Thursday, June 4, 2015

Coming up on AFL week 10!

After nine weeks, with Fremantle still poised on top of the ladder, clear by two, we used the AFL Ladder Predictor to play the "what if" game...you know: What if things go the way we predict they will game by game? Who finishes where? 

Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania). 

Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.

> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.

> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.

> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)

Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.

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