Okay, now all the votes are in...

...from The Age, Sports Fan Australia, Following Football, and AFL.com.au, and here's your All-AFL 2015 team at mid-season:

Behind the 50:
Alex Rance (Rich) - the outstanding on-ball defender in the game today.
Sam Mitchell (Haw)
Michael Hurley (Ess)
Jarred McVeigh (Syd)
Tom McDonald (Mel)
Matt Boyd (Western)

Between the 50s: 
Nat Fyfe (Fre) - Polled 6+ points voting EVERY round Freo's played (no one else has polled in more than 10 of their games)
Matt Priddis (WCE)
David Armitage (StK)
Todd Goldstein (NMK)
Dan Hannebury (Syd)
Dylan Shiel (GWS)

Forward of 50:
Lance Franklin (Syd) - it's rare that the highest paid player's also the best, but Buddy is...
Scott Pendelbury (Col)
Luke Parker (Syd)
Jamie Elliot (Col)
Josh Kennedy (WCE)
Eddie Betts (Ade)

Interchange:
Aaron Sandilands (Fre) - the premier ruckman in the game today. 
Andrew Gaff (WCE)
Corey Enright (Geel)
Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)

And, on my personal wish list to watch play any day of the week:
Cyril Rioli (Haw) - Along with Betts, the most exciting player in the game!
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) - the top goal scorer of 2017 and beyond...
Adam Goodes (Syd) - enjoying a fantastic resurgence since May!
Nic Natainui (WCE) - the most athletic player in footy
Rob Murphy (WB) - always on the ball, literally
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) - 2019 Brownlow medalist
Chad Wingard (PA) - a down year for him and Port; still a phenomenal player
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) - Jack would have been player 23 on the All-Aussie list
Jesse Hogan (Melb) - rookie of the year, possibly
Gary Ablett, Jr. (GC) - it took just one game to remind us why he's the greatest player of his generation and the Brownlow favorite any year he's healthy (and some he's not, like 2014!).

(And, by the way, here are our top 22 point getters in voting for Player of the Year so far:)
NAME                           TEAM               POINTS

Fyfe, Nat	F	221
Hannebury, Dan	SY	124
Armitage, David	SK	112
Pendlebury, Scott	CO	106
Cotchin, Trent	R	101
Shiel, Dylan	GW	100
Mitchell, Sam	H	92
Priddis, Matt	WC	91
Goldstein, Todd	NM	88
Steven, Jack	SK	83
Gray, Robbie	PA	81
Murphy, Marc	CA	80
Beams, Dayne	B	80
Franklin, Lance	SY	79
Kennedy, Josh	SY	75
Martin, Dustin	R	74
Dangerfield, Patrick	A	73
Gaff, Andrew	WC	73
Hurley, Michael	E	70
Parker, Luke	SY	70
Murphy, Robert	WB	69
Neale, Lachie	F	68

 

AFL Round 14 in review

The biggest rout of the year took place on Sunday afternoon (which was Saturday night here in the US), when St Kilda upset free-falling Essendon by the astronomical score of 162-52, a 110-point victory!

Throughout the game, the Saints played against a defense that resembled cones in a practice drill (or "witches' hats", if you prefer the down under term). To score 25 goals in a game is hard to do in a game of footy, but the lack of energy in the Bomber personnel was, to be kind, disheartening.

The commemoration of murdered Adelaide head coach Phil Walsh, begun Friday night at the Collingwood/Hawthorn game, continued at every game throughout the weekend - a stirring tribute to a fellow "lifer" from the footy community. The idea that teams can go tooth-and-nail for two hours and then come together and live out the Adelaide 2015 campaign motto, #weflyasone, was superb. We posted Rohan Connelly's plea to continue the camaraderie beyond this weekend, and we join him in those pleas.

As for the actual games that were played this weekend... 

Sydney over Port Adelaide by 10; Hawthorn by 10 over Collingwood; Richmond struggled past a toughened GWS with a nine-point win, and Western had the same difficulty with Carlton before they managed an eleven-point victory. Gold Coast welcomed both David Swallow and dual-Brownlow winner Gary Ablett Jr. back Saturday, and apparently that was all they needed, as they annihilated the North Melbourne Kangaroos 125-70 (and it wasn't that close). We talked about St Kilda's 110-point whipping of Essendon, but the West Coast Eagles beat up on Melbourne as well, winning 114-60. Brisbane held up against league-leader Fremantle for three quarters, tied throughout in wet, messy conditions that made it a tackler's paradise (more tackles were made in this game than every game ever except one (a game (there was a Richmond/Port game in 2010 with an unimaginable 258 tackles, or one every 25 seconds or so. Ridiculous.) Unfortunately, there are four quarters, and Freo scored seven goals to one in the last to win, 84-48.  

The Adelaide / Geelong game was cancelled, but the stadium was opened for fans to come onto the field and pay their respects, kick the football around parts of the field, and share their grief with other mourners. Adelaide is presumed to be back to work next week, with a game at West Coast on Saturday evening.

This week's prognostications...

For round 14 of the Australian footy season...

- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long. 

For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...

- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.

Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself.  On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!

From ESPN Stats & Info, on Saturday:

When SMU returned from Death Penalty in 1989, Mustangs’ first win was 31-30 over UConn. SMU beat Huskies today to avoid winless season.

1:55pm - 6 Dec 14 

We never covered how the predictions went this weekend...

...so here we go!

FBS games: Oregon beat Arizona BIG, 51-13 (point Vegas)...Marshall barely edged La-Tech (point us)...Connecticut not only lost to the spread but lost outright to previously winless SMU, 27-20 (point us)...Alabama whupped Missouri in the end, 42-13 (point them)...and we were correct to choose Ohio St over Wisconsin (they squeaked by the Badgers 59-0! - point us!) ----- Score: Vegas 2, FF 3!

FCS games: There were two on our "disagreement" list - we were correct in thinking that Sam Houston would give Jacksonville St fits; they did, and won 37-26. However, Illinois St handled Northern Iowa with ease, 41-21. So ------ Score: Vegas 3, FF 4!

NFL games: Going down the five games we marked (wish we'd thought to mark the Detroit/Tampa discrepancy; we would've won that one!)... St. Louis blanked the Redskins, 24-0 (point them)...the Giants wiped out the Titans, 36-7 (and knocked Tennessee to the Bottom slot, H32; point them)...we were right to think the Saints were in trouble, but even we didn't expect the offensive ineptitude we saw from a Drew Brees-led offense (point us)... Although Arizona won, they only won by three, so by a hair, (point Vegas)...and the Raiders dispatched their cross-bay rivals with ease, 24-13; (point FF). ------ FINAL Score: Vegas 6, FF 6. (Like I said...wished we'd claimed that Detroit game!)

The NFC's mathematics problem...

Take a look at the NFC rankings in particular this week, and their records...

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11

As we see it, there are SIX teams in the NFC who are head and shoulders above the rest - six teams in slots #1-9 in the FF rankings (and basically everyone else's, too), six teams with at least nine wins already, and the next team in the conference doesn't show up until Tier E, #19! With six playoff spots and six good teams, this should be easy...

EXCEPT for the GOSH-DARNED SOUTH Division!

Take another look at where the teams in each division are (we'll just show you the NFC this time...), highlighting the six leaders and the NFC South:

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11

So, there are TWO teams from each of THREE divisions (meaning there will be THREE non-division winners among the six), while the best of the NFC South teams comes in at #22, with #23, #24, and #30 close behind. In fact, if Atlanta loses to the Packers tonight (as expected - they're two TD underdogs), it will be mathematically impossible for ANY team in the division to have a winning record this year.

Therefore, we're already guaranteed that a nine-win team will stay home in the NFC (more likely a 10 or 11 win team), while the NFC South winner not only goes to the playoffs, but HOSTS a game! 

We are NOT the Big 12 - we will NOT change the rules in midstream. However, we would like to recommend a rule change starting next year...

"No team may participate in the playoffs if their record is under .500."

You can't say at .500, as much as you'd like to, because it's possible you won't have six teams out of sixteen over .500. (In fact, it's theoretically possible for the entire league to be 8-8, so under that version of the rule NO ONE goes to the playoffs. But that's not very likely.)

But under .500? Easy. "If a division champion is under .500, then its spot goes to the first wild card team; the second team moves up to the #5 slot, and a third wild card team is entered into the #6 slot."

"Furthermore, if the entire conference is putrid and there are not six teams in a particular conference with .500 records or above, then all empty slots in that conference will be filled with the next available teams from the opposite conference." (That's the way the CFL does it already! That's how British Columbia got into the playoffs instead of 8-10 Toronto!) "Hence, the #7 team in the opposing conference takes the #6 slot in the putrid conference, assuming one open slot."

And, just in case..."If somehow, there are NOT six teams with records of .500 or above available at all," (and it IS theoretically possible: what if there are five teams who go 14-2? There'll be a lot of losses to spread around in the league!), "then ALL empty slots are treated as BYES, and the opposing team gets a walkover into the next round." Wouldn't THAT be a fascinating turn of events! How serious are you about not allowing 7-9 teams into your postseason? 

("Alternatively, if you want to wuss out and take the money and run instead, then on a 3/4 vote of the league owners, the previous paragraph may be waived on a one-year basis IF there are not twelve eligible teams to fill the twelve available spots. Wusses.")

Hey, Big 12! The problem is NOT your lack of a title game!

We would like to respectfully disagree with the pundits and talking heads who are making that "pivotal thirteenth game" the reason neither TCU nor Baylor are out there preparing for the first college playoff. 

That's not the problem, boys. 

The problem, frankly, was the way you tried to jack the system.

The Big 12 had a system in place for determining a champion. It was in their by-laws. It's still on their website. If you watch college football on television, you know what it was... head-to-head:

"Ten Teams...Nine Games...One True Champion."

Unless, of course, that system would have made Baylor the true champion, when the committee had made clear on December 2 that TCU was their darling. They were afraid that if TCU wasn't a conference champion, as the committee's rules said was fearfully important (and you know how important existing rules are!), the Frogs would get locked out at the last minute.

So, they cheated. At the expense of their own member school, Baylor.

Under the long-standing rules of the Big 12, the team with the best head-to-head record among those tied for the lead at the end of the season is the "One True Champion". Since Baylor outscored TCU 61-58 when they played earlier this year, Baylor would therefore be the champion. 

Can't have that, can we?

So, they hastily amended their rules: All teams with equal conference won-loss records are co-champions. 

TA-DA! Now, TCU's a conference champion. And, conveniently, so's Baylor, if they happen to have the chance to pass Ohio St (underdogs to the Badgers, if you can believe that now) or Florida St (always a threat to lose, even if they never do). I'm sure the Big 12 bigwigs patted each other on the back for their extreme cleverness. 

And I've never been prouder of a committee in my life. For when they met this weekend, I'd lay odds now that they looked at each other and started the conversation with, I sure hope we can take the other four conference champs after the Big 12 pulled THAT stunt this week...

Would they have left both of them out if one of the other four had lost? No, almost certainly not. Would they have bent the rules to fit their mood, as the Big 12 had done? Certainly not. But I'll wager that, deep in their secret heart, they're all happy with the message that was sent.

We are the Supreme Court of FBS football. Don't mess with us. ("Mess" isn't the work I want, but I'm a Christian and this is a family website.)

Ohio State made it easy for them, of course, by annihilating a top 15 team with their third string QB 59-0. Their own statement of "we start fresh every week" works to their advantage as well; moving TCU from 3rd to 6th wasn't so crazy then.

SO....
Does the Big 12 need a conference title game? NO. (This was more interesting.)
Does it need better non-conference scheduling. YES. Vehemently, YES. 
Did the CFP Committee send them a message? 

Depends on whether they understand it or not...

Our pro football tiers and rankings for Week 14...

The biggest change at the top of the rankings is the emergence of the defending champs in Tier A, the Seattle Seahawks. Their threat is real - just ask Arizona and San Francisco!

At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders have worked their way out of the dungeon, and left the Tennessee Titans at the bottom, following their evisceration at the hands of the New Jersey Giants. 

In between, the continuing demise of the 49ers and the Saints mystifies, and the continued bunched success of the AFC North invites a host of "what ifs?" for folks like us to ponder!

FF rank	Team	Div	OvRecord	ConfRc	DvRec
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3	6-3	4-1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3	7-2	2-1
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3	8-1	4-0
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4	6-2	2-1
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4	7-3	4-0
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4	5-4	3-0
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4	6-4	2-2
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3	7-2	2-1
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4	7-2	3-0
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5	4-5	2-3
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5	7-3	3-2
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1	5-4	2-2
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5	6-4	2-2
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6	6-4	3-1
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6	6-3	2-1
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6	5-4	1-3
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6	4-6	3-2
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6	4-6	2-2
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7	4-5	2-2
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6	6-4	1-3
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7	5-5	0-4
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7	5-4	4-0
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1	4-6	2-2
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8	4-5	2-2
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8	4-5	1-3
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9	2-7	1-3
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10	1-8	1-2
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11	2-7	0-4
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11	1-8	1-3
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11	1-8	0-4
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11	1-8	0-3
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11	2-7	1-3

Mr. Harbaugh? A little friendly advice...

If your job is already in jeopardy, if rumors linking you to Michigan and every other available job are still running rampant, if your team looks so bad against Seattle last week that your owner apologizes to the fans, and then if your San Francisco 49ers lose to the stinkpot across the bay that is the Oakland Raiders, giving them their biggest victory (a mere eleven points) in two years? 

Don't walk straight to the Oakland Raiders majority owner Mark Davis after the game for a "chat". Bad mojo.

Imagine for a moment it's 2013...

...or ANY year of the BCS era, for that matter. This year, we're all debating whether TCU, Ohio St, or Baylor is the fourth "best"/"most deserving" team in the country. (By the way, to our surprise, it seems as though ALL the pundits this morning agree with us that the Buckeyes are the winners here, and many of them also hold the same measure of contempt for the Big 12 for trying to jazz their OWN system to get the Frogs in.)

But if it's LAST YEAR? There are THREE deserving teams - Alabama, Oregon, Florida St - and TWO spots in the championship game. Who would YOU leave out?

The polls would say FSU.
The committee would apparently say FSU.
The computers all seem to say FSU.
The "eye test" certainly seems to say FSU gets left out.

Would YOU have the guts to leave out the defending national champions, the 13-0 ACC (Power 5) conference champs on a 29-game winning streak, OUT of the title game, or would you leave out one of the two (clearly superior, to be frank) other conference champions, Alabama or Oregon, out, thereby leaving open the very real probability that you just singlehandedly chose the champion in advance by which of them had the chance to defeat FSU?

Glad it's not 2013!

So, let's assume Boise finishes off Fresno tonight...

...(and it's 28-0 in the third quarter), what will our "final" FF tier-rankings look like? And, therefore, what do WE think the big bowls should look like when they're announced tomorrow?

Rank     Team                         Conf  Rec     Conf rec

A1	Oregon	pac	12-1	9-1
A2	Alabama	sec	12-1	8-1
A3	Florida St	acc	13-0	9-0
A4	Ohio St	b10	12-1	9-0
A5	TCU	b12	11-1	8-1
A6	Baylor	b12	11-1	8-1
B07	Mississippi St	sec	10-2	6-2
B08	Michigan St	b10	10-2	7-1
B09	Georgia Tech	acc	10-3	6-3
B10	Ole Miss	sec	9-3	5-3
B11	Kansas St	b12	9-3	7-2
B12	Auburn	sec	8-4	5-3
C13	LSU	sec	8-4	4-4
C14	Georgia	sec	9-3	6-2
C15	Missouri	sec	10-3	7-2
C16	Arizona	pac	10-3	7-3
C17	UCLA	pac	9-3	6-3
C18	Arizona St	pac	9-3	6-3
D19	Oklahoma	b12	8-4	5-4
D20	Wisconsin	b10	10-3	7-2
D21	Clemson	acc	9-3	6-2
D22	USC	pac	8-4	6-3
D23	Boise St	mw	11-2	8-1
D24	Minnesota	b10	8-4	5-3
E25	Nebraska	b10	9-3	5-3
E26	Louisville	acc	9-3	5-3
E27	Texas A&M	sec	7-5	3-5
E28	Arkansas	sec	6-6	2-6
E29	Duke	acc	9-3	5-3
E30	Colorado St	mw	10-2	6-2

We did what we suspect the committee MIGHT do (DESPITE all of OUR protests to the contrary over the last five days!) and LEAPFROG Ohio St over TCU (as we said, no matter what the committee's rankings said, Florida St was safe with a win, or there would be a nationwide manhunt for dead committee members).

We saw Ohio St take their third-string quarterback and do the same thing to freak'n Wisconsin that the Frogs did to 2-10 Iowa St, at home nonetheless... It's completely conceivable that the committee put OSU five so that if they were to win weakly with a backup at QB (the SAME backup they'd have in the playoffs), they could leave them OUT of the playoff with impunity. 

Here's another factor we take seriously here as Christians; it remains to be seen if it comes into play tomorrow. The Big Twelve blatantly changed its own rules last week to try to sneak TCU into the playoff. Despite their rules (ratified THIS SUMMER!) saying that head-to-head alone decided the conference champ, they knew the committee had insisted that conference champions would get first priority. Without the change, TCU was NOT a conference champ. Now they are. POOF! We are hopeful that a committee with people like Condoleeza Rice on it is ethical enough not to reward that kind of chicanery. Ohio St is an authentic conference champion. (So are Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St.) There's your four playoff teams. DONE.

What about the other bowls?

Automatic bids: Baylor (Big 12 champion, by the 'real' definition), and Boise St (Group of Five highest ranked champion).

Next teams in: TCU, Mississippi St, Michigan St, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, and Kansas St. (Your mileage may vary. These teams are much more subject to flux, as are their bowl placements.)

Bowl placements (the other four are best guess only):

Sugar Bowl (playoff): Florida St (#3) v. Alabama (#2)

Rose Bowl (playoff): Ohio St (#4) v. Oregon (#1)

    [As an aside, the B1G, Pac-12, and SEC champs go to their "traditional" sites. Dumb luck.]

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) v. Baylor (Big12 champ)

Fiesta Bowl: Boise St (Group of 5) v. Kansas St (Big 12)

Cotton Bowl: TCU (Big12) v. Ole Miss (SEC)

Peach Bowl: Mississippi St (SEC) v  Michigan St (Big 10)

SO? What do you think? We'll post the other #31-128 in a separate post momentarily...