As for down under, both Carlton and Melbourne supporters are still partying as we speak, after their teams not only won but won in a manner that implies that they could keep winning with some more play like that! Carlton beat Port Adelaide 110-106 in a game that last year's Power team would never have let get away. This year, though, Port Adelaide simply doesn't have the strength to put away teams, to out-work or out-run them like last year on their way to that magical 11-1 start (since which they are under .500 in the exactly-one-season time). The game was a benchmark for both teams, and spells the direction each should head for the rest of the season.
Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!
More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.
The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:
TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)
By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:
Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)
Showing posts with label Week 12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 12. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Australian update...
As for the AFL, hitting its midseason lull for the three bye weeks to give players a chance to recover a little bit (what LeBron James wouldn't have done for a bye week to recover during the NBA finals!), the league-leading Fremantle Dockers have finally hit a bit of a lull themselves, first losing to Richmond in week 10 and then barely hanging on to beat last-place Gold Coast by seven points this last Saturday!
This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend.
Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.
Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:
Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).
Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).
Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)
This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend.
Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.
Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:
Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).
Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).
Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Random items from Week 12
“There’s Jesus, there’s girls, and there’s Marcus Mariota.” —12-year-old Charlie Pape, following the Ducks’ 44-10 win over Colorado, explaining to Oregon coach Mark Helfrich where Mariota’s future stands in the conversational hierarchy of students at O’Hara Catholic. (Thanks to Matt Hinton at Grantland for the quote!)
WISH I COULD TELL YOU WHERE THESE TWO QUOTES CAME FROM...just know that they're not ours, alas!...
"I call him "the Geno Atkins diet" because once he gets a little bit of bread, he's worthless."
- about NY Jets QB Geno Smith...
"RG3-8 is about to end his career as a sub, instead of just being a spokesman for one."
- about Robert Griffin III in D.C....
And we agree wholeheartedly with Holly Anderson - we LOVE the home v. home jersey tradition that UCLA and USC started last year! Last year, at the Colosseum, UCLA insisted on wearing its home blues, despite being the road team. They were assessed a time out penalty for the infraction; USC then called a time out before its very first play to "level the playing field", if you'll pardon the expression. If the NCAA didn't wisen up this year, I'm sure USC and UCLA played the same infraction game this year, with the roles reversed, and we're sure glad they did: this is such a cool tradition! Remember, for decades, the two schools shared the Colosseum, so they really were both home teams. With UCLA playing in the Rose Bowl these days, it's great to see nostalgia reign!
PS - d'you know how big Los Angeles is? USC and UCLA are both in LA, twelve miles apart...which means they're farther apart than North Carolina and Duke, who played Thursday night - their campuses are only separated by eight miles.
WISH I COULD TELL YOU WHERE THESE TWO QUOTES CAME FROM...just know that they're not ours, alas!...
"I call him "the Geno Atkins diet" because once he gets a little bit of bread, he's worthless."
- about NY Jets QB Geno Smith...
"RG3-8 is about to end his career as a sub, instead of just being a spokesman for one."
- about Robert Griffin III in D.C....
And we agree wholeheartedly with Holly Anderson - we LOVE the home v. home jersey tradition that UCLA and USC started last year! Last year, at the Colosseum, UCLA insisted on wearing its home blues, despite being the road team. They were assessed a time out penalty for the infraction; USC then called a time out before its very first play to "level the playing field", if you'll pardon the expression. If the NCAA didn't wisen up this year, I'm sure USC and UCLA played the same infraction game this year, with the roles reversed, and we're sure glad they did: this is such a cool tradition! Remember, for decades, the two schools shared the Colosseum, so they really were both home teams. With UCLA playing in the Rose Bowl these days, it's great to see nostalgia reign!
PS - d'you know how big Los Angeles is? USC and UCLA are both in LA, twelve miles apart...which means they're farther apart than North Carolina and Duke, who played Thursday night - their campuses are only separated by eight miles.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Bill Barnwell hits the nail on the head (as usual!)
In his week in review column for Grantland, Bill Barnwell addresses most of the interesting items of the NFL weekend, including the Beckham Jr. catch, of course, but also Mike Smith's terrible coaching in the fourth quarter that allowed Cleveland to come back against his Falcons, T.Y. Hilton's exceptional day (his wife gave birth in the morning before his great game for the Colts), and the "Rabona" onside kick from Miami's Caleb Sturgis - a thing of brilliance...
Sunday, November 23, 2014
And here are the NFL tiers and rankings after Nov 23!
With Hamilton and Calgary on their way to play in the 102nd CFL Grey Cup next Sunday in Vancouver, we check in on the NFL and tier them into seven levels (simply because that's how they happened to pan out!) and rankings 1-32:
A1. New England Patriots (was 2 last week)
A2. Green Bay Packers (was 3)
A3. Arizona Cardinals (was 1)
A4. Denver Broncos (was 4)
B5. Philadelphia Eagles (was 6)
B6. Dallas Cowboys (was 5)
B7. Indianapolis Colts (was 8)
C8. Cincinnati Bengals (was 10)
C9. Seattle Seahawks (was 14)
C10. Detroit Lions (was 7)
C11. Baltimore Ravens (was 11)
C12. Miami Dolphins (was 12)
C13. Pittsburgh Steelers (was 13)
D14. Kansas City Chiefs (was 9)
D15. Cleveland Browns (was 16)
D16. San Francisco 49ers (was 15)
D17. San Diego Chargers (was 17)
E18. Buffalo Bills (was 18)
E19. New Orleans Saints (was 20)
E20. St. Louis Rams (was 21)
E21. Houston Texans (was 19)
F22. Chicago Bears (was 22)
F23. New York Giants (was 23)
F24. Atlanta Falcons (was 24)
F25. Minnesota Vikings (was 26)
F26. Washington Redskins (was 27)
F27. Carolina Panthers (was 25)
G28. New York Jets (was 29)
G29. Tennessee Titans (was 28)
G30. Oakland Raiders (was 32)
G31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (was 30)
G32. Jacksonville Jaguars (was 31)
A1. New England Patriots (was 2 last week)
A2. Green Bay Packers (was 3)
A3. Arizona Cardinals (was 1)
A4. Denver Broncos (was 4)
B5. Philadelphia Eagles (was 6)
B6. Dallas Cowboys (was 5)
B7. Indianapolis Colts (was 8)
C8. Cincinnati Bengals (was 10)
C9. Seattle Seahawks (was 14)
C10. Detroit Lions (was 7)
C11. Baltimore Ravens (was 11)
C12. Miami Dolphins (was 12)
C13. Pittsburgh Steelers (was 13)
D14. Kansas City Chiefs (was 9)
D15. Cleveland Browns (was 16)
D16. San Francisco 49ers (was 15)
D17. San Diego Chargers (was 17)
E18. Buffalo Bills (was 18)
E19. New Orleans Saints (was 20)
E20. St. Louis Rams (was 21)
E21. Houston Texans (was 19)
F22. Chicago Bears (was 22)
F23. New York Giants (was 23)
F24. Atlanta Falcons (was 24)
F25. Minnesota Vikings (was 26)
F26. Washington Redskins (was 27)
F27. Carolina Panthers (was 25)
G28. New York Jets (was 29)
G29. Tennessee Titans (was 28)
G30. Oakland Raiders (was 32)
G31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (was 30)
G32. Jacksonville Jaguars (was 31)
Week 12 tiers and rankings, part three...
(...and now we start into the lower level teams...)
TIER O: 86. Texas St (6-5). 87. UAB (5-6). 88. Appalachian St (6-5). 89. Syracuse (3-8). 90. Kansas (3-8).
TIER P: 91. Wyoming (4-7). 92. Purdue (3-8). 93. Ohio (5-6). 94. Colorado (2-9). 95. Iowa St (2-8). 96. Middle Tennessee (6-5).
TIER Q: 97. UL-Monroe (4-7). 98. South Alabama (7-4). 99. Wake Forest (3-8). 100. Indiana (3-8). 101. Hawaii (4-8). 102. Florida Atlantic (4-7). 103. South Florida (4-7).
TIER R: 104. Akron (5-6). 105. Florida International (4-7). 106. Vanderbilt (3-8). 107. Buffalo (4-6). 108. Old Dominion (4-7).
TIER S: 109. Tulane (3-7). 110. Army (4-7). 111. Southern Miss (3-8). 112. North Texas (4-7). 113. Ball St (4-7). 114. San Jose St (3-8). 115. New Mexico (3-8).
TIER T: 116. U Mass (3-8). 117. UT-San Antonio (3-8). 118. Miami-OH (2-9). 119. Troy (3-8). 120. Tulsa (2-9). 121. UNLV (2-10).
TIER U: 122. U Conn (2-8). 123. Eastern Michigan (2-9). 124. New Mexico St (2-9). 125. Kent St (1-9). 126. Idaho (1-9).
TIER V: 127. Georgia St (1-10). 128. SMU (0-10).
TIER O: 86. Texas St (6-5). 87. UAB (5-6). 88. Appalachian St (6-5). 89. Syracuse (3-8). 90. Kansas (3-8).
TIER P: 91. Wyoming (4-7). 92. Purdue (3-8). 93. Ohio (5-6). 94. Colorado (2-9). 95. Iowa St (2-8). 96. Middle Tennessee (6-5).
TIER Q: 97. UL-Monroe (4-7). 98. South Alabama (7-4). 99. Wake Forest (3-8). 100. Indiana (3-8). 101. Hawaii (4-8). 102. Florida Atlantic (4-7). 103. South Florida (4-7).
TIER R: 104. Akron (5-6). 105. Florida International (4-7). 106. Vanderbilt (3-8). 107. Buffalo (4-6). 108. Old Dominion (4-7).
TIER S: 109. Tulane (3-7). 110. Army (4-7). 111. Southern Miss (3-8). 112. North Texas (4-7). 113. Ball St (4-7). 114. San Jose St (3-8). 115. New Mexico (3-8).
TIER T: 116. U Mass (3-8). 117. UT-San Antonio (3-8). 118. Miami-OH (2-9). 119. Troy (3-8). 120. Tulsa (2-9). 121. UNLV (2-10).
TIER U: 122. U Conn (2-8). 123. Eastern Michigan (2-9). 124. New Mexico St (2-9). 125. Kent St (1-9). 126. Idaho (1-9).
TIER V: 127. Georgia St (1-10). 128. SMU (0-10).
Week 12 tiers and rankings, part 2...
TIER G: 41. Utah St (9-3). 42. Washington (7-5), and Chris Petersen is not far from where his previous team resides! 43. Cincinnati (7-3). 44. East Carolina (7-3). 45. Iowa (7-4). And yes, there are only five in this tier - we're dividing where the natural breaks are!
TIER H. 46. Memphis (8-3). 47. Tennessee (5-6). 48. Boston College (6-5), after a great game at FSU. 49. North Carolina (6-5). 50. Penn St (6-5), and promise for the future. 51. Kentucky (5-6), and what happened to a promising season.... 52. Oklahoma St (5-6), and we could say the same for the Cowboys!
TIER I: 53. BYU (7-4), after beating down a winless FCS team. 54. Air Force (8-3). 55. California (5-6). 56. North Carolina St (6-5). 57. Central Florida (7-3).
TIER J: 58. Northern Illinois (9-2), but not like they were! 59. Pitt (5-6), with a win they HAD to have. 60. Rutgers (6-5). 61. Oregon St (5-6). 62. Navy (5-5).
TIER K: 63. Virginia Tech (5-6), after a terrible loss against Wake in 2OT. 64. Western Michigan (8-3). 65. Michigan (5-6), in Hoke's last season. 66. Nevada (6-5). 67. Louisiana Tech (7-4). And so ends the mid-level teams...and so begin the mediocre ones,,,
TIER L: 68. Bowling Green (8-3). 69. Georgia Southern (8-3). 70. Northwestern (5-6). 71. Virginia (4-7). 72. UL-Lafayette (7-4). 73. Houston (6-4).
TIER M: 74. Rice (7-4). 75. San Diego St (6-5). 76. Illinois (5-6). 77. Texas Tech (4-7). 79. Fresno St (5-6). 80. Temple (5-5).
TIER N: 81. Arkansas St (6-5). 82. Central Michigan (7-5). 83. Washington St (3-8). 84. Western Kentucky (6-5) and still climbing! 85. UTEP (6-5).
TIER H. 46. Memphis (8-3). 47. Tennessee (5-6). 48. Boston College (6-5), after a great game at FSU. 49. North Carolina (6-5). 50. Penn St (6-5), and promise for the future. 51. Kentucky (5-6), and what happened to a promising season.... 52. Oklahoma St (5-6), and we could say the same for the Cowboys!
TIER I: 53. BYU (7-4), after beating down a winless FCS team. 54. Air Force (8-3). 55. California (5-6). 56. North Carolina St (6-5). 57. Central Florida (7-3).
TIER J: 58. Northern Illinois (9-2), but not like they were! 59. Pitt (5-6), with a win they HAD to have. 60. Rutgers (6-5). 61. Oregon St (5-6). 62. Navy (5-5).
TIER K: 63. Virginia Tech (5-6), after a terrible loss against Wake in 2OT. 64. Western Michigan (8-3). 65. Michigan (5-6), in Hoke's last season. 66. Nevada (6-5). 67. Louisiana Tech (7-4). And so ends the mid-level teams...and so begin the mediocre ones,,,
TIER L: 68. Bowling Green (8-3). 69. Georgia Southern (8-3). 70. Northwestern (5-6). 71. Virginia (4-7). 72. UL-Lafayette (7-4). 73. Houston (6-4).
TIER M: 74. Rice (7-4). 75. San Diego St (6-5). 76. Illinois (5-6). 77. Texas Tech (4-7). 79. Fresno St (5-6). 80. Temple (5-5).
TIER N: 81. Arkansas St (6-5). 82. Central Michigan (7-5). 83. Washington St (3-8). 84. Western Kentucky (6-5) and still climbing! 85. UTEP (6-5).
We reveal our tiers and rankings after Week 12's games...
TIER A: 1. Alabama (10-1). 2. Mississippi St (10-1). 3. Florida St (11-0). 4. Oregon (10-1). 5. Baylor (9-1). 6. TCU (9-1). Same as last week. And yes, FSU is undefeated, but if they were playing 'Bama or MSU on a neutral field, who would be the favorite? That's our standard.
TIER B: 7. Ohio St (10-1). 8. Georgia (9-2). 9. UCLA (9-2), moving up after a strong win against a good team. 10. Michigan St (9-2). 11. Kansas St (8-2). 12. Auburn (8-3). We don't think the two-loss teams have a realistic shot at the playoff at this late point; if anyone, MAYBE the Dogs or Bruins, but that's it.
TIER C: 13. Oklahoma (8-3). 14. Missouri (9-2). 15. Ole Miss (8-3). 16. Wisconsin (9-2). 17. Arizona St (9-2). 18. Arizona (9-2). 19. Georgia Tech (9-2). 20. LSU (7-4). Firstly, yes, there are eight teams, but we feel these eight are very similarly leveled. Second, they're more erratic than A and B, so on any given day, any of these teams could beat the others. And third, can't wait for the Territorial Cup game between Arizona and Arizona St!
TIER D: 21. Minnesota (8-3), with a bullet. 22. Nebraska (8-3), and could've won that game easily. 23. Marshall (11-0). 24. Colorado St (10-1), and we're not at all sure they (or Boise) aren't better than the Herd for that big bowl spot! 25. Clemson (8-3). 26. Texas A&M (7-4).
TIER E: 27. Louisville (8-3), after that great win at Notre Dame. 28. Arkansas (6-5), and you wouldn't want to face them in a bowl game right now! 29. Boise St (9-2), and improving weekly. 30. USC (8-4). 31. Duke (8-3), blowing their chance Thursday night. 32. Notre Dame (7-4), dropping like a rock. 33. Utah (7-4).
TIER F, the transition from the "top level" teams to the "mid-level" ones: 34. Maryland (7-4). 35. Stanford (6-5), with an impressive win at Cal. 36. South Carolina (6-5). 37. Florida (6-4), but not good enough to keep their coach, apparently. 38. West Virginia (6-5). 39. Miami-FL (6-5). 40. Texas (6-5).
TIER B: 7. Ohio St (10-1). 8. Georgia (9-2). 9. UCLA (9-2), moving up after a strong win against a good team. 10. Michigan St (9-2). 11. Kansas St (8-2). 12. Auburn (8-3). We don't think the two-loss teams have a realistic shot at the playoff at this late point; if anyone, MAYBE the Dogs or Bruins, but that's it.
TIER C: 13. Oklahoma (8-3). 14. Missouri (9-2). 15. Ole Miss (8-3). 16. Wisconsin (9-2). 17. Arizona St (9-2). 18. Arizona (9-2). 19. Georgia Tech (9-2). 20. LSU (7-4). Firstly, yes, there are eight teams, but we feel these eight are very similarly leveled. Second, they're more erratic than A and B, so on any given day, any of these teams could beat the others. And third, can't wait for the Territorial Cup game between Arizona and Arizona St!
TIER D: 21. Minnesota (8-3), with a bullet. 22. Nebraska (8-3), and could've won that game easily. 23. Marshall (11-0). 24. Colorado St (10-1), and we're not at all sure they (or Boise) aren't better than the Herd for that big bowl spot! 25. Clemson (8-3). 26. Texas A&M (7-4).
TIER E: 27. Louisville (8-3), after that great win at Notre Dame. 28. Arkansas (6-5), and you wouldn't want to face them in a bowl game right now! 29. Boise St (9-2), and improving weekly. 30. USC (8-4). 31. Duke (8-3), blowing their chance Thursday night. 32. Notre Dame (7-4), dropping like a rock. 33. Utah (7-4).
TIER F, the transition from the "top level" teams to the "mid-level" ones: 34. Maryland (7-4). 35. Stanford (6-5), with an impressive win at Cal. 36. South Carolina (6-5). 37. Florida (6-4), but not good enough to keep their coach, apparently. 38. West Virginia (6-5). 39. Miami-FL (6-5). 40. Texas (6-5).
What games are on tap for Week 12?
Of the sixty FBS games this week, the Las Vegas/Reno casino bookies, the folks who make their living by predicting the (perceived!) outcome of the games agreed with the predictions we made based on the tiered rankings we posted on Sunday.
For the record, we predict the outcome of games as follows: Count the number of tiers that the two teams differ by. So, for example, if one team is Tier B and the other is Tier G, there is a five tier difference (C, D, E, F, G) between them. Then, multiply that by 1 1/2 points for the neutral field advantage the higher team would have. Finally, give the home team an extra three points (if they're favored already, add three to the spread; if they're the underdog, subtract three). There's your prediction. (We've been known to adjust for unusual circumstances: when BYU lost their all-star QB, for example, the tiers had not adjusted for that at the time. Similarly, there might be motivating factors - rivalries, etc. - that urge us to change the spread - but we rarely do! More often than not, what you see is what you get...WYSIWYG!
Here are the games that have a significant difference between our forecasts and theirs:
UMass @ Akron Tuesday ... we say Akron by 3, they say by 7 1/2. They win. Akron 30, UMass 6.
Kansas St @ West Virginia Thursday...we say K-St by 1, they say WV by 2 1/2! Our point! K-St 26, WVU 20.
UTEP @ Rice Friday...we say Rice wins by 2, they say Rice by 9. They lead 2-1. Rice wins big, 31-13.
Fordham @ Army Saturday...no forecast from Vegas because Fordham's an FCS school, but we believe they should be favored over Army by a point! Army 42-31.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St... there are a bunch of routs forecasted where the point difference between a 25 and a 35 point blowout is pointless to quibble over, but in this case, we're going to point out that we see a six-point win for Ball St, and Vegas sees seventeen! They were closer - it was 15. So they lead us 4-1 now...
Maryland @ Michigan... We have the Terps by five, Vegas has Michigan by 4.5! We cheered Maryland's late TD for the win, 23-16!
Florida International @ North Texas...we think it'll be FIU by two; they see UNT by 2! They were on again! UNT 17, FIU 14!
"The Big Game"! Stanford @ California...the home of the greatest, most controversial play in college football history in 1982. We have Cal by 3 1/2, they have Stanford by 6. We were doubly afraid of this one, with all our Berkeley relations...but it was Leland Sanford Junior University with the 38-17 win. Vegas up 6-2 now.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee...We see it as even; they have MTSU by 6 1/2! We're counting this one on our side - one is closer to "even" than it is to six! 35-34, Blue Raiders.
Oklahoma St @ Baylor...Another potential blowout, but our spreads differ significantly - we see Baylor by 11; they think the Bears will win by 27! They'd have been spot on if Baylor wanted to run it up...49-28 in bad weather. 7-2, casinos.
Missouri @ Tennessee is the last game we'll compare - we have Mizzou by 1; they think the Volunteers win at home by 3 1/2. Missouri wins, 29-21, so we go into Sunday down four with four to go. Dormie at 7-3 down...
On the pro side, there are only four games to compare:
Cleveland @ Atlanta... We think Cleveland by 1; they see Atlanta by 3 1/2. And thanks to some terrible clock management, we were vindicated by the Browns' last-second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Houston...We think the Bengals win by 1; Vegas says Houston by 1 1/2. And the Bengals won comfortably. Two for two today - we still have a chance!
Arizona @ Seattle...We differ on the effect of the home field: Arizona by 2 on our board, Seattle by six on theirs!
Baltimore @ New Orleans on Monday night...We call it even; they see the Saints with a 3 1/2 point advantage at home. Looks like it may wait until Monday night to determine whether we win or lose!
For the record, we predict the outcome of games as follows: Count the number of tiers that the two teams differ by. So, for example, if one team is Tier B and the other is Tier G, there is a five tier difference (C, D, E, F, G) between them. Then, multiply that by 1 1/2 points for the neutral field advantage the higher team would have. Finally, give the home team an extra three points (if they're favored already, add three to the spread; if they're the underdog, subtract three). There's your prediction. (We've been known to adjust for unusual circumstances: when BYU lost their all-star QB, for example, the tiers had not adjusted for that at the time. Similarly, there might be motivating factors - rivalries, etc. - that urge us to change the spread - but we rarely do! More often than not, what you see is what you get...WYSIWYG!
Here are the games that have a significant difference between our forecasts and theirs:
UMass @ Akron Tuesday ... we say Akron by 3, they say by 7 1/2. They win. Akron 30, UMass 6.
Kansas St @ West Virginia Thursday...we say K-St by 1, they say WV by 2 1/2! Our point! K-St 26, WVU 20.
UTEP @ Rice Friday...we say Rice wins by 2, they say Rice by 9. They lead 2-1. Rice wins big, 31-13.
Fordham @ Army Saturday...no forecast from Vegas because Fordham's an FCS school, but we believe they should be favored over Army by a point! Army 42-31.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball St... there are a bunch of routs forecasted where the point difference between a 25 and a 35 point blowout is pointless to quibble over, but in this case, we're going to point out that we see a six-point win for Ball St, and Vegas sees seventeen! They were closer - it was 15. So they lead us 4-1 now...
Maryland @ Michigan... We have the Terps by five, Vegas has Michigan by 4.5! We cheered Maryland's late TD for the win, 23-16!
Florida International @ North Texas...we think it'll be FIU by two; they see UNT by 2! They were on again! UNT 17, FIU 14!
"The Big Game"! Stanford @ California...the home of the greatest, most controversial play in college football history in 1982. We have Cal by 3 1/2, they have Stanford by 6. We were doubly afraid of this one, with all our Berkeley relations...but it was Leland Sanford Junior University with the 38-17 win. Vegas up 6-2 now.
Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee...We see it as even; they have MTSU by 6 1/2! We're counting this one on our side - one is closer to "even" than it is to six! 35-34, Blue Raiders.
Oklahoma St @ Baylor...Another potential blowout, but our spreads differ significantly - we see Baylor by 11; they think the Bears will win by 27! They'd have been spot on if Baylor wanted to run it up...49-28 in bad weather. 7-2, casinos.
Missouri @ Tennessee is the last game we'll compare - we have Mizzou by 1; they think the Volunteers win at home by 3 1/2. Missouri wins, 29-21, so we go into Sunday down four with four to go. Dormie at 7-3 down...
On the pro side, there are only four games to compare:
Cleveland @ Atlanta... We think Cleveland by 1; they see Atlanta by 3 1/2. And thanks to some terrible clock management, we were vindicated by the Browns' last-second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Houston...We think the Bengals win by 1; Vegas says Houston by 1 1/2. And the Bengals won comfortably. Two for two today - we still have a chance!
Arizona @ Seattle...We differ on the effect of the home field: Arizona by 2 on our board, Seattle by six on theirs!
Baltimore @ New Orleans on Monday night...We call it even; they see the Saints with a 3 1/2 point advantage at home. Looks like it may wait until Monday night to determine whether we win or lose!
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Remind me again WHY they're playing?
OK, so BYU's an independent, so they need to fill their entire schedule (not just 3 or 4 non-conference games). Got it. But why fly FCS bottom feeder Savannah St all the way to Provo, Utah, for a game? Vegas and Sagarin had this game spread in the fifties; the Cougars are there already at halftime.
As the long break arrives, the BYU Cougars lead 51-0 in points, 18-3 in first downs, and 352-32 in yardage. Suspicion reigns that they should be able to hold on for the win in the second half...
As the long break arrives, the BYU Cougars lead 51-0 in points, 18-3 in first downs, and 352-32 in yardage. Suspicion reigns that they should be able to hold on for the win in the second half...
Early Game Update!
From the first set of games on this Week 12 Saturday...
- Big Ten games: except for the Gopher - Husker tussle (which ended in a Minnesota 28-24 win), it was mostly routs - Michigan St over Rutgers, 45-3; Northwestern beat Purdue 38-14, and Ohio St survived Indiana 42-27 (although the Hoosiers led 21-20 in the third). Illinois did put some fun into the afternoon, though, kicking a field goal late to win 16-14 against Penn St.
- Semi bye week in the south started with Florida over Eastern Kentucky 52-3, Georgia handled Charleston Southern 55-9, South Carolina took down South Alabama of the Sun Belt, 37-12, and Army upset FCS Fordham (in our opinion!) 42-31.
- And in other interesting games in the Bowl division, Western Kentucky took down UT-San Antonio 45-7; SMU lost their tenth of the year, 53-7, to UCF; Marshall survived UAB 23-18, thanks to a punt downed at the 1 followed by a fumble recovery in the end zone; Houston 38, Tulsa 28; and the defensive struggle that went into overtime scoreless, eventually ending in a hockey shootout - kinda, sorta. Anyway, Wake Forest's kicker made both of his attempts, and Virginia Tech's went 1-2; therefore, Demon Deacons 6, Hokies 3, in the battle of cool mascots in Winston-Salem, NC!
- The Game ended with an 80-yard drive that gave the Crimson of Harvard their 18th Ivy League title and a 31–24 comeback win over arch-nemesis Yale...Rhode Island won their first game in over a year, overcoming Towson 13-7!...And Coastal Carolina LOST their first of the year, falling to Liberty 15-14 on a late field goal to drop to 11-1.
- Big Ten games: except for the Gopher - Husker tussle (which ended in a Minnesota 28-24 win), it was mostly routs - Michigan St over Rutgers, 45-3; Northwestern beat Purdue 38-14, and Ohio St survived Indiana 42-27 (although the Hoosiers led 21-20 in the third). Illinois did put some fun into the afternoon, though, kicking a field goal late to win 16-14 against Penn St.
- Semi bye week in the south started with Florida over Eastern Kentucky 52-3, Georgia handled Charleston Southern 55-9, South Carolina took down South Alabama of the Sun Belt, 37-12, and Army upset FCS Fordham (in our opinion!) 42-31.
- And in other interesting games in the Bowl division, Western Kentucky took down UT-San Antonio 45-7; SMU lost their tenth of the year, 53-7, to UCF; Marshall survived UAB 23-18, thanks to a punt downed at the 1 followed by a fumble recovery in the end zone; Houston 38, Tulsa 28; and the defensive struggle that went into overtime scoreless, eventually ending in a hockey shootout - kinda, sorta. Anyway, Wake Forest's kicker made both of his attempts, and Virginia Tech's went 1-2; therefore, Demon Deacons 6, Hokies 3, in the battle of cool mascots in Winston-Salem, NC!
- The Game ended with an 80-yard drive that gave the Crimson of Harvard their 18th Ivy League title and a 31–24 comeback win over arch-nemesis Yale...Rhode Island won their first game in over a year, overcoming Towson 13-7!...And Coastal Carolina LOST their first of the year, falling to Liberty 15-14 on a late field goal to drop to 11-1.
Now you have the ball...
...and now you don't! Less than two minutes left, Nebraska down 28-24 to B1G rival Minnesota, driving for a winning touchdown. Just as the Cornhusker receiver is close to scoring, the Gophers' Brian Boddy-Calhoun literally just TAKES the ball out of his hands! From there, Minnesota makes a first down and runs the clock out to defeat Nebraska by four. THAT is a game-saving play!
We've got VA-Tech at Wake on the TV...
...and the next channel over has the round futbol on - Manchester United at Arsenal. Currently both games are in the second half, and the soccer game has outscored the ACC match-up! While Man-U is close to winning, 2-1, Wake and the Hokies are still scoreless deep into the third quarter!
UPDATE: they've now entered the fourth quarter, and this is now the first FBS game of the year without a score through three quarters! (It was one of four scoreless at halftime, two of which, oddly, were at Northwestern!)
UPDATE: Wake made a great 2-minute drive, freshman QB John Worford runs and throws like a seasoned veteran, they got down inside the VT 20...and Mike Weaver missed his third FG attempt of the game. Zero-zero overtime coming up.
FINAL: Weaver made up for his earlier miss(es) by making a 49-yarder in the first OT and the game-winner from 38 in the second; WF wins its first conference game of the year by the improbable score of 6-3!
UPDATE: they've now entered the fourth quarter, and this is now the first FBS game of the year without a score through three quarters! (It was one of four scoreless at halftime, two of which, oddly, were at Northwestern!)
UPDATE: Wake made a great 2-minute drive, freshman QB John Worford runs and throws like a seasoned veteran, they got down inside the VT 20...and Mike Weaver missed his third FG attempt of the game. Zero-zero overtime coming up.
FINAL: Weaver made up for his earlier miss(es) by making a 49-yarder in the first OT and the game-winner from 38 in the second; WF wins its first conference game of the year by the improbable score of 6-3!
Back to normal for SMU...
Eight minutes into bottom tier SMU's game at Central Florida, it's 14-0 UCF:
UCF - 18 plays, 148 yards, 10 first downs, two TDs.
SMU - 1 play, 0 yards, 0 first downs, 1 interception.
Go, Mustangs...
UCF - 18 plays, 148 yards, 10 first downs, two TDs.
SMU - 1 play, 0 yards, 0 first downs, 1 interception.
Go, Mustangs...
This bodes well for Yale, among others...
As November enters its latter stages, the biggest rivalries take center spotlight space starting this week. Here's encouraging news for those underdog rivals: The two rivalry games Thursday evening were won by the underdog! In Durham, NC, the North Carolina Tar Heels absolutely dominated the favored and ranked (and FF darling!) Duke Blue Devils, winning 45-20 but leaving another twenty or more points on the table with red zone turnovers, and eliminating their rival from the chance of winning the ACC Coastal division.
Across the country, in the grunginess of the Oakland Coliseum, the Oakland Raiders finally finished the deal, knocking their old AFC partners and foes, the Kansas City Chiefs, off their five-game win streak and out of a playoff spot for the moment with a 24-20 win with an EIGHTEEN-PLAY drive, unbelievable for a team which also committed THREE penalties on a fourth down play that could've ended the game in their favor. But like when we discussed SMU last week, Bottom Six teams have a quality about them...an uncertainty, if you like - that most teams don't have.
Across the country, in the grunginess of the Oakland Coliseum, the Oakland Raiders finally finished the deal, knocking their old AFC partners and foes, the Kansas City Chiefs, off their five-game win streak and out of a playoff spot for the moment with a 24-20 win with an EIGHTEEN-PLAY drive, unbelievable for a team which also committed THREE penalties on a fourth down play that could've ended the game in their favor. But like when we discussed SMU last week, Bottom Six teams have a quality about them...an uncertainty, if you like - that most teams don't have.
Highlights of the upcoming Week 12...
Games of interest for the week of November 18-24, 2014...
RIVALRIES! North Carolina @ Duke Thursday night (Duke favored by 6-9 points), and the Kansas City Chiefs head to Oakland Raiders that night as well (KC by 8). The other big FBS rivalries are in California: Stanford @ Cal in the afternoon, and USC @ UCLA in the evening (both FF and Vegas favor the Bruins by 3, so it's a pick'em game on a neutral field!). But the really fun rivalries are in the FCS, where Saturday is the day of The Game: Yale @ Harvard (Harvard should be a 16 point favorite), as well as two classics out west: Sacramento St @ UC Davis (the Hornets are favored by one on the road) and Montana St @ Montana (the Griz should win by 4 at home). Update: upsets Thursday! Duke loses BIG, 45-20, and the Raiders beat the spread AND KC, 24-20!
CANADIAN LEAGUE CONFERENCE FINALS on Sunday! It's going to be Montreal @ Hamilton, the rubber match of the Eastern Conference slugfest! Hamilton won the last game of the season by more than Montreal beat them earlier, thereby securing the home field for this game to determine the East's entry into the 102nd Grey Cup! We see this as a pick'em game on a neutral field, so give the Ti-Cats the edge at home by three.
Meanwhile, Edmonton earned the right to travel to Calgary for the Western Conference final, where they'll be heavy underdogs against the best team in the regular season at 15-3. We pick the Stampeders by 10 at home, but Edmonton has shown that they're the best hope of preventing Calgary from raising the Cup this year, with a pair of 9-9 teams battling for the chance to face this game's winner next week.
BACK ON THIS SIDE OF THE 49th PARALLEL, there are some great games coming up this weekend! The K-State/WVU matchup Thursday should be a lot of fun, as will Minnesota @ Nebraska on Saturday. Curiosity as to what Kansas will do at Oklahoma - can they continue the strong play of their last two (home) games? Arizona @ Utah offers a hope of some great play, as does Ole Miss @ Arkansas.
THERE ARE SOME BAD MATCH-UPS out there, too...Why are you playing FCS teams at this stage of the season, Florida? Georgia? Alabama? Auburn? For all the chest-puffing and boasting the SEC does, games like this (against Eastern Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Western Carolina, and Samford) make them look foolish and scared. Which is foolish, since they could easily schedule a lower level FBS school if they needed another bodybag game, for the pre-season! If you need a break from the admitted rigors of the SEC schedule, put a bye in there!
The worst one, however, is our old pal Savannah St, who plays their (ahem) traditional rival BYU on Saturday afternoon. Our tier system and Sagarin's ratings make this about a 55-point spread, meaning the Cougars should win by eight touchdowns. WHY? Why play this game at all? Was BYU that desperate for a game that they had to schedule the lowest level FCS team they could find?
There are two other interesting games in the FCS: former multiple champion Youngstown St plays at current multiple champion North Dakota St (the Bison are twenty point faves), and on the other end of the scale, Towson goes to bottom-feeder Rhode Island, just about the only team lower than they are (Towson's a seven point fave).
And we CAN'T FORGET THE NFL, the league that never goes dark! Following the Adrian Peterson verdict today (out the rest of the season), it'll be interesting to see the Viking crowd reaction when Green Bay comes in Sunday and runs up fifty on them,too. Detroit's got a big challenge, going to New England the week after seeing them annihilate Indy. Miami has a great test this week too, going into Mile High to face Denver. Finally, in the spirit of the SEC, the Jacksonville Jaguars go into Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts, a 15-point favorite (a line you very rarely see in the NFL, but a very accurate one in our opinion). Pittsburgh and Carolina get the last byes of the season this week.
RIVALRIES! North Carolina @ Duke Thursday night (Duke favored by 6-9 points), and the Kansas City Chiefs head to Oakland Raiders that night as well (KC by 8). The other big FBS rivalries are in California: Stanford @ Cal in the afternoon, and USC @ UCLA in the evening (both FF and Vegas favor the Bruins by 3, so it's a pick'em game on a neutral field!). But the really fun rivalries are in the FCS, where Saturday is the day of The Game: Yale @ Harvard (Harvard should be a 16 point favorite), as well as two classics out west: Sacramento St @ UC Davis (the Hornets are favored by one on the road) and Montana St @ Montana (the Griz should win by 4 at home). Update: upsets Thursday! Duke loses BIG, 45-20, and the Raiders beat the spread AND KC, 24-20!
CANADIAN LEAGUE CONFERENCE FINALS on Sunday! It's going to be Montreal @ Hamilton, the rubber match of the Eastern Conference slugfest! Hamilton won the last game of the season by more than Montreal beat them earlier, thereby securing the home field for this game to determine the East's entry into the 102nd Grey Cup! We see this as a pick'em game on a neutral field, so give the Ti-Cats the edge at home by three.
Meanwhile, Edmonton earned the right to travel to Calgary for the Western Conference final, where they'll be heavy underdogs against the best team in the regular season at 15-3. We pick the Stampeders by 10 at home, but Edmonton has shown that they're the best hope of preventing Calgary from raising the Cup this year, with a pair of 9-9 teams battling for the chance to face this game's winner next week.
BACK ON THIS SIDE OF THE 49th PARALLEL, there are some great games coming up this weekend! The K-State/WVU matchup Thursday should be a lot of fun, as will Minnesota @ Nebraska on Saturday. Curiosity as to what Kansas will do at Oklahoma - can they continue the strong play of their last two (home) games? Arizona @ Utah offers a hope of some great play, as does Ole Miss @ Arkansas.
THERE ARE SOME BAD MATCH-UPS out there, too...Why are you playing FCS teams at this stage of the season, Florida? Georgia? Alabama? Auburn? For all the chest-puffing and boasting the SEC does, games like this (against Eastern Kentucky, Charleston Southern, Western Carolina, and Samford) make them look foolish and scared. Which is foolish, since they could easily schedule a lower level FBS school if they needed another bodybag game, for the pre-season! If you need a break from the admitted rigors of the SEC schedule, put a bye in there!
The worst one, however, is our old pal Savannah St, who plays their (ahem) traditional rival BYU on Saturday afternoon. Our tier system and Sagarin's ratings make this about a 55-point spread, meaning the Cougars should win by eight touchdowns. WHY? Why play this game at all? Was BYU that desperate for a game that they had to schedule the lowest level FCS team they could find?
There are two other interesting games in the FCS: former multiple champion Youngstown St plays at current multiple champion North Dakota St (the Bison are twenty point faves), and on the other end of the scale, Towson goes to bottom-feeder Rhode Island, just about the only team lower than they are (Towson's a seven point fave).
And we CAN'T FORGET THE NFL, the league that never goes dark! Following the Adrian Peterson verdict today (out the rest of the season), it'll be interesting to see the Viking crowd reaction when Green Bay comes in Sunday and runs up fifty on them,too. Detroit's got a big challenge, going to New England the week after seeing them annihilate Indy. Miami has a great test this week too, going into Mile High to face Denver. Finally, in the spirit of the SEC, the Jacksonville Jaguars go into Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts, a 15-point favorite (a line you very rarely see in the NFL, but a very accurate one in our opinion). Pittsburgh and Carolina get the last byes of the season this week.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Raiders win! Raiders W--- !...well, "Raiders Fail To Lose!" seems more accurate.
Last night the Oakland Raiders leaped out to a two TD lead on the Kansas City Chiefs, who were in between important games on a Thursday night in a mudpit in a stadium that only vaguely resembles an NFL facility. Eventually, Alex Smith led the Chiefs back, and by the fourth quarter had not only tied the game at 17 but moved ahead of the 0-10 Raiders, 20-17.
Should be lights out, right?
To their credit, the Raiders and Fresno St product Derek Carr went on a lengthy, game-defining drive that will rank as the highlight of the season if the rest goes the way it has been: eighteen plays, 80 yards, seven and one-half minutes, capped off by Carr's only touchdown pass of the night to put the Raiders safely ahead, 24-20, with under two minutes to go.
Yeah, but still...I mean, it's the Raiders, man! The Chiefs came back, right?
Well, they tried to. Smith led an, um, interesting drive which included a fourth down conversion attempt that failed...except that Oakland committed not one, not two, but three penalties on the game-winning play that prevented it from being the game-winning penalty.
They also had one of the most comical sacks in the history of football. The video of that, along with some fantastic writing and analysis from Bill Barnwell of Grantland, is in the link contained here. (Enjoy!) But yes, the Raiders won their first game in 52 1/2 weeks (short work week prevented 53!), outscoring the Chiefs 24-20 in Oakland last night.
Should be lights out, right?
To their credit, the Raiders and Fresno St product Derek Carr went on a lengthy, game-defining drive that will rank as the highlight of the season if the rest goes the way it has been: eighteen plays, 80 yards, seven and one-half minutes, capped off by Carr's only touchdown pass of the night to put the Raiders safely ahead, 24-20, with under two minutes to go.
Yeah, but still...I mean, it's the Raiders, man! The Chiefs came back, right?
Well, they tried to. Smith led an, um, interesting drive which included a fourth down conversion attempt that failed...except that Oakland committed not one, not two, but three penalties on the game-winning play that prevented it from being the game-winning penalty.
They also had one of the most comical sacks in the history of football. The video of that, along with some fantastic writing and analysis from Bill Barnwell of Grantland, is in the link contained here. (Enjoy!) But yes, the Raiders won their first game in 52 1/2 weeks (short work week prevented 53!), outscoring the Chiefs 24-20 in Oakland last night.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
We're in love with Holly Anderson...
Here's Holly's guide to the upcoming week watching college football, including the in-stadium pillow fight in South Dakota, the rivalry games on tap, and a woman riding an alligator!
The CANADIAN conference finals are Sunday, and here's a guide for us Yanks!
Matthew Cauz has generously provided a Top 20 list of who and what to pay attention to if you're an American watching or listening to the CFL Eastern and Western Finals this weekend, leading up to the 102nd Grey Cup Championship one week from Sunday.
If you're looking for all the hot scoops and basic knowledge about Sunday's Montreal @ Hamilton Eastern Final, or the Edmonton @ Calgary Western Final, this is the place to read all about it. You'll also find links there on CFL.com.ca to stories from all angles, as well as great recaps from the entire CFL season. (Hard to imagine a form of football that's more wide open than Canadian brand - 150 yard field, back line to back line; three down, motion completely legal - unless it was the Australian brand!)
If you're looking for all the hot scoops and basic knowledge about Sunday's Montreal @ Hamilton Eastern Final, or the Edmonton @ Calgary Western Final, this is the place to read all about it. You'll also find links there on CFL.com.ca to stories from all angles, as well as great recaps from the entire CFL season. (Hard to imagine a form of football that's more wide open than Canadian brand - 150 yard field, back line to back line; three down, motion completely legal - unless it was the Australian brand!)
If anyone sees Buffalo, please report it to missing persons...
Last night's game between Kent St and Buffalo was cancelled on account of the 5-6 feet of lake effect snow that's swamping the city of Buffalo over the last 48 hours, with more on the way today. Here's an article from NBC News on the record snowfall - and "record snowfall" for Buffalo is really saying something!
How will it affect the potential game there Sunday between the Bills and the NY Jets?
Firstly, if it can't be played, it can't be played. Odds are neither team will need to make it up, to be blunt - certainly not the Jersey Jettisons, and (alas) probably not Buffalo with twelve teams in the AFC at .500 or above right now fighting for six playoff spots.
But secondly, the Buffalo team can't even practice right now. They're conferencing via internet, studying film at home, and that sort of thing, because that's all they CAN do.
Mark Schlereth of ESPN had some great points this morning, speaking on "Mike and Mike In The Morning" on ESPN Radio. The skills that every pro athlete uses every game - footwork, handwork, etc. - has to be honed every day in practice. Like a fine musician, missing one day of practice is devastating; missing a week is deadly. But his other point is more frightening - just because these athletes are paid doesn't mean they TRAIN like professionals. How many of the Buffalo players are treating this like a mini-vacation? Even if unintentionally, it's too easy to sit back, play with the kids, scan the sattelite dish for old movies or new sports, instead of working on your job, the one you're paid to be outstanding at. Come Sunday, assuming the game goes on, we may discover who on the Buffalo team made constructive use of the snow time - and who didn't.
How will it affect the potential game there Sunday between the Bills and the NY Jets?
Firstly, if it can't be played, it can't be played. Odds are neither team will need to make it up, to be blunt - certainly not the Jersey Jettisons, and (alas) probably not Buffalo with twelve teams in the AFC at .500 or above right now fighting for six playoff spots.
But secondly, the Buffalo team can't even practice right now. They're conferencing via internet, studying film at home, and that sort of thing, because that's all they CAN do.
Mark Schlereth of ESPN had some great points this morning, speaking on "Mike and Mike In The Morning" on ESPN Radio. The skills that every pro athlete uses every game - footwork, handwork, etc. - has to be honed every day in practice. Like a fine musician, missing one day of practice is devastating; missing a week is deadly. But his other point is more frightening - just because these athletes are paid doesn't mean they TRAIN like professionals. How many of the Buffalo players are treating this like a mini-vacation? Even if unintentionally, it's too easy to sit back, play with the kids, scan the sattelite dish for old movies or new sports, instead of working on your job, the one you're paid to be outstanding at. Come Sunday, assuming the game goes on, we may discover who on the Buffalo team made constructive use of the snow time - and who didn't.
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