Our selections in the AFL have been spot on all year; we've gotten 84 out of 116 correct this season, (75%) and sit in the top third of 1% in every grouping we're part of in the official AFL "tipping" contest (that's what they call predicting down under). So we know how to pick games.
In the CFL, we're 3 out of 8 so far. (Which is better than the odds makers at BoDog, the official CFL gambling site, who have only gotten two games right so far.) Despite what actually passes as worse than "flip a coin" prognostication, we're in the top half of the pool already, and moving up. Go figure.
Last weekend, in Round 2, the Eastern Division somehow went 4-0 against the "vastly superior" West, with Hamilton annihilating 1-0 Winnipeg 52-26 - and that was the LEAST of the four results! - "quarterbackless Montreal crushing defending champion Calgary 29-11 behind first-time starter Raheem Cato (of Marshall U fame); Ottawa matched its 2014 win total sixteen games early by upending the British Columbia Lions 27-16; and in the game of the young season so far, two incredibly proficient teams went toe-to-toe, slugging it out as long as theoretically possible - more on that in a moment - before Toronto upset Saskatchewan in the Mosaic in Regina 42-40 in double overtime. Two great writers to follow on Canadian football are Don Landry and Pat Steinberg on cfl.ca; here are their wrap-ups.
Backup QB Trevor Harris drove the Argonauts down for the tying score late in the fourth, and the teams traded touchdowns (and missed mandatory 2-pt conversions) in the first overtime together. In the CFL, OTs are run in the same basic Kansas City format the NCAA uses, except each possession starts from the 35 (the extra ten yards account for the goal posts being ten yards closer, on the goal line itself). They only allow two overtimes at most in a regular season game, and 2-pt conversions are required on all TDs. The Roughriders made their second TD to come within two of Toronto in the second OT, and then on the by-definition last play of the game, the Argos stopped Saskatchewan from converting to win the game by two.
So right now, Toronto and Ottawa are 2-0 in the East (Toronto has a 17 point higher rating at the moment), with Hamilton and Montreal a game back at 1-1. Calgary still leads the West, tied with Winnipeg at 1-1; BC and Edmonton each sit at 0-1, and the Roughriders have looked good two straight weeks and are 0-2 to show for it.
Next week, we see these likelihoods:
Edmonton over Ottawa 19-13 at home...Winnipeg at home over Montreal 28-23...Saskatchewan over BC 30-24 in Vancouver...Calgary edging Toronto 24-23 at home. The Hamilton Ti-Cats have the week off.
Showing posts with label Week 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 2. Show all posts
Monday, July 6, 2015
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
This week's prognostications...
For round 14 of the Australian footy season...
- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long.
For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...
- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.
Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself. On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!
- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long.
For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...
- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.
Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself. On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!
Monday, April 13, 2015
AFL Week 2 in Review/Preview Week 3
What a wild week of footy! Here are the game results from this weekend just concluded...
West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.
Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.
GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.
Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.
St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.
Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.
Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!
Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.
North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond.
THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS -
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.
West Coast 131, Carlton 62.
> The Eagles (1-1 record, 60.0 rating) have a reputation as "flat-track bullies", meaning that when they play lower-level teams, they win in this fashion...but when they play a game like they will next week, against neighbor-rival Fremantle, they can't keep that level of play up. The Blues (0-2, 32.0) are proving they don't have the horses they need to compete this year, and their season will be a battle to stay out of last place. They play Essendon next week.
Western Bulldogs 85, Richmond 66.
> The Doggies (2-0, 39.4) pulled off their second straight upset, outplaying a finals contender again and doing it with ferocity and speed. New head coach Luke Beveridge has brought a toughness to the team that will be tested when they play the two-time champion Hawthorn Hawks next week...but I'm not betting against them. We don't yet know what kind of team the Tigers (1-1, 50.9) are yet, having beaten failing Carlton and now lost to an upsurging Western - next week's game at Brisbane may not tell us much more, unless they lose.
GWS 101, Melbourne 56.
> One of the weirdest games I've ever heard. The Demons (1-1, 22.6) were demolishing the Giants (2-0, 34.4) in the first half, leading 45-12 just before the siren. Something then woke up within the orange and black, and they scored the next fourteen goals to run away with the game - literally. They switched to a speedy lineup, even taking their star goal kicker Jeremy Cameron out of the lineup for the most part, and simply outran the Demons. GWS actually went on an 86-4 scoring run - absolutely insane. Both teams look much better than last year, but they'll have to be: Melbourne plays at Adelaide, and GWS at cross-town rival Sydney.
Adelaide 90, Collingwood 63.
> The first game that went exactly to prediction - a 27 point victory for the team that looks like the presumptive challenger to Hawthorn and Sydney this year. Adelaide (2-0, 70.7) under new coach Phil Walsh has a toughness to them that they haven't had in recent years, and it's ironic that the rumors all off-season was that their superstar Patrick Dangerfield wanted to leave at year's end for Geelong. Right now, that looks foolhardy! Collingwood (1-1, 37.3) put up a good fight, and appears not to be quite the disaster that I thought they'd be this season. The Crows host Melbourne next week, and the Magpies host St. Kilda; both will be prohibitive favorites.
St. Kilda 104, Gold Coast 76.
> What the H#$% is wrong with Gold Coast? The Suns (0-2, 35.7) have not only been barn-whupped by two of the weakest teams in Melbourne and the Saints (1-1, 17.9), but they were never competitive. (One of the sportswriters pointed out that they're proving that former coach Guy McKenna must've been really good. They're doing nothing under Rodney Eade, supposedly a successful coach brought in to "take them to the next level".) They ironically go to play equally-struggling Geelong next week, while St. Kilda tries to build on this against Collingwood on Friday night.
Sydney 92, Port Adelaide 44.
> Any doubts about the Swans (2-0, 79.7) was removed Saturday night with a defensive slaughter of a potent Port team, holding them to just six goals. The "Bloods" were back in hard-tackling form, and the Power (0-2, 66.9) have to fight another top opponent next week in North Melbourne, also prelim finalists last year. (Game 4 is Hawthorn, so when it rains, it pours...) Sydney takes on similarly undefeated Greater Western Sydney in a cross-town rivalry made serious last year when the Giants beat them decisively in round 1.
Fremantle 104, Geelong 60.
> Like Port, Geelong (0-2, 54.1) has a rough schedule to start the year - Hawthorn and Fremantle, both of whom exposed the veteran Cats as slowing down in their old age. (Can they run on Gold Coast next week? It'll be a very interesting game.) Fremantle (2-0, 73.3) showed the last two weeks that they have the goods this year, especially with Brownlow favorite Nat Fyfe running rampant, beating finalists Port and Geelong back to back. Now they get West Coast and Sydney, so it won't slow down much for them. Hard to imagine seeing Geelong in last place on the ladder - my late wife is turning over in her grave! She LOVED the Cats!
Essendon 78, Hawthorn 76.
> If you only watch one set of highlights, this is the match to watch! Essendon (1-1, 55.9) led by 35 at half, the Hawks (1-1, 83.7) stormed back to lead by sixteen points with five minutes to play, and somehow the Bombers scored the last three goals, including two in the last 90 seconds, to pull out a "famous victory" (love that phrase!). After everything the Dons have been through the last year or two, especially the players who weren't involved in 2012's scandal, this was a great reward for patience. They play low-level Carlton next week, while the Hawks try to regroup against up-and-coming Western.
North Melbourne 133, Brisbane Lions 51.
> A rout from the word go...well, alright. Brisbane (0-2, 24.9) kicked three of the first four goals. After that it was all Kangaroos (1-1, 60.6), who bounced back from a rout of their own at the hands of the Crows last week. Jarred Waite kicked seven goals for the 'Roos, who host surprisingly winless Port Adelaide; Brisbane hosts Richmond.
THIS WEEK'S ROUND THREE GAME PREDICTIONS -
St. Kilda @ Collingwood (the line is 18-22 points Collingwood's way) - St. Kilda will cover!
Essendon @ Carlton (line is 20-34 points Essendon's way) - take Essendon with ease.
Melbourne @ Adelaide (line is 44-54 points for Adelaide) - and they'll clear even that.
GWS @ Sydney (Swans favored by 39-48) - GWS will cover the spread but lose.
Port Adelaide @ N. Melbourne (Port slightly favored) - take North to win outright.
Richmond @ Brisbane (Richmond by 12-20 points) - The Tigers will win by more than 20.
Western @ Hawthorn (Hawks favored by 40-48) - Western will make it close.
Gold Coast @ Geelong (line reads 24-32 for Geelong) - The Cats will win...
Fremantle @ West Coast (line is Freo by 10-22) - Fremantle's too good. Big win.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
..and AFL Week Two In Preview!
...and here are the match-ups for Week Two!
Fri) Carlton at West Coast
West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.
Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.
Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!
Adelaide at Collingwood
On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.
Sydney at Port Adelaide
This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!
St. Kilda at Gold Coast
On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.
Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.
Hawthorn at Essendon
Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.
Brisbane at North Melbourne
Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.
Fri) Carlton at West Coast
West Coast is a 12.5 point favorite, and 20+ by the ratings, but with the injuries it's hard to picture the Eagles beating many teams besides the Carlton Blues, who will be sinking towards the basement.
Sat) Western Bulldogs at Richmond
Richmond should be able to win this one as easily as last week's game over Carlton, but it still doesn't mean an 18-23 win (the betting line) would imply the Tigers are top 8 material.
Melbourne at Greater Western Sydney
Given where the two teams were last August, the spread of 11-15 points in GWS' favor is reasonable...given how the Demons played last week, though, a Melbourne victory is possible!
Adelaide at Collingwood
On the other hand, the 11.5 point spread flatters Collingwood immensely - Adelaide is a 27 point rating favorite, which is more likely.
Sydney at Port Adelaide
This should be a GREAT game! Port is a five point favorite due to home pitch advantage only, and each team had a challenge to get warmed up last week!
St. Kilda at Gold Coast
On paper, the GC Suns should be easy winners here...but then, they should have been easy winners LAST week, when Melbourne dominated them for four quarters and won by 26. Here, the Suns are 30-37 point favorites.
Sun) Fremantle at Geelong
Until very recently, this would be a no-brainer for Geelong - they've won 27 of the last 29 at home. But while the oddsmakers still have them as a 2.5 point favorite, we're taking and rating the Dockers as a six point fave.
Hawthorn at Essendon
Good luck, Essendon. The Dons ran out of gas last week, failing to score in the fourth quarter while Sydney scored nine goals for the victory. Hawthorn won't let them get out in front in the first place Sunday. The spread is 27-36 points.
Brisbane at North Melbourne
Here's an example of past performance outweighing last week's debacle at Adelaide: the Kangaroos, who were AWOL last week but one game short of the Grand Final last September, are 32 point favorites against a Brisbane Lions team which has looked much better in 2015. We like the Lions to beat the spread.
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