Prophecies In Phootball for the First Weekend of October 2015!

EDITOR'S NOTE: We've updated the errors pointed out to us, as well as the ones we noticed ourselves, but we've promised not to change any predictions except the one we had the line wrong on originally (BYU/U Conn).

Let’s start with the big one! The Australian Football League Grand Final!

At about 10:45 pm Friday night, Mountain Time, you can go to afl.com.au and listen to the Grand Final between the two teams who had the best seasons top to bottom, and fairly unanimously the two best teams right now – the West Coast Eagles and the defending champion Hawthorn Hawks. (You can also get the video if you pay for it.) 

The difference? Hawthorn’s been there. West Coast hasn’t. We expect a classic game – high flying, high scoring, and one where a couple of key mistakes by the Eagles and a couple of key cash-ins from the Hawks means that Hawthorn becomes only the fifth team to win three consecutive titles.

Hawthorn 110, West Coast 88.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 149-56 overall (72%); 122-83 against the spread (59% "ATS"). We also currently LEAD our segment of the afl.com.au “tipping” (predicting) finals pool with just the one game to go next week. Crossing our fingers!

CFL

It’s Week 15, with six to go, five games for most teams. Here’s our forecasts for the four games up this weekend…and the one on Tuesday!

1-Oct	Montreal (5-7)	20	Ottawa (7-5)	23
2-Oct	Calgary (10-3)	33	Hamilton (8-4)	35
3-Oct	Edmonton (9-4)	27	Winnipeg (4-9)	10
3-Oct	Saskatchewan(2-11)	14	BC Lions (4-8)	27

PLUS the game on Tuesday, between Ottawa and Toronto, where Ottawa’s five-day turnaround and being on the road slays them in the second half and Toronto pulls away to win, 28-15.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 32-24 overall (57%), 3-1 this week; 30-24-2 ATS (56%)

NFL

Going to divide these up into two categories: yes, we’re confident in our picks!, and throw a dart at the board type picks… Some we feel good about, and some we don’t! But we pick every game, every week, by gum, and we won’t hesitate now!

Confident in our picks:

Ravens (-2.5) at Steelers: Pittsburgh to win outright! Vick is a quality backup, and they can run the ball.

Texans (+6.5) at Falcons: Atlanta to cover and win big. They’ve got it going right now.

Raiders (-3) at Bears: Chicago to cover and win. Every metric we have says so.

Chiefs (+3.5) at Bengals: Cincinnati wins and covers: see Atlanta’s comments. They need to make hay!

Panthers (-3) at Bucs: Carolina in a landslide! Cam will get the calls because Tampa’s QB’s even younger!

Rams (+7) at Cardinals: Cardinals by more than 7. The best team in football not owned by a town.

Vikings (+7) at Broncos: We think Denver has it figured out now. Broncos to cover.

Saints (-5.5) at Cowboys: I don’t care who QBs Dallas, the Saints are a mess. Dallas wins outright.

Throw a dart, flip a coin:

Jets (-1) “at” Dolphins in London: Jets win. We think.

Giants (+6) at Bills: We’re taking Buffalo and giving the points.

Jaguars (+9.5) at Colts: It just seems too high for the off-kilter Colts right now. Jax plus the points.

Eagles (-3) at Redskins: When in doubt, bet against the Redskins.

Browns (+7.5) at Chargers: That extra half-point tipped us towards the Browns to cover.

Packers (+9) at 49ers: Plus nine? That seems like a lot… We’ll take SF…no, we can’t. Packers.

Lions (+10) at Seahawks: Plus TEN? THAT’S too high. I think. Lions to cover only.

Guaranteed:

The Patriots will NOT win this weekend! And the Titans will NOT lose!

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 30-17 straight up, 30-17 against the spread this season. (Both 64%.)

NCAA FBS:

AWRIGHT! The conference schedule is well underway starting this week, and there are some really lousy games in conference…and some really GREAT ones, too! Let’s give you the highlight games first, and then hit the rest of the conference games:

ACC – The highlight “ACC” game involves the conference’s new “adjunct” member, Notre Dame, coming to SC to play Clemson. The Irish are favored by half-a-point…take Clemson to win.

Other interesting games include BC @ Duke (-6.5) [take Duke to cover], Louisville @ NC State (+4.5) [NC State will win outright], North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-7) [Tech by double digits], Pitt @ VaTech (-4.5) [VT covers], and Miami goes out of conference to play @ Cincinnati (+6) [Miami covers easily].

On the flip side, there’s also Florida St @ Wake Forest (+19), which isn’t enough…take FSU -19.

B1G – The highlight game? Well, there really isn’t one…Maybe it’s Minnesota @ Northwestern (-5), which would have been tilted the other way before the season. Now? Take the Wildcats -5.

Other games? Indiana @ Ohio State (-21) [hmm…tough call. In the end, OSU gets a cheap TD to cover], Michigan @ Maryland (+14) [easy: Wolverines are hot. Michigan and points.], Purdue @ Michigan St (-22) [Sparty will cover], Army @ Penn St (-26.5) [PSU wins big, but not THAT big!], Nebraska @ Illinois (+6.5) [we’re backing the Illini to cover only], and Iowa @ Wisconsin (-6.5) [don’t trust the Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover].

Big XII – To us, the best game of the Big 12’s weekend is West Virginia @ Oklahoma (-6.5). We’re bullish on the Sooners (we’ve got them in Tier A!) but WVU is good enough to keep it close. We say OU wins but WV covers.

The rest of the slate is full of interesting games, too! At the bottom end, Kansas @ Iowa St (-16) for the “wooden spoon”, as the Aussies would say. [too close to call! Can Iowa St push past sixteen? Can they SCORE sixteen? We were wrong last week siding with Kansas; let’s side against them and go for ISU to cover.], Baylor and Texas Tech (+15.5) in Jerryworld [Baylor runs up the score], Kansas St @ OK St (-8.5) [K-State wins outright!], and Texas @ TCU (-15) [poor Longhorns. This is all they need. If TCU wins by a lot more than 15, as we think they might, Charley Strong may not survive the weekend.].

PAC-12 – Our fave game this weekend is Arizona @ Stanford. We’ll get to see who and what’s real – is Stanford as good as the beatdown they gave USC? Is Arizona as weak as they looked last week? The line is Stanford -14, which is too many: Arizona covers but the Cardinal wins.

Other games are varied, some good, some dull: Washington St @ Cal (-19) [gut feeling: Golden Bears cover], Oregon @ Colorado (+8) [everyone’s down on Oregon, but Colorado can’t do to them what Utah did – take OU in a smackdown of frustration], and Arizona St @ UCLA (-13.5) [we have it higher on every metric – take UCLA!].

SEC – The BIG ONE! Alabama breaks its 72-game streak of being favored, going to Georgia (-2.5). Our metrics are all over the place on this one, and honestly we’re just looking forward to watching the game! We’re siding with Georgia, for an irrational reason: Mark Richt is the best Christian in the coaching fraternity, and we’d like to see him get “over the hump” this year, so to speak. Terrible theory, but it’s our blog, and we’ll do as we please!

The other games should be fun, too: Ole Miss @ Florida (+7.5) [Ole Miss is too good], Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky(-26) [let’s say EKU stays close!] South Carolina @ Missouri (-3.5) [Mizzou covers], Arkansas @ Tennessee (-6) [our tiers have the Vols by 15!], Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee (-0.5) [should be a great game! We like Vandy – they’ve played well in their close games!], San Jose St @ Auburn (-19.5) [can’t believe the line’s only 19.5! Double it.], Eastern Michigan @ LSU (-44.5) [depends completely on your belief as to when they call off the Tigers…], and Mississippi St @ Texas A&M (+7) [can’t believe A&M’s not favored at home! Take the Aggies to win!].

The American! – You have to put the exclamation point in there! Sounds prouder! No real close games, but the best one involves new member Navy hosting military rival Air Force from the MWC, with the Naval Academy four point favorites. The winner of the round-robin tournament each year (including Army) wins the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, and these two teams are the overwhelming favorites, given Army’s hard times. In Annapolis, we believe in the Naval Academy to cover and take the trophy.

Elsewhere, UCF @ Tulane (-2) [wrong! UCF should win by about a TD!], East Carolina @ SMU (+5.5) [SMU’s better than they were last year – they should be closer. But we’ll hold our breath…], Memphis @ USF (+9.5) [double it. Memphis by 19 or more.], Temple @ Charlotte (+23.5) [we have faith in Temple. Lay the points.], UConn @ BYU (-19.5) [it's going to be a bit more - 20-30 point win for BYU], Houston @ Tulsa (+6) [double it: Houston by 12 or more].

Conference USA – By far, the most interesting and pivotal game is Western Kentucky @ Rice (+8), and as much as we’d love to see WKU run this string out, more than a TD’s too much. Rice to cover.

UTSA @ UTEP (+3.5) [El Paso wins this battle of initials], North Texas @ Southern Miss (-16) [too high – UNT covers], UL-Lafayette @ Louisiana Tech (-19) [also too high – ULL covers], Old Dominion @ Marshall (-19.5) [the Herd may not be Thundering like in years past, but they’ll thunder past that by halftime], and FIU @ U Mass (-3.5) [take Florida International to WIN outright].

#MACattack! – the hashtag is legally required… Several games of note, and we’ll single one out in each division: Bowling Green @ Buffalo (+9.5) in the East, and BGSU wins by LESS than 9; and Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (+2) in the West, and we like NIU to win by much MORE than that.

The rest of the slate sees Ohio @ Akron (+2.5) [Ohio wins and covers], Miami-Ohio @ Kent St (-10.5) [too high – take Miami to cover], Toledo @ Ball St (+6.5) [it’s Toledo’s year – take them every time], and, to review, U Mass loses to FIU and Eastern Michigan routed by LSU. 

Mountain West – The battle for second in the Mountain division takes place in Logan, where Colorado St plays @ Utah St (-4.5). With QB gone, we’re leaning towards CSU to cover at least, although neither will be able to handle Boise in the weeks to come.

Speaking of which, Boise’s favored at home against Hawaii by 24.5? Yet every metric says it’ll be more than that, so take the Broncos on the Blue. New Mexico St @ New Mexico (-12.5) [NMSU is possibly the worst team in the FBS...; lay the points], Wyoming @ Appalachian St (+25.5) […unless it’s Wyoming. Lay the points.], UNLV @ Nevada (-6.5) [yes, it’s a rivalry, yes, throw the records out; bet Nevada-Reno and lay the points], and the other important game of the weekend in the MW, Fresno St @ San Diego St (-9) [too high: Fresno should keep it closer than nine points]. A reminder – Air Force loses to Navy, and SJSU loses at Auburn.

Sun Belt – The most interesting game won’t have much bearing on the title race, but South Alabama @ Troy (-6) has predictions all over the board. We’re going with our tier metric, which gives Troy the advantage.

Besides App St beating Wyoming and UL-Lafayette trailing LaTech, look for Idaho @ Arkansas St (-20) [Red Wolves cover], Georgia Southern @ UL-Monroe (+6) [GASO covers easily], and Liberty at Georgia St (+7) [which team knows how to win? Liberty covers].

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 281-64 (81%) straight up, 188-155-2 against the spread (55%) this season.

NCAA – FCS

Here are the key games throughout the Division 1-AA (FCS) realm for this first weekend of October, and our predicted victors are in underlined boldface:

Missouri Valley –  Indiana St @ Missouri St by 5, North Dakota St @ South Dakota St by 3, Northern Iowa @ Illinois State by 5, Southern Illinois @ Western Illinois by 1, and Youngstown St @ South Dakota by 4.

Big Sky – Idaho State @ CalPoly SLO by 11, Montana @ UC Davis by 13, Montana St @ Northern Arizona by 9, North Dakota @ Portland St by 11, Northern Colorado @ Sacramento St by 11, Southern Utah @ Weber St by 1.

Colonial – Elon @ New Hampshire by 17, Stony Brook @ James Madison by 13, Maine @ Richmond by 14, William & Mary @ Delaware by 11, Albany @ Holy Cross by 4

Southland – Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian by 8, Northwestern St @ Incarnate Word by 7, Sam Houston St v Stephen F Austin by 17, Lamar @ SE Louisiana by 1.

Big South – Alabama A&M @ Coastal Carolina by 34, Bryant @ Monmouth by 6, and Presbyterian @ Western Carolina by 3.

Southern Conference – Wofford @ Mercer by 7, Bucknell @ VMI by 1, McNeese St @ Nicholls St by 31, and South Carolina St @ Furman in overtime.

Northeast Conference – Central Connecticut St @ Duquesne by 18, St. Francis @ East Tennessee St by 3, and Wagner @ Robert Morris by 6. 

Ohio Valley – Eastern Illinois @ Austin Peay by 21, Mississippi Valley St @ Jacksonville St by 41,  Murray St @ SE Missouri St by 14, UT-Martin @ Tennessee Tech by 4.

Pioneer – Drake @ Campbell by 6, Dayton @ Stetson by 19, Jacksonville @ Morehead St by 18, Marist @ San Diego by 13, and in the game matching the two lowest ranked teams in all 253 Division I possibilities, somehow both Valparaiso @ Davidson will lose! (All right…Davidson loses 2-0.) 

Ivy League – Rhode Island @ Brown by 16, Columbia @ Princeton by 24, Dartmouth @ Penn by 17, Georgetown @ Harvard by 27, Yale @ Lehigh by 7.

Patriot League – Fordham @ Lafayette by 13, Colgate @ Cornell by 11, and we’ve covered all the others (Bucknell over VMI, Georgetown loses to Harvard, and Lehigh to Yale).

MEAC – Bethune-Cookman @ NC Central by 5, Florida A&M @ Savannah St by 3, despite being 0-4 themselves, Morgan St @ Delaware St by 7, NC A&T @ Hampton by 7, Norfolk St @ Howard by 5, and we mentioned SC State and Furman too close to call in regulation.

SWAC – Alabama St @ Texas Southern by 3, Alcorn St @ Ark-Pine Bluff by 18, and Grambling St @ Jackson St by 9.

There you have it – EVERY division 1 game predicted this time…not just “the ones we want”. Let’s see how we do!