It's finally here! The first slate of American football games hits the airwaves tomorrow night, and from here until January we'll have solid football available to us every five-day weekend (and even a few Tuesdays and Wednesdays in November, thanks to the MAC)! We'll keep track of our projections and predictions so you can keep us honest, just like we have for Aussie footy (138-50 so far this season straight up, 110-78 against the spread) and Canadian football (23-19 so far, in a season where the oddsmakers themselves are under .500!). Alas, we're already zero-and-one in college football, having forecast the defending champions to win in Missoula last weekend, when the Grizzlies came from behind in the last seconds to win. While we were personally happy to see UM victorious...it still goes in our loss column. Luckily, we NEVER bet money, and we don't recommend you use our prognostications to bet money, either! Gambling is an addiction for too many people, and if you're one of those for whom it becomes a slippery slope, don't even touch the betting window. These predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
Let's get the internationals out of the way first...
AFL) The three matches of interest are Richmond over North Melbourne (by more than the 7.5 spread); Adelaide over Geelong (by more than the 12.5 spread), and Port Adelaide over Fremantle, although I wouldn't bet on Freo's outcome this week as they've publicly said they're resting everyone of import this round with first place locked up. In other news, Hawthorn may not cover the 87 point difference our ratings have them over Carlton, but they'll win with their eyes closed; Sydney wins with ease over Gold Coast and West Coast over St. Kilda, but neither by the 50.5 spread. Western, Collingwood, and GWS will all win and cover against Brisbane, Essendon, and Melbourne.
CFL) The headline matches take place on Labor Day Monday, when we predict Hamilton over Toronto by 13 and Calgary over Edmonton by 6, which would place both winning teams firmly in control of their divisions with eight games to go in the season. On the undercard, we see Montreal hosting and beating BC by five, and Saskatchewan getting its first win, inspired by the fresh new coach, defeating Winnipeg by one.
As for the NFL) You're kidding, right? Talk to us next week.
NCAA) HERE WE GO!!!! There are FOUR tier I versus tier I games (using last year's rankings as a starting point) in the very first week ("Week Zero", but 126 of the 128 FBS teams play this weekend!). We see...
Alabama over Wisconsin (by more than the 10 point spread); Texas A&M over Arizona St (by more than 3), Auburn over Louisville on Sunday (and beating the 10.5 points), and Ohio St annihilating poor Virginia Tech on Monday night by more than the 11 point Vegas line, and probably more than the 22 point Sagarin rating difference as well, no matter who plays QB.
There are TEN other games in our list of "featured" matchups this weekend, all involving two top-notch teams. Here's our thoughts on them:
North Carolina will UPSET South Carolina, despite the 2.5 spread the other way.
Utah should edge Michigan, but not by 5.5 points - maybe a field goal?
TCU is favored by 14 over Minnesota, but we see the Gophers much more competitive than that.
Boise St's 11.5 spread over Washington, coached by former BSU boss Chris Petersen, is too high.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, will handle Texas by 10+ points, going away.
UCLA / Virginia will be over in the Bruins' favor by halftime; give the points.
BYU might not beat Nebraska, but they'll be closer than six.
Stanford, au contraire, wipes out Pat Fitzgerald's dreams at Northwestern, twelve points be hanged.
Temple should stay right with Penn State and at least beat the six point spread.
And finally, on Sunday, Marshall plays its second toughest opponent of the year - lowly Purdue - and wins by more than a TD; more likely four. That's why even 12-0 won't be enough for the Herd.
Next, we're going to look at ELEVEN of the more "interesting" match-ups farther down the food chain in Division I. There are some games where it may look like a bodybag game, but watch out, home favorite!
Georgia Southern is NOT a twenty point 'dog to West Virginia. I'm considering taking them straight up...Western Kentucky has actually moved to become a half-point favorite over Vanderbilt, and in fact they'll wipe the Commodores up by two TDs...UL-Lafayette went to a bowl game last year, and Kentucky didn't smell one. So why is UK a seventeen point fave?...Central Michigan won't upset Oklahoma, but they'll be more competitive than the Sooners want for an opener!...Same with Arkansas St at drunk frat party U (whoops) SC, who're too busy examining the ramifications of its off field issues to pay attention to the fact that ASU's got the same head coach for the first time in five years and will get out of the gates HOT this year...Eastern Washington, on the other hand, is in for a shellacking at the hands of their former QB and the Oregon Ducks....Finally in this category, is Hawaii an underdog to Colorado? Should anyone be an underdog to Colorado? Still, we're taking the Buffalo, because Hawaii's just that messed up.
Elsewhere, there's a fascinating bottom-of-the-ladder game where last year's Bottom Six champ, Georgia State, is actually favored against brand new FBS team Charlotte (by a TD). But even below THAT, two FBS teams play Saturday that have never played FOOTBALL before! East Tennessee St and Kennesaw St open up against each other, and someone's going to win their first game of football EVER (and the other team will probably go 0-12)...Also in the FBS, Chattanooga / Jacksonville State should be a great match-up; we're taking the Southern Conference champs over the Ohio Valley this go-round. Finally, our favorite team in the world opens their 2015 campaign in Fort Collins, Colorado: Savannah State should be a good bet to beat the Sagarin rating spread of 60+ points against Mountain West team Colorado State. But they won't...
Three games start the CONFERENCE slates this weekend - Montana has the chance to not only be the first 1-0 team in the country (which they are, as far as D1 is concerned), but also the first D1 team to be 1-0 in conference as well, and they should win over Cal Poly SLO in the Big Sky...In the SWAC, Prairie View A&M should beat Texas Southern, and the Southland season opens with Southeast Louisiana and Northwestern St. (betting the former to win on the road.)
There's a long list of much less interesting fodder, which we'll note without comment except to say that bold (and listed first) tells you who we think will WIN the game outright; and we're underlining the team who we favor against either the odds or the Sagarin rating spread (for games involving FCS teams, which Vegas doesn't post odds for).
Power Five conference team games: Boston College over Maine, Clemson over Wofford, Florida St over Texas St, North Carolina St over Troy, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Wake Forest over Elon, Duke over Tulsa, Georgia Tech over Alcorn St, Miami-FL over Bethune-Cookman, Richmond upsetting Maryland (!), Michigan St over Western Michigan, Rutgers over Norfolk St, Illinois over Kent St, Baylor by 70 over SMU, Oklahoma over Akron (not by 70, though), Okla St barely over Central Michigan, Cal over Grambling, Oregon St over Weber St, Washington St over Portland St, Arizona over UTSA, Florida over NMSU, Georgia over UL-Monroe, Missouri over SE Missouri St, Ole Miss over UT-Martin.
Group of Five conference team games: Cincinnati over Alabama A&M, East Carolina over Towson, UCF over FIU, USF over Florida A&M, Houston over Tennessee Tech, Memphis over Missouri St, Navy over Colgate, FAU over Tulsa?, MTSU over Jackson St, Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan, LA Tech over Southern, Rice over Wagner, Buffalo over Albany, Miami-OH may actually win a game playing Presbyterian!, Ohio over Idaho, Ball St over VMI, Northern Illinois will wipe out UNLV, Toledo over Stony Brook, Fresno St should beat Abilene Christian by 14+, Nevada over UC Davis, San Diego St has too big a spread to cover against crosstown San Diego of the Pioneer League, Air Force over Morgan State, New Mexico over Mississippi Valley St, Utah St should cover against Southern Utah, Wyoming over North Dakota, Appalachian St all over Howard, and South Alabama over Gardner-Webb.
There are only 21 games in which FCS teams play each other, and we normally don't predict very many of those games. We will mention a few, though, including our bet that Jacksonville does the weak sister Pioneer League proud and beats favored Delaware; that William & Mary can defeat Lefayette, that St. Francis-PA can handle Georgetown with ease, and that the student athletes from the military school The Citadel may get a chance to hone their obliteration skills against poor Davidson, owners of the worst Sagarin rating in Division 1.
(And there are eighteen games where an FCS team dips down into Division II to open the season. Ask me if I care.)
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