-70...
- West Coast poured cold water on the flames of the Greater Western Sydney juggernaut, making them look like the youngest franchise again by holding them to one goal over the last three quarters, and won 120-33 (not a typo!)...
- Brisbane took hold of last place by losing badly to fellow zero-win Queensland resident Gold Coast by 64 points.
- And, as mentioned in yesterday's post, the Western Bulldoggies showed they are absolutely REAL, running out to a lead on Sydney early, and then coming back with a game-winning goal late in the fourth after the Swans had come all the way back to take the lead.
Current standings
5-0: Fremantle
4-1: Collingwood, Western Bulldogs
3-2: Hawthorn, West Coast, GWS, Sydney, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Essendon
2-3: Richmond, Geelong, No. Melbourne, Melbourne
1-4: St. Kilda, Carlton, Gold Coast
0-5: Brisbane Lions.
Monday, April 27, 2015
Looking at week 5 of the Australian footy schedule...
So, here are the games and my thoughts on the upcoming AFL schedule for May 1-3...
Collingwood @ Carlton... Both teams won last week, playing their best game of the season, and meet under the lights on a Friday night (the equivalent of the old "Monday Night Football" in the states before NBC's Sunday tried to usurp it). Hard not to pick Collingwood regardless - they simply remain a class above the Blues, who won't win more than a couple of games this year. But that would put the Magpies at 4-1, and with the next six weeks all holding winnable games (Geelong, Richmond, Gold Coast, North, Melbourne, and Geelong again) before their bye week, they can reasonably dream of 10-1 at the midpoint of the season...and then what?
Geelong @ Richmond... On the other hand, here's a game between two teams who really need the win! Geelong's season risks going down the drain if they can't beat a middling team like Richmond - but they've lost to other middling teams already, and have shown they may not have the speed to compete with virtually anyone this season. Richmond thought they were set to run this year but lost two sort-of embarrassing games to Western and Melbourne, two lower teams that simply out-worked them. Translation: both teams NEED to win this game...and one of them WON'T!
Western @ Sydney... By all rights, the Swans should blow the Bulldogs out of the water by forty points. But the Western Bulldogs are 3-1, having been simply out classed by Hawthorn and by simply outworking their other three opponents (West Coast, Richmond, and Adelaide), all finals candidates. If Sydney takes them seriously, they win. If not...
Brisbane @ Gold Coast... the state of Queensland hosts the only two teams without a win, two proud franchises who desperately want to avoid holding the wooden spoon at an 0-5 start to the season. I'm picking the home team, but they've either bought into their own press clippings this year and assume victory, or Gary Ablett Jr. has some magical power on the field that wills his team to victory, or Guy McKenna was a MUCH better coach than Rodney Eade is. The Brisbane Lions are currently a hard-working team that's simply not very talented at the moment; parts of the game against West Coast last weekend were sad because they were trying so hard, yet couldn't compete against the bigger, stronger, and faster Eagles.
Hawthorn @ North Melbourne... I am so tempted to take the Kangaroos again this week in the battle of vastly different 2-2 teams! They have the talent to do exactly what Port Adelaide did to the Hawks last weekend: annihilate them in the first half! (Remember, the Roos played the Power to nearly a draw in round 3.) But I have faith in the integrity of the two-time defending champs - after an embarrassing first half against Port, they sucked it up and played magnificently in the second, coming back from 58 down to close within a goal before losing. They'll come back with pride this week and win handily.
GWS @ West Coast... This is going to be a treat! West Coast is the betting favorite, but they're well known as a "flat-track bully", building their percentage off of poor teams but getting hammered by the good ones (remember what Fremantle did to them in r. 3!). Take a good look at GWS. They're a GOOD team. Currently, they sit at #2 on the ladder, the highest percentage of the five 3-1 teams, with only a well-fought loss to Sydney on their platter, although their wins may not be the most impressive (SK, Melbourne, and Gold Coast). Still, I think they will be able to exploit the Eagles' many weaknesses in the backfield and win handily.
Fremantle @ Melbourne... Boy, it would be nice to be able to tell you that the Demons have a chance against Fremantle! Such a good tackling team! Such hard workers! Unfortunately, Fremantle's number one on the ladder for a reason. Nat Fyfe and company will soundly rout the Dees.
Essendon @ St. Kilda... The Saints would like to say they can handle a team like Essendon - but their youth won't hold up for four quarters again the Dons. And after a loss like they took on ANZAC Day against their main rivals (Collingwood), Essendon won't be sitting back ignoring the Saints until it's too late.
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide... Finally, the game of the week! The Adelaide crosstown showdown between two powerful teams could produce some stellar play and a very close game! The Port Power started with two losses to great teams (Fremantle and Sydney) and then defeated two other great teams (North and Hawthorn) before taking on the 3-1 Crows, who ran off impressive wins over North, Collingwood, and Melbourne before Western blew them out on Sunday. It's hard not to be impressed with Port's schedule - for them, this is just one more game, and they've looked better every game. But Adelaide needs this game after being embarrassed by the Bulldogs last week. No matter how it unfolds, though, this should be one of the great crosstown games ever!
Collingwood @ Carlton... Both teams won last week, playing their best game of the season, and meet under the lights on a Friday night (the equivalent of the old "Monday Night Football" in the states before NBC's Sunday tried to usurp it). Hard not to pick Collingwood regardless - they simply remain a class above the Blues, who won't win more than a couple of games this year. But that would put the Magpies at 4-1, and with the next six weeks all holding winnable games (Geelong, Richmond, Gold Coast, North, Melbourne, and Geelong again) before their bye week, they can reasonably dream of 10-1 at the midpoint of the season...and then what?
Geelong @ Richmond... On the other hand, here's a game between two teams who really need the win! Geelong's season risks going down the drain if they can't beat a middling team like Richmond - but they've lost to other middling teams already, and have shown they may not have the speed to compete with virtually anyone this season. Richmond thought they were set to run this year but lost two sort-of embarrassing games to Western and Melbourne, two lower teams that simply out-worked them. Translation: both teams NEED to win this game...and one of them WON'T!
Western @ Sydney... By all rights, the Swans should blow the Bulldogs out of the water by forty points. But the Western Bulldogs are 3-1, having been simply out classed by Hawthorn and by simply outworking their other three opponents (West Coast, Richmond, and Adelaide), all finals candidates. If Sydney takes them seriously, they win. If not...
Brisbane @ Gold Coast... the state of Queensland hosts the only two teams without a win, two proud franchises who desperately want to avoid holding the wooden spoon at an 0-5 start to the season. I'm picking the home team, but they've either bought into their own press clippings this year and assume victory, or Gary Ablett Jr. has some magical power on the field that wills his team to victory, or Guy McKenna was a MUCH better coach than Rodney Eade is. The Brisbane Lions are currently a hard-working team that's simply not very talented at the moment; parts of the game against West Coast last weekend were sad because they were trying so hard, yet couldn't compete against the bigger, stronger, and faster Eagles.
Hawthorn @ North Melbourne... I am so tempted to take the Kangaroos again this week in the battle of vastly different 2-2 teams! They have the talent to do exactly what Port Adelaide did to the Hawks last weekend: annihilate them in the first half! (Remember, the Roos played the Power to nearly a draw in round 3.) But I have faith in the integrity of the two-time defending champs - after an embarrassing first half against Port, they sucked it up and played magnificently in the second, coming back from 58 down to close within a goal before losing. They'll come back with pride this week and win handily.
GWS @ West Coast... This is going to be a treat! West Coast is the betting favorite, but they're well known as a "flat-track bully", building their percentage off of poor teams but getting hammered by the good ones (remember what Fremantle did to them in r. 3!). Take a good look at GWS. They're a GOOD team. Currently, they sit at #2 on the ladder, the highest percentage of the five 3-1 teams, with only a well-fought loss to Sydney on their platter, although their wins may not be the most impressive (SK, Melbourne, and Gold Coast). Still, I think they will be able to exploit the Eagles' many weaknesses in the backfield and win handily.
Fremantle @ Melbourne... Boy, it would be nice to be able to tell you that the Demons have a chance against Fremantle! Such a good tackling team! Such hard workers! Unfortunately, Fremantle's number one on the ladder for a reason. Nat Fyfe and company will soundly rout the Dees.
Essendon @ St. Kilda... The Saints would like to say they can handle a team like Essendon - but their youth won't hold up for four quarters again the Dons. And after a loss like they took on ANZAC Day against their main rivals (Collingwood), Essendon won't be sitting back ignoring the Saints until it's too late.
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide... Finally, the game of the week! The Adelaide crosstown showdown between two powerful teams could produce some stellar play and a very close game! The Port Power started with two losses to great teams (Fremantle and Sydney) and then defeated two other great teams (North and Hawthorn) before taking on the 3-1 Crows, who ran off impressive wins over North, Collingwood, and Melbourne before Western blew them out on Sunday. It's hard not to be impressed with Port's schedule - for them, this is just one more game, and they've looked better every game. But Adelaide needs this game after being embarrassed by the Bulldogs last week. No matter how it unfolds, though, this should be one of the great crosstown games ever!
Monday, October 6, 2014
College Football Week 5, aka CHAOS week!
What a week! Never in the thousand year history of the Associated Press college football polls (length of time not guaranteed) had five of the top eight teams lost the same week, until THIS weekend! And it wasn't that every game was an upset: by our count, only twenty FBS games were won by the Vegas underdog (used only for establishing likelihoods of winning, never for gambling!). But the teams that lost! Oregon, Houston, BYU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Stanford, Alabama, LSU (admittedly not a favorite), Cincinnati, Miami of Fl, USC east, USC west, UCLA... Absolute bedlam! (What? That's next week? No, that's the Red River Showdown...)
So without further ado, here are the MASSIVELY readjusted CFB tiers after week five...remember: order counts for nothing here - it's far too early to worry about separating #13 from #14!
Tier 1:
Newcomers Notre Dame, Arizona, Mississippi State and Ole Miss join stalwarts Florida State, Baylor, Auburn, and one-loss Alabama (who lost a close game on the road to another Tier 1 team).
Tier 2:
Undefeated TCU and Georgia Tech, plus one loss Oklahoma, Oregon, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Michigan State, and Texas A&M.
Tier 3:
Two-loss LSU gets in here (SEC West has its perks), alongside one loss Louisville, Penn State, Missouri, Georgia, Kansas State, Ohio State, and almost undefeated Nebraska.
Tier 4:
Poor 5-0 Marshall, playing Gordon Gee's "little sisters of the poor"! They are joined by 4-1 East Carolina, Arizona State, Oregon State, and (about to drop like a stone) BYU, and 3-2 Stanford, West Virginia, and Clemson.
Tier 5:
Now we reach some of the pretenders to the throne... One loss Utah, Duke, Rutgers and Kentucky, alongside two loss USC, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Maryland.
Tier 6:
4-1 Air Force, California, Washington, Colorado State, Minnesota and Florida (we count the rained out Idaho game as an automatic win!), with 3-2 Wisconsin and Arkansas (both of Bret Bielema's best buddies!).
Tier 7:
Finally, the only ranking that goes 56 deep ends with Northern Illinois, Utah State, Northwestern, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Miami of FL, Boise State and Boston College.
And our famous bottom eight this week features the two teams who played in the Loser Bowl Saturday, where Miami of Ohio snapped its 21-game losing streak (highest in the nation) in a 42-41 "win" against UMass, who inexplicably ran a play with four seconds to go that wasn't designed to even reach the end zone from the 4 yard line, when a chip shot field goal would have won the game. They now have the longest losing streak, at 12. Winless teams joining them in the Bottom Eight include Kent State, Idaho, Troy, and SMU, who somehow managed 24 points against East Carolina, thereby tripling their season point total! Also joining them are 1-4 Ball State and former FCS champs Appalachian State, who found it tough going in the FBS, even in the Sun Belt. (They've even lost to Michigan this year! That's hard to do!)
So without further ado, here are the MASSIVELY readjusted CFB tiers after week five...remember: order counts for nothing here - it's far too early to worry about separating #13 from #14!
Tier 1:
Newcomers Notre Dame, Arizona, Mississippi State and Ole Miss join stalwarts Florida State, Baylor, Auburn, and one-loss Alabama (who lost a close game on the road to another Tier 1 team).
Tier 2:
Undefeated TCU and Georgia Tech, plus one loss Oklahoma, Oregon, Oklahoma State, UCLA, Michigan State, and Texas A&M.
Tier 3:
Two-loss LSU gets in here (SEC West has its perks), alongside one loss Louisville, Penn State, Missouri, Georgia, Kansas State, Ohio State, and almost undefeated Nebraska.
Tier 4:
Poor 5-0 Marshall, playing Gordon Gee's "little sisters of the poor"! They are joined by 4-1 East Carolina, Arizona State, Oregon State, and (about to drop like a stone) BYU, and 3-2 Stanford, West Virginia, and Clemson.
Tier 5:
Now we reach some of the pretenders to the throne... One loss Utah, Duke, Rutgers and Kentucky, alongside two loss USC, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Maryland.
Tier 6:
4-1 Air Force, California, Washington, Colorado State, Minnesota and Florida (we count the rained out Idaho game as an automatic win!), with 3-2 Wisconsin and Arkansas (both of Bret Bielema's best buddies!).
Tier 7:
Finally, the only ranking that goes 56 deep ends with Northern Illinois, Utah State, Northwestern, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Miami of FL, Boise State and Boston College.
And our famous bottom eight this week features the two teams who played in the Loser Bowl Saturday, where Miami of Ohio snapped its 21-game losing streak (highest in the nation) in a 42-41 "win" against UMass, who inexplicably ran a play with four seconds to go that wasn't designed to even reach the end zone from the 4 yard line, when a chip shot field goal would have won the game. They now have the longest losing streak, at 12. Winless teams joining them in the Bottom Eight include Kent State, Idaho, Troy, and SMU, who somehow managed 24 points against East Carolina, thereby tripling their season point total! Also joining them are 1-4 Ball State and former FCS champs Appalachian State, who found it tough going in the FBS, even in the Sun Belt. (They've even lost to Michigan this year! That's hard to do!)
NFL WEEK 5 Tiers adjusted
So, unlike the college weekend from bedlam, the NFL fell true to form (within reason!). Using the Vegas odds as our guide for predictions (never for gambling purposes, please!), only two games were technically upsets, and you could've easily made a case for Buffalo (17-14 last-minute victors over Detroit) and the revved-for-blood Patriots (who obliterated the undefeated Cardinals by four TDs in front of a Roman Coliseum crowd!) as favorites!
So, the changes in quartiles after Week 5: Dallas and the Colts move up to the Top Quartile, while Detroit and the Ravens drop in parallel; Buffalo and New England move from the Third to the Second Quartiles, knocking Atlanta and the Chiefs down a peg; and finally Cleveland moves off the Bottom up to the Third, with the Vikings resuming their rightful place in the lower eight.
HERE ARE YOUR WEEK FIVE NFL QUARTILES...
Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.
Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England and San Francisco.
Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.
Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.
(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; it's far too early and pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)
So, the changes in quartiles after Week 5: Dallas and the Colts move up to the Top Quartile, while Detroit and the Ravens drop in parallel; Buffalo and New England move from the Third to the Second Quartiles, knocking Atlanta and the Chiefs down a peg; and finally Cleveland moves off the Bottom up to the Third, with the Vikings resuming their rightful place in the lower eight.
HERE ARE YOUR WEEK FIVE NFL QUARTILES...
Top Quartile
Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Seattle.
Second Quartile
Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, New England and San Francisco.
Third Quartile
Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans, New York Giants and Pittsburgh.
Bottom Quartile
Jacksonville,Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington.
(As always - we remind you that listings are alphabetical, not a ranking; it's far too early and pointless to RANK teams at this stage.)
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