Alright, so we're experimenting here...

To be frank, we're not all that satisfied with our ELO rating system, for either Australian Rules Football or for the Canadian brand in the CFL so far this season. It's doing an adequate job of forecasting the outcome of games, but no better than what we can do on our own - and in the CFL, that's saying something!

Sidelight: Here's how unpredictable the CFL has been so far this year. For comparison, we'll start with the footy season...

In the tipping contest AFL.com.au is running, the range of scores from the contestants spans from a low right around 50% correct (flipping a coin) to a high of 77% (we are currently running very close to the top, around 75%). An average score is around 60%. Got all that?

For the CFL contest, there have been eight games played so far. 
NOBODY has gotten all eight right.
Only TWO people (out of 11,000) have gotten SEVEN right.
We have successfully predicted only three out of the eight games so far, worse than fifty-fifty...yet we are in the top-half of the contest (the average score is about 2 1/2 right, out of eight). 
We are still doing better than the professionals, however: BoDog, the official gambling outlet for the CFL, has posted the line for each game and been WRONG 75% choosing the winner. 
Impressively, the CFL.ca writer in charge of predicting games for the league, Jamie Nye, is five for eight so far - WAY above average!
The problem has been the quarterbacks: So many have been knocked out of games that the favorites become the underdogs DURING the game! In four of the games already, starters have left the game for the favorites, leaving the underdogs to rise up and win. Two others were severely altered by substitute QB play, one in either direction (we can't WAIT to see Marshall's Rakeem Cato play again for Montreal!).

So, back to our experiment:

One of the difficulties with taking as your starting point the way a team ended the previous season is that they change so much over the off-season, and your rating can't keep up because you can't know how those changes will work. So we're re-calculating the seasons in various different ways, by hand, and placing more emphasis on the first of the season games and then tapering off to the normal rate of adjustment as the teams settle in. So far, though, while we've created versions that match the more conventional ratings and power rankings, we've not been able to make one which more accurately predicts the games themselves, which was the entire point of reworking the model. 

So, we're still re-working the model. Until then, you'll continue to see the version we've been running. By the way, speaking of that...

CFL - entering Week 3
Hamilton (41.5) - 1-1
Toronto (35.1) - 2-0
Calgary (32.9) - 1-1
Edmonton (30.4) - 0-1
Montreal (29.8) - 1-1
BC Lions (27.4) - 0-1
Saskatchewan (27.0) 0-2
Ottawa (24.4) - 2-0
Winnipeg (21.5) - 1-1

AFL - entering Round 15
Hawthorn (82.8) - 9-4
West Coast (78.5) - 10-3
Sydney (70.0) - 10-3
Fremantle (67.1) - 12-1
Richmond (61.0) - 8-5
Collingwood (60.0) - 8-5
Geelong (57.7) - 6-6-1
Port Adelaide (56.1) - 5-8
Adelaide (52.8) - 7-5-1
North Melbourne (52.2) - 6-7
Western Bulldogs (44.8) - 8-5
GWS Giants (41.7) - 7-6
St. Kilda (36.4) - 5-8
Gold Coast (31.6) - 2-11
Melbourne (30.8) - 4-9
Essendon (30.1) - 4-9
Carlton (26.5) - 3-10
Brisbane (18.9) - 2-11

Here is the Canadian Football season in a nutshell so far:

Our selections in the AFL have been spot on all year; we've gotten 84 out of 116 correct this season, (75%) and sit in the top third of 1% in every grouping we're part of in the official AFL "tipping" contest (that's what they call predicting down under). So we know how to pick games. 

In the CFL, we're 3 out of 8 so far. (Which is better than the odds makers at BoDog, the official CFL gambling site, who have only gotten two games right so far.) Despite what actually passes as worse than "flip a coin" prognostication, we're in the top half of the pool already, and moving up. Go figure.

Last weekend, in Round 2, the Eastern Division somehow went 4-0 against the "vastly superior" West, with Hamilton annihilating 1-0 Winnipeg 52-26 - and that was the LEAST of the four results! - "quarterbackless Montreal crushing defending champion Calgary 29-11 behind first-time starter Raheem Cato (of Marshall U fame); Ottawa matched its 2014 win total sixteen games early by upending the British Columbia Lions 27-16; and in the game of the young season so far, two incredibly proficient teams went toe-to-toe, slugging it out as long as theoretically possible - more on that in a moment - before Toronto upset Saskatchewan in the Mosaic in Regina 42-40 in double overtime. Two great writers to follow on Canadian football are Don Landry and Pat Steinberg on cfl.ca; here are their wrap-ups.

Backup QB Trevor Harris drove the Argonauts down for the tying score late in the fourth, and the teams traded touchdowns (and missed mandatory 2-pt conversions) in the first overtime together. In the CFL, OTs are run in the same basic Kansas City format the NCAA uses, except each possession starts from the 35 (the extra ten yards account for the goal posts being ten yards closer, on the goal line itself). They only allow two overtimes at most in a regular season game, and 2-pt conversions are required on all TDs. The Roughriders made their second TD to come within two of Toronto in the second OT, and then on the by-definition last play of the game, the Argos stopped Saskatchewan from converting to win the game by two. 

So right now, Toronto and Ottawa are 2-0 in the East (Toronto has a 17 point higher rating at the moment), with Hamilton and Montreal a game back at 1-1. Calgary still leads the West, tied with Winnipeg at 1-1; BC and Edmonton each sit at 0-1, and the Roughriders have looked good two straight weeks and are 0-2 to show for it. 

Next week, we see these likelihoods:
Edmonton over Ottawa 19-13 at home...Winnipeg at home over Montreal 28-23...Saskatchewan over BC 30-24 in Vancouver...Calgary edging Toronto 24-23 at home. The Hamilton Ti-Cats have the week off.

AFL leading players as of week 3

Using a combination of the coaches' votes (the AFLCA has the opposing coaches each vote for the outstanding players of the game, on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale) and the AFL's team of the week (the first fifteen are designated with 8 points each; those marked as "followers" and "interchange" are given 5 points). [For the Brownlow medal, the voters are the officials refereeing the game, on a 3-2-1 basis. But those votes are kept secret until the ceremony at the end of the season.]

Just to give you an idea, here are the leaders for each individual team in the AFL:

Adelaide: Rory Sloane (34 pts)
Brisbane: Daniel Rich (4 pts)
Carlton: Sam Docherty (3 pts)
Collingwood: Dane Swan (18 pts)
Essendon: Cale Hooker (34 pts)
Fremantle: Nat Fyfe (36 pts - overall leader)
Geelong: Joel Selwood (15 pts)
Gold Coast: Michael Rischatelli (5 pts)
GWS: Dylan Shiel (27 pts)
Hawthorn: Jordan Lewis (26 pts)
Melbourne: Tom McDonald (25 pts)
No. Melbourne: Jarrad Waite (16 pts)
Port Adelaide: Brad Ebert (21 pts)
Richmond: Trent Cotchin (18 pts)
St. Kilda: David Armitage (18 pts)
Sydney: Lance Franklin (26 pts)
West Coast: Jeremy McGovern and Josh Kennedy (18 pts)
Western: Marcus Bontempelli (18 pts).

AFL's Week 3 results...

Collingwood 140, St. Kilda 66... The Saints started strong, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with almost anyone in the AFL.

Essendon 105, Carlton 84...Similarly, Carlton's fourth quarter was good but they don't have the players to stay up to speed with even a low-finals club like the Dons.

Adelaide 80, Melbourne 55...Similarly, the Demons are improving and were able to stay with the 3-0 Crows for most of the game, but after four quarters Adelaide was going to outrun Melbourne.

Sydney 111, Greater Western Sydney 90...and the Giants are in the same boat, able to stay with the Swans for three quarters but not four.

Port Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 105...This was the one competitive game of the round (which went completely to form) - two very good teams in a very close and well-played game, which the home team Power won by about a goal.

Richmond 137, Brisbane 58...Another game between a team fighting for finals and one that certainly won't be.

Hawthorn 127, Western Bulldogs 57...See previous comments. Western is improving quickly, but they're not ready to beat the two-time defenders.

Geelong 105, Gold Coast 96...Two teams starting the game 0-2, both with severe problems that the other exploited at different times in the game. Geelong's too slow for most teams, and in the 2nd and 4th quarters the Suns ran past them, but Gold Coast has major defensive woes, which the Cats exploited in spades the rest of the game.

Fremantle 111, West Coast 81...The score is far too close for the actual game. At one point, the Dockers led 69 to 4! The Eagles scored nine of the last ten goals in the Western Derby to make the score look vaguely respectable, but there's no comparison between the two teams right now.

Records after round three...
3-0: Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2-1: Hawthorn, Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, GWS, Western
1-2: West Coast, Geelong, Port Adelaide, No. Melbourne, St. Kilda
0-3: Gold Coast, Carlton, Brisbane.

AFL Week 2 in Review/Preview Week 3

What a wild week of footy! Here are the game results from this weekend just concluded...

West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.

Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.

GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.

Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.

St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.

Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.

Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!

Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.

North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond. 

THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS - 
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.