Sunday, May 3, 2015

Updated AFL predictions after five weeks...

Before the season began, we posted our predictions for the then-still-upcoming 2015 AFL season (Hawthorn 19-3, N. Melbourne with Sydney at 18-4...)

After five games, however, there are some patterns emerging that have changed our thinking, What you see here is information for the top thirteen projections: current record and rating, projected record at their bye (in either week 11, 12, or 13), and at the end of the season...

TEAM                            FFRS       Record-----------------------------------------------------------
                                        Rating      Current       At their bye       End of season      (Previous pred)
Hawthorn                     88.1            3-2                8-2                        19-3                        19-3
Fremantle                     79.3            5-0                9-2                        18-4                        15-7
Sydney                           71.9            3-2                 7-4                        17-5                        18-4
Western                         49.4           4-1                  7-3                        16-6                       9-12-1
Collingwood                 52.7            4-1                 9-2                        15-7                         7-15
Port Adelaide               71.3             3-2                10-2                      15-7                         15-7
Adelaide                         57.9            3-2                7-3                        15-7                       14-7-1
North Melbourne         57.3            2-3                5-7                        13-9                        18-4
Essendon                       48.6            3-2                7-4                        13-9                        11-11
GWS                                36.7           3-2                 7-5                        13-9                       10-11-1
West Coast                    66.4           3-2                 7-5                        10-12                      8-14
Geelong                          52.3           2-3                 5-7                         9-13                       13-9
Richmond                      49.0           2-3                3-7                          9-13                       12-10

[Lower down the ladder and not really worth projecting - Gold Coast, St. Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane, and Melbourne. Just assume none of them will break seven wins, lose fewer than fifteen, or be anything more than a spoiler the rest of the season.]

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